The new tax bill will cause the overall real estate market to drop Investing |
- The new tax bill will cause the overall real estate market to drop
- How many shares do you buy?
- The new tax bill will cause the real estate market to rise.
- Would you buy AAPL at current valuations?
- What are some companies in simple industries that you thoroughly understand the business economics of?
- Daily advice thread. All questions about your personal situation should be asked here
- How do you break down your allocations?
- How will the tax bill affect REITs?
- Etherium investing?
- Pass through business to lower personal taxes?
- Why are MLPs getting destroyed recently?
- Opinion on current economic state
- ETF portfolio
- Why does some stocks not pay dividends? Why would I buy these?
- Opportunities in the December Lean Hogs Contract
- Tax question on capital gains in the US
- 3 years horizon: 13pct tax reimbursement or tax free gains?
- How much upside in SP 500 on Monday? Any guesses?
- [META] Micro AMA thread
- F Score Calculation Exercise
- Full Expensing In The Tax Bill?
- Beginner, I need your help
- Corporate Tax Rate to Lower Gold Price
| The new tax bill will cause the overall real estate market to drop Posted: 02 Dec 2017 11:37 AM PST My logic is summarized in these 3 points:
The impact to REITs, in my opinion, is what will cause the rest of the country's housing market to drop. Removal of SALT deductions will really only (heavily) impact areas that have high housing prices and/or high property tax rates. For a house worth 500k and a property tax rate of 0.6% to 1% (edit: California property tax rate, which is lower than the average national rate), buyers are looking at an added cost of up to REITs on the other hand have been heavily maimed. These companies are effectively not taxed at all if they give away over 90% of their profits. So a reduction in the corporate tax rate just elevates the rest of the industry while leaving REITs in the dust. REITs buy up lots of property and I think we'll be seeing a reduction in REIT expansion and a subsequent stagnation in profits. Perhaps even a decline in the long-term. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 02 Dec 2017 09:33 PM PST Maybe a better question is what is the average amount of shares someone needs to make a decent profit? I mean I see people say things like buy AMZN, GOOGL, etc. but unless you've got like $50k to throw at one company (about 48 shares for the aforementioned companies) is it worth it to buy just a few shares of companies like that? [link] [comments]  |
| The new tax bill will cause the real estate market to rise. Posted: 02 Dec 2017 08:34 PM PST The other thread on this sub is filled with misinformation, and led to a very wrong conclusion on the potential impact of the new tax bill.
Now getting two major misconceptions corrected, it leads to my somewhat incredulous sounding prediction: home values will go up, especially in high tax, high property value areas such as CA and NY. The reason for that is now with the elimination of SALT deduction and most other personal deductions, home ownership is one of the few ways to get preferential tax treatment from the federal government. A combination of potential rental income, property tax deduction, mortgage interest deduction and the elimination of SALT deduction will make home ownership very appealing for high income owners in some areas. Additionally, the new rule of owner only gets tax exemption if they live in a place for 5 years instead of 2, will actually hurt supply in the short term since some people will try to hold onto their place for a bit longer, despite healthy value gain. This will drive supply even lower in supply-limited markets like SF Bay Area. [link] [comments]  |
| Would you buy AAPL at current valuations? Posted: 02 Dec 2017 08:38 AM PST |
| Posted: 02 Dec 2017 07:57 PM PST Hi all, I am looking to dive into public companies that have a business model that is relatively simple to understand. What is your favorite company right now that you thoroughly understand the economics of? [link] [comments]  |
| Daily advice thread. All questions about your personal situation should be asked here Posted: 03 Dec 2017 04:05 AM PST If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or anything similar. There is no single answer to this question, but we will also need A LOT MORE information if we are to give some sort of answer
Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| How do you break down your allocations? Posted: 03 Dec 2017 03:48 AM PST With all the talk of the need to diversify after last week, I was curious how far you break down your allocations. I'm just keeping tabs on them by sector but do you also go for market cap, growth/value, anything else? Is there one you think is most important to keep an eye on? Thanks for your input. [link] [comments]  |
| How will the tax bill affect REITs? Posted: 02 Dec 2017 02:58 PM PST |
| Posted: 03 Dec 2017 02:45 AM PST What are some professional opinions on etherium investing? It supposedly uses a superior protocol than bitcoin. But cryptos are easy to make and quick to fail. I want to hear what people think. [link] [comments]  |
| Pass through business to lower personal taxes? Posted: 02 Dec 2017 11:14 AM PST Now that the tax bill looks like it's going through, I was wondering if there's an advantage to standing up a pass through business where I put all of my investment assets into so that the gains are then taxed at the lower corporate rate instead of the higher personal rate. Has anyone done this or thought about it more? [link] [comments]  |
| Why are MLPs getting destroyed recently? Posted: 02 Dec 2017 12:50 PM PST Anyone have any theories on why the mlp sector is down so much? Many of these companies have healthy cash flow and can easily cover distributions, so why is the market so afraid to jump in at 10%+ yields? [link] [comments]  |
| Opinion on current economic state Posted: 02 Dec 2017 09:14 PM PST weekly i watch prof. Richard wolff economic status updates and it seems like he makes alot of sense on alot issues currently happening (tax bill)etc Which makes me kinda nervous about having skin in the game right about now any thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 02 Dec 2017 02:23 PM PST I am going to start investing 70/30 in shares/bonds. It's for a long term goal >15 years and I'll review the portfolio yearly, but not look into it too much. I live in the Netherlands, so remember I don't have access to all US ETFs. I've chosen for a 'lazy' dispersion; two ETFs.
This covers 1672 shares and 1159 bonds all over the world, including emerging markets. The TER is moderate. I probably overlooked something, that's why I'm posting here. How would you improve on this portfolio? [link] [comments]  |
| Why does some stocks not pay dividends? Why would I buy these? Posted: 02 Dec 2017 06:48 PM PST Noob here. My question is why would i buy a stock that never pay dividends? What gives these stocks value? These would never strengthen my position, nor would there be a reason for the prices of these stocks to be so high, since they technically give me no new assets. I read that Amazon would rather reinvest money than pay dividends, making a bigger and better company, but wouldn't that just make the price of the amazon stock just an arbitrary number based on marketing/hype? Thinking of Amazon and/or Google, or similar stocks. I'm assuming there are differences depending on what stock it is ETC, but would love to have some more knowledge about this [link] [comments]  |
| Opportunities in the December Lean Hogs Contract Posted: 02 Dec 2017 03:07 PM PST Contract Overview The Lean Hog futures contract is financially settled and uses the CME's 2 day weighted average cash index to determine the final price. The details of the index can be found here. The data the index uses are released in report "LM_HG201" which details prior day production for US hogs. This report is issued every weekday morning around 10am central and allows you to calculate the CME index before they publish it since they typically lag 2 days in their reporting. Calculation For a quick overview, these cash prices are what packing plants are paying to Hog Producers for their livestock. Since the contract unit is for 40,000 lbs, the cash pricing is what's the most important. Another important data point is the cutout value which indicates what packers are able to sell their products for. We can determine their margins based on the values they're paying for hogs and the values they can sell the end product for. From here we can get a glimpse at future action depending on a few other variables most notably demand (macro economic outlook, international trade & seasonality).
The important thing to note is that the future price and cash index will converge at the end of every contract's life. This isn't always the case in physically delivered contracts but it is in the financially settled ones. Its possible for there to be a spread at the end of the contract but luckily market efficiency takes care of this. December Contract Here is what the December contract looks like today Currently there's a $2.02 positive spread between the futures price of $65.275 and the latest CME index of $63.26 (rounding). As seen in the chart, this contract has been trading to a discount to the cash index until the basis flipped on the 24th. As the market saw cash starting to bottom out, it began to price in cash appreciation which we have seen recently (however the index has not moved as much as I'd expected). The cutout has been especially strong lately as well. Bellies have seen continued strength throughout November and Hams are in season right now. The rest of the cutout is weakening however which is keeping the overall carcass steady to down. If bellies weaken then the carcass will depreciate quickly and packer margins will erode. This would indicate that they will pay less and likely start lowering the cash. Fridays action & a glimpse at the future On Friday, we saw renewed strength in the contract as it pushed over $65.00 however the data was bearish with cash down 42 cents and as much as a dollar regionally. The cutout also took a hit however bellies are keeping it in check. Fridays can be weird in terms of data and we shouldn't determine a trend based on this however the supply story is interesting. The industry has been running under projected production for the past few weeks (as indicated in the last USDA Hogs & Pigs report found here ) and weights have been increasingly steadily (weight data released on Wednesdays and found here). Production estimates have consistently been revised down which could indicate that packing plants have been deliberately slowing the chain and the weight data would back this up since rising weights indicates pigs are sticking around longer and eating more. Demand has been keeping up with these rising supplies but the trade is beginning to take notice of the rising weights. If the packers are slowing the chain in order to keep the cutout inflated then its creating a new problem as pigs are backing up in the chain and only getting fatter. By seeking short term profits, they're actually creating a longer term problem. The question is when this starts to present itself. If Friday's decrease in cash & cutout become a trend, the futures will have to follow it and close the $2.0 premium basis. Then it will likely then have to build a discount to the index. This is where the fun begins my friends. Some Math Let's assume the index data for 12/1 mirrors the data for 11/30. This would bring the index to 63.42 with 9 days left to trade (note I kept Net Pricing the same but since its a 2 day weighted average, the index will still increase). To reach the current futures value of 65.275, we would need a daily index increase of 0.32%. Note that since the index started increasing, it has increased by a weighted average of 0.33%. This means the trade is expecting similar growth for the remainder of the contract life. This scenario also assumes steady cash net pricing on 12/1 which we already know was not the case. If we assume that the national cash decrease of 42 cents in both the negotiated and formula net pricing for the index on 12/1 and set 12/2 equal to that (due to the 2 day weighted average) then we would need an average increase of 0.44% to reach the current futures value. If we assume the trades assumption of 0.33% then we would reach $64.69 by settlement (which is still ~230 dollars per contract if you were to sell at the current price). Neither of these scenarios assumes cash trending back down however which I don't even need to model out because I think the price action is obvious. Summary If cash continues down, I imagine price action will follow sharply and close that premium. I bought up some 64 puts on Friday since I don't feel there a lot of risk to the upside unless there's significant cash appreciation which I think can be capped by supply concerns. If cash continues down, then I should exit with profit. However I will cover if cash continues up. We'll see what happens Monday! Originally Posted in /r/TheWallStreet [link] [comments]  |
| Tax question on capital gains in the US Posted: 02 Dec 2017 11:14 PM PST Hi all. I currently live abroad with a portfolio of stocks invested in Europe. Because I am not a EU resident I do not have to pay taxes on these stocks would I sell them. I am however planning to move to the US next year, and I was wondering if it wpuld make sense to sell these stocks before Dec 31st and buy them back on January first, so that I am only expected to pay US taxes on the gains on the profits made post Jan 1st? Or are there particular rules for capital gains that work in my favour/against me? [link] [comments]  |
| 3 years horizon: 13pct tax reimbursement or tax free gains? Posted: 02 Dec 2017 08:14 AM PST Hi fellow investors, I recently started putting my money into stocks and bonds, largely due to government program in my country that made investing easier. You have a choice either to claim 13% tax reimbursement from the amount deposited to brokerage account, or get a tax free returns. This program lasts 3 years, and once you make a choice - you can't go back. I.e January 2018 I'd probably file for tax reimbursement, because my return is negative so far (-2%). Is there a chance my the average annual market return will be above 13% in 2018 and 2019? Most of my stock is split between SnP 500(20%), t-bond funds(30%), high tech stocks (30%), and rest is split equally between all sorts of country indices (msci China 5%,msci Australia 5%,germany, UK etc) So, again which of the 2 options I should choose in your opinion and why? [link] [comments]  |
| How much upside in SP 500 on Monday? Any guesses? Posted: 02 Dec 2017 06:59 PM PST Hi Guys, Given that the corporate tax bill has been partially factored in the pricing of various stocks, how much upside are we looking at on Monday for SP 500? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 02 Dec 2017 08:20 AM PST I'm sure we have a wide variety of financial professionals on this sub, and while I don't think any in particular are worth an AMA I thought it might be interesting to have a thread where each top level comment is an AMA for a different profession. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 02 Dec 2017 03:00 PM PST Hello, Can someone tell me if I am calculating Piotroski's F - Score correctly? I am going to choose AMD for this exercise and run through the whole calculation using data collected from morningstar and I will use yearly reportings and not quarterly. For those who take the time to help me, thank you so much! Thanks, ~ Arthur Piotroski's paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1757025 ROA = -497 / 3321 F_ROA = 0 DeltaROA = (-497/3321) - (-660/3109) = -.14965 - -.21228 F_DeltaROA = 1 CFO = 90 / 3321 F_CFO = 1 Accrual = -497 / 3321 - 90 / 3321 = -0.149653719 - 0.027100271 F_ACCRUAL = 1 DeltaMargin = 23.36 - 27.06 F_DeltaMargin = 0 DeltaTurn = 1.33 - 1.16 F_DeltaTurn = 1 Average Total Assets (this year) = (3321 + 3109) / 2 = 3215 Average Total Assets (last year) = (3109 + 3767) / 2 = 3438 DeltaLeverage = (3521/3215) - (2905/3438) = 1.095 - 0.845 = 0.25 F_DeltaLeverage = 0 DeltaLiquid = (2530/1346) - (2320/1403) = 1.8796 - 1.6536 F_DeltaLiquid = 1 EQ_OFFER = 835 - 783 = 0 F_Score for AMD = 0 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 0 + 1 + 0 + 1 + 0 = 5 Edit: Formatting [link] [comments]  |
| Full Expensing In The Tax Bill? Posted: 02 Dec 2017 02:22 PM PST What exactly does this mean for companies. Does this mean a company writes off it's R&D? Depreciation? CAPEX? I'm curious as to how this would grow EPS for some of my holdings. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 02 Dec 2017 02:16 PM PST Hi, I am currently an undergraduate in the final year of a business management degree in the UK. While I plan on finding a graduate job and work my way up from there, I am highly interested in the world of investment, one issue, I barely know anything about it. My question for you is this, where do you start from? Do you grab a popular book, learn your way through online sites and forums, enroll in a course, etc... Thank you for reaching out, i'll be waiting for your suggestions [link] [comments]  |
| Corporate Tax Rate to Lower Gold Price Posted: 02 Dec 2017 01:09 PM PST It seems that from the mid 1970s to the mid 1980s (the era that most similarly reflects changes to the U.S. tax system as today) as the effective tax rate was lowered, the price of gold fell dramatically. Do we have any thoughts on the same situation? While turbulence is to come, gold would traditionally be a safe-haven for assets. However, with the lowered tax-rate, is gold due for a sudden downfall? I'd be interested to hear your thoughts. [link] [comments]  |
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