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    Thursday, January 3, 2019

    It's moronic Monday, the Wednesday edition, your chance to ask any of those questions that you're embarrassed to ask in real life. Investing

    It's moronic Monday, the Wednesday edition, your chance to ask any of those questions that you're embarrassed to ask in real life. Investing


    It's moronic Monday, the Wednesday edition, your chance to ask any of those questions that you're embarrassed to ask in real life.

    Posted: 02 Jan 2019 04:04 AM PST

    We encourage all our visitors to ask those investing related questions they were always too afraid to ask.

    The members of /r/investing are here to answer and educate!

    NOTE If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or anything similar. There is no single answer to this question, but we will also need A LOT MORE information if we are to give some sort of answer

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive girlfriend? (not really an asset)
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    AAPL Lowers Q1 Guidance

    Posted: 02 Jan 2019 01:35 PM PST

    Dow futures drop more than 300 points as tech shares get hit after hours on a warning from Apple

    Posted: 02 Jan 2019 03:07 PM PST

    Tesla misses Wall Street estimates with 90,700 vehicle deliveries in fourth quarter, shares tumble

    Posted: 02 Jan 2019 05:42 AM PST

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/31/tesla-4q-2018-production-and-delivery-numbers.html


    Tesla disappointed investors Tuesday, saying it delivered less vehicles than expected during the fourth quarter despite efforts to ramp up production.

    Its shares fell by about 5 percent in premarket trading.

    Tesla previously gave investors hope that its production rates would improve, saying that the number of labor hours to build the Model 3 fell by more than 30 percent from the second to the third quarter. The company also told investors in late October that it took less time to build than the Model S sedan and Model X sport utility vehicle — another first for the company.

    "We will focus even further on cost improvements while continuing to increase our production rate" during the fourth quarter, the company said at the time.

    CEO Elon Musk announced Oct. 23 that the company planned to limit certain options on its higher-end Model S sedans and Model X SUVs to streamline production. The company also announced plans during the fourth quarter to start selling a $45,000 version of the Model 3, before raising the price $46,000. It has yet to produce the base Model 3, which it has promised for a price of $35,000 before incentives.

    The fourth quarter marked an end to a $7,500 federal tax credit that Tesla was able to use to lure buyers in the past. That was cut in half to $3,750 starting Jan. 1.

    submitted by /u/closingbell
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    What are your predictions for stocks that will be worth 100x their present day value in 20 years (like buying Apple, Amazon, etc. in 1999)?

    Posted: 02 Jan 2019 03:40 PM PST

    What are your predictions and the reasons behind them. One such stock is perhaps Tesla. They have a high valuation, but they are about 15x their IPO price as of today. With self driving cars and advances in battery storage, my GUESS is that they might hit 100x their IPO price in 20 years.

    What stocks do you think have a 100x potential in 20 years?

    submitted by /u/zqrt
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    Apple Market Cap Lost $57 billion after hours

    Posted: 02 Jan 2019 04:28 PM PST

    Here are the market caps of some companies:

    Sony: $61BN Mondelez $58.2BN

    Sberbank: $57.6BN

    Daimler: $55BN

    TMobile: $54BN

    Baidu: $55.2BN

    @zerohedge

    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1080584896651948034

    submitted by /u/markyu007
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    Casino industry veteran Lyle Berman bets on esports gaming company

    Posted: 02 Jan 2019 11:14 PM PST

    Lyle Berman, a legendary Minnesota businessman and a member of the American Gaming Association's Gaming Hall of Fame, is getting into the emerging esports gaming industry and is reuniting with one of his previous gaming businesses in his latest venture.

    Berman, 77, a co-founder of Grand Casinos Inc., is using a special-purpose acquisition company based in Minnesota, Black Ridge Acquisition Corp., to buy two companies and form Allied Esports Entertainment.

    "Esports is going to explode," Berman said. "By everybody's prediction there are more people who will be watching it [esports] in a few years than watch the NFL, NBA and baseball combined."

    Full article: http://www.startribune.com/casino-industry-veteran-lyle-berman-bets-on-esports-gaming-company/503571412/

    submitted by /u/Visionswas
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    Pros and cons of REITs in the stock market?

    Posted: 02 Jan 2019 08:06 PM PST

    Why is this a good/ bad idea? Would you put 10k into a real property instead? I know tennants usually suck.. Thanks for your input!

    submitted by /u/relaxedallday
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    Goldman says Apple will have to cut 2019 numbers even further, compares iPhone maker to Nokia

    Posted: 03 Jan 2019 04:33 AM PST

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/03/goldman-sachs-says-apple-will-have-to-cut-2019-numbers.html


    Shortly after Apple slashed its revenue guidance for the first quarter, Goldman Sachs said the iPhone maker will likely have to bring down numbers for the full year. As those results drop further, so will the company's shares, the firm said.

    "We see the potential for further downside to FY19 numbers depending on the trajectory of Chinese demand in early 2019," wrote Goldman's Rod Hall in a note to clients late Wednesday.

    The company sees first-quarter revenue of $84 billion vs. a previous guidance of a range of $89 billion and $93 billion. Analysts expected revenue of $91.3 billion for the period, according to the consensus estimate from FactSet. Apple blamed most of the revenue shortfall on a slowing economy in China in the second half.

    Apple shares dropped more than 9 percent to $143.70 in premarket trading after ending the first day of 2019 at $157.92. And Goldman's Hall slashed his 12-month forecast to $140 from $182. He also lowered his full-year 2019 revenue estimate by 6 percent to $253 billion and his full-year EPS estimate by 10 percent to $11.66.

    Nokia comparison "We have been flagging China demand issues since late September and Apple's guidance cut confirms our view," wrote Hall. "We do not expect the situation to get better in March and would remain cautious on the region."

    But the analyst went further, comparing Apple to the fallen phone maker Nokia, which became reliant on customer upgrades in the face of a saturated market more than a decade ago. Customers delayed replacing their phones for longer and longer as economy slowed, Goldman notes.

    "Nokia saw rapid nexpansion of replacement rates in late 2007 that was well beyond what any linear forecast would have implied," wrote Hall. "Beyond China, we don't see strong evidence of a consumer slowdown heading into 2019 but we just flag to investors that we believe Apple's replacement rates are likely much more sensitive to the macro now that the company is approaching maximum market penetration for the iPhone."

    Goldman got to its new price target by applying just a 12 multiple to the firm's new earnings estimate. Its previous price-earnings ratio was 13.6.

    submitted by /u/closingbell
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    Bristol-Myers to buy Celgene in a $74 billion deal; Celgene shares surge

    Posted: 03 Jan 2019 04:32 AM PST

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/03/bristol-myers-to-buy-celgene-in-a-74-billion-deal.html


    Celgene shares surged 32 percent in premarket trading on Thursday after Bristol-Myers Squibb announced plans to buy the cancer drugmaker in a cash and stock deal valued at $74 billion.

    Under the agreement, Celgene shareholders will receive 1 Bristol-Myers Squibb share and $50 in cash for each share held, or $102.43 per share, a premium of 53.7 percent to Celgene's Wednesday close.

    Shares of Bristol-Myers Squibb were down more than 13 percent in premarket trading.

    "Together with Celgene, we are creating an innovative biopharma leader, with leading franchises and a deep and broad pipeline that will drive sustainable growth and deliver new options for patients across a range of serious diseases," Bristol-Myers Squibb Chairman and CEO Giovanni Caforio said in a press release.

    The boards of directors of both companies approved the deal. The combined company will have nine products with more than $1 billion in annual sales and significant potential for growth in oncology, immunology and inflammation and cardiovascular disease.

    Celgene was set to lose patent protection by 2022 for Revlimid, its top-selling multiple myeloma drug. Early last year, Celgene agreed to to buy the rest of Juno Therapeutics it didn't already own for about $9 billion in cash to gain access to Juno's pipeline of cancer drugs.

    The company has been working on an experimental new gene therapy called CAR T-cell therapy — taking a patient's own immune cells, called T cells, genetically manipulating them to attack specific proteins on cancer, and infusing them back into the patient.

    submitted by /u/closingbell
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    r/investing portfolio going into the new year

    Posted: 02 Jan 2019 03:16 PM PST

    I'm back with an update on our results from the underrated stocks survey we did back in October 2018. For those who don't remember or weren't around at the time, I conducted a survey and asked the r/investing community to submit stocks they believed were underrated and consistent winners. I took the top 20 companies (by number of upvotes) and built a portfolio in Investopedia.

    Here's a link to the original survey.

    Here's a link to the results of that survey.

    And here is where we stand now!

    Here is the corporate action history.

    On October 1st 2018 the S&P closed at $2,924.59. It's currently at $2,510.03. Not accounting for dividends or interest that's a 14.17% drop. Our portfolio has experienced a 15.9% drop including dividends and interest.

    Our best performer is ENPH.

    Our worst performer is SQ.

    Those are both according to their stock price only. I have not read their reports and I don't know how their businesses faired in 2018.

    submitted by /u/Mr_Suzan
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    Biggest Swings in Net Worth in 2018 (Bloomberg Billionaires Index)

    Posted: 02 Jan 2019 07:00 PM PST

    Largest positive changes to net worth

    Jeff Bezos (Amazon): +$24 billion

    Lei Jun (Xiaomi): +$8.6 billion

    Colin Huang (Pinduoduo): +$6.9 billion

    Largest negative changes to net worth

    Georg Schaeffler (Schaeffler Group): -$13.6 billion

    Amancio Ortega (Zara): -$16.6 billion

    Mark Zuckerberg: -$19.9 billion

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-31/here-are-the-world-s-biggest-billionaire-winners-losers-of-2018

    FYI: Those latter two on the largest positive has just took their companies public while Bezos has been taking public scrutiny in the past two decades.

    submitted by /u/markyu007
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    Dividend, Growth or Blend? What's better now and for the long term investor?

    Posted: 03 Jan 2019 04:10 AM PST

    So isn't it true that dividend stocks tend to do better in times of recessions and also, more importantly, they have performed better than growth and the market over time?

    Please let me know if I have any information wrong about this, but wouldn't that mean if someone was building a portfolio right now, it would be wise to have focused on entirely dividend stocks, (as well as some gold/bonds and real estate)?

    If you were building a diversified portfolio now, would you build one with entirely high dividend paying stocks, or is it better to go with a generic ultra aggressive portfolio for someone that plans on investing the next 20 years?

    submitted by /u/fobreezee
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    Daily advice thread. All questions about your personal situation should be asked here

    Posted: 03 Jan 2019 04:04 AM PST

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or anything similar. There is no single answer to this question, but we will also need A LOT MORE information if we are to give some sort of answer

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive girlfriend? (not really an asset)
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
    [link] [comments]

    How will other tech stocks fare in the wake of Apple's guidance warning?

    Posted: 02 Jan 2019 02:18 PM PST

    Apple is getting smoked after hours because of their Q1 guidance warning with revenues falling significantly below estimates.

    Anyone have a list of stocks tied to Apple that may see a similar fate? What about non related tech stocks like QCOM, NVDA, AMD? Will those get hammered? Seems like Apple's disappointing guidance could have market wide ramifications.

    submitted by /u/bannerview
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    Vti question

    Posted: 03 Jan 2019 03:57 AM PST

    Why is vti so Apple heavy? I know it is only 2.7% but that's still a lot. Does that impact any of your decisions to hold vti?

    submitted by /u/lemongrenade
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    Maplestory/DomiNations Publisher Nexon to be Sold Off

    Posted: 03 Jan 2019 04:38 AM PST

    Owner Kim Jung-ju seeks to sell off 98.64% holding in parent company NXC Corp. Potential buyers likely foreign Tencent or EA, but theoretically could be domestic publishers (Nexon is largest, though Netmarble isn't too far behind). It's been reported Jung-ju said he feels worn down from increased regulations and a prolonged legal incident claiming corruption from which he was found innocent (the company itself denies this reasoning for sale but has not yet officially announced). Nexon Co., Ltd (publicly traded subsidiary of holding company) is up ~10% pre-market in OTC markets as of post (underlying traded on TYO which hasn't been open since 12/28 due to a long bank holiday).

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nexon-sale/nexon-founder-to-sell-controlling-stake-in-gaming-companys-holding-firm-report-idUSKCN1OX010

    https://kotaku.com/south-koreas-biggest-gaming-giant-is-suddenly-up-for-sa-1831453903

    submitted by /u/amy31415
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    Your personal method for stock price target projections

    Posted: 03 Jan 2019 04:35 AM PST

    In case this comes off a bit crude and uneducated, I'm a college student majoring in investing so bear with my ignorance here. I noticed there are a bunch of ways to project price targets for equities. I wanna know which strategies have worked best for you and any tips you have for a young investor just starting to get into the water

    submitted by /u/iFunnyGopher
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    25-30 year timeline.

    Posted: 03 Jan 2019 04:32 AM PST

    Like the title says, that's how much time I plan on having before I would need any investment money. I'm currently 100% in a low cost s&p 500 index fund. Covers a lot and very low fees. Makes life easy for me. No rebalancing or worrying about anything really. Anyone else do this?

    submitted by /u/CL300driver
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    BRK.B Intrinsic Value via Owners Earnings. What am I doing wrong?

    Posted: 02 Jan 2019 11:01 AM PST

    I recently read F Wall Street, and the Warren Buffet Way. I am trying to emulate the calcs they have. My spreadsheet has seemed fairly reasonable for a handful of companies (INTC, COST, APPL, MSFT), but when I try to calculate BRK.B, it appears to be insanely undervalued.

    Here's my methodology (everything is in millions):

    1. Historical Owners Earnings. Grabbing these from Macrotrends. Just inputting these as I see them. Taking the last 3 year average for cap ex. Summing everything except non-averaged cap-ex for owners earnings. I'm getting around a 24% Growth rate. https://i.imgur.com/G0tJmya.png

    2. Estimate PV of future cash flows. I'm using 20, then going down to 5 for the next 8 years. Seems somewhat conservative, since we're getting around 24% in the stop above. https://i.imgur.com/W6I7UJN.png

    3. Intrinsic value and margin of safety. Discounting future cash flows (just using 2% growth), and 8% for our opportunity cost (pic says T-Bill, even though I know it's a lot lower atm). Add our future cash flows forever at 2% to our 8 year look at 24-5. We get about $2,90,730. https://i.imgur.com/fYbaQp1.png

    Berkshire's current market cap is about $500,000 (275B A shares + 222B B Shares). My number is WAY off, Berkshire is very undervalued, by 340%! That seems way too high to be real, but I just can't figure out what I'm screwing up here.

    submitted by /u/TheDWP
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    It's time for a revival of JD.com

    Posted: 02 Jan 2019 12:06 PM PST

    I think it's time to revive the forgotten JD.com after its 50%+ drop from its all time high. JD.com is one of the largest online retailers in China while also having it's own huge logistics network allowing it to provide upto same day delivery making it better in some ways than competitors such as AliExpress. The main risks associated with JD.com are the rape scandal, which has now been set aside, and the trade war. Most of JD.com sales are in Asia hence the main issue with the trade war would be a slowdown in economic growth and hence less consumer purchases in China. Aside from this, JD.com has a lot of room to grow, with it even trying to reduce its loss leaders in order to improve profit margins.
     
    JD.com has also announced a $1 billion stock buyback which will be rolled out this year in addition to a restructuring that should hopefully stabilize the company, making it more efficient. The stock price is near its all time low despite the company being in a much better position than 5 years ago; this is especially exemplified by its partnerships and cooperation with large US firms such as Google, Walmart and Intel which are intended to create a more automated shopping experience while enhancing the internet of things.
     
    TLDR: Long JD

    submitted by /u/Chimp_Casino
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    Apple guidance revised downward. Q1 Expected Revenue $84B est. vs. $91.3B est.

    Posted: 02 Jan 2019 01:39 PM PST

    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190102005610/en/

    Tim Cook points to worse than expected revenue from mainland China as one of the main reasons.

    Trading was halted before the announcement.

    submitted by /u/FromBayToBurg
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    Any one here with an advisor holding any DFA mutual Funds? Why or why not?

    Posted: 02 Jan 2019 10:50 PM PST

    I realize biggest why not is because they seem to only sell to large advisor firms.

    There seems to be a lot of debate comparing them to vanguard. These articles, forum topics largely showing in my searches are from early 2010s and before

    Not much recent discussion about DFA recently yet they still seem quite large and with the much larger-than-vanguard fees. (Certainly not on reddit....). Fees aside they seem not far behind vanguard in face performance

    Given larger fees what is attracting people to DFA in more recent days?

    submitted by /u/msiekkinen
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    Is it possible?

    Posted: 02 Jan 2019 10:19 PM PST

    And would you do it?

    Opting out of Social Security. If you put the same amount of money into a conservative investment which yields a return of even .05% . You would have more than what your standard pay into the system would return.

    What's everyone's thoughts?

    submitted by /u/Brapp2Smokin
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    VGRO vs VOO/SPY/SPYG

    Posted: 02 Jan 2019 04:14 PM PST

    This may be more directed towards Canadians

    I see a lot of people recommending to just put whole investment into VGRO. But then people say that s&p historically will give better returns. What's benefit of choosing VGRO instead of VOO? Or would it be good to have a mix of the 2?

    And second question is regarding s&p etf- there's so many to choose. How to pick which is best? I'm looking at VOO vs SPY vs SPYG primarily

    Input & advice appreciated! Thanks and Happy New Year!

    submitted by /u/FirstThoughtWrong
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