Microsoft finished last year with the highest market cap in the world, first time they've accomplished that since 2002 Investing |
- Microsoft finished last year with the highest market cap in the world, first time they've accomplished that since 2002
- Why don't we all join Credit Unions?
- A discussion on Berkshire Hathaway and Apple
- Buffett May Have Lost $21.6 Billion in Apple to Date
- Stock markets explained in 15 secs
- Apple tanks 10%, on pace for its biggest single-day loss in 6 years
- So why isn't there more hubbub about M1 on this subreddit?
- Dow drop is now 550 points - Happy New Year!
- Best plays/return/investment if USA and China signs trade agreement
- CNBC: US updates warning over China travel, urging 'increased caution'
- Why are stock prices tied to company performance?
- How long do bear markets take to recover?
- Investing in stocks
- Apple is going to go into a huge decline here. Iphone in 2019 is like PC industry in 2009.
- What are other types of investments people can have rather than the conventional stocks, housing, land, startups and franchising?
- Are fidelity/schwab ask/bid sizes in millions?
- Global stocks climbed Friday, staging a partial rebound from Thursday’s steep losses
- Do you prefer Yahoo Finance or Google Finance for analyzing your investment decisions? Why?
- How low are you willing to go? I have been waiting for the market to drop and have some cash that I have set aside specifically to take advantage of the market cycle and use it when the market starts to drop. Now that there is some volatility coming back, I am curious how many of you are waiting
- Apple Sensationalism
- Square Chooses Blizzard Entertainment Executive to be New CFO
- The future might not belong to China: Replicating the success of other high-growth economies is about to become far harder
- Some charts I look at every month to determine my bear/bull leaning
- Time to buy Gold and Silver Stocks?
| Posted: 03 Jan 2019 09:39 PM PST According to wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_public_corporations_by_market_capitalization Pretty incredible to stay so incredibly relevant over such a long period of time. [link] [comments]  |
| Why don't we all join Credit Unions? Posted: 03 Jan 2019 08:22 PM PST Intro: Today I've learned that KeyPoint Credit Union (I have a car loan there) is a not-for-profit financial institute as any other Credit Unions. This was an eye-opener for me. I've read a little bit about Credit Unions, what they are and how they are the difference from regular banks. Whatever I've read was promoting Credit Unions for its better customer satisfaction rating, its cheaper loans and higher dividends due to tax-free operation. Let's face it:
Slogan: With Credit Union, You are not just a customer, you are the owner. Why don't we all join Credit Unions and f**k banks off? Seriously, what do I miss? [link] [comments]  |
| A discussion on Berkshire Hathaway and Apple Posted: 03 Jan 2019 04:12 PM PST With AAPL taking a beating recently, I've been reading a lot of comments about how much money Berkshire Hathaway lost (unrealized losses) and whether Buffet made a mistake again investing outside of his area of expertise (tech stocks). Here are my thoughts on the matter that I hope will help existing/potential shareholders of AAPL and BRK.B (If you can afford BRK.A, you're ahead of the game than the rest of us).
All that being said, there's always a possibility that AAPL might turn out to be another IBM. But having a strong balance sheet and generating massive cash flows minimizes downside risk and gives AAPL time to rethink its growth strategy. There's always risk in the stock market, but a key to generating long term returns is to minimize your downside risk. Also very important to keep in mind that you only invest money that you DO NOT have an immediate need for. Expect other popular stocks to take a beating at some point in the future when people realize there will be periods when a company cannot keep growing revenues indefinitely. At this point I believe BRK.B is a more compelling buy than AAPL though. I get exposure to AAPL and a plethora of other stocks and businesses well entrenched in the American economy. Here is a slightly dated but still relevant slideshow of the true value of Berkshire https://www.tilsonfunds.com/BRK.pdf (Analysis starts after the 15th slide or so). BRK generally trades at a price to book value around 1.45. It is currently trading at a price to book value of 1.26. Add to that a conservative 5% growth in book value (Though Buffet has said they can manage higher than that) and share buybacks (they recently bought back shares at higher prices because they believed it to be undervalued), I expect annual returns of close to 20% for shares bought today when the shares trade at fair value again. TLDR: Buy Berkshire for a conservative portfolio. Consider buying AAPL if you're a more aggressive investor. I am long BRK.B EDIT: To answer the question as to what would happen to Berkshire after Buffett, the slides address the topic towards the end. The gist of it is, Buffet's death is already factored into the price and his management team should continue to do a decent job. There might be some volatility in the stock price soon after, but business fundamentals should remain intact. If you want to read more about the topic, I would suggest this book https://www.amazon.com/Berkshire-Beyond-Buffett-Enduring-Values/dp/0231170041. EDIT 2: Check out these slides https://www.tilsonfunds.com/BRK.pdf for any questions you may have about BRK. I'll try my best to answer any that aren't addressed in there. [link] [comments]  |
| Buffett May Have Lost $21.6 Billion in Apple to Date Posted: 03 Jan 2019 07:45 PM PST (REUTERS) …Assuming Berkshire hasn't sold any shares, the value of its 5.3 percent Apple stake fell to about $36 billion on Thursday, from $57.6 billion on Sept. 30. [link] [comments]  |
| Stock markets explained in 15 secs Posted: 03 Jan 2019 10:53 PM PST It is almost weekend folks and we all need a break from this roller coaster. For your amusement, the stock market in 15secs. Try to guest who the analyst and hedge fund managers are: https://twitter.com/abeautifulmind7/status/1079390035974057986 [link] [comments]  |
| Apple tanks 10%, on pace for its biggest single-day loss in 6 years Posted: 03 Jan 2019 07:47 AM PST
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| So why isn't there more hubbub about M1 on this subreddit? Posted: 03 Jan 2019 05:58 PM PST I've seen a few threads on it, but lord almighty a brokerage firm with zero fees -and the ability to sock away some bucks into an index fund without any fees . . . isn't that a wet dream of this whole subreddit audience? (note--I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop on this, or someone showing me it's too good to be true. . .haven't found it, but would like to know if it indeed is too good to be true) [link] [comments]  |
| Dow drop is now 550 points - Happy New Year! Posted: 03 Jan 2019 07:23 AM PST |
| Best plays/return/investment if USA and China signs trade agreement Posted: 03 Jan 2019 11:40 PM PST 3-6 months, it can be ETF, single stocks etc. What companies have taken a bearing and have the highest potential? [link] [comments]  |
| CNBC: US updates warning over China travel, urging 'increased caution' Posted: 03 Jan 2019 01:05 PM PST Summary:
In my opinion, to some little guys who have no powerful friends in Washington DC, getting trapped in China for years could be an irrecoverable disaster in life. [link] [comments]  |
| Why are stock prices tied to company performance? Posted: 04 Jan 2019 12:15 AM PST So I get that when you're buying a stock, you're buying a share of ownership in a company, so in some simplistic way it makes sense that your share should be "more valuable" when the company is more successful. But in practice I'm having trouble understanding why that should be the case. What I mean is, after the IPO, it seems like there is very little which relates the share price to the company at all. If I buy a common stock from another investor, I'm not giving the company more capital to grow it's business with. And if the company gets more successful it seems like the only thing that changes is that my share becomes more attractive to other investors. But that's kind of circular, because the share is only more attractive to other investors because they think it will increase in value to other investors. I know there are things like dividends, and voting rights, but for the average retail investor that vote will mean a minuscule impact as far as the direction of the company, and the income generated from the dividend will be relatively small compared with what they hope to gain from the value of the stock. And there are such things as non-voting, no-dividend stocks like GOOG (alphabet class C). Am I totally off base here? [link] [comments]  |
| How long do bear markets take to recover? Posted: 03 Jan 2019 09:37 PM PST In your opinion. Is this a bear market? How long untill we hit the bull do you speculate it will be? Do you think tech will rain supreme again in this next bull? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 04 Jan 2019 02:42 AM PST I am a 16 year old in a competition with £10,000 to invest on a market simulator until July 1st. My objective is to earn more than my other competitors so I'm looking for a safe investment and don't really know where else to ask any advise would be appreciated. I don't mind losing and I will if I try to invest myself I will. [link] [comments]  |
| Apple is going to go into a huge decline here. Iphone in 2019 is like PC industry in 2009. Posted: 03 Jan 2019 06:06 PM PST https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSYBtoTcxTY Smart phones are about 10 years behind desktop computers in terms of performance. Remember the first iphone in 2007? It was ~300mhz which was the speed of a pentium2 top-of-the-line desktop computer in 1997. If you look at the numbers you will find that this pattern roughly holds across many variables (memory capacity, gpu performance, cpu performance, etc.) . The first 1ghz CPUs arrived in 2000. First 1ghz smart phone? 2010. 1997->2007 was a period of rapid increases in desktop and laptop capability. Because of the huge speed gains, people rushed to upgrade every 2-3 years triggering huge sales and a boom for many companies like Dell, HP, etc. replacement cycles were very short in this time period. In 1997 it might have been as low as 2 years! This hugely inflated sales numbers. 2007 and 2008 were turning point years for desktop computers. It was clear then that the pace of improvement had slowed way down. Over time the replacement cycle steadily increased. This really became noticeable in the late 00's around 2009-2010. Computer capability simply was not getting that much better every year by then so replacement cycles skyrocketed. People started holding on to desktops and laptops for 5+ years. This caused the industry to go into decline in 2011 and only recently came out of that. I believe 2017 and 2018 were turning point years for smart phones. My personal phone (an iphone) was built in 2017 and I really have no plans to upgrade near term. How much better is the new one over a 2017 model? 20%? Is that worth $1000? I used to upgrade my phone yearly. I think the 10 year difference will hold here. Replacement cycles are going to start skyrocketing and the industry will go into decline for a while just as the PC industry did. Buying apple here is like buying DELL or HP back in 2009 but without the upside of selling to the corporate and server markets. Dell at least could sell servers to the booming web services economy. Apple is purely consumer. I suspect Apple is trying to stave off this decline by jacking up prices which they have done in the past year. This might back fire triggering an even faster spike in replacement cycles. Apple could easily fall another 50% from where we are today. Steer the hell away from this name. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 04 Jan 2019 02:10 AM PST |
| Are fidelity/schwab ask/bid sizes in millions? Posted: 03 Jan 2019 10:13 PM PST I see for certain ETFs the number is around 20-30...that is only around $300 for shares that are around $15. How do I figure out how much that number is? Is it thousands, millions? For example, https://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/goto/snapshot/snapshot.jhtml?symbols=VEGI although the market is closed now so bid and ask size are 0. [link] [comments]  |
| Global stocks climbed Friday, staging a partial rebound from Thursday’s steep losses Posted: 04 Jan 2019 03:35 AM PST China's commerce ministry said a U.S. trade delegation led by Deputy Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish will visit China on Monday and Tuesday. The news provided some relief for equities markets, which faced pressure Thursday amid intensifying fears regarding the health of the global economy. https://stockmarketnews.today/2019/01/04/global-stocks-climbed-friday-staging-a-partial-rebound-from-thursdays-steep-losses/ [link] [comments]  |
| Do you prefer Yahoo Finance or Google Finance for analyzing your investment decisions? Why? Posted: 04 Jan 2019 03:20 AM PST |
| Posted: 03 Jan 2019 08:18 PM PST The DOW is at 22,686, which is certainly lower than that 25,000ish it's been at, but I'm hoping it will go lower and am tempted to buy a bit. Does anyone have any specific targets in mind with regards to opportunistically investing (buying low)? I know I can't time it and not trying to find the bottom but I'm sure there will be more lows, and more highs coming up too. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Jan 2019 07:44 PM PST NOTE: I am long Apple. For the record, I am not telling anybody to be long or short Apple. I do want everybody to understand that Apple is not fundamentally different than it was a week ago. It's lineup, RND, marketing, or leadership did not change overnight. Therefore all this doomsday posts on Apple just baffle me. I think it's warranted for investors to be pissed off because Apple decreased revenue guidance by 5 billion. But please put this into perspective. This industry is more than a decade old and they are projecting guidance over a 90 day period. 90 freaking days! How the heck can you judge any company based off a 90 day future? I just want to caution shorts and longs to be careful and don't buy into the sensationalism. The only fact you should know is this: forecasted revenue will decrease from 93-89 down to 85 billion for the next 90 days. Gross margin decrease from 38.5% to 38%. If you can extrapolate the death of Apple from these numbers, then I would say you are an investing God.... [link] [comments]  |
| Square Chooses Blizzard Entertainment Executive to be New CFO Posted: 03 Jan 2019 04:35 PM PST |
| Posted: 03 Jan 2019 12:49 PM PST Martin Wolf JANUARY 1, 2019 Do not extrapolate from the recent past. China has had a hugely impressive four decades. After their triumph in the cold war, both the west and the cause of liberal democracy have stumbled. Should we conclude that an autocratic China is sure to become the world's dominant power in the next few decades? My answer is: no. That is a possible future, not a certain one. The view widely held in the 1980s that Japan would be "number one" turned out to be badly mistaken. In 1956, Nikita Khrushchev, then first secretary of the Communist party of the Soviet Union, told the west that "We will bury you!" He proved utterly wrong. The examples of Japan and the Soviet Union highlight three frequent mistakes: extrapolating from the recent past; assuming that a period of rapid economic growth will be indefinitely sustained; and exaggerating the benefits of centralised direction over those of economic and political competition. In the long run, the former is likely to become rigid and so brittle, while the latter is likely to display flexibility and so self-renewal. Today, the fiercest political and economic competition is between China and the US. A conventional view is that by, say, 2040, China's economy will be far bigger than that of the US, with India far smaller still. But might this view be mistaken? Capital Economics, an independent research firm, answers "yes", arguing that China's period of stellar outperformance might be coming to an end quite soon. (See charts.) There are two powerful arguments why this view will prove to be mistaken: first, China has great potential for continuing catch-up on the productivity levels of the most advanced countries; and, second, it has a proven ability to generate sustained rapid growth. It is brave to bet against both potential and capacity. But, argues Capital Economics, in its "Long-Term Global Economic Outlook", we should. As with Japan in the 1980s, the policies of ultra-high investment and rapid debt accumulation, which kept China growing so fast after the 2008 financial crisis, make it vulnerable to a sharp deceleration. Crucially, China's investment rate, at 44 per cent of gross domestic product in 2017, is unsustainably high. This extraordinary investment rate did maintain the growth of supply and demand after the 2008 crisis. But China's public capital stock per head is already far bigger than Japan's at comparable incomes per head. Slowing urban household formation means that fewer new homes now need to be built. Not surprisingly, returns on investment have collapsed. In sum, investment-led growth must come to an early end. Because of its size, China has also hit the buffers on export-driven growth, at a lower level of income per head than other high-growth east Asian economies. The trade war with the US underlines this reality. China's working-age population is also declining. Given the huge rise in debt as well, sustaining fast growth will be very hard. Future demand will depend on the emergence of a mass-consumer market, while growth of supply will require an upsurge in growth of "total factor productivity" — a measure of innovation. Yet, in 2017, private consumption was only 39 per cent of GDP. If it is to drive demand, the savings rate must tumble and the share of household incomes in GDP must jump. Neither will be easy to achieve. But the biggest hurdle of all, especially to the needed upsurge in productivity growth, is the shift towards a more autocratic political system. For one and a half decades, China has benefited from the reforms introduced by Zhu Rongji, premier from 1998 to 2003. No comparable reforms have happened since his time. Today, credit is still being preferentially allocated to state businesses, while state influence over large private businesses is growing. All this is likely to distort the allocation of resources and slow the rate of innovation and economic progress, even if an outright financial crisis is avoided. In sum, China may well fail to replicate the success of other east Asian high-growth economies, in becoming a high-income country in short order. It will surely be far harder for it to do so, because the distortions in its economy are so large and the global environment is going to be so much more hostile. Meanwhile, suggests Capital Economics, the arrival of robotics and artificial intelligence might re-ignite productivity growth in the west and, above all, in the US. If one wished to be optimistic, one would also hope that experience of Donald Trump's incompetence and malevolence will be salutary. His hardcore supporters are a minority. Majorities of the disgusted should win and then bring about the renewal of economic competition and social concern that the US needs. The most interesting other economy is not Europe, which seems destined for a slow relative decline, but India, due to be the world's most populous country in the near future. India is far poorer than China and so still has great potential for fast catch-up growth. Capital Economics forecasts 5-7 per cent annual growth until 2040. This is at least conceivable. India's savings rates and entrepreneurial capacity are high enough to deliver such a rate. It will need much policy reform. But India's politics are increasingly focused on economic performance. This does not guarantee success. But it does make it more likely. Disheartened liberal democrats must not despair. The euphoria and hubris of the "unipolar moment" of the 1990s and early 2000s were grave mistakes. But the triumph of despotism is still far from inevitable. Autocracies can fail, just as democracies can thrive. China confronts huge economic challenges. Meanwhile, democracies must learn from their mistakes and focus on renewing their politics and policies. [link] [comments]  |
| Some charts I look at every month to determine my bear/bull leaning Posted: 03 Jan 2019 09:14 AM PST I was doing my monthly review of leading economic indicators, value assessment and other interesting charts and decided I'd share with y'all in case anyone else can learn from it. Maybe you have some charts you look at that I don't know about - I'd love to see them. Full disclosure, I'm not in camp buy-and-hold. If you are, you might not care about any of the below. That is fine, you don't need to explain to me the merits of your strategy, I understand it. I try to buy or sell based on my interpretation of the fundamental value of the asset and whether the current price is cheap or expensive. The below charts are how I go about determining that. I am fully in camp index fund though - mainly because I don't feel like I have time to research individual commodities, governments or companies and so I focus on macro trends, which is what these charts focus on. I mainly look to make moves for 2-10 year periods, maybe making 2-4 transactions a year to rebalance or increase exposure, so I'm fine with most of these charts even though they only update monthly or quarterly. If you're a day trader, this stuff won't help you much. The Charts Consumer debt & defaults - https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html Yield Curve - https://www.bondsupermart.com/main/market-info/yield-curves-chart Trading Margin Stats - http://www.finra.org/investors/margin-statistics Consumer Savings Rate - https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/personal-savings Consumer Confidence - https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence US Unemployment Rate - https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate S&P 500 PE Ratio - http://www.multpl.com Shiller PE Ratio (CAPE) - http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/ S&P 500 Price to Sales Ratio - http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-sales S&P 500 Price to Book Value - http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-book PEG - (page 6 usually) http://www.yardeni.com/pub/spearnrevalgrpeg.pdf Equity Q ratio (Corporate Equity / Assets) - https://ycharts.com/indicators/tobins_q Commodities to Equities - https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GSG:$SPX Buffett Indicator (Stock Market : GDP) - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDM01USA156NWDB US Federal Debt to GDP (yearly) - https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp US Corporate Debt to Equity - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTDTEUSQ163N Conference Board LEIs - https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1 Countdown to Next Recession Clock - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ [link] [comments]  |
| Time to buy Gold and Silver Stocks? Posted: 03 Jan 2019 10:49 PM PST I have recently been buying individual tech stocks and VOO. Is it a good time to avoid those sectors and focus on gold and silver stocks in fear of a bear market. As well as buy the dips for BTC and XRP while the market corrects and begins an upward trend. [link] [comments]  |
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