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    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Dec 17, 2021

    December 18, 2021

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Dec 17, 2021

    r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Dec 17, 2021

    Posted: 17 Dec 2021 02:30 AM PST

    This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on fundamentals, but if fundamentals aren't your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against fundamentals here and not in the current post.

    Some helpful day to day links, including news:

    Most fundamentals are updated every 3 months due to the fact that corporations release earnings reports every quarter, so traders are always speculating at what those earnings will say, and investors may change the size of their holdings based on those reports. Expect a lot of volatility around earnings, but it usually doesn't matter if you're holding long term, but keep in mind the importance of earnings reports because a trend of declining earnings or a decline in some other fundamental will drive the stock down over the long term as well.

    See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:

    Market Cap - Shares Outstanding - Volume - Dividend - EPS - P/E Ratio - EPS Q/Q - PEG - Sales Q/Q - Return on Assets (ROA) - Return on Equity (ROE) - BETA - SMA - quarterly earnings

    If you have a basic question, for example "what is EBITDA," then google "investopedia EBITDA" and click the Investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

    Useful links:

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    The structure of Reddit is a horrible fit for discussing stocks

    Posted: 18 Dec 2021 12:01 AM PST

    As an example, I had a thread many months ago discussing the performance of infrastructure stocks such as MLM, Vulcan, Nucor etc... and why they were underperforming despite the assurance or expectation that a infrastructure bill would eventually be passed.

    I was told over and over again that I missed the boat and it was already too late and "Everything was priced in" already to the price of the stocks. These comments were the most upvoted ones and accounted for 90% of the thread.

    Well flash forward to today and since that thread, the stocks had gone up 20-25% since then instead. I am lucky I didn't sell all of my infrastructure, but the format of reddit where only the "top" comments are at the top of the thread especially in stock circumstances leads to brigading and hive mind thinking when these ideas are not necessarily the best ones.

    I like Reddit, and a few people have some very good ideas. But most people are just regurgitating what others tell them, and sadly those are constantly the top upvoted answers. Let this be a warning to all of you to take into 2022!

    submitted by /u/BurnerBurnerBurns20
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    JPMorgan agrees to $125 million fine for letting employees use WhatsApp to evade regulators reach

    Posted: 17 Dec 2021 05:37 AM PST

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/17/jpmorgan-agrees-to-125-million-fine-for-letting-employees-use-whatsapp-to-evade-regulators.html

    JPMorgan Chase is paying a $125 million fine to settle Securities and Exchange Commission charges that its Wall Street division allowed employees to use WhatsApp and other platforms to circumvent federal record-keeping laws. The SEC said Friday in a statement that JPMorgan Securities admitted to "widespread" record-keeping failures in recent years. The bank's employees used personal smartphones and email accounts, as well as messaging services including Meta-owned WhatsApp, to conduct securities business matters from at least January 2018 through November 2020, the regulator said. SEC officials who spoke to reporters Thursday evening said JPMorgan's failure to preserve those off-line conversations violated federal securities law and left the regulator blind to exchanges between the bank and its clients.

    Federal law requires financial firms keep and retain meticulous records of electronic messages between brokers and clients so that regulators can make sure those firms aren't skirting anti-fraud or antitrust laws. Regulators in New York and London have ratcheted up enforcement of record-keeping rules in recent years as traders migrated to encrypted messaging platforms including WhatsApp, Signal or Telegram. While phone conversations and messages on official company devices and software platforms are preserved, it's much harder for bank compliance departments to surveil communications on third-party apps. The method picked up in popularity after two of the industry's biggest trading scandals of the past decade (involving manipulation of Libor and foreign exchange markets) hinged on incriminating messages preserved in chatrooms, resulting in multi-billion dollar fines for banks.

    Traders at JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank and other firms have been dismissed or placed on leave for infractions tied to the practice. But the SEC order reveals how pervasive it was. At JPMorgan, the practice of going offline to communicate was firm-wide, and even the managers and senior personnel responsible for compliance used their personal devices to communicate sensitive business matters, the SEC said. The investigation at JPMorgan is ongoing and the SEC has launched similar probes at firms across the financial universe. JPMorgan ordered its traders, bankers and financial advisors to preserve work-related messages on personal devices earlier this year, Bloomberg reported in June.

    Officials declined to offer details on the current status of the JPMorgan examination or those at other banks. "As technology changes, it's even more important that registrants ensure that their communications are appropriately recorded and are not conducted outside of official channels in order to avoid market oversight," SEC Chair Gary Gensler said in a press release. In stressing the importance of diligent recordkeeping, Gensler recalled the foreign exchange scandal of 2013, when traders at several of the globe's largest banks used a private chat room to conspire to fix currency rates to maximize profits. Five of the globe's largest banks, including JPMorgan, ultimately agreed to pay more than $5 billion in combined penalties and plead guilty to resolve the investigation. "Books-and-records obligations help the SEC conduct its important examinations and enforcement work," Gensler added. "They build trust in our system." While SEC officials said the $125 million penalty is its largest recordkeeping fine to date, the bigger threat to JPMorgan may be reputational. By going after JPMorgan, the world's biggest Wall Street firm by total revenue, the SEC has put the industry on notice.

    submitted by /u/WickedSensitiveCrew
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    What are your 10 stocks for the year 2022.?

    Posted: 17 Dec 2021 03:11 PM PST

    Pick your 10 stocks which you are going to buy and hold and believe will perform well in the long term.
    Maybe we can check back in next December to see who had a good spread.! and discuss about other's spread and suggest.!

    I am going to go safe and say:

    • NVDA, AMD.
    • VTI, QQQ.
    • SQ, TSLA.
    • FB, AAPL, MSFT.
    • ((any suggestions for my 10th with this portfolio? ))

    Whats yours ? SHOOT.!

    submitted by /u/johnreese421
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    What’s your worst performing stock that you still have faith in?

    Posted: 17 Dec 2021 10:14 AM PST

    I am in but more and have crossed a number of items off my buy list and waded into higher risk higher return waters. I am looking for stocks with solid fundamentals that have been beaten up. Looking to buys calls for 2024.

    So what stock have you bought that's done poorly but you still believe in?

    submitted by /u/Didntlikedefaultname
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    Realized my Portfolio is nearly 100% Tech. Any recommendation on where to diversify it outside of Tech?

    Posted: 17 Dec 2021 08:33 PM PST

    So with the recent pullbacks affecting the growth sector and Tech, I realized that my portfolio is pretty vulnerable as it's nearly 100% tech (Only reason it isn't is because of VOO). I get there's nothing inherently wrong with being Tech heavy, as most people and funds are, but I would like to be better protected against pullbacks that are Tech specific, as well as diversify my portfolio a bit more. Currently holding MSFT, VOO, RKLB, SOFI, V, XLNX. Would love to get into retail, and others, but I'm just not sure where to start.

    submitted by /u/werewere223
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    What were your biggest investing mistakes this year (actual purchase, not including missed opportunities)?

    Posted: 17 Dec 2021 03:42 PM PST

    I opened up a side portfolio to see if I could beat my managed retirement fund. I got into things that were more volatile or into sectors they wouldn't or couldn't engage in. So my choices were intentionally riskier. I hit a couple of wins, but overall, I underperformed and trailed the S&P. And here are the sons of bitches most to blame for that.

    TLRY - sold at $10.61. Bought at $43, then $35, then $20, then $25…..

    BABA - sold at $130. Bought at $169 and $150

    BIDU - sold at $150. Bought at $215 but then sold at $190, only to REBUY at $215 again… and at $200, and $195, and $165, and $140.

    I'm also down 24% on NVTA, 25% on HOOD, and a whopping 42% on BB.

    I won't even get into the block projects I put money into, where 11 of 13 have lost money….

    So yeah… basically don't do what I did.

    Thank god for TSLA and MRNA!

    submitted by /u/Strongest-There-Is
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    Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning December 20th, 2021

    Posted: 18 Dec 2021 03:47 AM PST

    Good Saturday morning to all of you here on r/stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new holiday-shortened trading week ahead.

    Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning December 20th, 2021.

    Market turbulence may be a theme in the holiday week as investors fret over omicron, the Fed - (Source)

    Stocks could be volatile in the coming week, with thin volume exaggerating moves in both directions ahead of the Christmas holiday.

    The market was whipsawed in the past week, with the Nasdaq down about 2.9% since Monday and lagging the other major averages on a weekly basis. Technology stocks were at the center of major market swings, as investors reacted to the spreading omicron Covid variant and the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift.

    "As we head into the last two weeks of the year, we know volume is light and volatility can also pick up," said Jeff Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab. "There's the possibility of a Santa rally, but there's also the possibility that the lack of volume can lead to dramatic swings to the downside as well."

    While December is typically positive for stocks, the traditional Santa Claus rally is the historically positive market performance that often comes in the last five trading days of the year and first two of January, according to Stock Trader's Almanac. As the saying goes, if Santa doesn't call, bears may come to Broad and Wall — the street address of the New York Stock Exchange.

    A thinner market near the end of the year

    So far, the S&P 500 is still up 1.2% for December, but it's down nearly 1.9% for the week. The broad-market index has a roughly 23% gain for the year. The index ended Friday at 4,620.

    "The Santa Claus rally this year is a little tough to call because the market has done so well up to this point. Building on that momentum is a bold call," said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. "Volumes are going to decrease, and that's likely to lead to greater volatility into year end. It wouldn't surprise me if markets close the year strongly, but with the omicron variant and the Fed tightening, it just seems anxiety is at high levels."

    Strategists haven't given up on the idea of a late December to early January rally. However, with the selling pressure, it could be more difficult for the seasonal year-end buyers to boost the market. The thinness of the market may also make it tricky to gauge how stocks will trade into January.

    "I think it's going to be hard to get a real tell on the market — the light volume and the fact there's going to be relatively little economic news or corporate news. It's going to be just incremental news on omicron," said Kleintop.

    He said earnings in the past year have been a catalyst for stocks, with companies beating estimates and raising guidance. That could turn the tide in the next earnings season in mid-January, if stocks continue to move lower.

    "This time we might get a lot of dividend increases. There's a lot of cash out there," he said. Kleintop said expectations are for just an 8% gain in corporate profits in 2022, and that could move higher since companies appear to be managing margins better than expected.

    In the week ahead, there are several economic releases to watch. The markets will be most fixated on personal consumption expenditures next Thursday, as the so-called PCE deflator is the inflation data most watched by the Federal Reserve. The report follows November's hot consumer price index, which was up 6.8% on a year-over-year basis.

    Arone said the market will also monitor the consumer confidence index release next Wednesday for inflation expectations. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index is out Thursday.

    Key real estate indicators are also out next week, with existing home sales on Wednesday and new home sales Thursday. Durable goods are also out Thursday.

    The market is closed for the Christmas holiday on Friday.

    Bond market confusion

    As stocks gyrated, bond yields went down in the past week, especially after the Fed announced Dec. 15 that it would speed up the end of its bond-buying. The central bank also provided a new interest rate forecast which showed members expect as many as three hikes next year, when previously they did not forecast any.

    The Fed also removed the description of inflation as "transitory" from its statement.

    Bond yields move opposite price, so the move lower in rates was surprising to market professionals. It would be logical to have expected a jump in yields at the shorter end of the market, which is most influenced by Fed policy. For instance, the 2-year Treasury yield was at 0.63% Friday afternoon, below the 0.67% level it was at ahead of the Fed news.

    The benchmark 10-year yield was at 1.44% before the Fed's announcement. It had fallen to 1.37% by Friday morning and was at around 1.40% in afternoon trading.

    Yields initially inched higher Friday afternoon after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank could raise interest rates as early as March. Goldman Sachs economists had been expecting a March hike, but most expected the Fed to wait until May or June because it will end its bond program in March.

    "I do think the omicron scare has got people spooked. On the long end, it's weighing on it," said Wells Fargo's Michael Schumacher. "The front end doesn't make a lot of sense. We just heard from the Fed... The front end should really be taking its marching orders from Powell."

    China easing?

    While the Fed and the Bank of England have recently moved to tighten policy, another economic superpower may be doing the opposite.

    Schumacher and Kleintop said a positive surprise for markets could come from China ahead of Monday's trading.

    "On Monday, we'll all be watching China with what they do with their loan prime rate. There's a chance they could cut it," Kleintop said.

    "If China is going to re-inflate their economy, that would be a real boost to global growth," he said.

    What to do

    Kleintop said investors should stay fully invested. He noted that because of the big rotations in market leadership this year, investors should be more diversified.

    "Every time we started to see a breakout with value, it was crushed with another virus outbreak. We should be seeing growth stocks outperform here, as cases rise, but they haven't made a new high relative to value since the news of omicron," said Kleintop.

    Kleintop noted that the tech sector is highly valued, with its price-earnings ratios 10 points above the 20-year average. The forward price-earnings for global tech was 28.5 Friday. He said that compares to the global energy sector, trading on a 12-month forward price-earnings ratio of 9.5, about nine points below its average.

    "This is the widest gap we've seen between the growthiest of the growth and the value sectors," Kleintop said. "We haven't seen tech make a new high relative to energy since before omicron. Certainly, there's the Fed weighing on valuations as well as there's the idea there's going to be less liquidity pouring into these favorite stocks."

    Kleintop said he does not see a big gain for the market in 2022, like this year, and investors should look abroad for some better gains.

    "We see a positive year for equities but nothing like this year," he said. "There's a potential outperformance by Europe and international next year, after they underperformed."

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    S&P Sectors for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Indices for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

    Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #4!)

    Outperformance from Low Volatility

    Over the last two weeks, low volatility names have outperformed the broader market. The PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV) has ticked 6.83% higher over the last 10 trading days as of yesterday's close. During the same time period, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) moved 4.36% higher. Investors have poured into safer names so far in December, but SPLV has still underperformed SPY on a YTD basis. Over the last three months, the performance of these two ETF's has been essentially identical with SPLV breaking out to all-time highs, while SPY struggles to break out. Although investors are not necessarily selling off equities broadly, they are gaining exposure to lower volatility names, which could be interpreted as taking a more conservative posture.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    The two-week performance spread between SPLV and SPY is currently at an elevated level, and as of earlier this week (12/14) was at its widest level since 1/31/20, which is less than a month before the COVID correction began. Investors should watch the performance of low volatility names moving forward, as continued outperformance would signal that investors are becoming increasingly risk averse.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Five Important Charts To See Right Now

    As we head into the end of 2021, here are five charts that caught our attention.

    First up, last week was one of the best weeks of the year for stocks, and that could be a good sign. "It turns out that big weeks like last week usually have the bulls smiling," explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. "23 out of the past 25 times the S&P 500 Index gained at least 3.8% in a week, it was higher three months later."

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 closed up more than 3.8% in a week on 25 occasions since March 2009, with last week being number 26. As you can see, the future returns 1-, 2-, and 3-months out are extremely strong.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Second, we are nearing the second half of December, which historically is when stocks tend to do well during this usually bullish month. In fact, returns actually get better if the S&P 500 is negative in November (check) and up more than 20% heading into the final month of the year (check).

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Third, the second year of the Presidential Cycle tends to be the worst of the four-year cycle and it is up the least often as well. Although we expect stocks to still do well in 2022, this is a reminder it likely won't be another run-away bull market like we saw in 2021.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Breaking this down by new Presidents versus re-elected Presidents and it is quite clear that year 2 under a new President historically has been quite weak. Then again, this said year 1 shouldn't be very good and that sure hasn't been the case this year.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Lastly, breaking things down by quarters, it becomes very clear the next three quarters are some of the worst of the four-year cycle, before a very strong fourth quarter.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Mid-December Low Buy Point

    December typically starts out weak. And it has. But despite the recent worrisome headlines about the Fed, inflation and Omicron stocks typically begin the yearend rally right here around mid-month. As you can see here in the chart while this year has clearly exhibited more volatility, stocks have tracked the usual December seasonal pattern of weakness in early December. So with market seasonality reasserting itself these past few months the prospects look good for the rally to resume.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Pockets of Strength in Emerging Markets

    So far this year, the US has outperformed every other country on the planet. Broadly speaking, developed economies have outperformed emerging economies. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has declined 6.8% in 2021, but this does not necessarily mean that performance across every emerging economy has been negative. Although China, Brazil, and South Korea have been particularly weak (three of the top six countries of exposure for EEM), countries like Taiwan, India, Russia, Mexico, and South Africa have experienced positive returns this year.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Just like individual sectors in the US cannot be expected to perform equally, emerging economies don't always perform in unison with each other. Differences include natural resources, political & legal structure, trading partners, and much more. Although EEM has declined on a YTD basis, the average performance of the nine countries that we tracked was a modest loss of 0.1%, and the spread between the best performer (Taiwan) and the worst (Brazil) is currently 41.3 percentage points. Moving forward, investors may want to consider selecting individual countries to gain emerging market exposure, as the broader ETFs tend to have a large concentration in just a few countries. Emerging markets are inherently higher-risk investments in comparison to developed nations due to uncertainty in future prospects, but in the long run, there are excellent opportunities within pockets of emerging markets, although not all countries will see the same performance.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Strange Bedfellows: Technology, Energy, and Consumer Staples Lead

    Technology (XLK), Energy (XLE), and Consumer Staples (XLP) tend to trade quite differently from each other for a variety of reasons. The Consumer Staples sector tends to be more defensive in nature as spending on the 'essentials' tends to hold up better in times of uncertainty than spending on more cyclical goods. XLE is largely levered to the price of energy commodities but also acts as an inflation hedge. Technology, meanwhile, tends to do best in a bullish tape as investors gravitate towards sectors with the brightest growth prospects. Because these sectors have different exposures, it is uncommon to see weeks like last week where these three sectors top the leaderboard for a given week. In fact, this has only occurred 9 times since the start of 2000, and two of those occurrences were in back-to-back weeks at the end of 2007.

    In the table below, we show each of the prior weeks that Technology (XLK), Energy (XLE), and Consumer Staples (XLP) were the three top-performing sectors (without a prior occurrence in the last three months) along with the S&P 500's performance over the last following week, month, three months, six months, and one year. In more than half of the prior eight occurrences, the equity market was lower during weeks when this occurred, and in the two prior weeks where the S&P 500 was higher, it was up less than 1%. In other words, there has never been a week like the last one where the S&P 500 was up close to 3% and these three sectors topped the leaderboard. After the eight prior occurrences, the S&P 500 was consistently higher one week and one month later with positive returns six out of seven times. Moving further out, though, the consistency of positive returns was less. In fact, three months later, the S&P 500 was only higher four out of seven times, while six and twelve months later it was higher five out of seven times.

    Somewhat ominously, the worst forward returns came after the occurrence almost exactly fourteen years ago in December 2007 when the S&P 500 went on to decline 40% in the following year. One difference between that period and last week, though, was that instead of those three sectors leading the market in a week where the S&P 500 was up over 2%, in that week the S&P 500 was down over 2%.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Here are the most notable companies reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

    Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

    Monday 12.20.21 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Monday 12.20.21 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 12.21.21 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 12.21.21 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 12.22.21 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 12.22.21 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Thursday 12.23.21 Before Market Open:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE.)

    Thursday 12.23.21 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE.)

    Friday 12.24.21 Before Market Open:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())

    (NONE. U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF CHRISTMAS DAY.)

    Friday 12.24.21 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE. U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF CHRISTMAS DAY.)

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    DISCUSS!

    What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

    I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great holiday-shortened trading week ahead r/stocks. :)

    submitted by /u/bigbear0083
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    December 17th SPY recap and next week anticipation

    Posted: 17 Dec 2021 07:54 PM PST

    Note- if anyone knows how to directly make the pictures show up on mobile PLEASE TELL ME. I have googled it like crazy and cant figure it out. Id really like to be able to do that for you guys. But i strictly use mobile.

    RECAP -Well the quad witching day and ex-dividend day was mostly uneventful and unexciting. I feel like Thursday was way more volatile than today. Nonetheless lets jump right into it. -Looking back at yesterday we had established a clear downward channel that we then saw the after/ pre market "break" except... it didnt really break it. It was just establishing a wider downward channel that we for the most part traded within. -we opened the morning just below that 465 mark. And for the most part traded sideways from 464 to 461. We saw our first bit of volatility around 1030 with a drop to 458. The rest of the day we stayed between that 464 and 460 mark. The end of the day we solidified a pretty solid downward channel. Finishing the day down 1.06% or -$4.94. For those of you who saw my quad witching post yesterday youll see that she performed as suspected.

    AFTERMARKET -We had continued the downward channel and was appearing to establish it (which i feel we rarely do in Aftermarket). But we managed to pop the candle above the resistance line. Finishing the week out at 461.56. We did see a hard rejection at the 1 hour 20 day EMA which could signal we are still leaning towards a bearish side. https://i.imgur.com/jXaoeZT.jpeg

    DAILY/ WEEKLY NEWS - Build Back Better plan still not passable at the moment it appears. From what i understand congress is now outta session for Christmas break too. -Covid cases on the rise -Feds now saying 2022 rate hikes will depend on the economy. -istanbul's stock market was halted twice due to financial crises in turkey

    DAILY POSITIONS RECAP -Overall today i again had to work night shift and really planned to sleep till power hour and make a few trades. Ended up getting up about 2pm market was about where i expected. I made 4 intraday trades today misplayed one put for -5% (got caught slipping and misread the wic that broke resistance), 2 puts for a nice 20% gain (i bailed early cause of my earlier misplay for -5% and didnt have a great feel of the chart yet), tried to scalp a pop at the end of the day on a call and didnt get it in time so closed that down 2%. -Overall an okay day. I also picked up Jan 21 464C, 465C, 468C and 470C and a Dec 27 464C. Tried to snag a Jan 21 461C too but couldn't get it to fill at closing. Overall im planning to play the bullish recovery next week. I went with Jan 21 incase we see some further dip or it takes a bit to get there. -Also picked up some Ford Jan 21 21C and Dec 27 20C. -Not gonna lie i dont like seeing stuff red like that but its within my threshold and im still bullish (for the calls to pay off at least).

    NEXT DAY/ WEEK ANTICIPATION

    1 HOUR RSI -Overall we are near 43 which is leaning towards over sold. (Bullish) https://i.imgur.com/IvBHuD4.jpeg

    1 HOUR MACD -today the MACD ran mostly flat while remain a sell. Aftermarkets push saw us get a buy signal (bullish). https://i.imgur.com/IvBHuD4.jpeg

    1 HOUR BOLLINGER -we followed just below the mid bollinger all day today and in the morning used the lower as support. After hours push was rejected by the mid bollinger. High- 466.82, mid- 462.72, low- 458.82. -overall the mid rejection is bearish. If we cant close a candle above 463 we will most likely find support near 459. https://i.imgur.com/03tZOOv.jpeg

    1 HOUR EMA -Mid day saw a 20 day EMA rejection. The EMAs continue to curl negatively and the 20 day has significantly fallen below. I would look for the 20 to curl positively and get back above the rest before i see anything bullish holding. -After hours showed a nice 20 day EMA rejection too (bearish). -https://i.imgur.com/lPOoPr4.jpeg

    DAILY MACD -We were running a buy/ flat neutral MACD for a while. However today we saw a confirmed sell signal. https://i.imgur.com/FvzAeFb.jpeg

    DAILY RSI -we are neutral at 47, however, i see a downward trend line https://i.imgur.com/FvzAeFb.jpeg

    DAILY BOLLINGER -We failed to close the candle above (however the wic did break it) mid bollinger of 463.75. Low- 451.77 and high of 475.73. https://i.imgur.com/amGSXoj.jpeg

    DAILY EMA -Much like the bollinger we failed to close the candle above the 20 day EMA (however the wic did break it). 20 day EMA sit at 464.03. The 50 day EMA did hold as support at 459.83 however we saw the wic too break that. If we continue downward 100 day EMA (next logical support) is at 450.61. https://i.imgur.com/HBsxsh8.jpeg

    DAILY CHANNEL -Overall we had been running in the kid section of the channel. However now we are appearing to drop below the middle of the channel. Lower support line (red dotted line) sits right around 448. https://i.imgur.com/k2xO2lJ.jpeg

    NEXT WEEK OUTLOOK/ POSITIONS -Overall we are on the hourly looking a little more bullish, however, we are sitting pretty bearish on the daily. -We have a key resistance area of 463- 464. IF we can close a candle completely above 464 monday we could see a complete reversal and start working back towards 470. -There is a very real scenario where we trade completely sideways monday too. There is some uncertainty surrounding covid right now which may change some of direction. Key support area (based off my support lines) 460 (50 day EMA) --> 458.6 --> 457.6 --> 454 (heavy support here from 10/4, 10/6, 12/3). Doomsday 448 (lower red dotted line for major channel). -As i mentioned i grabbed some 464C, 465C, 468C and 470C. My goal today was to play the dip by loading up in some discounted calls which most were 15-20% down today. -My feeling is by end of next week we should be back up above 470.

    submitted by /u/DaddyDersch
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    How long would it take to break even if averaging down on S&P 500 after buying the top of the 2007-2009 crash?

    Posted: 18 Dec 2021 05:22 AM PST

    Title says it all.

    Is there a tool that we could input the variables, say, if I put $50,000 in an account that holds S&P 500 at the top of the market in 2007 and henceforth contributed $833 a month to that account ($10,000/yr), how long would it take to break even?

    I have not been able to find an easy to use tool to calculate this, but thought it'd interesting to find out.

    submitted by /u/rob079
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    Barron's top picks for 2022 (IBM what?)

    Posted: 17 Dec 2021 05:31 PM PST

    I'm most surprised by the IBM pick. Barron's called it "baby Microsoft" and:

    Under CEO Arvind Krishna, IBM has spun off a pedestrian business of managing data centers into Kyndryl Holdings (KD), refocused on the cloud and artificial intelligence, and vowed to start growing again for the first time in about a decade.

    Wall Street is skeptical about IBM's prospects, but one bull, BofA Global Research's Wamsi Mohan, has compared Krishna to Satya Nadella, the Microsoft CEO who transformed the company over the past seven years.

    IBM, whose shares trade around $126, is valued at 11 times projected 2022 earnings. And it has the highest dividend yield in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, at 5.3%.

    If Krishna is successful in boosting sales and margins while making IBM relevant again, there could be a lot of upside in a largely forgotten stock.

    Is IBM really a hidden gem or is it rightfully forgotten? Here are the rest of the picks:

    • Royal Dutch Shell (ticker: RDS.B)
    • IBM (IBM),
    • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
    • Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ)
    • Amazon.com (AMZN)
    • Visa (V)
    • Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A and BRK.B)
    • Nordstrom (JWN)
    • AT&T (T)
    • General Motors (GM)
    submitted by /u/r2002
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    Here is a Market Recap for today Friday, December 17, 2021

    Posted: 17 Dec 2021 02:08 PM PST

    PsychoMarket Recap - Friday, December 17, 2021

    Stocks extended Thursday's losses, with the market ending a volatile week in the red as market participants continued to digest ongoing risk surrounding the Omicron variant and the Fed's new monetary policy, which signaled a faster rate of taper and interest rate hikes next year.

    Notable Numbers Today

    • S&P 500 (SPY): -1.02%
    • Nasdaq (QQQ): -0.50%
    • Dow Jones (DIA): -1.42%
    • Russell 2000 (IWM): +0.92%
    • Volatility Index: +3.19%
    • JP Morgan (JPM): -2.28%
    • Oracle (ORCL): -6.39%
    • AMC: +19.22%
    • FedEx (FDX): 4.95%
    • Rivian (RIVN): -10.26%

    The main focus of market participants remains on the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision, with the Central Bank doubling the pace of tapering and suggestions that the interest rate may be raised three times in 2022.

    The potential for higher rates continues to weigh heavily on technology and growth stocks whose valuations rely heavily on future earnings potential. In the last month, the Nasdaq has fallen by -3.43% and the Russell 2000, which tracks the performance of small-caps, fell 8.32% in the last month.

    On the other hand, cyclical stocks in the energy and financials sectors outperformed on Thursday, with the prospects of higher interest rates and stronger growth seen as benefiting these sectors. The Dow Jones (DIA) has only lost -1.23% in the month and has been trending upwards in December. As always, it's important to balance a portfolio with both growth and value stocks.

    Troy Gayeski, Chief Market Strategist at F5 Investments, said "The thing investors have to understand is, we're going through a major transition in monetary policy. The Fed has been running emergency policies arguably far longer than they should have been, and as that money supply growth slows down as they ease off the balance sheet expansion and ultimately hike next year, one would at least expect more volatility in markets. And that's really what we've been seeing the last month."

    Highlights

    • The Biden administration on Friday recommended the Federal Communications Commission grant Alphabet's Google and Facebook-parent Meta licenses for an undersea cable.
    • The companies entered into national security agreements to protect data on the Pacific Light Cable Network system, an undersea fiber optic cable system that will connect the United States, Taiwan and the Philippines.
    • Tesla Inc was hit by a lawsuit over CEO Elon Musk's social media posts including his Twitter poll on stock sales that pulled down its stock prices. Investor David Wagner called for access to internal documents to investigate whether Tesla and Musk failed to adhere to fiduciary duties
    • Rivian stock gapped down another roughly 11% after the company reported earnings that showed steep losses and said it expects to fall "a few hundred vehicles short of its 1,200 production target for this year.
    • Alibaba Deputy CFO Toby Xu, making his first major public remarks since being named this month to take over as CFO, said that international e-commerce "will become one of the key growth drivers", adding that 57% of revenue for Cainiao, Alibaba's logistics unit, comes from overseas.
    • Reddit announced it was filing for an IPO with an estimated $15 billion valuation. I love the platform but I think they'll have a hard time monetizing users.
    • Rivian also announced it was planning to build a new factory in Georgia in order to boost production
    • Kellogg's has reached a new tentative agreement with its 1,400 striking cereal plant workers that could bring an end to the strike that began Oct. 5.
    submitted by /u/psychotrader00
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    Where do you all read about stock suggestions?

    Posted: 18 Dec 2021 05:00 AM PST

    Long time /r/financialindependence bro here ready to diversify out from VTSAX. I have a stable income, max out my 401k contribution annually and feel like I'm in a good position to take on some higher risk/reward options on my IRA and after tax accounts. I dabble in crypto and ARK ETF's and am quite fond of the approach there and the fact that it's managed by others…

    What is your 101 guide to stock / ETF picking? Which, if any, of the paid services are worthwhile?

    submitted by /u/Soggy-Wheaties
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    What Are The Most Overvalued Stocks And How Can You Tell?

    Posted: 18 Dec 2021 01:32 AM PST

    As a newish investor I'm trying to crack the code on what information there is on a company being overvalued and how I can notice that for future potential investments. Preferably UK stocks as I'm a UK company investor however I guess it doesn't matter as the information is the same for all companies.

    submitted by /u/Declans-Sunlight
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    How are millions of shares being traded after hours without moving the price?

    Posted: 17 Dec 2021 01:11 PM PST

    I noticed this with Starbucks stock. At the end of the day there will be millions in volume but no change in price either way. Today there was 3 million shares immediately after hours with no change. It's happened the last few days that I've noticed.

    submitted by /u/FatDrawer
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    LBO for public company?

    Posted: 18 Dec 2021 03:28 AM PST

    Hi,

    Can someone please refer me to a resource/tell me how to conduct an LBO valuation for a public company?

    ​

    Also if a company has negative earnings, is the only difference the fact that I need to use EV/Rev instead of EV/EBITDA?

    submitted by /u/ghdsvor
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    can someone eli5 calls?

    Posted: 18 Dec 2021 04:54 AM PST

    I'm kind of new to options. I get puts. But i'm a bit confused when it comes to calls. The main thing im confused by is all the pages i go on to stress that you can make more money and own more shares with the same amount as someone who just invested but how is that so?

    Guy 1 invests 50k in a stock at 50. 1000 shares. it goes up to 100. he sells. 100k. 50k profit.

    guy 2 buys a call contract with a SP of 50 at $2 premium. so 200. 10 contracts. 1000 shares. 2k. it goes up to 100. he exercises. spends 50k to buy the shares then sells for 100k. $48k profit

    so the investor made a little bit more than the options trader. and his journey was much more simple. so whats the pro of a call? whats the point in them? are options traders less confident in the stock going up than the investor?

    submitted by /u/TheFitz07
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    How much of your own money "should" it take you to hit 100k portfolio?

    Posted: 17 Dec 2021 07:29 AM PST

    Assuming there are a million variables; (how much cash you have on hand at the start, how much you can pump in the market every year, etc) but my personal thoughts are I expect to put about 70k+ in over the next few years and am hoping with good management I hit 100k. I'm a construction worker not a banker or lawyer I don't make a ton, but I'm trying to get to that next tier eventually. It's a family business so I'm not leaving construction, and it does well for us. But why not strive for more right? Interested to hear from some of you guys.

    submitted by /u/-TDOGG-
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    J.P.Morgan Securities to pay $200 million to settle U.S. regulatory charges on record-keeping lapses

    Posted: 17 Dec 2021 12:01 PM PST

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. regulators fined J.P. Morgan Securities $200 million for "widespread" failures to preserve staff communications on personal mobile devices, messaging apps and emails, and are probing similar lapses at other financial institutions, they said on Friday.

    JPMorgan Chase & Co's broker-dealer subsidiary admitted to the charges and to violating securities laws. It also agreed to implement robust improvements to compliance policies, in addition to a fine, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said in its $125 million order.

    The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday it had fined the firm $75 million for the same issues.

    "The firm's actions meaningfully impacted the SEC's ability to investigate potential violations of the federal securities laws," the SEC said.

    JPMorgan declined to comment.

    The penalty is one of the first major enforcement actions brought under SEC Chair Gary Gensler, who was appointed by Democratic President Joe Biden and who has pledged to crack down on misconduct by Wall Street companies.

    The SEC said it discovered that J.P. Morgan Securities had been violating rules that require firms to preserve written business communications when the broker was unable to produce records during the course of other investigations.

    As a result of the JPMorgan probe, the SEC has opened investigations into other firms' records-keeping practices, it said, confirming an October Reuters report https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-sec-wallstreet-communication-idCNL1N2R70P2.

    "This is an issue that we're seeing at other firms," said an SEC official, adding that "individuals and entities that self-report" will fare better in penalty negotiations.

    From at least January 2018 through November 2020, J.P. Morgan Securities' employees often communicated about securities business matters on their personal devices, using text messages, WhatsApp, and personal email accounts, the SEC said.

    None of these records were preserved. The lapses were institution-wide and known to senior management, who also used personal devices to discuss business matters, the SEC said.

    It added that J.P. Morgan Securities agreed to retain a compliance consultant and to conduct a comprehensive review of its policies and procedures relating to the retention of electronic communications found on personal devices, among other remedies.

    ​

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/j-p-morgan-securities-pay-133350497.html

    submitted by /u/MyFunGa
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    I will be getting 850 shares of stock. I need help.

    Posted: 17 Dec 2021 08:58 AM PST

    The company I work for decided to give employees some stock in the company, I'm assuming as a bonus.

    I've never fucked with stocks before, and quite honestly I don't really understand how they work.

    I will be given 850 shares at $11.xx (roughly $9k total).

    I don't really know the stipulations or exact details behind it. I was only told that it will be happening.

    What are some things to know, or questions to ask when we have a meeting discussing it?

    submitted by /u/xAsilos
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    Explosion yesterday at Danimer Scientific (DNMR) facility in Kentucky

    Posted: 17 Dec 2021 08:18 AM PST

    Not in the news or on FB yet as far as I know.

    Investigation and property damage assessment is ongoing today. Water damage probably as bad as the fire.

    Plastic shower curtains were placed over a machine to prevent outside debris from getting into the product. This shielded the fire from the sprinkler systems and delayed the alarm until the curtains had melted from the heat.

    No serious injuries but they won't be making product for a while. Bummer because apparently there are/were some cool partnerships being announced in January.

    Anyway, I'm stepping away from this company for now. If I knew how options worked I'd probably buy puts.

    submitted by /u/Nachie
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    Question about -ws stocks

    Posted: 17 Dec 2021 02:43 PM PST

    Yesterday a bowling company went public under the ticker bowl. They also have another ticker called bowl-ws that is at a different price.

    What is the difference? What does the -ws signify? I am able to find several other stocks that are listed the same way but can not find anything on what the difference is.

    submitted by /u/solidairplane71
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    Should I hold cash or invest for 1-2 year timeline?

    Posted: 17 Dec 2021 05:41 AM PST

    So I am planning to buy a home in 1-2 year time. Would it be wise to invest the already saved cash + regular monthly savings into ETF keeping 1-2 year timeline in mind? I can manage upto 5-10% max depreciation risk. So what is my probability of making a similar upside?

    What is my best alternative given the timeline?

    submitted by /u/FirstYellow4
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    Advice on some fun/learning money

    Posted: 17 Dec 2021 11:15 PM PST

    Hey everyone,

    I haven't been able to find all these answers in past posts. I'm a college student (20yo) invested 100% into globally diversified funds and I'd like to take a couple hundred bucks (no more than 5%) to find some good buisnesses with cashflow in the Buffetty kinda inspired way. I'm wondering first what actual numbers to compare when people value buisnesses, I'm sure it's not exact because if it was everyone could do it.

    My goal isn't explicitly to beat the market as the amount I'd buy is negligable, mainly to buy buisnesses I like, read about and follow them, and see how it does over time.

    Some I've looked into are

    Apple, Berkshire, Pepsi/Coke, Intel (big on this one), Alibaba (l don't understand their offshore structure though which is a little suspicious), stuff like that. In other words I'm avoiding typical meme growth like Tesla and Square.

    TLDR on questions:

    1) How do I value stocks in an easy to follow way for a decent estimate?

    2) What are some other names I should consider? And what do you think of those I've listed?

    Thanks!

    submitted by /u/Luke49368
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    Protective collar on dividend stocks?

    Posted: 17 Dec 2021 07:27 PM PST

    Let's say I found a high dividend stock and wanted to invest a big part of my portfolio into it while being afraid of losing money in the event that it decreases in value. Couldn't I simply make a protective collar on that position (buying protective OTM put + selling covered OTM call to pay for the put) to make it so that I do not have to worry about any decrease in value of my position?

    submitted by /u/SomeKindOfSorbet
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