Stock Market - Why the hell nobody gave SPRT a chat in the last week?? 100%?? Thanks......

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• Why the hell nobody gave SPRT a chat in the last week?? 100%?? Thanks......
• I’m 15 years old and have been investing since late April. Wondering if I’m doing good so far and any tips
• Any thoughts on this week's earnings reports?
• Is cathie wood a terrible stock picker? Is burry right to short her.
• Not american stocks so maybe ya'll won't like it, but the near 50% profit made me smile today
• Is this really all there is to the market?
• Energy Stocks expected to open higher Monday as Ida slams the Gulf of Mexico
• My 2.5 Year (all time) Performance
• Is Alibaba a good stock to buy or is it too risky?
• $CLNE explosion
• Why are options for this stock so cheap? Am I not reading the fine print?
• 2 year reflection
• Average $CLOV investor
• Hop On the RIDE Before Icahn Shows His Cards
• Wall Street Is Looking to Reddit for Investment Advice. Wall Street professionals tell everyday investors what stocks to buy. But now they have to follow some of these amateurs for signs of where the market is headed next.
• What’s everyone’s thoughts on this stock for possible long term hold? I know upstart has had much sucess. I just needed a little advice. Thanks
• Why American Axle and Manufacturing (AXL) is significantly undervalued
• The Weekly DD - Skillz Inc (SKLZ - Full Stock Analysis): E-gaming for non-gamers
• I scanned over 150 charts this weekend. Here are some good setups I found to BTFD: HOOD, CPNG, ATVI, CHWY, HD
• How I played NFLX for this coming week
• Any companies here you think I'm wrong for investing in and why?
• Gamestop Update

Why the hell nobody gave SPRT a chat in the last week?? 100%?? Thanks...... Posted: 29 Aug 2021 04:21 PM PDT submitted by /u/Just_real_JME [link] [comments]

I’m 15 years old and have been investing since late April. Wondering if I’m doing good so far and any tips Posted: 29 Aug 2021 04:38 PM PDT submitted by /u/Immortal2017 [link] [comments]

Any thoughts on this week's earnings reports? Posted: 29 Aug 2021 09:38 AM PDT submitted by /u/Purple-Tutor5831 [link] [comments]

Is cathie wood a terrible stock picker? Is burry right to short her. Posted: 29 Aug 2021 05:36 PM PDT Been looking at ARKK top holding and tried to use basic metrics to valuate Cathie's picks. I know that she pretend that forward looking numbers should increase with time but truly, what is she really expecting from roku, zoom or even shop? For me Cathie track record shows that she has been constantly underperforming. Is Burry right to short the hell out of her? Tesla - p/e: 250x p/s: 19x teladoc - p/e: -126x p/s: 11.41 (was in the 20s in feb) Roku (lol)- p/e: 214x p/s: 21x Coin (bought close to ipo valuation, yikes)- p/e: 18.30 p/s: 13.30 Unity- p/e: -106x (lol) p/s: 32.53x Zoom (fucking lol)- p/e: 117.5x p/s: 31.22 SQ - p/e: 235x (lol) p/s: 8.9x Shop (lol) - p/e: 78x p/s: 49x What is your opinion? Is Cathie a genius or a fraud? Personally I believe she got lucky with the market reaction over tesla, she has been surfing on that hype since then, but truly time will catch up on their outrageously overvalued picks. PS: can't wait for the fanboys with no arguments to jump in. submitted by /u/cheaptissueburlap [link] [comments]

Not american stocks so maybe ya'll won't like it, but the near 50% profit made me smile today Posted: 29 Aug 2021 10:43 AM PDT submitted by /u/addictontheloose [link] [comments]

Is this really all there is to the market? Posted: 29 Aug 2021 01:46 PM PDT I'm very confused as to what the hell the current markets are supposed to be. The only thing that matters seems to be predicting what the federal reserve will do. None of this makes sense to me as a young investor. By literally every marker we are in the biggest market bubble of all time, and many experts are talking about it. Yet this is somehow just the new status quo. It's no longer about investing in how good the actual economy is doing, is it? I mean if you were sitting there in summer of 2019 before the virus started to become known, and I came to you in the future telling you there would literally be lockdowns and economic shutdown, what would you do? You would sell many of your investments, maybe even short the market. Warn people of what's to come. This is the rational decision, isn't it? Things go up, and they also go down. What the hell has happened? But actually the federal reserve decided to prop up the markets at the expense of savers and the dollar itself... so what was the point of speculating on the economy? It didn't even matter that we had a literal pandemic (or atleast the response of one), asset prices just went up and up. Which leaves me very confused. Obviously you can't just create wealth out of nothing, there is always a downside to QE and that is inflation (more specifically, loss of purchasing power). What the hell happened to the markets, how did we let it get this bad? Why would the fed not use QE to turn a crisis into a less painful downturn, instead of creating so much new money that they somehow turn a shutdown into a bull market? Am I going crazy here? We read the statements made on Friday and the Federal reserve STILL is scared to stop pumping money into the market. But nobody's doing anything about it. How did things get this bad? No bubble resolves sideways. This is no longer investing, this is gambling. submitted by /u/SS333SS [link] [comments]

Energy Stocks expected to open higher Monday as Ida slams the Gulf of Mexico Posted: 29 Aug 2021 06:16 PM PDT submitted by /u/Outrageous-Paint-609 [link] [comments]

My 2.5 Year (all time) Performance Posted: 29 Aug 2021 09:35 AM PDT submitted by /u/TacoPacoPeco [link] [comments]

Is Alibaba a good stock to buy or is it too risky? Posted: 29 Aug 2021 06:36 AM PDT Let me preface by saying that I'm new to investing (I have only been doing it for about half a year). In only a year the stock has basically halved in price and is at the lowest point it's ever been on the market. The company is also expected to increase its earning as well, I believe so I think it's quite undervalued. But is this too risky considering how the CCP is tightening its grip over Chinese companies and how Alibaba recently got hit with a multi-billion dollar fine? Will this stock get delisted? Is Tencent a better option? Thanks for any replies! submitted by /u/Alfred_Buckingham [link] [comments]

$CLNE explosion Posted: 29 Aug 2021 12:52 PM PDT $CLNE is about to have a significant short term MA cross with the 7 going over the 35, volume has been rising day to day and the price has risen over the MA 35 that acted as resistance and brought it down the previous week. Last time these two MAs crossed the price rose to $14.45. The current short term trend looks good, but there are two major catalysts this week and one this month. On the monthly horizon the infrastructure bill is going to pass by September 27th, won't be talking about this much because it has been covered a million times. Next, Advanced Clean Transportation (ACT) Expo The Largest Advanced Transportation Technology and Clean Fleet Event is next week. Lastly, Hurricane Ida. We all know that RNG makes up a large majority of $CLNE profits and that right now it is selling at a premium. The biggest reason the price failed to run the week before last was because oil price tanked, but Hurricanes drive oil prices through the rough and drag along RNG and LNG prices. Just look how oil and $CLNEs price rose last week in tandem. Hurricane Ida will also bring up oil ETFs like the XOP which just so happens to be the largest owner of $CLNE stock. So we have a expo which will flood PR and exposure, a hurricane that raises energy and oil prices and will positively affect $CLNE, an infrastructure bill, and an explosive short term trend about to break out of a tight Bollinger Band and long term MAs. All this makes it very possible for $CLNE closing above $10 on September 17th which will have 50K calls expiring within the money which makes up 4% of the entire public float volume and the average daily volume. Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk. submitted by /u/hellomellowmotto [link] [comments]

Why are options for this stock so cheap? Am I not reading the fine print? Posted: 29 Aug 2021 07:51 PM PDT submitted by /u/Stangpatrol99 [link] [comments]

2 year reflection Posted: 29 Aug 2021 02:33 AM PDT submitted by /u/Lynx-Reasonable [link] [comments]

Average $CLOV investor Posted: 29 Aug 2021 07:23 PM PDT submitted by /u/connsack [link] [comments]

Hop On the RIDE Before Icahn Shows His Cards Posted: 29 Aug 2021 07:34 AM PDT ​ New CEO Ninivaggi Has Been Icahn's Right Hand Man for 2 Decades Cross posted in Lordstown Motors Subreddit TLDR - Carl Icahn - who has a net worth of $16 Billion - is very likely to have an investment in this company that hasn't been made public. If it is made public the gains could be breathtaking. Position - 8500 shares long. 120 Call options. I am sure you have heard of Lordstown Motors Corporation. Now ask yourself why you know so much about a company who was trading at less than a $1 Billion Market Cap just a few days ago. The media, using a narrative that Nathan Anderson of Hindenberg Research assembled, made sure to tell you the company was a fraud. Well, it turns out they seem to have had an agenda to try to kill the company in the crib and much of Anderson's claims have been widely discredited. For instance, Anderson claimed that the company was 4 years away from bringing a product to market and in just weeks after that was published started their Beta program. The company plans on producing vehicles for final testing and to bring them to market early in the first quarter of 2021. Production is rumored to begin the final week of September and should be targeted as a major catalyst as many retail investors don't even realize the company has an actual product. As Doubling Dollars pointed out earlier on Seeking Alpha, the company has a number of organizations that seem to want to put roadblocks in the way. Donald Trump famously championed the company and staged a photo opp in front of the White House last fall. Mike Pence was there at the product launch last summer which gained headlines but his visit was frowned upon by detractors from Democrats and members of the LGBTQ community. So, there are some political headwinds. The United Auto Workers, National Automobile Association of America, Ford Motor Company, and Rivian backer Amazon seemed to want to give LMC a quick death after a coordinated campaign to discredit their company and their product. So what could possibly save a company with so many bigger organizations wanting to see it's quick death. One of the wealthiest people in the world who could be hiding in the shadows and very well could turn Lordstown from hero to zero on Wall Street. On Thursday, the Ohio company hired Daniel Ninivaggi as their CEO. The first thing that jumps out to anyone looking at his resume shows he has been the right hand man of Carl Icahn for years. Ninivaggi was the CEO of the Ichan Enterprises from 2000-2004 and then CEO of Ichan Automotive from 2017-2019. His most recent work for Ichan was as board member of Hertz which he stepped down from in July. The Hertz connection pops out at you as a Lordstown investor as the strategic business model of the company is to sell to fleets so the new CEO very well could be bringing some massive sales along with him from his connections. Upon the Ninivaggi hiring the stock shot up over 40% before paring some gains and settling down for a 15% gain which it held Friday. The heavy short interest kept the lid on the run but the sky's the limit to the upside. If Ichan discloses a position this could be similar to his Herbalife play which forced rival Bill Ackman, who was short the stock, to throw in the towel after losing $500 million. Like Lordstown, Herbalife was smeared in the media and under investigation by the SEC. They walked away with a minor penalty and their company is worth $6 Billion today. Icahn was of course President Trump's Financial Advisor during his time in office so there are political advantages to make the company a viable success story if Trump decides to run in 2024. There is a true bull case without Icahn's presence as well. The company has affirmed strong demand in their signature product the Endurance which they seek to produce 30,000 vehicles thru 2022 which translates to $1.7 Billion in forward revenue. The problem is they are cash poor but with Ninivaggi's connections odds are they will be able to do a capital raise without diluting shareholders and could get a loan on their former GM plant they own outright. In SEC filings, GM had valued the plant at $2 billion and left all robotics intact and invested in the PIPE of LMC and own about 5% of the company. GM want them to succeed to sell them batteries in their new Ultium plant that is across the street, sell them parts, and one can speculate that GM very well could use them as a supplier of parts in their own EVs that will be released in the coming years. The Lordstown complex the company owns is the third automobile largest auto plant in the United States. At a market cap of $1.15 billion and trading at $6.50 a share there isn't much downside risk at all with tremendous upside. Rivian, who still haven't released a product after forming their business in 2009, filed with the SEC for a $80 Billion IPO Friday to show how low the valuation actually is despite the companies both entering the market at the same time. Would you rather own 1 share of a company who has links to Jeff Bezos or 80 shares of a company that now seems linked to the legendary Carl Icahn. I know where my money is at, and I hope you hop along the RIDE as well. ​ The Endurance Starts Production In Less Than 4 Weeks submitted by /u/clevelandleader [link] [comments]

Wall Street Is Looking to Reddit for Investment Advice. Wall Street professionals tell everyday investors what stocks to buy. But now they have to follow some of these amateurs for signs of where the market is headed next. Posted: 28 Aug 2021 08:55 PM PDT submitted by /u/Guy_PCS [link] [comments]

What’s everyone’s thoughts on this stock for possible long term hold? I know upstart has had much sucess. I just needed a little advice. Thanks Posted: 29 Aug 2021 01:14 PM PDT submitted by /u/Stangpatrol99 [link] [comments]

Why American Axle and Manufacturing (AXL) is significantly undervalued Posted: 29 Aug 2021 04:41 PM PDT Some subs seem too uppity for a market cap just at 1B, so I'm coming here to talk about one of the few remaining automotive plays that almost nobody has talked about: American Axle and Manufacturing. AAM is broken down into two main product lines: metal forming and driveline components. On metal forming, AAM is the largest automotive forging enterprise in the world. Its portfolio includes axle shafts, driveshafts, suspension components, and more. (Hint: these are all items used in vehicles now, as well as future all-electric and mild hybrid vehicles). The driveline component product line is also massive, and to me the most critical piece of the business. If you don't own a vehicle with AAM driveline components in it, your next door neighbor probably does. And the person across the street. And your wife. And her boyfriend. Their product line includes numerous components like axles, disconnecting driveline technology, and the most important forward-looking piece: electric and hybrid driveline components and systems. AAM is showing that it is not just concerned about current products, but significant future endeavors as well. Although it currently supplies a significant number of axles and driveline components to GM, Ford, Stellantis, Daimler, Hyundai, Honda, and others, its reach into the electrified world has already begun with customers such as Tesla and Electrameccanica. Even with all that said, what makes AAM particularly special to me is China. It should come as no surprise that China is the world's largest automotive market. Chinese Automotive Sales It also should be no surprise that vehicle electrification in China is likely going to become a necessity much more rapidly than here in the U.S. So who did AAM seek partnership with? Inovance Automotive, a $190 billion Chinese industrial automation company that helps get AAM partnered with more Chinese automakers than ever before. This isn't some new, untested territory for AAM either, as they've already seen incredible success for supplying EDUs to vehicles like the Jaguar I-Pace. So who placed their faith in AAM? None other than one of everyone's favorite EV plays NIO, of course. And if that's not big enough for you, they also have a deal with REE to develop electric drive modules. REE, a company working on items such as robotaxis (Cathie Wood is a big fan of the idea), could be a groundbreaker for AAM with modular drive designs. REE Modular Driveline So, let's talk financials. We'll get the big one out of the way first: debt. AAM has a metric boatload of it, to the tune of $3.3 billion. Not exactly stellar with a projection of $5.3-5.5 billion in revenue this year. However, they have addressed this by paying down $360 million in debt just within the first two quarters of this year (that's 10% for those of you that can't do math), and plans to reach below a 2x debt leverage target as quickly as possible. And, it still earns 2.6x LT debt interest with EBIT, so it's not in the hole on its interest, though it lags the industry. Where it shouldn't take such a penalty is P/E ratio. Not always the best way to try to figure out the true price of a stock, but there's still points where it should flag as undervalued. Case and point, AAM trades at a P/E ratio of 5.06 when the Auto Parts industry average is 27.43. That's just stupid low, especially when industry players are companies like Workhorse (WKHS), Luminar (LAZR), and QuantumScape (QS). Just how low is it? Average analyst price target is $11.50/share, which still undercuts the industry average P/E at 20.84. The reality is, I just don't see how this is a below-average company. It's being priced at some of the old kids' levels (i.e. BorgWarner and Dana) even though its forward looking prospects in the EV and MHEV (Mild Hybrid EV) space are huge. According to CEO David Dauch in the most recent quarterly earnings report, 80% of their current quoted business has shifted to the EV/MHEV space, and that's good enough for me to see they aren't a dinosaur company after all. tl;dr I think AXL will go up, especially as the semiconductor shortage begins to work itself out in 2022 and automakers turn production lines up to full force. I hold shares at an average cost of $8.51. If I wasn't $60k in student loan debt I'd have a bunch of 1/22 $11c, but I'm too broke to bet and I have a baby on the way, so shares it is. This is my first DD I've ever done, so feel free to shit upon me. I'm just an engineer by trade. submitted by /u/guzzledglizzy [link] [comments]

The Weekly DD - Skillz Inc (SKLZ - Full Stock Analysis): E-gaming for non-gamers Posted: 29 Aug 2021 08:17 AM PDT Not a gaming company SKLZ is a mobile tournament platform. Basically, they take competitive mobile games, and create some sort of tournament experience for those games with a prize pool. They provide this service through an API (application program interface). Basically, their product goes like this: They create the software for hosting tournaments with prize pools They offer the software to mobile game companies as an easy-to-implement solution Mobile game companies implement tournaments using their software They take a cut of the total prize pool every time a tournament is hosted with their software It is extremely important to note that SKLZ's product is only this tournament software package. They do not develop any mobile games themselves and are entirely reliant on 3rd parties to choose to use their software. The mobile gaming market Mobile gaming accounts for over 50% of all video gaming revenue worldwide. In the US, one of the largest gaming markets in the world, mobile gaming revenue reached ~$11B in 2020. It's expected that the global share of mobile gaming will continue to rise even in relation to the rest of global gaming growth. https://preview.redd.it/suaylgc5cbk71.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=1dcc83ca8e34b0fb149585ffff75f591bf708c52 ​ In the US specifically, there has been an increased in global mobile gaming revenue share. Over the years, it has overtaken Japan as the largest mobile gaming market globally. https://preview.redd.it/vguadpm5cbk71.png?width=818&format=png&auto=webp&s=05185b68c3f9d505ca0e6dab6d9bff7b10e6a954 ​ Demographics The demographics of mobile gaming has been rapidly changing over the years and, especially in the US, is no longer what one would traditionally expect. For example, children and young adults aged 16-24 no longer make up the majority of mobile gamers. In fact, over a third of all mobile gamers are aged 45+. Furthermore, while 66% of men play mobile games, 70% of women play mobile games. Market research into gaming and spend indicate that older adults spend both more money and time in video games. https://preview.redd.it/1lr69006cbk71.png?width=802&format=png&auto=webp&s=758a9f28a17a3b17c0c5aa1e785ead0364e1f92c ​ Thus, the most valuable demographic for mobile gaming is actually the female aged 45+ market. ​ Popular game trends The most popular category of games is the "hyper-casual" games where users download ten times more games in that category than average. The most profitable mobile games in North America are actually puzzle games capturing 22% of the total North American mobile gaming revenue. AR (augmented reality) /Location-based games represent the smallest market in terms of North American revenue at (2.83%). https://preview.redd.it/xps7k2okcbk71.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=4341a86fa26d8d1b082356d3c2cbbe63dc889505 ​ Where SKLZ stands The bull case SKLZ is appropriately positioned to capture the correct demographic of gamers for the highest revenue. According to their 10-K, over 50% of their users are 45+ with ~10% of their users being aged 18-25. Furthermore, the majority of their users are women. Beyond that, gamers who use the SKLZ platform are spending more time on the game or other SKLZ games than on TikTok, Facebook, or YouTube. They spend over 3x the amount of time they would spend on a SKLZ game than an average mobile game! They are still on track for their India expansion which represents a massive injection of revenue possible. Furthermore, SKLZ is attempting to expand out of card games and into racing, shooting, and battle-royale type games as well. Lastly, SKLZ's current per-user revenue has increased by over 60%. They are successfully monetizing their current user-base and increasing the amount of revenues they gain from that user-base. https://preview.redd.it/sr7hod9pcbk71.png?width=1160&format=png&auto=webp&s=0feb51af31e4d8659aea1f932c32897983107b3b ​ ​ The bear case Most recently in Q2 2021, nearly three-quarters of SKLZ's revenues comes from just 3 games: Solitaire Cube, 21 Blitz, and Blackout Bingo. In general, a handful of games has contributed to the majority of SKLZ's revenues and this has remained consistent over the past 5 years! This represents a significant risk as it shows that SKLZ is not able to innovate away from its cash cows and as the mobile games grow out of popularity, SKLZ will not have any way to make up for lost revenues. SKLZ is paying record amounts of money in terms of customer acquisition through marketing. However, their monthly active users is actually dropping from 2020 to 2021. In fact, SKLZ has currently spent more in marketing than the previous year's total revenues! Yet, they are losing users. This is extremely worrisome about SKLZ's ability to continue their rapid growth. Lastly, SKLZ has currently only proven its market in a small segment of the mobile market. SKLZ, by definition of its platform, must operate in player vs. player games (one of the most unpopular categories of mobile gaming) which accounts for around 15% of the market. Furthermore, SKLZ has only proven itself in the arcade gaming market which accounts for 5% of North America's revenue market. In general, SKLZ has only proven themselves in a sliver of the mobile gaming market. ​ The financials Income statement Revenue growth in SKLZ continues to be extremely impressive, doubling every year (and on track to double again this year). https://preview.redd.it/0j05py4tcbk71.png?width=1162&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a97ba643d564ed2b2371bf104053512cf5a95c7 ​ However, we are also seeing marketing costs increase at more than the rate of revenues which is an extremely worrisome rate. Marketing has increased spend by over 100% per year and are on track to far exceed that this year. https://preview.redd.it/1ypli3stcbk71.png?width=1180&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce3f04743976418b0a2351a1336c7a6f63a6d7ad ​ This is especially worrisome as it means that SKLZ is spending more dollars in marketing than its receiving back because of the marketing. Also, because this is a multi-year trend, it doesn't look like marketing is paying off even in the long term. As a result, SKLZ is losing money at an increasing rate every year. https://preview.redd.it/zhgd89yucbk71.png?width=1176&format=png&auto=webp&s=aebc2a9a5945bfa554d521043e3ec2d8c8fb2c18 ​ ​ Balance sheet SKLZ sports a decently healthy balance sheet. It has over $700M in current assets with only $125M of current liabilities. This leaves SKLZ with $575M of additional cash or other liquid assets to operate with. While this is a lot of money, SKLZ is on track to burn over $300M in net losses in 2021 which will reduce this amount by over one half. Furthermore, the reason SKLZ has such a high current asset is because it has already sold additional stock in order to finance its operations. In 2021, SKLZ raised over $400M by offering new stock. ​ Cash flow SKLZ has awful cash flows due to it burning money through its operations. It's only positive cash flow over the past few years has been through financing, which means that SKLZ survives only by offering additional shares and using that money in its operations. https://preview.redd.it/pym0frpadbk71.png?width=1182&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f321567ecdaad2999a4d45a0311c6a6cd02615d This should be a glaring red flag for any current investor in SKLZ. ​ The Outlook SKLZ has an interesting position to capture a high value demographic within the mobile gaming market. However, they are doing so within the smallest categories that are popular within their demographic. They have the ability to expand into other categories, but as they are not a mobile game development company, they aren't able to deliberately expand into other types of games. They must depend on 3rd party developers choosing to use their platform while developing more popular categories of games for them. What is most worrisome for me is their cash losses and their inability to sustain their operations without additional financing activity. I would expect SKLZ to further dilute their stock (and drag down their stock price) in order to finance their operations next year as well. Lastly, I am uncertain about SKLZ's ability to capture other hit games beyond their current cash cows. Once more, SKLZ has little control of this as they do not build games themselves and are reliant on the market choosing them with popular games. In this way, there is a great risk that their current cash cows will get phased out due to age and the newer games will not utilize SKLZ as a platform. If that happens, SKLZ will lose 75% of its revenues. Positions: Given the recent pullback in the stock and the fundamentals I have stated. I am still hesitant to enter a position on this stock. submitted by /u/TheStonksHub [link] [comments]

I scanned over 150 charts this weekend. Here are some good setups I found to BTFD: HOOD, CPNG, ATVI, CHWY, HD Posted: 29 Aug 2021 03:44 PM PDT Absolutely killed it the last several weeks with my watchlist tickers and my plays. I've logged the individual returns of each stock as well as a weighted average return (if you entered the same position sizing for each play), and here are the results from last week's monster moves. Stocks were in the green and the weighted-average returns were 8% while over the last week the following ETFs/indices returned: SPY: +1% QQQ: + 1.85% Nasdaq: +1.5% Dow Jones: +0.35% Russell/Small Caps: +4% ​ A few of you pointed out the Peloton loss specifically, however, the entry on that was $110 and my personal entry was around $108. Peloton pumped a few days before earnings and was over $114 going into the report. The earnings miss and subsequent drop to $104 was, in reality, not that bad. If you remember my post with Peloton from two weeks ago I actually noted there could be a pretty hard support line at $100 level, which was close to the floor on the earnings drop. My plan would normally be to continue to hold a stock like this because it's still within my ranges, however, I'll highlight a few remarks from the earnings call that are of concern to me and might end up making me sell next week. ​ About the 20% price slash of their main bike: Today, we announced our latest step on the journey to broaden the accessibility of our products. We are lowering the price of our original Bike by $400 to $1,495. ​ ...the price drop with B1 was absolutely offensive ​ We will continue to prioritize subscription growth over near-term profitability as it's still very early days in the consumer migration to connected fitness in the home. ​ The Good: average connected fitness monthly churn of 0.73% in Q4 and 0.61% for fiscal year 2021. ​ As we announced on Tuesday of this week, we are thrilled to commence U.S. sales and resume U.K. and Canada sales on August 30, finally bringing this incredible product to market in the U.S. ahead of the key holiday selling season. ​ The Bad: Gross margin for the quarter was 27.1%, which came below our expectations. This was entirely due to our connected fitness product segment, which had a gross margin of 11.6%, below our 21% guidance. As I mentioned a moment ago, initial Tread and Tread+ return rates were higher than our forecast as of the third-quarter call. ​ In Q4, we generated total revenue of $937 million, representing 54% year-on-year growth. The primary drivers leading to our revenue outperformance versus guidance were higher-than-expected Bike deliveries and better-than-expected connected fitness churn. ​ This was partially offset by a higher-than-anticipated Tread and Tread+ return rate. ​ The Tread recalls also have some carryover impact on our logistics and warehousing costs, which came in higher than anticipated, rounding out the balance of the shortfall in connected fitness margin versus expectations. ​ Financials & Guidance: We ended the quarter with $1.6 billion of cash and liquid assets and have additional liquidity in the form of an untapped $285 million credit facility. As a reminder, our balance sheet benefited in fiscal '21 from approximately $900 million in net proceeds from our convertible note offering completed in February. Now on to our outlook. ​ We are now lapping those comparisons, which makes predicting our year-over-year performance more challenging than normal. ​ In Q1, we expect revenue of approximately $800 million, representing 6% year-over-year growth and an 87% two-year CAGR. ​ Although our profitability will step back in fiscal 2022 for the reasons I've outlined, we are very confident about the economic profile of our business model and expect to be adjusted EBITDA profitable again in fiscal 2023. ​ The Conclusion In my opinion, the company has seen some one-time set-backs with recalls which ended up hurting their bottom-line significantly. Consistent EBITDA profitability wash pushed back from 2022 into 2023 now. I wouldn't normally be too concerned about this, but I did notice management was comparing a lot of their growth and CAGR going back two-years, aka pre-pandemic. From the "guidance" they only expect a 6% growth YoY (!!) and yet they were comparing CAGR to two years ago. This was somewhat alarming and might make me reconsider my position, even though it is a swing trade. I do see a lot of positives about the company, without going into too many details they still: ​ Have incredibly low churn rate, less than 0.75% which is one of the best I've ever seen. They have a strong segment of recurring revenue with high gross margins coming from connected fitness subscriptions. They've expanded supply chains and still selling tons of bikes ​ Let's get onto the watchlist for this week. ​ The MEME List Robinhood Markets (HOOD) https://preview.redd.it/bxhux500ldk71.png?width=2434&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a53cc36f8f4228d36d17e26d8f810b26d9b2f2a HOOD had an incredible IPO. The stock price doubled shortly after and has somewhat stabilized over the last week. After this significant drop back to $45 level I like the potential entry point here. We can also see from the right side of the chart there is some gamma exposure to the upside if the stock can get up and above the $50 level. ​ Activision Blizzard (ATVI) https://preview.redd.it/podv9bi0ldk71.png?width=2430&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e88903acd8a32e9a63aeeffc7eed2a5684b627f This stock was over $100 earlier this year and has since dropped to the $80 level. I've entered a position and am long the stock here. Disclaimer: management has been under pressure as there are lawsuits/allegations of harassment within the company culture. I'm not sure if this well effect their bottom-line, but at this point I'm willing to buy the dip, similar to TTWO I pointed out not long ago. These two companies are the giants in the industry and with catalysts of new releases coming out in the short-term I like the risk/reward here. ​ Here's some larger trades and option flow that came through ATVI on Friday https://preview.redd.it/hj8lpsr1ldk71.png?width=2126&format=png&auto=webp&s=9fb5eeaa8436377945b956a62e1c67c96313ac80 Here's a look at the GEX and some buying pressures at different levels of ATVI's stock price. Based on the GEX (gamma exposure), any push above $86-87 will start to initiate some buying pressure by market-makers. https://preview.redd.it/gy3z2w72ldk71.png?width=1488&format=png&auto=webp&s=d9ade5ae92f5557e54af365a01703c1ddef2d721 ​ ​ Coupang (CPNG) https://preview.redd.it/k4cjgf53ldk71.png?width=2326&format=png&auto=webp&s=cefdc390ab0fbb20d9444a7dbd608cc855c0c66b Coupang is a South Korean retailer, similar to Amazon and also Walmart's grocery delivery segment. CPNG was very hyped on it's IPO, but has since been on a down-trend. I liked this company in the low $40's and now that it's $30 per share I think an entry is favorable. The most interesting thing about CPNG is they have a market cap of 50 billion, sales of 15 billion, while growing revenues between 70-90% YoY. ​ The BTFD List Chewy Inc (CHWY) https://preview.redd.it/hu1bf7s3ldk71.png?width=2432&format=png&auto=webp&s=0879038c0ceffdab11951d718606503315aa4512 Chewy is reporting earnings this week. They've been in a solid uptrend since May and are sitting at $88 per share at the bottom of the upward trend/channel and also nearing the 50 EMA. I'm looking for a bounce of these lines and a continuation of the trend. Note: Earnings are more often than not lotto plays. ​ Home Depot (HD) https://preview.redd.it/zeaqskc4ldk71.png?width=2434&format=png&auto=webp&s=f90536bc0c6ee96fbb63f42fc10d80cf96b11829 I like Home Depot and they've been a winner throughout Covid. After an incredible run in March from $240 a share to $320 the stock price has now stalled at that level for the last 4 months. It's now sitting on the the volume profile shelf and I will be looking for a positive catalyst and a push over $330 as volume thins out. submitted by /u/LegendaryHODLer [link] [comments]

How I played NFLX for this coming week Posted: 29 Aug 2021 02:21 PM PDT NFLX is currently in a bullish trend. Look at the daily chart here: ​ https://preview.redd.it/hjyg2rme6dk71.png?width=1206&format=png&auto=webp&s=5034438a7e0b21851ecbd1af46235ea8d2948f71 You can see that for the first time since January, NFLX has managed to not only break through resistance, but also close above that breach. The stock also broke above (and closed above) the interaction between the downward sloping trendline and long-standing horizontal resistance. This tells me that the stock looks to go higher as institutions will see this as a sign to start accumulating shares. However, we also have the market at all-time-highs on low volume rally's that can be reversed in the matter of hours. Still, NFLX has been know to be traditionally strong against the market when it is bullish, which is also the case here this past week. So I had the following options: Straight Stock - Go Long: This was tempting but the shares are clearly expensive and I would need a significant move to make a decent amount of money on this. Also, carrying over 500-1,000 shares of NFLX into the weekend can put a serious dent on Monday's buying power. Straight Calls - This choice wasn't as tempting, the Sept. 10th 550 calls for $14 each came at a high price tag, and those are the cheapest calls I would consider here. OTM calls on NFLX at these premiums is roughly the same as burning your money, so that was never a consideration. Call Debit Spread - A better choice, but I would need to pay less than 50% of the strike difference in a debit to consider this play. As of closing on Friday the 555/560 Call Debit Spread (CDS) would have cost me $2.60, which puts me at a disadvantage already. Put Credit Spread - Finally an option that makes sense (pun unintended and unavoidable) - the question was, should I go OTM, ATM or ITM for this spread. Also, keep in mind, I did not want to go farther out in time than one week (due to my being wary of the low volume SPY rally). Turns out, an ATM Put Credit Spread on NFLX netted me $2.70 for the 555/560 strikes, which is more than 50%. Plus, I will have time decay working on my side, which means even if NFLX were to pullback a bit, this spread may still be in profit come Monday. The ATM position also gives me a decent chance to leg out of this trade if NFLX suddenly reverses (buying back the short Puts and letting the long Puts ride). Overall, I now have a very high probability position with an exit plan as well. I wanted to share how I went about this trade to give an indication of the thought process you should use in your swings and day trades. You need to assess the market, then the stock and finally come up with the appropriate strategy. We shall soon see how this particular trade works out. Best, H.S. submitted by /u/HSeldon2020 [link] [comments]

Any companies here you think I'm wrong for investing in and why? Posted: 29 Aug 2021 07:49 PM PDT I'm posting this to see the bearish sentiment if any, with my stock picks. Sold a lot of FAANG recently because of the technicals and because they went up too much in a short period of time. I also did this to build up my cash position because the market is a little frothy. ​ ​ The cash and crypto percentages are relative to the stock portfolio. Cash: 22% BTC+LTC+ETH: 3.5% ​ ​ Ticker % of Portfolio DIS 19.31% AMD 16.63% AMZN 12.82% ALLY 11.27% AAPL 10.24% XLNX 5.98% COIN 4.96% TD.TO 3.91% ICLN 3.10% ABNB 2.36% SFT 2.28% ARKG 2.28% T.TO 2.21% HYLN 1.58% RY.TO 0.80% AC.TO 0.15% FOBI.V 0.10% ​ I want to add that I got carried away buying this much Disney because I think it won't outperform SPY anymore. submitted by /u/Randomuser1818 [link] [comments]

Gamestop Update Posted: 29 Aug 2021 07:44 PM PDT submitted by /u/Embarrassed-Past-886 [link] [comments]

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