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    Saturday, February 29, 2020

    Stocks - Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 2nd, 2020

    Stocks - Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 2nd, 2020


    Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 2nd, 2020

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 07:52 AM PST

    Good Saturday morning to all of you here on r/stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week and month ahead.

    Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 2nd, 2020.

    Stock rout may deepen in the week ahead as coronavirus impact starts to show up in economic data - (Source)


    Stock investors just experienced one of the nastiest weeks in history that recorded the S&P 500′s fastest correction on record, but hold on tight, the market might have more room to fall as the coronavirus damage starts to creep into upcoming economic data, analysts warned.


    Major U.S. stock averages suffered their worst week since the financial crisis as fears about the coronavirus disrupting the global economy scared investors away from risk assets. However, stocks might still be searching for a bottom next week when investors grapple with a slew of economic data potentially dragged down by the outbreak.


    The Institute for Supply Management will release its manufacturing gauge on Monday. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will publish its latest Beige Book on Wednesday, which will detail anecdotal information on current economic conditions. Many expect U.S. manufacturing to have taken a hit from the coronavirus.


    "Look out for ISM surveys and Beige Book for early signs of COVID-19 impact," Michelle Meyer, Bank of America's head of U.S. economics, said in a note Friday. "It will take time for the 'hard' economic data to show the impact but we are already seeing evidence in early economic indicators."


    Weekend action? The outlook for the week could be changed this weekend by coronavirus headlines or by some sort of intervention by central banks. Expectations are rising on Wall Street that there could be some potential move from the Federal Reserve to get ahead of what could be another rough week.


    Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday the central bank is monitoring the coronavirus and pledged action if necessary. Meanwhile, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh recommended the Fed act as quickly as Sunday before the markets reopen. The market is already pricing in a 100% chance of at least one rate cut at the Fed's March policy meeting.


    Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, is worried about the cascading effect of coronavirus hitting upcoming economic data points. "ISM manufacturing is going to be widely scrutinized," he said.


    The ISM manufacturing index rose to a reading of 50.9 last month, the highest level since July (Any reading above 50 signals expansion.) Bank of America expects ISM manufacturing to pull back to 50.0 and said Fed Beige Book may provide "early insight" into the U.S. economic impact from the deadly virus.


    Cutting forecasts Next week, investors will also likely grapple with more warnings from major companies about broken supply chains and easing demand due to the outbreak.


    Apple, Microsoft, Nike and United Airlines have all sounded alarms that they will not meet their earnings and revenue guidance because of the virus.


    Wall Street strategists this week were quick to slash their forecasts on corporate earnings and the stock market. Barclays sees the S&P 500 to end the year at 3,000, down from a previous forecast of 3,300. The bank also expects a 2% drop in profits this year. Meanwhile, Goldman said it sees zero earnings growth for American companies in 2020.


    To be sure, some believe the steep stock rout has gone too far too fast, betting on at least a small rebound.


    "The level of panic has become very extreme and the level of downside price movement is pretty extreme. All of that is to me more of a sign that we are getting closer to the beginning of the end of it," Paulsen said.


    Another source of support could come from the Trump administration, where officials are discussing tax cuts, among other economic reactions, as one option to make up for the economic impact of the coronavirus, the Washington Post reported Friday.


    Still, investors will have to be on edge for a while now with more virus headlines, as well as the key Super Tuesday Democratic primaries. Some notable investors including "bond king" Jeffrey Gundlach blamed the rise of Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders for helping accelerate massive sell-off.


    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Indices for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

    (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

    Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

    Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #4!)

    Gauging Potential Economic Impact of Covid-19

    The coronavirus outbreak—or Covid-19 —has caused significant market volatility over the past week. Our approach as always is to focus on economic fundamentals first, but the uncertainty around the scope of the outbreak has made it very difficult to assess potential impact. The situation clearly is unsettling for investors as more cases are reported across Europe and Asia, and the first case of community transmission has been reported in the United States. As this was written, the S&P 500 Index was 10% below its February 19 all-time high.

    "The Covid-19 outbreak continues to significantly disrupt economic activity in China and throughout Asia," said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. "Given that China is such a big component of many global supply chains, we will almost certainly see weaker economic data globally over the next several months."

    Even as the situation remains fluid and very uncertain, we want to provide some sense of the potential U.S. and global economic impact.

    China: If virus containment holds in China, which is our base case, we could see something like a 3–4 percentage point impact to Chinese economic growth in the first quarter—possibly 2–3% gross domestic product (GDP) growth rather than 5–6%—followed by a much more modest hit in the second quarter. We think we would see a return to trend growth by the third quarter of 2020. This scenario would put China's 2020 GDP growth below the current 5.6% Bloomberg-tracked consensus, shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, and the Chinese government's previous 6% annual target. In other words, China's GDP growth in 2020 could end up closer to 5% than 6%.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    United States: At this point, our base case is that any economic disruption in the United States may be modest and short-lived, as we expect domestic efforts at containment to be more successful and have less economic disruption than in China. The outbreak may trim 0.25–0.5% from U.S. GDP over the next couple of months due to global supply chain disruption, falling export demand, and decreased tourism. If evidence emerges over the next month or so that the virus is being contained successfully, as we expect, the economic impact would likely be at the better end of that range (0.25%). In that scenario, damage to business and consumer confidence would be limited, setting the stage for a potential second-quarter rebound. We believe our 1.75% U.S. GDP growth forecast may still be achievable.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Global: In the short-term, the collective hits to global GDP from China, South Korea, Japan, and Italy—the countries where the outbreak impact has been greatest to date—may comprise 0.2–0.3% of global GDP. Our latest global GDP forecast of 3.5% from our Outlook 2020 publication is probably a bit too high in light of the latest news. We expect to update or reaffirm our economic forecasts once we have more clarity around Covid-19 impact in the weeks ahead.


    Can the Market Bottom on a Friday?

    It's often said that equity markets can't bottom on a Friday. One of the reasons for this line of thinking is that during a market downturn, no one wants to hold onto or bid up equities into a weekend for fear of further bad news. It may just be a matter of semantics, but based on that line of reasoning, the more accurate way to phrase it would be that markets can't bottom on a Thursday or rallies can't begin on a Friday. However you want to think about it, the chart below shows the number of times the closing low of a 10%+ correction has occurred on various weekdays.

    Of the 97 S&P 500 corrections since 1928, the day of the week that has marked the low close of a 10%+ decline the least frequently is actually Wednesday with only 10. Behind Wednesday, Friday has been the second most infrequent day of the week for a bottom (15), and Thursday is the only other day of the week where the S&P 500 has made a low on a closing basis less than 20 times. The days of the week where the S&P 500 most frequently bottoms are Monday and Tuesday with 26 and 28, respectively.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Regarding bear markets (20%+ declines), the trend is very similar. Bear markets have been the least likely to end on a Wednesday or Friday and most likely to end on a Tuesday.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Dividend Stock Spotlight: S&P 500's Highest Yielders From The Sell-Off

    Given the lower prices of stocks, dividend yields have been on the rise over the past couple of weeks. The dividend yield of the S&P 500 now stands at 2.12% which is the highest since June 3rd of last year when it reached the same level, but only stayed there for a single day. Prior to that, yields were only higher during the Q4 2018 sell-off through February of 2019. At the beginning of the current sell-off on February 19th, the S&P 500's yield was 26 bps lower at 1.86%.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Of the individual stocks in the index, there are now 81 stocks that have dividend yields of 4% or more. That compares to only 64 at the beginning of the sell-off. In the table below, we show the 25 highest yielders of the S&P 500 as well as the price change and change in the dividend yield since the 2/19 record high. As shown, there is only one stock, Macy's (M), that yields over 10% at the moment. This major retailer has fallen out of favor in the past few years but the stock has gotten crushed since the 2/19 market peak having fallen just under 21% in that time. That decline has raised the dividend yield by 2.44 percentage points, but there is one other stock that has seen its yield increase by even more. That stock is Occidental Petroleum (OXY), the second-highest yielder in the index (9.93%). Being an Energy name, OXY has fallen the most dramatically (-29.05%) since 2/19 of all the highest yielders.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    While there is a lot of overlap, in the table below we show the stocks that have seen their dividend yields rise the most as stocks have declined since 2/19. Again OXY and M top the list. While no other stocks have seen their dividend yields increase by more than 2 percentage points, there are another 17 who have risen by at least 1 percentage point. Notably, two cruise line stocks, Carnival (CCL) and Royal Caribbean (RCL) find themselves on this list. Carnival (CCL) now yields 6.28% while Royal Caribbean (RCL) yields 4.05%.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    The Biggest Losers (and a few winners)

    It is no secret that energy stocks have gotten crushed this year, and the list of the 25 worst-performing stocks in the Russell 1000 since the previous record close on February 19th is a prime example of this. Seven energy stocks find themselves on this list, two of which, Chesapeake Energy (CHK) and Kosmos Energy (KOS), take up the number one and two spots having fallen 45.73% and 41.95%, respectively since 2/19. CHK had already been weak headed into the broader market sell-off with a YTD loss on 2/19 over 40%; the past week has added fuel to the fire as it is now down 68.5% YTD. Continental (CLR), Centennial Resource Development (CDEV), Transocean (RIG), and Apergy (APY) are other energy stocks that were down 20% or more on the year headed into this sell-off, and each one has fallen another 20%+ since the 19th. While most of the other biggest losers since 2/19 had already been down on the year, there are some that have seen their gains in 2020 get erased due to this sell-off like Nutanix (NTNX), Qurate Retail (QRTEA), Anaplan (PLAN), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Chemours (CC), and CommScope (COMM). Some other notable losers of this group have been those heavily reliant on travel like American Airlines (AAL) and the cruise line stocks like Norwegian (NCLH) and Royal Caribbean (RCL).

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Given how breadth has been over the past week, it may not come as any surprise that since the February 19th high there are only 18 stocks of 1000 in the Russell 1000 index that are higher. Four of those are up less than one percent. In the table below we show all of these stocks. Given the sell-off has centered around coronavirus fears, it is sensical that a coronavirus vaccine developer Moderna (MRNA) is the best performing stock since 2/19. What is amazing is there was not much momentum with this name headed into the sell-off. As of 2/19, the stock was actually down 3.27% year to date, but as the Covid-19 saga has moved along it is now up well north of 30% on the year. A few other health care names like Regeneron (REGN) and Gilead (GILD) have also benefited from the coronavirus.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    The histogram below shows the distribution of performance of Russell 1000 stocks since 2/19. As mentioned above, there are very few stocks in the index that are up since the 2/19 high. The highest share of stocks are down between 10% and 15% while the next highest share are down between 5% and 10%. Of the worst decliners, there are 75 stocks that have fallen over 20%.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Looking at the individual sectors, again Energy was extremely weak even before equities sold off. On 2/19, the average Energy stock in the Russell 1000 in that sector was down 15.6% YTD. While they hadn't tipped into the red yet, Consumer Staples were only up 1 bp.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Since the 2/19 high for the US equity market, the average stock in the Russell 1,000 is down well over 10%. The average Energy stock is down the most at -21%, followed by Communication Services and Technology at -13%. Consumer Staples stocks have performed the best with an average decline of 8.9%.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    This leaves every sector down year-to-date. Utilities have generally outperformed only falling 2.3%, but the sector is sitting on a loss nonetheless. Of the worst sectors, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and of course Energy have fallen 10% or more.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Global Equity Benchmarks Distance From YTD Highs

    The recent equity sell-off has clearly been global in nature as concerns of a global pandemic rise. Perhaps the most surprising aspect of the way equities have sold off recently is that the country that has been hardest hit by the virus is closer to its YTD high than any other major global equity benchmark. The chart below shows the distance that each major global equity benchmark has declined relative to its YTD high. China's Shanghai Composite is down just 4.45%, which is better than any other country shown. Sure, you could argue that the Chinese government is manipulating the market and prohibiting investors from selling, but even the ETF that tracks the CSI 300 (ASHR) is down less than 6%, so anyone could go in and trade at these levels. Manipulated or not, the numbers are the numbers.

    At the bottom of the list, Brazil's Ibovespa index is down more than any other country at 11.6% and that country has only reported one confirmed case so far. With respect to US indices, the Russell 2000 is down the second most of any major global benchmark (-9.19%), while the Nasdaq is down the fourth most at 8.68%. Even the S&P 500 is down close to 8%. These weak US readings come in a backdrop where there have only been 57 confirmed cases and all but a couple are instances where Americans contracted the virus outside of the United States and have been brought to the US under quarantine. Join Bespoke Premium to access Bespoke's most actionable stock market research and analysis.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Just Four S&P 500 Stocks Up This Week

    There's still another day left in the week, but unless things improve on Friday this will go down as one of the worst weeks for US equities in history. Since WWII, there have only been four other weeks where the S&P 500 was down more than 10% in a given week. On a related note, there are also only four stocks in the entire S&P 500 that are positive for the week! Leading the way higher, Regeneron (REGN) is up a healthy 7.1% while Gilead (GILD) is up just over 4%. Behind these two, the only other stocks that are higher now than they were at last Friday's close are Clorox (CLX) and CME Group (CME).

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    On the downside, there are a lot more losers, but in the interest of space, below we have only listed the 17 stocks in the S&P 500 that are down over 20% this week alone. Looking through the names on the list, the cruise lines are well represented with Royal Caribbean (RCL), Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH), and Carnival (CCL). Besides these names, American Airlines (AAL) is down 26%, while Live Nation (LYV) is down 22.2%.

    One thing we've heard a number of people argue the last few days is that some of the weakness this week is related to the increasing likelihood that Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic nomination. If that's the case, why is not a single one of the worst-performing stocks from the Health Care sector, and why is the Health Care sector the third best performing sector this week and one of just four that is not down 10% so far this week?

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-


    • $TGT
    • $PLUG
    • $JD
    • $ZM
    • $COST
    • $TLRY
    • $AZO
    • $KSS
    • $SPLK
    • $DLTR
    • $VEEV
    • $XRAY
    • $SE
    • $MRVL
    • $FOLD
    • $KR
    • $OKTA
    • $STNE
    • $BLDP
    • $BURL
    • $CIEN
    • $ALBO
    • $MAXR
    • $ANF
    • $ITCI
    • $FNKO
    • $JWN
    • $EPRT
    • $VIPS
    • $GTT
    • $CORE
    • $BNFT
    • $LVGO
    • $EVRG
    • $ROST
    • $EGRX
    • $AOBC
    • $TGLS
    • $ATRS
    • $HPE
    • $NWN
    • $WVE
    • $WSC

    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

    Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:


    Monday 3.2.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Monday 3.2.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 3.3.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 3.3.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 3.4.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 3.4.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Thursday 3.5.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Thursday 3.5.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Friday 3.6.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Friday 3.6.20 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    NONE.


    Target Corp. $103.00

    Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, March 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.66 per share on revenue of $23.49 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.68 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.50% with revenue increasing by 2.23%. On Friday, February 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,641 contracts of the $100.00 put expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Plug Power, Inc. $4.34

    Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, March 5, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.06 per share on revenue of $90.15 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.05) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 25.00% with revenue increasing by 50.70%. Short interest has increased by 29.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 59.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 39.8% above its 200 day moving average of $3.10. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, January 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,010 contracts of the $5.00 put expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 20.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.1% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    JD.com, Inc. $38.51

    JD.com, Inc. (JD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:00 AM ET on Monday, March 2, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.44 per share on revenue of $23.81 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1,000.00% with revenue increasing by 21.41%. Short interest has decreased by 9.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.4% above its 200 day moving average of $32.25. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, February 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,001 contracts of the $38.00 put expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.3% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Zoom Video Communications, Inc. $105.00

    Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, March 4, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.07 per share on revenue of $176.36 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 82% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.07 per share on revenue of $175.00 million to $176.00 million. The stock has drifted higher by 63.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.0% above its 200 day moving average of $81.40. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 12.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Costco Wholesale Corp. $281.14

    Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, March 5, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.06 per share on revenue of $38.34 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 2.49% with revenue increasing by 8.32%. Short interest has decreased by 9.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.6% below its 200 day moving average of $285.72. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, February 27, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,125 contracts of the $285.00 put expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.8% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Tilray, Inc. $14.43

    Tilray, Inc. (TLRY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, March 2, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.34 per share on revenue of $55.35 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.40) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 51% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 3.03% with revenue increasing by 256.38%. Short interest has increased by 25.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 32.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 49.5% below its 200 day moving average of $28.57. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,011 contracts of the $15.00 call expiring on Friday, April 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 26.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.5% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    AutoZone, Inc. -

    AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Tuesday, March 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $11.87 per share on revenue of $2.58 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $12.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 3.31% with revenue increasing by 5.28%. Short interest has decreased by 7.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.3% below its 200 day moving average of $1,113.49. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.1% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Kohl's Corporation $39.15

    Kohl's Corporation (KSS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, March 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.92 per share on revenue of $6.80 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.91 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 40% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.29% with revenue decreasing by 0.34%. Short interest has decreased by 2.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 19.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.9% below its 200 day moving average of $48.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, February 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 809 contracts of the $40.00 put expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.5% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Splunk Inc. $147.33

    Splunk Inc. (SPLK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, March 4, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.96 per share on revenue of $783.94 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.00 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 91% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of approximately $780.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 31.51% with revenue increasing by 26.02%. Short interest has increased by 2.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.8% above its 200 day moving average of $132.95. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,414 contracts of the $155.00 call expiring on Friday, March 6, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.6% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. $83.03

    Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. (DLTR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, March 4, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.75 per share on revenue of $6.39 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.70 to $1.80 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 9.33% with revenue increasing by 2.98%. Short interest has decreased by 7.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 13.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.9% below its 200 day moving average of $101.15. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,974 contracts of the $85.00 call expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    DISCUSS!

    What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?


    I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/stocks.

    submitted by /u/bigbear0083
    [link] [comments]

    Department of Health confirms first coronavirus death in Washington state

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 10:22 AM PST

    You all are very contradicting.

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 06:11 AM PST

    I've been reading this subreddit for about 2 months. During that time all I could read was people saying don't buy now were in an unknow bull run, a correction is coming. (correction = 10% decline from the high) Now that's happening and you're all saying don't buy. WTF lmao. Who cares if its caused by the coronavirus it's happening. Get in on your discount people and if it continues to go down keep buying. We're gonna make money, especially ETFs based.

    Happy Buying!

    submitted by /u/gypsyphotos
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    China pmi out now, worse then 2008, a new record low

    Posted: 28 Feb 2020 07:27 PM PST

    https://amp.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3052985/coronavirus-chinas-factories-activity-plunges-all-time-low

    China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 35.7 in February from 50.0 in January, below the 38.8 figure reported in November 2008

    The non-manufacturing PMI – a gauge of sentiment in the services and construction sectors – also dropped to 29.6 from 54.1 in January, the lowest since November 2011

    Bloomberg and the average esimate is around 45, so mostly not priced in, monday should be red.

    A big F to the bulls for holding through this weekend..

    submitted by /u/hoseex999
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    Laugh at my pain... I have to be the only dumbass the shorted a stock that shot up 300%

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 10:32 AM PST

    I shorted IBIO at .64 then again at $2 thinking it was going to go down... I know I know, this was a scalp play that got away from me. In all I lost $700 2 days... off of 2 short calls with $300... lmao I know it's not thousands but percentage wise it's a good laugh...

    submitted by /u/Rmcreator
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    U.S. reports its first coronavirus death

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 11:46 AM PST

    Well, let the panic ensue.

    The U.S. has reported its first coronavirus death in Seattle. Washington State has confirmed it is monitoring hundreds of cases. Oregon has also reported community transmission.

    What are the chances this will impact markets on Monday? Send everybody back into the coronavirus stocks? And everyone to declare the end of the world?

    submitted by /u/libertyhound23
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    Is this really a “dip”?

    Posted: 28 Feb 2020 10:36 PM PST

    People are calling this is a "dip", but i am not sure. As a manager in the Port of Los Angeles, i can see that the cargo volume is not returning after the Chinese New Year. Many vessels have canceled because they didn't have cargo to sail. The ships that are showing up are empty and we are doing half the moves to off load them. The longshoremen who run the equipment are running on special rules now because there is no work in the harbor.

    Overseas factories are not producing products. And this may cause further problems down the supply chain.

    All the above is not normal.

    With this happening I don't think we are looking at just a correction that should be bought into. I think this is a good time to go to cash and wait for a return to stability.

    I personally prefer to loose out on some profits when talking about my retirement nest egg.

    TLDR: cargo isn't moving. Save your $ for stability.

    submitted by /u/ShaBoogy
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    FDA Releases New Testing Policy for Coronavirus (CODX)

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 10:17 AM PST

    FDA just released a new testing policy for coronavirus this morning. Allows labs to immediately use their own validated tests without having to go through FDA approval. This is great news for the CODX stock as its nearing FDA approval for its testing soon anyways and the less strict policy on testing will allow the CODX tests to be distributed easily.

    Source:

    https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-issues-new-policy-help-expedite-availability-diagnostics

    submitted by /u/Youngs_Modulus
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    Are there any coronavirus stocks that aren't pumped yet?

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 02:00 PM PST

    Are there any coronavirus stocks that aren't pumped yet?

    Preferably penny stocks

    I'll invest 3-10% of my net worth into them

    submitted by /u/enjoyingmychoice
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    Nursing home outbreak

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 02:41 PM PST

    107 patients and 180 staff in this long term care in washington is infected. Yikes.. This is going to spread like wildfire. Goodbye to my stocks. Im going to take a loss and wait for the bottom.

    submitted by /u/Jakegordon99
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    Costco

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 01:47 PM PST

    Just got back from Costco and holy shit the entire city is there. Q1 Earnings are gonna be insane.

    submitted by /u/JohnCena206
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    High dividend stocks to buy now

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 05:17 AM PST

    I want to take the chance of the current dip and change my portfolio to a more dividend driven one because that's how I want it to have in the future.

    Rn I don't really have that many high dividend stocks apart from Verizon, which is a great stock really. So I could buy some more stocks there, or is AT&T the better choice?

    Also in the oil sector Exxon Mobile seems to be very promising right now, I have 4k to spend, what would you do?

    submitted by /u/idkreally312
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    Second case of coronavirus community transmission in California

    Posted: 28 Feb 2020 03:22 PM PST

    What exactly is the definition of "beating the market"?

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 08:53 AM PST

    The way I see it, there are 2 possible definitions, and I'm not sure which one is used more often.

    1) On each year during n-year period the returns of your portfolio have exceeded that of S&P 500.

    2) After n years total returns of your portfolio have exceeded those of S&P 500.

    To illustrate what I mean:

    Let's say S&P 500 returned 5% on year 1, 7% on year 2 and 9% on year 3. Meanwhile your portfolio returned 4% on year 1, 8% on year 2 and 10% on year 3. Even though on one year you have failed to outperform, in total, by the end of those 3 years, your portfolio returned more than S&P 500 during that period. So by definiton №1 you have failed, but by definition №2 you have outperformed the market.

    There is a big difference between the two. And obviously №2 is much easier to do than №1. So which one is the most common definition?

    submitted by /u/ClarityInMadness
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    Moving to bond ETFs

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 11:28 AM PST

    Hi, I am considering moving some of cash money to a bond tracked ETF due to the whole coronavirus scare. One ETF bond I am considering is the iShare USD Treasury bond 7-10years as an example.

    I don't know to much about ETF bonds in terms of the threshold for investing in them but I can see from a timeline graph that it has naturally increased because everybody has moved to bonds recently and where it is beginning to reach its all time high. My concern is (like with stocks), I am always skeptical in investing in something that has so much momentum behind it and this could potentially be a 'short term' investment if the whole coronavirus scares quieten down and then could lead to it crashing down.

    So my question is this normal to invest in an ETF bond at this high volume point, is it safe for a short term investment?

    submitted by /u/wincysss1
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    Watch list

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 02:45 PM PST

    I am watching a ton of stocks, I am gonna unload here soon when this corona virus starts to go on the decline, which could be months, but the opportunity excites me. So many stocks are great prices, and may even get lower. I am gonna be looking at, SYK(great stock), DIS, WBA, MDT, JBLU (anything travel related), BIG, WMT, SNAP, LYFT, LYV, UBER, KR, WEN(had the breakfast today and not bad at all), SBUX, CVS, MIK. If tesla goes down to something like 500 or so, you bet I am gonna jump on that ship. Just getting at least 10-100 stocks a piece, and if all goes up in the next couple months, profit is gonna be huge. Of course, some might not go up or might go up or down but I just can't not invest at a time like this. The hardest part of this is gonna be watching the market in the next couple weeks/months to see when the best time is gonna be a buy. That is where my question is, and we may not have a answer on when is the time to buy at the low. This is my watch list, what is on your watch list for the next couple weeks? Or even this week?

    submitted by /u/tommy2figers
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    Well, Alpha Pro Tech is probably dead in the water

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 05:53 AM PST

    I guess if you bought at a good time, then you should be hitting the sell button Alpha Pro Tech.

    3M announced that it is ramping up production, which explains APT's huge plunge on Friday (from $41.95 to $17).

    The consensus I've seen is that the coronavirus will only get worse and the U.S. government is spending $8 billion to fight it.

    What do you guys think? I think it was yesterday before the plunge a gentleman wrote about shorting the stock.

    What a week to be alive and in the market!

    submitted by /u/libertyhound23
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    First US Corvid 19 confirmed, stocks will react again

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 02:30 PM PST

    Sadly to hear that Washington state reported 1st victim from Corvid 19 today. We need to be careful not to contract or give something that we will regret. Here is the link.

    This is an investment link I am under the impression these garment, respirator, and immune vaccine stocks will go crazy again next week. Hand wipe door knobs, keyboard, things others shared, wash hands with soap frequently, stay 6 ft away from people, Clorox is also good. Have a healthy weekend.

    submitted by /u/Vast_Cricket
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    Comparison of Equity Research Reports

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 02:03 PM PST

    As a newbie investor, I would like to understand how do different equity research reports compare?

    1. Schwab Equity Ratings
    2. Credit Suisse Research
    3. MorningStar Equity Research
    4. Argus
    5. CFRA
    6. MarketEdge
    7. Reuters
    8. Zacks
    9. JP Morgan
    submitted by /u/simplyticklish
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    China Posts Weakest Factory Activity on Record

    Posted: 28 Feb 2020 10:56 PM PST

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-29/china-feb-manufacturing-pmi-at-35-7-est-45-0

    MANUFACTURING SURVEY DETAILS

    Production index at 27.8; New order index at 29.3; new export index at 28.7 Raw material inventory index at 33.9; Employment index at 31.8; Supplier delivery time index at 32.1.

    Progress on that front has been made in recent weeks, with Bloomberg Economics estimating Chinese factories were operating at 60% to 70% of capacity this week. The statistics bureau said Saturday that as of Feb. 25, the work resumption rate at mid- and large-enterprises in the PMI survey was 78.9%, and will rise to 90.8% by the end of next month. At medium- and large-scale manufacturing companies, it was 85.6% and will rise to 94.7% by end-March, the NBS said.

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    I decided to short SPCE on Friday, 100PUT $14 20/3 and 200PUT $8 20/3. Need help.

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 01:51 PM PST

    This is my first time at options play, so far 14500 dollars at stake, and my entire portfolio is worth 22K.I just want to pay my credit card bills and student loan. Can someone please help me with deciding when to sell these options, I'm a nervous wreck right now.

    submitted by /u/elon-420
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    Does TOS have any sort of PDT protection feature?

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 01:31 PM PST

    One thing I feel RH did really well was introduce their PDT protection feature, for those of us who lose track of things and make a few too many day trades without thinking.

    I know TOS isn't a playtime app like RH with all the hand holding, but is there anything similar to avoid the 90 flags? It'd be really great to get a popup preventing me from making that trade before submitting myself to the restriction.

    Yes, I know I can switch to a cash account too!

    submitted by /u/Bigmealplantime
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    Thoughts on $GILD?

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 01:04 PM PST

    Trump stated that pharmaceutical companies will meet with him on Monday to discuss a cure. Would $GILD be good for placing some calls?

    submitted by /u/RyBooch
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    Some news for fuelcell investors

    Posted: 29 Feb 2020 12:44 PM PST

    https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/This-Supermajor-Is-Diving-Into-The-Green-Hydrogen-Game.html

    I think this is pretty big with big oil all tanking. This will get the attention of the rest and could turn into a race. Great for Plug, Ballard , Fcell etc.🔌🔌🔌🔌

    submitted by /u/2relentless2die
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