Good Friday evening to all of you here on r/StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning November 22nd, 2021.
Stocks may be entering an optimal period in the Thanksgiving holiday week - (Source)
If history is a guide, the market should do well in the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday week.
The S&P 500 was slightly higher in the past week, buoyed by positive economic reports, particularly the unexpectedly strong 1.7% jump in October's retail sales. There are a number of economic reports in the week ahead. The most important release is Wednesday's personal consumption expenditures, which includes the inflation measure most watched by the Federal Reserve.
"The last five trading days of November are traditionally positive, since 1950," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. "There's a two-thirds likelihood the market is up on the day before Thanksgiving and a 57% likelihood the day after Thanksgiving, and a 71% likelihood that it's up on Monday."
This year that holiday rally could depend on whether Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continues in his role after his term expires in February. Biden has also interviewed Fed Governor Lael Brainard, who is supported by progressive Democrats.
Strategists expect market volatility around the appointment, particularly if it is Brainard. She is viewed as more dovish than Powell, meaning she may be slower to raise interest rates. Elevated levels of inflation have been a concern in the market, and the worry is Brainard would not be as aggressive fighting it with rate hikes if necessary.
"Barring a change at the helm of the Fed, I think the market trajectory is going to continue to be higher, as we move toward 2022," said Jeff Schulze, investment strategist with ClearBridge Investments. "Given that Brainard is even more dovish than Powell, I think markets would recover very quickly... the markets are unsure whether the new Fed chairman could command consensus within the FOMC to effectively deliver policy," he added.
Schulze said the economic momentum is improving, and he expects that fourth-quarter gross domestic product could be in the double digits after the disappointing 2% pace of the third quarter. The second reading for the third-quarter GDP is released Wednesday.
In the past week, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index also showed solid, better-than-expected activity in the mid-Atlantic region. "It really confirms the view that despite supply side constraints, the recovery is on track after the Covid-related slowdown in Q3," Schulze said. "I think the markets are going to price in better earnings as we move into fourth-quarter earnings and 2022."
But Stovall said the market may take a pause before it moves higher, and he expects a choppy period. The S&P 500 gains on average 7.2% between its October low and the end of the year. But by early November, the S&P 500 was up more than 9% from its low, and was overbought, he said.
Stovall also said the market could become concerned again about the spread of Covid in Europe and beyond. Due to a high rate of new cases, the government of Austria announced a three-week lockdown and a vaccine mandate.
Stocks reacted negatively to the Austrian news Friday, though the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained. Stocks were mixed for the week, with the Dow down 1.4% and the Nasdaq up 1.2%, lifted by tech stock gains. The S&P 500 was up 0.3% for the week, ending at 4,697.
"There is still upside potential. The worry about inflation and now Covid are reasons for the overbought condition to work itself through," he said. Stovall added the market could move sideways to lower for awhile, but it should end the year higher. "But right now, there's a bit of choppiness because of Covid, because of the Fed chair possibly being replaced the worry about inflation and now and a whole variety of things," he said.
For investors who watch the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, Wells Fargo bond strategists point out that long-term Treasury yields generally move lower on the Monday and Tuesday before Thanksgiving.
"Our take is straightforward, and is essentially the same rationale as for moves around Labor Day: risk appetite is low on both the buy and sell sides," they said. But later in the week, starting Wednesday, the yield tends to rise.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
S&P Sectors for this past week:
Major Indices for this past week:
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
Tech is Leading Again
The S&P 500 Information Technology Sector has gained 27% in the past six months, outperforming the broader S&P 500 by more than 10%. But could its run of leadership just be getting started? As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the sector just broke out to fresh relative highs for the first time since September 2020.
14 months without a new relative high may not sound like a lot, but that actually represented the longest streak of underperformance for the tech sector since a more than 3-year run that ended in 2015. And while the sector's breakout does not mean that it will automatically go on another run of multiyear outperformance, we do believe context is important and that investors should recognize that just because technology has had a strong run recently, over the past 14 months the sector has performed just in line with the broader market. We would also note that these are not all-time relative highs for the sector, as it still sits below its early-2000 peak.
"The theme of 2021 has been rotation, rotation, rotation," said LPL Financial Technical Strategist Scott Brown. "But technology is the only sector to recently hit a 52-week relative high and we believe that sets up a favorable outlook heading into 2022."
From a fundamental perspective, technology continues to be a key enabler of higher productivity and home to many of the fastest growing companies. Despite topping all sectors with 9% earnings growth in 2020, earnings growth this year is on track to exceed 30%.
So does this mean investors should be shifting all of their assets over to growth stocks again? We don't necessarily think so, and continue to find opportunities in both growth and value styles. In our proprietary sector trend rankings, technology comes in at #2, trailing only energy and just ahead of financials, both of which sit firmly in the value style and have benefitted from the continued reopening and above trend economic growth. We believe quality growth and more cyclical value companies can both do well in the current environment and remain most negative on defensive sectors such as consumer staples and utilities that have traditionally underperformed during early-to-middle stages of the business cycle.
Sentiment Back to Average
The past week has seen the S&P 500 hover right below but not at record highs. The lack of new highs in price appears to have left individual investors apprehensive as bullish sentiment in the AAII survey pulled back 9.2 percentage points to 38.8%. That was the biggest one-week drop since a 16.5 percentage point decline in the week of September 16th, though back then, bullish sentiment sat much lower at 22.4%. At the current level, bullish sentiment is still within one percentage point of the historical average.
While bullish sentiment saw a sharp reversal lower, bearish sentiment rose modestly to 27.2%. That is the highest level since the end of October and that remains roughly 3 percentage points below the historical average.
Those inverse moves resulted in the bull-bear spread falling to 11.6. While lower, that still indicates overall sentiment favors optimists.
A greater share of the losses to bullish sentiment shifted to the neutral camp with around a third of respondents reporting as such. That is the highest level since the first week of October. That reading is a few percentage points above the historical average meaning that like bullish and bearish sentiment, current survey readings do not indicate sentiment is elevated or depressed to any sort of notable extent.
2021 Now Has The Second Most New Highs Ever
The incredible bull run of 2021 continues, with the S&P 500 Index only 0.02% away from the 66th all-time high this calendar year, tied with (for now) the 65 set in 1964 and behind only the record 77 set in 1995. "We've run out of superlatives to describe what we've seen so far this year, so we'll keep it very simple. Years like this don't happen very often, so let's remember to enjoy it," explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, 66 new highs this year would be second only to 1995. With about six weeks to go this year, 2021 is on pace to just barely miss setting a new record of new highs, but they say you won't hit the pitches you don't swing at and 2021 still has a lot of swings left, so anything is possible.
As we noted at the start of the month, November has been the best month of the year for stocks and it has been quite strong yet again this year. But be aware that November is historically rather strong early and late, while the middle can be choppy. Suggesting new highs could be a little tough to come by in the near-term, at least until we all get our fill of Turkey next week.
Additionally, post-election years can get quite choppy from now until late in December. After the run we've had lately, maybe some sideways chop is necessary, but we see further gains ahead through year-end.
Small and Mid Caps Gain Ground
Equities broadly have been in rally mode so far this quarter, but in the month of November smaller market caps have generally outperformed. Month to date, the small-cap S&P 600 ETF (IJR) has gained 5.88% as of this morning while the mid-cap S&P 400 ETF (IJH) has risen 4.21%. Large caps as proxied by the S&P 500 (SPY), meanwhile, are up less than 2% MTD. While there is plenty of time left in the month for things to change, the spread between the month-to-date performance of small and mid-caps versus large caps is on pace to be on the wider side of all months of the past twenty years. As shown in the charts below, IJR is currently outperforming SPY MTD by 4.05 percentage points, and that reading is 2.37 percentage points for IJH versus SPY. Those rank in the 91st and 86th percentiles, respectively, of all months of the past twenty years. That also marks the first month with significant outperformance of smaller market caps relative to large caps since the stretch of large-cap underperformance that ran from the fall of last year through this past February. Prior to that, you would have to go back to March 2018 to find the last time that small and mid-caps both outperformed large caps by as much as they are this month.
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending November 19th, 2021
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 11.21.21
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
- ($ZM $DKS $BBY $NIU $XPEV $HPQ $DE $AEO $DLTR $ANF $CRNC $PDO $FUTU $MDT $GPS $TWST $URBN $AVYA $BURL $ADI $JWN $OGI $ZH $DELL $A $CBRL $ADSK $JACK $KMDA $GENI $KEYS $SR $ROAD $SJM $ARWR $TITN $NTNX $AMWD $VMW $PSG $KC $MOV $J)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 11.22.21 Before Market Open:
Monday 11.22.21 After Market Close:
Tuesday 11.23.21 Before Market Open:
Tuesday 11.23.21 After Market Close:
Wednesday 11.24.21 Before Market Open:
Wednesday 11.24.21 After Market Close:
Thursday 11.25.21 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE. U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF THANKSGIVING DAY.)
Thursday 11.25.21 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE. U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF THANKSGIVING DAY.)
Friday 11.26.21 Before Market Open:
Friday 11.26.21 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Zoom Video Communications, Inc. $251.30
Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, November 22, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.09 per share on revenue of $1.02 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.07 to $1.08 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 29.76% with revenue increasing by 31.24%. Short interest has decreased by 4.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 14.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.2% below its 200 day moving average of $327.15. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 19, 2021 there was some notable buying of 3,421 contracts of the $220.00 put expiring on Friday, November 26, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 11.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 14.9% move in recent quarters.
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. $138.59
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 23, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.88 per share on revenue of $2.43 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.21 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 6.47% with revenue increasing by 0.74%. Short interest has increased by 12.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.3% above its 200 day moving average of $101.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 2, 2021 there was some notable buying of 2,864 contracts of the $100.00 put and 2,800 contracts of the $140.00 call expiring on Friday, January 21, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 10.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.4% move in recent quarters.
Best Buy Co., Inc. $136.13
Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 23, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.93 per share on revenue of $11.45 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.17 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 6.31% with revenue decreasing by 3.40%. Short interest has decreased by 15.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.7% above its 200 day moving average of $114.70. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 12, 2021 there was some notable buying of 30,704 contracts of the $140.00 call expiring on Friday, December 17, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 6.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.7% move in recent quarters.
Niu Technologies $24.06
Niu Technologies (NIU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 3:00 AM ET on Monday, November 22, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.22 per share on revenue of $214.87 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 46.67% with revenue increasing by 63.10%. Short interest has decreased by 32.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.8% below its 200 day moving average of $30.75. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 15.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.7% move in recent quarters.
XPeng Inc. $46.89
XPeng Inc. (XPEV) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 23, 2021. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $741.03 million to $771.90 million. Short interest has decreased by 25.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.5% above its 200 day moving average of $37.98. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, November 18, 2021 there was some notable buying of 3,640 contracts of the $48.00 call expiring on Friday, November 26, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 11.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.7% move in recent quarters.
HP Inc. $31.45
HP Inc. (HPQ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, November 23, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.88 per share on revenue of $15.44 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.94 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.84 to $0.90 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 41.94% with revenue increasing by 1.19%. Short interest has increased by 43.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.3% above its 200 day moving average of $29.88. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, October 14, 2021 there was some notable buying of 2,518 contracts of the $22.00 put expiring on Friday, January 20, 2023. Option traders are pricing in a 6.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.5% move in recent quarters.
Deere & Company $346.15
Deere & Company (DE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Wednesday, November 24, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.96 per share on revenue of $10.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $4.49 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 65.69% with revenue increasing by 9.34%. Short interest has decreased by 41.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.8% below its 200 day moving average of $356.19. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, November 8, 2021 there was some notable buying of 1,187 contracts of the $380.00 call and 1,099 contracts of the $320.00 put expiring on Friday, January 21, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 4.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.5% move in recent quarters.
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. $26.93
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 23, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.60 per share on revenue of $1.22 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 71.43% with revenue increasing by 18.26%. Short interest has increased by 7.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.9% below its 200 day moving average of $30.58. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 19, 2021 there was some notable buying of 2,124 contracts of the $22.00 put expiring on Friday, November 26, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 9.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.9% move in recent quarters.
Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. $134.96
Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. (DLTR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 23, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.95 per share on revenue of $6.41 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.88 to $0.98 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 31.65% with revenue increasing by 3.77%. Short interest has increased by 47.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 38.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.9% above its 200 day moving average of $103.90. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 17, 2021 there was some notable buying of 3,013 contracts of the $130.00 put expiring on Friday, March 18, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 7.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.3% move in recent quarters.
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. $45.19
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 23, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.68 per share on revenue of $894.71 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.72 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 10.53% with revenue increasing by 9.16%. Short interest has increased by 23.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 24.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.7% above its 200 day moving average of $38.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 19, 2021 there was some notable buying of 1,274 contracts of the $50.00 call expiring on Friday, November 26, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 11.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great holiday-shortened trading week ahead r/StockMarket. :)
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