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    Stocks - Warren Buffett and the psychology behind buying, holding, and selling

    September 11, 2021

    Stocks - Warren Buffett and the psychology behind buying, holding, and selling

    Warren Buffett and the psychology behind buying, holding, and selling

    Posted: 11 Sep 2021 05:24 AM PDT

    Warren Buffett once said one of his biggest mistakes is looking for the cheapest stocks he can get. Instead, he suggests looking for great companies and then go all in if the price is fair. Great companies you can hold for many many years. I think this is an amazing advice that I certainly adopted.

    I've noticed that there's a lot of psychology behind evaluating if a stock is at a fair price. When I want to buy a new stock, I would be very critical of the price. I will look at all the metrics and compare it to other companies in its industry, etc. However, after I buy a stock, I'd be much less critical. For example, let's say Shopify today traded at ATH around $1800. I'd probably not buy the stock at it looks expensive and I might get it at a better price in the future. However, if I bought it a year ago at $900 I'd probably keep holding it at $1800 cause I believe it's a great company that will keep growing.

    Ignoring tax implications of holding vs selling (short vs long term gain), we can say that every time we decide to hold a stock we make a decision to buy it. Why do we more likely to hold than buy? I think that's because the psychology of making and losing money. If I buy Shopify at $1800 and tomorrow it goes down to $1600, I'll lose money. No one likes to lose money. If I bought it at $900 and it went to $1800 and then $1600, I'm still happy with my return.

    I think another reason for holding is that it's easier. If you sell you need to find something else to invest in that you think will give you better returns. Once we found a company that has given us nice returns we're happy with, it's just easier to keep betting on it, even though it doesn't always work (winners keep winning until they don't).

    I wonder how you deal with the hold or sell decision? Do you often take short term profits and exit a position unlike Buffet's advice to hold for many years? Do you alway set stop losses to ensure your profit doesn't go below a certain price? etc.

    submitted by /u/ravivg
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    Why isn't E-Trade listed in the info page here? Are they less desirable for some reason?

    Posted: 11 Sep 2021 11:58 AM PDT

    I'm kicking myself for not having started investing straight out of college (13 years ago), but better late than never, right? I've literally had E-Trade, Schwab and such websites bookmarked on chrome since then, just never pulled the trigger. I just downloaded the E-Trade app since it was $0 commission and had decent rating in the store. Figured I'd avoid Robinhood just cuz of the hate I saw over the meme stocks debacle, which I think their lower rating was a result of, lol. I'm obviously a new investor (apart from the 401k-esque plan at work) and I'm looking to start with safer buys until I understand balance sheets, leveraging, all that confusing stuff, better. Not day trading. All that to say, just today I opened this sub up and saw E-Trade wasn't one of the suggested trading platforms. Any reason(s) why?

    submitted by /u/SiRocket
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    Is now a good time to buy $AAPL? (Apple Inc.)

    Posted: 10 Sep 2021 10:43 PM PDT

    Apple perhaps is one of the most popular stock being the highest market cap and found it many investor's portfolio. After dipping due to the in-app purchase lawsuit with Epic Games, I couldn't resist and bought a few shares of my first $AAPL stock ~$150 planning to hold them for many years.

    Is $AAPL always a good buy at any price? Especially the iPhone 13 event is coming next week, it could dip even further and when Apple Car is ready it can be huge in the future EV market.

    What are your thoughts on $AAPL in the long term since their main source of revenue is currently from iPhones compared to Amazon as more diversified business?

    submitted by /u/guyastronomer
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    Rating Zacks Rating - Week 1

    Posted: 11 Sep 2021 08:49 AM PDT

    https://www.screencast.com/t/ogxplzJI9d

    I started a post a week ago to rate Zack's Rating (https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/pk1tbd/rating_zacks_rating/). I simulate as if I had put $100 into every stock I track in portfolios based on Zack's Rating.

    It was certainly a hard week for the stock market. The only "portfolio" that made money was if you had invested in all Zack's lowest "5- Strong Sell" rating. The worst performing portfolio was Zack's highest rating, "1- Strong Buy".

    1- Strong Buy -2.77%

    2- Buy -0.95%

    3- Hold -1.28%

    4- Sell -2.48%

    5- Strong Sell +1.98%

    submitted by /u/DerekPaxton
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    Thoughts on buying Leap Calls for Spy..?

    Posted: 11 Sep 2021 07:18 AM PDT

    Seems like a rather safe bet. I'm thinking of grabbing a 500c for September 2022. Never really gotten involved with options dated so far in the future. Just looking for other's views on the matter. Thanks all. Take care

    submitted by /u/letigerscaramel
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    Kroger CEO: Organized crime, supply chain issues compressed margins

    Posted: 10 Sep 2021 07:46 PM PDT

    Kroger (NYSE:KR) CEO Rodney McMullen said Friday that the gross margin compression that contributed to poor reception for the grocery chain's latest earnings report stemmed from supply-chain pressures and shoplifting that involved organized crime.

    Speaking to CNBC, McMullen also predicted 2%-3% inflation for the rest of the year for the company's inputs. He added that the chain can pass most of the costs associated with increased commodities prices to its customers.

    Kroger shares dropped more than 7% on Friday even though the company reported earnings and revenue that nominally topped expectations.

    The company's margins decreased by 60 basis points, and many investors apparently saw that as their cue to take profits on the stock after KR ran up 24% in the two months heading into the earnings report.

    McMullen told CNBC that half of the margin decline came as a result of disruptions in Kroger's supply chain, which drove up costs. The other half came from a rise in stolen products fueled by an increased prevalence of organized crime.

    McMullen said shoplifting by organized crime has become more prevalent in the past year or two. He added that he has been working with other retailers and law-enforcement authorities to counter the problem.

    The CEO suggested that technology might make it easier for criminals to sell their ill-gotten products, making "shrinkage" – the industry term for merchandise lost to theft – a bigger problem.

    "In the past, it would have been more flea markets, much harder to sell," he said. "[But] if you look at the current market, it's much easier to sell in the market."

    KR dropped $3.48 on Friday to close at $42.67. Shares had advanced from early July into last week, when the stock set a closing 52-week high of $47.31. KR also established an intraday 52-week peak of $47.99

    https://s eekingalpha.com/news/3738842-kroger-ceo-organized-crime-supply-chain-issues-compressed-margins

    submitted by /u/backup2thebackup2
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    At what point do you stop dollar cost averaging?

    Posted: 11 Sep 2021 01:59 PM PDT

    I've been bagholding $RNG for over a year now and it recently hit its 52 week low. I've been dollar cost averaging for a long time and I want to know what a "smart investor" would do in a situation like this. Keep dollar cost averaging or give up and focus on other stocks?

    My portfolio was pretty diverse until I started DCA and buying more shares of $RNG so now it's most of my portfolio.

    submitted by /u/dkwatkins28
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    Hedging by short selling?

    Posted: 11 Sep 2021 09:13 AM PDT

    I've got a bit of stock that is falling in price that I can't sell for 6 months (restricted due to SEC rule 144). Is it a bad idea to sell short the same number of shares and then close both positions after 6 months if I want to simply protect the overall value? I.e. I don't care that I won't get more money if the stock appreciates, I just don't want to lose if it continues to drop in price.

    My understanding that generally put options are used for hedging, but from what I can tell, this stock isn't traded widely and doesn't have a lot of options available. And I have very little experience with options anyway.

    submitted by /u/ohbearly
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    What's the difference between a crash and a correction?

    Posted: 11 Sep 2021 02:10 PM PDT

    A lot of people are saying that a 15%-30% correction might happen, but how is that not considered a crash?

    How do people draw the line?

    Is it how big it is or how long it stays down?

    Is it the amount of stocks involved or the collective cap of them?

    Is it just random?

    Because if a correction is just a drop that corrects in a few months, then they are still pretty bullish no?

    submitted by /u/Luised2094
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    Googl stock and the Apple court decision

    Posted: 11 Sep 2021 05:10 AM PDT

    Hi all

    We saw the dump with aaple after the court decision , although it's actually good for apple to leave that behind and a victory since no monopoly accusations stood. Why did googl tumbled along? I know there's a trial in one year for the same reasons but google play mkt share in the us is a lot lower than applestore and besides googl play allows more room for outside developers. Do You think this will be the start of a correction for Google since it's up 60% YTD?

    Thanks (Sorry for my English not a ntv spker)

    Disclosure: hold googl since 2012 and have some Jan ITM calls still green

    submitted by /u/your_mother_Is_next
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    Rising sentiment for Russian equities

    Posted: 11 Sep 2021 01:37 PM PDT

    I've been seeing a lot of bullish articles regarding Russian equities, even though—and let's get this out of the way immediately—obvious geopolitical and corruption risks remain.

    Reuters: Russian stocks to climb higher throughout 2022

    Russian stocks have been on the rise after collapsing in the first quarter of 2020 when the COVID-19 outbreak became global, gaining support from a recovery in oil prices, an easing risk of sanctions and an influx of retail investors.

    In addition to oil prices, a growing market of retail investors in Russia seems to be significant. We've all seen how much retail investors can affect the market these days.

    Not to mention, the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline finished the other day, but flows haven't started.

    WSJ: More Russian Companies Set to Join New York IPO Frenzy

    "The environment is quite conducive right now," Viktor Szabo, an investment director at Aberdeen Standard Investments in London. "Growth has been stable and tensions with the U.S. appear to have eased."

    Geopolitics is another key factor contributing to the Russian IPO renaissance. Though relations between the U.S. and Russia remain near their lowest since the Cold War, the summit in June between President Biden and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin alleviated some market concerns about tough new sanctions, investors say.

    Although geopolitical concerns should never be nonexistent with Russia, it seems they are at their lowest in years. If you pay attention to geopolitics news, you may have also noticed a rising popularity in geopolitical papers for the idea that the US should court Russia in order to counter China.

    Financial Times has also run articles about Russia's "market boom" and IPO spree as well as the bullish sentiment on Russia's massive agriculture industry:

    Investors have also noticed, attracted by the longer-term potential. Jim Rogers, who co-founded Quantum Fund with George Soros and is now a renowned bull on Russia and China, has invested in Russian fertilisers and agriculture via Phosagro and believes the sector's success is only starting.

    Also relevant is news that Russia's Sberbank is undertaking a push to become Russia's Amazon.

    iShares Russia ETF $ERUS is up 24% YTD while VanEck Russia ETF $RSX is up 23.44%. They have dividend yields of 4.12% and 2.72%, respectively.

    I had looked into these ETFs a couple years ago and wish that I had gotten in sooner.

    Gazprom is usually only available OTC for retail investors, but Yandex $YNDX is listed on American exchanges and is actually included in a number of ETFs involving technology like self-driving cars. Russian equities are not as far fetched as you may think.

    What are your thoughts on this news and have you taken an interest in Russian equities at all?

    submitted by /u/AristotleKarataev
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    How can I buy ASML stock?

    Posted: 11 Sep 2021 12:59 PM PDT

    I use Robinhood, and ASML Holding NV is not supported.

    Do any other brokers support buying and selling ASML? I.e., Fidelity, Schwab.

    Is there a way to determine which stocks are available for trading on a certain platform before creating an account?

    submitted by /u/Padfoot-and-Prongs
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    Online brokers as rates by Kiplinger’s

    Posted: 11 Sep 2021 08:39 AM PDT

    I come across this question in a lot of subs of what broker to use. Anyway they ranked/scored each from 1-9 in 8 categories. They rated mobile app highest at 20% weight due to more and more folks trading that way.

    Criteria was that the broker had to offer trading in stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, and individual bonds. That eliminated Robinhood, M1, and SoFi that don't offer mutual funds or the bonds.

    They do have a sub story on niche brokers that covers those not listed. And another one that is find the best broker for what matters most to you personally. Surprise that Firstrade was mentioned for best for options.

    Fidelity runs away with it. I am also a personal fan of Fidelity. In addition to what's in the article, they have all types of accounts, can do complex plans like 72(t) rule, all my accounts are linked to include my wife's accounts. Also can give trading authority for each other's accounts.

    kiplinger's rankings

    submitted by /u/toydan
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    Are platforms like Trading212, eToro and InteractiveBrokers legit for long-term investing?

    Posted: 11 Sep 2021 03:35 AM PDT

    I made some research and figured out they're all heavily regulated and filled with warnings, but as I'm investing from Europe (their European headquarters are mostly located in Cyprus & alike) I'm a little worried. What stops them from shutting the whole operation down and making a run? They would not be the first.

    I'm interested in buying a couple of stocks and ETFs and holding them at least for a couple of years. Will my assets be safe holding through their brokerage or should I find another alternative? At the moment I like Trading212 the most.

    Thanks for the help.

    submitted by /u/KTavas
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    Hi, I’d like to ask opinions on AT&T

    Posted: 11 Sep 2021 12:37 AM PDT

    I own 216 shares. Bought them several months ago as a dividend stock. Now I'm wondering if the stock is worth keeping since I read it was being cut, and because of whatever is happening with WarnerMedia . . Opinions and Advice appreciated!

    ETA: Thanks to all of you for the advice. Seems my hunch about not keeping it was right. And yeah I bought the stock right before the info came out about the dividend cut.

    submitted by /u/_TakeitEZ_
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    Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning September 13th, 2021

    Posted: 10 Sep 2021 05:34 PM PDT

    Good Friday evening to all of you here on r/stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.

    Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 13th, 2021.

    Markets brace for hot consumer inflation report in the week ahead - (Source)

    Investors are paying close attention to any reading on inflation these days, and the consumer price index will be the big one to watch in the coming week.

    The latest snapshot of the economy comes just a week before the Federal Reserve's important September meeting. At that meeting, the Fed is expected to discuss more details about its plan to taper down its bond buying program, or quantitative easing.

    Market professionals say a hotter inflation reading could speed up the Fed's plans to slow the $120 billion a month in bond purchases. The paring back of its asset purchase program would be the Fed's first major step away from the easy policy it put in place to combat the pandemic.

    The consumer price index is expected Tuesday, and there is retail sales data is released Thursday. They are expected to show consumer prices jumped at a 5.3% annual pace in August, according to the consensus estimate from FactSet, while the consumer continued to pull back from the high spending levels of earlier in the year.

    Hot CPI

    "If the CPI is hotter than expected, it could make the difference between a September announcement for tapering or waiting to November," Bleakley Advisory Group chief investment officer Peter Boockvar said.

    Economists expect CPI to rise at a 0.4% pace month over month. The report comes after August's producer price index — which was released Friday — showed a jump of 8.3% year over year, due in part to supply chain constraints.

    https://i.imgur.com/3ia6fMl.png

    The Fed's formal announcement about tapering its bond-buying program, also called QE, is widely expected in November or December. Many of those who had expected a September announcement pushed back their time frame to later in the year after August's employment report showed just 235,000 jobs added, about 500,000 less than expected.

    "Certainly the trend has been for the inflation number to come in above expectations. I think if that happens again, it will feed the narrative that high inflation is going to stick. Obviously, it's an issue for the bond market if it's viewed at all as accelerating the timing of the QE tapering, and or accelerating the timing of the first rate hike," CIBC Private Wealth U.S. chief investment officer David Donabedian said. That would be a negative for stocks.

    "If markets have an inflation mutiny here and there's volatility as a result, they could move it up to September," Donabedian said of the Fed's taper announcement. "But I think there's kind of a one in four likelihood in my view."

    Stagflation?

    That combination of higher inflation and slower spending, particularly after August's weaker jobs report, has spurred talk about the threat of stagflation. Those worries have also increased as economists ratchet back growth forecasts for the third quarter to a still high level just above 5%, from above 6%.

    "I'm more about the 'flation' side of it than the 'stag.' I think the economy is going to perform fine right through next year," Donabedian said. He said the slowdown in consumer spending after stimulus checks had boosted retail sales earlier in the year is not surprising and may be just a "short-term warning."

    "We had this explosive growth in retail sales early in the year as a direct result of stimulus payments and vaccines coming and a burst of consumer optimism. It's really settled down now," he said. "There was an enormous amount of liquidity and saving and they spent what they spent out of that extra amount of savings and you're going through a bit of a retracement here, which is why you're seeing economists mark down their third quarter estimates. Consumer fundamentals are pretty good."

    Barclays chief U.S. economist Michael Gapen said he expects the CPI report to show that inflation is peaking, just as the Fed has said. But he says the slowing trend is not just an issue for consumer spending. It is also showing up in business spending and housing.

    "With where labor markets are, August was a bit of an egg. But growth in employment has been solid on average, very robust over the course of the year," he said. "Even though employment disappointed in August, hours and and earnings were still pretty good. There's income there for consumers to spend. We're looking at this as a short-term hiccup."

    Gapen said third-quarter economic growth may be somewhat slower than expected. However, he said some of the lost growth could show up in the fourth quarter.

    "It has some characteristics of stagflation, but true stagflation is rising unemployment and rising inflation. We don't have that," he said. "These are bottlenecks that are kind of constraining the pace of the recovery and lead to higher inflation. Demand isn't the problem right now. Supply is. The unemployment rate is still coming down and employment is improving. It has the whiff but I wouldn't call it stagflation."

    https://i.imgur.com/tjC3emB.png

    Donabedian expects higher prices and shortages to continue into next year, as supply chains keep getting disrupted. Some companies, including PPG and General Electric, have already commented on how they see issues with supplies stretching into 2022. Donabedian expects to see more warnings ahead of the third-quarter earnings season.

    Stocks were lower this week, with the S&P 500 losing 1.7% to 4,458. The closely watched 10-year Treasury yield has held above 1.3% and was at 1.33% on Friday.

    A number of strategists expect to see the stock market pullback during the typically choppy September and October period. Some say the Fed's September meeting could be a catalyst, especially if the central bank sounds particularly hawkish.

    https://i.imgur.com/IP5Vq9T.png

    "We're up over 30% in 2019, over 18% last year and over 21% in the first months of this year," Donabedian said. "These are unsustainable rates or return. ...Our takeaway is it's going to get tougher from here. Valuations are somewhat extended and this whole incredibly supportive policy framework is going to get a little less friendly."

    Now watch Congress

    Donabedian said it will be important to watch discussions in Congress as it begins to put details around the infrastructure spending and what type of tax increases will be proposed to pay for it.

    "They're going to start to fill in the blanks on where the money is going to be spent and what taxes and tax rates are going to be written into the legislation," he said. "It's the overall corporate tax rate, it's the tax on foreign earned income, capital gains rates and dividend tax rate. These are big investor related issues."

    He said the market has been ignoring the tax issue. "Those sort of issues went quiet over the summer but it's back full bore over the next two weeks. It will get a lot of attention."

    The tax decisions could have big implications for corporate earnings, which have been a big driver of the stock market's gains. "One very direct way that could go wrong is if you get a large set of tax increases that go into effect in 2022. That's a direct hair cut," he said.

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    S&P Sectors for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Indices for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

    Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!]())

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #4!)

    Beige Book Decelerates As Delta Impact Widens

    Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve updated its twice-quarterly qualitative assessment of the economy based on conversations with business contacts across the twelve regional districts. For each Beige Book release, we apply a natural language processing algorithm to assess the relative frequency of positive versus negative words, giving us a quantitative comparison of Beige Books over time. As shown in the chart below, our index of Beige Book activity has fallen from record levels recorded back in June to elevated but much more modest levels in September. That's consistent with the Fed's description of "moderate" growth thanks to the impact of the Delta variant.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    In the second chart below, we show the relationship between GDP growth and our Beige Book Index from above. As shown, the current reading of our index equates to GDP growth of a bit less than 4% YoY. But keep in mind that extreme base effects are still driving wild YoY GDP readings. With that in mind, the Beige Book Index appears to be showing above-trend but decelerating growth, when accounting for base effects of the extremely low GDP reading from Q2 of 2020.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Most Heavily Shorted Stocks

    Over the course of 2021, we have seen some aggressive short squeezes, resulting in turmoil for certain financial institutions and millions in profits for some retail traders. The "reddit army" has gone after multiple stocks, most notably Game Stop (GME) and AMC (AMC). Let's dive into the 25 companies in the Russell 3,000 currently with the highest short interest as a percentage of float. Of these 25 companies, only 8 have experienced positive returns in 2021, and 6 have seen their share price half. Since GameStop peaked in late January, 20 of the companies on this list have lost value, and 9 have seen their equity trade down by 50%. Since AMC's peak in early June, 7 companies have seen price appreciation, and zero have seen their value decrease by 50%.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    The average short interest as a percentage of float for the entirety of the Russell 3,000 is 3.46%, but certain sectors have much higher proportional short interest than others. Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, and Real Estate have the highest, while Utilities, Financials, and Consumer Staples have the lowest. High levels of short interest is a sign of negative investor sentiment, but certain sectors will consistently have higher figures due to the riskiness of their business models.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    To dive deeper, let's look at the average short interest in each industry. Retail, Pharma & Biotech, and Consumer Services have the highest levels, while Banks, Tech Hardware, and Utilities have the lowest levels. The average short interest in the retailing industry is more than three times higher than that of banks for companies in the Russell 3,000.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Although there are many exceptions to the rule, in 2021 equities with higher short interest have generally underperformed the remainder of the Russell 3,000. The average return for equities with short interest between zero and ten percent were higher than that of equities with 33%+ short interest.

    To support this, let's undergo a decile analysis. The stocks in the top 20% in terms of short interest have significantly underperformed the rest of the Russell 3,000 since GME hit its highs. While the equities in the bottom 20% of short interest have averaged a 22.23% return since January 27th (GameStop's top), the top 20% of most heavily shorted stocks have declined by 1.40% on average.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Largest 25 Stocks in the S&P 500, Now vs 20 Years Ago

    Yesterday, we took a look at the makeup of the S&P 500's largest 25 companies in 2021 and compared it to that of 10 years ago. Today, we will be extending the study to 2001, twenty years ago right before the 9/11 attacks. On the day before 9/11, the sectors with the largest number of components in the top 25 in terms of market cap were Consumer Staples, Health Care, Technology, Financials, and Communication Services. While all of these sectors still hold a spot in the current top 25 list, the makeup has shifted substantially. Energy and Industrials, which each accounted for 8% of the top 25 companies in 2001, now have zero representation in today's list. Consumer Staples also reduced its count from five to two.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Only four companies that made up the list of top 25 names in September 2001 remain on the list today. Those four companies are Microsoft (MSFT), J&J (JNJ), Walmart (WMT), and Pfizer (PFE). The average return of these four equities, excluding dividends, is 221.81% with a median of 129.58%. While the turnover of this list has been high over the last 20 years, every member of this list is still in operation today, but two have been undergone mergers (Time Warner & Royal Dutch Petroleum). Interestingly enough, the members of this list have approximately the same proportionate makeup of the S&P 500, with only a 1.89% increase in the weightings of the top 25 stocks now relative to September 2001.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    The US economy today is far different than it was in 2001. As it has changed, some companies have adapted and experienced massive growth, while others have been left in the dust. Apart from the two companies that are no longer independently publicly traded, the average return of the 25 largest companies from 2001 is 92.94% with a median return of 49.08%. Over that same period, the S&P 500 has returned 310.61%.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    September Seasonal Pattern: Weakness After Mid-Month

    September is the final month of the third quarter and historically it is essentially tied with August as worst month of the year. Since 1950, September is ranked last for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1971) and Russell 1000 (since 1979). Small caps, measured by the Russell 2000, have fared slightly better, but historical average performance is still negative. Over the last 21 years, September has generally opened tepidly with mixed performance depending on index with Russell 2000 often rising the most through mid-month. However after mid-month, any gains have tended to fade quickly and turn into losses by month's end. Sizable losses in 2001, 2002, 2008 and 2011 weigh heavily on average performance.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    September quarterly option expiration week: S&P 500 up 13 of last 18

    September's option expiration week is up 59.0% of the time for S&P 500 since 1982. DJIA and NASDAQ have slightly weaker track records with gains 53.8% of the time and 56.4% of the time respectively. However, the week has suffered several sizable losses. The worst loss followed the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001. In the last eighteen years, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are tied for best record during September's option expiration week, up thirteen times. Friday had been firm with all three indices advancing every year 2004 to 2011, but S&P 500 has been down eight of the last nine since.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    What Could Happen The Rest of the Year to Stocks and Bonds?

    This week in the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, Ryan Detrick and Lawrence Gillum discussed global central bank policy, recently weakening economic data, and where stocks and bonds could go the remainder of this year.

    In today's blog we will focus on their discussion on stocks and bonds.

    The S&P 500 Index was up more than 20% by the end of August for the first time since 1997 and it has made a new high every single month this year so far (9 for 9). Incredibly, it made 53 new highs before August was over, the most ever. Any way you slice it, this year is historic for the bulls.

    The catch (and there's always a catch) is the S&P 500 hasn't pulled back 5% all year, with the last 5% pullback last October. Not to mention September is the worst month for stocks the past 10 years, 20 years, and since 1950.

    But history says that great starts to a year tend to see continued strength the final four months. "Looking at the previous top 10 starts to a year ever, the final four months have gained eight times," explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. "So should we see any seasonal weakness, we'd use it as an opportunity to buy before likely continued strength."

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, 2021 ranks as the 6th best start to a year ever. The previous top 10 best starts to a year averaged a return of 4.0% the rest of the year, with a very solid median return 5.4%.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Turning to bonds, we continue to expect higher yields due to the growth and inflation outlook, with a target of 1.75% on the 10-year treasury yield by year end. This of course could pressure bonds, as they trade inversely with yields.

    From a portfolio point of view, we would keep overall interest rate sensitivity muted and favor mortgage-backed securities and short- to intermediate-maturity investment grade corporates. As a result of our higher rates call, we suggest being underweight longer maturity high grade corporates or long-term treasuries, which are more sensitive to rising rates. So sum it up, taking a more of a defensive posture as it relates to interest rate sensitivity makes a lot of sense the remainder of 2021.

    Also, the potential this week for a European Central Bank (ECB) announcement on tapering could push European yields higher, which in turn could push U.S. yields higher as well.

    STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending September 10th, 2021

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

    STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9.12.21

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

    Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

    • (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
    ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

    ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!]())

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

    Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

    Monday 9.13.21 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Monday 9.13.21 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 9.14.21 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 9.14.21 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 9.15.21 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 9.15.21 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE.)

    Thursday 9.16.21 Before Market Open:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE.)

    Thursday 9.16.21 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE.)

    Friday 9.17.21 Before Market Open:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE.)

    Friday 9.17.21 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE.)

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    DISCUSS!

    What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

    I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/stocks. :)

    submitted by /u/bigbear0083
    [link] [comments]

    Pharma stocks are extremely volatile

    Posted: 11 Sep 2021 08:53 AM PDT

    I keep telling people here that pharma stocks are extremely volatile and unpredictable.

    Seeking Alpha list of stocks that yesterday went up or down big-time. ALL ON THE LIST BELOW ARE PHARMA STOCKS. List of best stocks only 1 pharma stock.

    Top Stock Losers Mersana Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:MRSN) -41%. Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:APLS) -44%. Virpax Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:VRPX) -39%. Impel Neuropharma Inc (NASDAQ:IMPL) -30%. Rxsight Inc (NASDAQ:RXST) -12%.

    Top Stock Gainers Hippo Holdings Inc (NYSE:HIPO) +34%. Ge/vo Inc (NASDAQ:GE/VO) +11%. Rocket Lab USA Inc (NASDAQ:RKLB) +61%. Consonance-Hfw Acq Corp (NASDAQ:SRZN) +39%. Monopar Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:MNPR) +9%.

    submitted by /u/NPRjunkieDC
    [link] [comments]

    Can you get charged a fee for buying an ADR stock on a $0 commission brokerage sites?

    Posted: 10 Sep 2021 10:09 PM PDT

    This may or may not be the right sub for such a question. If not I guess the auto-mods will do their thing.

    Anyway, I bought two XPEV shares (separately) on Fidelity and was charged for it. Fidelity said the charge didn't originate from them and it was probably from the oversea agency overseeing the XPEV stock. The agent wasn't clear on that part.

    Was wondering if anyone has experienced this before. Buying an ADR share and getting charged for it.

    submitted by /u/Meanie_Cream_Cake
    [link] [comments]

    Corporate buybacks: does anyone know how to track details?

    Posted: 11 Sep 2021 05:37 AM PDT

    I am assuming that some seemingly-sensational pumps in stocks (by that I mean 20-50% increase steadily in 1-4 weeks) might have to do with corporate buybacks.

    How, specifically, do the buybacks happen, when, on the open market or off-exchange B2B, etc?

    Is it announced in advance what the details will be?

    Or, do corporations have someone sitting in an office forcing buy orders all day to pump their price?

    As I learn more about valuations and related things, the more I see irrationality in steady price pumps and do not believe any rational person or entity would continue to buy at the inflated prices… and yet stock is bought… so I'm wondering if there is a way to figure out if the buy action is the company doing a buyback (because—if so—there is nothing to counter that).

    submitted by /u/peachezandsteam
    [link] [comments]

    Trend line to end at point in future?

    Posted: 10 Sep 2021 11:12 PM PDT

    Hi all, I wonder if anyone can help. I cant for the life of me figure out how to draw a trend line that starts at a certain point in the past (that part i can do) that ends at a certain point in the future where that end point shows the price at that future point. For instance the SP500, I want to draw a trend line from the 2020 lows to the end of this year to see what the predicted price will be at the end of this year. This is just out of interest, and not me trying to predict the future price. Thank you.

    submitted by /u/Vega10000
    [link] [comments]
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