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    Saturday, February 19, 2022

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    Stock Market - Market close - Friday, February 18th, 2022

    February 19, 2022

    Stock Market - Market close - Friday, February 18th, 2022

    Market close - Friday, February 18th, 2022

    Posted: 18 Feb 2022 01:36 PM PST

    Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning February 21st, 2022

    Posted: 18 Feb 2022 09:19 AM PST

    Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning February 21st, 2022

    Posted: 18 Feb 2022 08:50 PM PST

    Good Friday evening to all of you here on r/StockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new holiday-shortened trading week ahead. :)

    Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning February 21st, 2022.

    Russia's Ukraine threat and worries on Fed rate hikes could make for a turbulent week in markets - (Source)

    The stock market faces another turbulent week, as investors watch the situation in Ukraine and continue to adjust portfolios ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes.

    Stocks were rocked in both directions in the past week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average seeing its worst day of the year Thursday. The three major averages were lower for the week with the Dow off 1.9%, the Nasdaq down 1.7%, and the S&P 500 down 1.6%. Energy, communications services and financials were the worst-performing sectors for the week.

    A few Fed speakers are on the calendar in the four-day week ahead, including Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Fed Governor Christopher Waller Thursday. Earnings continue to roll in, including reports from retailers Macy's and Home Depot. There are also a number of economic reports, including durable goods, consumer spending and inflation data.

    "Maybe the biggest issue [for the market] next week is technical," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group.

    The market continued to fluctuate with developments surrounding Russia's threat to invade Ukraine and its buildup of troops along the Ukraine border.

    "The problem with Russia, is what's the end game? It could just go on forever … When you look ahead, the thing that's going to change this is if they go in or there's a total pullout, and what's going to bring a pullout any time soon," Paulsen said.

    He said stocks had looked set to break out higher before Russia's threat against Ukraine started to weigh on the market. About two weeks ago, the S&P 500 tried to retake 4,600 after touching a low of 4,222 on Jan. 24.

    "It was doing that despite all the Fed stuff and inflation. The market was OK with it. Russia brought it all down. Now you are in a situation where if we break low enough, we have to break that low," said Paulsen.

    On Friday, Russia prepared to carry out more drills near Ukraine's border, while the U.S. continued to press for a diplomatic solution. After the market close, President Joe Biden said he is convinced Russia has decided to attack in coming days.

    "As an investor, that leaves you hanging there, and technically you have to wonder if we're going down to test that low," said Paulsen. "I don't know about the next 60 days, but the next six months should be good."

    Chart analysis is not guaranteed to predict the path of the market, but many investors set their sights on key technical levels since so many investors react to them and algorithms are programmed around them. They also become a guide when fundamentals are very uncertain.

    Watching the charts

    Scott Redler, chief strategic officer at T3Live.com, watches the short-term technicals. He sees a good chance that the S&P 500 revisits that January low in a retest. The S&P 500 ended Friday at 4,348.

    "The narrative for this year is inflation, and the Fed removing accommodation. We may get a knee-jerk reaction on the Russia-Ukraine situation," said Redler. He said even if the Russian threat fades, the market could still face volatility as the Fed moves to raise interest rates starting in March.

    "That doesn't solve the problem of four to seven rate hikes this year and the runoff of the balance sheet," he said, adding the market has responded negatively to Fed tightening in the past. "In 2018, the S&P fell 20% and the Nasdaq fell 24%. So why wouldn't the S&P test the 4,222 area?"

    Redler and other technical analysts are watching a bearish pattern on the chart of the S&P 500 that would suggest the index could form a "head-and-shoulders" pattern, which could bring even more volatility.

    "It's a distribution pattern, which is what the market's been doing over the past month as it builds the right shoulder," said Redler. He said the neckline on the chart wou

    ld be around 4,220 to 4,280. "After it forms, you get lower prices if the neckline breaks." In that case, he said the broad-market index could fall to 3,900, he added.

    Redler is also watching the charts of Big Tech stocks. "Apple has been an island where it's not acting special, but it's not breaking down. If Apple starts to break the 166-ish area, it would help to bring the S&P down faster," he said. "Apple's been trying to hold the $165 to $170 area, which keeps it somewhat constructive."

    Microsoft shares are also holding up. "Apple and Microsoft are such a high percentage of the S&P and the Dow. In order for the bears to really growl, they're going to have to break those two down, in addition to the high growth names," he said.

    Flight to safety

    In the bond market, investors have been weighing Federal Reserve rate hikes against worries about a Russian invasion of Ukraine. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.93% Friday. Yields move opposite price. Investors have been looking to the 10-year as a safe haven against possible weekend developments in Ukraine.

    A week earlier, the market was anxious about the possibility the Fed would be more aggressive with interest rate hikes, starting with a possible 50-basis-point hike in March. But in the futures market, expectations for a half-point rate increase faded as the week wore on. The market was pricing in just about a quarter-point hike Friday.

    St. Louis Fed President James Bullard had raised expectations for a bigger hike, and he reiterated that view Monday on CNBC's "Squawk Box." Then the minutes from the Fed's last meeting were released Wednesday. They were less hawkish than expected, with no indication that the Federal Open Market Committee members favored a bigger rate hike.

    "I think based on what we heard from the minutes and everyone except for Bullard, it doesn't seem anyone really favors a 50-basis point hike," said Ben Jeffery, rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets.

    As for economic data in the coming week, there are a few important reports including durable goods and consumer sentiment Friday.

    Personal consumption expenditures data is also expected Friday. Investors will be focused on the inflation reading in that report, which is closely watched by the Federal Reserve.

    "We kind of have a pretty good guide that that's going to come in ahead of expectations. It's probably the highlight of the week, as far as the data goes," said John Briggs of NatWest Markets.

    Boiling oil

    The tense situation with Moscow has driven oil prices higher because of concerns that any retaliatory sanctions from the U.S. could limit Russian oil on the market. West Texas Intermediate futures rose above $95 per barrel in the past week for the first time in seven years. But by Friday, the priced retreated to about $91.

    On Friday, the market reacted more to reports that the U.S. and Iran appeared close to a deal Friday to revive a nuclear agreement. If the deal is reinstated, Iran would be able to release its crude oil on to the global market.

    "There's a lot of positive commentary around it. There seems to be a conclusion in the market. It's a marriage of convenience. The market needs the barrels. The Biden administration needs the barrels, and the Iranians need the money," said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital.

    Kilduff said traders are watching the earnings reports from oil companies in the next week, with the most important being Occidental Petroleum. EOG Resources, NRG, Chesapeake Energy and Coterra Energy will also post results.

    With U.S. drilling rig counts increasing, Kilduff said investors are watching to see if companies report plans to increase drilling.

    "What are their capex plans going to be is a hot topic of conversation," he said.

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    S&P Sectors for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Indices for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

    Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

    Up 7 of Last 10 After Presidents' Day – Longer Term Still Weak

    DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are all up 7 of the last 10 years on the day after the Presidents' Day market holiday with average gains ranging from 0.12% for DJIA and 0.39% for NASDAQ. In our February 2022 Strategy Calendar for newsletter subscribers shows conflicting indications for this Tuesday, February 22, the day after Presidents' Day. Over the most recent 21-year history this 15th trading of February has been down more than 60% of the time for S&P 500 with average loss of -0.27% earning the day our "Angry Bear" icon.

    Earlier this we noted the improving trend of market performance ahead of Presidents' Day weekend. As you can see in the table here the days after has improved the past 10 years but the Wednesday after has not enjoyed the same turnaround and both days still display a fair amount of red. Since 1990, Tuesday after Presidents' Day has been strongest for the S&P 500 with 18 gains and 14 losses for median gain of 0.11% but with an average loss of –0.22%. DJIA also has more gains than losses on the Tuesday after, but NASDAQ is a net loser down 19 of 32 years with an average loss of –0.48% and a median loss of –0.21%.

    Wednesday is all red for all three major averages. NASDAQ and S&P 500 have more losses, but DJIA has a larger average loss. On the Wednesday after the Presidents' Day holiday DJIA is down 16 of 32 with an average loss of –0.06% and a median decline of –0.03%. S&P 500 is down 19 of 32, average –0.02%, median –0.10% and NASDAQ is down 18 of 32, average –0.03%, median –0.14%.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Diminishing Relative Strength For The US

    In 2021 US equities, using the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as a proxy, outperformed emerging markets (EEM) by 32.5 percentage points (ppts). That performance spread fell just short of 2013 when the performance spread was 35.4 percentage points (ppts). After 2013, SPY also outperformed EEM for each of the following three years by an average of 11.8% (median: 17.3%). Notably, we are currently on a streak of another four consecutive years of SPY outperforming EEM, which is tied with the period from 2013 through 2016 for the longest streak on record since EEM began trading in July of 2003. So far this year, SPY has traded down by 7.1% while EEM has gained 1.3%, thus resulting in a performance spread of 8.5 ppts.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    The start to 2022 has been tough for US equities relative to emerging markets, but what, if anything, does this mean for performance in the remainder of the year? Today (2/17) is the 33rd trading day of 2022, and since 2004, SPY actually only outperformed EEM at this point on a YTD basis 36.8% of the time. When EEM has outperformed SPY in the first 33 trading days of the year, the average rest of year performance spread has been -3.4 ppts (median: -5.6 ppts), meaning that EEM tends to continue outperforming for the rest of the year. While SPY tended to underperform, which one performed better for the remainder of the year was basically a coinflip as EEM only outperformed a little bit more than half of the time (54.5%). In terms of relative performance at this point in the year, 2022 ranks as one of the worst on record, second only to 2006 when SPY underperformed by 8.5 ppts. In 2006, EEM continued to outperform gaining 15.6% for the rest of the year compared to a 9.9% gain for SPY.

    Since 2004, there have only been four years where SPY traded down from the close on the 33rd trading day of the year through year-end, and three of those occurrences were in years where SPY underperformed EEM in the first 33 trading days. When EEM outperforms SPY by over 4% in the first 33 trading days, the average rest of year performance for SPY has been a gain of 10.6% (median: 9.9%) and 10.0% (median: 15.6%) for EEM. Neither of these performance numbers differs all that much from the median rest of year returns in all years since 2004.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    The chart below shows the relative strength of SPY vs EEM and European equities, as measured by the iShares Europe ETF (IEV) over the last six months where a rising line indicates outperformance of US stocks while a falling line indicates underperformance. Relative to both ETFs, US stocks are still outperforming over the last six months, but there was a clear shift in performance that began late in 2021, and both EEM and IEV are outperforming SPY.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Within the emerging markets group, Brazil (EWZ), South Africa (EZA), and Hong Kong (EWH) have been the strongest performers YTD, gaining 18.0%, 14.2%, and 6.0%, respectively. Of all of the countries we tracked that are classified as emerging markets, only one has underperformed the US YTD: Russia (ERUS). ERUS is down 8.2% YTD as the prospects of devastating sanctions from a potential invasion of Ukraine have been increasingly priced in.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Revisiting the Biggest Winners and Losers Since the COVID Crash Low

    In a little over a month on 3/23/22, we'll be exactly two years removed from the stock market's COVID Crash closing low. Below we show how the average stock that's currently in the S&P 1500 has done since the 3/23/20 low by sector. Stocks in the S&P 1500 are up an average of 155% since the COVID Crash low. By far the best performing sector has been Energy where the average stock is up 393%. Consumer Discretionary stocks are up the second most on average at +233.5%, while Materials stocks rank third with an average gain of 180.6%. Notably, stocks in the Financials and Technology sectors are both up roughly the same on average since 3/23/20 with gains of 148% and 145%, respectively. Three sectors have average gains of less than 100%: Consumer Staples (+94.4%), Communication Services (+89%), and Utilities (+42.9%). Note that these results are only based on price change, so higher dividend-paying sectors like Utilities are up more on a total return basis.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    There are currently 59 stocks in the S&P 1500 up more than 500% from their closing level on 3/23/20, and there are 11 up more than 1,000%. GameStop (GME) remains at the top of the list with a gain of 3,042%, followed by SM Energy (SM) and Matador Resources (MTDR) with gains of more than 2,000%. Aluminum-maker Alcoa (AA) is the best performing Materials stock on the list with a gain of 1,160% since 3/23, rising from $5.67/share up to $71.45 as of this morning. The average share price of the 11 stocks that are up 1,000%+ was just $4.42 on 3/23/20. Their average share price now is $66.78!

    Tesla (TSLA) is by far the largest company on the list of best performers with a market cap of more than $900 billion at the moment. Back on 3/23/20, Tesla (TSLA) shares closed at $86.86. Since then, the stock has gained 944%, putting shares above the $900 level.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    There are 56 stocks currently in the S&P 1500 whose price today is lower than it was at the close on 3/23/20. Below are the 35 stocks that are down at least 10% in price since then. eHealth (EHTH) and Tabula Rasa (TRHC) have been the worst two with declines of more than 80%. Another three are down more than 50% (QURE, STRA, IVR), while 16 more are down 20%+. The two stocks on the list of worst performers with the largest markets caps at the moment are Gilead (GILD) and Biogen (BIIB). These two stocks performed well in the very early days of COVID, but they've been trending lower ever since and currently trade at the same levels they were at in mid to late 2019.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Clorox (CLX) is an interesting name to see on the list of worst performers. When COVID first hit, there was a run on disinfectant products like bleach that Clorox manufactures. (Remember trying to find Clorox wipes throughout the first half of 2020? They were nowhere to be found!)

    The supply/demand imbalance pushed shares of Clorox (CLX) sharply higher from January to August 2020, but since then shares have steadily trended lower and lower, and they're now right back to where they were trading in early January 2020. Normally, we see stocks "take the stairs up and the elevator down," but the two-year chart for Clorox looks like the opposite: it took the elevator up when COVID first hit, and it has taken the stairs down ever since. Click here to view Bespoke's premium membership options.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    How Many Seats Could The Democrats Lose In November?

    One of the most popular questions we've received lately is what could happen in the upcoming midterm election? Although we are a long way away from Election Day, it is important to note that a new president has historically lost about 30 House seats in the midterm election. With the Democrats holding a historically small majority in the House currently, a swing this size would of course give the Republicans control.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    "Yes, history would say the Republicans likely gain control of the House and very well could gain the Senate as well," explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. "Coming into midterms the party that lost the presidential election is usually more motivated party, gaining close to 30 House seats going back to Woodrow Wilson in 1914."

    How does this all play out for your investments? We do expect Republicans to take the House right now, resulting in something close to a gridlocked Congress. What happens if Republicans take both the House and Senate? "The good news is one of the best scenarios for stocks is a Democratic President and Republican controlled Congress. In fact, the late 1990s saw that same scenario and it was one of the best times for investors ever," added Detrick.

    As seen in the LPL Chart of the Day, a Republican controlled Congress with a Democratic President has been quite kind for investors.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    One potential issue is President Biden's low approval rating. With his current Gallup approval rating hovering near 40%, this extrapolates out to potentially losing 50 seats in the House. Thanks to our friends from Strategas Research Partners for help with this chart.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    But let's remember the election is a long way off still and a lot could still happen. However Congress shapes up, there will be many checks and balances in place so what either party can do may be limited to areas where there's bipartisan agreement.

    Here are two more important midterm charts. First up, midterm years have seen the largest intra-year pullbacks, down more than 17% on average, but the S&P 500 Index has gained more than 30% a year off those lows. In other words, don't panic if we get some normal midterm volatility, it could be an opportunity for longer-term investors.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Lastly, early in a midterm year stocks historically are quite weak. It isn't until the election is over and the uncertainty is alleviated until a rally typically takes place. Every year is different, but maybe the weakness early in 2022 shouldn't be a big surprise.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending February 18th, 2022

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

    STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 2.20.22

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

    Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

    • ($HD $M $DNUT $NU $SPCE $TDOC $MELI $PANW $CDNS $LOW $TJX $OSTK $MNDY $FUBO $CLOV $SKLZ $LMND $EBAY $ROOT $MGNI $BABA $MRNA $NKLA $NCLH $SQ $COIN $BYND $ETSY $OPEN $INTU $ZS)
    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR FEBRUARY 2022!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE NOTABLE EARNINGS BEFORE THE OPEN ON TUESDAY!)

    Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

    Monday 2.21.22 Before Market Open:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE. U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF PRESIDENTS DAY!)

    Monday 2.21.22 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE. U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF PRESIDENTS DAY!)

    Tuesday 2.22.22 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 2.22.22 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

    Wednesday 2.23.22 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

    Wednesday 2.23.22 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #4!)

    Thursday 2.24.22 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)

    Thursday 2.24.22 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #4!)

    Friday 2.25.22 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

    Friday 2.25.22 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE.)

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    DISCUSS!

    What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

    I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/StockMarket. :)

    submitted by /u/bigbear0083
    [link] [comments]

    Here is a Market Recap for today Friday, February 18, 2022

    Posted: 18 Feb 2022 03:00 PM PST

    PsychoMarket Recap - Friday, February 18, 2022

    Stocks extended declines to close a second straight week in the red as the market continues to digest escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, with new reports estimating the size of the Russian force and President Biden warning that he believes Russia will invade in "the coming days".

    Markets Today

    • S&P 500 (SPY): -0.65%
    • Nasdaq (QQQ): -1.14%
    • Dow Jones (DIA): -0.64%
    • Russell 2000 (IWM): -0.86%
    • Volatility Index (VIX): -1.28%
    • Block (SQ): -6.06%
    • DraftKings (DKNG): -21.62%
    • Cloudflare (NET): -8.48%
    • NVIDIA (NVDA): -3.53%
    • Roku (ROKU): -22.24%
    • Appian (APPN): +13.622%
    • Amplitude (AMPL): +20.82
    • Cepton (CPTN): -59.45%

    The US Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said Russia has between 170,00-190,000 troops stationed near the border of Ukraine in a statement today's OSCE meeting, which Russia did not attend. Michael Carpenter said, "We assess that Russia probably has massed between 169,000-190,000 personnel in and near Ukraine as compared with about 100,000 on January 30."

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-has-massed-up-190000-personnel-near-ukraine-us-says-2022-02-18/

    In his second address this week, President Biden warned of a Russian invasion in the coming days and reiterated the US commitment to defending NATO allies. President Biden said, "We have reason to believe the Russian forces are planning and intend to attack Ukraine in the coming week, in the coming days. We believe that they will target Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, a city of 2.8 million innocent people. "The United States and our allies are prepared to defend every inch of NATO territory from any threat to our collective security. This is the most significant military mobilization in Europe since the Second World War."

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/18/biden-believes-putin-has-decided-to-attack-ukraine-in-coming-days.html

    In the Fed's latest meeting minutes, central bank officials reiterated they were eyeing a near-term interest rate hike and would determine the timing of their balance sheet reduction process "at upcoming meetings." This basically confirms we will see the first interest rate hike next month. The minutes, however, made no mention of discussions of a potential 50 basis point rate hike at the Fed's March meeting. Speculation that a rate hike of that magnitude might take place had been a source of uncertainty for investors.

    https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20220126.htm

    Treasury yields fell further after dropping across the curve on Thursday, with the 10-year yield holding back below 2%. This came as markets priced in a lower probability of a front-loaded 50 basis-point interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in March, with investors looking past hawkish commentary from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard calling for a more aggressive path on interest rates.

    https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

    "You have brains in your head. You have feet in your shoes. You can steer yourself any direction you choose." -Dr. Seuss

    submitted by /u/psychotrader00
    [link] [comments]

    Market close - Thursday, February 17th, 2022

    Posted: 17 Feb 2022 01:05 PM PST

    Airbnb: 2021 provides best financial results in the company’s history

    Posted: 18 Feb 2022 12:09 PM PST

    INTC is claiming to be a growth company, but they project huge targets in 2026. What is the best way to gain leveraged exposure on this investment since it is so far into the future?

    Posted: 18 Feb 2022 05:23 AM PST

    Crypto Market’s Recovery Helps AUM of Valkyrie Investments To Go Above $1 Billion

    Posted: 18 Feb 2022 10:04 AM PST

    This is something I learned from stock market.

    Posted: 18 Feb 2022 04:03 PM PST

    Tournaments for getting experience

    Posted: 18 Feb 2022 05:03 AM PST

    What could be a better way than learning from others' mistakes? Seems like it is the way WISE people evolve. It is a perfect case when you have such people surrounding you. You have a chance not to repeat their failures and feel that disappointment. Sure, it is an integral part of evolution. But nevertheless, if you can watch others acting and learn, you are an absolutely wise person.

    We all are fond of trading, cryptocurrency, NFTs and so on. From the first sight it seems very complicated, but when we are getting closer to this rush, we reveal the reason why. For privacy and security. Of course I hope that decentralization as it is won't be a barrier for the evolution of these technologies. We have a lot of ways to teach ourselves from youtube, different courses, sites and articles which are created by others. And we simply don't know yet if it is reliable. As an investor, not a trader , I can say that sometimes inaction is better than action.

    Just look at the recent startup, LOT tournaments. These guys have created a perfect system of crypto encouragement. Free to participate in tournaments on the regular basis with real prize pools. They also adapt to the conjuncture, and besides the open system of results and ranges, which stimulates people to learn, they decided to launch their limited NFT in a limited amount. These tokens give people an opportunity to earn even without participating, just holding them. Up to 55% APY and percentage of prize pools you will get as a partner.

    I appreciate such encouragement if it is true. Their token is still suffering, but tournaments are gaining popularity.

    submitted by /u/uniform_suspension
    [link] [comments]

    Morning Update for Friday, 2/18/22

    Posted: 18 Feb 2022 06:20 AM PST

    Good morning everyone. Have a nice Friday, and enjoy the long weekend!

    These posts are for informational purposes only. I am not a financial advisor.

    Main Watchlist:

    Gapping UP:

    • NFLX
    • DD
    • RIO
    • AMD
    • RIVN
    • CGNX
    • NRGV

    Gapping DOWN:

    • ROKU
    • DKNG
    • BILI
    • BABA
    • PDD
    • INTC
    • DKS
    • PPC
    • ANGH

    Momentum Watchlist:

    • QNGY
    • FSRD
    • MTEK

    Market Outlook:

    Stocks are looking to open a bit higher this morning after we saw some considerable selling off in yesterday's session; worth noting that we have come down from premarket highs, seeing some volatility in premarket. Yesterday marked the Dow's worst day since November. Russia-Ukraine tensions are still high, and according to President Biden the chances of a Russian invasion in the next few days are "very high". Lots of uncertainty regarding the implications of an invasion, as strict sanctions could have a global economic impact and push energy prices even higher. Not to mention the risk of this escalating into an all-out war. With the Fed likely to raise interest rates in March, we could be in for a choppy couple of months. I'll be watching/trading UVXY if we continue to see weakness in the market today.

    S&P Futures are down ~10 basis points, Dow Futures are down ~15 basis points, and Nasdaq Futures are currently trading flat. Gold and silver are looking to continue their strength. I'll be watching if gold can hold up over the 1,900 level, I'm still bullish here. Crude oil is pulling back a bit after the choppy session yesterday. Currently trading under the $90 level. Energy stocks are still trading near their 52-week highs, most trading slightly lower in premarket trading. Tech stocks could be in for some more weakness. I'll be watching for QQQ puts again most likely. Worth noting that collecting and sharing personal data has been a driving force for a lot of these companies. If restrictions are put in place for how they collect data, this could negatively affect these companies (like how we saw Apple's new policies wipe out a decent chunk of FB's revenue). Airlines and cruise stocks are looking to open a bit lower after they saw some red yesterday. Worth monitoring the COVID situation here, as a new strain could negatively impact these stocks.

    The crypto market is down a bit this morning, looking to extend losses from yesterday's session. Bitcoin is currently trading around 40,300. Trading right around a potential support level, could be in for more red if it breaks down. Ethereum is trading a bit under 2,900. Crypto-related stocks are down in premarket trading as a result.

    Remember to use proper risk management; size appropriately for your account and have a plan for every trade you enter. Happy trading everyone :)

    submitted by /u/vanturetrading
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    Zuora, Inc. (NYSE: ZUO), the leading cloud-based subscription management platform provider, today released the latest Subscription Economy Indexâ„¢ (SEI) report, which found subscription businesses in the index have outpaced S&P 500 growth rates by 4.6x over the past decade.

    Posted: 18 Feb 2022 03:57 AM PST

    Companies and consumers alike subscribed to ongoing digital services, including consumption-based business models, at increased rates during 2020 stay-at-home orders. Zuora̢۪s latest report shows that these behaviors continued throughout 2021. Even as the economy began to recover, SEI companies exceeded growth rates compared to the S&P 500. Churn rates (a metric that can measure the health of subscription businesses) have also decreased, suggesting that businesses are keeping their pandemic subscribers and that behavioral changes could be permanent.

    In the latest SEI report, The Subscribed Institute at Zuora® found:

    “While pandemic lifestyle changes accelerated subscription adoption, the latest SEI report makes it clear that subscribers continue to seek out these valuable digital services,” said Amy Konary, Founder and Vice President of The Subscribed Institute at Zuora. “Businesses can best harness this opportunity to deliver and monetize long-term customer value with flexible, customized subscriber experiences.”

    The SEI report also analyzed the impact of businesses with subscription revenue by sector, covering businesses in SaaS, Media, Manufacturing, Internet of Things (IoT), Business Services, and Communications/Video Conferencing, as well as by region (EMEA and APAC).

    The Subscription Economy Index report is available for download here .

    submitted by /u/Tomkila
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    Cathie Wood says her innovation stocks are 'way undervalued' and recent fund losses temporary

    Posted: 17 Feb 2022 09:20 AM PST

    Charlie Munger on inflation

    Posted: 16 Feb 2022 06:13 PM PST

    6.8 million missing homes

    Posted: 18 Feb 2022 07:20 AM PST

    It's a rough time for anyone trying to buy a home. Here's a rundown of the current state of affairs in the housing market.

    Did you know? America underproduced 6.8 million homes between 2010 and 2020. Single family homes became more attractive for remote work and more affordable with low interest rates. In 2021, supply saw historic low of 3.5 months and home price appreciation hit historic high of 17%.

    Where's the money? Homebuilders have outperformed the S&P 500 by 70% between 2019-2021. However, the sector has been hammered by rising interest rates in 2022 because, arguably, it is a levered cyclical land bet. A contrarian, though, might see an opportunity.

    What are your options? XHB offers an index approach to the sector. LGI Homes, Lennar, D.R. Horton, Pulte Homes, and Toll Brothers are leading companies in the sector. Do your homework.

    Position: Make up to 16.6% (18.2% annualized) and start to lose only if $XHB drops by more than 6.7% through 01/20/2023 with this spread:

    Buy 1 $70 call
    Sell 1 $80 call
    Sell 1 $67 put
    1/20/23 exp
    *based on $XHB @ $70.81

    Source: NAR, FRED, Barrons

    submitted by /u/OliveInvestor
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    MARKET CRASH IS GETTING WORSE. SELL IT ALL NOW? #INFLATION #WAR #RECESSION

    Posted: 18 Feb 2022 10:05 PM PST

    Here is a Market Recap for today Thursday, February 17, 2022

    Posted: 17 Feb 2022 02:25 PM PST

    PsychoMarket Recap - Thursday, February 17, 2022

    Stocks maintained their day-to-day volatility, falling sharply as market participants continue to grapple with renewed anxiety over geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine following a warning from President Biden that the threat of invasion was "very high". On a personal note, I find it highly suspicious how rhetoric keeps wildly swinging between "Russia is withdrawing" and "invasion is imminent".

    In an appearance at the United Nations, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken gave a grim assessment of the situation between Russia and Ukraine. He said, "We don't know precisely how things will play out. But here's what the world could expect to see unfold. In fact, it's unfolding right now. Russian missiles and bombs will drop across Ukraine. Communications will be jammed, cyberattacks will shut down key Ukrainian institutions. After that, Russian tanks and soldiers will advance on key targets that have already been identified and mapped out in detailed plans. We believe these targets include Ukraine's capital Kyiv, a city of 2.8 million people"

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/17/blinken-to-deliver-remarks-on-russian-threat-to-peace-and-security-at-u-n-security-council-00009733

    In a speech this afternoon, President Biden reiterated that the US believed an invasion of Ukraine was imminent. When asked by CNN reported Jeremy Diamond how high the threat level for the invasion was, Biden responded "It's very high. They have moved more troops in, number one. Number two, we have reason to believe they are engaged in a false flag operation to have an excuse to go in. Every indication we have is they are prepared to go into Ukraine, attack Ukraine."

    https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/17/politics/joe-biden-russia/index.html

    Honestly, I have no idea what is going on, I'm just passing on the information.

    In the Fed's latest meeting minutes, central bank officials reiterated they were eyeing a near-term interest rate hike and would determine the timing of their balance sheet reduction process "at upcoming meetings." This basically confirms we will see the first interest rate hike next month. The minutes, however, made no mention of discussions of a potential 50 basis point rate hike at the Fed's March meeting. Speculation that a rate hike of that magnitude might take place had been a source of uncertainty for investors.

    https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20220126.htm

    Moreover, on Tuesday, the Commerce Department released their monthly retail sales report, which showed retail sales in the US surged 3.8%, almost double the 2.1% expected by consensus economists, despite rising inflation, a great sign that consumer spending (which accounts for roughly 70% of US GDP) remains robust.

    Online shopping contributed the most on a percentage basis, with nonstore retailers seeing a gain of 14.5%. Furniture and home furnishing sales increased 7.2%, while motor vehicle and parts dealers saw a 5.7% rise.

    Food and drinking establishments, considered a barometer for the pandemic-era economy, saw sales dip just 0.9% for the month despite the major escalation in Covid cases fueled by the Omicron variant.

    Sales at sporting goods, music, and book stores fell 3% while gasoline station receipts were off 1.3% as a tick down in fuel costs saw prices at the pump move lower.

    On a year-over-year basis, retail sales overall rose 13%, pushed higher by a 33.4% surge in gasoline station sales and a 21.9% burst in clothing stores.

    Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index, which tracks average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output, jumped 1% for the month, double what consensus economists expected. In the last twelve months, PPI has jumped a staggering 9.7%, the highest level since 2010.

    Excluding food, energy, and trade services, co-called core PPI climbed 0.9% for the month, well ahead of the 0.4% estimate. For the 12-month period, the measure increased 6.9%.

    "It is during our darkest moments that we must focus to see the light." -Aristotle

    submitted by /u/psychotrader00
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    Used Car Market: Counter Cyclical ��

    Posted: 17 Feb 2022 07:52 AM PST

    Stock losses accelerate in the final hour of trading, with the Dow dropping more than 600 points

    Posted: 17 Feb 2022 12:16 PM PST

    What do you guys think of RIDE? Got a few call options recently that are sitting at a break even point. They have a partner with deep pockets to take care of manufacturing. Where do you think it will go?

    Posted: 18 Feb 2022 08:45 AM PST

    Agios Announces FDA Approval of PYRUKYND® (mitapivat) as First Disease-Modifying Therapy for Hemolytic Anemia in Adults with Pyruvate Kinase Deficiency – Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

    Posted: 17 Feb 2022 07:21 PM PST

    $SHOP at $1,042 (financial model in the link below)

    Posted: 17 Feb 2022 05:12 PM PST

    $SHOP earnings:

    Revenue $1.38B up 41% YoY Subscription Solutions $351.2M up 26% YoY Merchant Solutions $1.028B up 47% YoY MRR surpassed $100M at $102M GMV $54.1B up 31% YoY Gross profit $2.48B up 61% YoY

    what's your view?

    updated model here: https://www.stellarfusiongroup.com/public-scenario/620d6deb7effdd6ba87bc1d1?utm_source&=share-modal&utm_medium=page&utm_campaign=d2ec1d00-5fa3-11ec-b6fd-1927246d33e5](https://www.stellarfusiongroup.com/public-scenario/620d6deb7effdd6ba87bc1d1?utm_source&=share-modal&utm_medium=page&utm_campaign=d2ec1d00-5fa3-11ec-b6fd-1927246d33e5

    submitted by /u/sonicfastandfurious
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    Here's Your Daily Market Brief For February 17th

    Posted: 17 Feb 2022 05:23 AM PST

    📰 Top News

    US stock futures dipped in Thursday morning trading as investors digested corporate earnings reports, updates from the Federal Reserve, and developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

    US Fed ready to activate rate hikes - The US Federal Reserve outlined plans for interest rate hikes and a reduction in the asset holdings on their balance sheet as soon as March according to the minutes of its most recent meeting. Note: Global stock markets have been on edge over the past several weeks as soaring inflation and hawkish talk from Fed officials have fueled anxiety over multiple rate hikes in 2022.

    Ukraine claims propaganda by Russian state media- Ukraine has denied claims by Russian state media that it launched shells in eastern Ukraine, accusing Moscow-backed rebels of attacking a village in the region. Note: Russian-controlled media claimed that Ukrainian forces had shelled territory held by pro-Russian separatists.

    Munger voices displeasure for trading, crypto - Investing legend Charlie Munger has once again taken aim at day traders and cryptocurrency, likening the practices to "an ideal gambling parlor". Note: In his ideal world Munger said there would be "some kind of tax" on short-term gains that would incentivize investors to hold on to their stocks for longer and reduce liquidity.

    🎯 Price Target Updates

    Cowen upgrades Yum! Brands. YUM upgraded to OUTPERFORM from MARKET PERFORM - PT $143 (from $134)

    BofA Securities upgrades Upstart. UPST upgraded to BUY from UNDERPERFORM - PT $255

    Morgan Stanley downgrades 3M. MMM downgraded to UNDERWEIGHT from EQUAL WEIGHT - PT $150 (from $185)

    📻 In Other News

    US playing catch up to China in 5G race - The US government's "dithering" has left the country "well behind" China in the race to build out 5G technology according to former Google CEO Eric Schmidt. Note: In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, Schmidt and co-author Graham Allison urged the Biden Administration to make 5G a national priority otherwise "China will own the 5G future".

    Amazon, Visa make peace over fee squabble. - Amazon has reached a global agreement with Visa to settle a dispute over the credit card giant's fees. Note: Amazon has been piling pressure on Visa to lower its fees in a series of moves that signaled growing frustration from retailers over the costs associated with major credit card networks.

    Private equity, "alternative investments" to get more scrutiny - The US Securities and Exchange Commission has taken recent regulatory steps aimed at private equity funds and other alternative investments. Note: The moves aim to raise transparency for investors as the market and access to private equity funds (like venture capital and hedge funds) have grown significantly in the last decade.

    📅 This Week's Key Economic Calendar

    Thursday: Fed's Bullard Discusses The Economy and Policy Outlook, Initial Jobless Claims (wk end 12-Feb)

    Friday: Existing Home Sales (Jan)

    📔 Snippet of the Day

    Quote of the day: "Understanding and dealing with the trade-off between risk and return is a fundamental but poorly understood challenge faced by all gamblers and investors" - Ed Thorp

    submitted by /u/hivincentc
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    Reuters: Gold jumps, stocks stumble as Ukraine crisis worsens

    Posted: 17 Feb 2022 11:46 AM PST

    Just stay solvent - This is entirely within your control.

    Posted: 17 Feb 2022 03:42 PM PST

    We all know the saying about staying solvent and the market being irrational.

    Whether it is irrational or not, who really knows. what you do know is either you are up or down and usually you are thinking the market is wrong and that you are right.

    What I suggest is you throw your ego aside and accept that you are wrong. Maybe it will work out in the future maybe it wont. You have zero control over where the market goes. What you do have control over is how much you put in and when you put it in.

    If you believe the market to be irrational, theres no reason for you to not be able to remain solvent. No one is forcing you to buy or not take profits.

    tldr: you can absolutely stay solvent when you view the market to be irrational. plan your entry points and plan for the drawdowns.

    submitted by /u/badtradesguy
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