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    Value Investing Best recent books about investing?

    November 03, 2021

    Value Investing Best recent books about investing?

    Best recent books about investing?

    Posted: 03 Nov 2021 12:50 AM PDT

    I have read all the traditional books about investing. Now i am looking for something more modern. That talks about investing in these low interest rate enviroment and stretched out valuations. How has valuation and security analysis changed and what exactly is a high pe ratio or other relative ratios in these times.

    submitted by /u/pidge11
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    Fed RRP refresher

    Posted: 02 Nov 2021 08:21 AM PDT

    An Interview with Mark Zuckerberg

    Posted: 02 Nov 2021 04:49 AM PDT

    Tollymore Partners Q3 2021 Letter

    Posted: 02 Nov 2021 04:36 AM PDT

    Alta Fox Capital - Presentation on Victoria PLC

    Posted: 02 Nov 2021 04:38 AM PDT

    ($SFL) - Q3 2021 Forecast

    Posted: 02 Nov 2021 09:48 AM PDT

    Abstract

    Due to the ongoing increases in cargo vessel charter rates during 2021, it is my belief that SFL is significantly undervalued relative to its current price, and will continue to outperform analyst expectations in Q3 2021. My model indicates they will achieve earnings of $0.28/share on a recurring basis which is a moderate increase over last quarter, but without the deluge of impairments and one-time expenses they saw during Q2. It is my belief that an increase in the dividend will drive the price over $10/share following their Q3 earnings announcement. My target price of $12/share, to be realized between the announcement of Q3 2021 earnings and Q1 2022.

    Summary of Estimates

    Total charter hire of $151.4M in Q3 vs $141.5M in Q2.

    Recurring earnings of $36.0M (~$0.28) in Q2 vs $29.0M (~$0.23/share) in Q2.

    Non-cash/non-recurring earnings of $2.2M in Q3 vs $-9.5M in Q2.

    Total combined earnings of $38.2M (~$0.30/share) in Q3 vs $19.5M (~$0.15.5/share) in Q2.

    Liners

    Q3 estimated hire of $78.1M vs $75.3M in Q2 Inclusive of $2.5M estimated Q3 profit share vs $2.4M in Q2

    Increase attributable to more days in the quarter and delivery of 5 new container ships during the quarter. Increase partially offset by sale of container feeder vessels. Increased profit share due to expanding scrubber fuel spread.

    Bulkers

    Q3 estimated hire $46.4M vs $39.4M in Q2 Majority of charter hire coming from ships operating in the spot markets.

    Increase attributable to 7 handysize bulkers and 3 supramax bulkers trading in the spot market, and 8 capesize bulkers on time charters with profit share. One additional supramax was added late in the quarter and may have a small effect.

    Increase offset by estimated higher fuel and crewing costs during the quarter.

    Tankers

    Q3 estimated hire of $14.7M vs $14.6M in Q2 Increase attributable to more days in the quarter.

    Rigs

    Q3 estimated hire of $12.2M vs $12.2M in Q2

    NonRecurring/NonCash Items

    Securities

    We estimate a gain of $0.5MM on marketable securities in Q3. This is entirely driven by appreciation of 1.4M shares held in Frontline.

    SFL's other bonds and securities are likely to have appreciated as they are oil-related, but are also highly illiquid and difficult to value.

    Swaps & Derivatives

    I estimate an approximate $1.2MM appreciation of non-designated derivatives. I estimate approximately $3MM appreciation of designated derivatives.

    Other items

    1.3MM higher interest expense related to rollover of unsecured bonds.

    Slightly higher interest expense related to increase in Norwegian funds rate.

    Gain on repurchase of debt and a small reduction in the credit-loss provision is likely, but not estimated.

    Ongoing Developments

    7 Handysize vessels are to be sold for $100M in Q4, with net proceeds of $50M and book gains of $40M. This will result in a decrease in quarterly earnings of roughly $10M, and is expected to take partial effect in Q4 2021 and full effect in Q1 2022.

    3 Suezmax tankers are to be acquired in Q4 2021, along with 5-year fixed-rate charters. They are expected to contribute ~$7MM in gross charter hire per quarter.

    Seadrill has had it's proposed reorganization plan approved by the secured debt holders and bankruptcy court. It is expected to complete reorganization in Q4 2021. It is expected that SFL will receive a one-time payment related to reimbursable legal fees, and an increase in ongoing charter rates related to its two offshore oil rigs. This will contribute roughly 1.5MM to quarterly earnings assuming the lease for the West Linus remains unmodified.

    SFL repaid a $225M bond due October 15, 2021. The convertible bonds were issued at $225M and an interest rate of 5.75%. The issuance of the $150M @7.25% bond in Q2 and repayment of the @225M @5.75% bond will reduce interest expense moving forward by $0.5M/quarter relative to Q1 2021.

    SFL continues to benefit from dramatic increases in charter rates for Capesize and Supramax vessels this quarter. With the 5 new container vessels taking full effect in Q4, we expect to see another substantial step up in recurring earnings, depending upon the exact sale date of the handysize vessels.

    Disclosure

    I hold long positions in derivatives related to SFL. I am not an investment advisor or finance professional, nor have I held experience in a related position.

    submitted by /u/slipperymagoo
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    Greenhaven Road Capital Q3 2021 Letter

    Posted: 02 Nov 2021 04:41 AM PDT
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