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    Friday, July 2, 2021

    Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - July 02, 2021 Investing

    Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - July 02, 2021 Investing


    Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - July 02, 2021

    Posted: 02 Jul 2021 02:01 AM PDT

    Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

    This thread is for:

    • General questions
    • Your personal commentary on markets
    • Opinion gathering on a given stock
    • Non advice beginner questions

    Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google.

    If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions.

    Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 02 Jul 2021 02:00 AM PDT

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you? What country do you live in?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
    • Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
    • And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources.

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Citi, Goldman, Other Banks Accused of CDS Antitrust Scheme (2)

    Posted: 01 Jul 2021 04:45 PM PDT

    New Mexico's sovereign wealth fund brought a federal antitrust lawsuit claiming Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and other top financial institutions rigged the credit default swap market by manipulating a key benchmark.

    The proposed class action, docketed Thursday, also targets Barclays Plc, BNP Paribas SA, Credit Suisse Group AG, Deutsche Bank AG, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley, Natwest Group Plc, and three industry groups.

    By rigging the "final auction price" used "to value all CDS contracts market-wide at settlement," the banks have made "billions of dollars in cartel profits at the expense of non-dealer market participants," according to the complaint filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Mexico. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/antitrust/citi-bofa-goldman-other-banks-accused-of-cds-antitrust-scheme

    submitted by /u/alexmark002
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    Do people around you, your relatives ask you to play with their money?

    Posted: 01 Jul 2021 04:17 PM PDT

    The successful investors, traders here, or the ones who do it professionally, do you ignore such things when that happens, how do you say you don't want to do it? First of all I wouldn't take risk with someone else's money and besides why I would give this wisdom that is gained with blood sweat, tears and handling stress for free?

    I am not very succesful but I am especially asking the ones who are "very succesful and gained a wealth that can be seen from outside" by trading or investing professionally or personally, do you make people around you or your relatives rich too? If not, how do you reject them?

    submitted by /u/Broad-Paper
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    What are your best 1-2 line counters to the advice of "only invest in index funds?"

    Posted: 01 Jul 2021 08:04 AM PDT

    I have a lot of friends who have heard stats about how most professional traders do not outperform the market and therefore it's a fool's errand that a non-professional trader try to pick individual stocks to invest in, instead of just passively dumping things into an index fund. Obviously, there's wisdom and value in this advice, but for those who have started to pick individual companies to invest in, I'm curious to hear your simple one(ish)-liners that hit on the reasonableness and appeal of stock picking.

    Imagine addressing someone who is:

    • Scared to pick individual stocks AND/OR
    • Feels like it's gambling AND/OR
    • Has heard, "most professional stock pickers can't even outperform the stock market long term."

    No paragraphs or multi-clause arguments or rebuttals to the prompt saying "it depends". Quick and dirty one-liners only please.

    submitted by /u/mathaios620
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    Updating Favorite Book Reading List

    Posted: 01 Jul 2021 08:18 AM PDT

    The reading list on the sidebar hasn't been updated in a few years. So we are sourcing new ideas for books which have been published in the last 4 - 5 years to be considered in the categories below.

    The list of books below were collated about 4 years ago by u/MasterCookSwag

    I personally enjoy lighter reading about Wall Street stories and history so I've enjoyed books like:

    • Market Wizards (Interviews with Top Traders) - 1989 - Schwager
    • New Market Wizards (Conversations with America's Top Traders) - 1992 - Schwager
    • The Super Traders - 1992 - Rubenfeld

    If you recommend a book, it must be a book that you have read. And please provide the author and date of first publication. We'll update the list in the wiki so that it's more convenient to be found.

    Thanks.

    [edit] - I noticed that we don't have a lot of suggestions about fixed income investing or about the debt market.

    General Beginner Books:

    • Little book of common sense investing by John bogle
    • A Random walk down wall street by burton malkiel
    • The boglehead guide to investing by Larimore, Lindauer, LeBoeuf
    • Four Pillars of Investing by William Bernstein - beginner, general

    General Intermediate:

    • Intelligent Asset Allocator by William Bernstein - intermediate, asset allocation
    • A History of Interest Rates
    • The Myth of the Rational Market
    • How Markets Fail - Cassidy
    • Alchemy of finance
    • One up on wall street - peter lynch
    • Against the gods - Peter Bernstein
    • F Wall Street by Joe Ponzio

    General Advanced:

    • Hedge Fund Market Wizards
    • Manual of Ideas

    Corporate Fundamentals:

    • How to Read Financial Statements - Ittelson (Fundamental/Beginner)
    • How to Read a Financial Report - Tracey (Fundamental/beginner)

    Fundamental analysis:

    Intermediate

    • The intelligent investor by Ben Graham
    • Expectations Investing
    • What works on wall street by James O'Shaughnessey
    • Accounting for Value
    • Value Investing from Graham to Buffett and Beyond
    • Investment Banking - Rosenbaum
    • What's Behind the Numbers
    • It's Earnings that Count
    • Common stocks and uncommon profits - Philip Fisher
    • Contrarian Investment Strategies

    Advanced

    • Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation

    Quantitative strategies:

    Intermediate

    • Your Complete Guide to Factor Investing
    • Quantitative Strategies for Achieving Alpha
    • Quantitative Value
    • Quantitative Momentum
    • Derivatives Essentials - Gottesman
    submitted by /u/greytoc
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    Advice on holdings for a long-term investment plan

    Posted: 01 Jul 2021 08:55 PM PDT

    So, the portfolio I have in mind is: - SWPPX for the S&P 500 - SWTSX for Total Stock Market - DIA for the Dow - VTWO for the Russell 2000 - VTIAX for the Total Int'l Stock Market - IPO and IPOS for IPOs (because yes) - SCHH for U.S. REITs - RWO for Global Real Estate - BKAG for Total Bond Market

    I don't know the weight each fund will have on my portfolio yet, I don't know where to start.

    I'm wondering if you guys think this'll be too diversified or if any of these are unnecessary, like having the Dow and S&P in the same portfolio.

    submitted by /u/areintelligent
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    Emergency Funds with Dropping Interest Rates in Savings

    Posted: 01 Jul 2021 09:40 AM PDT

    Hello everyone!

    I've read through some previous posts on here about emergency funds but haven't found quite what I'm looking for. I have a taxable account that I use for options and speculative plays, another for long term investment in growth stocks I select, a Roth IRA I max contributions to annually, and a savings account with about 6 months worth of salary in it.

    My question is this: back when the interest rate on my savings account was 2%+ I didn't mind having so much money in it but now that rate has dropped to 0.5% and is not keeping up with inflation. What are the opinions on keeping a months salary in a savings account and putting the rest in a portfolio composed of 40% IVOL, 30% VTI, and 30% ICVT? I understand the risk of not remaining liquid in an emergency so ideally, it would be a margin account allowing my funds to clear immediately if I needed to liquidate. I could rely on lines of credit as well if I needed to wait for funds to clear and pay it off before interest starts accruing. This account would contain 3-6 months worth of living expenses and an additional 30% buffer. Unless this account were to drop in excess of 30%, my emergency fund would not take a hit. Thoughts on this or alternative portfolio compositions?

    submitted by /u/TheBioScout
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    Why don't more people do Covered Calls? What's the catch?

    Posted: 30 Jun 2021 06:17 PM PDT

    Like the title says - what am i missing with covered calls? i am just starting out with options, and think it's a no brainer to start with covered calls. But why do more seasoned investors not use covered calls more often? Every single one of my friends who trades options doesn't do covered calls. they say it's too much work for very little money; is that the only reason? if you have any insights, please share.

    submitted by /u/staticmemalloc
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    Best way to save for a wedding?

    Posted: 02 Jul 2021 02:58 AM PDT

    For reference - I'm based in the UK and need to save about £5k on a £24k salary (usually about £1k left after bills/taxes).

    I've got into investing this year as a result of the whole [REDACTED] debacle in January, and now I'm wondering what's the best way to save for my wedding?

    It's coming up in April next year so I have about 10 months saving to do, and because interest rates are abysmally low right now I'm not sure I love the idea of just sticking it in a savings account for 0.05% interest.

    However, because of the relatively short time frame I'm not sure sticking this money into stocks would be the best idea, given how overvalued the whole market is at the moment and the deep concerns that most of us have around inflation.

    So what's the best thing to do here?

    submitted by /u/_DeanRiding
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    401K for S-Corp - Accountant on Vacation

    Posted: 01 Jul 2021 02:42 PM PDT

    My accountant has recommended that I set up a 401K plan for my S-Corp (which costs $350/year in admin fees to PAi), despite the fact that I'm its only employee. My husband (who also has an S-corp), says his company doesn't have its own 401K plan, and just makes matching contributions to his solo 401K. Does anyone understand why my accountant might be asking me to do set up a company 401K? He is on vacation and won't be back to answer my questions until it's too late to make this month's payroll. Thank you!

    submitted by /u/BrooklynFilmmaker
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    Can i get some quick help regarding SEC filing?

    Posted: 02 Jul 2021 01:45 AM PDT

    I am currently researching up on Logitech and compare with Corsair.

    I was wondering, on the 10K (or 10Q), how can I:

    1. find sales from business deals compared to individual consumers? i.e. throughout school and jobs, i noticed majority of mouses and keyboards are logitech. they have to have some kind of business deal that is lucrative for them.

    2. additional introduction of products or deals.

    i am finding it difficult to find more in depth business model/sales model. both seems to simply say "category A = $$$ sales, Cateogry B = $$$$ sales" and just make it broad.

    submitted by /u/AIONisMINE
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    How to maintain ratios in a portfolio?

    Posted: 01 Jul 2021 05:27 PM PDT

    For simplicity, let's say I plan to invest $10/WK, and I want 50% my portfolio to be BizA, 25% BizB, and the remaining 25% BizC.

    It's easy the first week. Buy $5 of BizA, and $2.50 of each BizB and BizC.

    What happens after that though? Let's say BizB had a great week, and now my position values are:

    BizA: $5.00 BizB: $11.00 BizC: $5.00

    How should I allocate the next week's $10 of purchases? Should I continue buying $5/$2.50/$2.50, and not consider the current value of each position, or seek to balance the ratio of each position back to 50%\25%\25%?

    submitted by /u/neocamel
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    Using market cap for estimating share growth potential?

    Posted: 01 Jul 2021 07:42 AM PDT

    I'm in the process of evaluating a stock, and one of the things nagging me is stock valuation and its market cap.

    I understand, or believe I do, the following:

    • Market cap is the share price x outstanding shares
    • Market cap represents the perceived value of the company to the market
    • Market cap is typically higher than book value as it includes discount future growth
    • Share price is determined by supply and demand

    Given a company ABC Corp that produces a commodity, lets assume the following in 2010:

    • Share price: $10 (stock's ATH)
    • Outstanding shares: 100M
    • Market cap: $1B
    • Commodity price: $50/ea
    • ABC Corp has a single commodity resource producing 50M pieces/year

    Between 2010 and today, commodity prices have dropped to $5 and it was not viable to produce the commodity. To stay alive, ABC Corp suffered from share dilution, but now commodity prices are spiking. Assuming today:

    • Share price: $1 (stock's ATH)
    • Outstanding shares: 800M
    • Market cap: $800M
    • Commodity price: $50/ea

    I'm interested in purchasing the stock, but I also want to assess how much room the stock has to grow. Others I chat with about the company believe the stock can rise to anywhere between $6-10, but I don't understand why they think that. If the stock rose to $6, the company would have a $4.8B market cap; likewise $10 would give it an $8B market cap. I would've thought the stock only has ~$0.25/share in growth to return to the $1B market cap.

    If the resource is the exact same, and the commodity market is the same, why would the market assign a valuation to the company 4-8x over its previous ATH valuation? Would some of these factors lead to such a valuation?:

    • Might have the largest active producing resource compared to others
    • Might have the quickest timeline to return to production, capitalizing on commodity demand
    • Might have the potential to acquire more resources

    TL;DR

    Struggling to understand why others believe the share price of a stock can grow to levels that would put its valuation well above historic valuation on a fixed commodity after significant share dilution. If market cap represents what the market perceives the company to be worth, what would lead an investor to believe it is now worth multiples of its previous valuation? Or is market cap really just an arbitrary metric used for generating ratios to compare similar companies by size/market valuation?

    submitted by /u/_Gorgix_
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    Roth IRA: VOO, VIG, or VT?

    Posted: 30 Jun 2021 06:57 PM PDT

    I'm 18 and about to open my Roth. I've seen VOO, VIG, and VT be the most highly suggested for my portfolio. If anyone has any pointers or recommendations as to how I should distribute my retirement contributions, please let me know. I've considered going all-in VT, but I'm not sure yet.

    I'm a little less confident in my investing right now because I stopped following the market when covid began (due to it being a rather depressing sight lol)...so, now that I'm an adult and in control of my own money, I'm trying to reeducate myself and have these discussions with others. What to do?

    submitted by /u/briannapham
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    Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - July 01, 2021

    Posted: 01 Jul 2021 02:01 AM PDT

    Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

    This thread is for:

    • General questions
    • Your personal commentary on markets
    • Opinion gathering on a given stock
    • Non advice beginner questions

    Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google.

    If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions.

    Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
    [link] [comments]

    Asset Allocation ETFs (AOA)

    Posted: 30 Jun 2021 10:29 PM PDT

    I'm curious what the sub thinks about asset allocation ETFs, basically a fund of funds. Specifically AOA as that's the one I'm invested in. Although there are many others such as AOR, AOM etc.

    AOA is basically an all world fund. Roughly 50% US equities, 30% international equities and the remaining 20% a mix of domestic/international bonds.

    I see lots of recommendations for VTI, VOO and other index funds but very few for this kind of fund.

    I'm planning on using AOA as my primary retirement investment vehicle(have +30 years) what is the advantage/disadvantage of this fund versus general index funds this sub generally recommends?

    TLDR: Asset allocation funds vs index funds, advantages/disadvantages?

    submitted by /u/Revolutionary_Poet50
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    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 01 Jul 2021 02:00 AM PDT

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you? What country do you live in?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
    • Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
    • And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources.

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
    [link] [comments]

    Profitable vs unprofitable companies RoR

    Posted: 30 Jun 2021 06:35 PM PDT

    This research blows my mind:

    https://www.alliancebernstein.com/library/For-Growth-Stocks-Profits-Are-the-New-Normal.htm

    It shows that consistent investment in growing, profitable companies is better than just indexing the Russell 3000.

    How do you explain this to someone who just says "VTI and chill"? The evidence suggests only profitable companies is a better portfolio. Is the volatility higher? Is that why this is not on the efficient frontier?

    submitted by /u/Maletor
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    TD Ameritrade (TDA) recommending a financial advisor

    Posted: 30 Jun 2021 02:17 PM PDT

    TDA customers for years, though we've only used them for buying and selling securities unguided.

    We recently opened a rollover IRA with them that meets the minimum balance qualification to enable a separate advisor (Telos, recommended by TDA) to guide us through some things as we are around age 60 now.

    Wanted to see what the community here thinks of using them vs a different approach, perhaps with a different investment house. We also have some money with Chase, not much, but when they learned we have this account and some others they are trying to solicit our business.

    Footnote: we have always done our own investing through reading and research. I'd say we've been 80% successful (success defined as making at least S&P) with one or two severe failures, but totally our own fault.

    Also, what we are really needing is some tax strategy advice, and these guys are being pitched as being able to assist with that, but I dunno - maybe just go to a tax advisor? How does one go about choosing such a firm? Yelp reviews seems the obvious but of late I've begun to distrust those. As we recently moved we don't yet have friends in our age/financial cohort who also are local to us.

    submitted by /u/audiofankk
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    Bear Case for SoFi? What’s the other side of the story?

    Posted: 30 Jun 2021 10:03 AM PDT

    Someone please post a solid Bear case on SoFi. There is a large short position so I'm assuming there is some investment theory behind this outside of the lockup period expiring Monday. Lots of posts about SoFi and I'm a Bull but outside of the simple generic concerns of: multiples on all Fintech stocks will come down at some point, they fail to execute against their plan or they will have more competition… I don't see anyone posting a strong case against SoFi. I'd love to hear a different perspective.

    submitted by /u/Slow-Veterinarian-78
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    What do people actually think of SoFi the company and the stock?

    Posted: 30 Jun 2021 12:28 PM PDT

    Aside from the hype and meme threads, I wanted to know what the community here actually thinks of the company, the stock, and its potential. I haven't seen much discussion on that front.

    I'm bullish long term with no current position. I think the company is in a solid place with financials and while not "disruptive", I think they'll hold a nice place in the "cash management account" or banking field especially once/if they become chartered. I also think at some point, some company takes the top retail investing spot from RH. They have the name recognition that some don't.

    I'm bearish short term because the meme stuff will make the company (and stock) look like a P&D and keep some away, not to mention the increased volatility, profit taking, etc.

    I think once the "hype" dies out, the volume will tank significantly and the stock will go sub $15 for a bit, that's personally where I buy in to begin my long hold.

    Memes, trolling, spam aside, what do you think of the company and its potential stockwise?

    submitted by /u/Marino4K
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    What is driving interest rates?

    Posted: 30 Jun 2021 03:30 PM PDT

    As interest rates have spiked slightly from their lows last year, discussion about inflation has gone up with them. The Fed has begun "talking about" talking about raising rates. People have been pointing to dovish fed policies since '08 as a reason for high inflation. And claiming QE is a driving factor for the declining trend in interest rates.

    Isn't it more likely that interest rates have been declining as a result of globalization and the deflationary pressures that come with technology? The Fed can't just wave a wand and raise rates to say 5%? Unless there actually was true inflation and market pressures forced rates higher in tandem.

    So my question is how much control does the Fed really have over interest rates? And i'm sure it's been talked about before but does anyone think high inflation is really possible with technology driving down the price of everything?

    submitted by /u/night_ops1
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    Dividend Declaration Date Calendar

    Posted: 30 Jun 2021 01:14 PM PDT

    Every calendar that I've been able to get my hands on groups everything by ex-dates or payment date, but not the declaration date. You can sort by declaration dates most of the times but this isn't what I want.

    I'm wanting to find a calendar, app or website that will allow me to see which stocks declared dividends today?

    I know if I'm looking at specific stocks I can set alerts through many sites for announcements. But hoping to get this "for the market" all grouped together for me.

    submitted by /u/ctnowicki
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    Thoughts on buying XLNX before the merger with AMD is official

    Posted: 30 Jun 2021 09:13 AM PDT

    The title says it all really. I understand it as XLNX shareholders will get 1.73 shares of AMD once the merger is official (planned for end of 2021).

    I'm long on AMD and think this is a good opportunity, but curious what others think? Right now AMD valued at 90, you're getting a bargain with XLNX shares but I also understand both stock prices can go down/up to the point where its no longer beneficial.

    Thoughts?

    submitted by /u/NY-Giants26
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