Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Sep 17, 2021 |
- r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Sep 17, 2021
- Is waiting for a dip the best strategy? - I analyzed last 3 decades of market returns to determine if it makes sense to time the market!
- What's going on with Nintendo (NTDOY)?
- Genuine question about Meme Valuations Vs. "Real Stocks"
- Quick Reminder: Many Stock youtubers have financial incentive to keep you watching daily so they steer you toward short term trades.
- Is it smart to invest on physical copper?
- Here is a Market Recap for today Friday, Sept 17, 2021
- I want to put about 400 a week into one stock/etf for the next few months as I save for a big purchase. What would you pick in my position?
- Can we talk about Dutchbros ($BROS) for a sec?
- Stock options when negotiating compensation for a new job
- SPRT/GREE merger
- U.S. stock futures struggle as options expiries loom and S&P 500 fights to hold on to a weekly gain
- Stocks to buy before tapering.
- Is it a good time to invest in metals and mining industry?
- Day trading- anything I should know?
- advice needed
- BNPL firm Sezzle to list on the US.
- How to find INRT, OPAD, SPRT before they explode?
- Morning Update for Friday, 09/17/21
- Robinhood's "Confirm your tax status" email. I don't have a job, what do I do?
- What do you do when your stocks are falling?
- PTON oversold this week
- Best way to educate myself on stocks?
| r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Sep 17, 2021 Posted: 17 Sep 2021 02:30 AM PDT This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on fundamentals, but if fundamentals aren't your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against fundamentals here and not in the current post. Some helpful day to day links, including news:
Most fundamentals are updated every 3 months due to the fact that corporations release earnings reports every quarter, so traders are always speculating at what those earnings will say, and investors may change the size of their holdings based on those reports. Expect a lot of volatility around earnings, but it usually doesn't matter if you're holding long term, but keep in mind the importance of earnings reports because a trend of declining earnings or a decline in some other fundamental will drive the stock down over the long term as well. See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki: If you have a basic question, for example "what is EBITDA," then google "investopedia EBITDA" and click the Investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned. Useful links:
See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Posted: 17 Sep 2021 06:24 AM PDT We have all heard it! -- "Time in the market beats timing the market" At the same time, we are all to some extent guilty of trying to time the market. The market always seems to break some new all-time high records, so we wait for the inevitable crash/pullback to invest. It's high time we put both strategies to test. Basically, what I wanted to analyze was Whether waiting for a crash to invest is a better investment strategy than staying invested? Analysis For this, let's take someone who started investing approximately 3 decades back (1993 to be exact). I created multiple investment scenarios as follows to understand the difference in returns if you a. Invested at the exact right time when markets were lowest that particular year b. Was extremely unlucky and just invested at the peak every year c. Did not care about timing the market and invested at a random date every year d. Just hoarded his cash and waited for a market crash to invest [1] For analysis simplicity, let's assume that you were on a conservative side and never picked individual stocks, and always made your investments to S&P500 [2]. For investment amount, let consider that you started with investing $10K in 1993 and for every subsequent year increased your investments by 5%. So, you made a total investment of $623K over the last 29 years. Results Investment Returns : S&P 500 (1993-2021)
The analysis did throw up some interesting results. There's a lot to unpack here and let's break it down by each segment. The most important insight is that it's virtually impossible to lose money over the long term in the market [3]. Even if you were the unluckiest person and invested exactly at the very top each year, you will still end up having a 263% return on your invested amount. At the opposite end of the spectrum, if you were somehow the luckiest person and invested only at the lowest point every year, you would have made a cool 100% more than someone who invested only at the top. Given both the hypothetical scenarios are extreme cases, let's consider some more realistic scenarios. If you did not care about timing the market and invested a fixed amount each month/year, you would still make a shade over 300% on your investments. Out of all the above scenarios, you would have made the most amount of money (a whopping 391% return) if you invested only during major crashes. In this type of investing, you would not invest in the stock market and keeps accumulating your cash position waiting for a crash. While this seems like a good idea, in theory, it's extremely difficult to execute properly in real life. The main limitations to investing during a crash strategy are a. The current returns are calculated by investing at the very bottom of the crashes. It's very difficult to identify the bottom of the crash while a crash is happening. You can end up investing midway through the crash and given that you are investing a significant chunk of capital you saved up, it can end up wiping out your portfolio. b. Identifying a crash itself is very hard As we can see from the above chart, the years that we consider were great for the market in hindsight still had significant drops within the same year. So even when the market is down 10%, it becomes extremely difficult to know whether it's going into a deeper crash or whether it's going to bounce back up. Conclusion While the analysis did prove that waiting for the crash is theoretically the best strategy returns-wise, practically it's very difficult to execute it. For e.g., even if you predicted the 2020 Coronavirus crash correctly, where would be your entry point? The market was down 15% by Mar 6th, another 10% by Mar 13th, and then another 10% by March 20th for a total of 35%. If you did not get in at the absolute bottom, you would have lost a considerable sum of your investment without actually getting any benefits from the previous run-up. It is extremely enticing to be the guy who called the crash correctly and even if you are right, only getting in at the absolute bottom would only give you the best returns. Adding to this, in the last 20 years, 70% of the best days in the market happened within 14 days of the worst ones [4]. If you miss just any of those days waiting for an entry point, your returns would be substantially lower than someone who just stayed invested. If you think you are in the select few who have the skills to identify a crash and the temperament to see the crash through to invest at the very bottom, you will make an absolute killing in the market! For the rest of us, continuous investment regardless of the market trends seems to be the better choice. Data used in the analysis: here Footnotes [1] I have considered the following crashes for the analysis: Dotcom crash (2000), Sep 11 (2001), market downturn 2002, Housing market crash (2008), 2011 stock market fall, 2015–16 stock market selloff, 2018 crypto crash, Corona Virus crash (2020) [2] The data for the adjusted close for S&P 500 from 1993 to 2021 was obtained from Yahoo Finance API. The main reason for only going back till 1993 is that Yahoo Finance had only data till 1993. [3] There was an interesting study done by Blackrock that proved the same as shown in the chart below [4] 70% of the best days in the market happened within 14 days of the worst ones (Source: JP Morgan) 263.1ways, please note that I am not a financial advisor. Hope you enjoyed this week's analysis! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| What's going on with Nintendo (NTDOY)? Posted: 17 Sep 2021 08:17 AM PDT Disclosure: I am NOT long on Nintendo, but would very much like to be. Today, I noticed that NTDOY was nearing its 52-week low ($56.72, currently at $60), and I decided it may be a good time to buy some shares, as I'm generally bullish on Nintendo. I try to aim for companies that dominate a sub-sector of their related market, and Nintendo appears to have very much done that with the handheld gaming market. However, upon checking their ticker this morning, I noticed a strange pattern over the past 10 days (10 min candles), shown at the bottom of this pic. (This pic isn't going to be too friendly to those of you on mobile, so I apologize.) Firstly, the ADX seems to be making wild swings every day, with OTO Buying dominating one day, and the OTO Selling dominating the next day (shown at the bottom.) This seems to have no effect on the price however, which seems to tank OTO everyday, after opening |1-2|% away from prior close. This pattern starts around 9/1-9/3. Secondly, the price has regular major disparities between Close and Open, without any significant extended hours trading. I've seen major hops like this happening on meme stocks, but that's usually when paired with a lot more extended hours trading. Lastly, there appears to be some major institutional sell-off on 9/9 and 9/15. When I check the institutional holding via Fidelity, I see -0.1%. How is this possible? Would short positions result in "negative holdings"? Why are institutions so bearish on Nintendo? I mean, their stock has had its hard times in the past, but - IMO - they've demonstrated how their "missteps" can lead to great things (without the Wii and Wii U, there wouldn't be a Switch.) I read that Nintendo recently did a share buyback. Would that cause this type of price action? If not, what would? Do institutional traders just hate video games? What's going on with NTDOY? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Genuine question about Meme Valuations Vs. "Real Stocks" Posted: 17 Sep 2021 03:28 AM PDT How come the videogame Stock is sitting at a circa 8 billion valuation with some 4 billion in revenue a year,and its called a crazy valuation whereas things like Zoom or Snap have an 80 billion Market Cap with a measly revenue of 1 billion (Zoom) and its a normal or not so crazy valuation. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Posted: 17 Sep 2021 01:21 PM PDT If they told you invest in an index fund or buy and hold the best of FAANG+MSFT/NVDA. There would be no reason to watch their videos daily. Or their market open and close live streams. The views are how they make their money. Meet Kevin for example makes millions each month off the views. So these financial youtubers talk about short term plays and high frequency trading so once one play is over you come back for the next. Or they talk about 5, 10, etc stocks they are buying each week. Yes there is money made in swing/day trading there is also people who lose a lot of money and dont talk about it so you just here from the winners. Im just trying to say those youtubers arent there for long term advice. Some even do horrible stuff like have 50% of portfolio in TSLA or say they are buying options and will dump them into shares after the stock market has a rally that shouldnt be followed. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Is it smart to invest on physical copper? Posted: 17 Sep 2021 03:08 AM PDT I have been investing in copper since last year to add to my profile and made sure to diversify. I have the bigger ones like FCX and BHP, investing on them to make sure I got some stocks that are sure and secure in my perspective. When it comes to juniors, I only have two which includes Fortitude Gold and Solaris Resources. Both are performing really well with Fortitude Gold (FTCO), despite being a small producer, has no debts. They reported positive metallurgical test results from its Golden Mile property with column leach tests reporting up to 85% gold recovery. Solaris Resources on the other hand, boasts the Warintza project in Ecuador, which makes Solaris an acquisition opportunity. They have shown great potential with the release of results of their recent drillings, which includes their maiden drilling at El Trinche. A peer has been telling me to invest on physical metals as well, but I'm still contemplating if I should do it. I have no experience with physical metals so I am still a little clueless about it. Any thoughts on what to do guys? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Here is a Market Recap for today Friday, Sept 17, 2021 Posted: 17 Sep 2021 01:48 PM PDT PsychoMarket Recap - Friday, September 17, 2021 Stocks declined today, reversing from yesterday's gain given today was a quadruple witching event and market participants continue to digest a slew of new economic data and the potential implications for monetary policy. The S&P 500 (SPY) closed 0.97% down, the Nasdaq (QQQ) closed 1.19% down, and the Dow Jones (DIA) closed 0.53% down. As of today's close, September is headed for its first negative month all year. Today was the quarterly quadruple witching, an event wherein individual stock options and futures, and index options and futures, all expire the same day. Typically, this event has elevated volume and volatility on the day and days leading up to it. Definitely one of the reasons for today's decline. With the coronavirus Delta variant fanning fears of a slowdown in growth in the US and China, market participants have been carefully weighing incoming economic data. In the US, August retail sales showed an unexpected rise despite the latest surge of coronavirus Delta variant cases. The Commerce Department's August retail sales report showed overall sales rose by 0.7% on the month after a downwardly revised 1.8% drop in July. Consensus economists were looking for a 0.7% drop. A few days ago, China's retail sales report showed a dramatic slowdown in growth as the country battles rising coronavirus cases and seasonal floodings, with output and sales reaching a one-year low. Consumer spending grew 2.5% in the month of August, a sharp deceleration from the 8.5% growth in July and missing estimates of 7% growth. Industrial production rose 5.3% in August from a year earlier, narrowing from an increase of 6.4% in July and marking the weakest pace since July 2020, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday. Output growth missed the 5.8% increase tipped by analysts. All the recent data will factor into the Federal Reserve's latest assessment of the economy, which is set to be released next week via the meeting minutes. Market participants are anxiously waiting to see if the incoming meeting minutes have a signal regarding the timing to announce plans to begin tapering the pace of quantitative easing. Mark Luschini, Chief Investment Strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, said "I think it's really a tug of war at the moment that is underway, which is to say, there's still good news on the economy. In fact, in the last two days, we've gotten some good regional Fed survey reports and today's retail sales number. But at the same time, it's in the context of this overall deceleration of growth we've seen so far in the third quarter [and] worries about the Delta variant." Highlights
"To bear trials with a calm mind robs misfortune of its strength and burden." - Seneca [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Posted: 17 Sep 2021 06:45 AM PDT Looking for something very safe, with a minimal risk of losing money, but a somewhat reasonable chance of some sort of growth (okay if this isn't going to be a massive %) I'm currently thinking i'll invest into SPY, but curious to hear what others think. I have another portfolio filled primarily with growth stocks that lay dividends, which is my long term investment plan. This is intended to be shorter term, primarily a place to put money that I can't easily pull out for more frivolous spending, but ideally a way to grow that money even slightly. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Can we talk about Dutchbros ($BROS) for a sec? Posted: 17 Sep 2021 01:00 PM PDT Hey all. I'm a lifelong Oregonian, excited by the prospect of getting in on Dutch Bros continued expansion as a publicly traded entity. I've met thousands of diehard Db fans, and lived in Portland for more than a decade watching more and more locations pop-up all around me. I'd like to buy into a long term hold, but I'd also like to leave it unmanaged for potentially decades. Here's the thing, that valuation is disgusting. I am very bullish about the company, but my price target is way more in the $16 - $18 range on the stock. I like the future, but presently I think a nearly 300x p/e is a little rough for a coffee cart, you know? I guess I'd just like to know some opinions on how some of you more experienced investors might be viewing the ticker. When Starbucks took off in the 90s and popped up on every street corner, what was that like for short-midterm value, p/e, etc.? And can this company really be compared with $Sbux circa 1996? Is that a fair model to reference? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Stock options when negotiating compensation for a new job Posted: 17 Sep 2021 12:54 PM PDT How does that work? Obviously I know what a stock option is for a retail trader, but if I'm in an interview, what vocabulary should I use to ask about stock options? Is it different for jobs that you don't need to actually purchase an option contract with the assumption of 100 shares? This is how I'm anticipating the conversation going. "Is there an option for employees to buy common stock at a discount?" "How long until your stocks are vested? Is it a 4 year vestment period?" Any insight would be appreciated :) Thanks! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Posted: 17 Sep 2021 09:57 AM PDT If you had $SPRT shares, after the $SPRT - $GREE merger you are supposed to receive: for 1 SPRT share - $23.24, 2 - $46.47, 3 - $69.71, 4 - $92.94, 5 - $116.18, 6 - $139.41, 7 - $162.65, 8 - $185.88, 9 - 1 share of $GREE + $7.07, 10 - 1 share of $GREE + $30.3065, etc. (The amoung of $GREE shares calculated by 0.115 plus cash-in-lieu for the remaining fraction of a share calculated by the formula you'll find in ReverseSplitArbitrage twit.) It's likely that you were not paid the correct amount of $ yet, but ReverseSplitArbitrage is working to get this done as the company said in SEC filing they'll do (you can check the details in his twit). [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| U.S. stock futures struggle as options expiries loom and S&P 500 fights to hold on to a weekly gain Posted: 17 Sep 2021 06:30 AM PDT A week of seesaw trading has left all three major indexes with gains of around 0.4% or slightly less for the week through Thursday. Some of that volatility may be blamed on the run-up to Friday's "quadruple witching," the simultaneous expiration of individual stock options, stock-index options, stock-index futures and single-stock futures. The pause in stock futures also came a day after data showing stronger-than-expected retail sales, but a jump in weekly jobless claims, all ahead of next week's two-day Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting.A busy week of data included softer-than-expected consumer prices on Tuesday, which left both the Dow and S&P 500 lower, as investors fretted that underlying price pressures may not ease up. And while While Street firms have expressed nervousness as stocks grind higher, Ozkardeskaya said a correction is being prevented by "the fear of missing out a further rally in equities, the so-called FOMO, and the fact that there is no alternative, the so-called TINA." While the U.S. 10-year yield is now above 1.30%, an advance to 2% that many forecast earlier this year has yet to happen, the analyst said, adding that "the high inflationary pressures leave investors with no place to go but the equities. Therefore, the U.S. indices will continue claiming new highs in the coming sessions." Shares of Invesco IVZ, -2.58% were up 6% in premarket trading after The Wall Street Journal, citing sources, reported that the investment management group is in merger talks with State Street Corp.'s STT, -0.99% asset-management unit. State Street shares were unchanged. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Stocks to buy before tapering. Posted: 17 Sep 2021 02:05 PM PDT Almost all of my portfolio is in tech stocks and I am afraid of correction in tech industry especially because of taper. What stocks will benefit from taper? I think financial stocks will benefit because bond yields will rise after tapering, but I am not sure [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Is it a good time to invest in metals and mining industry? Posted: 17 Sep 2021 03:14 AM PDT Yesterday was a bad day for many precious and/or industrial metals and mining companies. Many dropped up to 12% in less than a day, though it has been a downwards trend in the sector for the last months. I took a look at some of the dropping stocks and three caught my attention so far: all of them
Do you think it is a good time to buy any of all of the above stocks? Please share your opinion. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Day trading- anything I should know? Posted: 17 Sep 2021 11:11 AM PDT I have the Robin Hood app (I know I know),if I x amount of shares at 8am and at 11 am I made a considerable profit and decide to pull all my shares, is this allowed? Will I set off any alarms? Can I continue doing this? I read that supposedly I have to have 25,000 to day trade? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Posted: 17 Sep 2021 11:09 AM PDT Hi everyone. I am new to the world of stocks and I plan to buy some and maintain them longterm. I am currently located in US as an international student. What is the best way to go about purchasing them and do I have to pay taxes on both the stock purchases and dividends earned? Are there any additional taxes? Is there anything I should look out or be careful about? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| BNPL firm Sezzle to list on the US. Posted: 16 Sep 2021 10:46 PM PDT Right now, buy-now pay-later (BNPL) is currently the hottest trend in fintech at the moment, due to it's incredible growth rate. ASX: SZL is about to list on the US markets. Affirm has been hitting new highs daily, trading at 30x revenue multiples. Goldman Sachs acquired the BNPL GreenSky today. Square acquired Afterpay recently too, with Paypal making similar acquisitions. Sezzle is currently listed on the ASX with around $1B market capitalization and they trade at around 7x revenue multiples, as the ASX is very conservative, since SZL is loss-making (like AFRM). They submitted their S-1 registration form with the SEC on August 23rd, so they are poised to list on the US indices later this year. 156% YoY revenue growth. 40,000 merchants. $1.5B GMV. 3M consumers. Based in US, Canada, Brazil, India and the EU. https://www.afr.com/street-talk/goldman-sachs-to-underwrite-sezzle-s-us-float-20210823-p58l35 [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| How to find INRT, OPAD, SPRT before they explode? Posted: 16 Sep 2021 07:36 PM PDT Obviously now every other wsb post is about INRT or OPAD, just waiting to draw losers in to lose their mortgages. But is there a way to find stock DDs like INRT or OPAD before they actually exploded? there were probably like 2 or 3 posts on each, but they were buried under thousands of shitposts. Is there a way to filter them, rather than stat checking 3000 shit DDs a day? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Morning Update for Friday, 09/17/21 Posted: 17 Sep 2021 05:40 AM PDT Good morning everyone. Enjoy your Friday, and take it easy this weekend. This list is geared towards day trading. With the momentum watchlist especially, I am typically in and out very quickly, only occasionally longer than a couple minutes, usually faster scalps. Always have a plan when you enter a trade (for profit taking and for taking a loss), and use proper risk management for your account. Main Watchlist: Gapping UP:
Gapping DOWN:
Market Outlook: Stocks are looking to open a bit lower this morning after we have seen some indecision in the last few days of trading. We have seen some choppiness this week, and today should be no different. We saw pretty good numbers for August retail sales, but I'm still worried about the negative catalysts that could potentially influence the market, particularly a slowdown in growth. The Fed has said they will likely taper their asset purchase program before the end of the year. Powell has said this will not immediately raise interest rates, but I think we could see a reaction from the overall market. SPY is currently trading right a bit over 445, and has recovered off the premarket lows which tested the 444.50 support level. If we break down back below that level, we could see more red today. If we can hold up and see a bounce, I'll be watching price action around the 446 resistance level. DIA is trading a bit over 347. With support at 346 and resistance up near 350, I'll be watching to see if we can break out of that range either today or next week. As of now, I'd expect it to test support. QQQ is trading just under 378. If it sees weakness, it could retest the ~375 support. If it sees some strength, I'll be watching for movement back up to 380 resistance. Gold and silver are up this morning, while crude oil is pulling back a bit after the recent strength. B**coin is currently trading around 47,500, and I'll be watching price action closely today. I'll be watching for a break out of the 46,700-48,500 range, and will be watching cr**to stocks closely when B**coin is close to those levels. Cr**to-related stocks are somewhat mixed in premarket trading. Airlines are looking bearish in the near-term, unless they can break out of the current downtrend on the daily charts. Meme stocks are worth keeping an eye on to end the week. I'll be watching to see if GME can hold up over the 200 level. Remember to use proper risk management, by making sure you size appropriately for your account and have a plan for every trade you enter (both for taking profits and cutting losses). Happy trading everyone :) [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Robinhood's "Confirm your tax status" email. I don't have a job, what do I do? Posted: 17 Sep 2021 10:22 AM PDT I don't have a job and haven't had one for quite a while because I've been taking care of a sick relative, what do I do? When I click on the link, "I am not subject to backup withholding" is already checked for me. Do I leave it checked, or do I uncheck it and press "Accept"? Any help would be appreciated. Thank you. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| What do you do when your stocks are falling? Posted: 17 Sep 2021 01:08 PM PDT So, a bit of context: for my first investment ever I decided to buy Apple because I wanted to take advantage of the dip caused by the Epic lawsuit. This also happened two days before the Apple Event and I thought the stock would have gone high for some easy, free money. I bought $AAPL on 09/13 at 149.91 each and it turns out, the stock is free falling since then. Happens, I guess. Now, I'm not here to ask anything specifically related to $AAPL, rather I'd like some advice about mindset and strategy. As I said, my goal was short term gain. Aside my plan's failure, was $AAPL a bad choice to begin with? Also, would it be better to hold and hope for long term returns, or to cut the losses and buy something else? I understand I'm probably being naive, go easy on me 😔 [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Posted: 17 Sep 2021 09:16 AM PDT I'm not sure why PTON keeps dropping this week when there's a lot of positive news on the horizon. The apparel announcement caused a deserved bump in the stock but all week it's been down. On the good news front, there's apparently a rower in the pipeline and yesterday they accidentally leaked that an interactive hardware device (Peloton Guide) that you connect to your TV is imminent. They filmed a class (and accidentally put it online before it was taken down again) where they reference the Peloton Guide and the instructor says to check your form on it if you have one. So the announcement could come at any time. https://www.pelobuddy.com/peloton-guide-camera-teased/ I am long PTON and looking for this downtrend to turn around in the next week or so. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Best way to educate myself on stocks? Posted: 17 Sep 2021 08:01 AM PDT To put it simple… I'm very motivated and willing to take some L's since I'm used to it anyway. I have $1,000 sitting in $MVIS. Should I just leave it in? Should I sell off half the loss and move it elsewhere for growth? I want to gain every day and make trading something I can do in the moment. I have no clue about options or anything, it can be confusing to me. I'm willing to put in the time and effort to learn, but where should I start? [link] [comments]  |
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