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    Friday, October 26, 2018

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Friday - Oct 26, 2018

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Friday - Oct 26, 2018


    r/Stocks Daily Discussion Friday - Oct 26, 2018

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 04:07 AM PDT

    These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday and Friday's will stay up till Monday.

    Some helpful links:

    If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

    Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky. or see past portfolio discussions with this link.

    See past daily discussions here. And use this link to see past stock options discussions here.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Not actively investing, portfolio getting crushed.

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 03:33 AM PDT

    Hi Guys,

    Its a shame to say that I am down ~16% all time (starting from August, 2017), especially in the bull market that has been going for quite some time. It wasn't always like this--for a majority of the time that I've been investing I've had pretty solid returns. I made some investments that I now regret (specifically MU @52), and being in college now, I have been almost too busy to keep up with my portfolio. I am now at a point where I've suffered through some pretty tough losses and I am not sure what steps to take going forward. I don't know whether to sell for a loss, or hold longer term and break even (hopefully).

    My current portfolio consists of the following:

    • MU-32.41% of portfolio (down 32%)
    • MSFT-33.26% of portfolio (up 6%)
    • FB-13.83% of portfolio (down 18%)
    • AAPL-13.63% of portfolio (up 16%)
    • SGMO-6.87% of portfolio (down 26%)

    As you can see, I've made some questionable decisions. My rationale for my losers was I believed MU was undervalued in its industry (before the China tariffs and other bad news) based on various factors, I thought that FB would bounce after the unpleasant earnings report in August, and I have followed SGMO for quite awhile and have confidence in what they do although they haven't had great news recently. I have been stubborn with not selling for a loss but I can't sit and hopelessly watch some of my holdings continue to fall. Hindsight is 20/20, had I known to buy more AAPL or MSFT I would've but I can't change that. I want to transition into some ETFs (SPY, QQQ, VTI, etc.) in order to limit my exposure to volatility and risk. As I mentioned, I am wondering whether to sell out of some of my positions or keep holding. I will then change into less risky holdings. Thank you!

    tl;dr: Made bad investment decisions with some stocks; have not been tracking my holdings as frequently as I should have lately. Need to know whether I should hold or sell for a hefty loss. Current holdings listed above.

    submitted by /u/cjm225
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    Stocks dropping following disappointing earnings from Amazon and Alphabet

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 05:19 AM PDT

    US Stocks

    • Global stocks are dropping this morning following disappointing results from Amazon.com (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOG.L) and negative earnings guidance from European large-cap stocks
    • US stocks index futures are declining and are pointing to a sharp decline to the start of trading in US stocks with the Dow Jones minis –0.81%, S&P500 minis –1.03% and Nasdaq 100 minis –2.01%
    • Global stocks have lost close to USD$6.7tn in market value since September as escalating trade tensions and higher interest rates have dampened investor sentiment
    • 3Q US GDP estimates will be released at 8:30am and will afftect outlook for future interest rate increases
    • The VIX is moving up this morning and is currently at 27.18 after closing at 24.22 yesterday
    • HYG November 16 & January 2019 OTM Puits, VXX November 16 OTM Puts, SPY October 26 & November 16 OTM Puts, and GDX November 16 OTM Calls are the most heavily traded options contracts in US pre-market trading
    • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -3.56 basis points to 3.0811%
    • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.08 basis points to 0.27%
    • WTI Crude is currently up 0.84% to USD$67.33/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread down USD$-1.54 to USD$8.28/bbl
    • Gold is currently up 0.36% to USD$1236.59/oz
    • European stocks are dropping this morning following disappointing earnings results from US large-cap tech stocks and negative FY guidance from large-cap European stocks
    • European oil stocks are trading at their lowest level since April 2018 as global oil prices head for its third straight weekly decline

    Stocks Trending in the News

    • Amazon (AMZN) reports C3Q EPS of USD$5.75 vs Street estimates of USD$3.11. While earnings blew out estimates, revenues came in weaker than expected at USD$56.5bn vs. a forecast of USD$57.1bn. Amazon is rated "Attractive" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Top Buy" in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Autoliv (ALV) reports interim C3Q sales slightly below market expectations. Autoliv sees FY CY2018 operating margin at 10.5% vs. previous guidance of 11.0%. Autoliv is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Cabot Oil (COG) reports C3Q earnings which came in light vs. Consensus on weaker than expected revenues for the quarter. Cabot Oil boosts its quarterly dividend 17%. Cabot Oil is rated "Neutral" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • China Life (SEHK:2628) was downgraded at CICC after reportings worse than expected C3Q results. CICC cut profit forecasts by 40% for CY2018 and CY2019 earnings and cut their price target for China Life to HKD$23. China Life is rated "Neutral" in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Electrolux (OM: ELUX B) is tumbling this morning after reports C3Q results which miss Consensus expectations as higher raw materials costs continue to pinch operating profitability. North American sales were further hit on market-share losses to private label brands following bankruptcy of Sears (SHLD). Elextrolux is rated "Neutral" in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Fujitsu Ltd (TSE:6702) reports F2Q earnings which miss market estimates. Earnings for the quarter were negatively impaired by costs associated with restructuring following the sales of its PC business to Lenovo (SEHK:992). Fujitsu management sees operating margin reach 10% by FY2022. Fujitsu is rated "Neutral" in our Japan Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Google (GOOG.L) reports C3Q EPS of USD$13.06 vs. Consensus of USD$10.40. While earnings blew out estimates, Google's revenues, ex TAC, came in slightly below expectations at USD$27.2bn. Google average cost-per-click for C3Q dropped 28%. Google is rated "Neutral" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Attractive" in our US Info Tech Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Intel Corp (INTC) reports C3Q EPS that beat Street estimates as a surprise jump in PC demand boosted revenues for Intel chips. Revenues from Intel's PC-focused business grew 16% Y/Y. Intel is the second large semiconductor maker in the world and its positive earnings should provide a boost to semiconductor stocks and the SOXX ETF. Intel is rated "Neutral" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Top Buy" in our US Info Tech Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Microsoft (MSFT) reports F1Q results which top estimates, though capex came in 4.8% below expectations. Microsoft's beat was driven by its cloud computing unit as revenue from Azure cloud computing services jumped 76% Y/Y. Microsoft is rated "Neutral" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Neutral" in our US Info Tech Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • SEB SA (ENXTPA:SK) cut its FY CY2018 profit growth outlook on continued impact from FX volatility and weak retail sales (on account of disruption from eCommerce boom). SEB sees FY CY2018 sales growth of ~8%. SEB is rated "Attractive" in our European SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Sunny Optical (SEHK:2382) was downgraded to "Hold" at Jefferies with a price target of HKD$65. Sunny Optical is rated "Unattractive" in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Valeo (ENXTPA:FR) is plunging in early morning trading following C3Q results which miss market expectations. A slowdown in the China market and new rules on emissions testing hit Valeo results harder than management expected. Valeo cuts its target FY CY2018 guidance to 6.2%-6.5%. Valeo is rated "Neutral" in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
    • Western Digital (WDC) reports FY1Q2018 EPS of $3.04, matching consensus EPS of $3.04. While top-line revenue was on par with consensus estimates, Western Digital's top-line revenue fell short of expectations as management reported FY1Q2018 revenue of $5bn compared to consensus of $5.14bn. Highlighting the earnings release was Western Digital's surveillance hard drive sales and embedded flash solution revenue, both of which grew more than 30% y/y. Western Digital is rated "Attractive" in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas and "Neutral" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.

    European Stocks

    • European stocks are dropping this morning following the disappointing earnings results from US large-cap tech stocks and negative FY guidance from large-cap European stocks
    • European oil stocks are trading at their lowest level since April 2018 as global oil prices head for its third straight weekly decline
    • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently down -1.53%, the FTSE 100 has declined -1.64%, the DAX has fallen -2.05%, and the CAC 40 is lower by -2.34%
    • Investor sentiment for European stocks is negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 0.11x
    • Travel & Leisure (-0.36%), Food & Beverage (-0.48%), and Utilities (-0.84%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
    • Oil & Gas (-2.85%), Automobiles & Parts (-2.45%), and Technology (-2.33%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
    • 9 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 272 stocks are at 4-week lows
    • 4 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 146 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
    • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is moving up this morning and is currently at 24.85 after closing at 20.76 yesterday

    Asian Stocks

    • Asian stocks dropped in overnight trading following disappointing results from US Tech behemoths Amazon.com (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOG.L)
    • YTD, Chinese stocks have lost closed to USD$3tn in market value and are on pace for the worst annual performance since CY2008 as the Chinese government's focus on deleveraging combined with rising global trade tensions to spook investor sentiment
    • The Nikkei 225 finished down --0.4%, the Hang Seng ended down -1.11%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise declined -1.16%, and the CSI 300 was -0.65%
    • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 0.79x
    • 0 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 187 stocks reached 4-week lows
    • 0 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 70 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
    • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 0.47x
    • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 24 stocks reached 4-week lows
    • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 6 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
    • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -0.4 basis points to 0.113%
    • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.8 basis points to 0.23%
    • JPY¥ is currently down -0.463% against the USD$ to 111.9
    submitted by /u/QuantalyticsResearch
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    $TCEHY

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 11:25 AM PDT

    Is it too early to start rounding up all the Tencent I can afford? I really do believe in this company and I know China has growth concerns but they literally have their hand in everything. Curious if anyone else feels similarly, or if they feel the opposite..please tell me why

    submitted by /u/liamheff1216
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    Do you guys think that AMD will go byond 30 in the next few years, or will it just hover from 20-25

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 08:31 AM PDT

    I bought a couple hundred dollars of shares as my first investment at 31. Was wondering if I will ever make anything on it.

    submitted by /u/Swagnoor
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    Day Traders: Who's Been Making a Killing?

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 10:24 AM PDT

    With all of the volatility lately, it seems like the kind of thing day traders dream about. Just curious, who has been making a killing off of this (and how much)?

    I've been playing it safe, staying the course, and not trying to time the market which has rewarded me with a little over a 13% loss over the last month 🤔 Granted I'm sure it could be worse.

    submitted by /u/akkruse
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    Semiconductor stocks - understand the cycle. MU, NVDA, TXN, AMAT, SOX

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 12:09 PM PDT

    I though I would write a short post for some of the youngins here who have never experienced a real correction or know what a market cycle is.

    1. The overall stock market is in correction mode now. That is pretty clear. How far it goes I dont know. Is this the start of a bear market i dont know either but I do know that if you look at times when the S&P 500 stays under the 200 day moving average, you need to be careful
    2. Specifically regarding semiconductor stocks, they are cyclical stocks and you have to know the rules to play by. When I see people saying buy MU bc its cheap I just laugh. Its always cheap at the top, thats how cyclical stocks work. While I do think MU is actually cheap based on their assets and LT potiential, looking at current or even foretasted earnings is not the right way. you need to understand that with cyclical stocks, you buy when things go from bad to good and you sell when things go from good to bad. For months there have been signs that the semi cycle is topping out. Suppliers like LAM and AMAT topped out a while ago as demand is slowing. And then you had KLAC at a conference a few weeks ago talking about order growth slowing and then TXN finally confirmed that we are in a semi slowdown. Why? Well basically the market was so tight the past 12 months that everyone double ordered, and the Book/Bill for the entire industry was around 2. Clearly there actually wasnt the amount of demand but suppliers had run out of stock so ppl want to make sure they got their orders. Now we also have a slowdown from China (some ppl front ran the tarrifs ) and autos are slowing big time. Look BWA and all the auto parts companies. You also had huge hyper scaler data center build-outs the past 2 years, which messed up the market. DRAM prices were rising for over a year. Thats not normal, prices usually always go down. Why bc MSFT , GOOGL and others wanted to catch up to AWS. They will keep spending but I would expect the market to be more prepared now.

    The good thing about the semi cycle nowadays is that there is a lot more demand than just PC's or smartphones. So eventually it will come back. And IMO we are probably half way through it already. Asian semi's and suppliers got the message a long time ago. Look to them for the first signs of a bottom.

    Happy trading

    submitted by /u/abeecrombie
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    Thoughts on upcoming NINTENDO earnings report?

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 08:52 AM PDT

    Nintendo stock has been bleeding red these past weeks. It hit a new 52 week low today in the US ($NTDOY).

    Any bagholders? What do you think about the upcoming earnings report on Tuesday Oct 30th? Last earnings Nintendo beat due to stronger than expected software sales. Will we see another beat? Also concerned about switch hardware sales and their forecast of hitting 20 million switch units sold this fiscal year.

    submitted by /u/idkbae
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    Interesting article discussing a hot-topic Drug and Company making headlines

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 12:29 PM PDT

    Looks like a lot more ACRX insiders have bought and held recently compared to those who bought and then sold. For those of you unfamiliar with acrx they developed a new powerful synthetic opioid Sufentanil. DSUVIA is the pill form contained within an under the tongue applicator for use in medically supervised settings and is up for FDA Approval. It was approved for marketing in the EU in June. This article breaks down the recent insider activity and proposes DSUVIA has blockbuster potential. What do you think? Is DSUVIA over hyped ? Personally I'm compelled by the strong interest in the product by the DOD.

    https://msmoneymoves.com/2018/10/18/two-acrx-insiders-sold-for-massive-gains-shareholders-turn-is-next/

    submitted by /u/Sultan26
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    Is there a historical database that shows the biggest movers by day?

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 02:08 PM PDT

    Working on a project for an Investment Management class and I'm working on a paper involving the top movers of the day (up and down). On WSJ.com they show you like the top 10 gainers and losers for the day, but is there a public database that keeps track of this historically? Or even like a list of all S&P 500 stocks sorted by percent increase/decrease?

    submitted by /u/SpeedportBlack
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    What stock earnings reports that I need to watch out soon?

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 01:42 PM PDT

    Pls give me a list so I can enjoy the ride...8'

    submitted by /u/markjacobs2538
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    Which stock would you recommend on this dip?

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 07:18 AM PDT

    Have some $ to invest, was wondering which stocks is worth buying soon, and perhaps why? Would prefer TSX canadian stocks but open to US as well.

    Thanks!

    submitted by /u/Kamika1337
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    What are you planning to buy today\next week?

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 05:46 AM PDT

    Hi Guys,

    With correction territory looming over the S&P500, what are you looking to pick up today or are you gonna wait til next week and ride the trend?

    submitted by /u/PapiMatthews
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    Is Apple starting to rot again?

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 02:46 PM PDT

    In the days of AOL and Dell, there were times to take profit and get out. This is why I decided to stay away from Apple stock and not buy Apple devices or services.

    I believe millions of Apple device users have given up trying to access Apple services. A discussion at Apple indicates that about 64,000 people have the same problem with a "server error" that prevented them from signing up for the Apple ID required for use of Apple services. Because they can't log in to vote without Apple ID, I believe millions of Apple device users can't use Apple services.

    I noticed no growth in Apple stores. The few existing Apple stores I found are clustered in only the largest metro areas. I wouldn't be willing to drive hundreds of miles to go to an Apple store. Costco still doesn't have iPhones.

    Steve Jobs wanted a device that works. I guess without Steve Jobs, Apple is no better than the rest. The current talk from Apple about 'Our Own Information Is Being Weaponized' once fooled me into thinking Apple is on our side. Apple ID user agreements look much like the other's. The price of Apple devices is much more expensive than others. I plan for my next mobile phone to be an Android, and I cancelled plans to buy a MacBook Pro.

    submitted by /u/Throwaway_up_in2_sky
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    FB Rebound??

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 01:54 PM PDT

    After seeing how both twitter and Snapchat beat their eps for the quarter, do you think it's now more likely to expect Facebook to do the same? The stock is near a 52 week low and I know people are hating on FAANG lately, but considering how low the P/E ratio is on Facebook and how other social media sights turned out this quarter, I feel like it might not be a bad time to grab some shares before 10/30 when they announce earnings. But maybe I'm reading it wrong.. Thoughts?

    submitted by /u/nthompson30
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    Advice apprecieted about the basics of stocks and on my current situation.

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 01:21 PM PDT

    Hi I am a total beginner when it comes to investing, however i don't let that scare me from doing it.

    So i have 4 stocks which i have invested with 10500 sek each (invested early oct). These investments are longterm, 5+ years and i do plan to futher add a sum of money to them each month.

    At this point i'm negative on every stock, -3%, -4% and 2 of them are -8%. Should i still add money as planned or should i wait. Or even withraw all of what is left. Should i be worried regarding the sudden drop, is it just my stock?

    If i should add a sum of money should i distribute it equally or should I put it on the ones that has gone down the moast?

    (I'm not that familiar with the englsih terms, but when i say stock i mean alot of stock i one stock, if that makes sense. In sweden we say "fond".)

    submitted by /u/yuhan88
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    Different apps/websites show different prices

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 12:52 PM PDT

    So i'm new to trading stocks and I thought the best way to get my foot in the door would be paper money. I was checking AMD just now and saw 2 different prices. Investopedia and ThinkorSwim says it's at 17.5 while Best Brokers app says it's at 15.56. All 3 sites/apps state they update the prices in real time so i'm not sure why there is a difference in price?

    submitted by /u/Im-Indian
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    NVDA vs DIS

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 12:17 PM PDT

    I have 150 shares in Disney I bought a few years ago around $75 a share. While I have made around $4-5k in increased value not counting dividends I have been eyeing selling the DIS stock to buy into NVDA. I would rather sell DIS when the price rebounds but at this point NVDA is at a 52 week low and I fear if I don't pull the trigger now I will miss the boat and NVDA will go back up. Anybody got any advise on sticking with DIS or waiting to sell or pulling the trigger and making the move?

    submitted by /u/MysterManager
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    Market today

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 06:13 AM PDT

    Hoping for tech to dump and bio to jump. Any predictions? Been waiting for vstm to turn around, nearly the same mc as they have cash lmao. Rsi super oversold too. Anyone got some others they're liking?

    submitted by /u/ZionMiller
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    Looking for feedback

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 06:11 AM PDT

    Hi everyone! We're trying to peak the youngsters interest in the market and hopefully provide some education and guidance. Im curious to see if anyone has feedback for us on this latest piece? how I tripled my first investments

    submitted by /u/ZionMiller
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    Are Leveraged ETFs exempt from Pattern Day Trading Rules?

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 11:32 AM PDT

    It's something I've not been able to google and discover a yes/no answer for. I've gotten mixed results from my search.

    Are Leveraged 3X ETFs, exempt from the pattern day-trading rules/limits?
    My trade app's PDT detector doesn't seen to recognize them as day trades.

    submitted by /u/NavalLacrosse
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    Portfolio advice. Transition into different stocks?

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 07:35 AM PDT

    Hello. I am down 18% and reaching new low every week. I started "playing this game" in the worst moment when all stocks were at their highest. Invested $10k and down $2k. I hope most of it is going to recover over years but it makes me pretty anxious anyway I know that best would be to buy the dip and lower my average but I don't have more money to invest here...I've sold few stocks with a loss and invested in some pennies but ended up with a 0 profit.

    What I have is:

    40 MU @ 49.60 ...
    22 AMD @ 25.85 ....
    16 TNDM @ 40.63
    16 CRON @12.42
    12 MSFT @ 108.30
    10 SFIX @ 32.42
    8 IQ @ 30.60
    6 ATVI @ 70.70
    6 MRVL @ 21.12
    6 MJ @ 44.38
    4 INTC @ 45.08
    4 LASR @ 30.51
    4 FB @ 174.89
    4 PYPL @ 83.87
    4 V @ 137.80
    4 BABA @ 169.33
    4 CMCSA @ 37.43
    2 SQ @ 65.00
    2 DIS @ 113.52
    2 VOO @ 258.29
    2 CPRT @ 53.70
    2 EA @ 100.16
    500 LODE @ 0.2502

    Every single stock is red. Which of those should I get rid of now?

    submitted by /u/magnes44
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    TSLA. Will it keep going up?

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 11:17 AM PDT

    Tesla has been the only one in green these past couple of days. Do you guys think this will continue or will it join the sea of red along with everything else.

    submitted by /u/Periodicowner123
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    Any software or script to scan and find best stocks for swing trade?

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 07:24 AM PDT

    Hi,

    I usually use TradingView or Finviz to scan for stocks based on their MACD, RSI, SMA, Volume, Cap, etc. to find potential stocks for purchase. Then I check their daily candle charts one by one on Yahoo Finance to see those indicators on chart and estimate risk to rewards. Also, I check 4 hours, 1 hour, 15 minutes and 5 minutes charts to see if it's a good entry point. It takes too much time.

    I was thinking about creating a script to do all these tasks periodically and list the stocks with an estimation on target price and stop-loss price, so I can sort them based on the risk/reward ratio. Then I take a look at the chart on Yahoo to make final decision.

    Do you guys have or aware of such a tool?

    submitted by /u/hosshams
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    Will “safe haven” pharma hold up?

    Posted: 26 Oct 2018 11:09 AM PDT

    Stan druckenmiller noted in a recent interview that pharma was unusually strong starting mid July, for no reason at all. Look at Pfizer, PFE, up 50% July to September on basically no news. Pharma sector still holding up strong despite all the volatility, down far less than market.

    I've been thinking people are turning to it as a safe haven from tariffs and market turmoil. But if this gets bad enough people are gonna sell everything, including pharma stocks. Curious for peoples thoughts.

    submitted by /u/jackandjillonthehill
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