Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - November 19, 2021 Investing |
- Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - November 19, 2021
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. November 19, 2021
- Buying copper stocks now that prices are taking a dip
- Turkey defies warnings and cuts interest rates
- What's The Biggest Loss You've Taken
- Draftkings worthy of investment?
- Selling stocks to buy I-bonds and eventually buy land
- Best plays if you think the FED won't raise interest rates?
- Sono Group: An EV startup that managed to contract out their manufacturing to Evergrande
- Anybody use an IUL style strategy in their personal accounts?
- Rather than comparing P/E to History, Compare Earnings Yields to Treasury Yields
- QQQ - If you're new today, how high can it go?
- What is the forward swap curve?
- Bear case for Sweetgreen... What's the bull case?
- Public equity REITs and opinions on their future
- Faze stock worthy of investment?
- ETFs Specific to US States ?
- Question: Taxes on Exercised Call Options
- Covered calls tips and questions?
- Apps for net worth overview
- Is it a good time to Invest in Turkey ?
| Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - November 19, 2021 Posted: 19 Nov 2021 02:02 AM PST Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! This thread is for:
Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google. If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions. Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed. [link] [comments] |
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. November 19, 2021 Posted: 19 Nov 2021 02:01 AM PST If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments] |
| Buying copper stocks now that prices are taking a dip Posted: 19 Nov 2021 04:13 AM PST Copper prices just fell because of China's strong industrial output despite the weakness in their property sector. The situation is still volatile but I am planning to buy copper stocks because of the dip knowing that the demand for copper will just keep on increasing. I have already placed some in Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) since they are paying a dividend of $2.70 per share. I'm thinking of placing in Fortitude Gold, since they're also paying a dividend which they just increased recently. I'm also into getting some juniors seeing how these companies might have some future once the demand for copper increases even more. I'm thinking of getting Copper Mountain Mining (CMMC), since they are already producing approximately 100 million pounds of copper equivalent. Three Valley Copper (TVC) is also promising especially after their upsize with a recent deal financing up to $16 million. Their second quarter results are also remarkable and they are expected to start annual production by the end of next year. The copper demand is rising and will probably increase and even double in the next few years so I'm taking my chance on this metal. I didn't put much anyways since I'm making sure I only invest the money I know I might lose in the end. [link] [comments] |
| Turkey defies warnings and cuts interest rates Posted: 18 Nov 2021 06:41 AM PST "The central bank cut its one-week repo rate by 1 percentage point to 15%, marking the third straight reduction in interest rates under governor Sahap Kavcioglu from 19% at the start of September. The bank said many factors behind surging consumer prices were "beyond monetary policy's control" and that it would "consider" ending its cycle of rate cuts this December. After the decision Turkey's lira plummeted about 4%, hitting 11 against the US dollar for the first time." Is this a political move by Erdogan? I do not have a great understanding of Turkish politics, however, Erdogan does not seem to be well liked by Turkish people I know and this decision seems irrational. Erdogan apparently holds the view that high interest causes inflation rather than tame it. Where else has this type of thinking been seen? Is it that common at all? This is the first time I have seen that opinion on interest rates and inflation https://www.ft.com/content/2db0434d-2851-4485-850d-06cfca32ff22 Edit: Added Quotation around the article text. [link] [comments] |
| What's The Biggest Loss You've Taken Posted: 18 Nov 2021 01:37 PM PST I recently just lost 10k on my 30k account and it really hurts as I was up 2k and then varied away from my trading strategy causing me to take a massive L, but it didn't stop there as I got risky with my plays to try and make the money back and now I found myself with only 20k left. I know it's not the end of the world but geez does it feel like it. So how much have you guys lost? and how did you get over it? [link] [comments] |
| Draftkings worthy of investment? Posted: 18 Nov 2021 08:48 PM PST So i bought in on draftkings at about 53 a while back and they have tanked but i have been holding for march madness earnings. Now with all of the deals being made and rumors of disney and espn could it be a good time or not worth. Since investing in something safer like SPYG or apple might have more guaranteed returns but if i bought in right now and it just returned to 60 which is below its 52 week high by alot i would essentially double my money but theres a lot of uncertainty with DKNG. So i came here for more informed opinions. TLDR; Question is do i buy in more while its below 40 or do i hold on what i have and just try to get what i can back and invest my money somewhere else. [link] [comments] |
| Selling stocks to buy I-bonds and eventually buy land Posted: 18 Nov 2021 07:14 PM PST Please critique my logical process and let me know if this makes sense. I would like to buy land in the next year or so. There is no real rush on it, but it's something I'd like to do in the near term. I have plenty of stock gains from the last couple of years, so I'm thinking of selling some to buy a property. However, real estate prices are also high right now and so is inflation, so my plan was to sell stocks and buy I-bonds then wait until the right time to buy a property. Is this a reasonably wise strategy? [link] [comments] |
| Best plays if you think the FED won't raise interest rates? Posted: 19 Nov 2021 02:39 AM PST As per the title. What are the best plays to make if you believe the FED won't increase interest rates and will keep them the same. Would the best play involve betting against TBT or betting for TLT? Are there any other plays such as betting for the general housing market that the asset values will keep increasing. I'm interested to hear what you think would be a good play to make in such scenario. [link] [comments] |
| Sono Group: An EV startup that managed to contract out their manufacturing to Evergrande Posted: 18 Nov 2021 08:10 AM PST Sono Group ($SEV), an EV startup that went public yesterday. I decided to take a quick look at the company. Their Vehicle is... not very impressive, no groundbreaking range, efficiency or price improvements. Their big selling point is solar cells plastered all over the vehicle, which many companies are exploring. You can learn more about the company here: https://sonomotors.com/ But, who exactly is building these cars? Surely a startup this size can't mass produce $30,000 vehicles. The answer is National Electric Vehicle Sweden (NEVS). They bought SAAB's assets in 2012 with the intent to make a SAAB 9-3 EV. In almost a decade, no vehicle has made it to production. It gets worse. NEVS is a subsidiary of China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group, A subsidiary of Evergrande Health Industry Group, who bought 100% of NEVS in 2020. Evergrande Health is, of course, a subsidiary Evergrande Group. Also of note, NEVS haven't filed any reports since 2019. NEVS ownership structure and investor relations: https://www.nevs.com/en/investors/owner-structure/ This company has managed to put their manufacturing into the hands of, ostensibly, an incompetent and unproven manufacturer, which is currently a wholly owned subsidiary of Evergrande Group. If ever there were an EV stock to avoid... this would be it. [link] [comments] |
| Anybody use an IUL style strategy in their personal accounts? Posted: 18 Nov 2021 08:00 PM PST In case anyone isn't familiar, the idea is to buy long bonds with enough of their portfolio that the bond payments will bring you back to even (think 97%) if you lose the rest of the account and then they buy long ATM S&P (or index of choice) 12m LEAPS calls with the remainder (like 3%). The idea being that you stay where you are at during down years and you see significant upside during good years. Is anybody using a strategy remotely like this in their own accounts? I don't, and haven't ever, done this myself. I have considered it several times, however. I have started to consider it again more lately as a way to add some more defensiveness to my portfolio. If anyone has tried to do something similar as retail, I would be interested to hear what you thought about the results. That could perhaps involve long SPX futures, long bond futures, and some NUSI or something. Doesn't really matter what it is, just throwing some ideas out there. [link] [comments] |
| Rather than comparing P/E to History, Compare Earnings Yields to Treasury Yields Posted: 18 Nov 2021 08:27 AM PST S&P 500 forward price to earnings ratios are at the highest they've been since the tech bubble. This may lead to the question- are we in a bubble? One way of valuing the true value of a stock is how much in earnings it will produce in the future. Present earnings are worth more than future earnings. Generally, a discount rate is used, which is based on treasury yields, but at a higher interest rate to compensate for the risk of owning equities. Historically, the S&P 500 earnings yield has often closely tracked the 10 year treasury yield, because earnings are expected to grow over time, providing further upside potential, whereas treasuries pay a fixed rate. https://www.yardeni.com/pub/valuationfed.pdf This hasn't been the case in current years. Currently, the S&P500's forward earnings yield is 4.68%, vs a 1.53% treasury yield. Contrast this with the '99 tech bubble, where treasury yields were much higher than the S&P500 earnings yield prior to the crash. The big risk is of course rising treasury yields as the fed tapers, and eventually raises benchmark rates. Rising treasury yields make bonds more attractive relative to current equity prices, which can lead to a decline if earnings aren't growing. Fortunately, there is a way you can hedge against this risk. During periods of rising interest rates and inflation, "Value" stocks usually outperform "growth" stocks. This is because earnings are discounted based on current interest rates. Because interest rates are at historical lows, companies like Tesla, Roblox, Rivian, Lucid Motors are valued at extremely high valuations. This is because when you use a discount rate of 1-2%, future earnings are worth very close to present earnings. With a discount rate of 2%, earnings in 30 years are worth 55% of present earnings. However, if you raise that discount rate to 7% due to higher treasury yields, earnings 30 years from now are worth just 11% of present earnings! On the contrary, value stocks like Intel are currently very cheap. In this market, no one wants to own "Dinosaur" companies that aren't growing. They would rather own the companies they expect to be bigger in 30 years, like AMD, Nvidia, etc. And with a 1-2% discount rate, the math checks out. When interest rates rise substantially, if they do, growth stocks that depend on low rates to justify their valuation will get hit HARD, with as much as 80% downside. Value stocks will be hit as well as their future earnings are discounted further, but not nearly to the same extent that growth stocks do, since they have high present earnings. Personally, my portfolio is tilted very high towards value stocks and profitable stocks. I hold Fidelity Large Cap Value and Fidelity Small Cap value, and Fidelity Real Estate, as well as VYM and VIG as an indirect way to factor tilt towards profitable stocks. Of course, stocks always carry market risk. A recession can drive a crash due to lower earnings, as it did in 2009, and in 2020. If you are investing for the short term, it may be smart to avoid having too much in equities. [link] [comments] |
| QQQ - If you're new today, how high can it go? Posted: 18 Nov 2021 09:22 AM PST Let's say you're 21 and starting your career and choosing your investments for the next 30 years. Tech is absolutely "killing" it as we all know, but how long can this rally be upkept? How much more innovation do the FAANG's of the world need considering they are already the absolute leaders in their fields? Or do these securities just continue to become more expensive over time due to inflation? What I'm really getting at is what is the 'room to grow' factor with these mega-cap FAANGs? [link] [comments] |
| What is the forward swap curve? Posted: 18 Nov 2021 02:27 PM PST What is the forward swap curve? I'm well aware of yield curves and of comparison between rates (10/2 charts) / (30/10 charts) but the picture below is referring to the "3 year forward 3-month/10-year swap curve". Could someone explain what that means? Is it derived by taking current swap rates? How do you look those up? Is there any website that has this sort of information? Thanks [link] [comments] |
| Bear case for Sweetgreen... What's the bull case? Posted: 18 Nov 2021 09:59 PM PST Sweetgreen IPOed today (see: https://www.wsj.com/articles/sweetgreen-to-make-market-debut-after-upsized-ipo-11637245537). This is great news and I'm happy for them -- I like the food a lot, and I like how innovative they've been at times, at least when I visit their NYC locations. ... but... They have a ~$6B market cap... 19x TTM revenue multiples... They grew revenue about 37% YOY, and that's comparing to the 2020 lockdown. Compared to 2019, their revenue is up only about 12%. ... now top all of this off with the risk of wage inflation, inflation of ingredients, and the fact that I'm not sure the NYC model of eating food (healthy salads with healthy markup!) will translate to other parts of the US. So that's the bear case. But I want to like the company. Could ANYONE give me a bull case for them? [link] [comments] |
| Public equity REITs and opinions on their future Posted: 18 Nov 2021 09:00 PM PST Curious what people think about equity REITs going forward. I know they tend to react to interest rate changes in terms of price. But some of them have provided great returns for decades and seem to survive about anything. Not the shitty mortgage companies--I mean the equity REITs that own the buildings outright. They seem to be enduring overall and can provide solid returns through market cycles... just have to give them time and reinvest. (US based). "REITs smell like real estate, look like bonds, and walk like equities." They're probably my favorite kind of publicly traded investment. Yet, I'd like to hear others' opinions on them considering how many people tend to only focus on technology shares these days. Edit: equity REITs, not eREITs a la Fundrise. [link] [comments] |
| Faze stock worthy of investment? Posted: 18 Nov 2021 04:12 PM PST Now with faze becoming a public stock with the SPAC merger happening with draftkings. Do you guys think this will be a good thing for draftkings and more importantly do you guys think faze can actually do something with their stock. On the one hand it will always be remembered as a bunch of youtubers who just played call of duty but with how gaming and esports are nowadays i feel like if they play their cards right this could possibly be something. Im kind of new to this tho so im looking for more informed opinions so what are your guys thoughts? [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 18 Nov 2021 12:35 PM PST There are plenty of country-specific ETFs which can be easily found. I wanted to know if there are ETFs that focus on specific US states -- like say, Texas or Florida, for example. How would I be able to find those, if they exist? Anybody know of anything? These are the only 2 sites I know of to look up ETFs on: But they didn't have that level of detail that looks at US states. Is that because the US is too integrated economically for ETFs to be able to invest in particular states? [link] [comments] |
| Question: Taxes on Exercised Call Options Posted: 18 Nov 2021 06:04 AM PST I have been buying LEAPS in tax-deferred accounts for several years and have done very well with them. Typically I roll them as they approach expiration or simply sell them and reinvest in LEAPS of other names. Feb 2020 I bought an ATM call for GOOGL 01/21/2022 1420.00. Needless to say this has had a massive gain (627%). Unlike my normal practice I bought it in a taxable brokerage account. I know there is a LT Cap Gain if I sell or roll the option. What I don't know is what happens if I exercise the option and take possession of 100 GOOGL? Do I still owe cap gains taxes or will I owe them when I eventually sell the GOOGL shares? I don't know if this is appropriate for the sub. Apologies if it's not. [link] [comments] |
| Covered calls tips and questions? Posted: 18 Nov 2021 06:54 AM PST Just a few questions that I'm still confused about, here are some questions that I still have, if you know any or all, thanks in advance!
[link] [comments] |
| Posted: 18 Nov 2021 04:18 AM PST What app do you guys use to get an overview of all your positions when they are distributed over multiple brokers, banks and asset classes? I have two stock portfolios with different banks and also crypto, metals, loan contracts and so on. Looking forward to your recommendations! [link] [comments] |
| Is it a good time to Invest in Turkey ? Posted: 19 Nov 2021 01:41 AM PST Hello, we see how flexible the Turkish lira could be, so the current exchange rates are in favor of western countries. Current rates: 1eur = 12.45try 1gbp = 14.79try 1usd = 11.00try It seems that Turkey is a country of good opportunities and one of the top places to invest your money at the moment. Have you ever considered investing in Turkey and how likely is that you buy a Property/Business/Land in Turkey ? Do you expect the Turkish lira to continue rising against eur/gbp/usd in the future ? Additional opinions about investing in Turkey and Turkish lira are welcome -------------------------------- A new easing regulations were implemented in 2012 for Foreigners owning property in Turkey. The Release of Real Estate Ownership Law for Foreigners in Turkey The Turkish government has made significant amendments to the Turkish Real Estate Law regarding the conditions that must be met by foreign individuals wishing to own real estate in Turkey by approving the law number 6302 on 05.05.2012, where they lifted some restrictions on the ownership of foreigners. And provided some facilities in the conditions to be met by foreign individuals wishing to own real estate in Turkey, with restrictions imposed on citizens of some neighboring countries of Turkey. The Flexibility of the Ownership Law for Foreigners in Turkey With this law, Turkey has given the right of property ownership to citizens of 183 countries without being subject to reciprocity. The most important reason for issuing this law, which opened the way for foreign investors to own real estate in Turkey, is to increase the desire of investors to invest in the real estate sector. The most important part of this law is canceling the reciprocity conditions for foreign investors. Thus, individuals from foreign countries are able to buy a property in Turkey, although Turks are not allowed to own the property in those countries to which those individuals belong. The principle of reciprocity is the rights and privileges granted by one State to the nationals of the other State, and the same privileges and rights are accorded to the nationals of those States. Which Nationalities are Entitled to Own an Unconditional Property in Turkey? Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, Yemen, Oman, Sudan, Germany, America, Argentina, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus, Belgium, Benin, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei Darussalam, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Djibouti, Chad, Jake, Finland, France, South Africa, South Sudan, Georgia, Netherlands, Honduras, Britain, Iceland, Jamaica, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Republic of Korea, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Kosovo, Costa Rica, Luxembourg, Madagascar, Macedonia, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Norway, Panama, Suriname, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Venezuela and New Zealand. [link] [comments] |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Lose money with friends!. To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States | |
No comments:
Post a Comment