Value Investing Scion Asset Management 13F May '19 |
- Scion Asset Management 13F May '19
- High risk; high reward; Qudian (QD:NYSE)
- Question about MSFT depreciation on Income Statement
- Chinese internet selloff and Weibo (Chinese Twitter)
- Reminder: Unofficial NYC Meetup Tomorrow
- How misinformed are these guys?
| Scion Asset Management 13F May '19 Posted: 01 Jun 2019 08:34 AM PDT |
| High risk; high reward; Qudian (QD:NYSE) Posted: 01 Jun 2019 02:19 PM PDT Recently, I initiated a long position on QD:NYSE (Qudian). In the past year, QD have repurchased >25% of their entire market cap in shares. They're also growing at around a 20 - 25% clip, but have been priced for failure - despite all evidence to the contrary, sentiment is unbelievably bearish. Should the stock price drop (which it most likely will given the negative China sentiment), I have 2 more bullets ready to fire. Full 15-minute deep dive into QD: Due to the economic conditions they've wound down their DaBai Autos lending sector. Having said this, they've now dedicated 100% of their focus to growing their micro-lending business - in Q1 of 2019, the majority of their revenue growth came from off-balance sheet transactions, reflecting them shifting their business model from direct lending to lending intermediary (which addresses the regulatory crackdown concerns). They've forecasted revenue for FY 2019 to be at least RMB 3.5B; if we have some favourable exchange rates this should see their PE per ADS down to ~3! QD does not come without its risks though - if we dig carefully into their 20-F, we'll see that even though they're growing off-balance sheet transactions aggressively, they have guaranteed their institutional lending partners any defaults - this means they will pay the shortfall of defaulted loans that haven't been repaid (in-part or in-full), to their finance partners. Having said this, it looks like they're sensibly managing their delinquency rates at ~3-4% (and slightly decreasing). Should QD continue to exercise prudent management of delinquents, I believe they will soon mean revert back to a fair valuation, once the fears of regulation, trade war, China slow down, and etc. have blown over. As always though, DYOR, because this is definitely a higher risk but higher reward investment! [link] [comments]  |
| Question about MSFT depreciation on Income Statement Posted: 01 Jun 2019 01:42 PM PDT In the cash flow statement, they add 2926M back to the net income. But in the income statement (page 3) I can't find where they actually address the depreciation. Page 32 states "A portion of amortization and depreciation is included with various other costs in an overhead allocation to each segment; it is impracticable for us to separately identify the amount of amortization and depreciation by segment that is included in the measure of segment profit or loss." So where do they actually address depreciation in the income statement? [link] [comments]  |
| Chinese internet selloff and Weibo (Chinese Twitter) Posted: 31 May 2019 05:08 PM PDT There is an absolute slaughter-fest in China's stock market at the moment! A stock that has been hit extra hard is Weibo (WB:NASDAQ). Not only has it been sold off because of fears of the entire Chinese market slowing down, but after Baidu (BIDU) reported disappointing numbers, all internet stocks in China got immediately sold off the day following. Having said this, Weibo is a strong and healthy company growing at a ~20% clip. They have >500 million MAUs and >200 million DAUs. Popularly known as the Twitter of China, if we dig deeper, we'll realize that it's much much more; furthermore, >93% of their user base are mobile users - mobile digital ad spending in China is forecasted to grow exponentially - it'll also become the dominant form of digital advertising by 2020. I've put together a ~20 minute video analysis on why I believe Weibo is undervalued: Thoughts and feedback welcome! Disclosure, I'm looking to initiate a position <$40 and see it potentially going as low as $30 or even $25 if the trade war persists. [link] [comments]  |
| Reminder: Unofficial NYC Meetup Tomorrow Posted: 31 May 2019 08:32 AM PDT When: Saturday June, 1st Where: West Third Common 1 W 3rd St, New York, NY 10012 Time: 4PM Edit 3:55PM: Table area is reserved in the back corner when you walk in [link] [comments]  |
| How misinformed are these guys? Posted: 31 May 2019 07:10 AM PDT https://old.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/buxrlf/anyone_use_the_little_book_that_beats_the_market/ In the link OP asks for feedback on Magic Formula Book by Greenblatt, and the top comments are dissing JG saying he hasn't made any money from trading and what not. One guy even says he tried it for 1 year and didn't get results so he quit even though JG clearly says to have a minimum 3 year frame. Whether the formula works or not, how can these guys diss Greenblatt so casually? Makes me laugh at their delusions. [link] [comments]  |
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