Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- My Investment Checklist - Version 0
- The US reported less new cases of Covid (25k vs 34k the day before) and Italy + Spain seem to be slowing the spread. Could be good news for stocks
- Stocks are set to jump, with Dow futures pointing to 900 point gain
- Tip 1 of investing: Never Listen To Analysts
- What to make of President Trump's comments on possibly imposing substantial tariffs if oil producers cannot come to an agreement?
- Warren Buffett is MORE LIKELY to purchase an individual airline than sell all his airline positions.
- Am I silly to think MGM is bound to recover to at least $20 following the virus subsiding?
- One reason why bear markets lose steam as they continue, and why energy tanking on Monday will matter less than you think
- Robert Kiyosaki
- Europa's biggest stock markets open the week firmly in the green
- Economic Stagnation, Financial Corruption, Dying Industries, and a Need to Revolutionize.
- Recap of Last Week's Suspicious Insider Purchasing Activity
- Oil stocks
- Podcast recommendations?
- Finally, a Sunday where futures opened green
- Biogen Valuation
- Oil outlook for the coming week?
- Does anyone believe in Nokia anymore?
- Dec 2018 vs Now..
- How to trade on TYO (tokyo stock exchange) From Canada?
- When do we accept the bottom has come and gone?
- SCHV or SPYV
- The bull case
- True global exposure vs 3 fund method
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 05 Apr 2020 05:13 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| My Investment Checklist - Version 0 Posted: 05 Apr 2020 08:21 PM PDT All great investors say that you have to have an investment checklist. I'm not a very experienced investor, but through all of this volatility, I thought it would be important for me to formalize what I actually do before I buy a company. I put together this doc and figured I'd share it here in case someone else is interested in comparing their approach to investing. Comments are welcome! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 05 Apr 2020 10:33 PM PDT The lower number of new cases is only one day's worth of data for the US (still a possibility that it's just noise), but if this continues, then I think we have reached a point where downside is limited. It would show that we are capable of containing the virus. We may still have other economic consequences to deal with. Perhaps on and off quarantines until a vaccine gets distributed. But this is a very good sign in my opinion for anyone who is looking for long term buys. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks are set to jump, with Dow futures pointing to 900 point gain Posted: 05 Apr 2020 11:21 PM PDT
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| Tip 1 of investing: Never Listen To Analysts Posted: 05 Apr 2020 08:10 AM PDT Analysts don't know whether the market is going to go up down or sideways. Classic case is TESLA. No analyst called TSLA at $900 a share last year. Every time TSLA rallied they updated their price target. They litteraly do not know what the fuck is going to happen any more than you or I [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 05 Apr 2020 05:58 PM PDT I thought the threat of substantial oil tariffs sounded realistic enough. Does anyone have any early thoughts on what this might mean in terms of energy stocks prospects in the near term? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Warren Buffett is MORE LIKELY to purchase an individual airline than sell all his airline positions. Posted: 05 Apr 2020 09:50 AM PDT Here's some insight into Warren Buffett's selloff of Delta Airlines (DAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV). The backing away from airline stocks marks something of a reversal for Warren Buffett. The investor bought more Delta stock several weeks ago. Buffett told Yahoo Finance less than a month ago that "I won't be selling airline stocks." Why did Buffett sell so many shares of DAL and LUV yesterday? Thoughts below:
Here are three things Buffett may be doing in order of likelihood:
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| Am I silly to think MGM is bound to recover to at least $20 following the virus subsiding? Posted: 05 Apr 2020 09:59 PM PDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 05 Apr 2020 09:48 AM PDT Certain sectors get hit harder in various recessions, and some always get hit hard in all recessions (consumer cyclical for example), but as these sectors decline, they become a smaller and smaller piece of the S&P500 pie by market cap. So if Energy was 5% of the S&P prior to the downturn and gets cut in half, thats 2.5% off of the overall index. But now if it gets cut in half again it's only 1.25% off the overall index. Same with all the physical retail thats getting pummeled right now. Look at the market caps of all these companies, if you combine the market caps of all physical retailers together it doesn't even add up to an Amazon, Microsoft, or Google. Those companies were already the driving force behind the market and after this decline they are even more so the driving forces. Current Sector Weightings of the S&P https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/holdings/ Using the wayback machine to view the weightings on 5/12/2019 (almost 1 year ago) https://web.archive.org/web/20190512215632/https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/holdings/
Note Amazon is considered consumer cyclical even though it could be considered tech. So it is helping prop up that sector in a major way and even with that it has declined significantly in share. If you are wondering which companies fall where this is a good source: https://www.barchart.com/stocks/indices/sp-sector/consumer-discretionary Other note: at some point energy declining is more of a credit risk story, so it can drag down financial services stocks who have large energy exposure. We are this point now and have been there since the Saudi announcement that brought oil from $40 to $30 overnight. Just pointing out that the declines in energy stocks themselves have less effect on the S&P at this point. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 05 Apr 2020 11:54 AM PDT I rarely leave a post, but I must say that I completely disagree with Robert Kiyosaki's investing advice. After hearing multiple praises about him from motivational speakers to overly-enthusiastic individuals, I must speak my piece. I've read his book, tried the rat race game and almost signed up for his online class (with a small amount of at least USD$2,000/year). Almost all of his so-called stories about his investments have no evidence behind it, amassing his current wealth with the success of his book and psychoing individuals into get-rich seminars and tutorials. A quick Google search into his portfolio proves this. In recent news, he has posted a statement saying that we should buy gold, silver and bitcoin as the dollar is dying. Yes, gold and silver is considered an evergreen asset. But bitcoin? There's literally a team behind the screen punching and tweaking the numbers as they please. Or as I quote, "The price of bitcoin is determined by supply and demand". And to say "the dollar is dying" is a bold and incorrect statement. In this day and age, dollars have done the transition to digital banking. However, the value of it is still equivalent to a physical note. $50 in your bank is the same as $50 in your wallet. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Europa's biggest stock markets open the week firmly in the green Posted: 06 Apr 2020 01:56 AM PDT In the first two hours of the market opening, the biggest European markets have opened in the green. These include: FTSE (United Kingdom) +1.75% ... DAX (Germany) +3.70% ... AMX (Netherlands) +2.82% ... CAC 40 (France) +3.03% ... IBEX 35 (Spain) +2.40% ... MIB (Italy) +3.18% ... A reason for the rise could be the news that infection numbers in both Italy and Spain have been peaking and other countries like Denmark publicly announcing that they are looking to soften restrictions in the coming weeks. With the futures of the S&P500 also showing a significant rise in the market, we are looking at a start of the week on a green day. What are your predictions for the rest of the week with some big meetings and numbers reports coming out? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Economic Stagnation, Financial Corruption, Dying Industries, and a Need to Revolutionize. Posted: 05 Apr 2020 12:25 PM PDT Another week in the books, the more I learn, the more a clear answer seems to come into sight. This week I'm going to stay away from commodities/ other currencies to ideally keep any convolution in my post to a minimum. (While the state of crypto/gold plays into the big picture & the underlying concern of our fiat money failing in the coming months/years; For the time being we're going to assume that either - our gov't simply continues to shaft the common american with the debts they're currently incurring, or opt for the gold standard which would effectively act as a bailout for fiat-currencies.) Last week I had claimed that this market manipulation from the FED/Gov't would be enough to push our economy into a quick revolution in the short term expanding over the long term, which has become more and more apparent as simply too ambitious with the current 'drivers at the wheel.' The market manipulation has been enough to slow our decent, and I still stand by the claims that the gov't will come out on top following the crazy movements of the market; but, it surely hasn't boosted investor confidence enough for me to continue to accept the notion that 'we found bottom' in late March (@ 2.2K on the S&P, 18K on the DJI, & 7K on the NASDAQ.) Now, where do I view us economically on a Long-term, Macro-economic scale? This chart is what I'll be referencing when discussing my PoV & projections. [The blue line - our LT productivity output, a basic trend-line that's drawn on the fundamental principle that over the Long Term our economic productivity increases. Green - This line depicts the extended periods of Expansion & contraction that a can be seen on a LT chart above/below this productivity output trend line. Yellow - Depicts periods of 'Secular Bull markets' Purple Boxes - highlight periods of 'economic stagnation' (Essentially periods in time when the economy is buying into 'false hopes' rather than a true leg up in overall productivity.) Black lines - shows how the markets are legitimately at the same price point when they enter & exit these periods of stagnation. Grey line - probably don't need to explain, but my rough/projected trend line for the Dow Jones going into 2021.] To begin answering the large overhead question I must do so in pieces for maximum clarity: First, what exactly leads me to believe that we're in a period of 'economic stagnation?' Well without explaining every time-period on the chart, lets first look at the secular bull market which came before these last two decades to clarify what the basis for a secular bull market is.. What changed in 1982? The mainstreaming of computer technology & foundation of the 'computing revolution.' Computer Tech was front-lined not only commercially, but also more and more to residential consumers around this time; this truly boosted out economies production output significantly, a which boost lasted 18 years before productivity outputs began to visibly max out (growing revenues/expansions/number of successful companies.) Reaching our maximum economic productivity with the given tools in the economy is what opens the door to economic stagnation, and in turn this would mean that no improvement to these economic tools have been discovered/front-lined in the mainstream (Arguably, this is evident when dissecting the computing revolution & somewhat relates to our current situation - computers were invented in the 1950's but weren't implemented & capitalized on economically until the early 80's.) You may say, "but haven't new inventions come out since 2000?" Well, Yes and no; these innovations have primarily 'improved' civilian quality of life & have fueled consumers to spend more. This taken into consideration, you can see that the last 5 years of 'growth' has truthfully been more of a bubble than anything. (I'll explain the specifications of this bubble more in-depth shortly.) Our current bubble; quite literally could call it "the trump bubble," well the trump bubble mixed with the repeated shit practices from our Banks... To break this down, first I'll dive into what I'm addressing with the current state of our banks. Those that remember the 2008 financial crisis and the source of the collapse probably don't need the refresher & can skip this paragraph, but those that were still in middle/elementary school during that time, like me, might be a bit more lost in the sauce so I'll summarize quickly. The financial collapse stemmed from the terrible practices of our banks, both small and large. Don't get the wrong idea; then was worse than now, but the underlying issues still remain. In the 2000's banks were handing out mortgage loans to pretty much any and everyone interested in owning a house, paying no mind to what the loaner's credit score was & totally ignoring the overhead risk of the loan; stemming from their greed while looking short term profits being returned on these shit loans. As interest rates began to go up, more and more home owners began to default (unable to pay their mortgage payment, filing for bankruptcy.) Effectively leaving the banks with boatloads of debt & their investors with massive losses with no way to recoup these loses (since the loaned money cannot be recouped as a result of the borrower defaulting/claiming bankruptcy/ asking for financial forgiveness which is a standard practice across the board.) The result, banks were bailed out by our gov't with 'printed money' and these debts were tacked onto the tax payers for the following decade. Faith was restored in our economy, people were able to start getting jobs and consumerism was put back into the spot-light. Fast forward to 2016, the common Americans have finished paying these debts & have totally forgotten about what has happened in the housing market; MIND YOU, most don't even understand the significance or how it played in the global economic collapse.... Banks were able to silently return to their shitty process of presenting investors with shit investments; ones yielding such massive returns that it didn't take long for greed to kick right back in... Also step in trump and his campaign with a target set on the common population in our country... "We're gonna build a wall because immigrants are to blame for the degradation of our economic integrity; they're stealing your jobs and I'm gonna give them back. Oh, and global warming is a LIE! I'm gonna boost oil productions to levels no president has ever dared to before!" Well, this clown did exactly that, except it was FOLLOWING OPEC's first agreement on cutbacks.. Honestly, I don't question for a minute that OPEC is aware of the dwindling demand for oil on the horizon & they're working to preserve the price of oil for as long as they can (Oil is the legitimate backbone of these countries, and they have quite an abundant supply; a supply which they want to maximize their return on, for as long as possible.) So of course when Trump boosted our output, it looked like our economy was expanding... While in actuality, this dude legit manipulated an agreement between nations, in efforts to make the US economy APPEAR more wealthy on paper... Cue inflation of 'the trump bubble.' Conclusively, our economies LT production output was NOT improved upon what so ever in the last 20 years; in-fact we have continually failed to break out of this time of stagnation due to greed in the markets ';fueling our economic progress'.. If it still isn't clear how it previously could appear as tho we're making economic improvements while in actuality we're in a time of limbo? (Regarding the constant craze back in 16' when we broke to new highs) Easy - 1) Consumerism has been continually pushed into the spot-light & the general market investors have failed continually to see the flaws that stem by front-running it & over-inflating the sector, 2) Banks/creditors use this to their benefit and continually prey upon peoples desires for material possession, 3) Trumps manipulation of a dying sector. All three of these factors which have led to pretty much everyone believing that our economy has been booming, pouring their money into it & pushing it to 'making a leg up.' It's practically impossible to predict the markets movements over the coming months, so I'm rather focusing on potential interactions with support & resistance levels. A more aggressive path - US economy doesn't open on May 1st & over the next months bankruptcies grow (This would be the ugliest of the bunch and would force our gov't into a hand towards economic revolution sooner rather than later; kinda funny when considering trumps tweet about reinforcing infrastructure.) Compared to A gradual deflation - With the shameless market manipulation thus far, I'm much more so expecting movements closer to this projection and truthfully believe it could threaten a lower support beyond my low side projections listed next. (In both scenarios I'd project a bottom around 11-13K on the Dow Jones, 1.7-1.9K on the S&P, and ~5.5K on the NASDAQ. These low side projections reflect a collapse to 2000's highs & the earliest point of which we could say this period of stagnation has come to an end.) All things considered, our current administration in gov't has shown how shamelessly they will fight against this threat of the rapid deflation and I don't expect that to disappear in the coming months; playing this fucked market should be fun... I only hope that in the LT it can correct itself & our drive for innovation outshines the big wigs shameless greed. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Recap of Last Week's Suspicious Insider Purchasing Activity Posted: 05 Apr 2020 10:58 AM PDT Hey all. We look at all of the Form 4s filed anytime an executive buys, sells, or is granted stock, to see if we can find any unusual insider compensation activity (i.e. activity that isn't part of any prearranged plans like repurchase programs, 10b5-1 plans, incentive programs, performance bonuses, yearly bonuses, etc). Last week we found W.P. Carey, Solar Capital, and Westlake Chemical Partners. 1) W. P. Carey Inc. ($WPC) - Insider PurchasesSEC Form 4 Filings -> https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/own-disp?action=getissuer&CIK=1025378&type=&dateb=&owner=include&start=0 Proxy Statement -> https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1025378/000104746919001969/a2238264zdef14a.htm *Unfortunately, we were a little slow in getting our analysis on W.P. Carey out (we found them on March 20th) as we were busy filtering through all the Executive Compensation activity, so the stock has rebounded 18% since we found them. However, they are still a prime candidate to keep an eye on as they are down significantly over the last month.* From Yahoo Finance:
W. P. Carey was having a good start to the year, reaching a peak stock price of $88.27 before crashing 44% over the last month to a closing price of $49.36 on March 20th (their closing price on March 27th was $60.34). The recent Form 4 activity shows that none of the executives' purchases were particularly large from a percentage of their total holdings standpoint, but that is because all of the executives (except for the Chief Accounting Officer) already own over $20M in stock. All of the executives except for the Chief Accounting Officer spent over $400,000 repurchasing stock while the 3 directors increased their holdings by 37%, 20%, and 11%. The only executive that did not purchase any stock is their CFO.
The individual Form 4 forms show give no explanation for the purchases, so we can assume that it isn't part of any sort of pre-arranged plan. The Proxy Statement verifies that W. P. Carey does have ownership guidelines stating that the CEO must hold 6x their annual salary in the stock, the other named executives must hold 3x their annual salary, and the Directors must hold 5x their cash retainers. Everyone except for one of the Directors holds a substantial amount more stock than they are required even after taking a 44% haircut on the stock price over the last month. \ The Chief Accounting Officers salary was not present in the most recent Proxy Statement **
W. P. Carey shows some intriguing insider purchasing activity and the substantial amount of money their top executives have invested in the company shows that they have a lot of skin in the game and are heavily incentivized to get that stock price back up to where it was before the crash. 2) Solar Capital Ltd ($SLRC) - Purchasing ActivitySEC Form 4 Filings -> https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/own-disp?action=getissuer&CIK=1418076&type=&dateb=&owner=include&start=0 Proxy Statement -> https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418076/000119312519222090/d747559ddef14a.htm From Yahoo Finance:
Like most companies in the Asset Management industry, Solar Capital got crushed by this market downturn falling from their recent high of $21.12 down to their close of $10.62 on March 25th (a 49% decline). The recent Form 4 activity shows quite a bit of purchasing activity by the executives since the beginning of March (especially by the co-CEO, Michael Gross). The table below shows that all of the executives (and one director) made sizable 6-figure (and one 7-figure) purchases (except for the Chief Compliance Officer) and all made very sizable percentage increases to their holdings.
You will notice above that Mr. Gross made a 7-figure "indirect" purchase on top of his almost $800,000 direct purchase. Looking into his Form 4 shows us that most of that indirect ownership is through the Employee Stock Plan, Solar Capital Investors, and Solar Capital Investors 2, which both him and the other co-CEO, Bruce Spohler, have an ownership stake in. According to their Proxy Statement, it does not appear that Solar Capital has any ownership guidelines. This leads us to believe that these executive purchases could have been made because the executives believe the stock is at a great buying price. 3) Westlake Chemical Partners ($WLKP) - Purchasing ActivitySEC Form 4 Filings -> https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/own-disp?action=getissuer&CIK=1604665&type=&dateb=&owner=include&start=0 10-K filing -> http://www.snl.com/Cache/IRCache/c6d33de99-faea-90c8-f9d9-e2b96bd61806.html From Yahoo Finance:
Westlake has had a rough start to the year. They have fallen from a stock price of $22.81 at the start of the year down to a low of $10.31 before making their way back up to a closing price of $16.08 at the close of the market on March 25th. Over the last two weeks, there has been a substantial amount of executive purchasing activity at $WLKP. The purchasing was led by the CEO who bought up nearly $1,000,000 worth of shares between March 10th and March 24th as the stock continued its decline. None of the other purchases were particularly large from a dollar value perspective, but they all notably increased their amount of shares owned from a percentage perspective. We also find that Randy Woelfel, the sole director that made purchases, bought stock in the company for the first time (at a very good price too).
Taking a look at the CEO's Form 4, we first can verify that these purchases were not part of any pre-arranged plans. We also notice that Mr. Chao and his family own a significant number of shares through other entities and trusts. We couldn't find any proxy statements for Westlake, but their 10-K does not mention any ownership guidelines that require executives and directors to own a certain amount of stock. It appears that these executives may just believe the stock is at a very good price point and are buying it up. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 06 Apr 2020 12:07 AM PDT For stocks like Exxon and Chevron, what are your plans? I haven't bought any yet and was planning on buying some. Should I wait for the talks on Thursday, or just try and buy tomorrow? Thoughts? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 05 Apr 2020 02:23 PM PDT What are your favorite podcasts that cover the markets and investing? Looking for something which covers daily market updates/futures/investing on a day to day basis. Thanks! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Finally, a Sunday where futures opened green Posted: 05 Apr 2020 03:06 PM PDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 05 Apr 2020 09:22 PM PDT Net Debt = 0 Patent win till 2028 for their main drug Alzheimer drug that looks more than likely to be approved - in my opinion based on their clinical study data. 3-4 pipeline drug results by end of 2021 Trading at 53B - 7B in earnings If their drug gets approved 10-15B in earnings... would be worth more than 53B. Upwards of 100B+ Undervalued because the market thinks that their Alzheimer's data is bullshit. Give me the bear case. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Oil outlook for the coming week? Posted: 05 Apr 2020 04:26 PM PDT OIL FUTURES: Crude slumps on OPEC+ meeting delay, lack of US commitment [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Does anyone believe in Nokia anymore? Posted: 05 Apr 2020 01:12 PM PDT It's a simple question. It feels to me that every piece of news during many years have been negative. First it was problems with high-end smartphones, then it was iPhone, then they made a stupid purchase (Here maps), problems with the application store (Ovi), problems with Symbian/Meego. Now it is most apparently problems with 5G. The stock is really cheap (2,76€ per Share) and why wouldn't it be? Nokia's all time high was 65€, thus The percentage change from 65 to 2.76 is -95.75 %. Are there any examples of a company that has Lost 95% of its value and made a significant comeback? Moreover, for me it is hard to believe that Nokia can start paying any notable dividends for many years. But what I believe are the strong fluctuations in the stock price (might go up 10-20% in a short time), the only thing needed is a first real good piece of news and the stock could high likely bounce up. What do you think? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 06 Apr 2020 01:45 AM PDT Hello /r/investing friends, I'm an Australian, and just wanted to hear your perspectives on the difference between now and December 2018. The December 2018 correction was well overdue, but reversed quickly and failed to even enter a bear market, since the Bull sentiment was too strong. P/E for many companies are still sky high (and will be even higher once they start getting revised) DJIA - 2018 - 21712.53 Now - 21052.53 Dow Jones is nearly at same level as 2018 December and that's despite Boeing almost collapsing from it's former heights and was happening even without coronavirus (sad to see one of my past favourite companies in this state, but c'est la vie) S&P500 - 2018 - 2346.58 Now - 2488.65 S&P 500 is signficantly higher now than then despite the material damage and reduction in earnings and increase in debt of most constituent companies. XOM, CVX, AAL, CCL, RCL are the well knowns but even HON, 3M, DXC and most other constituents are expecting heavy losses or revisions. NASDAQ - 2018 - 6190.17 Now - 7373.08 NASDAQ is signficantly higher despite many of it's unicorns and stars like TESLA, UBER (which tbf didn't exist in 2018). But let's ignore that one, the tech bubble will keep going for a bit still. NYSE - 2018 - 10724.19 Now - 9880.63 NYSE despite oil, airlines, retail, engineering, resources companies facing signficant losses/debt. DAX - 2018 - 10279.20 Now - 9882.68 (at time of post) DAX is barely down on it's DEC 2018 low, despite Lufthansa being brought to it's knees, Adidas with major sales and supply disruption, VW BMW and Daimler losing sales and money (for Daimler this is worse with F1) to name a few major impacts. Plus the already strained deutshce bank, post and reduction in business for siemens, eon, BASF. CAC40 - 2018 - 4555.99 Now - 4284.94 CAC is headstrong despite many major REIT's, hotels airlines, fashion brands which will have material impact and be only servicing a debt till maybe Q4 this year. ASX200 - 2018 - 5410.20 Now - 5286.80 ASX200 is barely worse off despite China's demand for resources materially impacted, Australian banks being asked to take the burden of the pandemic, REIT's & travel agents just left servicing debt, one our two major airlines going bankrupt by June, Major Casino's and retailers servicing debt for 6 months. So if you read that, congrats, but if not, all good.... but my question is... at these prices... how is the material impact, job losses, etc priced in as many here say? And how are we already going to be rebounding, when the situation right now is way worse than Dec 2018, and yet we see similar pricing? Sky High PE's, Mounting Debt, Poorer leverage, Lack of expansions/project? Is this some weird Bear bubble? Is some extra stimulus priced in after this is over? Because currently most stimulus is loans, which will still burden companies, heck, Australia has given practically nothing to businesses over 500 mil (which comprise most of our ASX), besides to one childcare provider. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| How to trade on TYO (tokyo stock exchange) From Canada? Posted: 05 Apr 2020 08:16 PM PDT I was looking at a couple of specific companies on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, I usually use TD (I am a Canadian Citizen BTW) for trades in NA. Are there any brokers you guys would recommend for these trades? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| When do we accept the bottom has come and gone? Posted: 06 Apr 2020 03:54 AM PDT Futures are up nearly 4%. There has been zero sign that a significant drop is coming. People keep saying it's a 'trap' or a 'bounce' but it has been multiple weeks with no significant movement down. I'm about to buy in to blue chips on the next slight dip. I'm tired of playing the waiting game for the potential of saving $10 a share in the short term. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 05 Apr 2020 08:48 PM PDT I was looking to add some value ETF's to my portfolio but wasn't sure of the pros and cons to these two. Anyone have any insight? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 05 Apr 2020 10:02 PM PDT So I want to make an argument as to why I think we're not entering a recession and the markets will rebound much faster than many think.
I'm not saying that this won't have long-term consequences on certain businesses, and I'm not saying that it won't cause serious problems for our economy. But there are some silver linings and I don't think the damage will be as bad as many think. Will stocks see February highs by the end of 2020? No, I don't believe so. But I also don't think it's going to take years and years to recover from the coronavirus unless one specific outcome happens: coronavirus becomes seasonal and we can't develop a vaccine. If that highly unlikely scenario happens, we could see absolute catastrophe. If you disagree with something, please disagree specifically. For example, don't just say that people aren't going to be in better financial situations. Explain to me why increased income and lower expenses won't put these people in better financial situations. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| True global exposure vs 3 fund method Posted: 06 Apr 2020 02:44 AM PDT I am seeing a lot of people posting that they use the 3 fund method for diversification (total stock market. Total Intrl, and total US bond market) as their go-to funds for investing. Side note - I am working off the vanguard funds for ref. I noticed that there are also two more funds that I feel would give true global exposure, with overlap of course, but wouldn't that provide a true coverage of all the companies around the world than just the 3 fund approach? Here is the breakdown for 3 fund method Total stock - vtsax Total Intrl - vtiax Total bond - vbtlx Then if you include the following Total emerging markets - vemax Pacific stock - vpadx There is a lot of talk in investing books about watching out for overlap when investing but you would still cover lots of other companies left out from the total international fund. Granted of course it seems like a good idea to also include a total international bond fund as well when going this route, maybe also emerging markets bond fund as well? Thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
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