Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Dec 09, 2021 |
- r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Dec 09, 2021
- Gamestop releases earnings report for Q3
- Credit Suisse sees S&P 500 reaching 5200 in 2022, citing economic growth
- Buying stock gift for Marshallese kid
- ROKU rallies 20% on multiyear agreement with Google to keep YouTube on streaming platform
- I wanna talk EV’s - educate us
- Lucid Group (LCID) Announces Proposed Convertible Senior Notes Offering
- Fitch lowers China Evergrande rating to 'restricted default'
- Does anyone here have a Bloomberg Terminal? Does it have company revenue estimates going out 5 years into the future?
- $intc stock owners and Mobileye spinoff
- r/Stocks Daily Thread on Meme Stocks Thursday - Dec 09, 2021
- Canada joins US in potential to boycott winter Olympics. If there is an economic retaliation. How badly could it hurt the stock market?
- Name your top 3 "hot takes" of stocks that will underperform or worse next year
- Google Backed Company, Planet ($PL) Goes Public.
- Winc Inc releases earnings report for Q3
- Did you get banned from IPO buying for selling early on Robinhood?
- Questions about leveraged etf
- Shift technologies
- Watching Enphase recently
- Dropbox: An undervalued cloud company
- I need a corporate raider
| r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Dec 09, 2021 Posted: 09 Dec 2021 02:30 AM PST This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on stock options, but if options aren't your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against options here and not in the current post. Some helpful day to day links, including news:
Required info to start understanding options:
See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki: If you have a basic question, for example "what is delta," then google "investopedia delta" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned. See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. [link] [comments] |
| Gamestop releases earnings report for Q3 Posted: 08 Dec 2021 01:12 PM PST Revenue for the quarter: $1.297B vs $1.19B expected EPS: $(1.39) vs. $(0.22) expected THIRD QUARTER OVERVIEW Net sales were $1.297 billion for the quarter, compared to $1.005 billion in the prior year's third quarter. Sales attributable to new and expanded brand relationships, such as Samsung, LG, Razer, Vizio and others, contributed to the Company's growth in the quarter. Inventory was $1.141 billion at the close of the quarter, compared to $861 million at the close of the prior year's third quarter, reflecting the Company's focus on front-loading investments in inventory to meet increased customer demand and mitigate supply chain issues. Ended the period with cash and cash equivalents of $1.413 billion as well as no debt other than a $46.2 million low-interest, unsecured term loan associated with the French government's response to COVID-19. Established new offices in Seattle, Washington and Boston, Massachusetts, which are technology hubs with established talent markets. Secured a new $500 million ABL facility, which closed in November just after the end of the third quarter, with improved liquidity and terms, including reduced borrowing costs, lighter covenants and additional flexibility. Shares are currently down ~4% in AH trading. [link] [comments] |
| Credit Suisse sees S&P 500 reaching 5200 in 2022, citing economic growth Posted: 08 Dec 2021 06:05 PM PST
What's your take on these bullish projections? Will we go into recession or is CS correct? Are you looking to rotate from tech into cyclicals? If so, which cyclicals? [link] [comments] |
| Buying stock gift for Marshallese kid Posted: 09 Dec 2021 12:39 AM PST I'm in Kwajalein and am sponsoring a 5 yo kid for X-mass and want to hook this kid up. One issue with buying gifts of value for this kid is the class system. His stuff may be "shared" by family or other individuals. How can I buy a stock in his name and set up a way for him to get it when 18? [link] [comments] |
| ROKU rallies 20% on multiyear agreement with Google to keep YouTube on streaming platform Posted: 08 Dec 2021 12:30 PM PST The deal will allow the 56.4 million active Roku accounts to continue to watch YouTube and YouTube TV, Google's livestreaming service, without disruption. Google had previously threatened to pull both YouTube and YouTube TV off Roku on Dec. 9. The carriage fight caught the attention of Congress, which has been attempting to rein in the power of big technology companies like Google. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/08/roku-reaches-agreement-with-google-to-keep-youtube.html [link] [comments] |
| I wanna talk EV’s - educate us Posted: 09 Dec 2021 03:53 AM PST First off, i'm not going to pretend like I know what i'm talking about so I need you to fill me in. Who are the major players (excluding China companies)
With everything we know about the potential in EV's, world changing, they have tons and tons of potential and it's something that's not a question of if but a question of when. Tesla was one of the first if not first in modern times to go for this and like everyone else they are considered overpriced but maybe more so than everyone else. Rivian is backed by amazon and is hoping solar panels will be successful and a major focus of their strategy. Overpriced? Sure but they're also at an affordable investor price and haven't been around long enough for the market to have much foresight of their capabilities. Are they selling even one car in 2021? I don't know, you tell me, seriously I don't know. Apple is Apple. There's not much to talk about other than the golden rule "never sell Apple". We know one thing, they're quiet, and the quiet ones are always dangerous. Everyone else - not interested. They might be safe bets but I want the best bet with the most return even if it comes at the most risk. What are your thoughts? What are your plays? Major catalysts in the sectors? Talk to me about anything EV and anything in this sector? Post finished. Why did I make this? Cause this is so f'ing exciting and i'm sitting on the toilet and I have to get ready to work my crappy job. So I appreciate everyone's input! [link] [comments] |
| Lucid Group (LCID) Announces Proposed Convertible Senior Notes Offering Posted: 08 Dec 2021 02:51 PM PST NEWARK, Calif., Dec. 8, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Lucid Group, Inc. ("Lucid")(Nasdaq: LCID) today announced its intention to offer, subject to market and other conditions, $1,750,000,000 aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2026 (the "notes") in a private offering to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"). Lucid also expects to grant the initial purchasers of the notes an option, for settlement within a period of 13 days from, and including, the date the notes are first issued, to purchase up to an additional $262,500,000 principal amount of notes. $LCID is down 6.3% after hours. [link] [comments] |
| Fitch lowers China Evergrande rating to 'restricted default' Posted: 09 Dec 2021 02:23 AM PST Fitch Ratings on Thursday lowered the credit rating on embattled home builder China Evergrande to restricted default from C. The downgrades reflect the non-payment of coupons due Nov. 6 for its Tianji subsidiary of $645 million and $590 million after the grace period lapsed on Dec. 6. Fitch said the company did not respond to its request for confirmation on the coupon payments. "Failure to make coupon payments within the grace period is consistent with Fitch's definition of an 'RD' rating, as the company has experienced an uncured payment default on a material financial obligation but has not yet entered into bankruptcy filings, administration, receivership, liquidation, or other formal winding-up procedures, and has not otherwise ceased operating," the rating agency said. [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 08 Dec 2021 11:29 PM PST I'm trying to buy screenshots of future company revenue estimates (from the Bloomberg Terminal) over Fiverr but am getting told that the Bloomberg Terminal's estimates only go out 2 years. Is that true? I always thought Bloomberg Terminal estimates went out 5 years. If it's true that the Bloomberg Terminal's revenue estimates only go out 2 years, then that's not really unique. You can find the revenue estimates of a company for the next 2 years on almost any online resource. [link] [comments] |
| $intc stock owners and Mobileye spinoff Posted: 09 Dec 2021 01:19 AM PST With the Mobileye spinoff, does anything happen for $intc stock owners? For example, do they get shares in Mobileye automatically? Or, can they buy Mobileye shares before public listing? From my understanding, $intc will lose value with the spinoff, since Mobileye is no longer part of the conglomerate. [link] [comments] |
| r/Stocks Daily Thread on Meme Stocks Thursday - Dec 09, 2021 Posted: 09 Dec 2021 04:00 AM PST The meme stock scheduled posts will run Mon to Fri and won't be a sticky; you're probably seeing this because automod sent you here or you woke up early Wall St time; good morning! Welcome traders who just can't help them selves discuss the same exact stock that's been discussed 100s of times a day. I get it, you want to talk about what's popular, what's hot, and that 1.. single.. stock you like.. well here you go! Some helpful links just for you:
An important message from our mod u/TCGYT regarding meme stocks. Lastly if you need professional help:
[link] [comments] |
| Posted: 08 Dec 2021 02:34 PM PST For example, China introduces limit/higher tax on exporting. Which could hurt the supply chain for many things related to tech, parts etc. Could this cause a "mini" market crash? The reality is... this will also hurt China economy (perhaps it will sting a little more). But I just can't see China accepting a boycott and doing nothing They will likely take it as a slap on the face. Anyways, in the event the retaliation is economic related.... s & p 500 gets affected etc. What would be considered a "safety net" during this possibility. Investing in local banks? local real estate? military defense related companies? [link] [comments] |
| Name your top 3 "hot takes" of stocks that will underperform or worse next year Posted: 08 Dec 2021 10:21 PM PST Name your top 3 hot takes of stocks that will underperform or worse next year. For me #1 is Facebook. I have my doubts on how big this Metaverse play actually is going to end up being, seems like it was a good diversion from the issues they were dealing with. At #2 is Disney. Looking at their streaming numbers, it's just not there given how Wall Street is looking at it, and that's how the stock got to the levels it did during COVID. Here's a great article from someone who tracks this stuff professionally https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2021/12/07/wall-street-expectations-present-new-challenges-for-disney/?sh=1e09cc882857 And #3 Upstart. Despite the hype, I'm just not sure I see the potential this thing has going into next year with much more market turmoil incoming. [link] [comments] |
| Google Backed Company, Planet ($PL) Goes Public. Posted: 08 Dec 2021 12:22 PM PST Planet is a leading provider of daily data and insights about Earth. The company, which has major investor Google, began trading under the new symbol today $PL. This is NOT a low float, high redemption DeSPAC. Low redemptions means investors actually want to hold it. Founded in 2010 by three NASA scientists, Planet designs, builds, and operates the largest Earth observation fleet of imaging satellites, capturing and compiling data from over 3 million images per day. Planet provides mission-critical data, advanced insights, and software solutions to over 700 customers, comprising the world's leading agriculture, forestry, intelligence, education and finance companies and government agencies, enabling users to simply and effectively derive unique value from satellite imagery. If this went public via a traditional IPO, it would have skyrocketed in its debut. For now, it's hanging around $11/share. The company will release earnings next week. Trading could get wild. It's worth a look. Taking a stab here on the December 12.50 calls. Commons and warrants are more attractive for those wanting to take a much less risky route. [link] [comments] |
| Winc Inc releases earnings report for Q3 Posted: 08 Dec 2021 02:32 PM PST Third Quarter 2021 Highlights Compared to the Third Quarter of 2020
"Third quarter results were in line with our expectations as strong growth in wholesale more than offset tough comparisons in our DTC business," said Geoff McFarlane, Chief Executive Officer. "Winc's wholesale channel has been strong throughout 2021 with revenues increasing 106.9% in the third quarter of 2021 compared to the third quarter of 2020, 96.4% in the first nine months of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020, and 200% on a two-year stack basis. New retailer relationships are resulting in the rapid expansion of the number of locations where customers can find Winc products while performance continues to improve at existing retail partners. Recent placements at Walmart, Target and Trader Joe's helped grow our active retail account base to 11,476, and we believe that continued investment in these relationships will allow us to reach our goal of 50,000 active retail accounts over the next several years." "Our existing portfolio of 5 core brands continues to grow, reaching 44,797 cases in the third quarter of 2021 and strong performance from Pizzalto, Les Hauts De Lagarde, and Cherries and Rainbows, which leads us to believe that each will become core brands by the end of 2022," Winc's President Brian Smith added. "The additional scale of these three products would bring Winc's ever-growing and diversified suite of proprietary core brands to a total of 8. Our flagship brand, Summer Water, continues to see strong overall sales and retail placement growth. Of all rosé wines reported on in the Nielsen Wine Report, Summer Water has the 4th highest sales growth rate and second smallest all-commodity volume, suggesting that the brand is under-penetrated and has continued growth opportunity through door expansion, especially considering it's highly competitive growth rate at existing placements." For full report you can take a look here [link] [comments] |
| Did you get banned from IPO buying for selling early on Robinhood? Posted: 08 Dec 2021 07:34 PM PST Robinhood warns you that if you sell an IPO share right away, aka "flipping", you could be banned from being able to buy shares before IPO on the app. I will be buying my first pre-IPO shares tomorrow morning, and was wondering about this. If the stock rises 50%, I would be dumb to not sell a bit of it. What have your experiences been with "flipping" pre-IPO shares? [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 09 Dec 2021 01:04 AM PST Hi guys! So I was pointed to u pro by a professional, but as a leveraged etf it's not designed to be a buy and hold security, right? A lot of times I see the biggest change in the spy and many stocks in the gap, and it makes sense to me to hold overnight, but leveraged etf's have had a way of jumping up and biting my account (dust and nugt). Are there any more advanced strategies that work with these that I'm not thinking of? [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 08 Dec 2021 05:01 PM PST Can anyone explain to me why this stock is under performing? Growth looks good and the company seems to be ran well. 8% jump in stock today but I still don't get the negative sentiment with this company. 20% increase in internet traffic and better customer reviews than Carvana. I'm dumb and can't wrap my head around it. Can someone help me understand? [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 09 Dec 2021 01:05 AM PST Enphase has been on my buy list for a while and when it dipped Monday I picked up a $230 call for January 2023. I've been thinking about picking up shares as well but have pretty solid exposure through ETFs. I remain very confident in the name as they continue to grow earnings year over year, in a space that I think is going to continue growing. They are also a number one holding in many green ETFs which goes to show how dominant they are in the space. [link] [comments] |
| Dropbox: An undervalued cloud company Posted: 09 Dec 2021 04:07 AM PST One of the most overlooked stocks on the American stock market is Dropbox. I personally love it. It's got a lot of potential and the recent drop in price opens up an excellent opportunity for new investors. Dropbox at a glanceSo, why should we care about Dropbox? Simple. It's a well-performing business that keeps beating analyst expectations. In fact, Dropbox does not have a single earnings or revenue expectations miss since they floated on the stock market! Yes, Dropbox's growth may be slowing down a tiny, tiny bit, but it is still double digits. This growth is likely led by the overwhelming switch since last year to working from home. A lot of people are also starting their own small businesses and they need solutions like Dropbox to help them organise their files, documents and so on. So, the question is, what does Dropbox actually do? Their flagship product, Dropbox, is a cloud storage solution similar to Google Drive, One Drive, iCloud and so on. Essentially, you can store files on Dropbox and synchronise and share them across PC, mobile, tablets and so on. However, Dropbox is actively striving to become a workspace platform or a smart workplace. Over the last three years they have also acquired HelloSign and DocSend that provide even more capabilities to its users. HelloSign provides the ability to send, receive and manage legally binding electronic signatures, whereas DocSend allows you to securely share documents with other people or businesses, track their usage, provide NDAs, meaning Non-Disclosure Agreements, eSignatures, watermarking and so on. Overall, these three services provide the backbone of the Dropbox product offering. However, Dropbox continues to look for new ways to improve and expand and have recently introduced three new features: Capture, Replay and Shop. I am really interested in the Shop feature, I think that has a lot of potential, but it's still too early to tell. If it goes well though, it could become a very successful marketplace for digital content. Earnings, revenue and key metricsThis all sounds really good, but let's look at the numbers. Always look at the numbers before you invest especially these days when there are so many companies that talk a lot, but have nothing to show for it. Like a lot of modern tech companies, the Dropbox business model revolves around subscriptions and that means it is relatively predictable. As long as users are satisfied with the product, they will continue using and paying for it. In Q3 of 2021, Dropbox had over 700 million registered users with 16.49 million paying users up from 15.25 million last year and those include both individuals and business subscriptions. Dropbox's business model focuses on converting existing users into paying users and we can see it's obviously working from this increase of 8.1% in the number of paying users per year. What Dropbox also does is upsell to existing users and nudge them to upgrade to premium plans, purchase additional licences and so on. As they say though, the proof is in the pudding. Over the last year, Dropbox has managed to increase the average revenue per user to $133.79 compared to $128.03 last year, which is a steady increase of 4.5%. When combined with the increase in paying users, that results in an increasingly profitable business and, as a result, Dropbox shows consistent growth every single quarter. Dropbox had 9 consecutive quarters of rising earnings, but broke their streak in the latest one. Q3 of 2021 showed a tiiiny dip from $0.40 to $0.37 dollars EPS, but that is still up 42% since last year. On the flipside, their revenue has grown every single consecutive quarter since they floated on the market with an average revenue growth of 12.5% to 19% year-on-year. Dropbox's revenue for Q3 was $550.2 million compared to $487 million last year so an increase of 12.9%. We can also see a decent increase in Dropbox's free cash flow of 18.4% to $221.5 million in Q3 of 2021. ExpectationsGoing forward, analysts expect that Dropbox will see a 9.8% increase in revenue next year and a 6% increase in earnings. This doesn't sound like much, but it follows after one of Dropbox's best years so far. Plus, analysts keep pushing their expectations up, which, again, means that Dropbox is performing better than expected. That's important because that's what drives the share price up! There have been 7 Q4 earnings revisions in the last 90 days and all 7 of them have been upward revisions. There has also been 9 revenue revision for Dropbox's full-year 2021 revenue in the last 90 days, 8 of which have been upward revisions. Overall, this bodes well for Dropbox's performance. Leaner operationsAlso, I've noticed something which a lot of investors and analysts are overlooking right now, but it is extremely, extremely important in my opinion. The operating expenses of Dropbox have barely moved since December 2019 while their revenue has grown by 26% and their free cash flow has increased by 80%. Lean operations are what good tech businesses are all about so this is a really, really big plus for Dropbox in my books. Dropbox has high gross margins, currently 81% compared to the 80% last year and improving operating margins with 29.3% right now versus 23.0% last year. Founder is still in businessAnother bullish argument for Dropbox is the fact that the founder Andrew Houston still owns almost 30% of Dropbox. That's a massive stake and shows his commitment to the company even though he did sell 9% of his total shares on 17th Nov. That's his only sale in the last 2 years though. Founders having a big stake in the company usually means that the company is still in the growth stage and the share price still has room to grow. Financial positionThen, let's take a look at Dropbox's cash position. They are flush with cash, absolutely loaded! They currently have $1.93 billion in cash and cash equivalents which is more than their debt of $1.37 billion which means that Dropbox is in a really good financial position considering that they are also profitable. Plus, Dropbox is not actually paying any interest on its long-term debt! The reason why is because they raised money using convertible notes without any interest. Instead, those notes give the loaner the opportunity to convert the notes to shares of Dropbox at the price of $35.35 and $38.25 per share. So, what is Dropbox doing with its cash? Well, first of all, they have been buying back shares. In fact, Dropbox has managed to reduce shares outstanding by 8.6% since the start of 2020. Just during the last quarter, they've bought back $181 million worth of shares! Second, they're using that cash to acquire new companies to fuel additional growth. Acquisitions can be a double-edged sword sometimes, but Dropbox has made it work so far. As I mentioned before, Dropbox bought HelloSign in February 2019 and DocSend in March 2021. The two acquisitions boosted Dropbox's capabilities and now allow them to offer a complete, full suite of self-serve products to its users. Alright, I hope that by now we all have a pretty good understanding of what is the current situation with Dropbox. Two main questions now remain. One, is Dropbox trading at a good price. Two, what do we need to watch with Dropbox? ValuationLet's look at the valuation first. Currently, Dropbox trades for a PE of 17.6 calculated using the adjusted EPS compared to the sector median of 25.3. Dropbox's forward PE is 16.5 which again lower than the sector median of 24.96. Finally, its PEG ratio is 0.53 and anything under 1 means that the stock is undervalued. The price-to-sales ratio of Dropbox is 4.66 compared to the sector's 4.08 and their forward price-to-sales are 4.36 compared to 4.14 so that's slightly higher than the median, but not by much. Dropbox also said that they expect $1 billion dollars in free cash flow by 2024, which gives us a forward price-to-free cash flow ratio of just 9 which is really, really good. Overall, Dropbox looks undervalued by several indicators right now. In terms of valuation, SimplyWallstreed gives Dropbox a fair value of $53.5 dollars based on its free cash flow. My personal EPS valuation of Dropbox gives me a more conservative figure of $40.2 dollars. Finbox's 10-year Gordon Growth model gives Dropbox an average valuation of $35.4 dollars which is near the analyst consensus of $34.5. Obviously, these are not precise targets, but the main point is that Dropbox currently appears really undervalued gives its current price of $24.7 dollars. The price of Dropbox surprisingly dipped 20% over the last 5 weeks which was strange. There was no actual obvious reason for it as Dropbox reported strong results and actually raised guidance going forward. To me, that's just a great opportunity to get a great stock at a discount! What to watch with DropboxBefore we finish this off, I want to mention a few things that we need to keep an eye on with Dropbox. First of all, we need to monitor the number of paying users and the average revenue per user as we need to see steady increases there for Dropbox to justify the investment. If those numbers start to stagnate, it may be time to get out of Dropbox. Another figure to watch is the stock-based compensation. In 2020, the total stock-based compensation was $505.9 million which was more than the adjusted earnings of $409.1 million for the entire year! Dropbox is obviously no longer a startup, but it is still in a growth stage so that type of stock-based compensation is normal, but it's still good to keep an eye on it as it dilutes stock ownership. A lot of people have missed the fact that Dropbox has stock-compensation clauses for its CEO, Andrew Houston, connected to its stock price. More precisely, those stock prices are $30, $35, $40, basically on every $5 dollar increment so the more Dropbox's price goes up, the more stock-based compensation Andrew Houston will get. Finally, it looks like institutions are bullish on DBX, but a bit less so than before. The current put-to-call ratio is only 0.8 and that's up from 0.42 during the previous quarter. Essentially, a put-to-call ratio below 1 means that funds think Dropbox will go up. If that ratio goes significantly above 1, then that's one sign of bearish sentiment on the side of funds. Also, it looks like the institutional ownership of Dropbox has gone done from 84% in the last quarter to 76.6% right now. Personally, I think that's because Dropbox hit an all-time high in the latest quarter and funds took the opportunity to take some profits so I'm not that worried about the reducing ownership. So, that's all I have to say about Dropbox for now. What do you think? Are you bullish like me? [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 09 Dec 2021 03:13 AM PST I own near 10% of a 3rd party corporate trust, which is not a corporation. The trust is in bankruptcy and not paying dividends. Since I'm the largest share holder, I'm entitled to profits. Is this correct? Can I hostilely take over the company and put myself on the payroll? Fire people? [link] [comments] |
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