Micron Chip Sales Temporarily Banned in China Investing |
- Micron Chip Sales Temporarily Banned in China
- Predictive Analysis of the Yield Curve
- So how simple is fundamental analysis, really?
- Tesla employee tells Business Insider Tesla didn't produce all 5000 Model 3s in last week. Tesla SEC filing is fraudulent
- Anavex (AVXL) initiates phase 2b/3 after phase 2a indicates +30% effectivness in stopping/curing Alzheimer's.
- PSA for those unversed in "trade wars"
- Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) has been performing poorly in 2018 - Why?
- What non-Vanguard ETFs are you invested in?
- 40 Well-Known Stocks Goldman Sachs Thinks are Bad Investments
- ETF Diversified Portfolio for the long term
- Personal Loans Surge to a Record High
- Warren Buffett on trade from a 2003 article reprinted in 2016: Squanderville vs. Thriftville
- $HABT Habit Burger
- How can I go long bankruptcy?
- Simply Wall Street- My Thoughts, Your Experiences?
- Are there any serious Bitcoin/USD binary option brokers?
- Fidelity Funds - FXAIX vs. Target date Funds vs. Other Funds
- VOO for EU citizens on Interactive Brokers
- Daily advice thread. All questions about your personal situation should be asked here
- Take adv. Of Mu while price is dipping?
| Micron Chip Sales Temporarily Banned in China Posted: 03 Jul 2018 09:44 AM PDT How long do you think "temporarily" means in this case? Any thoughts on the long term impact of this decision? [link] [comments]  |
| Predictive Analysis of the Yield Curve Posted: 03 Jul 2018 07:30 PM PDT I usually follow the yield curve fairly closely (10 Year T-note minus the 2 Year T-note) as it is usually a good predictor for recessions. Utilizing regression models, seasonal fluctuation models, MA(200), and one of my most trusted models that I usually keep the p-value close to 95.6% on with a 2-4% error rate which doesn't seem to matter much now that the yield curve is .299. When a yield curve goes flat or negative traditionally a recession follows between 6 months and two years afterwards. My models put the yield curve going flat or negative around mid November which should place the US economy entering into a recession between May 2019 and November 2020. With 2008 being a result of the banking industry utilizing Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) and multi tiered CDOs I fear the next recession will be due to the renamed CDO the Bespoke Tranche Obligations (BTOs) and particularly the Commercial Real Estate (CRE) BTOs. CRE BTOs are filled with multi family housing loans. Unlike a CDO where you can easily monitor the default ratios of the underlying mortgages you cannot monitor the economic issues in a CRE BTO because when rents are high it is easy for the multi family housing manager to replace tenants with other tenants unlike a mortgage. So in light of that I fear that we will be more deeply in the muck when the bubble bursts because it is currently impossible to detect actually economic issues in the CRE CDOs and that puts me placing the actual next recession taking place in the summer of 2020. Has anyone else done any estimation/predictive work around any other fundamentals that either I can use to contradict my stance? I try to be as robust as possible so I welcome any insights or cooperative information. [link] [comments]  |
| So how simple is fundamental analysis, really? Posted: 03 Jul 2018 04:21 AM PDT Believe me when I say that I'm trying to make this as simple as possible because investing is complicated already. If I'm looking at a company's book value (shareholder equity) and I'm trying to see if it's bigger than the current market cap, do I just literally look at one and then look at the other to see the difference? Do I have to crank out an equation to see if one equals the other or is it as simple as just keeping your eyes a little bit more open? Yes, trying to figure how exactly how much a security is undervalued or overvalued is the goal. And none of the analytical work can really be backchecked (you really have to trust what you know and that's a problem when you have zero background in this stuff and zero business experience at all), but how much simpler can you really make this without losing something substantial in the analytical process? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Jul 2018 07:58 AM PDT https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DhL_ocjXkAA_9BQ.jpg:large Link to whole article - http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-elon-musk-orders-engineers-to-stop-brake-and-roll-testing-2018-6 Tesla SEC filing - https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/413747557299126287/463716791856791553/Screen_Shot_2018-07-03_at_10.44.51_AM.png?width=1921&height=152 Tesla specifically said 5K Model 3s in last week to pump the stock in the filing, which i think is fraud. There was an intention to decieve analysts and shareholders and pump the stock and cause a short squeeze. Everyone was looking at their Model3 production numbers, so they manipulated it by including cars from previous weeks. See their SEC filing [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Jul 2018 05:43 PM PDT Anavex Life Sciences Receives Approval To Initiate Phase 2b/3 Clinical Trial of ANAVEX®2-73 for the Treatment of Early Alzheimer's Disease. +40% in stock price, + more after hours. Potential price point of $100/share on early approval. [link] [comments]  |
| PSA for those unversed in "trade wars" Posted: 03 Jul 2018 10:45 AM PDT China is a great example but other countries operate the same way.
This is HOW China "negotiates" Expect to see MANY seemingly unrelated "issues" for any US Company trying to do business in China. [link] [comments]  |
| Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) has been performing poorly in 2018 - Why? Posted: 03 Jul 2018 12:06 PM PDT I currently have most of my money tied up in VTI (total market fund) and was thinking about diversifying a bit into other funds. I've been following BRK for a bit, and have noticed it performing particularly poorly compared to most mutual funds right now. When the market peaked in late January 2018, VTI peaked at $146.87 and BRK.B peaked at $217.62. VTI is now at $186.02 and VTI is at $140.41. So BRK.B has fallen 14.52% since its all-time high 4 months ago, while VTI has fallen 4.39% from its ATH 4 months ago. VTI is also up 2.30% over the past 12 months while BRK.B has returned -6.15% over the past 12 months. I'm just wondering what others thoughts are on this. Obviously BRK.B's goal isn't to mirror the S&P 500, but over 10% lower returns than the market over 4 months seems pretty substantial and must have a reason behind it. My first thought was the Wells Fargo controversy but that's been going on far more than 4 months. [link] [comments]  |
| What non-Vanguard ETFs are you invested in? Posted: 03 Jul 2018 06:36 PM PDT Next month, Vanguard will allow trades in non-Vanguard ETFs. What non-Vanguard ETFs are better than Vanguard's offerings that are worth considering? [link] [comments]  |
| 40 Well-Known Stocks Goldman Sachs Thinks are Bad Investments Posted: 03 Jul 2018 03:23 PM PDT They are basically suggesting now is the time to lock in gains on stocks that have done well and rotate to undervalued/ poor-performing stocks. What do you all think are good choices/sectors to rotate into though? Most seem fairly overvalued already… [link] [comments]  |
| ETF Diversified Portfolio for the long term Posted: 03 Jul 2018 06:41 AM PDT Hi, I came across this article about an ETF diversified portfolio for the long term. I wanted to get everyone's input on it and if there would be anything that you recommend to change. https://www.forbes.com/sites/baldwin/2016/12/26/the-superdiversified-10-fund-portfolio/#3fcd53da5297 Here is the allocation: Total Stock Market (VTI) 11%Total Bond Market (BND) 9%REIT Index (VNQ) 6%Global ex-U.S. Real Estate Index (VNQI) 4%FTSE All-World ex-U.S. (VEU) 17%FTSE Emerging Markets (VWO) 14%SPDR Bloomberg Barclays International Treasury (BWX) 13%VanEck Vectors J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond (EMLC) 10%PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) 5%iShares Gold Trust (IAU) 11% Edit: I want to plan a 20 year portfolio. If this portfolio plan isn't good for that then I will scrap it because I haven't started yet. So far I am getting great input. Thanks! [link] [comments]  |
| Personal Loans Surge to a Record High Posted: 03 Jul 2018 07:59 AM PDT |
| Warren Buffett on trade from a 2003 article reprinted in 2016: Squanderville vs. Thriftville Posted: 03 Jul 2018 04:36 AM PDT |
| Posted: 03 Jul 2018 09:50 PM PDT Im long HABT here in this range that its trying to break out of. I like all the fundamentals (but for the recent same store sales data) but the revenue growth, revenue to market cap, opening lots of new locations, and I like where they choose to open, kinda the opposite of SHAK, Anyone else have a fundamental or technical opinion either long or short? Thx [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Jul 2018 09:37 PM PDT I'm expecting the bankruptcy rates of small business and corporates to spike in the next few years. My question is how can I get exposure to the bankruptcy industry? My first thought was bankruptcy law firms, but since these tend to be LPs, there aren't public shares available. My next thought was banks that specialize in corporate restructuring. But these stocks are all diversified. I'm not really willing to attempt to hedge out my exposure to the wider banking industry in my personal account, to isolate the restructuring business of just a few single names. I think that - with corporate defaults as low as they have been - these companies are now lean and ready for higher growth when the tides turn. I'm hoping that this would be a solid counter-cyclical play that (at this point in the cycle) would return positive but below market returns if the market performs well, and outsized positive returns if the market performs poorly. Does anyone have suggestions on how I can get exposure? Is there a group of parent companies that are invested in these industries that I'm not thinking of? Ideally I'd like to diversify rather than go for a couple single names but I'm willing to look at those as well. I'm looking for a play that's as pure as possible. [link] [comments]  |
| Simply Wall Street- My Thoughts, Your Experiences? Posted: 03 Jul 2018 07:23 AM PDT I was doing some research into a company (I work as an investment analyst) and stumbles across an article that cited this website, Simply Wall Street's, intrinsic value for the stock. Interested, I clicked on it and saw they thought it was 88% overvalued! This was a Chinese growth stock, I was surprised. I made an account so I could see their assumptions and saw that it used a 3% perpetual growth rate, which was ridiculous. I then just decided to move on because they were obviously just using a general financial model to value every stock. However, a week later, I just got an email from someone who worked for the company asking why I didn't sign up and to give them "brutal honesty" regarding feedback. This is what I said: "Good Morning, Thanks for reaching out! I appreciate the opportunity to give some feedback and I love that you and Simply Wall Street are interested in hearing it. Honestly, I had doubts about your methodology after reading the report on Baozun (a small-cap e-commerce platform in China). I was trying to figure out why your website thought it was so overvalued. After looking into the raw data I realized that you were only using a 2-stage growth model and that your perpetual growth rate was only 3%, the US 10-year bond rate. Those assumptions felt pretty silly for a company that has been rapidly growing (>50%), is expected to continue the growth over the near-term, and operates exclusively in China. You also didn't mention anything about the recent business transition, and it seemed like your "model" was based on historical margins, instead of projecting how this transition will change the business over time. Seemed pretty obvious why those assumptions would return a price that was lower than the market. In fact, I then decided to compare it to some other companies in China (iQiYi, Bilibili) and the US (Apple, Shopify) on your platform. It seems that no matter where the company is in its life-cycle, where the company is located, or what the company does you will run a 2-stage FCFE model that uses the US 10-year bond rate and have absolutely no methodology for deciding where to get/how to calculate your unlevered beta. In fact, IQ, BZUN, and SHOP all had the same beta and the same cost of equity! You also apparently limit any company's beta (including high-growth companies) to a "practical range" for a stable firm. In the name of brutal honesty, I'll tell you that it seems like you are plugging in tickers into a pre-built DCF and then posting the output. It seems like all you are doing is compiling data in a visually appealing manner and trying to get people to pay for it. Hope that feedback is useful to you and your company moving forward." The more I think about it, the more upset I become. Maybe they are genuinely trying to provide valuable information to new investors, but the more digging I do into their "valuation" it feels like they aren't putting the time into valuing these companies properly and are taking advantage of investors who may not know the difference of when to do a 2-stage FCFE model versus 3-stage or 1-stage or FCF vs FCFE. If I wanted to put this stock into a pre-made DCF I'd just download one for free off the internet and get an equally inaccurate result. I can't speak to their other metrics, which I imagine are sourced from Capital IQ and are likely more accurate than the valuation. However, many investors will just see the valuation says "under" or "over" valued and make decisions based off their flawed methodology. This is probably a weird hill to die on, but after that email I've had most of the morning to stew over it. Does anyone here use and pay for their services? How do you feel about their valuation methodology? Do you use it or just make your own DCF? [link] [comments]  |
| Are there any serious Bitcoin/USD binary option brokers? Posted: 03 Jul 2018 11:34 PM PDT I am looking for a broker to trade Bitcoin/USD binary options. So far, I have found highlow.net, but they seem to ban people who use trading bots. whaleclub.co might have been good once, but there have been issues lately. binary.com and iqoption.com do not offer cryptocurrency binary options. Does anyone know of a good broker? If there is none, are there any alternative financial instruments which I could have a look at? I want to make as much profit as possible from a correct prediction but be able to limit the loss. [link] [comments]  |
| Fidelity Funds - FXAIX vs. Target date Funds vs. Other Funds Posted: 03 Jul 2018 07:25 PM PDT Excuse my ignorance since I am still new, but I did some research today and just wanted to get people's thoughts. I currently have 10K sitting in my Fidelity Traditional IRA account, I'm 31, goals are to save up for retirement but would like to save up for a down payment for a house too. It seems like the consensus is to go with either:
My criteria has been mostly looking at the lowest/cheapest expense ratio and I found Fidelity 500 Index Fund - Institutional Premium class (FXAIX) (0.015% Exp ratio). The average annual returns looked similar, but this doesn't have a minimum to invest like the others mentioned.
[link] [comments]  |
| VOO for EU citizens on Interactive Brokers Posted: 03 Jul 2018 07:55 AM PDT I'm a EU citizen. Just got the following error trying to buy some VOO on IB:
I'm just wondering if anyone else got it? I suppose this means IB jumped on the missing KID bandwagon and thus cut most US domiciled ETFs? Or hopefully there's just an issue with my account? If IB did cut off US domiciled ETFs for EU citizens: - did you find any news about Vanguard supplying KIDs for their ETFs? I wasn't able to dig anything - does anyone have a good alternative to VOO that's available to EU citizens? Preferably USD denominated as that's what my savings are in [link] [comments]  |
| Daily advice thread. All questions about your personal situation should be asked here Posted: 03 Jul 2018 05:05 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or anything similar. There is no single answer to this question, but we will also need A LOT MORE information if we are to give some sort of answer
Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| Take adv. Of Mu while price is dipping? Posted: 03 Jul 2018 06:20 PM PDT Would it be a good idea to buy some MU in light of a reduced price, due to china's announcement on the temp ban for MU chip sales? [link] [comments]  |
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