Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- 2020 Psychedelic Industry Insights Report
- CFO Signals survey: Q4 2019 (97% of CFOs say a downturn has already begun or will next year, expected to be mild)
- Toyota - what’s the catch?
- Is there still anyway to buy just one share paper stock certificate as a gift to love one ?
- Am I the only one who is absolutely terrified by this article?
- Is there a way that I can see how much money all the S and P 500 companies made in revenue for a certain year?
- Struggling to see why 5G is viewed as a big catalyst for Apple (and other phone makers)
- When should I sell stock that I intended to make dividends from?
- Roth IRA and limits
- Thoughts on Roundhill Bitkraft esports ETF (NERD)
- Does Charles Schwab allow day trading without daily limitations?
- Trying to beat the market through fundamental analysis
- I don't think I really understood how index fund dividend reinvestment works
- Fed Adds $83.1 Billion in Short-term Money to Markets - May Need To Extend Repo Operations Through April
- Do you guys put money in your index funds annually?
- Vtsax is it better than Fzrox mutual funds ?
- TFSA Questions
- How much money has slipped pass you by waiting for a stock to hit your intrinsic value?
- What's your particular quirk when it comes to investing?
- Any good book to learn about US Bonds investments?
- Where do reinvested dividends go?
- How to convert IRA to Roth IRA
- Robo-advisor Meta-Analysis
- VUG vs VTI- What are your longterm bets on?
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 10 Jan 2020 04:12 AM PST If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| 2020 Psychedelic Industry Insights Report Posted: 09 Jan 2020 06:36 PM PST By: Nikita Alexandrov BChem, MBA - CTO, ThinkMyco Jan 8th, 2020 2019 was a pivotal year in the psychedelic industry with US decriminalization actions, two companies receiving FDA breakthrough status for psilocybin, funding of the $16M Johns Hopkins Psychedelic Research Center, The US Defence Department starting their rumored $20M+ Focused Pharma psychedelic science program and the movement of top universities into research and clinical trials. With the explosion of the more than $100M dollars worth of investable psychedelic opportunities in Q3 2019, the collapse of high quality cannabis investments, one of the best decembers on record and a potential $1B scale psychedelic IPO - 2020 will be the year of psychedelic investment. The movement in the field recently is just a blip compared to what is to come, this industry has been brewing for the last few decades. Big Pharma has failed when it comes to new approaches to brain and central nervous system treatment. Neuro drugs have half the success rate of all Pharma projects, which caused most of the big players to liquidate their neuro programs in the last decade. Recently, engagement is exploding with new clinical legislature supporting neuro, the recent approval of 3 potentially blockbuster neuro drugs in the last 2 years, Q2 2019 saw a record of over $320M in investment into neuro drug development. Interestingly enough an influential group of ultra-high net worth individuals to funded the psychedelic holding company Atai Lifesciences which went on to fund Compass Pathways and continues to fund commercial efforts in this field. Atai Lifesciences recent movements are a familiar story of acquisition and consolidation in an emerging market which will be a common theme in the future of the psychedelic industry. The collapse of investable cannabis opportunities are driving investors comfortable in stigmatized industries and binary risk to the table with big pharma, cutting edge science and huge unmet market needs to create a perfect storm of opportunity. Highlight: Investors seek 'mega blockbuster' drugs as neuroscience undergoes renaissance How big is the Psychedelic Industry? Historically, the psychedelic industry has been fragmented with around $60M worth of companies in the last 20 years, many of which were not sustainable. The current industry is around $300M worth of investments, dominated by the Peter Thiel backed Atia Lifesciences at $100M+ and Compass Pathways at $50M+, followed by Mind Medicine at $10M+, Fieldtrip Ventures at $10M+ and then a 10-15 early companies in the range of $2.5-10M each. The $300M worth of investable deals have only existed since the public formation of Compass Pathways in 2016, with the majority leaving stealth mode in 2019. Highlight: Transforming psychedelics into mainstream medicines How big is the Psychedelic Market? The psychedelic market is emerging while highly coupled to clinical/regulatory events and is split between recreational and medical psychedelic markets: Recreational: $8-19.2B Calculated from cannabis market and comparable usage prevalence as well as demand size economics. Medical: $373B Calculated from the main markets addressable by psychedelic therapeutics (neurogenics market): mental health drugs, therapy spending, neurodegeneration drugs and cognitive enhancement. Highlight: Analysis of the Psilocybin Pharmaceutical Market Who are the players? Atai Lifesciences - German based, Global psychedelic pharma holding company formed by ultra-high net worth individuals and big pharma, $150M+ Compass Pathways - London based psychedelic giant, Atai's bet on psilocybin as an approved drug for depression, $50M+, IPO 2020 Usona Institute - A Wisconsin based non-profit powerhouse competing with Compass Pathways to approve psilocybin for depression. Mind Medicine - Toronto based ibogaine derived addiction drug development company taking their lead candidate 18-MC through the clinical approval process, raising $15M, RTO in 2020 Eleusis Benefit Corporation - New Orleans based discovery/clinical stage Psychedelic pharma company supported by industry scientists, raising $25M FieldTrip Ventures - Toronto based, Aurora backed magic mushroom research and development company building clinical and production infrastructure, raising $10M+ ThinkMyco - Vancouver based holding company developing disruptive mushroom production technology and next generation therapeutics, raising $5M+ Gilgamesh Pharmaceuticals - Psychedelic drug discovery company affiliated with the Atai owned Perception Neuroscience and Columbia University, raising 10M+ Universal Ibogaine - Vancouver based Ibogaine clinical development company franchising the world's most advanced ibogaine clinical model, raising $10M+, RTO in 2020 PsyGen Labs - Alberta based psychedelic mass production and clinical research company with highly experienced production chemists $5M+ Entheogen Biosciences - Vancouver based company pursuing psilocybin and DMT based drug development, raising $3M, IPO in 2020 Salvation Botanicals - A Vancouver based company touting a private controlled substances site license and supporting clinical research, raising $10M+, RTO in 2020 Numinus Wellness - Vancouver based wellness company building testing as well as clinical infrastructure, partnered with Salvation, raising $5M+, RTO in 2020 Cybin Corp - Toronto based research and development company building drug development and production infrastructure as well as nutraceutical assets in legal jurisdictions, raising $3M Emerging Players - There are a number of emerging players, around $25M+ in emerging deals in Q3 2019 which have not passed due diligence. Clinical: Recent data is showing psychedelics can be real mega blockbuster neuro drugs. Johns Hopkins recent trial on Psilocybin for smoking cessation showed an 80% success rate in terminating nicotine addiction, more than double any known therapeutic approach, including nicotine replacement therapy. Academic data shows that Ibogaine is 95% successful in terminating acute opioid withdrawal/addiction. Limited data from Ibogaine for opioid addiction trials show 50% success rates in terminating addiction, more than 10X higher than the generous 5% success rate of other approaches. Data from leading Ibogaine providers like Universal Ibogaine show that this 50% figure can be pushed closer to 75% with proper protocols and aftercare. Clinical trials on Psilocybin for cocaine/crack addiction are ongoing at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, a top 20 medical research university. 10 patients were un-blinded for bioethics review and the unpublished data shows that 30% never touched cocaine again while the other 70% had a relapse or two and turned their lives around, showing a 100% success rate in changing lives with minimal cost. When this data is available publicly in the next years, tidal waves of interest will move into the field. Highlight: Psychedelic Clinical Research Timeline Projections: As a recreational market, 0.1% of the population was surveyed as using psychedelics in the last month, placing the current black market at $19.1B while as a comparable percentage of the legal cannabis market adjusted for prevalence would place it at $8B. As a medical market, the $373B neurogenics market seems to be the addressable market. Penetration into any indication in the neurogenics market would reap vast rewards, Psilocybin is on track to compete in the depression market with two FDA breakthrough designations, a 2% penetration into the depression market would being $1.4B in value. Ibogaines very reasonable projected 4% penetration into the opioid dependence market will bring $9.6B in value yearly to groups like Universal Ibogaine which are deploying clinical infrastructure, supporting clinical trials and controlling the Ibogaine supply chain. Of all of the indications in current psychedelic clinical trials, not considering crossover, they address a $400B+ market, with projected penetrations across each indication and adjustments for market factors, it is projected $16B+ of value yearly will be created from commercialization of current late stage clinical trials. Highlight: Johns Hopkins Psilocybin for Smoking Cessation Data Challenges: Regulatory Challenges: While nearly 100 cities are creating legislation to decriminalize psychedelics and multiple US jurisdictions have passed decriminalization, federal changes will be required to open legal markets to the full potential. While investing in the binary risk of regulatory changes is standard in the junior markets, current regulatory controls are preventing early revenues. Many Canadian companies building production and distribution infrastructure offshore in jurisdictions such as Jamaica are operating in a legal grey area. While it is legal in Jamaica, any benefit or advantage given to a Canadian company could be considered a proceed of crime including IP development, capital repatriation and validation of technology offshore. Section 56 exemptions from Health Canada are required for Canadian companies working with psychedelics offshore and companies which are raising investment dollars without a secured Section 56 exemption may be incurring legal risk. Cardiac Liability: The unspoken elephant in the room of psychedelic derived pharmaceutical acceptance is not regulation, for example Ketamine is a scheduled drug which was recently approved. The problem is actually the liability of bringing a seratonergic based drug to the market like Psilocybin, DMT and LSD. The crippling withdrawal of blockbuster drug Fen-Phen and issues with other drugs like Imitrex due to seratonin agonist effects on the heart have scared the FDA into a position that any seratonergic drug will require extreme cooperation and diligence and will absolutely incur additional clinical and monitoring costs over other drugs. Psilocybin while technically hitting the 5ht2b receptor which causes cardiac side effects, does not have a high enough affinity to be a deal-breaker, meanwhile LSD having a very high affinity will cause large barriers for groups attempting to bring microdosed LSD to the market. Ibogaine suffers from cardiac liability due to an entirely different mechanism and unlike Psilocybin or LSD, adverse events have been reported. While Methadone and other standards of care also have the same long-QT cardiac liability at much higher rates and significantly higher mortality rates , Ibogaine clinical models must pre-screen patients for existing heart defects before procedures to guarantee no adverse side effects. Banking/Insurance/Exchange Issues: Legitimate psychedelic derived drug development companies have already had bank accounts halted at multiple banks for involvement in this industry and moving forward similar challenges faced by the cannabis industry should be expected. Exchanges and public offerings will have logistic challenges with this industry and minor friction has already been seen in the listing process. DNO insurance and other underwriting will be required to list in large markets and to date no psychedelic company has been underwritten, although underwriters and leading insurance brokers are actively exploring his industry. Reimbursement: The real whale will be insurance and single payer reimbursement of psychedelic derived pharmaceuticals on the market, allowing for global market uptake. Health systems have traditionally been decades behind the state of the art as seen in the point of care and home diagnostic device market, a market which could keep people healthy at minimal cost but has been crippled by lack of reimbursement. Supply Chain Commoditization: The production and control of psychedelic supply chains which is the familiar play of the cannabis industry will be a race to the bottom with magic mushrooms and other psychedelics. Production models are competing with a much more fluid black market and are being cannibalized by low cost home production and wildcrafting of psilocybin mushrooms. The LSD or ergoloid supply chain is highly monopolized, with the majority of the worlds ergoloids being produced in a single location.Companies competing in the production and supply chain space will face heavy price pressure and a highly coupled global regulatory system. The single outlier is Ibogaine, with a current global use estimated around 90kg, expected to reach 280kg in the next two years, this is a commodity whose price will drive through the roof. Large ibogaine producers have stopped production and natural sources are not commercially viable, with an Iboga plant producing maybe a single dose on the 10 year period, the move of ibogaine to endangered status in 2019 and no synthetic GMP producers - the ibogaine market is legal in the majority of the world and exploding while highly underserved and fragmented. Delivery System Challenges: A number of recent psychedelic deals are built around new drug delivery systems for psychedelics entering the recreational market to build expertise and infrastructure ready to move into the pharmaceutical market. Many of these technological approaches will not translate from the recreational market to the pharmaceutical market such as CBD/psychedelic compositions, natural product compositions as well as vaporizer and inhaler based delivery systems. While 20%+ of all new FDA drug entities are derived from natural products, natural product mixtures containing many products and a controlled substance have never and will never be FDA approved due to the regulatory system. Companies developing Psilocybin/CBD combinations and related therapeutics for the recreational market should understand that unlike the cannabis market, recreational approaches will not translate directly to medical approaches. Opportunities: Syndicated Investments: One of the largest opportunities in any emerging market is syndicated investment, a 2002 analysis of 584 venture backed exits showed that syndicated investments produced double the rate of return of non-syndicated investments. Psychedelic research and development companies require standardized infrastructure that can be leveraged across a number of players. The big players entering the industry are more interested in empire building, requiring massive consolidations of commercial efforts which can be facilitated by syndicated investment groups. Companies like ThinkMyco, Entheogen Biosciences and Cybin Corporation which focus on technology development, IP Portfolios and early stage drug discovery will benefit the most from syndicated investment and collaboration. A Harvard Business School review of Pharma discovery programs statistically compared drug discovery programs to weapons research programs and found in these high reward/low incremental cost programs the optimal path is to run parallel programs, with an average Pharma drug discovery program having 16 parallel programs, 10 core and 6 low budget/high risk. IP Portfolio Development: IP development is the highest value for dollar on the investment value chain and the psychedelic industry will be a totally IP driven industry. The most valuable patent portfolios will include new psychedelic compositions and therapeutic mechanisms, which require significant investments into fundamental R+D, while less competitive portfolios will include delivery system/psychedelic combinations.A recent review of patents related to psychedelics shows many hundreds of patents for psychedelic derived therapeutics with only a small cross-section being commercially competitive. DemeRX, the $40M+ Ibogaine research company holds 65+ patents in the ibogaine therapeutic area. While DemeRX filed for bankruptcy and their research and development assets were liquidated, it is rumored they have been injected with enough capital to come back to the party - this is a dark horse to keep an eye out for. Mushroom/Protein Connection: The real opportunity in magic mushroom production models is flying under the radar: protein production. Mushrooms are one of the highest quality sources of nutrition and protein, if you took a vitamin C supplement you can live exclusively off mushrooms. Dried mushrooms have basically the same protein percentage as beef and in terms of grams of protein per acre per year are 100 fold higher producers and much more sustainable than traditional agricultural practices. Companies in this space which invest into real R+D for lower cost mushroom production will get a lift from the $1.8 trillion dollar protein market. A recent review of mid-sized mushroom farms shows that 50%+ of the cost of mushroom production is due to labor and technical inefficiencies. If energy, labor and materials cost drivers can be reduced, and the cost of growing a pound of mushrooms can drop from around $2 to around $1.20 through automation, mushroom protein becomes significantly more competitive than many of the industry leaders in plant based protein like pea protein. If energy cost reductions can drop the cost even further, mushrooms will become a disruptive food source. Psychedelic companies building mushroom production infrastructure will be well served to remember that by investing in automation, new technology and new growing systems the price of mushroom based protein production can make it more competitive than any other food source. The largest food security report in history was released Q2 2019 and showed that without subsidies a hamburger would cost more than 30$ and the meat industry will economically collapse by 2040, the protein game is looking more and more attractive as a hedge against the regulatory risk of magic mushroom production. China: China is one of the most advanced markets in terms of size and pharma spending, as well as venture investment. Traditionally the Asian cultures had no interest in marginalized and politically tense areas such as drug medicalization but the movement into CBD and China's rabid interest in plant medicines may create a large influx of Asian capital moving into psychedelics. This industry shifting action will be leveraged by education and the court of public opinion. A dialog must be created showing psilocybin as a plant medicine and not a drug of abuse. Interestingly enough, Chinese firms have very recently started producing magic mushrooms industrially and importing them into the Canadian market where they are sold into the black market over-the-counter in some Canadian herbalist stores. Ibogaine: Ibogaine is the only psychedelic model which will not be very quickly commoditized. Ibogaine as a solution to the opioid problem is a disruptive technology, with the rise of fentanyl and fentanyl analogs like carfentanil dominating global supply chains, Buprenorphine, the preferred standard of care is no longer effective. This is due to the aggressive affinity of fentanyl to receptors, the lack of tolerance ceiling and the little understood metabolism of next-generation fentanyl analogues, dramatically compounding a problem already at pandemic levels. Ibogaine supply chains have collapsed at the same time that demand is growing exponentially, the firm which dominates the current global ibogaine supply chain will reap around $1.4M/mo profit serving the current global demand. One of the largest African Ibogaine brokers has seen a 30x increase in sales from 2017 to 2019. With Universal Ibogaine taking Ibogaine through the Canadian clinical process and the grassroots support from Health Canada, Ibogaine will be the first psychedelic approach available to consumers. While Ibogaine is a scheduled drug in the US and some European jurisdictions, it is not scheduled in Canada and the majority of the global market. Multiple Ibogaine documentaries are in filming, including actors such as Johnny Depp, as this is an education driven industry, we should expect exponential growth to accelerate in 2020. Support Industries: Industries supporting the growth of psychedelics will be a large part of the future landscape as was seen in the cannabis sector. A psychedelic business support network including education, conferences, business analysis and financing have already cropped up commercially. In Q3 2019 the renowned Cambridge House International Extraordinary Future conference created a panel for psychedelic opportunities. Two weeks before the conference there was a frantic rush and the majority of relevant psychedelic players were represented last minute in the panel discussion including: Compass Pathways, FieldTrip Ventures, Mind Medicine, Johns Hopkins, Dennis McKenna and ThinkMyco. Multiple psychedelic investment funds are forming alongside of industry press, consulting groups and other support interests. In Q3 2019, Dr. Matthew Thompson of Johns Hopkins and Dr. Charles Nichols of LSU/Eleusis Benefit Corporation helped organize the inaugural conference for the new journal called International Society for Research on Psychedelics in its home of New Orleans. Over 100 international scientists from top universities were represented, with the conference having to turn down many late registrations. Dr. Rolland Griffiths, head of the Johns Hopkins Psychedelic Research Center said "This was the best scientific conference I have been to in my entire career.". Sub-perceptual dosing: Microdosing was popularized by Silicon Valley, catalyzing the resurgence of the psychedelic industry but microdosing is a protocol built on unsound fundamentals. Research shows that the therapeutic effects of psychedelics are highly dose dependant, higher doses lead to better therapeutic effects. The microdosing supply chain model has excellent returns, with a pound of mushrooms costing less than 5$/lb to produce which provides around 1200x microdoses. When dosages increase past the perceptual threshold, the potential for adverse events such as bad trips exponentially increases. The ideal dosage seems to be just under perceptual threshold where you can still go about your day, but much higher than a microdose. This is industry standard with seratonergic pharmaceuticals, an example being the diet drug Belvique, which is closely related to psilocybin, dosed at the perceptual threshold for maximum effectiveness. Belvique can cause psilocybin like hallucinations if 4 tablets are taken as it is a seratonergic drug. High doses of psilocybin require a clinical infrastructure and in-patient experience, dramatically increasing costs and logistics overheads. Sub-perceptual dosed pharmaceuticals will be available for out-patient and take home treatment and in many cases may be as effective as full blown psychedelic experiences. Mind Medicine, ThinkMyco and Eleusis Benefit Corporation are leading the charge in sub-perceptual therapeutics. Next Generation Drug Development: Mind Medicine is taking the approach of engineering the hallucinations out of the therapeutic experience by removing parts of the molecule and are moving their drug, 18-MC through the clinical process. This is the ultimate high risk/high reward play in the psychedelic industry. 18-MC is modified which also changes a variety of important receptor binding effects. The modified receptors include the receptors responsible for growth factor release, cognitive effects, cardiac effects and the opioid system coupled NMDA receptors. Since there is no data on the human use of 18-MC in opioid addicts, significant capital must be deployed before it is even known if 18-MC is as efficient as the parent molecule Ibogaine for treating opioid addiction, the ability to treat addiction in an out-patient setting with no cardiac toxicity - 18-MC will be the megablockbuster all investors in the neurogenic space are waiting for. ThinkMyco, Gilgamesh, Mind Medicine and Eleusis Benefit Corporation are leading the field in next generation drug development. Lateral Drug Development: While psychedelics address a $373B neurogenics market, companies such as Eleusis Benefit Corporation are showing they can address other unmet clinical needs such as chronic inflammatory disease. Eleusis is developing new psychedelic compounds for the treatment of inflammation, specifically within ophthalmology, and has recently published Phase I trial results revealing the safety and tolerability of low dose LSD in healthy older adults, with the intention of evaluating low dose LSD as a disease modifying therapy in Alzheimer's disease. Eleusis Benefit Corporation looks poised to cannibalize the $3B steroid therapeutic market. Not yet published research is showing Ibogaines potential as a therapeutic to treat sleep disorders. Johns Hopkins is currently reviewing the application of psychedelics in pulling patients from comas and vegetative states. The original pre-Mind Medicine clinical trials on the Ibogaine derivative 18-MC showed promise in treating Leishmania infection. BOL148, an inactive form of LSD, originally the placebo in human clinical LSD research, was found to in some cases to permanently terminate cluster headaches after a few doses and is being publicly demanded from the cluster headache community. These are the earliest days of understanding the application of psychedelic derived chemistry as new therapeutic approaches. Public Health Engagement: Looking at recently released data representing North American, working class adults, methamphetamine and fentanyl use is growing enormously and consistently. Linear regression of growth rates over the last 5 years projects a 380%+ increase in Fentanyl usage the next 15 years, with Methamphetamine projected at a 475%+ increase. This is concerning as there are more than a million high quality data points over 5 years and an R2 value of 90%+ which paints of picture of statistical certainty. This shows that the opioid crisis has moved from a lift caused by supply side drivers to an organically growing demand side driven pandemic fueled secondarily by histories cheapest and most available synthetic drugs. With $100B+ in fines projected for the opioid crisis in the next few years, state jurisdictions will shortly receive an enormous amount of cash that will be legally obligated to flow into anti-addiction spending. Due to poor outcomes and non-scalable approaches around advanced public health programs, there will be a flurry of legislature to address how to spend the $100B+ anti-addiction warchest. Players like Universal Ibogaine who have proven clinical models, can deploy infrastructure and guarantee statistically better outcomes will receive unprecedented amounts of non-dilutive government funding and will be the first to benefit from Decriminalization/Medicalization in the North American market. Players that can come to the table now at the state level and propose medicalization legislature as well as profitable clinical infrastructure with proven outcomes, could monopolize the entire US market. FieldTrip Ventures is developing Psilocybin clinical infrastructure while Universal Ibogaine is deploying proven clinical infrastructure already developed and proven by Clear Sky Recovery, the leading Ibogaine clinical experts with thousands of successful detox procedures and no critical adverse events. Closing: Like any emerging industry, there are challenges and growing pains but the blue-sky upside is unparalleled. "Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the practice of explaining widespread failure to predict them as simple folly in hindsight." Due to changes in public opinion, a mental health and addiction pandemic as well as enormous movements of liquid cash, this sector is poised to explode in 2020. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 09 Jan 2020 06:13 AM PST The survey: CFO Signals™: Q4 2019 Downturn concerns dampen 2020 revenue, earnings, investment, and hiring expectations 4Q19 Highlights: Downturn concerns dampen 2020 revenue, earnings, investment and hiring expectations.
How do you regard the status of the North American, European, and Chinese economies? Perceptions of North America leveled off, with 69% of CFOs rating current conditions as good (68% last quarter), and 23% expecting better conditions in a year (up from 15%). Perceptions of Europe rose, but only to 7% and 6%; China fell to 18% and 11%. What is your perception of the capital markets? Eighty-six percent of CFOs say debt financing is attractive. Equity financing is considered attractive by 43% of public company CFOs and 26% of private company CFOs. Seventy-seven percent say US equity markets are overvalued, up from 63%. Overall, what risks worry you the most? CFOs express ongoing trade policy worries, with growing concern about political turmoil, competition, consumer demand, and upcoming US elections. Internally, talent concerns continued, while concerns around change, costs, and growth rose. Compared to three months ago, how do you feel about the financial prospects for your company? The net optimism index rose from last quarter's -5 to +11 this quarter, but remains among the lowest levels in three years. Thirty percent of CFOs express rising optimism (26% last quarter), and 19% express declining optimism (31% last quarter). What is your company's business focus for the next year? Although companies continue to focus mostly on growth and investment, their growing focus on cost reduction and returning cash (multi-year highs) may suggest growing defensiveness in anticipation of a downturn. How do you expect your key operating metrics to change over the next 12 months? YOY revenue growth expectations slid from 4.3% to 3.7% (three-year low). Earnings rose from 5.6% to 6.0% (but still second-lowest in nine years); capital spending edged up from 3.6% to 3.7% (still near its three-year low). Hiring fell from 1.6% to 1.1% (second- lowest in six years). Dividend growth rose from 3.9% to 4.3%. What are your economic expectations for 2020? A minority of CFOs expect improvement in the US, Canadian, and Mexican economies; expectations for consumer and business spending declined sharply, and those for labor costs rose. What are the prospects for a US downturn and has your company taken defensive action? Ninety-seven percent of CFOs say a downturn has already begun or will next year; compared to 1Q19, companies appear to be taking more defensive action—especially around spending and headcount. What are your expectations for the capital markets in 2020? What are your expectations for your company in 2020? Compared to three years ago, how has your company adjusted its geographic focus? Are you getting pressure from stakeholders to act on climate change? More than 70% of CFOs say their company is under at least moderate pressure to act on climate change from at least one stakeholder group; the average is 2.5 groups. Is your company taking action in response to climate change? More than 90% of CFOs say their company has taken at least one action in response to climate change, with the average CFO reporting nearly four. Does your company have greenhouse gas reduction targets? Overall, 44% of all responding CFOs (52% of those who know their status) say their company already has or is working on greenhouse gas reduction targets. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 09 Jan 2020 08:13 PM PST P/E ratio of almost 11, dividend of almost 3%. What's the catch? Their plugin hybrids are great. They obviously understand EVs. Seems like they're poised to grow AT LEAST as fast as the industry does, Automaker growth is projected to be low but I disagree. Batteries and EVs are advancing quickly. Cars are advancing more quickly. There hadn't been much progress in cars for decades, until now. People can comfortably drive a 20 year old vehicle today, I drive a 2001 VW GTI and it's not terribly different from a 2020 VW GTI. Literally 20 years without much progress. 20 years from now I guarantee EVs will be a lot more advanced than they are today. Batteries will advance more quickly than the internal combustion engine has. Someone driving a 5 year old EV will have a lot more reason to upgrade than someone driving a 5 year old ICE. So I believe people will start buying cars more frequently. I'm bullish on EVs. PHEVs are the most rational transition and Toyota has the best PHEVs. I see no reason to believe they won't be making great EVs soon. I can't really think of a bear case for Toyota except the fear that startups will beat them, but I don't see why that would happen. And without assuming a doom future for them the current valuation seems way too low. [link] [comments]  |
| Is there still anyway to buy just one share paper stock certificate as a gift to love one ? Posted: 10 Jan 2020 02:36 AM PST I am planning to buy a stock share for myself and for love one , is there still any way to do that to have a physical certificates, the real paper stock certificate.
Because I cant find any review about this website, I am afraid would there be a scam ? I don't know if this is beneath this sub's interest, but I think it would be really cool. [link] [comments]  |
| Am I the only one who is absolutely terrified by this article? Posted: 09 Jan 2020 08:16 PM PST |
| Posted: 09 Jan 2020 04:24 PM PST Is there like a website or something that can display this information? [link] [comments]  |
| Struggling to see why 5G is viewed as a big catalyst for Apple (and other phone makers) Posted: 09 Jan 2020 12:47 PM PST One of the biggest things that's being talked about when it comes to Apple is how the 5G supercycle will supercharge earnings and get the Iphone to be a top performer but I am struggling to understand that thesis. 5G is no doubt coming, but the companies benefiting from the adoption of 5G will likely be those who are building the technology itself and the infrastructure. I see 5G as a tailwind for Nokia, AMT, Ericsson, Verizon etc. I don't think there are many customers out there who want an Iphone, can afford to get one, but are holding out for 5G? The top priorities of smartphone buyers camera performance, battery and new software features. I can't imagine most people are even aware of what 5G really is [link] [comments]  |
| When should I sell stock that I intended to make dividends from? Posted: 09 Jan 2020 06:21 PM PST So I was planning to mainly hold some Ford stock for long time dividend return but what should I do if the stock spikes (assuming it's not guaranteed continuous growth)? Should I sell then wait til the stock goes back down or at that point am I just missing the point of dividend investing? Thanks in advance. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 09 Jan 2020 10:41 PM PST Hey! I'm just getting into investing and have some money that I've had sitting in the bank account now. So I just recently send over the funds to hit my limit for 2019 but I was wondering would I be able to hit my limit for 2020 now also or do I have to wait until after April 15th for that? Thanks [link] [comments]  |
| Thoughts on Roundhill Bitkraft esports ETF (NERD) Posted: 10 Jan 2020 12:40 AM PST Hello investors, I am currently mid-career and am lucky enough to have a decent pension, and a 401K / Roth IRA investment strategy going for the last 15 years. Recently I started to hate myself for not taking some of the money I have languishing in savings so I started to look at investing a little per month into the stock market. I found a few articles shedding light on the exploding esports and gaming industry in general so I did some research and found Roundhill's ETF which started up in June for around 14.50 a share. It went up a few bucks since then, but as a newbie to the stock market, I wanted to see if continued investment is a good idea. This is fun money at the moment but might turn it into a 3rd retirement stream of it gets more serious. Thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
| Does Charles Schwab allow day trading without daily limitations? Posted: 10 Jan 2020 03:52 AM PST I started to invest into Robinhood and did some day trading however I was met with a notice stating I am limited to 5 day trades unless I have $25,000. I would like to day trade with less money ~$10,000 until I get a better grasp on investing (I'm 5 weeks in). Edit: I couldn't find another post or anything online about day trading limits on CS. Thanks!!! [link] [comments]  |
| Trying to beat the market through fundamental analysis Posted: 09 Jan 2020 10:21 AM PST Hi fellow subredditors, Are you trying to become the next Warren Buffet? Are you trying to use fundamental analysis, using metrics like P/E to buy cheap stocks in order to gain long-term alpha? Is it not working out that well? If it isn't working, this PSA is for you. Buying a stock based on fundamentals with no context is like buying a house that's 3 bed, 2.5 bath, and 2000 square feet without knowing other important details. Sure, you could simply pay less for those walled-off requirements, but that doesn't make it a good deal. Location matters. Condition matters. Year built matters. The finishes matter. Special features matter. The size of the yard matters. Taxes and HOA matter. If all you look at is the beds, baths, and square footage, you would end up with ONLY run down houses in bad locations that cost you more in the long run. $HPQ with a lower P/E, higher dividend, and technically higher growth than $ADSK does not inherent make it a better stock to own. (Note: this is not an endorsement for either). As much as fundamental analysis can do for us, it can also lead us widely astray. It's different than technical analysis, but don't think it is inherent better; used wrong, it can also be objectively worse. It mostly depends on how it is used. All that being said, please don't be afraid to run DCF or whatever, which is incredibly useful, but do it in context and with judgement. Regards. [link] [comments]  |
| I don't think I really understood how index fund dividend reinvestment works Posted: 10 Jan 2020 02:10 AM PST Let's say I buy a share of an accumulation index fund tracking SP500 for 100$. Let's say SP500 return in 2020 will be 20%. If the fund was a distribution one I would own a share worth 120$ at 31 Dec 2020 and the fund would give me dividends (ie 0.1% per share), right? What about the accumulation fund? How does it work? Are dividends added to my share's value or what? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 09 Jan 2020 09:59 PM PST One of the Fed members said they may need to extend repo operations until at least through April. I thought this was supposed to end this January? "It may be appropriate to gradually transition away from active repo operations this year as Treasury bill purchases supply a larger base of reserves, though some repo might be needed at least through April, when tax payments will sharply reduce reserve levels," Mr. Clarida said. https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-adds-83-1-billion-in-short-term-money-to-markets-11578582197 [link] [comments]  |
| Do you guys put money in your index funds annually? Posted: 09 Jan 2020 04:55 PM PST Last year I put about 5k into Vanguard S&P500 admiral shares index fund. Throughout last year I set aside money monthly as I read here that putting a lump sum money is better than Dollar Cost Averaging. I bought the shares at $256 and it's now $300. I am wondering if people put more money annually to gain more shares and profit for an index fund or it's a one time payment and then. "fire and forget"? I will be putting down $1200 dollars. I am wondering if that's not worth it since the price of the share is so high at $300. If so then do I look for another low priced index fund or I stick with my initial 5k till I pull it out for retirement? I want the investment to grow and hoping I can pull out like $ 200k in 30 years when I retire. Thank you [link] [comments]  |
| Vtsax is it better than Fzrox mutual funds ? Posted: 09 Jan 2020 11:51 PM PST Looking at Vtsax it has about 1k more companies then FZROX but it seems to invest in Vtsax you need $2500 from get go. Some people don't have $2500 sitting around to dump in market. FZROX at least lets you invest whatever amount. So, besides larger blend is there anything else that makes Vtsax special? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 09 Jan 2020 11:42 PM PST
I started investing in June last year and my portfolio is only around 15k so far. I am also relatively new to Canada so I am still learning about how things work. Thank you for your help in advance. [link] [comments]  |
| How much money has slipped pass you by waiting for a stock to hit your intrinsic value? Posted: 09 Jan 2020 11:34 AM PST |
| What's your particular quirk when it comes to investing? Posted: 09 Jan 2020 06:59 PM PST What's a habit you have as an investor that you can't seem to fix? Mine is insisting on buying when the price of a single share ends on a 0 or 00, such as $5.00 or $550. Another would be buying in multiples of 10 no matter the price of the stock. [link] [comments]  |
| Any good book to learn about US Bonds investments? Posted: 09 Jan 2020 05:50 PM PST Hi so I'd like to buy a book that will teach completely, the fundamentals of US bonds (including company etc.). Is there any book on amazon.com that teaches an investor, without going into mathematical details of it all? Thanks! [link] [comments]  |
| Where do reinvested dividends go? Posted: 09 Jan 2020 09:33 PM PST Using Charles Schwab. They give you the option to reinvest dividends. Say you by one stock in a company and then choose reinvest dividends. Obviously the dividend payout won't be nearly enough to buy a single stock, so where is that money going? [link] [comments]  |
| How to convert IRA to Roth IRA Posted: 09 Jan 2020 08:49 PM PST
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| Posted: 09 Jan 2020 08:42 PM PST Hey folks. Anybody seen a great meta-analysis of robo-advisor research? Or even an article that picks apart a particular AI platform (or type of platform). OR a good comparison of returns from various robo-advisors? I'm extremely curious about these tools to manage a passive portfolio, but also because I want to invest directly in the leaders in the field at some point. So I figure now is the time to get an idea of who is doing this well. [link] [comments]  |
| VUG vs VTI- What are your longterm bets on? Posted: 09 Jan 2020 08:42 PM PST The standard answer parroted here is VTI, Total Market diversification instead of growth, but let's look at the statistics: VUG: 34.6% 52-week performance, 9.2% lifetime NAV VTI: 25.56% 52-week performance, 7.02% lifetime NAV Both rock nearly identical expense ratios. Sure, "past performance does not always equal future results," but it's certainly a data point in determining future investment allocations. The real question is if the "losers" of VTI drag it down enough where VUG is the better long-term option. Some of these megacap companies have the same power as those of small-medium countries. Am I really to believe they won't be around in 30 years? And that if a recession did hit, that Small Cap companies wouldn't be wiped out harder than they are? Why would I go VTI over VUG for all of my taxable account investing? [link] [comments]  |
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