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    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Jan 07, 2019

    January 07, 2019

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Jan 07, 2019

    r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Jan 07, 2019

    Posted: 07 Jan 2019 04:09 AM PST

    These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday.

    Some helpful links:

    If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

    Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky..

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    I Read The News So You Don't Have To - Market News (January 7, 2019)

    Posted: 07 Jan 2019 04:36 AM PST

    UNITED STATES

    • Futures are flat
    • America and China begin trade talks in Bejing today -- the first face to face meeting since agreeing to a 90-day truce more than a month ago
    • The national security adviser, said the US won't withdraw troops from Syria until the safety of Kurdish fighters there has been assured
    • With the government shutdown entering week three, Donald Trump is considering declaring a national emergency to secure funding for his border wall with Mexico
    • Growth in Average Hourly Earnings beat economists expectations

    OTHER

    • Theresa May said a parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal will go down next week, despite signs it will likely fail. Britain is due to leave the EU on March 29th.
    • French, German, and UK Service activity is plummeting and UK consumer confidence is being eroded
    • German unemployment hit a multiyear low
    • The King of Malaysia married a former Russian beauty queen and quit being King - the first time a king has abdicated the throne in the country

    CHINA

    • The People's Bank of China cut the reserve requirement for banks
    submitted by /u/ogordained
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    BRK.B questions

    Posted: 07 Jan 2019 11:42 AM PST

    I'm trying to find out how many outstanding shares that BRK.B has. I have access to E*Trade which shows 1.4B. FINVIZ for BRK.B shows 2.47B. Yahoo Finance Yahoo Finance for BRK-B shows 1.36B.

    How can I determine which is correct? Additionally, the I'm having trouble finding the SEC EDGAR online filings for BRK. Can someone point me in the correct direction on that? Thanks in advance!

    submitted by /u/Tettamanti
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    Your AM Global Stocks Preview and a whole lot more news that you need to read: Global stocks drift lower to start week as Friday’s momentum fades

    Posted: 07 Jan 2019 04:51 AM PST

    US Stocks

    • US stocks index futures are drifting lower to start the week with front-month Dow Jones minis +0.03%, S&P 500 minis -0.11%, and Nasdaq 100 minis -0.30%
    • According to Fundstrat's Tom Lee, the number of stocks in the S&P 500 with P/Es south of 15.0x outnumbers those that are valued more than 25.0x with the spreading have increased nearly 15 points since the end of CY2017 – Lee suggests that US stocks are offering "real value" for investors for the first time in years
    • Strategists at French investment bank SocGen believe earnings growth in the US and Europe will be flat in CY2019 with risks coming from semiconductors and capital good stocks. SocGen favors pharmaceutical and HPC stocks within the "defensive" healthcare and consumer staples sectors.
    • JP Morgan stocks strategists disagree with strategists at SocGen and suggests record levels for stocks buybacks, best in world earnings growth, and an acceleration in top-line growth point to continued support for US stocks valuation
    • The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) experienced positive inflows of USD$2.1 billion last week
    • Emerging Markets ETFs experienced their 12th straight week of inflows last week with inflows to emerging markets stock ETFs +USD$1.01 billion
    • The VIX is moving up this morning and is currently at 22.15 after closing at 21.38 yesterday
    • Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) February 15 OTM Puts, HYG March 19 OTM Puts, EEM February 15 OTM Calls and SPY January 11 OTM Calls are some of the most actively traded options contracts in the US pre-market this AM
    • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -2.49 basis points to 2.6428%
    • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 1.47 basis points to 0.16%
    • WTI Crude is currently up 2.5% to USD$49.18/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread up USD$0.84 to USD$9.86/bbl
    • Gold is currently up 0.45% to USD$1291.82/oz
    • Today's move, if it holds, would be the sixth consecutive advance for WTI crude oil and would be the highest price level for WTI in 3 weeks

    Stocks Trending in the News

    Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.

    • Amheuser-Busch Inbev (BUD) was downgraded by Goldman Sachs today to neutral from buy. Amheuser-Busch Inbev, like a number of players in the sector, are likely to have a tough 2019 as demand is expected to be less than originally expected. Amheuser-Busch Inbev is rated "Top Short" in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • CBS News (CBS) has named its first female president of the company. CBS News named Susan Zirinsky, the producer of "48 Hours", as its new president. CBS news has suffered ratings weakness and the loss of key anchors and its new president will be tasked with turning the division around. CBS Corp. is rated "Neutral" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Top Buy" in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Dollar Tree (DLTR) has Starboard Value as a shareholder, with a 1.7% stake, according to the Wall Street Journal. Dollar Tree is being pushed to sell its Family Dollar division and to make changes to its pricing model. Starboard Value has also named seven candidates for Dollar Tree's board. Dollar Tree is rated "Neutral" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Neutral" in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Eli Lilly (LLY) is acquiring Loxo Oncology (LOXO) for USD$235 per shares, or about USD$8 billion. Eli Lilly is expanding its cancer treatment business with the acquisition. The companies will hold a press conference this morning to go over the details of the deal. Eli Lilly is rated "Attractive" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. Loxo Oncology Nvidia is rated "Top Short" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Nvidia (NVDA) introduced a new gaming chip, the GeForce RTX 2060 chip, last night at a CES event. The RTX 2060 is 60% faster than prior generation chips and according to the company, puts Turing architecture within reach of many more PC gamers worldwide. Nvidia is rated "Attractive" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Top Buy" in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • PG&E (PCG) is considering whether to file bankruptcy protection, according to a report in Bloomberg. PG&E is looking to the state of California to help it with legislation as it faces billions and billions of dollars in liabilities over the fire. PG&E has not made any decision yet as to how it will proceed. PG&E is rated is "Attractive" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Tesla (TSLA) today broke ground on its new factory in China. Tesla calls the newest factory Gigafactory 3 and is located in Shanghai. Tesla's factory will be the first production facility of its type that is fully owned by a foreign company. Tesla expects to build the factory in record time. Tesla is rated "Unattractive" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Attractive" in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.

    European Stocks

    • European stocks are declining this morning with the surge in investor optimism from last Friday loses momentum
    • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently down -0.46%, the FTSE 100 has declined -0.57%, the DAX has fallen -0.57%, and the CAC 40 is lower by -0.61%
    • According to UBS, European stocks valuations are implying at 18% cut to CY2019 ESP estimates (assuming a return to a 14.5x long-term forward 12-month P/E) -- according to the analysis, nearly 22 out of the 29 major European sectors imply double-digit reductions to forecaster EPS
    • EPS growth is now forecasted to be +7.8% for CY2018, down from +9.1% at the end of November.
    • Investor sentiment for European stocks is negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 0.99x
    • Utilities (-0.27%), Banks (-0.5%), and Basic Resources (+0.66%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
    • Retail (+0.26%), Health Care (-0.76%), and Construction & Materials (-0.52%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
    • 81 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 23 stocks are at 4-week lows
    • 3 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 5 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
    • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is moving up this morning and is currently at 21.08 after closing at 20.48 yesterday
    • EUR€ is currently up +0.412% against the USD$ to 1.1442
    • GBP£ is currently up +0.244% against the USD$ to 1.2754
    • CHF is currently up +0.523% against the USD$ to 1.0183
    • UK 10-Year GILTs are higher with yields down -4 basis points to 1.236%

    Asian Stocks

    • Asia stocks start the week positive ahead of US-China trade negotiations, playing catch-up with the rally in US stocks on Friday
    • The Nikkei 225 finished up +2.44%, the Hang Seng ended up +0.82%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise up +0.94%, and the CSI 300 was +0.61%
    • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 14x
    • 1 stock in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 34 stocks reached 4-week lows
    • 0 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 24 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
    • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 3.55x
    • 4 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 17 stocks reached 4-week lows
    • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 4 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
    • Japan 2-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 1.3 basis points to -0.165%
    • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 2.8 basis points to -0.01%
    • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has widened 1.5 basis points to 0.16%
    • JPY¥ is currently down -0.184% against the USD$ to 108.31
    submitted by /u/QuantalyticsResearch
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    Priced-in

    Posted: 06 Jan 2019 04:34 PM PST

    This term, "priced in," is thrown around here a lot. Does anyone here actually believe algorithms & investment professionals genuinely have enough information about the future global positioning of any single company in the nexus of interconnected arts & commerce (markets) at every level to actually "price-in" those foreseeable & unforeseeable events into an accurately predictive model?

    I would love to see some data relating to any firm, or hedge fund, or broker that has evaluated what has & hasn't been "priced-in" to a specific stock, & if there's any real evidence of predictive stock evaluation models using this data point actually working.

    I just keep hearing, "it's been priced-in," & thinking, how the fuck would you know this, internet friend? Because from where I'm standing, this volatility seems to repudiate this notion that anything can be priced-in, that we can't effectively account for small shifts, & only marginally account for longer cycles...

    submitted by /u/onemanstrong
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    Which should you sell first option or stock when trimming a position?

    Posted: 07 Jan 2019 10:12 AM PST

    If you have a few hundred shares of a stock trading at $50 and you have long equity call option contracts expiring in 2020 with a strike of $10 and a breakeven if $15, and you're trying to reduce the position slightly, which should you sell first or it doesn't matter? I would assume the stock because the spreads are likely still high on the options but I'm not sure.

    submitted by /u/runfastination
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    Do you think the Amazon and Netflix stocks going to continue rising tomorrow?

    Posted: 07 Jan 2019 01:53 PM PST

    What else will start rising? Do you think Apple is going to stagnate for a while?

    submitted by /u/gaulileo
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    Question/ Opinion

    Posted: 07 Jan 2019 01:23 PM PST

    So I'm a 19 year old in college want to get into stocks but skip the high broker fees. Was looking a lightspeed. But I wanted to ge an opinion on if buying a stock when the market opens and sell that stock in the same day when the market closes is a good idea.

    submitted by /u/vin313
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    Question about Nokia phones and it's stock

    Posted: 07 Jan 2019 07:00 AM PST

    Hey guys - I'm absolutely clueless with regards to stocks - but here's the thing: I have inherited quite a lot of NOK stock, my dad bought them when they were the shit, basically, but have over the years fallen down to basically shit. I have kept an eye on the news coming out of Nokia, however, and their new phones are obviously making quite the buzz - but I have also seen that the phones are in fact produced/manufactured by another startup that basically just bought the brand.

    So my question is; does or would NOK and Nokia as a company "go hand in hand" with any potential successful new Nokia phones that are coming out? Does the potential success of any of the new Nokia phones impact the NOK stocks positively, or is that out of the question since they seem to have sold the rights to their brand in regards to mobile phones to this startup that now manufactures them?

    I hope my question makes sense. I'm not quite sure it does though.

    submitted by /u/seppo1337
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    Does tradingview measure MA using mo ths as a unit instead of days?

    Posted: 07 Jan 2019 12:40 PM PST

    I'm trying to test out some theories that require to 36 month average of major indices, someone recommended trading view for me and I put what 36 months would be in terms of days for the S&P 500 and it said the moving average was around 400... Which isn't right, by really any means.

    So does it measures the moving average based on months since that would bring me back to before the S&P became too be what it is today

    submitted by /u/roberthinkey
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    12 Data Points on Apple's Q1 Profit Warning

    Posted: 07 Jan 2019 12:20 PM PST

    1. Apple stock has declined (36)% from its October 2018 52-week high.
    2. Over $400 billion of market cap wiped out with stock decline.
    3. Apple reduced Q1 2019 revenue guidance by (8)% due to China & iPhone.
    4. China slowdown significant since region was 18% of Apple revenue during Q4 2018 and Q1 2019 warning implied revenue declined 25-30% year-over-year.
    5. Replacement cycles for iPhones in China lengthening due to lower carrier subsidies, cheaper to replace iPhone batteries, and iPhone prices rising.
    6. China's Huawei launching comparable products to iPhone for significantly lower prices.
    7. Developed markets saw slowing iPhone upgrades: on average, US iPhone customer upgrades every 26 months.
    8. Apple has $130 billion of cash and will likely accelerate buybacks and dividends as part of "net cash neutral" goal.
    9. Wall Street was caught off guard by announcement and cut 2019 EPS estimates to $12 based on Q1 2019 warning.
    10. Gross margins came in at 38% for Q1 2019 at low-end of expectations: likelihood of excess iPhone inventory likely impacts Apple for rest of 2019.
    11. Bright spot of Q1 2019 earnings was growth of high-margin services business.
    12. Apple bears argue that we are past "peak smartphone" and Apple's innovation cycle is too slow.

    ​

    sourced from: https://blog.milton.ai/watch-video-10-data-points-about-apples-q1-2019-profit-warning/

    submitted by /u/theNonlinearity
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    What would the maximum fee (as a percentage) you would take to fund your trading account?

    Posted: 07 Jan 2019 11:51 AM PST

    Reason for my question is I trade US stocks with a broker in Australia (where I'm originally from).

    Now that I am living and working in the US, and earning USD, this broker charges a flat $20usd fee to fund my account with USD (they usually make their money on the conversion of Australian dollars to USD).

    I am considering doing funding $1000 at a time however this is still a 2% fee essentially. The more money I fund, the less the fee becomes. What would be an acceptable "fee"?

    submitted by /u/drspeedyy
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    Buy Stocks?

    Posted: 07 Jan 2019 09:55 AM PST

    Any suggestions on what stocks to buy today? I am looking for something new to buy and I wanted to know what you guys think.

    submitted by /u/SadFarm1
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    Question about Options

    Posted: 07 Jan 2019 09:36 AM PST

    So I was wondering if for example I could buy Calls or Puts and just have the money for buying the option. And not enough money to exert the option. And sell them at a better price?

    ​

    For example :

    I have 10 000 USD , I want to buy AMRN calls at 11$ , for 2.25$ a pop -> 225 a contract

    So 44 contracts. Now If Amarin rises to 20 USD, Can I just sell the option to someone else? And if so, is that the best thing to do?

    ​

    submitted by /u/Equintex
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    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/07/netflix-wins-big-at-the-golden-globes.html

    Posted: 07 Jan 2019 09:05 AM PST

    Netflix's big night at the Golden Globes gives a nod of confidence for its original content

    submitted by /u/briskaM
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    Greenspan says stock market "is still a bit too high"...

    Posted: 07 Jan 2019 08:32 AM PST

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/greenspan-says-stock-market-is-still-a-bit-too-high-2019-01-07

    I think he is just being politically correct or using Trump's advise to "just feel the market and ignore the numbers".

    As the matter of fact as of today the stock market is overvalued by 32% based on GDP vs Market Capitalization Ratio of 122%.

    https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php

    submitted by /u/GOVADM
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    Why is UPS much higher valued than FDX?

    Posted: 07 Jan 2019 01:56 AM PST

    UPS's PE/PB/PS all much higher than FDX, why is the market giving the high value on UPS than FDX?

    I use both and feel like they are pretty much the same (UPS slightly better)

    submitted by /u/Canopian
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    Want to be a big money millionaire (1M+ net worth)? Buy AT&T stock. #1 easy money investment for 2019 IMHO

    Posted: 07 Jan 2019 12:43 PM PST

    I was buying more during the xmas eve VIX spike. You all were laughing at me for getting heavily involved with ATT. It has popped up with a quick gain and the dividend is downright juicy.

    ​

    Quick move to 35 then i might take some chips off the table... We may head to 42 to new highs!

    ​

    Doesn't work out as planned with gains not coming quick enough? No problem look at that big FAT dividend. Get paid to wait and eventually ring the register.

    submitted by /u/panchilly
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    How does vanguard work ?

    Posted: 06 Jan 2019 03:39 PM PST

    I understand the vanguard group is owned by its funds, what I dont understand is who decides the salaries, roles and structures of the business.

    submitted by /u/flandcdn
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    $NFLX and $AAPL

    Posted: 06 Jan 2019 03:36 PM PST

    [ADVICE REQUEST] Share increase for no reason - Berkeley Energia (BKY) FTSE

    Posted: 07 Jan 2019 01:11 AM PST

    I've been keeping an eye on Berkeley Energia (BKY) on FTSE and they experienced a 35% increase in share price on Friday for no reason, leading to the company having to make an official statement this morning and declaring they don't know why it has increased so suddenly. I invested in the stock on Thursday by sheer luck of reading an article about coal mines in Spain closing down by the end of 2019, and I'm wondering if I should expect a sharp decrease in share value if this is just a freak incident and if there are any trends with this kind of stock behaviour.

    ​

    Any advice on the matter would be hugely appreciated.

    submitted by /u/Western_Preston
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    What kind of numbers do you anticipate on Wall Street with a trade deal?

    Posted: 06 Jan 2019 03:34 PM PST

    We all know the trade negotiations between America and China has put a dark cloud over the markets. Monday a 2-day meeting will take place in Beijing "The talks are expected to focus on the protection of intellectual property and Chinese industrial policy, which Washington believes has put US companies at a disadvantage."

    ​

    What kind of numbers do you think we can see on Wall Street if a solid deal is reached or it completely falls apart???

    submitted by /u/tj-looking-talking
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    iTunes available on Samsung Smart TVs?

    Posted: 06 Jan 2019 04:46 PM PST

    I thought I bought Apple TV for a reason :( Who wins in this deal? How does this make Apple look? Samsung ?

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-switches-strategy-allows-samsung-smart-tvs-to-feature-itunes-video-content-2019-01-06?siteid=rss&rss=1

    submitted by /u/Luisg92
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