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    Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - February 08, 2022 Investing

    Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - February 08, 2022 Investing


    Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - February 08, 2022

    Posted: 08 Feb 2022 02:01 AM PST

    Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you? What country do you live in?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
    • Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
    • And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources.

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Peter Lynch: "Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than lost in the corrections themselves"

    Posted: 08 Feb 2022 05:32 PM PST

    Wanted to bring back a fantastic quote from Peter Lynch during these turbulent times in the market. I recently have seen a lot of finance "influencers", as you would call it, and YouTubers attempting to time the market. It seems reasonable to do so, especially when the market has been wiggly and volatile in the past couple of months.

    But this quote from Peter Lynch is a fantastic reminder of why timing the market is obsolete. Human emotions are imperfect and trying to time the market is no better than a fool's errand. The better thing to do is to simply invest in businesses that you understand at a good price, and continue to DCA through the downturns.

    Making rash decisions such as choosing to sell everything based upon some hunch that you have is probably going to get you nowhere.

    Hope this helps.

    -BDover

    submitted by /u/BenDoverR8Now
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    Warren Buffett: “Risk comes from not knowing what you are investing in”

    Posted: 08 Feb 2022 08:14 AM PST

    Finance people always come up with the most obscure measures of risk. Starting from using the beta of a stock to using the VIX index to measure overall risk and sentiment of the market, risk is defined to be something that is somehow quantitative and measurable.

    But as one of the greatest, if not the greatest, investor of all time Warren Buffett says: "risk comes from not knowing what you are investing in". Why? Because you are much more likely to make quick off handed decisions when you don't fully understand ur investments.

    When you are comfortable with your portfolio and understand the businesses you are invested in, a downturn shouldn't scare you. Of course you are free to go and underwrite these investments based on the new information, but most of the time it is probably right to continue buying and average down.

    Hope this helps. - BDover

    submitted by /u/BenDoverR8Now
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    Meta says it may shut down Facebook and Instagram in Europe over data transfer dispute

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 08:49 PM PST

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/07/meta-threatens-to-shut-down-facebook-and-instagram-in-europe.html

    Regulator headwind is damn strong. 27% of ads (20 Billion) revenue from Europe region is in risk.

    This might affect google as well in the future, Meta and Alphabet will have harder time to lobby EU government.

    Facebook has their community/marketplace that has not be monetized yet. Hell, they can allow community to sell ticket (ala eventbrite) and take margin on it. Something like a local photographer group that sell ticket for course and market place to sell gear.

    Otherwise the business will stagnate.

    submitted by /u/alcate
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    Am I making a Rookie Mistake?

    Posted: 08 Feb 2022 08:18 PM PST

    So I started investing last year and I have decent disposable income. If I have a stock that's doing well say it hits +15% or +20%, I sometimes sell for fear it drops back. And then for stocks that are not doing well, say -15% or -20%, I hold and say time will decide if it works or not.

    I feel this is a big mistake, to take profits on winners and long hold losers. Realistically I feel I don't know when to call it a day or losers and I'm happy to just let them sit there and play out because it won't affect my life either way. But I'm obviously concerned this makes for bad investments and investing decisions.

    Am I capping my gains and maxing future losses? Any thoughts?

    submitted by /u/feedthebear
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    What should be my next step?

    Posted: 08 Feb 2022 09:34 PM PST

    Hi everyone. I'm currently in college and has an IRA through Fidelity since a few months back. I'm working a part time job and makes sure to put money from each paycheck aside for checking, emergency savings, and IRA and am looking into investing even more. I have some individual stocks through E*Trade but have thought about investing in index funds. I've looked at FXAIX and am wondering about people's experience with this? Should I focus on investing money into index funds or are there better alternatives? I'm obviously not making a lot of money at the moment, being that I'm a full time college student and only work once a week but anything is better than nothing. What should my next step be?

    submitted by /u/depresso4espresso
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    What is this sub's opinion on Lithium stocks? Specifically RIO vs LIT vs ALB

    Posted: 08 Feb 2022 07:46 PM PST

    If you're trying to capture gains on some of the increasing demand for Lithium for electric cars, electronics, renewable energy storage, etc which lithium stock would you prefer and why?

    LIT is an ETF that tries to capture the entire industry but has TSLA as one of it's largest holdings

    RIO makes most of their money from Iron Ore but is moving into lithium and has rights to one of the largest lithium deposits in Europe.

    Albermarle appears to be the current industry leader in lithium mining.

    Would you invest in any of these? None of them? Curious to hear people's thoughts on this.

    submitted by /u/numba1mrdata
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    Twitter's earnings tomorrow will surprise skeptics

    Posted: 09 Feb 2022 12:20 AM PST

    I guarantee most of you (including myself) were wrong about Snapchat heading into earnings.

    So how will Twitter do?

    I think bc of such low expectations and 40% in a year, I actually think they will beat and the stock will surge. 20% tomorrow post earnings.

    I have a TINY position in this headed into earnings and do not intend to add more going in.

    I've liked their ad monetization lately, and there is a TON of potential in their super followers idea. They should have been making Twitter a pay site a few years ago, but we'll see. I think people will be pleasantly surprised.

    Bullish!

    submitted by /u/BurnerBurnerBurns20
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    Would like insight if I use acorns for this specific strategy

    Posted: 09 Feb 2022 12:14 AM PST

    My savings account has "keep the change" feature where it basically just whole dollar round ups from my checking account purchases ($1.25 = $.75 Keep the Change). Well might as well cancel that bank feature and just use acorns' feature while still putting a % of my income into my savings. Keep the change doesn't cost any money but acorns is $3 a month. Assuming I'd accumulate $120/yr in change, acorns is taking away $36/yr which is 30% loss which probably won't be beaten by the market. Idk the math, so will I ever be in the positive for this strategy? Say in 10 years from now, will my account have actually appreciated apart from my automatic investments for actual gains? I'm assuming market will perform yoy 15% average, but will that actually depreciate my account 15% every year to make it not worth it? I already have a Roth IRA, personal investing account with recurring investments, 401k so this will only be investing the change.

    submitted by /u/Kockerbocker
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    Disney, Netflix, Apple: is anyone winning the streaming wars? from TheEconomist

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 04:16 AM PST

    "Most people used to cancel their cable-TV subscription only when they moved house, says Doug Shapiro, a former chief strategy officer at Turner Broadcasting System, a television company. Now, he says, they are "becoming accustomed to churning on or off over the quality of content", signing up to devour the latest hit and then cancelling their membership. Apple TV+, which has the most serious retention problem, loses a tenth of its customers every month, according to Antenna, a data firm, meaning that every year it churns through the equivalent of more than 100% of its members (see chart 2)." https://imgur.com/a/83Wohkk

    https://www.economist.com/business/disney-netflix-apple-is-anyone-winning-the-streaming-wars/21807591

    I didn't know there was lots of us that stop and start streaming services

    submitted by /u/Alex09464367
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    Investments and money things

    Posted: 08 Feb 2022 01:32 PM PST

    Simple investing

    I often read investment and stocks subreddits in addiction to my usual economic and financial research. One thing really stands out. Panic selling is always because people give too many fucks about what their investments are doing. The first step is to figure out how long you are investing this money for or what is it you are saving for. When will you need it? Do you care if it does much more than beat inflation?

    You could read about all the best ways of investing but this isn't about that. The point is that if you know what you are doing and where you want to be going then any temporary setbacks should be as relevant as a bug on your windshield. It happens. The bug is gone and it probably had a short lifespan anyway. You flip your wipers and forget about it. The same goes for investments and savings. Sometimes you can't save as much as you set out to or an emergency happens and you need to spend some savings. The actual flow of money over a span of time should be towards securing yourself and any family you have. Panic and stress over the short term that doesn't impact you is a waste of your time.

    TLDR numbers go up numbers go down and your goals will be completed eventually.

    Forget about it. You could go have a coffee.

    submitted by /u/ManofWordsMany
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    What's the current bear case?

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 01:31 PM PST

    There was a lively discussion yesterday asking "what's the current bull case?" This is an attempt at exploring the other side of the coin.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/slztfh/whats_the_current_bull_case/

    Top hits yesterday:

    "Corporate profits are still quite healthy. There is pent up consumer demand for a range of goods, especially automobiles. The job market is very healthy"

    "There is no alternative. Where are you going to put your money?...there are not a lot of alternatives that provide similar liquid opportunities to get capital gains or yield like to the stock market."

    "We live in a bailout economy where the fed's third, unspoken mandate (apart from stable inflation and full employment) is the maintenance of asset prices."

    "The bull case is that we're going into a global economic boom."

    "Over a long enough time horizon, the bull case is always: the increase in productivity due to innovations in technology and business processes lead to economic growth under global capitalism."

    All interesting arguments.

    As there are always two sides to any trade, what is the flip side of the coin? What's the current bear case?

    submitted by /u/CQME
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    recommendations for Fundamental analysis tools similar to SimplyWall St

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 11:38 PM PST

    I've been subscribed to SimplyWallSt for about 2 years now but I find their fair value assessment is very inaccurate and overly optimistic.

    I've used Finbox and Stockopedia before but was wondering if anyone knows of a better tool for screeners with decent fair value assessments.

    I'm looking for tools that have the following:

    • Fair value / DCF valuations
    • 10 year data on companies
    • Company ownership + insider transactions
    • Portfolio / Watchlist tracker
    • Fundamental analysis (not technical charts)

    P.S. I like Stockopedia but their plans are way expensive

    submitted by /u/robertshuxley
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    $XELA Exela Cements Europe Presence with Purchase of Headquarters in Ireland

    Posted: 08 Feb 2022 08:22 AM PST

    Foreign and Domestic Head Quarters is gonna blow $DOCUSIGN out of the water! One of the most obvious and compelling reasons to move is the desire to increase profits. There can be huge tax breaks associated with being a legal entity registered in a tax haven. Ireland, Switzerland and Panama have all attracted this kind of investment. Another reason to relocate or add is to base the business in a major financial centre such as London, New York, Frankfurt or Hong Kong. Firms that do this may be motivated by better opportunities to raise capital and have access to highly specialised talent. This kind of move is particularly popular with businesses from emerging economies as it shows a commitment to robust legal standards and business practices. This can enhance their reputation (and subsequently, performance). Finally, businesses sometimes relocate or add HQ's as a result of an acquisition. When a company is bought up by another company, its corporate location may switch to that of the buyer – this is what happened when Budweiser moved to Belgium, after it was bought by InBev. Either way, this is VARY VARY GOOD!

    submitted by /u/Interesting_Guava_23
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    Northeast Town saw some crazy returns..can I access what they are investing in?

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 05:35 PM PST

    I work as a b2b sales engineer, some of my clients are commercial/industrial, some are municipalities.

    I was doing some research on a customer that submitted a very large project with us for the FY23 budget. Out of curiosity, I dug into their financial reports.

    They publicly reported their "investment returns" for the last 5 years. Every single year was seeing a 60-150% return.

    For starters, is there any way to access what they are investing in via public record?

    Secondly, is it a fugasi, fugaysi, fairy dust? Do municipalities count things like random donations or other vague financial returns into that number?

    Niche question, I know.

    submitted by /u/Spiritual-Pie-4764
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    How to digest all this data?

    Posted: 08 Feb 2022 02:55 AM PST

    So, I understand the sell off in sovereign bonds. Which leads to sell off in high-yield credit.

    It is my understanding, that sell off in HY leads to difficulty raising capital and sell off in equities.

    The earnings of most companies in the S&P make them appear to be flush with cash. So, I assume the S&P should be somewhat insulated (minus unprofitable companies). How do I apply increasing commodities into this equation. My instinct is to follow the trail to EM markets. BUT! in the setting of globalization + covid, they will be hit the hardest, right? Plus, Iran is opening up and adding huge amounts of oil.

    Let me know what your moves will be.

    submitted by /u/Past-Track-9976
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    Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD)

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 02:48 PM PST

    Can anyone help me understanding why APD is taking a free fall when their fundamentals are solid. The stock value has declined 20%. They had a solid Q and the stock was 40 pts from its highs... not sure why the stock went down so hard; doesn't really make sense. I like APD's profitability, growth, cash flow, balance sheet, dividend, discipline, defensiveness and environmental upsides. In fact the dividend went up by 12 cents per share from $1.50 to $1.62. Interested to hear any other factors causing the crash. Something obvious must be happening. Thanks in advance.

    submitted by /u/yadappb
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    Does anyone invest in the SP500 by sector instead of as a whole index?

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 11:19 AM PST

    The SP500 has (as of 2022) 11 sectors: Information Technology, Healthcare, etc.

    Being a market-cap-weighted index, not all companies are represented equally. This is reflected in the sectors' distribution. Eg. Information Technology is 28.7% as of today, Healthcare is 13.1%, etc.

    Considering the divergence in size between the top 10 companies in the index and the next 25, we "lose" the true power of the gains (and the losses too, of course) provided by the rest of the business.

    That said, would it be bad in the long term to invest at least in the SP500 using its underlying sectors? Vanguard has a list of ETFs representing each SP500 sector and so does SPDR. E.g. XLK/VGT, XLV/VHT, etc. One could go even further and invest in the top X of each sector.

    There are equally-weighted ETFs representing the SP500, but going with the same % allocation would provide lower returns in the long term, so that's a no.

    I'm sure this is not a new idea... but it may be worth exploring anyway.

    Thoughts?

    submitted by /u/Winter-Maize-6667
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    Looking for advice on if i should add a 2nd dividend heavy etf?

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 06:26 AM PST

    I have a 401k which I contribute 11%, company match is 6, with fidelity so I have that split up into 5 of their funds that pretty much covers me in the whole market.

    I have my own IRA and a regular investment account. My IRA currently gets the full 6k yearly which is going into SCHD. I'm looking for another dividend heavy ETF for my regular account for the extra money I can contribute.

    My questions are my thought is to have 2 etfs first before I start adding individual stocks, seems like less work for me honestly. 1 in IRA, 1 in regular account. Whats another I should be looking at without much overlap to SCHD that is dividend heavy for my regular account?

    Also is SCHD good for my IRA or should I put that in my reg account and get something different for my IRA? All dividends reinvested in all accounts. I'm currently 41 years old.

    Thanks in advance for any advice offered.

    submitted by /u/yougetwhatyougive88
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    Can anyone make a bull case for CVNA?

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 09:31 AM PST

    Here's what I'm thinking...

    Would you buy a company that has never turned a profit despite the fact that it is in an old world industry and has been around for 10 years? One that suddenly found itself in a position where the perfect storm of tailwinds was propelling it forward but couldn't make a profit? One whose revenues suddenly increased by 50% but still resulted in a loss? Would you value that company based on a multiple of sales when increased sales doesn't result in profit? I sure wouldn't but somehow it has a $26B market cap. That's why I own puts (market cap was $35B when I bought them).

    Then along comes GM and decides that they are going to get into competition with these guys. As a GM shareholder I am extremely disappointed with this. All the added competition is going to do is cut gross margins making the losses even greater. It's going to be a race to the bottom.

    submitted by /u/johnfromvancouver
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    Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - February 07, 2022

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 02:01 AM PST

    Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you? What country do you live in?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
    • Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
    • And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources.

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    If you want to predict which stock is going to take off then it’s in your best interest to follow the industries that Amazon is collaborating with

    Posted: 07 Feb 2022 11:20 PM PST

    UCL stock (Ucloudlink) is up 100% in the after market; they made a previous deal with Amazon Web Services.

    https://www.partnerbase.com/amazon-web-services/ucloudlink

    VLDR stock (Velodyne Lidar) is up 60% after issuing warrants to one of Amazon's subsidiary.

    https://www.reuters.com/technology/velodyne-issues-warrant-396-mln-shares-amazon-subsidiary-2022-02-07/

    There's a theme going on here as you can see… Do a deal with Amazon and the stock in the company will surge.

    That usually goes for any big company (Apple, Google, Microsoft, etc).

    Right now the light is on Amazon. If you do the proper due diligence, there's an opportunity to become rich off of Amazon. And you don't even need a prime membership. Cheers!

    submitted by /u/WallStreetDoesntBet
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