Stocks - Big Drop in Black Friday Retails Store Traffic |
- Big Drop in Black Friday Retails Store Traffic
- BABA bagholders do you still have hope?
- Satya Nadella Sells Half of His Shares of MSFT
- Mythbusting TQQQ
- Am I crazy for buying the following stocks at the prices listed here?
- S&p500 and recovery time
- Best way to learn about the stock market and investments?
- Disney's 'Encanto' wins the box office
- Citigroup: "we would buy into any dip"
- [Academic] Survey about the connection between the stock market and the social media.
- Need help with Investing rules from Ray Dalio
- What are the bubbles to out there at the moment?
- Buying the dip or waiting for a market recover
- Wash Sale Question
- Stocks to buy during crash
- Space sector stocks
- Diversified Portfolio
- Market P/E ratios are 2.4 standard deviations from normal trend line. What's your thoughts on this data?
- Stock screener based on mark minervini's template
- Tax loss harvesting, short-term vs. long-term
- What is the best trading platform that’s easy to use for someone from the UK?
- Which apps or websites do you use?
- Chart-traders weekend update for investors who want to know where markets are headed (purely TA based)
| Big Drop in Black Friday Retails Store Traffic Posted: 28 Nov 2021 05:34 AM PST Preliminary data shows a drop of 28.3% in foot traffic at U.S. retails stores on Black Friday as compared to 2019 levels. Sensormatic Solutions found that the drop was even bigger for Thanksgiving Day, visits to brick-and-mortar stores plummeted by 90.4% compared to 2019. Retailers including Target Walmart and Best Buy chose to remain closed on the holiday. On a positive note, in-person shopper traffic on Black Friday was up 47.5% compared with 2020, when many shoppers stayed home. Traffic was closest to returning to 2019 levels in the South, followed by the Midwest and then the Western U.S., according to a report from CNBC. [link] [comments] |
| BABA bagholders do you still have hope? Posted: 28 Nov 2021 01:22 PM PST My average cost of BABA shares is around $177. Its around 13% of the portfolio and currently at a price of 133 down around 25%. I believe in BABA eventually coming back to 300+ BUT i don't think its going to come back fast enough to justify being capital locked for the number of years i would potentially have to wait to make the investment worthwhile. If i sold now i would have to take around 15k loss- it hurts but i hate looking at the position... especially on something i don't believe in anymore. Anyone else in a similar situation? [link] [comments] |
| Satya Nadella Sells Half of His Shares of MSFT Posted: 28 Nov 2021 12:22 PM PST Satya Nadella, sold ~838.6K between November 22 and November 23. Shares were sold in a value scope of $334.37 and $349.22. This brings his absolute offer to build up to 831K offers. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella discloses the sale of 839K shares. These sales were not related to an options exercise or an established 10b5-1 plan and were his largest sales ever. Link to the SEC filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000106299321011647/xslF345X03/form4.xml Thoughts? [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 28 Nov 2021 12:10 PM PST It seems many posters are circulating a lot of misinformation about TQQQ (and leveraged ETFs in general) so I'm certain a lot of readers have internalized many false myths that I want to bust: TQQQ will always decay over time vs 3x QQQ FALSE Basically TQQQ rebalances daily after the close. The purpose of the rebalancing is to ensure TQQQ will perform at 3x the next day so it will reduce or increase it's exposure appropriately. This rebalancing means TQQQ will have a variance to 3x QQQ over time. If bullish, TQQQ will be >3x, bearish <3x which are both positive developments for investors. The problem is choppy markets will cause TQQQ to decline in value vs. QQQ which is what a lot of myths focus on. Bloggers have coined this "volatility decay" and this is a bad misnomer. Decay implies the rebalancing is always bad as in negative to the returns on TQQQ. For example: On February 19, 2020 the pre-pandemic closing high for QQQ is $236.98, for TQQQ is $118.06 (pre-2021 split). On March 23, 2020, QQQ closed at $170.46, a drop of 28.1%. A 3x drop would be 84.2% and many bloggers would have you believe the drop would be even worse with volatility decay -- WRONG. On March 23, 2020, TQQQ closed at $35.62, a drop of 69.8% which while significant is still way less than 3x and a positive variance of 14.4% Now, let's take it from there to the close on September 1, 2020. QQQ is at $299.92, a 75.9% gain. 3x would be 227.8% but TQQQ closed at $169.74 a 376.5% increase and a huge positive variance of 148.7% to 3x QQQ. Thus, the rebalancing or "volatility decay" can be positive or negative. TQQQ will go to zero one day FALSE The only way to have TQQQ drop to zero is if the NASDAQ 100 drops 33.4%+ in one trading session. Remember, it has to be one trading session. Just think about that, what would it take for the index to drop that much in a single day? Probably something that makes money worthless like a nuclear war or huge asteroid strike. And then we have circuit breakers on the exchanges. Not going into detail but a drop of 20% should shut down trading for the day and TQQQ will rebalance. Even if this kept on and on the bottom line is TQQQ will continue to exist. Want more evidence? SQQQ is still alive and kicking despite the massive bull market and many reverse stock splits. Also bloggers have cited many leveraged ECN's and commodity ETFs closing and citing contango as a built in negative factor. There are so many problems with this. TQQQ is based off stock index and while contango is a real thing it is inapplicable to TQQQ. My Opinion For me TQQQ has been great for swing trading and writing options on. But I watch it daily, use technical analysis, and have been lucky to sniff out major drops before the bottom and sell, and then get back in. Yes, I got murdered on the way down but I recovered it all and then some. Buy and hold (and the implied forget) is IMHO too dangerous no matter what backtesting tells you. That is the big question; will you have the discipline to sell out when the next big correction hits? And also will you buy back in before it completely bounces back? If you don't think you can do both then I would stay away from TQQQ. EDIT: FYI, there have been many posts in this subreddit demonstrating the volatility decay with math. While volatility decay is real under certain circumstances what those posts fail to explain is in bull rallies the positive rebalancing variance will more than wipe out the decay. Quick example, August 3, 2021 QQQ is $366.81 and TQQQ $135.01, on October 14 after much choppiness QQQ is back to $366.63 but TQQQ is only at $133.24. That's just a -1.2% decay. Now fast forward to November 19, 2021 and we have QQQ at $403.99 and TQQQ at 177.14, all decay has been wiped out as TQQQ now has a positive variance of 0.8% to 3x QQQ. [link] [comments] |
| Am I crazy for buying the following stocks at the prices listed here? Posted: 27 Nov 2021 09:21 PM PST I'm considering buying the following stocks on Monday. I'll almost definitely buy the stocks that are near their 52-week low (unless there's some reason I should not?). But debating whether to buy those near the 52-week average. Thoughts? And guessing I should buy none near their 52-week highs? NEAR 52-WEEK LOW:
NEAR 52-WEEK AVERAGE:
NEAR 52-WEEK HIGH:
In the past I've just invested in total stock market mutual funds, but now I am looking at some company stocks. Any advice on the stocks I listed would be much appreciated. Thanks! [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 28 Nov 2021 04:08 PM PST Hello! After seeing a comment on the s&p500 and breaking Even on another sub, it got me thinking. If I invest into the s&p500 at the peak Price and the price falls and never put anymore money in, what's the longest amount of time historically has it taken to breakeven? Hopefully that makes sense? 😅 I'll try to explain better if it's not clear what I'm asking Thank you! [link] [comments] |
| Best way to learn about the stock market and investments? Posted: 28 Nov 2021 05:26 AM PST I'm an intelligent person, but I have absolutely no knowledge about the stock market. I finished school and started my career over the past year, so I finally have a stable income and am not living paycheck to paycheck. I've always been interested in stock investments, but have never been educated. Now that I'm in the financial position to do so, I'd like to educate myself and start investing (starting slow and small, of course). Does anyone have any good resources/crash courses for a newbie to learn about the stock market and investments? Thank you! [link] [comments] |
| Disney's 'Encanto' wins the box office Posted: 28 Nov 2021 02:03 PM PST Disney continued its dominance of the U.S. box office over the extended holiday weekend with the release of the animated feature "Encanto," which grossed $40.3 million across the Wednesday-through-Sunday span from a release in 3,980 theaters. Despite landing in the top berth of the weekend's top 10 and scoring the best opening weekend numbers for an animated feature in the pandemic era, the five-day gross for "Encanto" was considerably lower than the box office takes for earlier Disney animated films that opened over the Thanksgiving period, including "Frozen II" in 2019 ($123.7 million), "Ralph Breaks the Internet" in 2018 ($84.6 million) and "Coco" in 2017 ($71 million). Also, "Encanto" had strong competition from last week's box office champ, Ghostbusters: Afterlife," which finished in a close second place behind the Disney film with $35.2 million from 4,315 theaters during the five-day haul. [link] [comments] |
| Citigroup: "we would buy into any dip" Posted: 28 Nov 2021 03:23 PM PST
Are you guys expecting the strong rebound and green end of the year? [link] [comments] |
| [Academic] Survey about the connection between the stock market and the social media. Posted: 28 Nov 2021 03:50 PM PST I'm currently writing my Bachelor's Thesis about investor behaviour and the meme stocks, and it would be a significant help if you took 5-7 minutes of your time to answer this survey I have conducted: https://forms.gle/U3zF3La97YmaNEM87 The survey is anonymous and will be solely used for my Bachelor's Thesis in BME. Thank you in advance! [link] [comments] |
| Need help with Investing rules from Ray Dalio Posted: 28 Nov 2021 02:34 PM PST I was reading Dalio's book "Principles" and to sum it up he states there are three rules for investing. 1. Study economics 2. Diversify between uncorrelated sources of income 3. Build an algo and backtest it. I feel this is too much for me as an individual. What options do I have? Is there another book more appropriate for individual investors? [link] [comments] |
| What are the bubbles to out there at the moment? Posted: 28 Nov 2021 01:31 AM PST The last big bubble we had was the dot-com bubble that lasted from '95 to '00 and was fuled by the Internet and software companies. The Nasdaq went from 1000 to 5400 in this period. And crashed down the following two years. 52% of the dot-com companies went bust. I'm interested finding and timing other bubbles out there, if you see more bubbles around please drop a coment. So far the most obvious one is the EV bubble. The question is also when it will burst. Let's look at peak valuation ( not current ) Tesla - $1243.49 - $1.25 Trillion, just shy of 40% of the global market cap for vehicle production, and they produce 0.65% of the cars in the world. Rivian - $179.47 - $150 Billion, a round 5% of the global mareket cap for vehicle production, and they produce 0% of the cars in the world. NIO - $66.99 - $110 Billion, a round 3.5% of the global market cap for vehicle production, and they produce 0.03% of the cars in the world. Lucid - $64.86 - $105 Billion, around 3.5% of the global market cap for vehicle production, and they produce 0.00003% of the cars in the world this year. XPEV - $68.42 - $54 Billion, 1.8% of the global cap, and 0.1% of global production. And then you have ARVL, FSKR, NKLA, GOEV. All worth billions. [link] [comments] |
| Buying the dip or waiting for a market recover Posted: 28 Nov 2021 05:15 PM PST As travel restrictions and state of emergencies are settling in, along with it futures showing promising market recovery, how do you think tomorrow will do? Is the market going to recover fully and bounce back from Black Friday's covid variant scare, or will people start to realize that the vaccine and up to date boosters are still effective in containing the virus. What are your moved for tomorrow? [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 28 Nov 2021 05:02 PM PST I have a couple individual airline stocks, which as you might have guessed, took kind of a dive the past few weeks. If I sold them for a loss for tax purposes and then reinvested in JETS etf, would that count as a wash sale? [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 28 Nov 2021 08:39 AM PST I don't want this to happen but if it happens what are the stocks that I can invest. I missed 2020 crash as I was new to investing. Now I have funds that I want to set aside for opportunities like these. [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 28 Nov 2021 12:20 PM PST Hey everyone just wanted to hear what you think of investing the the space sector. Companies I know or are: Astra, Rocket-lab, SPCE, Redwire, Ark-K What do you think of these tickets? what do I need to add? and what do you think about the sector in general in the next 5-10 years [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 28 Nov 2021 11:09 AM PST I'm currently thinking to start investing some money accumulated over the last few years in a diversified all around etf Portfolio. Just for your info, I'm 20, a student, live in Europe (explaining my relatively high European etf portion) and won't need the money in the next 10 years. It's around 10-15k Euro. The portfolio will look like this: 5% commodity 5% Gold 5% Reits - Real Estate 20% Europe 25% Emerging Markets 40% World Do you think I diversify too much or do you see any other problems I could face with such a portfolio? Thanks in advance! [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 28 Nov 2021 12:22 PM PST I'm a visual learner and thought this website did a really good job of putting everything into perspective on the current market situation. https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/ I was looking at the P/E ratio, which is sitting at 38.5 as average for the market. I think we all know the markets high right now, but this is getting to the 2000 Internet bubble level. It's just a matter of time in my eyes. Question is when. [link] [comments] |
| Stock screener based on mark minervini's template Posted: 28 Nov 2021 09:12 AM PST Hey, I want to apply minervini's template to a stock screener, but I cant find most of the options and don't fully know how to. I tried it in finviz and tradingview but cant find some things, example not even the 150 MA is in the options / screener. Last one I understand is difficult to apply, but the rest, have anyone managed to screen it somehow?
[link] [comments] |
| Tax loss harvesting, short-term vs. long-term Posted: 28 Nov 2021 07:54 AM PST I have some short-term losses on VXUS, which is a long-term investment in my brokerage account. Would it be wise, if by the end of this year they are still losses, to tax loss harvest them and buy a similar international fund, like the iShares equivalent ACWX, (or wait 30 days to re-buy VXUS)? Also, are there any differences between short-term losses and long-term losses when it comes to tax loss harvesting? Or do they both count the same in terms of writing off losses for the year. Thanks for any guidance or feedback, I'm having a hard time finding if there are any differences between short-term and long-term losses in tax loss harvesting. [link] [comments] |
| What is the best trading platform that’s easy to use for someone from the UK? Posted: 28 Nov 2021 05:22 PM PST I'm trying to open an account for a family member and trading 212 isn't currently allowing new users. What is the best alternative? I tried fidelity international however it doesn't allow trading into US markets. [link] [comments] |
| Which apps or websites do you use? Posted: 28 Nov 2021 07:36 AM PST For trading or checking your portfolio? I'm new at this and there are so many to choose from lol. Which one have you found is the best or the easiest? Thanks thanks thanks thanks thanks thanks thanks words cuz my post is shorttttttt lol [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 28 Nov 2021 12:51 PM PST Welcome to the weekend update! I hope everyone enjoyed Thanksgiving despite the market pullback (or correction for reopening stocks). Technicals changed quite a bit over a 2 week period and all of a sudden everything including a severe sell-off is possible again. Under the surface stocks had corrected already quite a bit. Especially international indices could not keep up with US indices. Only a few large-cap stocks kept markets going and the music might end here (like in 2018 where we crashed in December). But let's cut to the chase: As always there is no way to post charts on reddit/stocks so I will explain what I see! People who follow TA and my weekend updates have a chart program by now and can easily see what I describe. NDX100: It all started very promising with the extremely low MACD readings late September and October and investor sentiment net negative for 4 weeks in a row. I had posted that it was a buying opportunity back then. The minimum target was supposed to be 17000 but NDX100 decided to stop less than 2% shy of it. Now we ended up with negative divergences in the daily charts for most Oscillators. Weekly charts displayed negative divergences for quite some time now. Disclaimer: I own QQQ longterm Outlook short-/medium term: Neutral. Possibly bullish if we stay above 15700 but there is definitely a risk of a more pronounced sell off. DJI: Dow Jones had another rough week and broke below the previous high at 35600. Minimum target was 37500 but DJI also only came close within 2%. Now we broke below the 35600 region and the break above could have been a false break given the negative divergences all over. Next stop is the 200 day average at 34300 but if NDX100 and S&P500 finally decide to stop the party it won't hold. Outlook short-/medium term: Neutral. Bullish above 35500 again but bearish below 200 day average. S&P500: I mentioned last week that the Slow Stoch could form a negative divergence and sure enough that's what happened. Also 2% shy of the 4800 minimum target. Now the previous breakout area around 4550 does not look like it will hold. Outlook short-/medium term: Neutral. Bullish above 4550 Disclaimer: I own SPY longterm Russell 2000: Small caps were clobbered. Here I also warned last week that the MACD could allow a significant downturn but I personally was still in the year-end rally camp which will likely cost me more money. As MACD suggested we had a rough week closing below the 200 day average. From here it could drop fast if Friday's action was not an outlier due to low volume and misinterpretation of the mutation threat. I actually bought more on Friday but it will likely cost me dearly looking at the down potential of the big US indices which would drag everything else down. Disclaimer: I own IWM and URTY Outlook short-/medium term: Neutral. If we stay below the 200 day average for many more days it turns bearish quickly. If we can recapture it it all depends on the big indices. If you are only interested in US indices stop here at your own risk (of losing out on opportunities)! AAXJ: Asia ex Japan dropped like a rock. Not even close to the minimum target of 200 day average. We are now at previous lows which looked like a rounding bottom but....zooming out it looks like the great unwind might come. Meaning we could get back to pre-Covid levels especially if the few US darlings start correcting now. Disclaimer: I am currently still overweight the regular 10% allocation to Asia and China especially BABA and TME. Outlook short-/medium term: Neutral. Last week I said bullish although choppy because we are in the middle of a long-term bottoming phase. If US indices unwind the negative divergences Asia would likely lose again disproportionally more. FEZ (Eurostoxx): New Covid lockdowns certainly did not help. On top of it the mutation news sent Europe in panic mode. Here also the unresolved overbought situation opened up the index for more losses. I expected it to stop at the 50, 200 day average or recent lows. We are now at recent lows but again if US darlings start a correction the bottom will fall out. Disclaimer: I own FEZ longterm Outlook: Neutral. The most recent lows need to hold or anything is possible. Speculative: EWZ (Brazil): Brazil is still in dire straights but like with the Evergrande disaster I suggested that it might be worth looking at investment opportunities. There was relative strength this week at the $29 region again but the same is true like for all other induces. It all depends on the top 3 US indices. Extremely dangerous situation. Disclaimer: 6% of my portfolio are call options on EWZ Outlook: Possible bottoming phase. Highly speculative. Possible investment opportunity: JETS ETF: Last week I recommended JETS because it looked like a quadruple bottom would form at the $22 region. Friday it dropped by 10%. I bought more at $20 but......this could be an endless pit. I might have to become a H O D Ler on that one. Disclaimer: I own JETS STOP here if you have no interest in the positioning of my portfolios! Overall positioning: Time in the market is key and therefore I suggest to always be 100% invested. However timing the market CAN absolutely be done. I try to beat the benchmark with margin loans, leveraged ETFs and options trading. While I still beat the benchmark this year the overexposure to reopening stocks and not the few big US stocks that held indices up this year caused a significant drawdown the last 2 weeks amplified by the leverage used. The goal is to watch closely and get protection below the 200 day averages. There is still a chance that we are close to a short term buying opportunity looking at the VIX spike and Dollar weakness Friday. US Dollar strength can be a sign of fear. Maybe Friday was overdone but overall given the recent market behavior a significant drop is definitely in the cards. Happy to discuss as usual. Just post in comment section. Happy Trades! [link] [comments] |
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