U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, According to St. Louis Fed President Investing |
- U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, According to St. Louis Fed President
- Coronavirus aid bill includes $3,000 for families. Hoping to be finalized Monday.
- THIS is the test of your personal risk tolerance
- Futures hit limit down
- GameStop closes all stores
- It seems like the Nikkei 225 is like a fire wall with Japan keeping the global market from completely going to hell.
- S&P/ASX 200 (Australia) drops to 8 years low and is at levels seen in late 2008
- Reminder: The bottom is where no one is buying. Most of us are gonna miss it.
- What will a 2 trillion stimulus package do to the stock market?
- Thoughts on Delta Airlines?
- WSJ: The Worst of the Global Selloff Isn’t Here Yet, Banks and Investors Warn
- Targeting Industries: 2008 Recession and 2020 Pandemic
- What are Republicans proposing in the relief package that Democrats are against?
- Is there a ETF like GLD for Oil that is for buy and hold?
- Goldman upgrades Boeing to a Buy, $173 price target
- Is there a theoretical limit to how high the VIX can go since it's constantly monitoring an average of puts on the market?
- Tax implications of market timing in a taxable account
- How would you invest 5% of your portfolio which you have allocated for super risky investments?
- Odds on Cruise Line bailout
- What CAUSES IV Crush?
- Will Coronavirus cause inflation or deflation?
- I'm I an idiot for not rolling over my 401k?
- Should I buy gold?
| U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, According to St. Louis Fed President Posted: 22 Mar 2020 01:08 PM PDT
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| Coronavirus aid bill includes $3,000 for families. Hoping to be finalized Monday. Posted: 22 Mar 2020 09:51 AM PDT |
| THIS is the test of your personal risk tolerance Posted: 22 Mar 2020 09:36 PM PDT This is the test of your personal al risk tolerance. This is the reason why they tell us to diversify I see the attitude of investors in their comments and it is quite obvious they can't stomach their current exposure to the market. I just read a comment on another thread, * "I'm losing money by holding" * No shit. And we all made a killing since 2008 by holding. This is the game. There must be downs. It is part of the process. We will profit because people will break traditional investing rules. People are saying "this time it's different" THATS WHAT PEOPLE SAY IN EVERY RECESSION AND BEAR MARKET. Capitalism will find a way to make it work. If it doesn't, then none of our money means anything anyway. When all this dust settles, every one of us should take the time to reflect our thoughts and most importantly actions during this time. Your actions - did you panic sell? Did you try to time the market and lose? What is your personal risk tolerance? Do you fee overexposed? Do you think we are in a extremely attractive buying opportunity? What will you being saying about your actions today in 7 years? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 22 Mar 2020 03:18 PM PDT https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/22/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html U.S. stock futures opened sharply lower on Sunday night as Wall Street waits on Washington to agree to an economic stimulus and rescue plan to combat the giant economic blow from the coronavirus outbreak. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell more than 900 points, or 5%, to hit their "limit down" level. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were also down around 5%. Downside limits to futures contracts are implemented to ensure orderly market behavior. Futures could be highly volatile as headlines come out of a coronavirus task force news conference Sunday evening and as traders await news on a stimulus bill agreement (or lack of one). Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Sunday that financing programs to stimulate the economy could be worth $4 trillion, noting these efforts will include coordination with the Federal Reserve to provide businesses with necessary liquidity. "When this started, this was a bit unique to the airline industry since we had shut down most of airline travel," Mnuchin said. "This liquidity facility is a broad-based liquidity facility working with the Fed." National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow also said Saturday an economic stimulus package will total more than $2 trillion, noting it will be equal to roughly 10% of U.S. economic output. Last week, President Donald Trump signed a $100 billion bill that expanded paid leave in the U.S. However, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., signaled she is not on board with the Republican-version of the stimulus plan, saying: "From my standpoint, we're apart." Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell moved a procedural vote related to the stimulus package to 6 p.m. from 3 p.m. David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, said the difference between a fast or a prolonged recovery in the stock market will come down to three factors: How quickly the virus is contained, whether businesses will have " access to enough capital and liquidity to last the 90 to 180 days," and whether fiscal stimulus can stabilize growth forecasts. "If short-term shutdowns lead to business defaults, closures, and permanent layoffs, the damage to corporate earnings growth could persist well after the virus is contained," Kostin said in a note. Wall Street has been clamoring for fiscal economic relief as the number of coronavirus keep surging. The number of confirmed global cases surpassed 300,000 over the weekend as deaths now total over 13,000, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. In the U.S., more than 30,000 cases have now been confirmed. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Sunday cases in the state soared to 15,168 over the weekend. That's more than in France or South Korea. The outbreak has led the New York Stock Exchange to close its trading floor and temporarily move to all-electronic trading beginning Monday. NYSE expects trading to proceed as normal. "Things will get worse before they get better and the markets will continue to reflect that reality," said Marc Chaikin, CEO of Chaikin Analytics, in a note. "This means that a bottoming process will take more time and probably inflict more damage to equities." Stocks suffered their biggest one-week decline since the financial crisis in 2008, with the S&P 500 dropping more than 13%. Those losses put the broad market average more than 32% below its record set on Feb. 19. Last week ended with all 11 S&P 500 sectors closing more than 20% below their respective 52-week highs. The S&P 500 was also on pace for its worst monthly performance since 1940. Expectations for the U.S. economy have also quickly deteriorated. Economists at Goldman Sachs wrote Friday they expect a 24% contraction for the second quarter after a 6% drop in the first quarter. "Suffice to say that the economy entered a unique, sudden-stop recession in March," wrote Prajakta Bhide, strategist at MRB Partners. "If there is no concrete evidence of meaningful progress toward controlling the epidemic in the next eight weeks, there will be no basis for people and businesses to feel safe to begin to normalize economic activity." Investors have also been rattled by a sharp decline in crude prices. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 29.3% last week, their biggest weekly fall since January 1991. U.S. crude is also more than 66% below its most-recent 52-week high. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 22 Mar 2020 04:02 PM PDT GameStop will close all of its storefronts starting Sunday following outcry from employees and calls from lawmakers to stay at home as coronavirus spreads in the United States. Though stores will be closed to customers, GameStop will process orders on a digital only basis, moving to curbside pick-up at stores and delivery. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/tech/gamestop-open-essential-business/index.html [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 22 Mar 2020 07:22 PM PDT All markets and futures are down with the exception of the Nikkei which is starting a slow climb back. [link] [comments]  |
| S&P/ASX 200 (Australia) drops to 8 years low and is at levels seen in late 2008 Posted: 22 Mar 2020 07:00 PM PDT Currently at 4473 which was last seen in 2012 as well as October 2008 [link] [comments]  |
| Reminder: The bottom is where no one is buying. Most of us are gonna miss it. Posted: 22 Mar 2020 07:10 AM PDT My best guess is that when we see the bottom of this thing, nobody is going to buy because everybody already bought, thinking the bottom was higher, and no one has any money left. I think we are going to have a bottom that is the hardest to call in the history of the stock market. 9/11 -- no brainer: wait for the planes to hit, then buy. Financial crisis -- also easy -- wait for bailout, then buy. Corona Crisis -- this one is not easy. Next week, many investors are going to get tricked into the first false bottom. There will be more. I'm calling 14,000 as the real bottom. Maybe 12,000. Few of us are going to have any cash by the time it comes. [link] [comments]  |
| What will a 2 trillion stimulus package do to the stock market? Posted: 22 Mar 2020 10:55 AM PDT Curious about other opinions. Will this really help stimulate the market? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 22 Mar 2020 11:09 PM PDT Aren't the chances of bankruptcy and shareholder wipe low since Warren Buffet owns 11%, and he would probably bail Delta out before letting his shares get wiped? [link] [comments]  |
| WSJ: The Worst of the Global Selloff Isn’t Here Yet, Banks and Investors Warn Posted: 22 Mar 2020 06:45 AM PDT The most brutal stretch for global markets since the financial crisis likely isn't over yet, say investors and analysts who believe it is too early to assess the possible scale of economic damage from the coronavirus. In just a few weeks, U.S. stocks have lost roughly a third of their value. In recent weeks, investors have even fled assets like U.S. government bonds and gold that typically do well during times of turmoil, underscoring the extent of the panic and the shock to once-robust investor sentiment delivered by the global health emergency. But many analysts and portfolio managers warn that neither those declines nor recent extraordinary actions by the Federal Reserve are likely to signal the end of the market crunch. They note that by historical standards, stocks' declines look modest compared with some prior downturns, given the early indications of how much damage virus-related shutdowns are likely to do to global growth. The S&P 500 is down 32% from its February peak. In comparison, stocks tumbled 57% during the financial crisis and 49% after the dot-com bubble burst in 2000 before beginning to rebound. What's more, some investors say, Wall Street is only now coming to grips with the dislocation being wrought by the virus. Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said this past week they expect U.S. economic output to tumble 24% in the second quarter, one of the worst readings on record and potentially foretelling a U.S. recession even if growth picks back up in the second half of the year. With everyday life grinding to a halt from New York to Milan, the world's biggest money managers and banks say they believe one of the most prominent market casualties from this episode could be long-term investors' ingrained inclination to step in to buy the dip. Before the coronavirus outbreak, investors' faith in the strength of the U.S. economy had led them repeatedly to rush back into the market after pullbacks to scoop up discounted shares, a response that became so routine it came to be known by its own initials, BTD or, with more intensity, BTFD. Now, many believe it could be some time before that behavior returns. "The ultimate impact of the virus on economies and markets is highly speculative at this time since there is so much we do not know about how the outbreak will actually evolve from here,'' said Rick Lacaille, global chief investment officer of State Street Global Advisors. "We need clarity on many fronts." Investors will get more of a sense of how badly the economy has been hit in the coming days when data on the manufacturing and services sectors and jobless claims are released. The latter data point has already spiked—leading Goldman to predict there could be an "unprecedented surge" in the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits over the next week. The firm forecasts the S&P 500 could be in for a 41% fall from peak to trough. Bank of America Corp. believes the selloff might not ease until the S&P 500 hits 1800—a 47% drop from its February record. And Credit Suisse Group AG , which notes stocks didn't hit their trough during the SARS pandemic in 2003 until a week after the number of new infections peaked, estimates the S&P 500 could be in for a 35% drop overall. If economic output shrinks by double-digit percentages in the second quarter, it would be a devastating pullback even by historical standards: Adjusted for inflation and seasonality, GDP fell less than 5 percentage points from peak to trough during the 2007-09 recession, which was the longest downturn since World War II. To put a floor on the current market rout, some of the world's biggest investors say they need three things: better information on the scale of the coronavirus pandemic, powerful support from governments and more forceful intervention in markets. A key issue is the uncertainty surrounding what it will take to halt the fast-moving health crisis, and the economic fallout of such measures, investors say. Governments are using a range of strategies, from stringent lockdowns in Italy, France and Spain to looser recommendations of social distancing in the U.K. and much of the U.S. As the measures vary, so does the level of economic disruption. Investors need "clarity on the ultimate scale of the problem and evidence that the infection's curves are bending globally," said Jean Boivin, head of BlackRock Investment Institute. Credible news on development of a vaccine and treatments would also help restore confidence, he said. Central banks in some of the world's biggest economies have taken steps to cut interest rates to bolster economic growth and are acting together to boost the dollar's availability. Investors are looking for governments to also coordinate actions. "One thing we've learned in the crisis in 2008 is that policy is a lot more than the sum of its parts if it's done as a global response," said Mr. Boivin. So far, governments don't seem to have deployed enough fiscal stimulus—especially in Europe, said Didier Borowski, head of macroeconomic research at Amundi. The relief and stimulus measures should probably be equivalent to 2% to 3% of the eurozone's economic output, he said. But others believe fiscal stimulus won't do much to arrest the market selloff. Cornerstone Macro analyzed the stock market's response to bursts of fiscal stimulus during the 2001 and 2008 downturns and found the S&P 500 actually continued falling over a one-year period. "Selloffs end when the problem that caused the selloff is under control," said Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at the firm. Another area of concern for investors: the fact that credit markets, encompassing both the safest sovereign bonds as well as more speculative corporate debt, have been in turmoil due to liquidity constraints, the pressure to unwind the riskiest trades and investors' demand for cash. Investors would like to see "more aggressive steps by policy makers to provide some stability in fixed-income markets,'' said Evan Brown, head of multiasset strategy at UBS Asset Management. "This includes a Fed/Treasury partnership to provide lending against corporate bonds as collateral and the ECB aggressively stepping up purchases of Italian debt." The Fed said earlier this month that it would provide $1.5 trillion through short-term lending and spend $500 billion on Treasury securities to improve market functioning. On Wednesday, the Treasury Department approved a new lending facility from the Fed to act as a backstop for money-market mutual funds. While this move is welcomed, investors say that the market is still weighing its effectiveness. "Market participants need to feel they are backstopped without question,'' said State Street's Mr. Lacaille. "Arguably this is what the Fed and Treasury Department have tried to signal and achieve, turning from messaging into action, but it seems there is a leap of faith needed by the market too.'' [link] [comments]  |
| Targeting Industries: 2008 Recession and 2020 Pandemic Posted: 22 Mar 2020 11:23 PM PDT TLDR: industries do bad in recession, which one do worst, what do now? Disclaimer, I have never been the smartest guy in any room, and am hoping for discussion. This is the link that inspired my train of thought: Which industries lost the most jobs during the great recession.Here are the historical jobs reports over time, recessions highlighted Why Jobs? The consumer is the backbone of the American economy, and the American economy is the backbone of the global financial system. The Fed/US Govt can aid, but they can't manufacture immediate recovery. So how do I create sustainable profits while my 401k gets curb stomped? Is this relevant? I don't know, I'm just a dumdum who'd like to survive a downturn. I recognize losing jobs =/= poor stock performance. I'm just looking for who might be hit the hardest, because when a company is forced to do layoffs, they're not doing so hot. I want to hear your rankings of who gets hit hardest in this downturn, out of these few select industries: Retail Trade | Manufacturing | Durable Goods | Financial | Construction | Business Services Here are my rankings and ill-informed opinions
Take my low-GPA liberal-arts-educated analysis and shred it Edit: here is an oversimplified table of which S&P industries performed worse during the recession https://www.netcials.com/finance/if-recession-comes-which-sectors-will-be-hit-hardest-based-on-past/ [link] [comments]  |
| What are Republicans proposing in the relief package that Democrats are against? Posted: 22 Mar 2020 09:05 PM PDT I'm trying to understand in detail why Democrats are against the relief package in its current form. From what I understand, is the cash to corporations just a loan or an injection of cash that won't be paid back? [link] [comments]  |
| Is there a ETF like GLD for Oil that is for buy and hold? Posted: 22 Mar 2020 08:24 PM PDT USO for oil is not for buy and hold since it decays as time goes. We know it's because oil futures is contango. Any buy and hold will pay for the storage cost. That causes the decay in holding USO overnight. But gold futures is the same like oil in contango. There's a GLD for buy and hold, and it doens't decay. How come there's no such ETF for oil that is not holding futures, but holding physical oil instead? Why isn't any ETF issuer provide a ETF for that when there's definitely buy and hold demand for oil? Please educate me! [link] [comments]  |
| Goldman upgrades Boeing to a Buy, $173 price target Posted: 22 Mar 2020 08:42 PM PDT |
| Posted: 22 Mar 2020 11:34 AM PDT Is there a theoretical maximum to the VIX or is it cumulative from the previous month? For instance, in a thought experiment, if EVERYONE owned puts on the S+P500, not a single call, the VIX would be a certain number. When the next months puts are switched in and they're the exact same, does the VIX increase again, or does it remain level? Sorry if this is a really basic question, but I can't seem to find a straight answer online, it only tells you how to calculate the current VIX given the puts over a time period, but that implys there would be a max, therefore an easy margin bet if you had enough cash to burn to keep the position open? Love to hear your thoughts, thanks :). [link] [comments]  |
| Tax implications of market timing in a taxable account Posted: 22 Mar 2020 10:34 PM PDT A lot of people here are advocates of DCA, time in the market etc, but some also seem to have pulled money out of stocks before or right when the market started to tank. My question is, for those who did the latter in a taxable account, how did you tackle the potential tax implications of selling everything and then buying back? Wouldn't having to pay taxes in those gains reduce the effect of said timing? For example, let's say you had originally invested $X in a taxable account and you already have gains of g%. So your current balance is X (1+g). Assume your marginal tax rate is m%. And let's assume that the market dropped by p% and then rallied q% subsequently over some long time period. For simplicity, let's assume no DCA and analyze two options: A) we do nothing at all. So in the end well have: X (1+g) (1-p) (1+q) B) we sell at the top and then buy back after the drop. So in the end (after paying taxes on the gain), we have: X (1+g-gm)(1+q) So to come out ahead: X (1+g) (1-p) (1+q) < X (1+g-gm)(1+q) reduces to: p > gm / (1 + g) To understand what this looks like, I've plotted the curve for a reasonable marginal tax rate of 30% - benefit of market timing in taxable account Edit: Fixed the mistake where I assumed implicitly assumed cost basis was zero. Thanks to various commenters for pointing that out. [link] [comments]  |
| How would you invest 5% of your portfolio which you have allocated for super risky investments? Posted: 23 Mar 2020 01:57 AM PDT Want to allocate 5% of my portfolio on super risky investments. Which should I consider: - Gold - Silver - Airline stocks - Cruise stocks - Mirjuana stocks - Other? Please explain your choice. Thanks! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 22 Mar 2020 05:12 PM PDT They keep the ships registered in foreign countries to avoid US taxes. They refuel whenever possible in foreign countries to avoid US fuel taxes. They hire a bunch of people from foreign countries to staff the things. They were at least partially responsible for the outbreak here. I get all that, and I used to think the bailout odds were low. However, in the press briefing today Trump again mentioned them directly when talking about bailouts and then said something like how they're important to the job market in Florida. Florida is a battleground state. Trump needs to bail out the cruise companies, because for once he's not dead wrong. They are important for the Florida economy. Totally unnecessary to the US as a whole, but important in Florida. He's been mentioning them specifically as a bailout target for weeks, so if they don't get one it would be easy for him to blame the Democrats. They also need to win Florida this November. If they allow a bailout Trump takes credit, but that might be less dangerous than saying no to a bailout and losing Florida as a result. Economically it makes zero sense to bailout cruise lines, but I think politically it pretty much has to happen in an election year given the out-sized importance Florida has as a battleground state. What say you all? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 22 Mar 2020 09:58 PM PDT Within the options circle there's a lot of talks about using IV Crush to your advantage to maximum returns in trading options. Especially during the bear market that is coronavirus. Tho what's less often talked about is what CAUSES it, what causes volatility to increase or decrease in both directions of the market? [link] [comments]  |
| Will Coronavirus cause inflation or deflation? Posted: 23 Mar 2020 01:34 AM PDT I thought it would cause deflation at first since maybe there will be less demand for any services. But I saw how 2008 caused inflation, and I've seen a lot of people talking about how it's going to cause inflation. So which one will it be? And consequently, what assets will be worth the most: cash, real estate, stocks? [link] [comments]  |
| I'm I an idiot for not rolling over my 401k? Posted: 22 Mar 2020 08:53 PM PDT I got really lucky recently. I've been wanting to roll over my 401k from an old employer into a traditional IRA for years and started the process last month. I got really lucky and Charles Schwab cut me a check on the 6th so I've basically taken no losses in the biggest downturn of my life. I'm obviously good with reinvesting at basement rates. But I've also been waiting to buy a house for a long time and now I'm assuming we're going to see a huge housing market slump (if not outright crash) in the next 6 months. My question is would the advantage of having the extra cash be worth the penalty of not reinvesting? Couple of particulars: this is only one of our retirement funds and only represents about 15-20% of our total retirement portfolio. But it would almost double our cash position. I totally understand if this is stupid to even think about but I want to be in the best position possible if the chance comes to buy. Thanks for entertaining an idiot [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 23 Mar 2020 12:49 AM PDT I'm new to investing, so please go easy on me. I wanted to know if buying gold during this recession is a safe bet for the next few months. I have about $4000 that I can invest, and during these times I'm looking for a safe place to put my money rather than keep it in my bank account. I'm not trying to make a significant amount. Mainly just trying to allocate it somewhere that will appreciate over the next few years rather than hold on to my cash and put it in my savings account. Is this even a good idea? I have been laid off due to the corona virus. Should I keep my money out and put it into my savings in my bank, or try to invest in gold and see how that will work out over the next 6 months. Like I said, I'm inexperienced with investing, but would having my money in gold be more beneficial than holding it in my savings for the upcoming months? [link] [comments]  |
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