Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- I got bored and went through Amazon's financial statements between 2004-2014. They were a sitting goldmine in front of everyone's eyes the whole time. Some of these numbers will be of little surprise, some of them may be a great big surprise. Look at this.
- “The Man Who Solved the Market”: And the solution was… HMMs and regression
- What was your path in learning about the stock market?
- New to investing & I'm not sure when the right time to buy stocks is.
- What are your thoughts on someone investing 100% of their investment portfolio on SPY and just being a buy and hold investor and only selling shares if they need the money for something?
- What small caps are currently looking interesting to you for long term?
- Unpopular opinion: The GFC was this century's great depression, and will not happen again
- Investing in ETFs in 2020
- How is the market likely to react to this Trump vs Iran event?
- Referral or introducing broker discount for Interactive Brokers?
- Getting Started
- What is the best brokerage to use?
- Invest in the emerging market
- New to investing- please provide some advice
- About the "not-QE" thing
- Any faith in these M&A claims??
- Portfoliovisualizer added a robust (monte carlo sampling) efficient frontier forecast option
- Can you be a great investor solely on intuition (understanding the market and the world)?
- S&P 500 Index Med/Long Term investment & Iran Uncertainty
- Google Finance Return All Time Highs Formula
- Reading material to take over my father's investing over time
- Do you think Apple (AAPL) is overvalued?
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 04 Jan 2020 04:10 AM PST If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 04 Jan 2020 08:37 PM PST https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1naBI-0-7pjZOpUV4P9F6HY_PjP4fb53caSo1iZ9jSAM/edit?usp=sharing A few things scream out to me immediately: I. They had no capital in their business. The story was that they had no profits (I question that now) but they had no capital in their business for a long time. Invested capital was negative for a long time until 2012 when they got into the cloud systems they're known for (and AWS is the massive cash flow machine it is). Chanos pointed this out in a fireside chat he had with Dan Gilbert (which ultimately created my interest in looking into the statements now). "The money followed the investment". II. They only had two years where they were shrinking more than they were growing (I see this as Capex<D&A) and those two years were 2007 and 2009. They shrank by a very small amount. No business grows continually forever so this comes as no surprise. III. For the years chosen here they were free cash flow positive, net revenue positive, and EBITDA positive. They had negative net income in 2014. An amazing run. Consistent gross margins also with very little fluctuation. They had negative book value in 2004. Their return on net tangible equity also was fantastic with one negative year in 2004. [link] [comments]  |
| “The Man Who Solved the Market”: And the solution was… HMMs and regression Posted: 04 Jan 2020 07:54 PM PST I just finished reading Gregory Zuckerman's biography of Jim Simons. The best answers I was able to get from the book on what their solution to the market was:
1 was the start of their bonds, commodities, and currencies team, and 2 was the start of their stocks team, and 3 & 4 were guiding principles for both these teams. Quantitative Bonds, commodities, and currencies team: James Ax, a number theorist and strong believer in Markov Chains for financial markets was JS's first quant, and headed the effort under the name Axcom in CA. By '86 Axcom traded 21 different futures contracts. René Carmona then joined them to try to incorporate SDEs, his field of expertise. When that failed, Carmona suggested changing their existing linear regression approaches to be nonlinear, high dimensional kernel regression methods, and having the model directly suggest buy/sell orders. These improved results on trending models. Elwyn Berlekamp (who had worked with Kelly) took over Axcom in '89 and brings in Henry Laufer in '92, they worked on mean reversion strategies and looking at correlations between time periods. They start using data in 5 minute bars, used pairs trading, and had an online learner, constantly looking for trading signals (one auspicious one they called "Henry's signal"). By '97 "more than half of the trading signals Simons's team was discovering were nonintuitive" and they ignored them. But they figured out the right day and time to make their trades. Later Simons says "we're the best at estimating the cost of a trade." In '98 they are the majority of the firm, with stock trading only 10% of the profits. Quantitative Stock team: This team starts to make progress in '93 when Nick Patterson contacts Brown and Mercer at IBM's speech group (which uses algorithms like Baum-Welch in their HMMs for speech-to-text). Brown and Mercer take over Robert Frey's factor stock trading fund named Kepler (later Nova). Frey (previously statistical arbitrage at Morgan Stanley) was identifying various independent variables for factor trading models. Brown & Mercer retain Frey's model, and elaborate it to cover real-life technicalities he was ignoring. They make an adaptive single trading system for their whole portfolio, and self-correcting for when the trades it suggests are unexecutable. The system repeated on loop several times an hour. It was a well engineered product, and usually bet on mean reversion strategies. By '03 their profits are 2x Laufer's team, and they work on a model to replace the futures team's. Alexey Kononenko rises through the ranks of this team. Two members Belopolsky & Volfbeyn bolt to Israel Englander's Millennium management, allegedly with (millions of lines of) code and ideas, and have great success there ("some of the most successful traders Englander had encountered"). By 2010 the system is huge, executing thousands of simultaneous trades throughout the day, with lots of factors and interrelations. Some thoughts: HMMs, factor models, non-linear kernel regression, correlations between various time periods, these are all separately well known pieces. But the book says many times that a single model was handing out trading instructions. My first guess for how to put these different elements together would be that everything else was generating features for the HMM. RenTech is having its best years right now! $63B of its $104B trading profits are since 2010, and with just 300 employees. Surely it has updated its techniques, and probably cashed in on the deep learning revolution raging since (at least) 2014! Additional details with links/figures is here: [link] [comments]  |
| What was your path in learning about the stock market? Posted: 04 Jan 2020 08:49 AM PST |
| New to investing & I'm not sure when the right time to buy stocks is. Posted: 04 Jan 2020 08:10 PM PST Currently 20, in the military, plan on doing 20 or 25 then retiring in some 3rd world country and enjoying my riches :) Hi Ive always wanted to get in the investing game since I was 15, I just opened a Vanguard account and after so much research I have decided on buying shares from VTI ( Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF) then later on being more conservative. Currently I see for VTI the yearly range for the stock shares is priced between 126-164, right now it is 163. Should I wait till the share price goes lower? Are there any websites/apps to help me with this decision or atleast favor me? Or is this just totally out of my control and I just need to take a leap of faith. TIA [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 04 Jan 2020 01:13 PM PST other than some money set aside for emergencies and necessities, they will put all the excess money into just buying more SPY. They are interested in investing for the long term and want to maximize returns while investing as passively as possible, is this a good/bad idea? [link] [comments]  |
| What small caps are currently looking interesting to you for long term? Posted: 04 Jan 2020 10:47 AM PST |
| Unpopular opinion: The GFC was this century's great depression, and will not happen again Posted: 04 Jan 2020 10:08 PM PST People are waiting for another 50% crash, and many went to cash years ago. (and still waiting). Everything I'm looking at says that will not happen again. Millenials are now entering their prime years (30s~50s) and is actually a larger group than the boomers. Many of them are just now starting to invest money in equities. Other than demographics, international stocks are cheap, semiconductors are breaking out, and many stocks are actually still below their 1999 high. Its looking good for the next 1-2 decades imo. We will surely have corrections (eg late 2018) but a full on crash and bear market looks unlikely. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 04 Jan 2020 05:46 PM PST I am currently 20 yrs old and have $2k to invest into stocks, and i want to invest into ETFs since i want a safe first time approach before playing with options etc. Currently, im planning to use M1finance and my profolio right now consists of VOO (30%) VTI (30%) SPHD (25%) BND (15%) Keep in mind that this is just for ETFs, I understand that there are other approaches to making higher returns but I am focus on ETFs as of now. I'm interested in anyone's opinion to see if this profolio is decent or if i should add or take out any of these stocks. [link] [comments]  |
| How is the market likely to react to this Trump vs Iran event? Posted: 04 Jan 2020 10:55 PM PST As the title says? This isnt intended to be another "Do you think crash" post, but the market often reacts to news. What do you all think will happen and are you buy, selling or holding? [link] [comments]  |
| Referral or introducing broker discount for Interactive Brokers? Posted: 05 Jan 2020 03:47 AM PST Can I get any fee discounts if I sign up for Interactive Brokers account under a referral or introducing broker? Googling I could only find a basic referral program that offers $200 max fixed commission which is not ideal. I would like recurring fee discounts if possible. Also I couldn't find any reputable sites that act as referral or introducing broker for IB. (Don't suggest lite because I can't sign up for that) [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 05 Jan 2020 03:33 AM PST Hi guys new entrant to the stock market, just wanted to ask what books are the best to get started and read. Just finished The Intelligent Investor, looking for some other books to read. Cheers [link] [comments]  |
| What is the best brokerage to use? Posted: 04 Jan 2020 09:18 AM PST I'm using E*TRADE right now and haven't had any problems but I've read some reviews about them dickin you around when transferring money back into your own bank accounts. I'm fine with the layout and everything, I just want to be sure that when I transfer money I'm not hung out to dry for months at a time. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 05 Jan 2020 02:58 AM PST Africa remains one of the worthy places to invest and get value. Share your view [link] [comments]  |
| New to investing- please provide some advice Posted: 05 Jan 2020 01:33 AM PST Hi, 22 years old just about finishing school and will be entering workforce. I have a little to no expenses as I'll be living with my parents and am going to pay off tuition debt first but will have a good amount of money leftover. I was wondering if anybody had any good books to read regarding investing into stocks. To be honest, my risk tolerance is decently high. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 04 Jan 2020 06:56 PM PST I just want to bounce this off the reddit community. So the Fed reserve has been pumping $60 billion a month into the economy in the form of treasury bill buybacks since October. They call this different than the bond buybacks they started in 2007 but the result is similar right. With current interest rates around 2% there's little room to move when we do have a recession (from 2007-9 they cut 5%). The S&P 500 is at all time highs (strongly correlated with the "its not QE QE") and the Fed is spending 60 billion a month causing further rampant inflation of securities. Now they release statements hinting that they're gonna restart actual QE. Mexico is closely linked to us and they're in recession. There are recent signs our own economy is slowing. We are in a bubble caused by extremely over leveraged hedge funds and banks, and the ways we used to fix the aftermath of the 2007 crash are not there. The Fed budget can only go so high. Am I off base here in being extremely worried about the future of the economy? [link] [comments]  |
| Any faith in these M&A claims?? Posted: 04 Jan 2020 08:36 AM PST I'm trying to do my DD on this one and I just came across this article about these potential M&A opportunities this year. Does anyone feel that this article holds any weight as to what's being said? I'm still pretty new to the game and wouldn't know a legit source from a fake one yet. 7 M&A Potential Opportunities in 2020 Thanks so much! [link] [comments]  |
| Portfoliovisualizer added a robust (monte carlo sampling) efficient frontier forecast option Posted: 04 Jan 2020 11:31 AM PST See https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/efficient-frontier-forecast Must have been added within the last few months. The FAQ references A Practical Framework for Portfolio Choice Richard O. Michaud (2003) (link). Should be easier to use than the black-litterman optimizer and more expressive than the risk parity and other optimizers. For context: Efficient frontier is a way of visualizing the return vs volatility for optimal portfolios. The standard way to do this is mean variance optimization (Markowitz). This gives an exact answer for a given set of parameters - the mean return of each asset, their volatilities, and the covariance of each pair. You can use historical data for this or your own predictions for the future. The big problem is that while this is optimal for the exact parameters specified, it tends to generate poor portfolios when the parameters have some error. Other optimization models try to generate portfolios that are suitable for a wider range of conditions. Black-Litterman uses a Bayesian model to regularize the portfolio weights. Risk parity and some others use fewer parameters that are more easily predicted and skips the ones that are difficult. This method uses Monte Carlo sampling to add noise to the parameters and then averages the resulting portfolios together. [link] [comments]  |
| Can you be a great investor solely on intuition (understanding the market and the world)? Posted: 04 Jan 2020 08:13 AM PST From what I've learned there are four different ways of being an investor. One can use:
So my question is, can you be a great investor solely from intuition? Or do you also have to understand and perform financial analysis of companies? EDIT: Thank you for all the answers, I appreciate them all! [link] [comments]  |
| S&P 500 Index Med/Long Term investment & Iran Uncertainty Posted: 04 Jan 2020 04:55 PM PST Hey all, I was literally hours away from investing into the S&P 500 Index when the announcement was made of some very bold moves in regards to Iran. I decided to hold off for now. I've been doing some research on the market effects of the Iraq War. But I'm still new at this and I'm certainly out of my depth when it comes to understanding the impact of war on this sort of investment. My investment would be between 5-15 years, but would involve yearly withdrawal (just enough to not touch the principal). For this purpose, perhaps the volatility should have me looking elsewhere?
Any insight would be greatly appreciated. [link] [comments]  |
| Google Finance Return All Time Highs Formula Posted: 04 Jan 2020 10:29 PM PST How do I get all time highs for stocks? I try this formula but I get REF. I'm not sure why it's wrong as I followed the instructions. "High52" only works for the last 52 weeks. I want all time high prices for all of time. Same for dividend yield. I use "yieldpct" and it doesn't work. [link] [comments]  |
| Reading material to take over my father's investing over time Posted: 04 Jan 2020 10:15 PM PST My father had a pretty debilitating stroke and while he is expected to survive and recover it will be some time before he can make logical decisions (1-2 years). He started a pretty large portfolio for me and I may end up having to manage his once I get through the legal process. Im 24, and I have about 350k in CD's and about 100-120 k in the stock market by his investments (looks like there are some losses at the moment). I have the next 3-6 months pretty much off of work and no school and a lot of time to read and keep busy. Regarding the stock market I know the very very very basics and am basically starting noob level. Are there any good books that I could start with? [link] [comments]  |
| Do you think Apple (AAPL) is overvalued? Posted: 04 Jan 2020 09:32 AM PST In this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvuSiM9WrzA) Warren Buffett talks about his expectations for Apple. However, the stock is now up over 100% for the year? Do you think the stock is overvalued right now? Would you consider buying in at this price? [link] [comments]  |
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