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    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Technicals Tuesday - Jun 29, 2021

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Technicals Tuesday - Jun 29, 2021


    r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Technicals Tuesday - Jun 29, 2021

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 02:30 AM PDT

    This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on technical analysis (TA), but if TA is not your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against TA here and not in the current post.

    Some helpful day to day links, including news:


    Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions.

    The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as "priced in"): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price.

    TA can be useful on any timeframe, both short and long term.

    Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticks

    If you have questions, please see the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:

    Indicator - Trade Signals - Lagging Indicator - Leading Indicator - Oversold - Overbought - Divergence - Whipsaw - Resistance - Support - Breakout/Breakdown - Alerts - Trend line - Market Participants - Moving average - RSI - VWAP - MACD - ATR - Bollinger Bands - Ichimoku clouds - Methods - Trend Following - Fading - Channels - Patterns - Pivots

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Who truly believes a crash is coming this year and what are you doing about it?

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 12:42 PM PDT

    While new to the stock market, I would bet there is always someone, somewhere every year and every day talking about a crash around the corner.

    Being new I know that I know nothing, but do have stop losses set for my bigger positions on the off chance.

    If you think we can expect a crash this year - why? And what are you doing about it?

    Please no bear vs bull rhetoric - I've seen this topic touched on in other non-crash posts and it always turns into our side/their side and I'm not looking for that. Thanks!

    submitted by /u/CheeznChill
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    What are your highest conviction plays for the next 10 years???

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 02:40 PM PDT

    Ok the title says it all.

    Just a quick preface, my portfolio consists of just 5 stocks, AMD, JPM, BA, AAPL, and CRSR. I'm about 9% cash right now after liquidating my ETSY position and I'm looking for a great company with potential in the next 5-10 years but I'm having a little bit of trouble.

    Almost every stock I want to own is trading at too high of a multiple for me so now I'm turning to you.

    What are your highest conviction plays in the long term and WHY?

    submitted by /u/Miladyboi
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    The reason AMD is jumping today - HUGE NEWS!

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 07:01 AM PDT

    AMD + Xilix = a new Chip Innovation Powerhouse!

    The approval of this acquisition by AMD is transformational for the next stage of chip development.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/uk-regulator-clears-acquisition-of-xilinx-by-advanced-micro-devices-271624965300

    submitted by /u/StevenBikes4Life
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    The company Tesla booted from the S&P 500 is outperforming it

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 11:35 AM PDT

    Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-company-tesla-booted-from-the-sp-500-is-outperforming-it-over-50-202435898.html

    Tl;DR:

    Tesla entered the S&P 500 to great fanfare on Dec. 21, 2020, in a rebalance of the index. It surged well over 20% in its first month, but since then has fallen, standing now with gains of about 5%, lagging the S&P 500's (GSPC) near-16% gain in that same timeframe.

    Tesla's entry meant one company had to leave, as the S&P 500 does not become the S&P 501 when a new company joins the club. To make room, S&P had to kick out Apartment Investment and Management (AIV) from the index, but since that December 2020 rebalance, the company's stock spiked almost 60% — and though it went down still stands around 40% higher than it did when it got the boot.

    submitted by /u/MinderBinderCapital
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    When investing in stocks, what important truth do very few people agree with you on?

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 02:27 AM PDT

    This is one of Peter Thiel's favourites interview question from his book, Zero to One, and I believe it's a great exercise for investors here.

    You can add some context if you want. I'll start.

    A great company is not a great investment if you paid too much for its stock. You're just paying for its popularity contest, not the value of the business represents.

    Every time I say that certain hyped stock is overvalued and they're overpaying for growth, they automatically downvote because they don't want to hear the truth.

    And when the company keeps losing money and its reinvesting in capital, equity, and asset can't catch up easily from the hyped price, they always use Amazon to justify it. It's like every stock that loses money nowadays is Amazon.

    Would love to hear your important truth that most people disgaree with.

    submitted by /u/Laakhesis
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    Language-learning app Duolingo files to go public with revenues doubling year-over-year

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 07:27 AM PDT

    What are your thoughts on this ? Got robinhood notification about Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) now being on its "IPO Access" list.

    submitted by /u/johnreese421
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    Long term company research & analysis on SoFi (filter through the noise)

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 05:10 PM PDT

    I've seen a ton of posts about trading SOFI and short squeezes etc. but I'm investing in SoFi for the LONG TERM and here's why:

    1. SoFi actually had positive EBITDA in Q1 and is forecasting $27M in EBITDA for 2021! How many high growth, recent IPO's can say that! SoFi is forecasting $254M EBITDA in '22, $484M '23 ($1.17B in '25 but that's a bit of a wild card since it's so far in the future…). That's a 162% CAGR over 3 years and 113% CAGR over 5. They exceeded guidance in Q4'20 and in Q1'21 !!! Their forecast is also somewhat conservative since it excludes the impact of the pending bank charter acquisition which could increase these #'s. It also excludes some of the new offerings that were just announced like Auto Loans and IPO investing (underwriting).
    2. Rapid revenue and customer growth! Forecast of $980M in 2021 to $2.1B in 2023 is a 29% CAGR over 3 years (28% CAGR over 5 years). 2.28M unique customers in Q1 and targeting 3M customers by the end of 2021. They have a great track record of upselling existing customers (very low cost to upsell vs. acquire) with about 1/4 of their customers using multiple products, this should only improve as they add more product lines (like auto loans…and hopefully options soon!)
    3. Galileo technology platform actually turns a major cost center into a profit center and makes them a true Fintech vs. just an online bank like Ally etc. Galileo is expected to grow 55% CAGR from 2020-2025 with an estimated 62% margin. This gives them a great B2B model and de-risks a 100% banking model. Galileo is the Fintech engine behind 70M accounts (Q1 #'s) and customers include Robinhood, Chime, Monzo, Revolt etc. Galileo's APIs power functionalities including account set-up, funding, direct deposit, ACH transfer, IVR, early paycheck direct deposit, bill pay, transaction notifications, check balance, and point of sale authorization as well as dozens of other capabilities.
    4. Future bank charter with the pending acquisition of Golden Pacific Bancorp will help juice profitability and revenue growth and lowers their cost of capital. This is expected to grow profits from $484M in 2023 to $718M in 2023. If their estimates are correct AND the acquisition goes through that would increase the 3-year earnings CAGR from 162% up to 198%! This deal should close by the end of 2021
    5. Solid leadership: Anthony Noto, CEO has a strong background in Finance with Goldman Sachs and the NFL (CFO) AND Technology from Twitter (COO). Chris Lapointe, CFO also has a great mix of Tech (Uber) and finance from Goldman Sachs. Similar story with the rest of the executive team. Strong marketing with SoFi stadium in LA (Superbowl venue) and SoFi's investment team is frequently on CNBC (Liz Young etc.)
    6. Rising interest rates is actually POSITIVE for SoFi! Banks pay customers a relatively low interest rate on short term deposits and charge customers a higher interest rate on longer term loans. As rates rise their margins increase. With rates at record lows, a rapidly recovering economy and inflation on the horizon rates should only go higher (maybe substantially and much faster than normal). The bank charter only enhances this….
    7. I invested a little in SoFi (via IPOE) originally after it pulled back and wanted to invest more BUT before I did, I opened accounts at SoFi to verify that it's all that they say it is. So I opened a checking account, 2% cash back credit card, active investing account, automated investing account. This is the real deal: Products are SUPER competitive (2% cash back on a CC with NO annual fee!), Checking account pays 0.25% with no fees, $0 stock trades for active investing and direct access to IPOs (I participated in their 1st 4 IPOs today - 6/29) and no cost automated advisor investing. They really treat you like a "member" and customer service has been great so far. The mobile App is very user friendly with a ton of added features (credit score, education etc.).
      1. If you own SoFi stock for the long term and you're not a customer yet – you're doing yourself a disservice. You are an owner in the company and you should be profiting from your own banking! Try them – you'll love them and start consolidating all your accounts to them like I am.
    8. Post lockup period (ended Monday 6/28) we should see a lot more interest from ETFs, Mutual Funds, Institutional investors and analysts. Volume should dissipate and the stock held its ground even with 50M shares trading a day (10X normal volume). There is a ton of demand for not only high growth but also PROFITABLE companies and FinTech specifically. Based on their market cap and projections for profitability they should be added to the Russell indexes next year and possibly the S&P Indexes if they can meet the profitability criteria etc.

    Analyst Price Targets:

    Oppenheimer: Overweight $30 Price Target

    Rosenblatt = BUY $25 Price Target

    I personally don't follow Analysts too closely but it does drive institutional investor buying and helps give you a sanity check.

    Based on the multiples of other FinTechs my price target is $50 in 3 years assuming they hit their guidance.

    There are obvious risks if multiples come down or if they miss their targets and there is a very high short interest right now but so far they have delivered on all their guidance and growth.

    I've seen a ton of posts on SoFi trading with a lot of hopes and dreams of a quick hit or WSB pushing it higher and that's not why I put my money into SoFi over the past few months. I'm an investor not a gambler...but I have been buying some of the dips when it does on sale.

    Disclosure: I'm long SoFI and it's my largest holding. I continue to buy more on dips and plan to add more in general as they meet their targets and goals, release new products. I clearly have a vested interest in SoFi going higher but I wanted to share some of the research on the company vs. all the hype that's flying out there right now.

    submitted by /u/Slow-Veterinarian-78
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    According to Buffett, it is far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than an average company for cheap.

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 01:16 PM PDT

    He never really explained why, as far as I know. From the data I've seen, buying companies on the cheap is an outperforming strategy. Break this down for me. Why or why is it not better? It can't be solely due to the difference in tax rates.

    submitted by /u/sandee_eggo
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    NVDA vs AMD. Which is the better buy for the long term?

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 03:13 PM PDT

    NVDA is a beast of a stock that has seen a huge run up lately and will be split 4:1 in late July. Many anticipate a spike after the split since it could attract more investors. AMD has also been on a nice run but seems to be the better value of the two with more room to grow. Which of the two would you buy and why?

    submitted by /u/Zukhov76
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    My long as hell, silver DD

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 05:10 PM PDT

    Sorry this is a bit long winded, but I wanted to put out my entire investment case for silver, maybe just to feel better about having invested most of my life savings into it. I own silver mining stocks, ETF's, and options, but this is the case that ties them together. This is just my opinion. Do you own research, since I'm not qualified or interested in, giving investment advice.

    Supply

    First, it's important to consider that silver is not like other commodities. It sounds kind of silly, but if we were talking about wheat, oil or pork bellies, the supply and demand would have to match, in the long term and the short term. Gold and silver are mostly valued based on existing stockpiles. They have been mined for thousands of years, and for most of that time, excluding the last 150 or so years, almost everything ever mined was still in some sort of usable form. This is why these metals can act differently than almost other commodities. If the price of corn spiked higher, farmers would switch crops to farm more, and it would eventually correct the price to the cost of production and a reasonable profit margin. Gold or silver could go for a long time being too expensive or too cheap, and it wouldn't immediately correct itself, since the price is based more on the huge stack already mined, rather than just what's going to be mined in the next year. This one frame shift is really key to understanding the current state of the market.

    Silver is primarily mined as a byproduct of Copper Lead, Zinc, and Gold mines. This may seem like a random interesting fact, but it actually effects the market a whole lot. If we were talking about lithium instead of silver, and the lithium price went up 5x, every lithium mine in the world will go into overdrive, try to expand production as fast as possible, build any new mines they could, and that will eventually reverse or slow the price increase. If you have a mine that produces 90% of their revenue from lead and zinc, they aren't likely to do the same expansion if the 10% of production that's silver goes up 5x.

    I've heard some people talk about the market size of silver as being $1.5T. That's the rough value of all silver ever mined in 3000 years, and is pretty irrelevant in this context. The amount of silver in investible bar form is under 3B oz, which is less than $80B. The Comex has about 110M oz, in registered inventory, and 244M oz in eligible inventory. Eligible inventory is inventory that could be put up for sale if the owners wanted, so it might not be for sale at any given price. The LBMA has 1B oz, but around 85% is already owned by ETF's. There is lot of silver in the world, but very little for sale in an investment grade, at anywhere near current prices. For a market apparently worth $1.5T, it seems like you could buy every bar in available in the world for about $7B. That's obviously not counting the existing demand, so it might not take a huge amount of new demand to move this market significantly.

    Never forget that every oz of silver in the world is already owned by someone. When people talk about "new" supply coming on the market, that has to be someone who wasn't willing to sell at the old price but is willing to sell at the new price.

    Although there has been much more silver mined through history, silver inventories have been chipped away for decades by industrial consumption, while gold inventories have grown. Don't forget that although gold has grown, so has the human population, and especially the population those with enough wealth to own gold or silver.

    The whole mining industry has been slumping for a very long time. Discoveries of new significant deposits are not only down, but new additions to PM reserves fail to add as many oz as are produced each year. If you consider that it takes years between exploring, drilling, permitting, more drilling, and construction of a new mine, there could be a very big lag between the price going up, and any significant new supply entering the market.

    Some people say that if the price goes up any significant amount, a flood of silver will come in from old coins, silverware, jewelry, etc, and correct the problem. In 2011, when silver hit $50/oz, the amount of silver recycled, went up about 50%, from around 100M oz to 150M oz, but that increase was only a small fraction of the mine supply (over 800M oz), so the broader supply demand picture didn't really change much. There's still a huge amount of silver in coins, silverware, jewelry, etc, but if it didn't come back into the market at $50 in 2011, why would it come out of hiding now, for less? Also, although there are still lots of old silver teapots and spoons, they don't make a lot of new silverware and every year that stockpile shrinks as old spoons get melted down. Much of the silver used in the "silverware" portion of the current demand pie, is used for electroplating, and that silver is never getting recycled.

    Over the past several decades, some of the supply demand imbalance in the silver market has come from governments eroding their silver stockpiles. Many countries used to make coinage from silver, so they had to keep stockpiles, both functionally for making more coins, but also as a strategic and central bank asset. Today, the US, Canada, UK, and most other developed countries, have sold the majority of their silver reserves decades ago. The US government had 350M oz in 1970, and around 50M oz from 2006 to today.

    Silver is found in the earths crust at about a 14/1 ratio to gold. Current mine production is about 8/1, and existing stockpiles of investment grade product are not known well enough to compare, but I've heard estimates ranging from 3/1 to 1/1. The current price is 68/1. Gold hit it's all time high in 2020, but silver was half it's nominal all time high, or less than a quarter of it's inflation adjusted high.

    If you take a more broad view of value over time, gold and silver have historically been valued along the lines of their production and naturally occurring scarcity, from 10/1 to 15/1. This ratio held for thousands of years. If you look at an inflation adjusted chart of silver prices going back many hundreds of years, silver prices were usually many hundreds of dollars. From 1720-1900, the silver price never dipped below $100, and was as high as $500, in todays dollars. For most of the last 3000 years, an average skilled labourers days wage was 0.1 oz of silver.

    Lots of people are talking about a shortage of silver, and it's so much bigger of a deal than most realize. Mints are admitting they can't source material, and shortages that were once limited to small bars and coins, have spilled over into 1000 oz bars. These days, there are shortages developing in so many things, so it's seems normal, but this shortage is nothing like the others. As I said at the beginning, if most other shortages are self correcting by the functioning of the markets (planting more corn, etc), but this market is valued based on a stockpile built over 3000 years, then a shortage means we've run out of the stockpiles, and the one and only thing that can correct the supply, is higher prices. Given what we saw in 2011, with very little new silver coming back into the market at $50 (or an average though the year in the mid 30's), it's safe to conclude that the price it would take to truly balance the market, with no more stack to erode, would have to be dramatically higher than that.

    Demand

    The most important thing to understand about the demand side of the silver equation, is how it's changed over time. For thousands of years, silver was money. Before the last 150 years, pretty much all the silver ever discovered was still around, and the demand was that it became money the moment it was found. That's a pretty simple demand case. If you were a prospector in the 1700's, you could walk into a bar and spend silver or gold you found that day. If you spun some wool, you'd have to trade that for silver or gold before you could spend it.

    Then, over time, more and more uses for silver started to appear. This is when silver gained its hybrid, monetary and industrial status, and this status is really key to understanding silver in the world today.

    Today, around 60% of silver demand comes from industry, and that demand is quite inelastic. If a company makes smartphones, and the average phone uses $0.35 worth of silver, you don't stop making phones when the price of silver quadruples, and your phone needs $1.40 worth of silver. Silver is used very broadly, since it's found in alloys used in most electronics. Because of that broad industrial usage, and the difficulty recovering such small quantities, about 2/3 of the silver consumed is never recovered. If you have a gold watch, someday that watch will break, and the gold will probably end up in a gold bar. If you make a cell phone, one day it will break, and most will end up in a landfill. Even some of the silver that goes through a recycling process still ends up being melted into an alloy so it still isn't recovered as silver.

    Also, industry demand is almost always hard to substitute. Silver is the most conductive element, most reflective element, and has natural anti microbial properties. These properties are elemental and irreplaceable. I'm sure if people could easily use copper instead, they probably already would have. There is a natural trend where a single product, like a solar panel, will use less silver per unit, as manufacturing becomes more and more efficient, but that effect is counteracted by more and more products using silver and higher quantities of production driving that efficiency.

    Silver's industrial demand is highest in fast growing sectors like electric vehicles, solar panels, and electronics. EV's use significantly more silver that gas cars, and also use lots in their charging infrastructure. The average solar panel uses 0.6 oz of silver, and 5G networks are expected to increase silver demand significantly as they roll out. The trend is clear, the future needs silver, and things that haven't been invented yet, will probably need the irreplaceable properties only silver can offer.

    The other side of silver demand is its monetary or investment demand. At the core of this demand is silver's historical role as a store of value, as well as the investment case I've been spelling out in this and my last post. Silver's monetary history revolves around it having the key properties of money: durability, portability, divisibility, fungibility, uniformity, limited supply, and acceptability. It's worth noting that every element on the periodic table that meets these characteristics is already considered money. If you eliminate all gasses, all the elements that are reactive and non durable, all the elements that are too abundant to be portable (lead, iron, etc), the elements that aren't easily divisible and fungible, so they can't be divided and reformed, at the end of all that, you are left with only the precious metals. Maybe you can make the case for copper and nickel, but guess what those have been used for.

    So, we've established that silver is a store of value based on inherent qualities. That makes it a safe haven investment, since people look to stores of value when the future becomes uncertain. For decades now, the world has been lulled into a false sense of security by the US dollar global standard, coinciding with a period of particularly low inflation. A key driver of that period of low inflation, is deflation in prices of consumer goods, because of globalization. Basically, we keep printing more and more money, but China keeps cheaply producing more and more products. This has kept inflation contained in localized asset bubbles (stocks, real estate, art), and most people haven't seen it effect their lives much (until recently). That could change quickly. The low prices we've grown accustomed to, probably won't keep dropping as we keep printing more money. In short, once China already produces everything, there's no prices left to bring down to offset the printer.

    For years, pretty much every country in the world has been printing money like crazy, and the only thing that makes it not look crazy, is the fact that everyone else is doing it, and currencies are only valued relative to other currencies. People call this the race to debase. Inflation has gone from a non issue in the minds of the world, to the issue of the day, and that's unlikely to change any time soon.

    Much of the developed world has forgotten about gold and silver, with academics referring to it as a barbarous relic, and with the biggest pools of money, hedge funds, pension funds, endowment funds, collectively owning less than 1% of their portfolios in gold, and presumably a fraction of that amount in silver. For individuals, the percentages are probably a bit higher than for funds, but as a share of all wealth in the west, precious metals are a rounding error, even today and even with all the attention we give to the space. It's just not on most people's radar yet.

    Basically, we have a good case that demand should be higher, but it's actually pretty low in the grand scheme of things, with most individuals owning none and even the biggest funds not bothering to hold any. Despite this, let's consider how the market is holding up to this (actually very low) demand.

    I can remember a couple times when interest among retail investors spiked up, and premiums on coins and small bars went up dramatically. Every time this happened before 2020, the market would stabilize in months and premiums would fall back down. Producers of small bars and coins got a bigger incentive to make more, so they did, and the market calmed. In 2011, my local dealer would sell me high premium coins, but he could also get me 1000 oz bars at $0.60 over spot.

    When covid hit, premiums rose again, but this time they stayed high. The reason is that this time the shortage is across the entire market. My local dealer passes on the prices he pays with a small markup, and his prices have stayed high on coins and bars, but also now his premiums on 1000 oz bars are up to $2.50. Shortages have reached every corner of the market, and there could soon be a time when it simply becomes unavailable.

    Scarcity is an incredible driver of behaviour. There are a lot of companies who really rely on silver, and who currently use just in time inventory, so they can't keep their operations going for long without new inventory. If I recall the toilet paper aisle in March 2020, when people start to sense a shortage, they tend to stock up. Unlike toilet paper, this won't just be driven by fear and need. This would be driven by fear, need, want and greed. Imagine if toilet paper were a target of huge speculators that could easily and cheaply, house many years of global production, and suppliers couldn't easily ramp up production, to respond to the shortage. It probably would have left a whole lot more desperate people, willing to pay a whole lot more.

    Silver is a market that probably deserves more demand than it's getting, but in reality has so little demand that the biggest funds and investors barely notice that it exists. Even this tiny demand has been enough to clean out existing stockpiles and create a shortage. The sleeping dragon in this situation is that industrial users need to buy, regardless of price or market conditions. Prices will rise, shortages will grow, and then industrial users will have to compete with a larger and larger group of investors for scarce supply.

    Summary

    This is a small market, with growing and inelastic demand, and an existing supply demand imbalance, that has been eroding available inventories for years. It's currently in short supply (in an investable, deliverable form), and that shortage is getting worse by the day. The silver market is historically prone to wild spikes, and this time, a large spike up in price would actually be reverting to a more normal historical price (over the very long term), in terms of the ratio with gold, and in absolute inflation adjusted price. The physical price diverging from the paper price may force the Comex and LBMA to make more deliveries than they are basically built for, dry up any available inventory, and may cause a large number of paper contracts to owe physical metal they have no way of obtaining at anywhere near current prices.

    Industrial users are the sleeping dragon in this situation, needing hundreds of millions of oz per year to operate their businesses, and historically relying on just in time inventory. Now they are being forced to wait to get inventory, and may start to see a shortage ahead. Some may decide that the risk of not getting product or having to pay much higher prices is too great, so they need to take some of the dwindling inventory for themselves. The more scarce it becomes, the more industry will want to stock up. Speculators will get wind of this, and further compete for the last scraps of bullion.

    This situation looks to me like a big bonfire, soaking in the gasoline of paper leverage, that may ignite anytime. I'll be sitting by with my marshmallows, waiting to sell into a market that might look much different than when I bought.

    submitted by /u/Jacked-to-the-wits
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    Does anybody know why the FED refuses to raise interest rates even .25%?

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 04:31 PM PDT

    I think its rather obvious to see that raising interest rates just .25% would ease up these so call "shortages" which are really what they say when a commodity has a huge spike in prices. We have "shortages" everwhere from wood to used cars to real estate.

    My question is, is it really that difficult to bump interest rates up .25% just to help ease the amount of inflation that is happening around the USA?

    I noticed that other countries are also raising rates already and even India & china have higher interest rates than the USA right now. Why do they insist waiting until 2023-2024?

    One of the first things u studied if you took economics was that 0% interest rates (making money free and printing alot of it) leads to hyperinflation. We are supposed to be able to put our money in the bank and collect at least 2% in interest rates. Why is money so cheap still? None of this is adding up. So I was hoping somebody could explain why interest rates are going to stay at ~ 0% for more years. I am so scared to invest in the stock market now seeing as to how pumped up it is with fake money. Its so obvious that it only goes higher because of 0% interest rates.

    submitted by /u/NervusTrader
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    Rolls Royce (RYCEY)

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 07:29 AM PDT

    I have 1000 shares. Plan is to hold long term while the airline industry bounces back, I'm in no rush. What are your thoughts though? Should I sell and free up that 1400 dollars to invest elsewhere (taking about a 500 dollar loss) or just sit tight and hold for long? What would you do?

    submitted by /u/Kbum1003
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    $POWW blew away analyst earnings est. by about 500%

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 04:02 PM PDT

    $POWW blew away analyst earnings est. by about 500%

    I have an open long position in $POWW!

    https://ammoinc.com/2021/06/29/ammo-inc-reports-financial-results-for-its-fiscal-fourth-quarter-and-full-fiscal-year/

    AMMO, Inc. Reports Financial Results for its Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Full Fiscal Year

    – Annual Adjusted EBITDA of $8.1 million and Adjusted EPS of $0.07 per share –

    SCOTTSDALE, Ariz., June 29, 2021 — AMMO, Inc. (Nasdaq: POWW, POWWP) ("AMMO" or the "Company"), a premier American ammunition and munition components manufacturer and technology leader, is pleased to announce it has reported financial results for its fiscal fourth quarter and year ending March 31, 2021.

    Financial Summary for Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2021 vs. Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2020

    • Sales for the quarter were $24.2 million – an increase of 409**%**
    • Gross Profit Margins increased to approximately 23% – an increase of 179%
    • Operating expenses as a percentage of sales decreased 58**%**
    • Adjusted EBITDA increased to $4.8 million — an increase of 296%
    • Adjusted EPS increased to $0.04 – an increase of 167%

    Financial Summary for Fiscal 2021 vs. Fiscal 2020

    • Sales for the year increased to $62.5 million – an increase of 300%
    • Gross Profit Margins increased to approximately 18% — an increase of 173%
    • Operating expenses as a percentage of sales decreased 61**%**
    • Annual adjusted EBITDA increased to $8.1 million – an increase of 213%
    • Adjusted EPS Increased to $0.07 — an increase of 150%

    AMMO is positioned for exceptional growth in Fiscal 2022 after establishing a new standard for the Company. Demand fundamentals in the US domestic ammunition market are exceedingly strong and we are seeing no indication of slowing. The Company broke ground on its new state-of-the-art plant, scheduled to be fully operational in approximately one year. And we have established the Company as a cutting-edge design firm, announcing a contract for the design and manufacture of technologically advanced ballistic match ammunition for the US Department of Defense. Our fiscal fourth quarter delivered the best quarterly performance in Company history, with even better quarters reasonably expected to follow throughout Fiscal 2022.

    Additionally, the Company experienced sales growth of 46**%** quarter-over-quarter, a $7.6 million increase.

    The Company's margins have also increased to approximately 23% for our fourth fiscal quarter, an increase of 179% or $7.1 million year-over-year. When depreciation and amortization are added back to the cost of goods sold, our gross profit margin increases to 27% for the quarter.

    Our operating expenses as a percentage of sales was 25**%, representing a 58%** decrease from the prior year quarter. For the year, our operating expense as a percentage of sales was 27%, a 61% decrease from the prior year.

    Net Loss for the quarter was approximately $463,000, which includes approximately $3.4 million of non-cash expenses. Net Loss for the year was approximately $7.8 million, which also included $10.1 million in non-cash expenses.

    Adjusted EBITDA has grown to $4.8 million for the quarter – 296% increase from the prior year. For the year, our Adjusted EBITDA was $8.1 million – 213% increase from the prior year.

    The continuing improvement in adjusted EBITDA and margin shows the impact of the scaling we are beginning to see in our operational costs. We expect our first half fiscal 2022 EBITDA to be better than the second half of fiscal 2021 as a standalone.

    AMMO's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) increased to $0.04 for our fiscal fourth quarter, representing a 167% year-over-year increase. Our adjusted EPS increased to $0.07 for the year, representing a 150% increase from the prior year. Adjusted EPS is a metric the Company values as we believe it is a better representation of the Company's true operating performance.

    The revenue guidance for the 1st quarter of our 2022 Fiscal Year is $41M and will include two months of operations from our newly acquired Gunbroker.com assets. As previously announced, we expect to achieve profitability in this quarter.

    submitted by /u/Fight-the-shorts
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    OPINION: How much money would YOU need to retire?

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 01:16 PM PDT

    Here's what I am thinking: If I can get to $500k in my stock portfolio (not there yet) and I could get a return of 20% a year. I think I could retire and just day trade... What do you think? Possible? or too risky?

    submitted by /u/REMO_Williams1985
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    Opinions on Old Dominion Freight Line stock for the long term?

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 05:40 PM PDT

    I have been a holder of ODFL for the distant past (2+ years). Of all of my stock picks, Old Dominion Freight Line has made me more money. The past approx. 4-8 weeks have been rough, the stock was trading sideways, then has begun to trade down. Not to sound like a beginner to investing/stocks, but this stock seems undervalued by 10-15% at the moment. Nothing in ODFL history appears bad, and I wanted opinions on if other people also feel like this stock is undervalued?

    submitted by /u/Dynasty__93
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    Is 15% allocation in one stock too much?

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 08:39 AM PDT

    TDOC is my biggest holding (around 15% of my portfolio) and it has been one hell of a ride the past few months. I was almost down -16K on it in May when it hit a 12M low of 129. And now I have just turned positive (my avg price is 170, I DCAed all the way down from 240 or so, and the reason why it ended up being my biggest holding).

    Now I am not sure whether the right decision is to keep holding or trim my position a bit? Any recommendations?

    submitted by /u/futureIsYes
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    Disney down, time to rally back?

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 01:13 PM PDT

    Stock was up last week and it just got bashed to the ground this week with two red days. Not even the news of partnering with Amazon made any difference. It created a new low for the week and seems like it's heavily shorted (not retail selling). Short interest is at 23 million with an average volume of 8.5 million. Seems like a good setup for a run starting now. Personally, didn't see any news that is alarming for the stock to drop a few percent over the last two days. Cruise line may be delayed, but that's less than 4% of their profits, so not a big deal compared to selling out all their theme park tickets, getting bigger view ship for Disney+. Anyone have a good guess as to why this is down and whether it'll bounce back this week? I don't believe it has anything to do with the Delta variant, but anyone will say it does just to make the bearish story make sense.

    submitted by /u/lilaznjocky
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    Preparation for trading day - June 29, 2021

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 05:59 AM PDT

    Preparation for trading day - June 29, 2021

    Note that this only includes stocks with larger market cap and stocks considered popular.

    Notable Price Upgrades and Downgrades

    Accenture (ACN):

    • Argus Research Maintains Buy Rating (Price Target Changes From $300 To $330)

    Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA):

    • Oppenheimer Maintains Perform Rating (Price Target Changes From $73 To $125)
    • Raymond James Maintains Outperform Rating (Price Target Changes From $106 To $168)

    DoorDash (DASH):

    • Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight Rating (Price Target Changes From $170 To $215)

    Atlassian Corporation (TEAM):

    • Baird Maintains Outperform Rating (Price Target Changes From $270 To $290)

    Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN):

    • HC Wainwright & Co. Initiates Buy Rating (Price Target $703)

    General Motors (GM):

    • UBS Maintains Buy Rating (Price Target Changes From $75 To $79)

    Tesla (TSLA):

    • UBS Maintains Neutral Rating (Price Target Changes From $730 To $660)

    Fox (FOXA):

    • Guggenheim Downgrades To Neutral From Buy (Price Target $41)

    Carvana (CVNA):

    • Piper Sandler Downgrades To Neutral From Overweight (Price Target Changes From $303 To $306)

    Today's Economic Calendar

    • 09:00 am S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. home price index (year-over-year) for April
    • 09:30 am Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin interviewed
    • 10:00 am Consumer confidence index for June

    IPO market (This week)

    • Acumen Pharmaceuticals (ABOS) Price range: $14.00 - $16.00
    • Aerovate Therapeutics (AVTE) Price range: $13.00 - $15.00
    • AMTD Digital (HKD) Price range: $6.80 - $8.20
    • Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT) Price range: $13.50 - $15.50
    • Clear Secure (YOU) Price range: $27.00 - $30.00
    • CVRx (CVRX) Price range: $15.00 - $17.00
    • D-MARKET Electronic Services & Trading (HEPS) Price range: $11.00 - $13.00
    • DiDi Global (DIDI) Price range: $13.00 - $14.00
    • Dingdong (DDL) Price range: $23.50 - $25.50
    • EverCommerce (EVCM) Price range: $16.00 - $18.00
    • Intapp (INTA) Price range: $25.00 - $28.00
    • Integral Ad Science Holding (IAS) Price range: $15.00 - $17.00
    • Krispy Kreme (DNUT) Price range: $21.00 - $24.00
    • LegalZoom.com (LZ) Price range: $24.00 - $27.00
    • Nyxoah (NYXH) Price range: $31.46
    • Regencell Bioscience Holdings (RGC) Price range: $8.50 - $10.50
    • SentinelOne (S) Price range: $31.00 - $32.00
    • The Glimpse Group (VRAR) Price range: $6.00 - $8.00
    • Torrid Holdings (CURV) Price range: $18.00 - $21.00
    • Twin Vee PowerCats (VEEE) Price range: $5.00 - $6.00
    • Xometry (XMTR) Price range: $38.00 - $42.00

    That's all folks, have fun and stay green

    Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and nothing in this post shall be seen as a financial advise. Always make to sure to vet the accuracy of statements and do your own research before using it in any way

    submitted by /u/greenfish00
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    What stocks to add today?

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 06:39 AM PDT

    I have some money ready to invest and have been researching/looking around but haven't pulled the trigger yet on what to invest in. What stocks have a good entry point right now? I plan on holding long term.

    These are the things that I am considering with my buying power:

    Invest in new company (always interested in learning about new companies)

    Average down on rocket pharmaceuticals (6.5% of my portfolio)

    Average down on plug power (been very disappointed with this stock, way down from my entry point. 2.5% of my portfolio)

    Buy more AppHarvest (appears to be promising company, and currently I just have a very small holding 1.7% of my portfolio)

    Buy more apple (7.3% of my portfolio)

    Buy more Microsoft (3.5% of my portfolio)

    Buy more visa (8% of my portfolio)

    submitted by /u/Kbum1003
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    Cyber Security ETFs?

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 09:31 AM PDT

    Going to do some research this week on cyber security index funds. Any recommendations? It's not a sexy sector like renewable energy or marijuana, but I could see growth that'll help it beat the S&P 500 over the next 10 years. Thanks!

    submitted by /u/VeryTiredDad
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    Do finance professionals use CPI as a measure of inflation?

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 01:41 PM PDT

    So I've recently learned just how much the CPI is a terrible measure of inflation and I know how important inflation is in pretty much any valuation or model. This got me wondering how widely used it is? I cant imagine sophisticated agents using it as is, but I know that the company I work for (not a financial institution) does use it for its long term models. Do banks use it as is? Do most companies? How about other economic measures like GDP and unemployment?

    submitted by /u/alsonotjohnmalkovich
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    There is a fuel shortage in the US because there is a lack of fuel drivers to deliver it. What investments to keep an eye out for?

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 02:23 PM PDT

    As my title said, There is a fuel shortage in the US because there is a lack of fuel drivers to deliver it. What investments to keep an eye out for?

    I'm just curious if something is going to spike or pop because of this.

    submitted by /u/majorchamp
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    Websites show different P/E ratios ?

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 02:21 PM PDT

    When trying to check the average P/E ratios for each sector, different websites throw me different numbers with a difference of +/- 20 points.

    Is there no concrete valuation data for industry sectors ? is it all speculative ?

    submitted by /u/swaliepapa
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    Himax Technologies, an extension on a previously shared DD. Trying To Find The "When" in entry

    Posted: 29 Jun 2021 02:10 PM PDT

    Credit To; u/SniXSnipe for the fundamental DD coverage. Which can be found here.

    Riding off what the gentleman shared above, I would like to share my opinion on the when to buy in.

    The stock, as seen in the daily chart over here has been ranging for a while. Mostly I would say because of profit taking and seemingly reaccumulation of positions.

    This means, whoever has been reaccumulating here has a strong position to send the stock to another rally. This is also seen by how it seems ready to move as it retests last point of support (see lps on the chart) would be the last test it needed before taking off.

    Full Disclosure; I have a few shares in the company already and now waiting for my the market to react.

    Other Similar Examples;

    A recent example of such a range and break out can be found on the $NVDA) post I shared. Entry was also on breakout but I've also recently got into $ATOS with a few shares at retest of the break out and $INTC based on the price action analysis of the trading range.

    Others are $AAPL and $AMZN that seem ready to break.

    TL;DR - $HIMX about to breakout and a possible rally may ensue.

    (This isn't financial advice. Do your own due diligence. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results)

    submitted by /u/SupplyAndDemandGuy
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