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    Home Unlabelled Stocks - Dr. Michael Burry says passive investing is exasperating Covid-19 selloff

    Stocks - Dr. Michael Burry says passive investing is exasperating Covid-19 selloff

    March 21, 2020

    Stocks - Dr. Michael Burry says passive investing is exasperating Covid-19 selloff

    Dr. Michael Burry says passive investing is exasperating Covid-19 selloff

    Posted: 21 Mar 2020 07:22 AM PDT

    **exacerbating

    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/big-short-michael-burry-cashes-in-on-coronavirus-market-rout-2020-3-1028994855

    Burry has been saying for a while that the amount of passive investing was causing a bubble—overvaluing and overemphasizing large-cap indexed stocks and overlooking troublesome financials whilst ignoring good quality small and mid-cap stocks. He also says that it causes sell-offs to be more macro since people must sell the entire index to close their position.

    Thoughts on this? Will you continue to use ETFs and indexes in your portfolio or will you start to manage holdings more actively?

    submitted by /u/Tapiture-
    [link] [comments]

    This is the time to start getting a list of your potential buys together

    Posted: 21 Mar 2020 05:06 AM PDT

    Just a friendly reminder. This is a great time to understand companies and determine what your buy list is. Watch the market, but don't overreact in either direction. Patience and savvy pays off in the end. Take this time to get smarter and learn. Assemble your buy lists. I still think it gets worse before it gets better. This is a fantastic opportunity, although a very tragic event. Save as much capital as you can and place limit orders if you believe in your picks. Hope you all are safe and healthy. Good luck out there.

    submitted by /u/bundleogrundle
    [link] [comments]

    Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 23rd, 2020

    Posted: 21 Mar 2020 08:38 AM PDT

    Good Saturday afternoon to all of you here on r/stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.

    Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 23rd, 2020.

    Another harrowing week looms for markets as US economy shuts down and virus spreads - (Source)

    Markets face more violent swings in the coming week as investors watch out for a rising number of coronavirus cases and new data that could show how the virus is slamming the U.S. economy.

    The past week was brutal for stock investors with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting a 17.3% decline, its worst week since October 2008. But it was the stressed-out credit markets that were at the vortex of pain with a standstill in corporate paper and spreads widening in all areas, from corporates to mortgages.

    As economists looked for an even sharper economic downturn from the impact of social distancing, the Federal Reserve in the past week continued to fire away with new programs and liquidity to grease the wheels of nervous markets. By Friday, the dollar stopped its surge, and the Treasury market was a little calmer, with the benchmark 10-year yields sliding under 1% after a wild ride higher earlier in the week.

    "The Fed is buying about $70 billion in off-the-run Treasurys today. That brings their total purchases this week to $300 billion," said Patrick Leary, chief market strategist at Incapital, on Friday. "$160 billion was the highest we saw in any week during the financial crisis."

    Sharp recession

    In the week ahead, there is fresh data on manufacturing and the service sector when Markit releases its flash Purchasing Manager Indexes for manufacturing and services on Tuesday.

    Consumer sentiment will be important when it is released Friday, but the big tell for the economy will be unemployment claims on Thursday, which are expected to show the impact of massive layoffs at restaurants, stores and other businesses that were forced to close or reduce activity to prevent the spread of the virus.

    Claims rose by 33% in the past week to 281,000, an unprecedented jump outside of times of natural disasters like hurricanes. Some strategists say the claims could easily jump to 1 million or more.

    "We're going to start to see the magnitude of the coronavirus impact on the economy. We already started to see some of it in the weekly claims and now we're going to get a clearer picture," said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. Arone said he's watching the PMI data. "This data is going to inform us how bad it could get, give us some guidance, some rough rules of the road. Right now, it's sell first, ask questions later."

    Economists increasingly expect a very sharp but quick recession, starting now. Goldman Sachs economists expect a shocking 24% contraction in second quarter gross domestic product after a 6% decline in the first quarter. The economists expect unemployment to shoot up to 9% from 3.5%, but they see a rebound with growth at 12% in the third quarter.

    "I expect that we'll see abnormal volatility in markets until we begin to see that infection curve flatten, or we see some type of health remedy, vaccine or some solution. I don't think we're going to see that in the next few weeks at least," said Arone. As of Friday, there were about 14,200 cases of the virus in the U.S.

    More Fed Artillery

    Leary and others believe there is more room for the Fed to expand its arsenal, and that could include corporate debt purchases. Investment grade corporate debt funds and exchange traded funds saw record outflows of nearly $44 billion in the last week, according to Bank of America.

    The Fed has already slashed interest rates to zero, added $1 trillion in daily repo operations, and created facilities to help commercial paper, money markets and municipal debt. The dollar has rocketed higher since March 9, and the Fed also expanded swap lines with other central banks, which helped stop the dollar's run on Friday.

    As the world's reserve currency, companies, investors, banks and other institutions worldwide are looking to raise cash and they want it in dollars, the safest, most liquid currency. That rapid move to cash put a strain on the foreign exchange market, and sent the dollar higher and other currencies sharply lower.

    "I think the market is going to be looking for indications that there's some sort of stabilization, or maybe even a hint of stabilization and that policy makers are taking the right action. I think we're not yet at that cathartic moment of peak pessimism," said Ben Randol, foreign exchange strategist at Bank of America. "I'm watching what's going to happen over the weekend because some pretty big numbers [of new virus cases] could come out, not just in the U.S. but in other countries."

    'Liquidity infinity'

    Strategists say it would not be surprising to see more Fed policy moves next week, and a big fiscal stimulus package is expected to come up in Congress on Monday, to ease the impact of job losses on individuals and help companies weather the downturn.

    John Briggs, head of strategy at NatWest Markets, said the bond market responded to the Fed's actions to make more dollars available, seeming to slow the sale of Treasurys by those parties looking to raise cash. "Things are settling into ranges Friday afternoon, because we can't take it anymore," he said.

    "The amount of policy thrown at this market was staggering ... Liquidity infiinity is what I'm calling it," he said. "By the weekend, the whole country is literally going to be shut . You have claims at state unemployment offices skyrocketing. What's the good news over the weekend? That they're going to pass this bill? That's already in the price."

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Indices for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

    (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

    Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

    Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #4!)

    How Markets Bottom

    With US equities firmly in a bear market, even the most long-term investors are now looking ahead to when the selling may stop and where the S&P 500 Index might ultimately bottom. "Nobody knows exactly how this market bottom will play out," said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. "However, using history as guide, we know markets tend to retest or even slightly break previous lows."

    We took a look at how markets have bottomed for two previous bear markets that show similarities to the current sell-off, in terms of speed and magnitude. As shown in the chart below, following Black Monday, the largest single-day decline in the history of the S&P 500, the index rebounded modestly, before undercutting its lows about six weeks later. However, a look at the bottom panel shows that the momentum, or speed, of that move was significantly less extreme and markets went on to rally, ultimately eclipsing the 1987 peak less than two years later.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    The 2008-2009 financial crisis tells a similar story. While the S&P 500 Index didn't ultimately reach its low until March 2009, most stocks actually bottomed during the fall 2008, following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Even though the S&P 500 undercut the October lows by a full 10%, this divergence, similar to the momentum observed in 1987, shows that things were improving under the surface even if the price of the index didn't yet reflect it.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    It may be too early to say that the initial leg of our current decline is done, but certainly we have seen extreme fear and a historic decline in markets. One positive—the S&P 500 has yet to close below its December 2018 lows. Soon it may be time to start hunting for signs of a bottom.

    Stocks Approach 2009 Valuations vs. Bonds

    We rolled out our Road to Recovery Playbook at the start of the week to help investors gauge where the market is in its bottoming process. The first and most important piece of that playbook—visibility into a peak in new COVID-19 cases—remains elusive, but we hope to have a clearer picture with the next couple of weeks as containment efforts have more time to work. We continue to monitor cases daily and plan to update you on that progress regularly during this crisis.

    We're getting closer to checking off the other four boxes. We would just like to see a bit more economic data consistent with recession—almost surely coming soon—and to get more clarity on the timing, size, and nature of the policy response before checking off those two boxes on our list. The technical analysis and sentiment box was checked last week—the amount of bearishness among investors is near the levels of prior bear market lows.

    The last box—markets pricing in recession—was also checked last week based on the magnitude of the sell-off. The nearly 30% drop in the S&P 500 Index from the February 19 high is close to the average peak-to-trough decline in recessions at about 35%.

    Another way to show a recession is priced in and stocks may be near their ultimate bottom is by valuing stocks relative to bonds, sometimes called the equity risk premium (ERP), which we show in the LPL Chart of the Day.

    "Stocks are now historically cheap by most measures after this selloff," noted LPL Chief Investment Officer Burt White. "When comparing stock valuations to bond yields, we are approaching levels only seen during some of the worst bear markets over the past 50 years."

    The equity risk premium compares the earnings yield on the S&P 500 (the inverse of the price-to-earnings ratio) to the 10-year US Treasury yield. That number as of March 18 was 4.9%, well above the long-term average of 0.8% (it was higher on March 16 when the 10-year Treasury yield was 0.73% rather than 1.18%). That compares to historical peaks between 6 and 7% in 1974 and shortly after the financial crisis.

    The bottom line is that if this trend holds equity investors could be well compensated over time for the risks they are taking now.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    We know it's tough to see the other side of this crisis right now, and the volatility is unnerving for all of us. But historically, investors who owned stocks at these valuations have been rewarded over time. We think this time will be no different.

    How Quickly Can Stocks Recover From COVID-19?

    The market volatility continues, as the S&P 500 Index has closed either up or down 4% or more for a record 7 consecutive days. With the S&P 500 Index down 30% from the highs, it has officially moved into a bear market. Yesterday, we took a look at how stocks did after the lows of major corrections formed, and today we'll take another angle on this.

    We do not know if down 30% is the lows; in fact, it probably isn't. The good news is we feel we are getting close to a major low. How quickly could stocks regain their February 19 highs? "Historically we've found that some of the quickest market sell-offs can lead to some of the fastest recoveries," explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. "That's the good news. The bad news is if the economy falls into a recession, it can take longer."

    As the LPL Chart of the Day shows, there have been 14 previous bear markets since 1950, and it took an average of 20 months from the bear market lows to recover the losses*. Taking this a step further, when the economy avoided a recession, the recovery took only 10 months, versus 30 months for a recession, although a lot of that is because bear markets accompanied by recessions are typically deeper. Last, the last three bear markets that avoided a recession recovered the gains in 3 months, 4 months, and 4 months after the ultimate bear lows were made.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Looking To The Other Side of The Bear

    The indiscriminate selling continued yesterday, with one of the worst days in stock market history. Fears over the potential impact of COVID-19 (coronavirus) have led to one of the steepest sell-offs in history, rivaling what we saw in 1962 and 1987.

    With the S&P 500 Index down 30% from the all-time highs set less than a month ago on February 19, it is quite clear the stock market is voting on a significant economic slowdown over the coming months. Historically, during bear markets we have found that stocks pulled back 37% on average during a recession and 24% on average if a recession is avoided. With stocks currently down right near the middle of this, the economy could be about a coin flip to going into a recession or not. We discuss this idea and more in our latest LPL Market Signals Podcast.

    What happens next? "Clearly no one knows how bad things could get and when stocks will ultimately bottom, but we feel we are getting close," explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. "The good news is a year after previous market corrections end, as scary as they all felt at the time, stock performance has historically been quite strong, higher more than 90% of the time."

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, since 1980, there have been 31 other 10% corrections or more for the S&P 500, according to data from our friends at Ned Davis Research. We'd like to stress, we don't know when this weakness will end, but if we are close, the average return after a correction ends has been more than 23% on average and higher more than 90% of the time.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    COVID-19 Collapse vs. Other Major Downturns

    Even though equities rose today, the S&P 500 still remains over 28% off of the 2/19 high. As of yesterday's close, only twenty days after the S&P 500's peak, the index was down nearly 32% from that high. Below is a look at the current selloff from its high versus prior big selloffs since 1928. We all know about the 1929 and 1987 market crashes, but this one has even those beat in terms of the time it took to fall this much. And the two major peaks and subsequent bear markets of the 21st century both took basically a year to fall the same amount that we've fallen in just 20 trading days this time.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Oil Slippery

    Like a flopping wet fish, it's been incredibly hard to get a hold on an accurate price of crude oil this week. With a gain of 22.2% so far today, WTI is experiencing its largest one-day gain on record (dating back to 1983). The next closest largest one-day gain was in December 2008 when crude rallied 17.8%. While today's gain is impressive, keep in mind that it followed yesterday's decline of 24.4% which ranks as the third-largest one-day decline on record and last week's 24.6% decline on March 9th. In fact, three of the four largest one-day percentage moves in WTI have all come in the last two weeks!

    While a big gain in any asset class always leads to questions over whether it is the start of a new run higher, we would caution that following the prior nine largest one-day gains on record, crude oil's median change over the next week was a decline of 4.4%.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Russell 2000's Third Largest Drawdown on Record

    While US large cap stocks are right around 30% from their record highs a month ago, the carnage in small caps has been even more severe. While the Russell 2000 never quite made a new high this year along with the broader market, it got pretty close. Like the rest of the market, though, it has been crushed. As of yesterday's close, the Russell 2000 was 43.1% below its all-time high which ranks as the third-largest decline from a record high. The only two periods where the Russell saw a larger decline were in October 2002 when the drawdown reached 46.1% and then in March 2009 when the selling finally stopped at 59.9% on March 9, 2009. Now, if the Russell 2000 were to match either of those prior two periods in terms of magnitude, it would have to fall an additional 4.3% to match the decline of October 2002 or 28.9% to match the decline of March 2009.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    The Buck's Bounce

    In the currency space, the US dollar has certainly not been immune from recent market volatility. The dollar index peaked on February 20th, just one day after the S&P 500 had reached its all time highs. That was the dollar's highest level since April of 2017. Over the following days, the dollar would go on to fall roughly 5% to its low on March 9th. In the time since then, it has more than recovered those losses, rising over 6% and is once again back up to its highest levels since 2017.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    This string of volatility for the greenback is rare. As of today, the dollar is up 4.26% over the past ten days. But just back on the ninth (the recent low) it had been lower by 4.12% over the prior ten days. The last time that there was both a 10-day change up and down of at least 4% in the span of just ten days was back in October of 2008. Going back through the index's history since the early 1970s, there have been a total of 15 days (including that 2008 and current instances) in which such swings can be observed; shown by the red dots in the chart below. Prior to 2008, the only other times the dollar was as volatile by this measure was in the 1980s and late 1970s. So with regards to more recent history, it is even more unprecedented.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    In terms of daily changes, the dollar has also been very volatile. Over the past ten days, the currency has averaged a daily change (positive or negative) of just over 1% which is rare going back through history. Again this is the most volatile the dollar has been since the financial crisis, though at that time, the daily swings were larger on average; reaching 1.35% at the high. Prior to 2008, the only other times the average daily change was over 1% was in the early 1990s, mid-1980s, and late 1970s. As with 2008, those past times were slightly more volatile than the current moment.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

    • $MU
    • $LULU
    • $NKE
    • $PAYS
    • $SIG
    • $PAYX
    • $GME
    • $ONTX
    • $CSIQ
    • $JT
    • $INFO
    • $GO
    • $WGO
    • $LX
    • $SCVL
    • $SNX
    • $HOME
    • $BWAY
    • $AEYE
    • $KBH
    • $RKDA
    • $FDS
    • $ERJ
    • $PRGS
    • $OPGN
    • $SCS
    • $NEOG
    • $PUMP
    • $HYRE
    • $AIR
    • $MYOS
    • $LIQT
    • $SAIC
    • $SCWX
    • $ESLT
    • $VTSI
    • $OCGN
    • $QIWI
    • $WOR
    • $TNP
    • $HTHT
    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

    Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

    Monday 3.23.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Monday 3.23.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 3.24.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 3.24.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 3.25.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 3.25.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Thursday 3.26.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Thursday 3.26.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Friday 3.27.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Friday 3.27.20 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    NONE.

    Micron Technology, Inc. $36.11

    Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, March 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.37 per share on revenue of $4.66 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.41 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.29 to $0.41 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 77.84% with revenue decreasing by 20.14%. Short interest has decreased by 22.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 34.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.7% below its 200 day moving average of $47.35. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, March 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,642 contracts of the $42.00 call expiring on Friday, April 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 17.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    lululemon athletica inc. $165.01

    lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, March 26, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.25 per share on revenue of $1.38 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $2.10 to $2.13 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 21.62% with revenue increasing by 18.21%. Short interest has decreased by 50.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 27.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.6% below its 200 day moving average of $205.28. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, March 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,041 contracts of the $200.00 call expiring on Friday, April 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 19.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.0% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Nike Inc $67.45

    Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, March 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.58 per share on revenue of $9.87 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.63 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.71% with revenue increasing by 2.69%. Short interest has increased by 37.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 33.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.4% below its 200 day moving average of $90.36. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, March 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,468 contracts of the $95.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 14.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.5% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Paysign, Inc. $4.29

    Paysign, Inc. (PAYS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, March 25, 2020. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has increased by 10.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 60.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 64.7% below its 200 day moving average of $12.14. The stock has averaged a 11.3% move on earnings in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Signet Jewelers Ltd $7.74

    Signet Jewelers Ltd (SIG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Thursday, March 26, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.47 per share and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.53 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 12.37% with revenue decreasing by 53.64%. Short interest has decreased by 39.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 57.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.7% below its 200 day moving average of $18.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, February 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,000 contracts of the $32.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. The stock has averaged a 13.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Paychex, Inc. $51.97

    Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, March 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.95 per share on revenue of $1.14 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.95 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.74% with revenue increasing by 6.50%. Short interest has decreased by 18.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 40.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.5% below its 200 day moving average of $83.19. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, March 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,413 contracts of the $62.50 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.5% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    GameStop Corp. $3.76

    GameStop Corp. (GME) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, March 26, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.84 per share on revenue of $2.36 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 4% expecting an earnings miss. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 42.07% with revenue decreasing by 22.95%. Short interest has increased by 1.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 28.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.1% below its 200 day moving average of $4.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, March 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,970 contracts of the $8.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. The stock has averaged a 12.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Onconova Therapeutics, Inc. $0.30

    Onconova Therapeutics, Inc. (ONTX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 PM ET on Tuesday, March 24, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.05 per share on revenue of $70.00 thousand. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 46% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 94.12% with revenue increasing by 18.64%. Short interest has increased by 798.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 27.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 76.4% below its 200 day moving average of $1.29. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 8.2% move on earnings in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Canadian Solar Inc $14.71

    Canadian Solar Inc (CSIQ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Thursday, March 26, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.55 per share on revenue of $869.35 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.49 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $850.00 million to $880.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 71.35% with revenue decreasing by 3.52%. Short interest has increased by 8.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 9.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 28.1% below its 200 day moving average of $20.45. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, March 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 511 contracts of the $18.00 call expiring on Friday, April 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 19.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 13.5% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Jianpu Technology Inc. $1.00

    Jianpu Technology Inc. (JT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Monday, March 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.01 per share on revenue of $157.83 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $34.00 million to $37.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.00% with revenue increasing by 46.23%. Short interest has decreased by 11.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 35.5% from its open following the earnings release.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    DISCUSS!

    What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

    I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/stocks.

    submitted by /u/bigbear0083
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    Boeing suspends dividend, CEO foregoes pay after virus-related aid request

    Posted: 20 Mar 2020 05:26 PM PDT

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/boeing-suspends-dividend-ceo-foregoes-pay-after-virus-related-aid-request.html

    Boeing Co said on Friday its chief executive and board chair will forego all pay until the end of 2020 and the company will suspend its dividend.

    Boeing is pursuing $60 billion in U.S. government aid to help prop up a U.S. aerospace manufacturing supply chain already reeling from the year-old grounding of its previously fast-selling 737 Max jetliner after fatal crashes.

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    Deeply Discounted Income stocks

    Posted: 21 Mar 2020 08:25 AM PDT

    Hey all,

    I am fortunate enough to have over 200k in cash to put to work. I wanted to share the income stocks that I am looking to purchase and would like some input. Right now I believe that I have identified a group of premier real estate, MBS, BDC, and asset management companies that are at extraordinarily low prices. I would like to know any opinions on these moving forward. Are they going to blow up? Will the dividend be cut never to return to current levels again?

    $NRZ - New Residential Investment Corporation: Mortgage Backed Securities... The current administration is going at great lengths to push the 'pause' button on the residential mortgage market. If this market is saved this investment will skyrocket back to its usual trading range within a year or so. Currently its down over 50% and its dividend is ~30%.

    $O - Realty Income Corporation: Doesn't need much of an introduction. Diversified REIT that is down massively with a dividend sitting at about 6% right now.

    $BPY - Brookfield Property Partners: Extremely diversified real estate partnership with backing from the Brookfield Asset Management Group. Has some hotel/travel exposure from an aquisition several years ago but its parent company should be able support it if that turns in to too much of a drag. Down massively with a dividend sitting at ~15%

    $MAIN - Main Street Capital Corporation: Premier BDC. Management has said that at least their next 3 dividends are protected. Survived 2007-2009 with a current yield of ~14%.

    $ARCC - Ares Capital Corporation: The most blue chip of BDCs. The majority of their credit income comes from Healthcare and Software. Survived 2007-2009. Current yield of ~15%.

    $BX - Blackstone Group: Extremely solid private equity & alternative asset management company. Great dividend history and sitting on lots of cash right now. Current yield is around 6.5%

    submitted by /u/Rageoftheage
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    United airlines demands aid or else ...

    Posted: 20 Mar 2020 09:15 PM PDT

    Best tools for stock research?

    Posted: 21 Mar 2020 10:04 AM PDT

    I have been using Ycharts, Morningstar, Simply Safe Dividends and TD Webbroker (mostly for paid morningstar research for free). Ycharts is by far one of the most useful tools to see data over time and quickly compare all the important fundamentals of multiple companies. Simply safe focuses all its data on the growth and sustainability of the companies dividend. I place a high emphasis on this so I find the site super useful. Finally, I use seeking alpha specifically authors like dividend sensei which have high-quality reports

    I basically just keep creating free trials since some of these sites are expensive. I have heard Fact Set might be good but I haven't looked into it enough. I left out the actual investor calls and reports to establish and evaluate management's strategy but I only do that after the fundamentals check out.

    What tools do you guys use to compare key fundamental data?

    submitted by /u/offensiveniglet
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    Which stocks/ETFs do you think will bounce back highest in the next 6-9 months?

    Posted: 21 Mar 2020 02:01 PM PDT

    Safe stocks like MSFT, KO, AAPL have been down 30% so far. Other mid to small cap stocks have been hit harder, down 30-60+%. Which stocks/ETFs do you think have a greater upside after this pandemic subsides? Keep in mind this is different than asking which stocks are good to hold for the near future. Mark Cuban is putting money in LYV, which to me makes sense since we'll all be craving live entertainment after all this cabin fever. I'd love to hear your thoughts on LYV and any other stocks which might have major bounce backs after we beat this virus.

    submitted by /u/saclambda127
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    Has anyone found a good website to see balance sheets and p/e ratios and all that sort of stuff?

    Posted: 21 Mar 2020 03:53 AM PDT

    The only website I've found is marketbeat.com for business' p/e ratios and that but a lot of the information isn't available for whatever reason. And it doesn't give balance sheets. Has anyone found a good site to see all those numbers?

    submitted by /u/onendedstick95
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    Best app to practice trading options in a simulated environment?

    Posted: 21 Mar 2020 08:15 AM PDT

    I figured while I'm waiting for my account with Questrade to open I would practice trading Options.

    Anyone know a good app to do this on?

    Thanks!

    submitted by /u/Whakefieldd
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    DHR

    Posted: 21 Mar 2020 01:26 PM PDT

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/21/fda-grants-emergency-use-coronavirus-test-that-can-deliver-results-in-45-minutes.html

    Cepheid is owned by Danaher. They just got approved by FDA on Coronavirus tests with a 45 minute turn around time. DHR was seen as a stock that could go up from the coronavirus in the past but didn't do anything. This might help to get it back up. It's in the $120s now and was $170 prior to all this. They were on a consistent upward trend.

    Do you think that this could be the time to buy into DHR?

    submitted by /u/Shulz87
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    Thoughts on Spirit Airlines?

    Posted: 21 Mar 2020 01:04 PM PDT

    I havent heard much at all about anyone looking at Spirit. It seems like a great deal right now. What are your thoughts?

    submitted by /u/GhostHQ
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    What is your opinion on Nextera Energy?

    Posted: 21 Mar 2020 07:29 AM PDT

    I have only heard good things about whether to buy this or not, but I'm not familiar with the terminology used in the reasoning. If someone who has checked Nextera Energy out could dumb things down for me as to why it is a good buy, id greatly appreciate it!

    submitted by /u/Ryanmcl19
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    Canadian Trading US stocks in US currency

    Posted: 21 Mar 2020 09:59 AM PDT

    Hi folks,

    just a quick question related to dollar conversions to $USD (from $CAD) as it relates specifically to stocks / profits.

    what needs to be considered when buying US stocks (or maybe the question can be general for all foreign stocks)?

    As a simple example .. let's say I want to invest in MUR stock.

    the stock is being sold for $5.51/share.. let's assume that's what I would buy it Monday (all hypothetical)

    $1USD = $1.44 CAN so that means I'm essentially buying the stock for $7.93 + a conversion fee... I think Questrade charges 2% conversion fee on top of that.. right? (any way to improve thatt?)

    So ultimately I'm paying $8.09 CAN for MUR stock

    Right now the Canadian currency is pretty crappy, but It always bounces back (it's basically the lowest it's been vs the USD in recent memory)

    so wouldn't it be ok to buy US stocks now anyways, because when I would sell the Canadian currency would normalize?

    let's say in a year MUR stock shoots up to $20 USD /share and I sold it ... where Canadian dollar would be $1.30 for every $1USD... (just making these numbers up...)

    I would essentially be making $25.48 CAN / share and profit would be $25.48 CAN - $8.09 CAN.

    Am I missing anything?

    Cheers

    submitted by /u/SmackEh
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    Let’s talk about Boeing (BA)

    Posted: 21 Mar 2020 05:17 AM PDT

    To calm everyone's nerves, I personally don't think BA is going to go bankrupt, as many people said before "too big to fail" is very much true in this case, 25% of the company alone is defense, and majority is passenger air travel. That being said, I think it will go a bit lower and then that will be the time to some shares, is it risky? Sure. But even with a bailout, depending on the stipulations I think a couple to a few years down the road it will be back in the low 300's. As soon as this beer virus passes over, and they start fulfilling orders of the thousands of planes they have backlogged it will start flourishing and also get the 737 MAX back in rotation. Let me know when you guys think.

    submitted by /u/tybone537
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    Market is still overvalued?

    Posted: 21 Mar 2020 08:22 AM PDT

    We all know the 10+ year euphoric bull run was unsustainable, but it kept going up. Don't calculate bottom from all time highs but from how much growth was actually realistic over the decade, then factor in normal corrections and were looking at a down closer to 15,000... and because of the virus + oil + debt + automation, we're looking at an extended bear market. I'm verklempt...

    submitted by /u/kazillionair
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    Everyone scared to buy = buy?

    Posted: 21 Mar 2020 01:09 PM PDT

    Is it now the time to buy?

    Like Warren Buffet says "be greedy when others are scared and scared when others are greedy"

    Now everyone seems to be scared and saying "no way it is going uper. it is going downer for sure!"

    submitted by /u/vcarpe
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    Airlines promise to cut dividends and to eliminate share buybacks amid bankruptcy.

    Posted: 21 Mar 2020 12:53 PM PDT

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airline-ceos-promise-to-eliminate-dividends-and-stock-buybacks-if-congress-passes-29-b-coronavirus-bailout-175925540.html

    Six shares on Delta at an average cost of $36.92/share; held off on DCA'ing with the recent drops and I am glad I did. Even with a 30-year horizon; I don't plan on investing into any other airlines, let alone expanding my position in Delta anytime soon. What do you think about this? What're your plans for airlines in the short, medium, and long term? Are you staying away as well? Look forward to hearing your opinions!

    submitted by /u/Saltymochi
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    What are stocks that have still been in the green?

    Posted: 21 Mar 2020 08:55 AM PDT

    I couldn't know how I can research other stocks beyond my watchlist of ones that I already know. Is there a way? I know ZM is green.

    submitted by /u/rawnaldo
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    A question about Selling low and buying lower

    Posted: 21 Mar 2020 03:10 AM PDT

    This may have come up in multiple prior posts and I'm sorry for troubling you all with it again if that's the case. I'm still trying to learn how to invest and there are lots of rules to know, and I couldn't find the particular answer to my inquiry :)

    While we can't predict the market and I'm intent on holding my stocks through this crazy time, can anyone explain the implications (pros and cons) or the process of selling a stock that I am now heavily taking a loss for (due to not selling when it was profitable), then purchasing the stock the next day or later when it's dropped in price? I've read a bit into the wash sale rules and I understand that I can't claim a tax deduction for the loss incurred if I buy the stock back within 30 days, and that's fine. I'm moreso concerned about any consequences on the "profit" made in the price differences, or if there's any other negative aspect I'm overlooking other than the "I can't file for a loss."

    Example: I bought 100 shares XYZ stock last year at $10/share. With COVID 19 pandemonium, I sell my 100 shares of XYZ stock at $8/share. The day after, I buy 100 shares of XYZ stock at $5/share, and I now have an extra $300 leftover from the $800 selling the day before.

    I know I can't report the $200 loss from the initial sell for a tax deduction because of wash sale rules, and that this $200 will be added to my cost basis in purchasing the 100 shares at $5. But what about the $300 I made? Does that get taxed?

    Is this method "worse" than holding my stocks through until its eventual recovery? I've read in a lot of posts that responses are we can't predict when it will be the bottom, and this may result in buying high and selling low, but what if it's not finding the very lowest but a matter of "lower." I'm currently holding on selling my stocks, buying stocks as a means of dollar averaging, but excuse my ignorance haha cuz I may have made an oopsie in selling a stock I made a loss on then rebuying it a lower price the day after :3

    submitted by /u/jourdynlao
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    Vaccine is still well over a year out. Does this still effect the markets heavily or we on steady slow decline now.

    Posted: 21 Mar 2020 12:09 PM PDT

    Just today watching the White House briefing Mike Pence said the vaccine is still well over a year out despite the rush for clinical testing that's never been done before. This has to still weigh on stock holders minds to show this virus will still be around. Also the fact that the reports going to skyrocket over the next week. Essential we're not done dropping.

    VIX index is at the all time high compared to 2008. When that happened in Oct 2008 it wasn't till March 2009 for the bottom happened. Could we have seen the last of our biggest drop days and now it's just a slow decline to that bottom.

    submitted by /u/gypsyphotos
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    Stop Saying “the market will bottom at x time.”

    Posted: 21 Mar 2020 09:51 AM PDT

    Admit that you don't know. That you cannot predict the market in the short term.

    Devise a plan to get you through no matter what happens. I am basically planning to deploy all my excess capital over the next 3 ish months starting next week, with weekly or bi-weekly buys. After that I'll buy with every paycheck until I can no longer find undervalued companies.

    It's easy to say "we're gonna keep falling, I'll wait." People said that in 2008 but never got back in. Bull markets don't announce themselves. Get in slowly, but do it now.

    submitted by /u/oakaypilot
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    Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the trading week beginning March 23rd, 2020

    Posted: 21 Mar 2020 08:11 AM PDT

    Here are the most notable earnings releases for the trading week beginning March 23rd, 2020.

    Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

    Monday 3.23.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Monday 3.23.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 3.24.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 3.24.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 3.25.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 3.25.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Thursday 3.26.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Thursday 3.26.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Friday 3.27.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Friday 3.27.20 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    NONE.

    Have a great weekend ahead r/stocks.

    submitted by /u/bigbear0083
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