| Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 2nd, 2020 Posted: 29 Feb 2020 07:49 AM PST Good Saturday morning to all of you here on r/StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week and month ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 2nd, 2020. Stock rout may deepen in the week ahead as coronavirus impact starts to show up in economic data - (Source)
Stock investors just experienced one of the nastiest weeks in history that recorded the S&P 500′s fastest correction on record, but hold on tight, the market might have more room to fall as the coronavirus damage starts to creep into upcoming economic data, analysts warned.
Major U.S. stock averages suffered their worst week since the financial crisis as fears about the coronavirus disrupting the global economy scared investors away from risk assets. However, stocks might still be searching for a bottom next week when investors grapple with a slew of economic data potentially dragged down by the outbreak.
The Institute for Supply Management will release its manufacturing gauge on Monday. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will publish its latest Beige Book on Wednesday, which will detail anecdotal information on current economic conditions. Many expect U.S. manufacturing to have taken a hit from the coronavirus.
"Look out for ISM surveys and Beige Book for early signs of COVID-19 impact," Michelle Meyer, Bank of America's head of U.S. economics, said in a note Friday. "It will take time for the 'hard' economic data to show the impact but we are already seeing evidence in early economic indicators."
Weekend action? The outlook for the week could be changed this weekend by coronavirus headlines or by some sort of intervention by central banks. Expectations are rising on Wall Street that there could be some potential move from the Federal Reserve to get ahead of what could be another rough week.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday the central bank is monitoring the coronavirus and pledged action if necessary. Meanwhile, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh recommended the Fed act as quickly as Sunday before the markets reopen. The market is already pricing in a 100% chance of at least one rate cut at the Fed's March policy meeting.
Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, is worried about the cascading effect of coronavirus hitting upcoming economic data points. "ISM manufacturing is going to be widely scrutinized," he said.
The ISM manufacturing index rose to a reading of 50.9 last month, the highest level since July (Any reading above 50 signals expansion.) Bank of America expects ISM manufacturing to pull back to 50.0 and said Fed Beige Book may provide "early insight" into the U.S. economic impact from the deadly virus.
Cutting forecasts Next week, investors will also likely grapple with more warnings from major companies about broken supply chains and easing demand due to the outbreak.
Apple, Microsoft, Nike and United Airlines have all sounded alarms that they will not meet their earnings and revenue guidance because of the virus.
Wall Street strategists this week were quick to slash their forecasts on corporate earnings and the stock market. Barclays sees the S&P 500 to end the year at 3,000, down from a previous forecast of 3,300. The bank also expects a 2% drop in profits this year. Meanwhile, Goldman said it sees zero earnings growth for American companies in 2020.
To be sure, some believe the steep stock rout has gone too far too fast, betting on at least a small rebound.
"The level of panic has become very extreme and the level of downside price movement is pretty extreme. All of that is to me more of a sign that we are getting closer to the beginning of the end of it," Paulsen said.
Another source of support could come from the Trump administration, where officials are discussing tax cuts, among other economic reactions, as one option to make up for the economic impact of the coronavirus, the Washington Post reported Friday.
Still, investors will have to be on edge for a while now with more virus headlines, as well as the key Super Tuesday Democratic primaries. Some notable investors including "bond king" Jeffrey Gundlach blamed the rise of Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders for helping accelerate massive sell-off.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices for this past week: Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close: S&P Sectors for the Past Week: Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close: Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close: Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week: Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week: Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
Gauging Potential Economic Impact of Covid-19 The coronavirus outbreak—or Covid-19 —has caused significant market volatility over the past week. Our approach as always is to focus on economic fundamentals first, but the uncertainty around the scope of the outbreak has made it very difficult to assess potential impact. The situation clearly is unsettling for investors as more cases are reported across Europe and Asia, and the first case of community transmission has been reported in the United States. As this was written, the S&P 500 Index was 10% below its February 19 all-time high. "The Covid-19 outbreak continues to significantly disrupt economic activity in China and throughout Asia," said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. "Given that China is such a big component of many global supply chains, we will almost certainly see weaker economic data globally over the next several months." Even as the situation remains fluid and very uncertain, we want to provide some sense of the potential U.S. and global economic impact. China: If virus containment holds in China, which is our base case, we could see something like a 3–4 percentage point impact to Chinese economic growth in the first quarter—possibly 2–3% gross domestic product (GDP) growth rather than 5–6%—followed by a much more modest hit in the second quarter. We think we would see a return to trend growth by the third quarter of 2020. This scenario would put China's 2020 GDP growth below the current 5.6% Bloomberg-tracked consensus, shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, and the Chinese government's previous 6% annual target. In other words, China's GDP growth in 2020 could end up closer to 5% than 6%. United States: At this point, our base case is that any economic disruption in the United States may be modest and short-lived, as we expect domestic efforts at containment to be more successful and have less economic disruption than in China. The outbreak may trim 0.25–0.5% from U.S. GDP over the next couple of months due to global supply chain disruption, falling export demand, and decreased tourism. If evidence emerges over the next month or so that the virus is being contained successfully, as we expect, the economic impact would likely be at the better end of that range (0.25%). In that scenario, damage to business and consumer confidence would be limited, setting the stage for a potential second-quarter rebound. We believe our 1.75% U.S. GDP growth forecast may still be achievable. Global: In the short-term, the collective hits to global GDP from China, South Korea, Japan, and Italy—the countries where the outbreak impact has been greatest to date—may comprise 0.2–0.3% of global GDP. Our latest global GDP forecast of 3.5% from our Outlook 2020 publication is probably a bit too high in light of the latest news. We expect to update or reaffirm our economic forecasts once we have more clarity around Covid-19 impact in the weeks ahead.
Can the Market Bottom on a Friday? It's often said that equity markets can't bottom on a Friday. One of the reasons for this line of thinking is that during a market downturn, no one wants to hold onto or bid up equities into a weekend for fear of further bad news. It may just be a matter of semantics, but based on that line of reasoning, the more accurate way to phrase it would be that markets can't bottom on a Thursday or rallies can't begin on a Friday. However you want to think about it, the chart below shows the number of times the closing low of a 10%+ correction has occurred on various weekdays. Of the 97 S&P 500 corrections since 1928, the day of the week that has marked the low close of a 10%+ decline the least frequently is actually Wednesday with only 10. Behind Wednesday, Friday has been the second most infrequent day of the week for a bottom (15), and Thursday is the only other day of the week where the S&P 500 has made a low on a closing basis less than 20 times. The days of the week where the S&P 500 most frequently bottoms are Monday and Tuesday with 26 and 28, respectively. Regarding bear markets (20%+ declines), the trend is very similar. Bear markets have been the least likely to end on a Wednesday or Friday and most likely to end on a Tuesday.
Dividend Stock Spotlight: S&P 500's Highest Yielders From The Sell-Off Given the lower prices of stocks, dividend yields have been on the rise over the past couple of weeks. The dividend yield of the S&P 500 now stands at 2.12% which is the highest since June 3rd of last year when it reached the same level, but only stayed there for a single day. Prior to that, yields were only higher during the Q4 2018 sell-off through February of 2019. At the beginning of the current sell-off on February 19th, the S&P 500's yield was 26 bps lower at 1.86%. Of the individual stocks in the index, there are now 81 stocks that have dividend yields of 4% or more. That compares to only 64 at the beginning of the sell-off. In the table below, we show the 25 highest yielders of the S&P 500 as well as the price change and change in the dividend yield since the 2/19 record high. As shown, there is only one stock, Macy's (M), that yields over 10% at the moment. This major retailer has fallen out of favor in the past few years but the stock has gotten crushed since the 2/19 market peak having fallen just under 21% in that time. That decline has raised the dividend yield by 2.44 percentage points, but there is one other stock that has seen its yield increase by even more. That stock is Occidental Petroleum (OXY), the second-highest yielder in the index (9.93%). Being an Energy name, OXY has fallen the most dramatically (-29.05%) since 2/19 of all the highest yielders. While there is a lot of overlap, in the table below we show the stocks that have seen their dividend yields rise the most as stocks have declined since 2/19. Again OXY and M top the list. While no other stocks have seen their dividend yields increase by more than 2 percentage points, there are another 17 who have risen by at least 1 percentage point. Notably, two cruise line stocks, Carnival (CCL) and Royal Caribbean (RCL) find themselves on this list. Carnival (CCL) now yields 6.28% while Royal Caribbean (RCL) yields 4.05%.
The Biggest Losers (and a few winners) It is no secret that energy stocks have gotten crushed this year, and the list of the 25 worst-performing stocks in the Russell 1000 since the previous record close on February 19th is a prime example of this. Seven energy stocks find themselves on this list, two of which, Chesapeake Energy (CHK) and Kosmos Energy (KOS), take up the number one and two spots having fallen 45.73% and 41.95%, respectively since 2/19. CHK had already been weak headed into the broader market sell-off with a YTD loss on 2/19 over 40%; the past week has added fuel to the fire as it is now down 68.5% YTD. Continental (CLR), Centennial Resource Development (CDEV), Transocean (RIG), and Apergy (APY) are other energy stocks that were down 20% or more on the year headed into this sell-off, and each one has fallen another 20%+ since the 19th. While most of the other biggest losers since 2/19 had already been down on the year, there are some that have seen their gains in 2020 get erased due to this sell-off like Nutanix (NTNX), Qurate Retail (QRTEA), Anaplan (PLAN), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Chemours (CC), and CommScope (COMM). Some other notable losers of this group have been those heavily reliant on travel like American Airlines (AAL) and the cruise line stocks like Norwegian (NCLH) and Royal Caribbean (RCL). Given how breadth has been over the past week, it may not come as any surprise that since the February 19th high there are only 18 stocks of 1000 in the Russell 1000 index that are higher. Four of those are up less than one percent. In the table below we show all of these stocks. Given the sell-off has centered around coronavirus fears, it is sensical that a coronavirus vaccine developer Moderna (MRNA) is the best performing stock since 2/19. What is amazing is there was not much momentum with this name headed into the sell-off. As of 2/19, the stock was actually down 3.27% year to date, but as the Covid-19 saga has moved along it is now up well north of 30% on the year. A few other health care names like Regeneron (REGN) and Gilead (GILD) have also benefited from the coronavirus. The histogram below shows the distribution of performance of Russell 1000 stocks since 2/19. As mentioned above, there are very few stocks in the index that are up since the 2/19 high. The highest share of stocks are down between 10% and 15% while the next highest share are down between 5% and 10%. Of the worst decliners, there are 75 stocks that have fallen over 20%. Looking at the individual sectors, again Energy was extremely weak even before equities sold off. On 2/19, the average Energy stock in the Russell 1000 in that sector was down 15.6% YTD. While they hadn't tipped into the red yet, Consumer Staples were only up 1 bp. Since the 2/19 high for the US equity market, the average stock in the Russell 1,000 is down well over 10%. The average Energy stock is down the most at -21%, followed by Communication Services and Technology at -13%. Consumer Staples stocks have performed the best with an average decline of 8.9%. This leaves every sector down year-to-date. Utilities have generally outperformed only falling 2.3%, but the sector is sitting on a loss nonetheless. Of the worst sectors, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and of course Energy have fallen 10% or more.
Global Equity Benchmarks Distance From YTD Highs The recent equity sell-off has clearly been global in nature as concerns of a global pandemic rise. Perhaps the most surprising aspect of the way equities have sold off recently is that the country that has been hardest hit by the virus is closer to its YTD high than any other major global equity benchmark. The chart below shows the distance that each major global equity benchmark has declined relative to its YTD high. China's Shanghai Composite is down just 4.45%, which is better than any other country shown. Sure, you could argue that the Chinese government is manipulating the market and prohibiting investors from selling, but even the ETF that tracks the CSI 300 (ASHR) is down less than 6%, so anyone could go in and trade at these levels. Manipulated or not, the numbers are the numbers. At the bottom of the list, Brazil's Ibovespa index is down more than any other country at 11.6% and that country has only reported one confirmed case so far. With respect to US indices, the Russell 2000 is down the second most of any major global benchmark (-9.19%), while the Nasdaq is down the fourth most at 8.68%. Even the S&P 500 is down close to 8%. These weak US readings come in a backdrop where there have only been 57 confirmed cases and all but a couple are instances where Americans contracted the virus outside of the United States and have been brought to the US under quarantine. Join Bespoke Premium to access Bespoke's most actionable stock market research and analysis.
Just Four S&P 500 Stocks Up This Week There's still another day left in the week, but unless things improve on Friday this will go down as one of the worst weeks for US equities in history. Since WWII, there have only been four other weeks where the S&P 500 was down more than 10% in a given week. On a related note, there are also only four stocks in the entire S&P 500 that are positive for the week! Leading the way higher, Regeneron (REGN) is up a healthy 7.1% while Gilead (GILD) is up just over 4%. Behind these two, the only other stocks that are higher now than they were at last Friday's close are Clorox (CLX) and CME Group (CME). On the downside, there are a lot more losers, but in the interest of space, below we have only listed the 17 stocks in the S&P 500 that are down over 20% this week alone. Looking through the names on the list, the cruise lines are well represented with Royal Caribbean (RCL), Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH), and Carnival (CCL). Besides these names, American Airlines (AAL) is down 26%, while Live Nation (LYV) is down 22.2%. One thing we've heard a number of people argue the last few days is that some of the weakness this week is related to the increasing likelihood that Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic nomination. If that's the case, why is not a single one of the worst-performing stocks from the Health Care sector, and why is the Health Care sector the third best performing sector this week and one of just four that is not down 10% so far this week?
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending February 28th, 2020 STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3.1.20
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
- $TGT
- $PLUG
- $JD
- $ZM
- $COST
- $TLRY
- $AZO
- $KSS
- $SPLK
- $DLTR
- $VEEV
- $XRAY
- $SE
- $MRVL
- $FOLD
- $KR
- $OKTA
- $STNE
- $BLDP
- $BURL
- $CIEN
- $ALBO
- $MAXR
- $ANF
- $ITCI
- $FNKO
- $JWN
- $EPRT
- $VIPS
- $GTT
- $CORE
- $BNFT
- $LVGO
- $EVRG
- $ROST
- $EGRX
- $AOBC
- $TGLS
- $ATRS
- $HPE
- $NWN
- $WVE
- $WSC
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 3.2.20 Before Market Open: Monday 3.2.20 After Market Close:
Tuesday 3.3.20 Before Market Open: Tuesday 3.3.20 After Market Close:
Wednesday 3.4.20 Before Market Open: Wednesday 3.4.20 After Market Close:
Thursday 3.5.20 Before Market Open: Thursday 3.5.20 After Market Close:
Friday 3.6.20 Before Market Open:
Friday 3.6.20 After Market Close: ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]()) NONE.
Target Corp. $103.00 Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, March 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.66 per share on revenue of $23.49 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.68 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.50% with revenue increasing by 2.23%. On Friday, February 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,641 contracts of the $100.00 put expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020.
Plug Power, Inc. $4.34 Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, March 5, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.06 per share on revenue of $90.15 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.05) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 25.00% with revenue increasing by 50.70%. Short interest has increased by 29.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 59.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 39.8% above its 200 day moving average of $3.10. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, January 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,010 contracts of the $5.00 put expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 20.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.1% move in recent quarters.
JD.com, Inc. $38.51 JD.com, Inc. (JD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:00 AM ET on Monday, March 2, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.44 per share on revenue of $23.81 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1,000.00% with revenue increasing by 21.41%. Short interest has decreased by 9.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.4% above its 200 day moving average of $32.25. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, February 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,001 contracts of the $38.00 put expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.3% move in recent quarters.
Zoom Video Communications, Inc. $105.00 Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, March 4, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.07 per share on revenue of $176.36 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 82% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.07 per share on revenue of $175.00 million to $176.00 million. The stock has drifted higher by 63.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.0% above its 200 day moving average of $81.40. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 12.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.
Costco Wholesale Corp. $281.14 Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, March 5, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.06 per share on revenue of $38.34 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 2.49% with revenue increasing by 8.32%. Short interest has decreased by 9.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.6% below its 200 day moving average of $285.72. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, February 27, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,125 contracts of the $285.00 put expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.8% move in recent quarters.
Tilray, Inc. $14.43 Tilray, Inc. (TLRY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, March 2, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.34 per share on revenue of $55.35 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.40) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 51% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 3.03% with revenue increasing by 256.38%. Short interest has increased by 25.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 32.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 49.5% below its 200 day moving average of $28.57. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,011 contracts of the $15.00 call expiring on Friday, April 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 26.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.5% move in recent quarters.
AutoZone, Inc. - AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Tuesday, March 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $11.87 per share on revenue of $2.58 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $12.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 3.31% with revenue increasing by 5.28%. Short interest has decreased by 7.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.3% below its 200 day moving average of $1,113.49. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.1% move in recent quarters.
Kohl's Corporation $39.15 Kohl's Corporation (KSS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, March 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.92 per share on revenue of $6.80 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.91 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 40% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.29% with revenue decreasing by 0.34%. Short interest has decreased by 2.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 19.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.9% below its 200 day moving average of $48.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, February 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 809 contracts of the $40.00 put expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.5% move in recent quarters.
Splunk Inc. $147.33 Splunk Inc. (SPLK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, March 4, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.96 per share on revenue of $783.94 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.00 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 91% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of approximately $780.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 31.51% with revenue increasing by 26.02%. Short interest has increased by 2.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.8% above its 200 day moving average of $132.95. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,414 contracts of the $155.00 call expiring on Friday, March 6, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.6% move in recent quarters.
Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. $83.03 Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. (DLTR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, March 4, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.75 per share on revenue of $6.39 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.70 to $1.80 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 9.33% with revenue increasing by 2.98%. Short interest has decreased by 7.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 13.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.9% below its 200 day moving average of $101.15. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,974 contracts of the $85.00 call expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.
DISCUSS! What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/StockMarket. submitted by /u/bigbear0083 [link] [comments] |
| Americans are skipping medically necessary prescriptions because of the cost Posted: 29 Feb 2020 06:38 PM PST |
| Market on Monday Posted: 29 Feb 2020 11:05 AM PST With a run to close out the week and the fed and Trump trying to boost confidence, do you feel like the market will once again drop on Monday or do you feel like it will bounce back with its momentum to end the week. submitted by /u/jamespogo [link] [comments] |
| Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the trading week beginning March 2nd, 2020 Posted: 29 Feb 2020 07:14 AM PST |
| Corona Virus Research and Stock DD: Part 2 Posted: 29 Feb 2020 03:23 AM PST Link to Initial Post As 19th century German philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer claimed, "All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as self-evident." The Coronavirus outbreak has reached the "highest level" of risk for the world, the World Health Organization announced today. Bill Gates calls coronavirus a 'once-in-a-century' pathogen. The Dow fell over 3,500 points this week. The US Federal Reserve's Chairman stated "U.S. economy remain strong", Iran has no plans to quarantine cities, The acting US administration is lying to the public, and has barred the top US disease expert from speaking freely to the public. - 84,154 confirmed cases worldwide (7 day Increase:🔺5,958 or 7.61%)
- 2,876 fatalities
Countries with First Case Outbreaks between 2/26 - 2/28 - Mexico
- Azerbaijan
- Belarus
- Lithuania
- Nigeria
- San Marino
- Netherlands
- Estonia
- Denmark
- Romania
- Norway
- Georgia
- North Macedonia
- Greece
- Brazil
- Iceland
- Monaco
Keep in mind the asymptomatic period was reported to be at most 27 days and patients whom recovered are developing the coronavirus and testing positive again, which means public exposure in these countries could have begun weeks ago. By Monday, I estimate that there will be at least 2,000 total new cases in the above countries experiencing the new outbreaks alone. Why does this matter? This weekend the Corona Virus news will be flowing steadily, thus IMO influencing the virus stocks to continue to rise on Monday and throughout next week. Controlling the outbreak is going to become increasingly difficult. To control the majority of viral outbreaks, for R0 of 2-5 more than 70% of contacts had to be traced, and for an R0 of 3·5 more than 90% of contacts had to be traced.The delay between symptom onset and isolation had the largest role in determining whether an outbreak was controllable when R0 was 1·5. For R0 values of 2·5 or 3·5, if there were 40 initial cases, contact tracing and isolation were only potentially feasible when less than 1% of transmission occurred before symptom onset. Researchers estimate the R0 value of COVID-19 to be likely between 4.7 and 6.6. Further, they speculate that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus. The Case of Africa With the continent's high volume of air traffic and trade between China new outbreaks are inevitable. Without treatment or vaccines, and without pre-existing immunity, sustained Corona Virus outbreaks might be devastating due to the multiple health challenges the continent already faces: rapid population growth and increased movement of people; existing endemic diseases, such as human immunodeficiency virus, tuberculosis, and malaria; remerging and emerging infectious pathogens such as Ebola virus disease, Lassa haemorrhagic fever, and others; and increasing incidence of non-communicable diseases. Governments are already anticipating demand and addressing supply chain management, mapping, and stockpiling of COVID-19 response needs: large quantities of personal protective equipment, gloves, surgical masks, coveralls, and hoods, and medical countermeasures like antiviral agents. IMO, the market for the products of Corona Virus stocks will increase exponentially when new outbreaks begin in this continent. The Stock Market Things are about to get way worse. The Harvard Business review predicts that the peak of the impact of Covid-19 on global supply chains will occur in mid-March, forcing thousands of companies to throttle down or temporarily shut assembly and manufacturing plants in the U.S. and Europe. The activity of Chinese manufacturing plants has fallen in the past month and is expected to remain depressed for months. Brace for a major effect on manufacturing worldwide. It will begin to hit full force in two to three weeks and could last for months. IMO, the only safe plays are plastic, Biotech, and Biopharmaceutical stocks. Liquidate your other positions now so you can buy back in lower. The Vaccines Stocks According to the WHO, more than 20 coronavirus vaccines are in development around the world. IMO, I am waiting to invest in the below companies once they release more data on their Corona virus vaccines. Gilead Sciences ($GILD)🔻6% this week Shares Outstanding 1,263,640,000, Float 1,257,113,299, Insider Ownership 0.53%, Institutional Ownership 85.30% On 2/26 announced that it's initiating two late-stage clinical studies to evaluate its experimental antiviral drug remdesivir in treating adults diagnosed with coronavirus disease COVID-19. Currently evaluating the antiviral drug in two studies in China, and recently began a study in the U.S. led by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). Moderna INC ($MRNA) 🔺 34% this week Shares Outstanding 362,853,000, Float 220,527,176, Insider Ownership 2.90%, Institutional Ownership 49.10% Recently announced that it has shipped the first batch of its experimental COVID-19 vaccine, known as mRNA-1273, to U.S. governmental researchers at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. An early-stage trial for the vaccine is slated to kick off this April. CEO cautions that an approved treatment is more than a year away. Novavax ($NVAX) 🔺 93% this week Shares Outstanding 32,122,600, Float 31,917,176, Insider Ownership 0.10%, Institutional Ownership 21.40% - On 2/26 announced progress in its efforts to develop a novel vaccine to protect against coronavirus disease COVID-19. Novavax has produced and is currently assessing multiple nanoparticle vaccine candidates in animal models prior to identifying an optimal candidate for human testing, which is expected to begin by the end of spring 2020.
NanoViricides Inc. ($NNVC) 🔻 5% this week Shares Outstanding 3,854,000, Float 3,249,889, Insider Ownership 15.64%, Institutional Ownership 2.00% Vaccine Manufacturer Ibio Inc. ($IBIO)🔺 665% this week Shares Outstanding 76,195,500, Float 72,305,339, Insider Ownership 41.32%, Institutional Ownership 10.00% The Testing Stock Co-Diagnostics ($CODX)🔺 293% this week Shares Outstanding 24,916,000, Float 16,954,890, Insider Ownership 26.66%, Institutional Ownership 3.70% CODX's CDI test is able to detect 2019-nCoV in asymptomatic patients, is cost efficient, and has the ability to run 48 samples at once. High sample size is important due to governments looking to stock health clinics. The CoDx design software automates the discovery process and helps design the CoPrimers faster than could be done by hand. On 2/24 received CE mark in the European Union for its COVID-19 test. CODX's test are reportedly, "easier to use than those from the CDC" CEO reported received overwhelming interest in our novel coronavirus diagnostic from all over the world since first announcing its development a month ago. In a 2/21 interview CODX's CEO stated, "they are in the middle of talks with the FDA, who have been very responsive". Maxim Group recently wrote up a review of the company and stock, which was very promising. Last public offering on 2/12 OpGen Inc ($OPGN) 🔺 112% this week Shares Outstanding 5,602,000, Float 5,560,982, Insider Ownership 0.35%, Institutional Ownership 14.10% Collaborating directly with Chinese genomics companies (BGI) in making molecular testing for the new coronavirus. BGI was the first to sequence the genome of 2019-nCoV and has developed a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test for its detection. Chain reaction test already obtained approval by the Chinese National Medical Products Administration. Medical Supply Stocks "Health systems around the world are just not ready," Dr Mike Ryan, head of the WHO emergencies program, told a news briefing. The FDA is keenly aware that the outbreak will likely affect the medical product supply chain, including potential disruptions to suppliers shortages of critical medical products in the US. The US relies heavily on Chinese-made medical devices, with their supply chain disrupted domestics medical supply companies have skyrocket. Alpha Pro Tech, Ltd. ($APT) 🔺 215% this week Shares Outstanding 13,021,000, Float 10,133,697, Insider Ownership 22.14% , Institutional Ownership 25.50% Allied Healthcare Products Inc. ($AHPI) 🔺 832% this week Shares Outstanding 4,014,000, Float 2,286,607, Insider Ownership 2.30%, Institutional Ownership 10.00% AHPI is a leading manufacturer of medical gas construction equipment, respiratory therapy equipment, home healthcare products, and emergency medical supplies. Our products appear worldwide in a range of medical applications, including hospital care, sub-acute treatment, long-term care, home healthcare, and medical emergencies. The Company's revenues are derived primarily from the sales of respiratory products, medical gas equipment and emergency medical products. The products are generally sold directly to distributors, customers affiliated with buying groups, individual customers and construction contractors, throughout the world. Harvard Bioscience ($HBIO) 🔺 25% this week Shares Outstanding 38,066,000, Float 33,950,000, Insider Ownership 2.60%, Institutional Ownership 67.00% Harvard Bioscience is a global developer, manufacturer and marketer of a broad range of specialized products, primarily apparatus and scientific instruments used to advance life science research at pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, universities and government laboratories worldwide. We sell our products to thousands of researchers in over 100 countries through our full-line catalog (and various other specialty catalogs), our websites, and through distributors, including GE Healthcare, Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc., and VWR. Corporate presentation DSI is a subsidiary of Harvard Bioscience, products include Disease Progression and Treatment Evaluation, Data Acquisition and Analysis. Stock is just starting to see volume again. All time high was $6.70, currently trading at $3.20. IMO, possibly the next APT / AHPI next week if we see volume. Start watching when it pushes above $3.29, load if it crosses $3.50. 90% return to $6.70 resistance. Additional: $LAKE🔺40% this week, $BIMI🔺5% this week, $LLIT🔻4% this week The USA More cases are likely to be identified in the coming days, including more cases in the United States. It's also likely that person-to-person spread will continue to occur, including in the United States. Public health and healthcare systems may become overloaded, with elevated rates of hospitalizations and deaths. Other critical infrastructure, such as law enforcement, emergency medical services, and transportation industry may also be affected. Health care providers and hospitals may be overwhelmed. Congress is working toward approving $6-8 billion to fight coronavirus. White House Director of Legislative Affairs stated the goal is to have Trump sign the funding package next week. As of 2/28. there are now 61 confirmed cases of novel coronavirus in the United States, according to an update today by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. These include: The 15 US cases include nine in California, one in Massachusetts, one in Washington state, one in Arizona, two in Illinois and one in Wisconsin. Among these cases, there are two instances of person-to-person transmission, one in Illinois and one in California. The latest case in California did not have any relevant travel history or known contact with another infected person, suggesting it could be the first instance of "community spread" of the virus in the United States, according to health officials. The CDC aims to have ALL state and local health departments testing for coronavirus by end of next week. Word choice of all is interesting here, we already know that the CDC didn't have an ample supply of test kits and they were reported as inaccurate last week. If the were going to provide each state and local health departments with testing capabilities, this might be a signal that test kits developed in the private sector will be distributed. Looking Forward to Next Week IMO, the virus news this weekend will be off the charts. As new outbreaks occur and the sustained outbreaks continue, the demand for these corona virus stocks will rise. I still stand by the recommendation from my initial posting, in which I suggested investing into the companies producing test kits and personal protection / medical equipment. I am still currently holding $APT, $AHPI, and $CODX. No vaccine companies at the moment. I feel that there is a great deal of profit to be made swinging these stocks using 15 second candle chart & the 50, 100, and 200 day moving average. Take a look at how the stock behaved the last two days and find a plan that can work for you. Watch the volume in premarket as well on the various virus stock to get a sense of where the interest is for that day. My Portfolio Breakdown: 65.5% AHPI: On Friday AHPI reached a crazy premarket high of $67 a share. Upon market opening, price dropped steaply down to $16. Looks to be continuing along a trend line for now. The reason I increased my holding % here is because the float is considerably smaller than APT. https://imgur.com/u9BO2UY 6.3% APT: Similarly to AHPI, the price reached a big high premarket and corrected its self to the support from 2/27. https://imgur.com/orOnmri 28.2% CODX: Big swings here. Had been previously following the 50 day moving average and corrected down to the 200 day / trend line. Still waiting on FDA approval or PR from the company on order numbers. Will sell upon receiving FDA approval for their test kits. https://imgur.com/MTTw8Y1 News Sources: submitted by /u/BPBT2020 [link] [comments] |
| What if...? Posted: 29 Feb 2020 03:50 PM PST What are you going to do if you look at the premarket on Monday morning and see that the S&P is ready to open 2% higher than Friday's close? submitted by /u/jmatmac [link] [comments] |
| The sad part about the coronavirus rally in some Pharma stocks is that Posted: 29 Feb 2020 11:29 AM PST Most people are going to lose money. I saw it yesterday in CODX and IBIO and INO and TNXP Many thousands lost. If you had got into them prior to the pump - great. Or else they are risky as hell. Real hell. You will lose thousands in 20 min. The rally will continue as fear grips but many will lose money because of wrongly timed entry points as volatility is so high that trading is being halted The other issue is all these are shit companies and were at the door of delisting and reverse split. Now suddenly they have been doing 8K's on ATM and secondary public offerings by taking advantage of the pump. IBIO alone is doing a 100 million offering and the price still went up because traders are looking to make money. In another environment, a 100 million offering will kill the stock. The market has gone mad. When it declines you will lose all money. Unless you got in way low, stay away from these stocks, or lock profits and take them off the table by selling 50% submitted by /u/FlynnTrader [link] [comments] |
| Thoughts on how to hedge buying into Index ETFs in the coming weeks/months... Posted: 29 Feb 2020 01:21 PM PST I was looking into long-term bond ETFs such as IEF to perhaps gain at least a little as I average down my Roth index funds instead of keeping all cash, and was wondering your thoughts. I'm also considering companies like NVAX, NVDA etc. Though I haven't quite researched enough. Curious about UVXY as well, though not particularly fond of leveraged funds. Overall, I've been waiting for a bit of a correction to purchase more index ETFs for my Roth, but of course want to minimize risk given the current conditions and volatility....and it's a good idea, regardless. Any insight is appreciated! submitted by /u/Send_StockPicks [link] [comments] |
| is Ibio a foolish buy? Posted: 29 Feb 2020 06:13 PM PST |
| Soo... was Friday’s EOD jump a bull trap? Posted: 29 Feb 2020 06:31 AM PST |
| Question for people who say the stock market always recovers Posted: 29 Feb 2020 02:26 PM PST Hey! I don't know a ton about finance, and I have a question I'm hoping you can answer. I've heard some people say that you should always keep your money in the market because even if the market goes down, it always bounces back eventually. But nobody has their money in "the stock market" as a whole. They have their money in businesses that are part of the stock market. And it seems to me that, if there's a big enough disaster that takes lots of huge businesses out of business, investors are screwed, even those with diverse portfolios. Say there's a huge disaster, and 200 of the businesses in the S+P 500 go under. What then? The market itself might rebound --- with totally new businesses --- but the businesses you're invested in might never recover. So an individual investor is still ruined. For instance, during the Great Depression, the stock market crashed, and lots of businesses went under. The market eventually rebounded, but I imagine a huge number of businesses people were invested in never did, right? New businesses just sprang up to take their place. So people who were invested in the 20s never got their money back. Anyways, would love your thoughts. Thanks! submitted by /u/avery_404 [link] [comments] |
| Stocks to Watch for Mar 02, 2020 - Top 17 Ideas Posted: 29 Feb 2020 11:09 AM PST Hey guys I scanned 5000+ stocks and found top 17 ideas for long and short bias. I make 50% of profits from my daily watch list, so it is very important. Let me know what stocks are you watching and what is your bias and why - I have still 3 slots available :) If you want to watch a video to understand the process why I picked these stocks let me know. Gl on Monday. Longs OPGN XAIR BCLI TRIL TVTY BTAI COLL SPCE ICAD VSTM CYH TXRH CINF Shorts ALT NVAX PRMW CALM submitted by /u/DaytradingStars [link] [comments] |
| ICCC +18% friday, cornavirus vaccine for cows. News out this weekend: Cattle dive as coronavirus spread slams global markets Posted: 29 Feb 2020 06:19 PM PST |
| December 2020 Scenario Posted: 29 Feb 2020 06:01 PM PST Anyone want to share their thoughts (best and worst case scenario) about December 2020? I have leaps (Jan 2021) for BABA, MSFT, BMY, JNJ, CGC, DIS, BIDU, DEAC, TLRY. I am down around 20% at the moment. Wondering if I should cut my losses and reenter submitted by /u/new_at_CA [link] [comments] |
| What happened to InBev (Corona beer) at 10/24/2019 - 10/25/2019 that made it fall from €82 to €73 in a day Posted: 29 Feb 2020 05:59 PM PST |
| Episode 10: Stocks To Buy During the Coronavirus Market Decline Posted: 29 Feb 2020 05:25 PM PST The Coronoavirus has not only hurt the markets, but has sadly taken a life here in the US. In this video I go over Stocks I am going to be adding to my portfolio as a dividend investor and explain why this is not the time to panic. In this video I make mention of my stocks such as Carnival (CCL), Wells Fargo (WFC), AT&T (T), Disney (DIS), Coke (KO), and other stocks I will continue to purchase during this market decline. I also go over a few others that I am interested in picking up in Microsoft, Chase, and Ford. I would love to hear your opinions on the stocks I mention in the videos so please feel free to leave comments on the video itself so others can see your opinions as well. For anyone who watches the video thank you so much and for others thanks for taking the time to even read the post. Make sure to drop a like and if you are new to the channel to Subscribe if you like the content. I greatly appreciate all of the love so far and look forward to continuing this journey. https://youtu.be/vMomPtIS2rc submitted by /u/dontfaulkup28 [link] [comments] |
| Do we think Clorox is going up? Posted: 29 Feb 2020 03:22 PM PST |
| Can someone explain the yield curve and how it affects the fed, banks and investors? I cannot wrap my head around it. Posted: 29 Feb 2020 12:07 PM PST |
| Episode 10: Stocks To Buy During the Coronavirus Market Decline Posted: 29 Feb 2020 05:09 PM PST The Coronoavirus has not only hurt the markets, but has sadly taken a life here in the US. In this video I go over Stocks I am going to be adding to my portfolio as a dividend investor and explain why this is not the time to panic. In this video I make mention of my stocks such as Carnival (CCL), Wells Fargo (WFC), AT&T (T), Disney (DIS), Coke (KO), and other stocks I will continue to purchase during this market decline. I also go over a few others that I am interested in picking up in Microsoft, Chase, and Ford. I would love to hear your opinions on the stocks I mention in the videos so please feel free to leave comments on the video itself so others can see your opinions as well. For anyone who watches the video thank you so much and for others thanks for taking the time to even read the post. Make sure to drop a like and if you are new to the channel to Subscribe if you like the content. I greatly appreciate all of the love so far and look forward to continuing this journey. https://youtu.be/vMomPtIS2rc submitted by /u/dontfaulkup28 [link] [comments] |
| How does a company maintain a low P/E, but still have a large moat. Posted: 29 Feb 2020 01:47 AM PST I made a pretty good gain from Intel recently. Now it's selling for less than I what got it for last time. The financial numbers look good, but why isn't it overvalued like most businesses? submitted by /u/waylandckc [link] [comments] |
| Figuring out the intrinsic value of Apple [YouTube video] Posted: 29 Feb 2020 12:58 PM PST |
| Short everything? Posted: 28 Feb 2020 09:24 PM PST Right now I'm actually thinking of shorting everything and trading all the inverse ETFs that favor the current panic sells. People panic sell, I profit! Thank you coronavirus! submitted by /u/PM_ME_UR_JETPACK [link] [comments] |
| Episode 10: Stocks To Buy During the Coronavirus Market Decline Posted: 29 Feb 2020 05:12 PM PST The Coronoavirus has not only hurt the markets, but has sadly taken a life here in the US. In this video I go over Stocks I am going to be adding to my portfolio as a dividend investor and explain why this is not the time to panic. In this video I make mention of my stocks such as Carnival (CCL), Wells Fargo (WFC), AT&T (T), Disney (DIS), Coke (KO), and other stocks I will continue to purchase during this market decline. I also go over a few others that I am interested in picking up in Microsoft, Chase, and Ford. I would love to hear your opinions on the stocks I mention in the videos so please feel free to leave comments on the video itself so others can see your opinions as well. For anyone who watches the video thank you so much and for others thanks for taking the time to even read the post. Make sure to drop a like and if you are new to the channel to Subscribe if you like the content. I greatly appreciate all of the love so far and look forward to continuing this journey. https://youtu.be/vMomPtIS2rc submitted by /u/dontfaulkup28 [link] [comments] |
| Episode 10: Stocks To Buy During the Coronavirus Market Decline Posted: 29 Feb 2020 05:11 PM PST The Coronoavirus has not only hurt the markets, but has sadly taken a life here in the US. In this video I go over Stocks I am going to be adding to my portfolio as a dividend investor and explain why this is not the time to panic. In this video I make mention of my stocks such as Carnival (CCL), Wells Fargo (WFC), AT&T (T), Disney (DIS), Coke (KO), and other stocks I will continue to purchase during this market decline. I also go over a few others that I am interested in picking up in Microsoft, Chase, and Ford. I would love to hear your opinions on the stocks I mention in the videos so please feel free to leave comments on the video itself so others can see your opinions as well. For anyone who watches the video thank you so much and for others thanks for taking the time to even read the post. Make sure to drop a like and if you are new to the channel to Subscribe if you like the content. I greatly appreciate all of the love so far and look forward to continuing this journey. https://youtu.be/vMomPtIS2rc submitted by /u/dontfaulkup28 [link] [comments] |
![[link]](https://i.redd.it/okfqrr7wpvj41.png){kind=link}
Did you hear there's a 12 word phrase you can say to your partner... that will trigger intense emotions of love and instinctual appeal for you deep inside his chest?
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