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    Home Unlabelled Stock Market - Gary Cohn to Resign as Trump’s Top Economic Adviser [xpost from /r/investing]

    Stock Market - Gary Cohn to Resign as Trump’s Top Economic Adviser [xpost from /r/investing]

    March 06, 2018

    Stock Market - Gary Cohn to Resign as Trump’s Top Economic Adviser [xpost from /r/investing]

    Gary Cohn to Resign as Trump’s Top Economic Adviser [xpost from /r/investing]

    Posted: 06 Mar 2018 04:17 PM PST

    Happy 9-year Anniversary to the Bull Market today! (on an intraday basis)

    Posted: 06 Mar 2018 04:17 AM PST

    Interest Rates vs. S&P500

    Posted: 06 Mar 2018 07:49 PM PST

    Recently, investors have been fearful of rising interest rates. Intuitive thinking says there should be an inverse relationship between changes in the 10-year treasury yield and the price changes of the S&P500. Putting intuitive thinking aside, what does the data actually show? To answer this question we charted the data in 3 ways in order to see what trends were displayed. The 3 charts include:

     Long-term Trends (S&P500 ROR vs. Delta 10-Year Treasury) - Chart 1  Medium-term Trends (S&P500 ROR vs. Delta 10-Year Treasury) - Chart 2  Monthly Trends (S&P500 ROR vs. Delta 10-Year Treasury) - Chart 3

    First, let's look at Chart 1 which depicts 1 period of long-term rising interest rates (1940 to 1982) and 1 period of long-term falling interest rates (1982 to 2009):

    (SEE CHART 1)

    From this chart, it can be seen that from 1940 to 1982 the annual compounding rate for the 10-YR Treasury rate was bounded between +4.97% and +5.61% (average = +5.29%). The corresponding annual rate-of-return of the price appreciation for the S&P500 Index was bounded between +5.76% and +6.77% (average = +6.27%). From this chart, it can also be seen that from 1982 to 2009 the annual compounding rate for the 10-YR Teasury rate was bounded between -4.17% and -4.45% (average = -4.31%). The corresponding annual rate-of-return of the price appreciation for the S&P500 Index was bounded between +7.52% and +8.69% (average = +8.11%). Please note that this chart ignores the Dot-com bubble pricing. Taking the average trend information we get the following equation:

    Annualized S&P500 ROR = 7.28% - 0.1917 x Annual Compounding Rate 10-YR Treasury Yield

    Though this equation does support the negative correlation assumption, the influence is relatively weak. The effect of interest rates on the long-term annualized S&P500 ROR was only +/-1%. On average, the S&P500 price appreciation should be negative when the 10-YR Treasury rate compounds faster than 38% per year.

    Examples: Initial yield = 2% Max Yield by Year-end = 1.38 x 2% = 2.76%

    Initial yield = 10% Max Yield by Year-end = 1.38 x 10% = 13.8%

    Second, let's look at Chart 2 which depicts 20 periods of shorter-term rising interest rates and 20 periods of shorter-term falling interest rates between 1950 and 2017. Periods ranged in duration from 3 months to 4 years.

    (SEE CHART 2)

    From this chart and the 40 data points, we get the following equation:

    Annualized S&P500 ROR = 11.52% + 0.3805 x Delta 10-YR (per year), R2 = 0.0017

    This equation actually supports a weak positive correlation between the annual S&P500 rate-of-return and the rate of change in the 10-Year Treasury yield. However, the low end of the ROR trend-line is 10.4% and the upper end of the trend-line is 12.8% (+/-1.2%).

    Third, let's look at Chart 3 which depicts approximately 1000 monthy data points form 1932 to 2018. The data points are plotted as Price change for the S&P500 vs. rate-of-change in the 10-Year Treasury.

    (SEE CHART 3)

    From this chart and the approximately 1000 data points, we get the following equation:

    Monthly S&P500 ROR = 0.69% - 1.2723 x Delta 10-YR (per month), R2 = 0.0050

    This equation supports a weak negative correlation between the monthly S&P500 rate-of-return and the monthly rate of change in the 10-Year Treasury yield. The average 10YR Treasury yield during the 86-year analysis period was 5.05%. On average, the monthly S&P500 price appreciation should be negative when the 10-YR Treasury yield rises faster than 10.7% of the average yield per month (0.54% for the study period).

    Examples: Initial yield = 2.5% Max Yield by Month-end = 1.107 x 2.5% = 2.77%

    Initial yield = 10% Max Yield by Month-end = 1.107 x 10% = 11.1%

    Conclusions: Long-term or large data set analyses of the S&P500 vs. 10-YR Treasury indicate the following:

    1. Over the long-term, there is a weak negative correlation between interest rates changes and the annual price appreciation of the S&P500 Index.

    2. Monthly compounding of the 10-YR Treasury yield rate by more than 10% may coincide with a downturn in the S&P500 Index.

    3. Annual compounding of the 10-YR Treasury yield rate by more than 38% may coincide with a downturn in the S&P500 Index.

    Charts can be viewed on https://dividendtotalreturn.net/rising-interest-rates/

    submitted by /u/DTRS_Investing
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    Best S&P 500 index funds?

    Posted: 06 Mar 2018 10:47 AM PST

    What are some of the best S&P 500 index funds to invest in?

    submitted by /u/theofficialorange
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    The r/StockMarket Portfolio Challenge

    Posted: 06 Mar 2018 06:18 AM PST

    Hello /r/StockMarket

    For the past couple months the mods and I have been working together to migrate the weekly stock picking competition, hosted by /u/bigbear0083 , onto Tiingo.

    We're ready to go live!

    To sign-up and compete in the stock-picking portfolio challenge, visit: https://www.tiingo.com/p/games/details/r_stockmarket.html

    Then you can

    1. Sign up for Tiingo
    2. Enter your Reddit username - you will then be PM'd an auth code from "Tiingo-Bot"
    3. Many of you have reached out asking me for trading hiring advice, so I reached out to a friend who places recent grads and students at hedge funds & trading firms. My friend and I created a system that, with your permission, can measure your portfolio and meta analytics on Tiingo then use that to find candidates to place at funds. I've done this before in the past successfully, and my friend specializes in this. This is optional.
    4. Join game! Then you can visit: https://www.tiingo.com/p to trade You can also click on usernames on the "Leaderboard" tab to see other r/StockMarket member positions

    Here are the instructions in imgur album format: https://imgur.com/a/E0v9A

    Please let us know if you have any questions. Look forward to seeing everyone! And there may be a small prize at the end of the game!

    submitted by /u/WittilyFun
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    Should I sell VGW at a loss?

    Posted: 06 Mar 2018 11:38 AM PST

    I've bought 250 shares in Valens Grow Works at 2.29 a share recently I don't know what brought me to this decision but it's only been down since. Should I sell at a loss or does this stock have a good chance to bounce back up to where I can sell at book value?

    submitted by /u/jdoubled01
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    Portfolio Shift - Thoughts?

    Posted: 06 Mar 2018 05:19 PM PST

    This represents about 1/8th of my portfolio. I am thinking of liquidating my APTV, COP and PLAY stock and buying NVDA, CHDN, NFLX. If there's any left over maybe I'll dump it in more BPMX(which is 6% of my porfolio ATM) Thoughts? NFLX*

    submitted by /u/Shadowban89
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    Netflix is March-ing to $400.00

    Posted: 06 Mar 2018 07:57 AM PST

    On March 2, Netflix hit an new all time high of $301.00 beating it price target of $300.00 with a market capitalization of $130 Billion and four days later the company is at $324.00 a new high with a market cap of $140 Billion with a new price target of $400.00 thanks to the International streaming division projected to reach 230 million subscribers by 2024. And with that, Netflix could end the year with a market cap of $215 Billion, and $600 Billion in 2024. Netflix is March-ing on to be the largest entertainment company in history ever!

    Note: Apple acquisition rumors also a bit of an help

    Link: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/analyst-increases-netflix-international-subscriber-expectations-ups-price-target-to-400-2018-03-06

    submitted by /u/snack-fu-bling
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    Other than good/bad news what cause share price to change

    Posted: 06 Mar 2018 11:35 AM PST

    I watch certain shares and see prices go up and down. Some small but some big. Even on days there really isn't any news or big announcements for the company the stocks will just pop up. What exactly is causing things like this to happen?

    submitted by /u/WintersDawn184
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    Interesting Article: Where Are Biotech Industry Vets Taking a Seat at the Table Right Now?

    Posted: 06 Mar 2018 11:17 AM PST

    Bunch of pretty big swinging biotech guys are legit heading over to a small cap company. Decent pipeline of therapies just not sure how to connect the dots with the price at $2. Longer term hold for a buyout? Either way....added to my watch list

    https://www.gurufocus.com/news/648893/where-are-biotech-industry-vets-taking-a-seat-at-the-table-right-now

    submitted by /u/jameson62
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    $SQ - Square Capital Update for 2018

    Posted: 06 Mar 2018 02:16 PM PST

    Hello! /u/lykosen11 here!

    While I am full up in my own studies, I haven't had time to finish the write-up I am currently working on, for Mastercard Inc (Ticker: $MA). However, one of my favorite companies, under quite a bit of reddit hype released their annual 10K. I just wanted to get my thoughts on the company as of today 06-03-2018 (eu date).

    Square inc 10K
    Square gave a great year, both in stock performance and business performance. The later is the only one that matters if you already own the stock, as it should. The year over year performance have no effect on you as a shareholder, unless you plan to buy additional shares. We see Square being up 7% after it's jump, a bit after their annual report. So, what did the annual report tell us? Well, to start up the EPS beat expectations by a cent, ending up at $0.08 adjusted. This number is what new people usually look at, however it's meaning is close to nothing. Earnings, while always being great, is not how square is evaluated as a growth company. Growth is. That is why my eyes falls on the fantastic numbers of 96% growth in subscriber volume, which is a 12% percentage point increase over last quarter. Increasing growth is what will put Squares evaluation where we shareholders want it to be. The general revenue growth beat estimates slightly, at 36%. The subscriber revenue is extremely good for Square, as it has been shown to be a very reliable long term revenue stream method to employ.

    The only concerning bit is a slight lowering of margins, as well as a non-exciting (while strong) guidance for Q1 2018. The guidance puts their revenue at around $2.87 billion, and $245 million adjusted EBITDA, which is very strong. The most worrying part there is the loss of margin expectations for the coming quarter. There might be a silver lining here, as the loss of margin comes a majority from a hefty increase in R&D investments, which was raised quarter to quarter from 17% growth y/y to 43% y/y. If you trust in CEO Jack Dorsey and other R&D executives, the investments might pay off in competitive product down the line.

    Thoughts
    All in all, the quarter was strong. Many other companies would relish to have such fantastic growth results. However, Square is expected to have so and while this was perfectly great, it's no smoking gun for the business path to progress. That said, my model hints that it would make extremely good sense mathematically if they performed better revenue-wise than their guidance predicts, as their growth number would have to abruptly drop for the revenue to not beat $2.9 billion. They know more than I do, however this makes me believe that the risk of failure is lower than many bears would like to believe.

    Evaluation
    My current fair evaluation puts $SQ at $52, however, it takes very little additional growth and improvement of margin to put them as high as $66. It's simply now known, and the stock evaluation could easily skyrocket if it would maintain growth in any business portion, before turning it's operating costs into true profitability. I don't have a set price target, as I plan to hold $SQ indefinitely. It is currently 7% of my portfolio, as I sold off the huge position I used to hold before it reached my price target ($50.16 estimated 3 months ago). It seems like I missed out on profit $SQ, however if I wanted that exposure I would exercise the use of options instead of holding such a vast, riskful large portfolio %.

    Advice Anyone who is holding Square, don't expect incredible growth this year in Square, without also not only expecting excellent business results, but excellent results compared to Squares already very strong results. I would buy SQ here, as the company is not overvalued in my eyes, but fairly so. However, I would only buy it to hold for at least 3-5 years, it will no longer be as valuable short term purchase which I do not advocate for in either way, no matter the equity.

    /u/lykosen11

    Previous post: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/7djzkb/sq_a_model_analysis_summary/

    submitted by /u/lykosen11
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    $I

    Posted: 06 Mar 2018 01:59 PM PST

    nyse:i has a dividend yield of nearly 60%. How is this possible?

    submitted by /u/InstitutionalizedRat
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    Where to find short interest data?

    Posted: 06 Mar 2018 01:28 PM PST

    I've been gathering historical data on stocks for a Python program I'm writing using Yahoo! Finance, however, Yahoo! only has the stock's open, high, low, close, and volume available under the historical data tab. I'm trying to find a website/resource that allows you to view the short interest on a daily basis for the past year or so.

    If anyone has any ideas as to where I should look for this data, please let me know, thanks!

    submitted by /u/RElliott10
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    Options for dummies ie. Me

    Posted: 06 Mar 2018 01:28 PM PST

    I was just approved for options on Robinhood and could use some info.

    I understand they're used to secure a buy/sell of a stock at a contract price but no obligation to do either.

    1. I don't understand why they're better than limit orders or stop losses.

    2. Can I get put options or call options on stocks I don't own?

    3. Can I sell back put/call options I purchase before the expiration date?

    4. If I can sell my options, what determines if my options gain/lose value?

    I think that's it. Anything else I should know, feel free to tell me!

    submitted by /u/SmilingAnus
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    Quantamize Morning Quant Ride 3/6 - Global Market Recap & Conviction Trading Ideas

    Posted: 06 Mar 2018 05:59 AM PST

    Asian & Australia Equities Recap

    Asian markets closed up across the board with declining concerns about a global trade war and speculation that North Korea is willing to give up its nuclear program. The Nikkei and Topix were up 1.79% and 1.27% respectively with energy, tech and utilities stocks outperforming. While all sectors were up, telecom, financials and real estate were the largest underperformers. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated that the 2% inflation target is a top priority for the Bank of Japan. This may allay investor concerns about a deceleration in the quantitative easing policy pursued by the BOJ.

    Hong Kong and Chinese markets closed up with the Hang Seng +2.09%, Hang Seng China Enterprise Index +2.67% and the CSI 300 +1.12%. All sectors were positive with tech, energy and financials stocks the largest outperformers while consumer staples, financials and real estate stocks were the biggest laggards.

    In the Land Down Under, Aussie stocks were up in sympathy with Chinese and Japanese equities. The ASX finished +1.14% with telecom, utilities and energy stocks the largest outperformers. Consumer staples, financials and real estate stocks with the biggest underperformers. Retail sales for January were below consensus at 0.1% m/m vs. consensus 0.4%. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave its policy rate unchanged.

    European Equities Recap

    European equities are up across the board with the Euro Stoxx 600 +0.57%. Regional indices are also positive with the FTSE 100 +1.14%, DAX +1.00% and the CAC 40 +0.71%. Autos & Parts, materials and insurance stocks are the largest outperformers with real estate, media and food & beverage stocks the biggest underperformers. Germany February PMI was reported to be 52.7 vs. 59.8 for January. Germany Retail PMI for February was reported as 53.8 vs. 53.0 for January. Italian equities are rebounding this morning following yesterday's sell-off after the mixed results from Italian parliamentary elections. If today's rally holds, Italian equities will close above last Friday's close.

    Rates & Commodities Recap

    US government bond yields are rallying with the yield on the 10-year back to 2.90%. 2-year fixed swaps rates are now imply a rate of 2.53%. The US Dollar index is down 0.44% with weakness against most major G7 currencies. In spite of the mixed Italian parliamentary elections, the EUR€ is up 0.73% this week. The strength in AUD$ is surprising given the the RBA's decision to hold rates unchanged. While interest rate differentials favor the USD$, the AUD$ appears to be trading on speculation about capital flows. As a result, given Aussie exposure to capital flows related to industrial and base metals, we would expect the AUD$ to trade on speculation about potential for more tariffs. While the USD$ is weak in aggregate this AM, commodity prices are up across the board. WTI is now currently well above USD$63/barrel. We continue to reiterate our play on US E&Ps:

    SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) Bull Call Spread

    Precious metals are up across the board, even in the face of a weaker JPY¥. Does this suggest that investors are hedging the recent bounce back from concerns about a global trade war? We continue to favor our two Gold-related options trades as hedges for long-only portfolios:

    VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Bull Call Spread

    SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) Bull Call Spread

    Cryptocurrencies Recap

    Major cryptocurrencies are down across the board. Ripple is now down over 11% after trading up yesterday on speculation that Coinbase is posed to add the cryptocurrency to its suite of cryptocurrencies. Coinbase has denied this is under consideration. Two of Japan's major cryptocurrency organizations will merge and form a self-regulating body: Japan Cryptocurrency Business Association (JCBA) and Japan Blockchain Association (JBA) will be merging in the wake of deepening discussions about stronger regulations. Zhang Ye, head of the technology unit at China's Securities Regulatory Commission suggests Blockchain technology will need centralization. While he believes in the potential of blockchain, he suggests it needs to rely on a centralized infrastructure.

    US Markets Pre-Market Preview & Recap

    US equities are pointing to a positive open in NY again. The VIX is currently trading below 18.0. Implied volatility continues to mean-revert downwards for S&P 500, Russell 2000 and Nasdaq index options. However, while overall implied volatility is coming down, Skew on S&P 500, Russell 2000 and Nasdaq options remains rich. This "implies" investors are buying puts, but not at the same rate as they were last week.

    US equity markets rallied again yesterday, with the S&P 500 +1.10%, Russell 2000 +0.84%, and the Nasdaq +1.00%. All sectors of the S&P 500 were higher, with Utilities, Financials, and Real Estate the biggest outperformers, while Healthcare, Tech, and Consumer Staples were the biggest underperformers. Market breadth was positive for the second day in a row with advances outpacing declines; the put-call ratio supports this sentiment as calling buying outpaced put buying on the S&P500.

    XL Group Ltd (XL), CF Industries Holdings (CF), and Everest Re Group (RE) were the biggest gainers in the S&P 500 yesterday, while Marriott International (MAR), JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), and Nordstrom Inc. (JWN) were the biggest laggards. Clearside Biomedical (CLSD) and Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI) were two of the most notable gainers on the Russell 2000, while Dermira Inc. (DERM) and Sparton Corp. (SPA) were two notable laggards. Micron Technology (MU) and Incyte (INCY) were the biggest positive movers in the Nasdaq, while Marriott International (MAR) and JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) were the biggest negative movers.

    Source - https://www.quantamize.com/morning-quant-ride-mar-6-18/

    submitted by /u/QuantalyticsResearch
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    Stock Market Blog Idea

    Posted: 06 Mar 2018 10:43 AM PST

    What about a blog called The bpmX Files

    All BPMX, all the time!

    submitted by /u/Shadowban89
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    What do people think of ACOPF?

    Posted: 06 Mar 2018 09:53 AM PST

    It's had a pretty good run for me but I'm wondering how long it can keep it up.

    http://www.morningstar.com/stocks/PINX/ACOPF/quote.html

    submitted by /u/loveskoalas
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    Value investors, if you buy when the PE is less than 20 and P/B is less than 1.5 when do you sell? When do you stop adding? I am a ready buyer but a hesitant seller, help.

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 09:56 PM PST

    Capital Link Is Not Worried Over Trump's Tough Trade Talk

    Posted: 06 Mar 2018 06:01 AM PST
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