Value Investing Resources to study of Soros trades? |
- Resources to study of Soros trades?
- Damodaran's take on equities in 2019
- Richard Lawrence: Lecture on International Value Investing
- What's been going on with Mortgage Backed Securities in the last several years?
- BamSEC Alternative?
- Sears Bankruptcy Docket
- Magnora Investment Case - Thoughts Appreciated
- Bristol-Myers to Acquire Celgene in Deal Worth $74 Billion
- Recent Interview with FPA's Steve Romick
| Resources to study of Soros trades? Posted: 04 Jan 2019 03:52 AM PST Are there any good resources to study Soros trades? Any books or videos that goes into detail of his analysis, research process of his trades and investments? Thank you! [link] [comments]  |
| Damodaran's take on equities in 2019 Posted: 03 Jan 2019 08:20 AM PST |
| Richard Lawrence: Lecture on International Value Investing Posted: 03 Jan 2019 12:12 PM PST Good lecture on value investing with an international perspective at the Ben Graham Centre for Value Investing [link] [comments]  |
| What's been going on with Mortgage Backed Securities in the last several years? Posted: 03 Jan 2019 01:48 PM PST I just read the big short. I know I know, but if you bear with me: -How have ratings agencies changed their methods? -What regulations were put into place? -Are people still investing in MBSs? I would imagine the 2008 crash scared a ton of people away. -Housing prices are a mega peaks. Does this have anything to do with people getting easy loans again? -Anything else interesting going on with MBSs? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Jan 2019 06:41 PM PST Is there a free resource that competes with BamSEC's ease of use? I have Bloomberg but it's awful for getting clean readouts of financials, and it feels silly to pay for Bam. Any ideas are appreciated. (I looked here but it's dated: https://www.reddit.com/r/SecurityAnalysis/comments/4tx3gh/bamsec_alternative/) [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Jan 2019 03:25 PM PST |
| Magnora Investment Case - Thoughts Appreciated Posted: 03 Jan 2019 09:27 AM PST Hi all, I have been posting on and off on this sub and I wanted to post an investment idea I've been playing around lately. Would really appreciate any feedback. Let me know your thoughts ! Sovereign Magnora (MGN NO) is a legacy company based in Norway. It has no direct operations, following a divestment of its core business in 2017 and a return of capital (8.5 NOK per share) earlier this quarter. However, Magnora earns licensing revenues from two agreements: the Western Isles Agreement (where the underlying asset is operated in the UK North Sea) and the Penguins Agreement (where the underlying asset is being built in APAC). Magnora has a market cap of 342m NOK or 40m$, and 81.6m NOK in cash pro-forma for the return of capital. A. Western Isles Agreement The Western Isles development consists of production and water injection wells tied back to a new build FPSO with oil export using shuttle tankers. The Western Isles Agreement gives Magnora the right to $0.5/boe produced and offloaded from the Western Isles FPSO during the lifetime of the FPSO (estimated to be 15 years, however Magnora has guided for a potential life of 20-25 years). The FPSO is owned and operated by Dana Petroleum, which used to be listed but is now fully owned by Korea's National Oil Corporation ("KNOC"). The Western Isles Agreement is KNOC's largest project. First oil was achieved in Q4 2017, and the project has a daily production capacity of 44,000 boe. Magnora does not have any operations but essentially just earns licensing revenues. The revenue from the Western Isles Agreement so far has been 6.8m NOK in Q1, 15.2 in Q3 and 13.8 in Q3. I estimate the run-rate revenue to be ~54m NOK per year (assuming 85% capacity on the 44k boe/d (vs 97% implied in Q2 and 88% in Q3 from the revenue numbers) and a 7.9 USD to NOK hedged exchange rate). At a 10% discount rate the 15 years revenue stream is worth NOK 7.8 per share. B. Penguins Agreement The outstanding milestone payments for the Penguins Agreement are conditional on: completion of the unit (an FPSO), start up and successful production. The party the FPSO is set to be delivered to is a JV between Shell and ExonMobil so I would say there's not a lot of counterparty risk here. The total nominal value for the total payment is 16m$ over 3 to 5 years. I'm not too sure what value to put on this – after all Magnora is not directly involved and the related parties may just fail to deliver, things could go wrong. Assuming a 50% probability and a payment of the 16m$ only in five years + a 10% discount rate, I find a PV of 43.2m NOK or 0.8 NOK per share. Assuming a 100% probability of success would push this up to 1.6 NOK obviously. The co said it estimates office costs of 10m NOK which I value at a 10% discount rate, implying a value of NOK -1.9 per share. Valuation SOTP, NOK per share + 7.8 -- Western Isles + 0.8 -- Penguins + 1.6 -- PF cash - 1.9 -- Head office costs = 8.3 -- Equity per share Now the full value assuming the Penguins Agreement will be successful is closer to 9 NOK, while if you add an increase in estimated FPSO life to 20 years for the Western Isles FPSO instead of the current 15, you get to NOK 10. For a downside valuation, there's really not much to say here beyond assuming the Penguins Agreement will never yield anything for Magnora and using a higher discount rate on the Western Isles Agreement of 15%, which would result in a 6.1 valuation per share for Magnora. Conclusion I think there is a bit of a value disconnect here, since my valuation gets me to ~30% upside. The implied dividend yield for next year is ~13% based on my 54m NOK revenues and 10m head office cost divided by the most recent share count. Magnora said it would look to return all cash to shareholders unless it found other opportunities. Management also has the possibility to buy back shares, which was granted at a recent EGM. I'm not too afraid of management re-investing in bad ideas. In fact I don't expect them to reinvest much of the cash unless they find great opportunities. The team seems to have good background and reputations in the North Sea E&P space. Overall, this is mostly a dividend yield play. However, I would caveat that a) this is a fairly illiquid stock, and some banks got stuck on the shareholder register in a reverse offering. As a result Sparebank is the top shareholder with 15%, I'm not sure whether they really intend to be a long term holder of this and they may dump the shares. I note that in the reverse offering (organized to get rid of a large annoying shareholder (Teekay)), almost all holders doubled their holding; b) there's no catalyst and no reason for the stock to appreciate beyond future dividend payments, and/or value recognition. There's of course the small chance that management finds a great opportunity but I wouldn't count on this. Edit: formatting + ticker [link] [comments]  |
| Bristol-Myers to Acquire Celgene in Deal Worth $74 Billion Posted: 03 Jan 2019 07:40 AM PST |
| Recent Interview with FPA's Steve Romick Posted: 03 Jan 2019 12:24 PM PST |
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