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    Wednesday, January 30, 2019

    Financial Independence Algorithm I used to set my 3.25% SWR (from a retired guy)

    Financial Independence Algorithm I used to set my 3.25% SWR (from a retired guy)


    Algorithm I used to set my 3.25% SWR (from a retired guy)

    Posted: 30 Jan 2019 09:36 AM PST

    The 4% rule-of-thumb is a great starting point for setting a SWR for someone retiring at a traditional retirement age. But as many people in the community have stated, it makes less sense if you're planning for an extended retirement.

    Here's how I've calculated my SWR:

    1. Start at 3%
    2. For each 5% you're willing to lower your spending when your portfolio falls below it's original value, increase your SWR by 0.25%
    3. Take into account current valuations based on CAPE ratio
      -- CAPE >30: subtract 0.25%
      -- 25<CAPE<30: leave alone
      -- 20<CAPE<25: add 0.25%
      -- CAPE<20: add 0.5%
    4. Accounting for willingness and ability to return to work for an extended period if necessary
      --Very unwilling: leave alone
      -- Reluctantly willing: add 0.25%
      -- Very willing: add 0.5%
    5. If you are very risk averse, subtract 0.25% so you sleep better at night

    Reasoning:

    submitted by /u/jason_for_prez
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    Does anyone actually know what they’re talking about?

    Posted: 29 Jan 2019 07:04 PM PST

    Do investment account managers at banks, Merrill Lynch, etc know what they're talking about or do they all go through a course to just sell their investment products? Is there a professional out there that I can say hi, this is why I have, these are my goals, tell me what to do. Like a rain man of investing😏 I feel like every time I speak with one of these guys they kinda all have the same "bucket " narrative. Am I speaking to the wrong professionals?

    submitted by /u/hrogers99_
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    Spending flexibility (reductions when portfolio is down) makes the "4% rule" withdrawal rate even more robust

    Posted: 29 Jan 2019 09:50 PM PST

    I ran a relatively simple spending flexibility scenario using my Rich, Broke or Dead early retirement calculator. This is a new feature I just added. It works like this: if you portfolio goes below your inflation-adjusted starting balance, your spending is reduced by your specified amount (e.g. 5%). If your portfolio goes back above that threshold, spending returns to normal (adjusted for inflation).

    Images to accompany the bullets below *https://imgur.com/a/NMI5Bf1 *

    Adding spending flexibility to your early retirement plans increases your chance of success because you aren't withdrawing as much when your portfolio is low.

    • With 0% spending flexibility and a 4% withdrawal rate, there's a 5% chance of being broke after 30 years (this is basically the Trinity study and standard 4% rule) and 24% chance after 50 years.
    • With 5% spending flexibility and a 4% withdrawal rate (your spending is reduced by 5% in years that your portfolio value is lower than your starting point), there's now a 1% chance of being broke after 30 years and 17% chance after 50 years
    • Changing that to 10% spending flexibility (your spending will be reduced by 10% in years that your portfolio value is lower than your starting point), there's now a 0% chance of being broke after 30 years and 12% chance after 50 years
    • Changing that to 15% spending flexibility (your spending will be reduced by 15% in years that your portfolio value is lower than your starting point), there's now a 0% chance of being broke after 30 years and 4% chance after 50 years. (It's helpful to view the series of images in the link above)

    Remember that the 4% rule is already pretty conservative (95+% success for a 30 year period) so adding flexibility in the form of reduced spending or part-time income in the case of poor market returns can greatly increase your chances of making it through a very long retirement.

    And I've ignored the longevity/death part of this calculator but looking at the giant death wedge makes the 4% rule with or without the spending flexibility seem like a pretty decent rule to follow.

    submitted by /u/EngagingData
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    Reading The 4-Hour Workweek and don't know if I'm wasting my time

    Posted: 30 Jan 2019 09:03 AM PST

    So far, the premace seems to be against delay of gratification and targeting a sustainable FI number. I feel like this book is misleading on many fronts. However, I'm only a few chapters in. Can someone vouch for this book or am I wasting my time?

    submitted by /u/PeriwinkleDohts
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    Has anyone postponed their pursuit of FIRE to follow of a passion?

    Posted: 30 Jan 2019 07:40 AM PST

    Nobody wants to spend 40 working years doing something they dislike. However, I don't want to spend 15 years doing it either, but Im not sure what choice I have.

    Im a young (22) guy working in tech making a decent salary and I expect to FIRE in about 15 years at this rate. However, I can't help but think I should just pursue what makes me happy now, rather than grinding for 15 years first.

    I very much enjoyed college. I thirst for knowledge. I loved going to classes, reading textbook, learning new material and the social aspect. If I was FI now, I would enroll in a master's program tomorrow and probably another after the first is completed.

    Outside of academics, I'd also love to pursue traveling/backpacking the world. I backpacked Europe for 2 months and I've never felt so fufilled.

    What's stopping me is that I know doing that would set me back years on my FIRE journey. Im also aware that the dollars I earn now are much more valuable than the dollars I'll be earning years from now due to the nature of compounding.

    So, should I build the life I want now, then save for it, or just keep saving until I'm free?

    Anyone have a similar experience of dealing with this dichodomy? Do you postpone FIRE to pursue something else? Are you happy with that decision?

    submitted by /u/UnknownEssence
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    Daily FI discussion thread - January 30, 2019

    Posted: 30 Jan 2019 03:08 AM PST

    Please use this thread to have discussions which you don't feel warrant a new post to the sub. While the Rules for posting questions on the basics of personal finance/investing topics are relaxed a little bit here, the rules against memes/spam/self-promotion/excessive rudeness/politics still apply!

    Have a look at the FAQ for this subreddit before posting to see if your question is frequently asked.

    Since this post does tend to get busy, consider sorting the comments by "new" (instead of "best" or "top") to see the newest posts.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Would you take this new job paying more to meet FIRE earlier?

    Posted: 30 Jan 2019 12:00 PM PST

    I am currently 30 with a small family and our household income is ~$120k a year. I contribute $80k of this and I have a new opportunity to earn $110-120k a year ($30-40k more a year).

    My current profession is consulting and configuring... let's say Apples. In this new opportunity, I would be doing very similar work, but more focus on configuring (not consulting which I love the most) and instead of Apples, it would be on Oranges. My day to day should be similar, but with this new role a bit more travel and bit more work day in day out.

    My concerns are that starting over at a new employer is riskier in the economy/if downtimes hit than staying where I am at (8+ years with my current employer). Would you or would you not take this new opportunity for the extra income to move my FIRE date from 12 years down to 8 years?

    Notes: I, of course, used fruit to be generic, but this is a real opportunity and I have not yet calculated my new FIRE date to the 'T', but just ballparked it for the moment.

    submitted by /u/svote
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    30 yo, 200k net worth. Worried since I am not doing any other investing outside of 401k/Roth IRA. I feel like I'm doing it all wrong.

    Posted: 30 Jan 2019 03:27 PM PST

    I've always been a natural saver, but also someone who is very risk averse. Didn't know much about finance except saving money in a bank account. I've been in the workforce for 6 years. 3 of those years have had a salary range of $70k-100k, with me recently getting a job at $100k.

    The last year and a half has also seen me start maxing out my 401k. Before that I was just doing up to the match, not knowing any better. After consolidating my retirement accounts and moving everything into either a PreTax 401k or Roth IRA, Here is what I have:

    - 100k in a 2 year CD making 2.5% a year. I am 1 year into this.

    - 66k sitting in a regular savings account, constantly growing because I save a lot per month.

    - about ~20k in 401k

    ~ 25k in a Roth IRA

    I still feel like I'm doing it wrong. I keep reading on here that I should be dumping money into index funds every waking minute it seems. My parents have also been very risk averse their whole life, and always advocate for CD's but I know those don't really give much.

    I personally don't really know what I am going to use the money for honestly. I originally thought a house but given where I am in life on a personal level, I don't really even know where I want to live, if I even want to continue living where I currently am, etc.

    I feel like I have an opportunity to be able to retire way earlier than most people, but I feel like without using the stock market, that won't happen.

    For those wondering how I got to this financial level. Many years of living with parents and saving every penny. Fortunate that parents helped with paying off student loans. And probably most importantly, being extremely introverted, almost hermit like with a non existent social life and enjoying small hobbies at home rather than going out. Don't really have many friends, no SO, so not much opportunity to spend money by going out a lot.

    Basically if I continue down the path I am on, early retirement will not be a possibility. Is that a correct assumption to make?

    submitted by /u/financeq6345
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    Weekly Self-Promotion Thread - January 30, 2019

    Posted: 30 Jan 2019 03:08 AM PST

    Self-promotion (ie posting about projects/businesses that you operate and can profit from) is typically a practice that is discouraged in /r/financialindependence, and these posts are removed through moderation. This is a thread where those rules do not apply. However, please do not post referral links in this thread.

    Use this thread to talk about your blog, talk about your business, ask for feedback, etc. If the self-promotion starts to leak outside of this thread, we will once again return to a time where 100% of self-promotion posts are banned. Please use this space wisely.

    Link-only posts will be removed. Put some effort into it.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    How safe is an early 30's retirement with a 3% annual withdrawal rate?

    Posted: 30 Jan 2019 02:54 PM PST

    The FAQ states that 4% is good for a 30 year retirement, which I'm looking to adjust given the following new information:

    1. I'm in my early 30s, so my retirement may last 50+ years.
    2. The 4% figure is based on the Trinity Study, which covered a period of exceptionally good market returns. Many financial experts, John Bogle for example, expect forward market returns to be substantially lower, especially after the last 10 years' bull run.

    I'm wondering if 3% is a safe withdrawal rate for a 50+ years retirement. If so, why do you think that? If not, what would you consider a safe withdrawal rate, and why?

    submitted by /u/CautiousInvestor
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    Advice on finding a CPA with 'retire early' expertise?

    Posted: 30 Jan 2019 06:24 AM PST

    Has anyone had success finding a CPA that understands things like backdoor roths and other tactics that serve the FIRE mindset? I have been through two in the last two years, found through yelp and google reviews. No luck from my IRL network.

    Where did you look and what questions did you ask before you made your decision on who to work with?

    submitted by /u/locationstation2295
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    Question about "Early Retirement Extreme"

    Posted: 30 Jan 2019 12:29 PM PST

    I saw another post where someone was asking if they were wasting their time reading "the 4 hour work week" and I have the same question about "Early Retirement Extreme."

    I a few chapters in on Early Retirement extreme and I feel like I am wasting my time. So far there is not much substance and just the author's feelings and views of society. I agree with a lot of it, but I didn't want to read a theoretical book, but something that shows actions or steps that I can do to help me along my path to FIRE.

    I understand that mindset is important, and I have heard several people recommend this book. I figured it would be similar to "your money or your life" where it would have specific action steps that can be worked on. Instead, what I have read reminds me of "Millionaire Next Door" but instead of surveys or actual data, the book is just what the author thinks. I also do not care for the author's writing style and run on sentences.

    Does it get better? or is it just the same for the whole book?

    submitted by /u/Sharknado81
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    Being happy in FI is not retiring FROM a job you hate, it's retiring TO something meaningful, challenging, and exciting

    Posted: 30 Jan 2019 10:14 AM PST

    If you hate your job and think FI will solve that, think again. FI will make you happy when you retire TO something vs just from something.

    submitted by /u/zapproximator
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