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    Tuesday, April 7, 2020

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing


    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 05:17 AM PDT

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    I lost $25,000 because of Chase JPM YouInvest's Options Review Policy

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 02:50 PM PDT

    I got into options because of the volatile market, did my due diligence. I signed up with Chase JPM as my brokerage: big mistake.

    Long story short, I bought some SNAP calls and NOK Puts during the last week of March.Later that week, both options shot straight up in value, SNAP call at ~5000%, and the NOK put at ~$8000 %, totaling in around $25,000 in profits.

    Picture Evidence: Imgur Snapshot of My Youinvest

    I tried to submit the order to Close, but Chase YouInvest gives me a message saying

    "Due to the Large Amount Orders Rule, your order will be reviewed."

    Guess what? They kept it under review status all day long, and eventually the contracts expired worthless.

    So I called customer support to ask them about this review process, and they said
    "Any Options orders that total in $5000 in transactions must be reviewed by our team".

    They refused to lift the review policy from my account, and 2 weeks since the incident still have not heard back about the $25000 loss.

    Do not use YouInvest, I am currently in the process of switch to ToS as well as eTrade and am not experiencing such issues.

    submitted by /u/gitpullhoes
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    Dow rallies 1,000 points as Wall Street rebounds from last week's sell-off

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 06:56 AM PDT

    Janet Yellen says second-quarter GDP could decline by 30% and unemployment is already at 12%-13%

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 07:54 AM PDT

    Saudi Arabia has bought 8% stake in world's biggest cruise operator Carnival for bargain basement price

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 12:32 PM PDT

    Pelosi reportedly tells Democrats next coronavirus relief package will top $1 trillion

    Posted: 07 Apr 2020 01:58 AM PDT

    During a private conference call with Democrats on Monday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said at least $1 trillion will be needed for the next coronavirus relief package.

    Last month, Congress passed a $2.2 trillion stimulus package, and Pelosi said the next bill will build onto that, people on the call told Bloomberg News. Pelosi said there will have to be more direct payments to individuals, extended unemployment insurance, and additional funding for food stamps and the Payroll Protection Plan, which provides small business loans.

    One lawmaker told Bloomberg News Pelosi also said the bill should help state and local governments, particularly in areas with no more than 500,000 residents. While the House isn't scheduled to be back in session until April 20 at the earliest, Pelosi said she wants the package passed this month. President Trump was asked on Monday evening about a second round of direct payments to Americans, and he said it is "absolutely under consideration." -Catherine Garcia

    https://theweek.com/speedreads/907275/pelosi-reportedly-tells-democrats-next-coronavirus-relief-package-1-trillion

    submitted by /u/hotrodfantasy
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    Weird that CNBC knows the reason behind every market move?

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 12:51 PM PDT

    "Market went up because the economy is booming". Two minutes later "market is going down because the booming market means there will be no rate cuts"

    So let me get this straight: people bought stocks --> market went up --> same people realized there won't be any rate cuts --> same people sell stocks --> market goes down.

    Conclusion: Either people are stupid or CNBC makes up any reason that could explain the market movement.

    How can anyone hate wall street, lol.

    submitted by /u/AbdulMK9
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    I made a self-updating Google Sheet with key economic and stock market data

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 02:25 PM PDT

    I included key economic data like unemployment, CPI, fed reserve effective rate, alongside basic stock market data (indices, stock futures, etc.)

    Google Sheets Link

    Let me know what other data I should input here that you would like to see. Also, I've never made something like this before so any advice or tips would be much appreciated.

    submitted by /u/woody2007
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    Seems like the market is expecting the quarantine to be over in May. But won't this simply result in another mass spread?

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 02:57 PM PDT

    The reason why the curve is flattening is because we are on a lockdown... no?

    I don't see the logic in saying because the curve has now flattened, it's okay to open back up everything again. It's like blocking a leak with a tape and saying "oh that stopped the leak. So it should be okay to remove the tape." without actually fixing the source of the leak.

    Unless we find a vaccine, develop herd immunity or spend long enough time in quarantine so the virus is completely eliminated, I can't imagine things going back to normal. I think as soon as we reopen everything again, we will see another surge of cases.

    I think the market expects everything to be blow over soon because we've reached the "peak" for now but aren't pricing in the fact that we will be impacted by Covid19 for far longer than May.

    submitted by /u/WokeCPA
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    Auto insurance companies return $800 million in premiums because no one is driving

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 03:51 PM PDT

    JAMIE DIMON WARNS: We’re getting a ‘bad recession’ plus ‘financial stress’ like the 2008 crisis

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 06:08 AM PDT

    What would you invest in during this pandemic if you were 18 ?

    Posted: 07 Apr 2020 03:53 AM PDT

    So i just turned 18 three days ago and have 11,600+ saved up, with us in the middle of a pandemic, school being closed, and me having money saved up while still a senior in highschool i see this as a great opportunity to start investing so what would you guys do if you were in my position and why? Tips/advice too please anything helps thanks

    submitted by /u/dondadaa35
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    Are you worried you missed the bottom?

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 05:36 PM PDT

    From reading this subreddit, it appears that most posters are still in cash/bonds or other non-equity holdings.

    The S&P 500 is now up 19% since March 23rd.

    Are you worried you missed the bottom? Are you planning to re-enter equities now, or are you committed to hoping for a new bottom?

    submitted by /u/SeveralTourist
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    The market reminds me of the sinking Titanic

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 03:05 PM PDT

    First of all we know that the market was moving faster than the safe speed and without safety measures because Trump wanted to brag about how great the "ship" is and how fast it can go.

    Then the first phase came. That was when the virus was spreading uncontrolled and fast in china but everyone was saying its just the flu and the market was reaching new heights everyday. This is similar to the titanic aproaching the iceberg while everyone, was partying, being oblivious to the imminent disaster.

    The second phase was the initial panic and the fastest market crash in history. That was the moment the ship hit the iceberg and the panic that caused.

    Now we are in the third phase. We had QE, stimulus bills etc and the curve seems to be flattening. Now everyone thinks that we avoided the worst. This is like when the crew sealed the lower compartments of the ship to stop the flooding and the passengers thought that it was just a scratch and everything is going to be ok.

    The next and final phase is when everyone will realise the true extend of the damage that keeps spreading and that the help won't come soon enough. This when we will trully reach the bottom.

    Obviously a sinking ship and the stock market look like they have no connection but I think that human psychology and the reaction to the disasters is the same.

    Or maybe the prolonged home confinement messed up my head and I don't know what I'm talking about so I'd like to hear other opinions.

    submitted by /u/Soniklyg
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    The Anatomy of the $2 Trillion COVID-19 Stimulus Bill

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 04:15 PM PDT

    "The CARES Act was passed by U.S. lawmakers last week with little fanfare. The act became the largest economic stimulus bill in modern history, more than doubling the stimulus act passed in 2009 during the Financial Crisis.

    Today's Sankey diagram is a visual representation of where the $2 trillion will be spent. Broadly speaking, there are five components to the COVID-19 stimulus bill:"

    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-anatomy-of-the-2-trillion-covid-19-stimulus-bill/

    submitted by /u/Cardamon1
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    Need an advice with Restaurant Brands International

    Posted: 07 Apr 2020 02:08 AM PDT

    So, I am looking at QSR (TSE) for a long-term investment, they seem to tackle the current crisis well. Did not see any negative press articles, publications, or complaints from suppliers/customers.
    Ang ideas where I can verify this? Any platforms like Reddit for suppliers, producers?

    Thanks in advance:)

    submitted by /u/NobleDeed
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    CNBC: Mortgage industry on the brink of collapse

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 04:44 PM PDT

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbdSEJCibe8&feature=youtu.be

    Absolutely massive cluster**** has been created by the forbearance of mortgages!

    submitted by /u/jasonhenderson23534
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    AMD best Moments

    Posted: 07 Apr 2020 02:41 AM PDT

    Gooood morning everyone! I have been lurking around for some time now and would like to give an input on the amd stock. Or rather a question to be precise. We've seen what this marked already did in the last few weeks. And most of us are on the same boat if I say this isn't over. But as always it's the same question. How do I time the market.... Amd has done some pretty decent movement before the virus. And also within the last 2.5y. I am looking forward to put in some money into this but I won't do it now. They haven't even been hit by any supply chain issues but that will come for shure. Also the earnings report is gonna sting a lot. My question is, do i wait until AFTER the report when everybody is in a bad sell-off mood or do I wait even longer? Has anybody a price target to get in or are you waiting for something else? Thank you in advance for your inputs and opinions. I am looking forward to hearing all of them. Stay safe and happy stocking

    Edit: typo

    submitted by /u/_Scrypto_
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    Default on margin loan called in by Goldman on Luckin shares

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 07:40 AM PDT

    The CEO and Chairman are having shares called in.

    "Following the occurrence of a default by Haode Investment Inc. (the "Borrower"), a shareholder of Luckin Coffee Inc. (the "Company") (NASDAQ: LK), under a US$ 518 million margin loan facility (the "Facility"), a syndicate of lenders, as secured parties under the Facility (the "Lenders"), has instructed Credit Suisse AG, Singapore Branch as security trustee, to exercise the Lenders' rights with respect to the collateral securing the Borrower's repayment obligations under the Facility. A total of 515,355,752 Class B ordinary shares and 95,445,000 Class A ordinary shares of the Company have been pledged to secure the Facility, including shares additionally pledged by an entity controlled by the family trust of Ms. Jenny Zhiya Qian, the Company's CEO."

    Assuming Goldman sells these on the open market, the float will more than double.

    submitted by /u/ahminus
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    Sentiments for 7th April 2020

    Posted: 07 Apr 2020 12:40 AM PDT

    Good news cheered the market and bad news was shrugged off as the shorts were sent running for cover. For now, the bear market rally is hurting the bears and that is a key feature of bear markets. The relentless printing presses of all the central banks of the world are driving asset prices higher and Gold is starting to exert its strength. The dominant trade will change as the crisis progresses. To be bearish stocks is to fight against the printing presses although the economic reality is on your side. Gold, however, has the printing presses and the economic reality which requires low interest rates and quantitative easing for a long time to come on its side.

    submitted by /u/trackrecordasia
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    Can someone explain to me why SIX has been gaining recently

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 07:10 PM PDT

    Who the shit is planning on going to Six Flags in the foreseeable future?

    Not only that they are going to miss out on all the end of the year class trips that schools usually do to amusement parks. Best case scenario the Parks are Opened by June. Then what? No one is going to want to go to a shit ass amusement park. Sales will be down 50 percent at least. There is no way they will be making their usual revenue until next summer.

    What in the unholy fuck do investors see in it?

    submitted by /u/UnwantedRelishMan
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    How would one go about valuing a Cannabis company

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 11:11 PM PDT

    A couple questions for valuing a cannabis company:

    Would a DCF be appropriate? I would feel that it isn't because overall financial performance is incredibly unpredictable due unknown demand, regulations and just being a new industry... hard to forecast free cash flow in the next ~5 years

    Obviously DDM is out of the equation but what about precedent transactions and comparable companies. What metrics and peer group would you use? For example, Canopy Growth in my opinion only has 2 true comparables (Cronos and Aurora) and even those companies are much smaller.

    On top of that, the majority of companies are unprofitable with predicted negative free cash cash flow for the foreseeable future, in this case would we want to use a residual model or a metric like P/Sales?

    submitted by /u/Accomplished_Sky
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    Bonds. What am I missing?

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 10:56 PM PDT

    The common advice is to include bonds in your portfolio. Even if you're several decades away from retirement. For example, Vanguard 2055 has 10% bonds. Looking up the importance of bonds, I see a lot of talk about less volatility and controlling risk. But I just don't get it. Is the point of keeping 10% of your portfolio in bonds just so that if the stock market crashes by 100% you still have some money to buy a bag of rice with? I can keep some cash in savings for that.

    It seems like putting anything in bonds while you're 30+ years out from retirement is a guaranteed way to make less money. I just don't understand. What does it provide except a small safety net if the entire financial market collapses? I must not be understanding.

    submitted by /u/JeanATannen
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    Opinion: Buying leveraged ETFs now and holding them for the next 3-6 months is a good idea, despite the warnings

    Posted: 07 Apr 2020 03:53 AM PDT

    Prove me wrong, please. I'm eyeing the SPXL S&P 500 3x Bull specifically. I'm three weeks new to investing, and I've seen the blanket warnings about holding leveraged ETFs much longer than a day. Volatility decay. I get it. But, volatility decay results in less yield for stable markets, not necessarily rising markets. The market is going to recover most of it's losses from February by the end of the year. Poor assumption?

    According to my research and --albeit amateur-- understanding, if the S&P 500 produces 30%+ return over a 6 month period, a 3x leveraged ETF will still yield more than that; maybe less than 90% but more than 30%. The exact amount depends on S&P 500's volatility rate or the standard dispersion for the period. Given the historical volatility of the ETF, and the recent volatility rate during the crisis, I think it's reasonable to assume the S&P index's volatility rate will be around 25% or less over the next 6 months. That would mean the leveraged fund's yield would be greater than the index's 30 or more percent. If the volatility rate were much greater than 25%, then yes, the leveraged fund could yield less than the index fund. I'm using the fund's volatility chart from its prospectus to do the formula math for me.

    ETF's prospectus ; http://direxioninvestments.onlineprospectus.net/DirexionInvestments//SPXL/index.html?open=Statutory%20Prospectus

    Am I missing something here?

    submitted by /u/Whiskey_Whistle
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    Why is the global stock market soaring today?

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 10:11 AM PDT

    What do the big investors know that Reddit does not I wonder? Any speculations?

    submitted by /u/freddyjohnson
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