Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- Oil up almost 4% in the last 30 minutes due to Iran attacks and steadily rising.
- I'm a physician and I'm long KRTX. DD inside.
- Why the Iran panic is just a great buying opportunity.
- Tesla moves into China as shares double and market cap nears value of GM, Ford combined
- US shale oil production set another record in September 2019, but the y-o-y growth rate has fallen by 50%.
- More trouble for Boeing? A Boeing 787 with 180 people on board has just crashed
- Do you think Robinhood will make fractional stocks available or in few weeks people will forget about it?
- Tesla earnings predictions
- Amazon Fresh is targeting the mass market, smaller grocers are in trouble
- Is anyone buying stocks tomorrow?
- Why should I not go all in on short term defense stock call options right now??
- Let's Talk AT&T (T)
- What does this announcement means? Redemption notice – Ørsted redeems securities
- Defense ETF non-US domiciled
- Classify companies Slow Growth/Stalwart as Peter Lynch
- Opinions on purchasing gold now?
- Does Gap Theory (TA) apply when company sell their asset or losing money business ?
- When does Boeing stop being a value trap?
- WeBull Short Cash?
- Where in the fixed income space can you get 6% in the united states?
- How have accounting practices changed since the time of Benjamin Graham?
- Guyana
- Instantaneous Price Spikes
- What price is used if shares are sold before market close?
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 08 Jan 2020 04:12 AM PST If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| Oil up almost 4% in the last 30 minutes due to Iran attacks and steadily rising. Posted: 07 Jan 2020 03:42 PM PST https://www.macrotrends.net/2566/crude-oil-prices-today-live-chart You guys think this will continue or fizzle out? Also do you guys see this helping TSLA if gas prices slowly increase. [link] [comments]  |
| I'm a physician and I'm long KRTX. DD inside. Posted: 07 Jan 2020 06:59 AM PST EDIT: new form 4 SEC filing supports my thesis that KRTX remains undervalued at its current stage. Board director purchased shares at $69-70 this past week This is crossposted from my submission to wsb Xanomeline is a drug proven in prior phase 2 studies by Eli Lilly all the way back in 1997 to be very effective in treating psychosis in Alzheimer's and Schizophrenia patients. However, it was dropped due to unwanted side effects from its muscarnic agonist effects (parasympathetic things like vomiting, salivation, diarrhea etc.). But, drugs do exist that are antimuscarinic, but don't cross the blood brain barrier to cause CNS effects (like benadryl makes you drowsy). You could theoretically combine them together to counteract the side effects. Trospium is one such drug; so, Karuna therapeutics was formed in 2009 to combine xanomeline and trospium as KarXT, and study it in schizophrenia/alzheimer's. Phase 2 topline results were released in November 2019 and were extremely positive, hitting its primary endpoint. It showed PANSS score at five weeks of treatment was 11.6 point reduction compared to placebo. PANSS is a well validated scoring system to measure reduction of symptoms of psychosis. To compare how effective this is to the best selling atypical antipsychotic that already exists, see the drug Abilify (https://www.aristadahcp.com/efficacy-pivotal-trial). That drug achieved PANSS reduction of 14.7. So why would psychiatrists potentially pick KarXT over Abilify and similar existing antipsychotics? Because antipsychotics, as dopamine antagonists, have horrible side effects. They can cause disturbing extrapyramidal effects like tardive dyskinesia (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUr8ltXh1Pc&t=32s). They can also make you fat, raise your cholesterol. Muscarinic agents like KarXT do not cause any of this and the phase 2 trial further demonstrates: No evidence of somnolence, extrapyramidal side effects or weight gain compared to placebo. And finally, of course; the Phase 2 results showed KarXT was very well tolerated as opposed to the Phase 2 Eli Lilly studies back in 1990s. There were similar discontinuation rates between KarXT (20%) and placebo (21%). Reward: Best case scenario, is compare this to the drug Abilify (aripiprazole) by BMY. They hit 7.4 billion in peak sales in 2011. As the best selling atypical antipsychotic used to treat the same things KarXT is targeting but with far worse side effects, if KarXT becomes a similar blockbuster and becomes favored by clinicians for its better adverse effect profile, then if this shit hits global peak sales of over 7 billion in the future, we can apply a conservative biotech industry average of 3x multiple to sales to generate a market cap of 21 billion. That would take years (like by 2030) but represent 1100% upside to the current price. More realistically, I would expect the company gets bought out well before then. Also more realistcally, other actual analysts such as from Citi project peak unadjusted sales estimate in schizophrenia to $4.7B. But, that is for schizophrenia alone. However, if KarXT eventually also proves to be effective in ameliorating psychosis with Alzheimer's, expect the peak sales estimate to climb towards that 7 billion. Risks: Your investment goes to zero because biotech. Financials: very solid. After phase 2 topline results, a public offering of 2.6 million shares priced at $96 a share should have added roughly 250 million in cash. Their 3rd quarter 2019 financial update showed cash balance of 161 million and they projected that amount ALONE was enough to fund its operating expenses and capital expenditure requirements into the second half of 2021. This includes multiple clinical and development milestones INCLUDING a Phase 3 clinical trial of KarXT in psychosis related to schizophrenia. So, at a cash pile of 411 million to start in 2020, we should expect a low probabilty of further offerings or dilution to the stock in the near future. Tldr: KRTX is severely underpriced relative to its significantly derisked pipeline drug KarXT. You can observe its stock price has climbed everyday of actual high volume with the big boys buying but has been dumped by MM/algo/panicked retail investors on low volume days. Its public offering price at NINETY SIX dollars a share in November 2019 after phase 2 results means that should be the price FLOOR for this stock at this stage. That is a 33.6% upside to yesterday's close. This stock will take likely another year plus to realize the results of Phase 3 and then FDA submission after that. Perhaps early 2022 or late 2021. [link] [comments]  |
| Why the Iran panic is just a great buying opportunity. Posted: 07 Jan 2020 08:46 PM PST A conflict with Iran cannot seriously hurt the American or global economy. The selloffs we're seeing right now are panic reactions, driven by investors' ignorance of Iran's actual capabilities and geopolitical status, as well as far too much credence to Iranian propaganda aimed to present themselves as regional power that can unleash hell. Iran does not have the capability to significantly disrupt the global oil supply. Not even by the classic "attacking tankers in the Straits of Hormuz" tactic. Their navy is very old, poorly maintained, technologically backwards, and simply no match to modern navies like the US or UK. Half their navy was casually sunk by the US is Operation Praying Mantis, and since then they had no strategy or real build up of large-vessel navy power. They've been making plenty of threats, because they want to be seen as a strong, menacing regional superpower that should not be pushed around, but the only navy action they took recently was taking over a civilian tanker which was left defenseless, using commando tactics and small boats - practically, all their navy has and is right now. They tried the same tactics in the presence of a single British warship, and it drove their small, weak, poorly-armed boats away immediately. In reality they just don't have the sort of navy that can effectively block shipping, even just in the Straits of Hormuz, when faced with any sort of modern navy opposition. Their airforce is likewise ancient and useless. At the height of the recent clash, they flew some fighter jets along their borders. Guess what jets these were? F-14s, from the 1970s, sold to the Shah by the US. They have no spare parts for these, and except for flying short distances, these planes can do nothing. Not that even a fully supplied F-14 in top shape could do much against an F-22 with its modern air-to-air missiles. The F-14 would go down without even knowing what hit it or seeing the F-22 on radar at all. The only part of the Iranian force that's sort-of-effective is its missile and rocket force. That's what they used in their only successful strategic operation: their attack on Saudi oil facilities. Their biggest threat is repeating such operations. However, if they cause too much damage, the Saudis and/or US will retaliate by taking out Iran's own refineries and other oil facilities, which will be a death blow to Iranian economy that is already teetering. The Iranians have no real capability to prevent such a counterstrike, certainly not by modern stealth bombers. Finally, Iran doesn't have allies to effectively aid it in conflict, let alone snowball such a conflict into anything like a world war, as some of the shrillest panic responses are shrieking. Most of its neighbors are not particular friendly, especially Saudi Arabia which has been at de-facto war with Iran for years. Iran's only loyal allies are sub-state and pseudo-state actors, with which it acquired influence via the provision of weapons, military aid, and cash (which its current depressed economy can ill-afford). The Assad regime is the closest thing to a state-level ally they have, and that regime is effectively a puppet government run by the Russians, controlling a fairly small part of Syria. The Russians themselves are not their friends, and anyone claiming the Russians would enter a conflict against the US to protect the Iranians is entirely ignorant of their actual geopolitical situation. The Russians would enter such a conflict only to defend one nation and that is Russia. The Russians are in no position to enter a conflict with the US just to aid an ally, and even if they were, Iran wouldn't be in their list of allies. All of Iran's other allies are sub-state actors that are typically classified as terror groups, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iraq, and Houthi rebel groups in Yemen. These are very large, well-funded, well-trained, and well-armed - as far as such groups go. They are proficient in guerilla and terror operations under asymmetric conditions. However, they are not military forces, and will not be able to accomplish any of the strategic goals that Iran itself can't achieve, such as disrupting oil shipment or meaningfully harming global trade or economy in any other way. Of course, the idea that they can effectively fight back against the US, NATO, or any modern European nation is a complete joke; quite simply, they have no navy nor airforce. The only way they can get to the US is by buying an airline ticket. They could launch some terror attacks but that's it. TL;DR Iran greatly exaggerates its own capabilities and threats because it's in a tough position, while its actual options are limited. It cannot meaningfully disrupt global oil supply, or any other aspect of global trade or economy. Recent spikes in oil and dips in market indices were caused by typical panicking investors who lend these threads too much credit because they're not aware of the real status of Iranian military capabilities and Iran's true geopolitical standing. [link] [comments]  |
| Tesla moves into China as shares double and market cap nears value of GM, Ford combined Posted: 07 Jan 2020 02:04 PM PST Tesla shares double as market cap nears value of GM, Ford combined https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/07/tesla-market-cap-surges-past-gm-ford-as-musk-celebrates-in-china.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 07 Jan 2020 07:17 AM PST |
| More trouble for Boeing? A Boeing 787 with 180 people on board has just crashed Posted: 07 Jan 2020 08:05 PM PST |
| Posted: 08 Jan 2020 04:19 AM PST |
| Posted: 07 Jan 2020 05:28 PM PST As we get closer to the release of earnings by $TSLA do we think that the stock will rise even more or will it begin to plateau? With the latest December delivery figures, it looks good but I am still worried about the effect of the tax incentives ending. I would like other peoples thoughts and analysis. Thank you [link] [comments]  |
| Amazon Fresh is targeting the mass market, smaller grocers are in trouble Posted: 07 Jan 2020 03:14 PM PST Analyst checks show that $AMZN Amazon Fresh's pricing is within 1% of Warmart $WMT, and 8% below Kroger $KR. This suggests Amazon Fresh is targeting the mass market consumers rather than the premium segment at Whole Foods. The checks were performed in mid-December across five metro areas - Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Nashville, and Indianapolis. With Amazon having eliminated the $14.99 monthly fee and included the service for Prime members, Amazon Fresh is now on very similar terms as grocery delivery at Walmart. Amazon Fresh's mass market pricing is an ominous sign for smaller sub-scale grocers, like $UNFI, $SFM, and $SPTN, who likely will have an increasingly hard time competing with the bigger guys in online pricing. [link] [comments]  |
| Is anyone buying stocks tomorrow? Posted: 07 Jan 2020 06:39 PM PST Given the big drop in futures tonight is anyone willing to put capital to work tomorrow morning or do you think the market is going lower due to political tensions? [link] [comments]  |
| Why should I not go all in on short term defense stock call options right now?? Posted: 07 Jan 2020 04:45 PM PST Please lmk. Is there any way RTN, LMT, LHX decreases in value in the next week? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 07 Jan 2020 11:13 PM PST What do you think of AT&T as a long term investment (20 year time frame). Quick glance at the company: Market Cap of 286 Billion. Dividend yield of 5.3% P/E ratio of 17.59 52-wk low-high- 28.92-39.70 Beta of 0.59 Major Holders 0.07%% of Shares Held by All Insider 55.94%% of Shares Held by Institutions 55.98%% of Float Held by Institutions 2,956Number of Institutions Holding Shares Insider purchases in last 6 months: 215,667 shares purchased 4,024 sales I think AT&T is a great long term investment, especially with its excellent dividend. What do you all think? [link] [comments]  |
| What does this announcement means? Redemption notice – Ørsted redeems securities Posted: 08 Jan 2020 02:56 AM PST I have some shares of the danish company ORSTED. On January 7, they released an announcement that I've read at least 5 times and I still don't get what it means or if it affects me. I've also googled for related news without success. Can you guys help me?
In case it changes anything, I'm investing from Spain using DeGiro. My shares are OMX Copenhagen. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Jan 2020 02:54 AM PST Are there any alternatives to ITA /XAR that are non-US domiciled? I can't seem to find any, thanks! [link] [comments]  |
| Classify companies Slow Growth/Stalwart as Peter Lynch Posted: 08 Jan 2020 02:36 AM PST Hi, I am currently creating a personal checklist based on several criteria and I am finding troublesome to classify companies according to Peter Lynch macro categories : e.g. Slow growth, Fast Growth, Stalwart, etc. In particular, I cant really figure what measure of GROWTH should be taken, since there are many. Lynch talks about "Earnings", but I found out that there are companies with modest revenue growth but with important EPS growth or Profit Growth. For example AIRBUS (https://app.stockopedia.com/share-prices/airbus-se-EPA:AIR). In the airbus example, the earning growth are very modest, 2% year, but the actual EPS and Profit growth are sensibly higher. All in all the company cant sell more planes because there is no steady demand or because market is saturated, however it is increasingly become more efficient or finding other ways to profit. I'm curious to hear from you how would you define and classify "Growth" as Lynch. [link] [comments]  |
| Opinions on purchasing gold now? Posted: 07 Jan 2020 08:25 PM PST I was interested in buying a small amount of gold recently (was going to buy some in December, but I couldn't for few reasons). Now with the escalation of the US-Iran 'conflict', gold prices soared, and I'm uncertain whether I should buy gold now when it's at such a high point. I personally think the price will go up tomorrow after Trump's speech, then go down in the following days, but then again, I'm no expert. What would you recommend me do? [link] [comments]  |
| Does Gap Theory (TA) apply when company sell their asset or losing money business ? Posted: 08 Jan 2020 01:25 AM PST In TA on the Gap Theory that there is gap will fill the gap either in the uptrend or downtrend, but we do not know when. But my question is what if the company sell of the losing money business and or some property of their asset? Will they fill the gap eventually? [link] [comments]  |
| When does Boeing stop being a value trap? Posted: 08 Jan 2020 12:01 AM PST It has a lot of problems and they aren't going away anytime soon. That being said, it has a moat and that also isn't going away anytime soon. The question I have is what kind of approach value investors will take when positioning themselves relative to a company like Boeing? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Jan 2020 03:42 AM PST I deposited $800 into WeBull and I guess WeBull doesn't do like RobinHood does where you instantly can use the cash or how can I even do that? The interfere of WeBull is complete trash and I'm lost. I just want some oil stocks before the market opens 🤦♂️ I even did the instant real time transfer on WeBull and still no instant buying power. [link] [comments]  |
| Where in the fixed income space can you get 6% in the united states? Posted: 07 Jan 2020 11:38 PM PST |
| How have accounting practices changed since the time of Benjamin Graham? Posted: 07 Jan 2020 10:44 PM PST I read some past threads that mentioned this. But the best replies in those threads gave an overview of such practices, so I couldn't find more specific information. I do not know anything about accounting, so totally in the dark. This is more of a basic question, just simply asking about how certain things have fundamentally changed in the game on a technical level(totally removing the valuation of a business from the picture). The 2nd question is more general in nature: I was confused a lot by the comments of Redditors on how accountancy can now include intangibles in calculating the underlying value of a business. I get that intangibles such as brand value have more of an impact on the valuation now. Redditors suggested reading some new tax books by accountants which take this factor into consideration. However, I want to ask: couldn't this merely be the byproduct of bull market enthusiasm? New accounting practices sound very fishy especially when taking intangibles into account since companies have a record of using novel/complex accounting practices to trap investor money. We also know that humans are in general very good at justifying creations and being overconfident when it comes to estimating their own expertise. So I'm not really sure of how much credence should be given to these new accounting practices. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 07 Jan 2020 02:08 PM PST Has anyone tried going through the registered brokers for Guyana ( https://www.gasci.com/members.htm ) and investing in the country's stock market / companies directly? Do you have any experiences or anything you'd be willing to share? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 07 Jan 2020 05:19 PM PST I'll preface this by stating that, yes, I am a noob and I apologize if this is not the correct forum. But I'm wondering just how common this is. So today an interesting thing happened. I hold a relatively small-cap stock which sees an average daily volume of ~100k. At exactly 1pm today, the price briefly crashed by about 10% only to immediately climb back up to the price from whence it came. I probably wouldn't have noticed if I didn't happen to have an open stop-loss order at a level that it just barely managed to cross. Now I'm out a few hundred bucks and feel like I should have learned a valuable lesson. Looks like some dipshit decided to instantaneously dump a load of shares equal to an average day of trading. Has anyone else encountered a similar scenario? Is no stop-loss safe in low volume securities? [link] [comments]  |
| What price is used if shares are sold before market close? Posted: 07 Jan 2020 05:05 PM PST Hey everyone, I coincidentally sold most of my shares to make a large mortgage payment a few hours before the end of the market (around 1:30 EST) through Vanguard. I got confirmations of everything going through. VTI ended at 164.10 today and obviously has dropped considerably in the aftermarket. My question is, what price will be used when they hit my bank account? I'm assuming the closing price of 164.10 since I executed the order before market close but wanted to make sure. [link] [comments]  |
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