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    Daily advice thread. All questions about your personal situation should be asked here Investing

    April 18, 2019

    Daily advice thread. All questions about your personal situation should be asked here Investing

    Daily advice thread. All questions about your personal situation should be asked here

    Posted: 17 Apr 2019 05:15 AM PDT

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Space X completes latest funding round with $44M filled of the $400M offering

    Posted: 17 Apr 2019 05:38 PM PDT

    Form D filed today

    Not to say the offering is complete (they have 15 days to file from the initial date) but it's a pretty dismal showing.

    submitted by /u/Lost_in_Adeles_Rolls
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    Tips I learned from my investing class

    Posted: 17 Apr 2019 08:03 PM PDT

    I took a one-week night class on investing, and it was completely worth it. My teacher is a wealth advisor but only manages clients with multi-million dollar accounts. He was teaching to a class of not-even-close millionaires, so I didn't feel like it was a sales pitch like how I've felt when other financial advisors would lead seminars. He gave some pretty good advice, so I thought I'd share here. Some of it you probably know this stuff but I thought it was really good in general.

    1. Don't trust the advice of just one person (per my teacher, not even him). Warren Buffet, The Wall Street Journal, Business Week, well-known economists (well known for the industry, but not to me) have all predicted wrong. The teacher read quotes from business publications that in hindsight were obviously wrong.
    2. If you put your money in a small, private investment firm, don't feel comfortable that they have a fiduciary responsibility to you. Most ponzi schemes were committed by fiduciaries. This next part I don't really understand, but I have it written in my notes so maybe someone can clarify it....If you're going to use a small investment firm, don't trust the financial statements provided by the firm. Ask the firm to see the statements from the financial institution where the money is actually kept.
    3. Asset allocation should not be based on age or retirement date, it should be based on risk tolerance and goals. Pressuring someone in their 30s to have an aggressive portfolio when they have a low risk tolerance may cause them to panic sell when the stock market dips. Alternatively, pressuring someone in their 50s to be in a more conservative fund may cause them to feel FOMO and cause them to panic buy. The key is to try to keep emotions out of investing.
    4. Investment apps on your phone may lead to worse returns. Again, keeping emotions at bay. If you see a huge loss in one day, you might panic sell. The teacher said an actual study showed that people who have investment apps on their phone tend to perform worse, but I couldn't find the study for this. He talked about the Norwegian Investment Fund and how the fund has remained consistent in its asset allocation regardless of how the market was doing. He said they do well because they don't react to panic. He spent almost an whole hour on human psychology and how it can ruin a good investment strategy.
    5. The teacher doesn't really like target retirement allocation funds because the fees are higher, and you can build your own allocation cheaper if you put in the effort. I'm only writing this since I figure most people in this sub have enough interest to build their own asset allocation.
    6. He praised index funds for their low cost and market performance.

    Anyway, it was a lot of good info that he crammed into 5 days. I thought it was an interesting class so hopefully these pointers help someone out!

    submitted by /u/401J
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    Successful Tech IPOs of the last 3 years

    Posted: 17 Apr 2019 08:45 AM PDT

    Saw the post lamenting tech IPOs as all scams and money burners, just thought I'd share some of the more successful ones in recent times for perspective:

    SAIL IPO at $13 now $27

    OKTA at $23 now $92

    TTD at $27 now $198

    TWLO at $26 now $123

    ZScaler at $33 now $62

    But notice these are all b2b software/cyber security and not consumer facing companies, hence don't get as much hype and or attention until they have already moved.

    Just gotta do the due diligence and there are definitely some winners.

    submitted by /u/distroyaar
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    Why are people here so against real estate investing?

    Posted: 17 Apr 2019 01:26 PM PDT

    I haven't invested in real estate but I am interested in doing so sometime soon. I come here to get info about it but the advice seems to be "why bother, buy REITs for a higher return, less work" or "Put your money in an index fund". Not what I expect from an "investing" sub look down on such a major investment vehicle. Do people just not understand real estate investing and leverage? The numbers seem way better than any REITs and index funds even with management in place.

    submitted by /u/HelpingTom
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    Pinterest valued at $12.7 billion in IPO, sign of tech demand after Lyft struggles

    Posted: 17 Apr 2019 06:18 PM PDT

    How are hedge fund managers so insanely rich?

    Posted: 17 Apr 2019 09:34 PM PDT

    I was looking at a list of the richest people in NYC.

    Most of the list was hedge fund managers. Each was worth multiple billions of dollars.

    This might be a dumb question, but how do they accumulate that much wealth? Is it commissions on the money they make for people?

    Are the commissions huge? Or they just manage so much money that it adds up?

    I get that it's lucrative, but the earnings seem so out line vs other professions - like a law firm partner or hell, even Jack Bogle didn't make it to 1 billion. I can't image what it takes to accumulate multiple billions of dollars that way.

    submitted by /u/Pleather_Boots
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    Wall Street banks under pressure to make deeper cost cuts

    Posted: 17 Apr 2019 10:06 AM PDT

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-banks-strategy/wall-street-banks-under-pressure-to-make-deeper-cost-cuts-idUSKCN1RT239

    NEW YORK, April 17 (Reuters) - Top U.S. banks must make deeper cost cuts to drive earnings growth, with revenue expected to remain under pressure for the foreseeable future, analysts said.

    Cost cutting was already a major driver of bank earnings for the first quarter. With the exception of JPMorgan Chase & Co , revenue fell at the biggest U.S. lenders as lower market volatility weighed on trading and recession fears dulled clients' appetite for borrowing.

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    REITs tanking in the last few days...why?

    Posted: 18 Apr 2019 03:52 AM PDT

    I've noticed that several REITs that I watch have all dropped a similar amount since 15 or 16 April and since then their charts all look similar. Any ideas what's going on?

    SBRA WPC CHP.UN.TO DRG.UN.TO etc...

    submitted by /u/BLeakert
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    heath care nose dive in US markets?

    Posted: 17 Apr 2019 10:00 AM PDT

    The last 10 days have been rough for many health care stocks. But I have not seen much analysis in my news feeds. What's happening?

    submitted by /u/bwfrieds
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    Is purchasing more $SPY at every opportunity a good investment strategy?

    Posted: 17 Apr 2019 06:22 PM PDT

    Also what are some other good options to do over a long period of time?

    submitted by /u/codered99999
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    Dividend Portfolio vs High yield dividend ETF?

    Posted: 17 Apr 2019 11:56 AM PDT

    What are some pros and cons of building a high dividend yield portfolio made of stocks as opposed to simply owning a high yield dividend ETF? are there any studies on risk/reward?

    submitted by /u/gymaliz
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    What made you sell most of your individual holdings and just index? And what individual holdings did you keep?

    Posted: 17 Apr 2019 05:26 PM PDT

    How often is there a consensus price for a private company and who does the main valuations?

    Posted: 17 Apr 2019 12:25 PM PDT

    Weak Chinese imports push U.S. trade deficit to eight-month low

    Posted: 17 Apr 2019 08:22 AM PDT

    Amazon, facing entrenched rivals, says to shut China online store

    Posted: 18 Apr 2019 12:26 AM PDT

    While Alibaba is expanding into Russia and Europe more and more(opening of logistics centres) Amazon gives up the fight in China.

    ​

    The move underscores how entrenched, home-grown e-commerce rivals have made it difficult for Amazon's marketplace to gain traction in China. Consumer research firm iResearch Global said Alibaba Group Holding's Tmall marketplace and JD.com controlled 82 percent of the Chinese e-commerce market last year.

    ​

    ​

    ​

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-amazon-com-china/amazon-facing-entrenched-rivals-says-to-shut-china-online-store-idUKKCN1RT2AL

    submitted by /u/Elh0mbreloco
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    Can a company trade its own derivatives?

    Posted: 17 Apr 2019 11:58 PM PDT

    For example, it wants to hedge stock decreases, so it buys puts. Or it expects prices to rise considerably, so instead a shares buyback, it buys calls. Or just sells/buys derivatives based on the expected volatility, as if it was an investment fund. Is that allowed?

    What about trading other companies derivatives? I remember Buffet selling puts of some companies, so it seems to be allowed if it's another companies's derivatives.

    What about trading as an individual in your companies (you own a high percentage of its shares) derivatives?

    Edit: It seems to be allowed: https://www.optionseducation.org/referencelibrary/white-papers/page-assets/corporaterepurchase-11-2001.aspx

    submitted by /u/Yyk3
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    Is it over for NIO?

    Posted: 17 Apr 2019 11:05 PM PDT

    Things are looking extremely grim for NIO. It has fallen below $5 from $10 in February and is now trading at a 52-wk low of ~$4.6. It seems all but over for this hyped Chinese EV company.

    Here are the pros and cons I've gathered for NIO.

    Let's consider the cons:

    • Tesla is expanding their market in China
    • Volkswagen is expanding their market in China
    • NIO is losing hundreds of millions per quarter
    • Sketchy accounting

    Let's consider the pros:

    • TenCent owns 20% of NIO
    • NIO will begin delivering their new model ES6 in June 2019. Price may rise in anticipation of that
    • China could potentially reverse on their removal of EV subsidies. They've been known to change their mind in the past
    • China says their "opening up" but if the trade war goes south they could continue to clamp down on foreign car companies and give NIO a chance
    • NIO has fallen so much so rapidly, that if it were to bounce, it would go back up very quickly
    • They slightly beat analyst delivery estimates this quarter

    Is this an opportunity to load up on shares and calls, or the easiest short ever? Does it have any chance of even reaching $8 again?

    submitted by /u/KroehberHall
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    Apple/Qualcomm settlement. How confidential?

    Posted: 17 Apr 2019 10:33 PM PDT

    I am wondering how confidential a settlement and ~5 year deal between 2 publicly traded companies could be? At the very least, wouldn't the monetary terms of the settlement have to be disclosed in the public filings?

    submitted by /u/FullPotato2
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    Atlassian Q3 2019 Earnings Breakdown

    Posted: 17 Apr 2019 02:12 PM PDT

    IFRS Basis

    • Total revenue was $309.3 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2019, up 38% from $224.3 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2018.
    • Operating loss was $27.6 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2019, compared with operating loss of $10.3 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2018
    • Operating margin was (9%) for Q3 2019, compared with (5%) for Q3 2018.
    • Net loss was $202.8 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2019, compared with net loss of $15.8 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2018
    • Net loss per diluted share was $0.85 for the third quarter of fiscal 2019, compared with net loss per diluted share of $0.07 for the third quarter of fiscal 2018.
    • Cash and cash equivalents, and short-term investments at the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2019 totaled $1.8 billion
    • Atlassian ended Q3 2019 with a total customer count, on an active subscription or maintenance agreement basis, of 144,038
    • Atlassian added 5,803 net new customers during the quarter
    • Next Quarter Outlook: Total revenue is expected to be in the range of $329 million to $331 million
    • Next Quarter Outlook: Gross margin is expected to be approximately 82% on an IFRS basis and approximately 85% on a non-IFRS basis.
    • Next Quarter Outlook: Operating margin is expected to be approximately (13%) on an IFRS basis and approximately 13% on a non-IFRS basis.
    • Next Quarter Outlook: Net loss per diluted share is expected to be approximately ($0.17) on an IFRS basis, and net income per diluted share is expected to be approximately $0.16 on a non-IFRS basis
    • 2019 Outlook: Total revenue is expected to be in the range of $1,205 million to $1,207 million.
    • 2019 Outlook: Gross margin is expected to be approximately 82% on an IFRS basis and approximately 86% on a nonIFRS basis
    • 2019 Outlook: Operating margin is expected to be in the range of (7%) to (6.5%) on an IFRS basis and in the range of 19.5% to 20% on a non-IFRS basis
    • 2019 Outlook: Net loss per diluted share is expected to be approximately ($1.78) on an IFRS basis, and net income per diluted share is expected to be approximately $0.82 on a non-IFRS basis
    • 2019 Outlook: Cash flow from operations is expected to be in the range of $425 million to $435 million and free cash flow is expected to be in the range of $385 million to $395 million, which includes capital expenditures that are expected to be approximately $40 million.
    submitted by /u/EarningsCallsApp
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    What do you think/advice you have to give about leveraging your own investments with a low interest loan?

    Posted: 17 Apr 2019 09:18 PM PDT

    Imagine I have $100k and I can get a $100k loan for a 2.5% rate / year.

    I invest in the stock market and in the next 10 years I get a 7% / year.

    • What is the down side to this?

    I would also have "safety net" funds for the amount paid every year in case the market crashes, in this case $2500 / year.

    I would pocket $4000+ just doing this.

    • Questions

    Should I do this? I can do it, but should I?

    Why is this better/worse than just buying TQQQ or any other 2-3x leveraged 2-3x ETF?

    I'm assuming my safety net tactic would work for the following 2 years after a crash?

    Thanks!

    submitted by /u/furyasd
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    Pepsico Q1 2019 Earnings Breakdown

    Posted: 17 Apr 2019 04:39 AM PDT

    • Net revenue growth 2.6%
    • Foreign exchange impact on net revenue (3)%
    • Earnings per share (EPS) $1.00
    • EPS growth 6%
    • Foreign exchange impact on EPS (2)%
    • Organic revenue growth 5.2%
    • Guidance: Full-year organic revenue growth to be 4%
    • Guidance: A core effective tax rate of approximately 21%
    • Core EPS $0.97
    • Core constant currency EPS growth 3%
    submitted by /u/EarningsCallsApp
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    Alcoa Q1 2019 Earnings Breakdown

    Posted: 17 Apr 2019 01:51 PM PDT

    • Net loss of $199 million, or $1.07 per share
    • Excluding special items, adjusted net loss of $43 million, or $0.23 per share
    • $467 million of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) excluding special items
    • Revenue of $2.7 billion
    • $168 million cash from operations; $99 million free cash flow
    • $1.0 billion cash balance and $1.8 billion of debt, for net debt of $0.8 billion, as of March 31, 2019
    • Alcoa reported first quarter 2019 revenue of $2.7 billion, down 19 percent sequentially, also primarily due to lower alumina and aluminum prices.
    • Cash used for financing activities was $199 million and cash used for investing activities was $59 million.
    • Alcoa ended first quarter 2019 with cash on hand of $1.0 billion and debt of $1.8 billion, for net debt of $0.8 billion.
    • For 2019, Alcoa projects a global aluminum deficit ranging between 1.5 million and 1.9 million metric tons, down from last quarter's full-year estimate of between 1.7 million and 2.1 million metric tons.
    • Global aluminum demand growth for 2019 is estimated to range between 2 to 3 percent, down from 3 to 4 percent in the previous quarter, predominantly due to lower demand growth in China, especially in the transportation and electrical sectors.
    submitted by /u/EarningsCallsApp
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