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    Monday, April 15, 2019

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Apr 15, 2019

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Apr 15, 2019


    r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Apr 15, 2019

    Posted: 15 Apr 2019 01:08 AM PDT

    These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday including during our themed posts.

    Some helpful links:

    If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

    Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky..

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Like a surfer dwarfed by a cresting wave, investors await a sea of earnings to wash over them this week

    Posted: 15 Apr 2019 04:50 AM PDT

    US Stocks Preview Ahead of the Open

    • Global stocks are drifitng higher this morning in anticipation of additional positive earings reports this coming week with front-month Dow Jones minis +0.08%, S&P 500 minis +0.09% and Nasdaq 100 minis +0.04%
    • China in considering shifting some agricultural tariffs to other items to allow President Trump to claim help for farmers ahead of the 2020 elections; part or all of the tariffs on $50 billion in US goods that were retaliatory could be changed, according to Bloomberg
    • President Trump renewed his attacks on the Federal Reserve this weekend, saying the stock market would be "5,000 or 10,000 points higher" if the Fed had not raised interest rates
    • The S&P 500 is within 2% of its all-time high, driven by a rally in tech and consumer discretionary stocks. We have been telling our community members and followers to buy tech and consumer discretionary since the beginning of the year. At this point, we are now looking at underperforming sectors like Consumer Staples and Healthcare stocks to find hidden gems with lower betas.
    • The EU voted today to start trade talks with the US in an effort to eliminate industrial goods tariffs
    • The United States will announce Empire Manufacturing data for April at 8:30 AM today. Economists expect 8.0 to be reported for April Empire Manufacturing compared to 3.7 in the prior period.
    • The VIX is moving up this morning and is currently at 12.35 after closing at 12.01 last week
    • Volatility for ALL asset classes is dropping across the board as we enter the 1Q earnings season. Obviously, low volatility is typically associated with upward moves in stocks but things are THAT calm to warrant a VIX around 12. Remember, our thesis for a rally out of earnings season is that estimates have been cut too much but if options markets are already pricing that in, we would be worried we don't see the upward pop.
    • SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (XLF) May 17 & 18 OTM Calls, SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) April 18 OTM Calls and Coty (COTY) April 17 Calls & Puts are the most actively traded options contracts in US pre-market trading this morning
    • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -0.54 basis points to 2.5597%
    • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 1.17 basis points to 0.16%
    • WTI Crude is currently up 0.49% to USD$63.89/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread down USD$-1.1 to USD$6.72/bbl
    • Gold is currently down -0.3% to USD$1286.53/oz

    Stocks Trending in the News

    • American Airline (AAL) has joined Southwest Airline (LUV) in cancelling its 737 Max flights into the summer. American cancelled flight with the 737 Max until August 19th. The 2 airlines are cancelling 275 flights per day until mid-August. Southwest Airlines operates the largest 737 fleet in the US with American the second largest. Airlines had hoped for a quick return of the jet but now they are anticipating being without it for most of the summer. American Airlines is rated "Neutral" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Neutral" in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas. Southwest Airline is rated "Neutral" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Attractive" in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas
    • CVS Health (CVS) is attractive and it is time to buy, according to Barron's. Barron's says despite the recent weakness in the stock, CVS' assets leave it well-positioned for a future when consumers have more control over their own healthcare decisions. CVS Healthcare is rated "Neutral" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas
    • Jumia Technologies (JMIA) debuted Friday and rose 54%. Jumia is called the Amazon (AMZN) of Africa though is based in Berlin. Jumia is a 7-year old online retailer that raised $196 million in its IPO. Jumia has 4 million customers in 14 countries and hopes to expand aggressively post-IPO. Jumia is not rated on our Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Publicis Groupe (ENXTPA:PUB) Is acquiring Alliance Data System's (ADS) Epsilon unit for $4.4 billion. Epsilon is said to add 13% to Publicis' earnings in the first year. Epsilon is focuses on data management, identity resolution on loyalty programs. Publicis expects to see $60 million in cost savings by 2022. Publicis expects to expand the reach of Epsilon upon its acquisition. Publicis Groupe is rated "Unattractive" in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. Alliance Data Systems is rated "Neutral" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Neutral" in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk tweeted another production forecast while he is in the middle of negotiation with the SEC over his tweeting of relevant company information. Musk tweeted that Tesla will produce 500,000 cars over the next 12 months, 2 months ago a similar tweet started his problems with the SEC. Analyst have commented he chose a strange time to tweet this information out given his ongoing talks with the SEC. Tesla is rated "Top Short" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Neutral" in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Walt Disney (DIS) announced that its new streaming service will launch November 12th with a $7 monthly cost, a bet that it can undermine Netflix will a considerably cheaper charge. Netflix's most popular plan costs $11. Disney's service will be full of its original movies, plus content from its Star Wars, Marvel and Pixar franchises. Disney expects the service to break even within 5 years. Wal Disney is rated "Neutral" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Top Buy" in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Waste Management (WM) is nearing a deal to buy its rival Advanced Disposal Service (ADSW) in a $2.9 billion deal, according to the WSJ. It is being reported that Waste Management will pay $33.15 per share for its rival, paying a 22.1% premium to Friday's close. Including debt the deal is worth about $5 billion. Waste Management is rated "Neutral" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Attractive" in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas. Advanced Disposal Service is rated "Attractive" in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Attractive" in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.

    International Stock Markets Recap

    • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently up +0.26%, the FTSE 100 is higher by +0.12%, the DAX has risen +0.25%, and the CAC 40 is up +0.23%
    • Banks (+0.85%), Media (+0.84%), and Insurance (+0.72%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
    • Basic Resources (-0.48%), Real Estate (-0.25%), and Oil & Gas (-0.16%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
    • Investor sentiment for European stocks is positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 2.39x
    • 172 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 42 stocks are at 4-week lows
    • 91 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 6 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
    • The Nikkei 225 finished up +1.37%, the Hang Seng ended down -0.33%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise declined -0.24%, and the CSI 300 was -0.33%
    • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 9.23x
    • 23 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 36 stocks reached 4-week lows
    • 4 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 9 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
    • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 0.35x
    • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 5 stocks reached 4-week lows
    • 4 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 0 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
    submitted by /u/QuantalyticsResearch
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    Lyft's stock continues to dive after its dismal week

    Posted: 15 Apr 2019 09:06 AM PDT

    https://wetradehq.com/blog/Lyft's-stock-continues-to-dive-after-its-dismal-week

    • Lyft hit a new 52-week low on Monday after dropping nearly 20% over the previous week.
    • Analysts continue to question the value of the stock as its larger rival Uber gears up for its IPO roadshow.
    • Uber is expected to seek a valuation between $90 and $100 billion.
    submitted by /u/WeTradeHQ
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    METRO INC. ($MRU:TSX) will be the first grocery chain to allow customers to bring their own reusable containers

    Posted: 15 Apr 2019 09:03 AM PDT

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/metro-to-permit-reusable-containers-in-some-departments-1.1244565

    METRO INC. ($MRU:TSX) will be the first grocery chain to allow customers to bring their own reusable containers

    submitted by /u/RandomGuyNumber1
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    How the Disney-Netflix streaming war will create collateral damage

    Posted: 15 Apr 2019 08:05 AM PDT

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-disney-netflix-streaming-war-will-create-collateral-damage-2019-04-15

    Five main companies — including Roku, Amazon and AT&T — will be competing for viewers

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    CNBC - Boeing to cut Guidance for the current quarter and next. Full year to be cut as well.

    Posted: 15 Apr 2019 12:13 PM PDT

    CNBC - Boeing to cut Guidance for the current quarter and next. Full year to be cut as well.

    Just commented on CNBC Live TV.

    submitted by /u/trainwreck001
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    Boeing brainstorms to regain trust in MAX, Trump urges rebranding

    Posted: 15 Apr 2019 01:22 PM PDT

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-airplane-trump-idUSKCN1RR0YS

    "What do I know about branding, maybe nothing (but I did become President!), but if I were Boeing (BA), I would FIX the Boeing 737 MAX, add some additional great features, & REBRAND the plane with a new name. No product has suffered like this one. But again, what the hell do I know?" Trump tweeted.

    submitted by /u/DamnStrongCoffee
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    Spotify shares fall on report Amazon in talks to launch ad-supported music offering

    Posted: 15 Apr 2019 10:20 AM PDT

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-spotify-tech-stocks-amazon-com/spotify-shares-fall-on-report-amazon-in-talks-to-launch-ad-supported-music-offering-idUSKCN1RR1O1

    Shares of Spotify Technology SA fell 4 percent on Monday after a report said Amazon.com Inc was in talks to launch a free ad-supported music service, which is expected to intensify competition for the music streaming leader.

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    Ireland’s Green REIT puts itself up for sale

    Posted: 15 Apr 2019 11:37 AM PDT

    Dublin-listed real estate investment trust, Green REIT, is putting itself up for sale
    in a bid to "maximise value for shareholders".

    https://www.creherald.com/irelands-green-reit-puts-itself-up-for-sale/

    submitted by /u/Creherald
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    What is the best way to get the earnings report?

    Posted: 15 Apr 2019 11:05 AM PDT

    As per title. I am a noob and I have never read an earnings report. Where do I read them and where do I go to get them the fastest? In addition, when earnings have not met the expectations do the market almost always go down?

    submitted by /u/KomputerIdiat
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    RHT: Still room to get in?

    Posted: 15 Apr 2019 01:15 PM PDT

    Has the ship now sailed? I just reviewed the balance sheet and was pleased. I now understand why Buffett bought in. At the current price, I feel it is a bit expensive. I feel like $115 would be a fair price. Any thoughts?

    submitted by /u/gymaliz
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    United Airlines cancels all 737 Max flights through early July - CNBC

    Posted: 15 Apr 2019 11:30 AM PDT

    United Airlines cancels all 737 Max flights through early July - CNBC

    • United Airlines has extended cancellations of the Boeing 737 Max through early July, following similar moves by other major airlines coping with the jet's prolonged grounding.
    • United had previously cancelled all 737 Max flights through June 5.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/15/united-airlines-cancels-all-737-max-flights-through-early-july.html

    submitted by /u/trainwreck001
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    There has been leaked footage of starwars content on new disney streaming service. which has affected netflix and spiked disney in a possitive way.

    Posted: 15 Apr 2019 11:27 AM PDT

    can a simple tv show destroy rate of return for netflix. I do not invest with options. I am only investing in stocks. currently i cannot short stocks.

    submitted by /u/sexylegit
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    Thoughts on Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR)

    Posted: 15 Apr 2019 10:46 AM PDT

    What do you guys think about Voyageur Therapeutics? I recently bought 28 shares to add a bit more risk to my otherwise conservative portfolio. They are a small but rapidly growing gene therapy company aimed at tackling diseases such as Parkinson's, Alzheimer's, Huntington's disease and others. Almost all analysts classify the company as a "strong buy". With potentially billions of dollars in this critical industry, I think it is worth the risk. This is from their website "Voyager Therapeutics plans to develop life-changing gene therapies from discovery, preclinical and clinical development, through to commercialization. We focus on people living with severe neurological diseases that lack safe and effective treatment options, particularly in the areas of Parkinson's disease, a monogenic form of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) called SOD1, Huntington's disease, Friedreich's ataxia, Alzheimer's disease, and other neurodegenerative diseases related to defective or excess aggregation of tau and alpha-synuclein protein in the brain." Is it a smart buy if I am planning on holding for 5+ years? Thanks, always appreciate the feedback from this community. https://www.voyagertherapeutics.com/about-us/who-we-are/

    submitted by /u/GustaGee
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    “Glorious half-cycle market advances leave investors vulnerable to catastrophe because investors hold contempt for anyone who suggests there may be a cliff on the other side of the mountain.” -John Hussman

    Posted: 14 Apr 2019 08:13 PM PDT

    Read this and immediately thought of this sub. I wonder if /r/stocks serves or sabotages the new investors who come here seeking information...

    submitted by /u/Usezforce
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    BULL MARKET RAGING - US Housing

    Posted: 14 Apr 2019 09:01 PM PDT

    4/14/2019 11:45PM EST.

    Crude Oil to Gold: https://ibb.co/Y0MrcNg

    Crude Oil to M1: https://ibb.co/G2mM8y6

    Housing to Gold: https://ibb.co/smc0FkD

    Housing to M1: https://ibb.co/MRGTX53

    Natural Gas to Crude Oil: https://ibb.co/2dyqS8C

    Natural Gas to M1: https://ibb.co/W06GFB2

    SPX to Gold: https://ibb.co/PDg6sWw

    TLDR:

    Housing > Natural Gas [Only because of leverage and low risk]

    Natural Gas > Oil

    Oil > Gold

    Oil > SPX

    Housing > Gold

    NG/Oil > Inflation Resistant Stocks > Tech..../SPX

    Gold <=> SPX 50/50 , I hope for this to drop a bit to BTFD and then have another DOT COM.

    Portfolio:

    15% Natural Gas Futures {unless you find low maintenance ETF that tracks 1 to 1 NG.F}

    15% Oil Futures

    15% Inflation Benefiting (Not just resistant) Company Stocks, like Wells Fargo, Coca Cola. Others like Pepsi and Home Depot, while good, are expensive compared to the prior. MCD is also killing it.

    20% Cash (safety net for the below)

    35% Housing down payment on Maximum Leverage. Rental/Agricultural income must be >= mortgage. Must be low property tax zone to avoid inflation rising it too high. Ideal to buy now (we look like we are the same time period as 1985 for housing) and sell when ratio is like in 2001 and 1970s. Use your leverage now to make 50% profit at least, even if we deflate a bit soon, and swap for gold and then swap the gold for housing. Even with bullion tax, you're making stacks.

    Thoughts on Future:

    We are likely to have a repeat of the 70s/80s inflationary recessions [Stock market rises 2x but dollar worth is 10x less, so 5x relative loss at best in general stock market, unless you buy businesses that benefit from it]. Combine this with larger uneducated population now, and you will have RIOTS on street due to 3x larger wealth gap. Housing can fall 50% to GOLD but GOLD can rise 50% without $ price decline, or it can fall 50% in $ price and no movement in GOLD, but that leads to another 2001-2011 currency devaluation and a 2011 style MEGA bounce, so BTFD time there, if we get lucky.

    Either way, best spot is NGAS and OIL. Expect heavy sanctions or income embargo or war on countries with petroleum.

    This can lead to as much as $250/barrel of petroleum with current M.

    With exception of AAPL, Warren Buffet's BRK entire portfolio is positioned exactly for this.

    *WARNING*

    This can all backfire **IF** and only if FED deletes money money supply, but never did they seem to do this in pasted 60 years.

    submitted by /u/Jungleking12000
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    Viemed (TSX:VMD) expected to report great results next month, plus potential listing on the NYSE from the TSX.

    Posted: 15 Apr 2019 07:33 AM PDT

    Viemed (TSX:VMD) has been on a tear this year, it moved from the TSX Venture to the TSX a year ago today and opened at $3.28. Today the shares trade at $7.45. Analysts have targets that range from $10.50 to $13.50.

    Here's the most recent research report from Beacon:

    • "Viemed reported another record quarterly result. Q4/FY18 revenue/EBITDA was $18.5m/$5m, bringing to a close an incredibly successful year producing $65.3m/$17.2m. Q4 revenue growth was +37% y/y and 7.8% sequentially and driven by a 34% and 8.4% growth in the patient count. For FY18, revenue per patient was $12,350 v/s $11,881, +4% v/s FY17 indicating the impact of the ancillary products that VMD is selling in addition to its core NIV offering. This should continue in FY19. Period ended cash was $10.4m, up from $5.1m in Q4/FY17 despite growing 39% organically with a cap-ex budget of $14m (buying new vents), indicating the strong free cash flow. RoE was a very impressive 29%."
    • "The company gave Q1/FY19 revenue guidance of $20-$20.5 million with a similar margin profile as historic (~27%), which would imply EBITDA of ~$5.5 million ($22 million run-rate). To illustrate the very strong organic growth profile of VMD over the past 2 years, over the last 8 quarters (Q1/FY17-Q1/FY19), Viemed will have doubled revenue."
    • "In fact, we believe the growth at Viemed may be accelerating, as witnessed by Q1 sequential revenue guidance growth of 11% v/s the 8% in Q4. Consider:
    1. We know that there is a large opportunity with the entire NIV market at less than 10% of its potential. As physicians and care givers become aware of the clinical efficacy of the therapy, we believe referrals from them could snowball. The clinical study undertaken by KPMG has just been started to be marketed by Viemed. Dissemination of that report should dramatically accelerate awareness;
    2. VMD has made its initial inroads into the VA (Veterans Hospital). It believes there are likely 200,000-600,000 patients who could benefit from NIV therapy. (Note veterans have a higher likelihood of COPD than the general population). While it only has 10 patients at 4 VA hospitals, we believe this huge opportunity could come to the fore in the near future;
    3. In terms of infrastructure to handle the growth, VMD hired 9 sales reps in Q4 and 18 in 2018, bringing its total to 70. The company plans to aggressively hire new reps and both deepen coverage in existing geographic areas as well as expand into new territories. It is currently licensed in 36 states, but only operating in 25 (becoming operational in those 11 states is imminent) and it expects to be in the remainder of the Lower 48 states in the next 12 months. The company is particularly excited about the opportunity in California, Florida and Colorado."
    • "We are raising our FY19 forecast and introducing FY20 estimates. For FY19, we are moving to $83.9m/$22.8m (from $80.6m/$21.9m) and $109m/$29.7m for FY20. We are raising our target to C$10.50 (from C$9.50) to reflect our upwardly revised FY19 EBITDA forecast."

    Disclosure: I have a position in this stock.

    submitted by /u/MoreSubstance
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    Pepsi stock. Hold through quarterly report or sell now?

    Posted: 15 Apr 2019 06:16 AM PDT

    New to stocks and i have a very small position in pepsi co. Im looking to let go of this stock but the earnings report is coming on wednesday. Should i wait till then to sell my position or just let it go now? Its a small position and im currently up 2% and i no longer have an interst in holding this stock long term. Should i sell now or wait till quarterly report?

    submitted by /u/MournValas
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    does anyone know what i should do with netflix? i bought it really high and now it droped significantly with disney news. i am down 14% 6k loss. whats the best thing to do right now?

    Posted: 14 Apr 2019 10:28 PM PDT

    im stressed out becaue i don't think netflix is going to sustained. edit: i bout it around 400$

    submitted by /u/sexylegit
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    ETF's should be a safe bet, but $DIV seems fishy with an 8% Monthly Dividend

    Posted: 15 Apr 2019 08:07 AM PDT

    The $DIV stock supposedly gives out 8% in dividends EVERY MONTH and you pay 0.45% of each share you own at the end of the year. Sound fishy or is it just me?

    submitted by /u/Underground_Tech
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    Thoughts on XLNX as a long-term investment?

    Posted: 14 Apr 2019 10:00 PM PDT

    I've been seeing XLNX in the news lately and it seems that they're one of the hot stocks right now in the semiconductor industry. Their chips seem to play a big part in the development of 5G networks and also cloud computing applications. Seeing as how 5G technology looks to develop into something more and eventually become the successor to 4G, what is everyone's thoughts on investing in XLNX for the long-term?

    submitted by /u/jyw25
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    Thoughts about investing in REITs

    Posted: 15 Apr 2019 12:58 AM PDT

    Anybody here investing in REITs? I was just looking to diversify my portfolio and add some income generating stocks / REITs and wanted to see if anyone here has any recommendations. TIA

    submitted by /u/jbs5
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    Questions about how Margin interest is charged with selling options.

    Posted: 14 Apr 2019 09:37 PM PDT

    If I had 100% cash as if I were selling a cash-secured put or 100 shares of a stock to cover as if I were selling a covered call, would I be still be charged margin interest? If so, how does this work?

    submitted by /u/Steven1756
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