Stock Market - How to Squeeze Citadel (RECAP) |
- How to Squeeze Citadel (RECAP)
- 115 million call option shares finishing over 40$ on Friday.
- Clean Air Smart Tech Company
- WKHS target 250������������
- Kontrol BioCloud to provide real-time viral detection technology for the Canadian Olympic Committee at Tokyo 2020
- Here comes Thursday again with red dildo..
- $UWMC A few seller walls need to be broken, Working on it
- Testing the waters here..
- Fisker treating me right.
- Todays gains.. love this market environment ����������
- Meme stock rally broadens: Geo Group, Clean Energy Fuels shares soar
- Atos YOLO, 15000 shares, ATOS. I bought the dip of ATOS today, little bit early at 4.75. This is my first time to join ATOS club.
- My Watchlist For 6/10 -- Some Easy To Read plays
- KemPharm ($KMPH) - THE SLEEPING GIANT
- Market Map 6/9
- Exxon Mobil Corporation
- Market Status: 6/9/2021
- $BCTX, a shorted cancer stock (MEGA DD)
- Rule #20: Don't try to be the hero! We designed a 72 rules for investing ebook a few years ago, I thought I should turn it into a Stock Investing Cheat Sheet: Here's my 25 rules cheat sheet to pick more winners!
- Need some help for #CLOV! Help!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Still Holding! Where you Apes at? Ape Strong!!!
- A few Potential Plays for the Next Few Days - IWM, VMW, PENN - Options Flow and Technical Analysis
- $POWW up big today. Russell 2000 inclusion at end of month. Get in while you can! ����
| How to Squeeze Citadel (RECAP) Posted: 09 Jun 2021 02:08 PM PDT Bad stocks if your goal is to Squeeze CitadelCitadel Advisors Llc ownership in CLOV
They will make money if you buy/own this stock. Citadel Advisors Llc ownership in TSLA
They will make money if you buy/own this stock. Citadel Advisors Llc ownership in KALA
They will make money if you buy/own this stock. Decent stocks if your goal is to Squeeze CitadelCitadel Advisors Llc ownership in WISH
That's a difference of $1,228,000. Assuming they lose every put, they can cover the losses with the shares they have. Good stocks if your goal is to Squeeze CitadelCitadel Advisors Llc ownership in AMC
That's a difference of $15,991,000. Assuming they lose every put, they can cover the losses with the shares they have. Citadel Advisors Llc ownership in BB
That's a difference of $11,972,000. Assuming they lose every put, they can cover the losses with the shares they have. Great Stocks if your goal is to Squeeze CitadelCitadel Advisors Llc ownership in GME
That's a difference of $188,567,000. Assuming they lose every put, they can NOT cover the losses with the shares they have. Citadel Advisors Llc ownership in AMD
That's a difference of $535,394,000. Assuming they lose every put, they can NOT cover the losses with the shares they have. Citadel Advisors Llc ownership in U
That's a difference of $97,983,000. Assuming they lose every put, they can NOT cover the losses with the shares they have. If my goal was to Squeeze Citadel**, I would HODL $U, $AMD, and $GME. Not financial advice. If there is more interest in this post I can continue the research.** [link] [comments]  | ||
| 115 million call option shares finishing over 40$ on Friday. Posted: 09 Jun 2021 06:53 PM PDT
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| Posted: 09 Jun 2021 06:17 PM PDT I don't think you've ever seen a company with so much upside on the OTC before. Ticker FOMC has already acquired multiple companies and is about to acquire a 50 million dollar company (Smartguard Energy) at the end of the month. What's it's market cap after it acquires all the companies including the 50 million? Well right now it's 53 million. How is that possible? Well because it's obviously not priced in yet. Now you're thinking, well this is too obvious isn't it? Don't overthink it. It's because they used to be a zero bid stock before the new CEO Vikram Grover took over 2 years ago. There isn't much confidence yet and it's a volatile investment. I'd recommend anyone reading this to do some digging because there's some gold here. This is anybody's chance to get it way lower than the current investor since the OTC crash. If I told you an investment could change your life would you not look into it? FOMO Corporation (FOMC) [link] [comments]  | ||
| Posted: 09 Jun 2021 06:04 AM PDT
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| Posted: 09 Jun 2021 11:03 AM PDT Yesterday Kontrol Technologies announced that Kontrol BioCloud covid-detection units will accompany the Canadian Olympic Committee to Tokyo to help keep them SAFE... What other countries' teams may have the benefit of this technology remains to be seen with Canada leading the way! "These safe space technology units will be used at the Olympic Games within Team Canada's residential areas including the Athletes' Village. "Protecting the health and safety of Team Canada, which has always been a top priority, needs innovative solutions in our current global context," says Dr. Mike Wilkinson, Team Canada's Chief Medical Officer. "The addition of Kontrol BioCloud really complements the stringent protocols put in place by the COC, International Olympic Committee and Tokyo 2020 Organizing Committee to protect the health and safety of our team. This technology provides another layer of protection with air quality monitoring so that our athletes can focus on their pursuit of the podium." [link] [comments]  | ||
| Here comes Thursday again with red dildo.. Posted: 09 Jun 2021 02:48 PM PDT
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| $UWMC A few seller walls need to be broken, Working on it Posted: 09 Jun 2021 11:19 AM PDT
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| Posted: 09 Jun 2021 07:46 PM PDT
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| Posted: 09 Jun 2021 04:43 PM PDT
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| Todays gains.. love this market environment ���������� Posted: 09 Jun 2021 02:02 PM PDT
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| Meme stock rally broadens: Geo Group, Clean Energy Fuels shares soar Posted: 09 Jun 2021 09:44 AM PDT Emily McCormick·Reporter Wed, June 9, 2021, 12:18 PM Online traders have found new targets during this week's "meme stock" resurgence. Geo Group (GEO), a company that owns and manages private prisons, saw shares soar by as much as 73% intraday on Wednesday for the stock's biggest one-day gain on record. Shares pared some advances after reaching as high as $11.00 apiece and were trading around $9 as of 11:55 a.m. in New York. Natural gas service provider Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE), likewise, rose as much as 46% on Wednesday before trading about 19% higher just before noon eastern. Traders on platforms including Reddit have recently been seeking new stocks to push higher, broadening their scope beyond consumer-facing firms like GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment (AMC). Many of these investors, communicating on forums like Reddit's r/WallStreetBets, have piled en masse into stocks popular with short-sellers in an effort to catalyze a short squeeze, with those betting against gains in the stocks hurrying to cover their positions and pushing the share prices still-higher. Some of the latest comments on new posts in r/WallStreetBets were filled with messages like "CLNE to 15" and "So Fresh, So CLNE" as users touted potential new candidates for a rally late Tuesday into Wednesday. The stock hit an intraday high of $14.50. Geo Group's stock also shared a similar profile to the original Reddit-fueled darlings. Geo Group's short interest comprises about 37% of its float, according to S3 data cited by Bloomberg on Wednesday. And the company also endured events earlier this year that sent the stock lower and made it more attractive to short sellers, after President Joe Biden signed an order to limit the government's use of private criminal detention facilities in a move that would impact Geo Group's federal partnerships. Meanwhile, some of the other stocks that had been the subject of considerable online trader interest earlier this week already fell out of favor with some traders. Wendy's, the first fast food chain to become a notable meme stock this week, saw shares slide 11% intraday on Wednesday after jumping 26% a day earlier. The move lower also coincided with two downgrades from Wall Street firms Stifel and Northcoast, with analysts at both firms noting that the stock's valuation seemed difficult to justify after the rally. Shares of ContextLogic (WISH), the parent company of e-commerce site Wish, also gave back some gains after soaring 50% on Tuesday. Shares of health insurance company Clover Health (CLOV) also fell 15% after an 86% jump a day earlier. — Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @emily_mcck [link] [comments]  | ||
| Posted: 09 Jun 2021 06:23 PM PDT
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| My Watchlist For 6/10 -- Some Easy To Read plays Posted: 09 Jun 2021 07:27 PM PDT | ||
| KemPharm ($KMPH) - THE SLEEPING GIANT Posted: 09 Jun 2021 12:06 PM PDT All DD credit goes to u/BankruptcySpeedrun DISCLAIMER: u/BankruptcySpeedrun owns 515,000 shares of KMPH @ ~$9.50. Yes, that is ~$5 million. You can check his profile for proof and he says with full confidence that he intends to hold this position indefinitely. He only asks that you read this report in its entirety before drawing your conclusions because nothing about this company is as it seems. --------------------------------------------------- PART I - DILUTION, DEBT, DOUBT --------------------------------------------------- On its surface, KemPharm looks particularly depressing. A casual glance at the KMPH chart will show you their stock price seems to know only one direction. Down. A deeper dive into their financial history doesn't improve their outlook either. Dilution, debt, and doubt. The triple-Ds of woe that spell out doom for any company that dares to enter the biotech arena. Their earnings are dismal and their quarterly reports are depressing. Dreary forecasts and dreadful prospects detail a dismal decline of depleted reserves and desperate delusion. In a word… dangerous. So why would anyone invest in this company? Better yet, why would anyone spend a single moment of their valuable time researching this company when everything they need to know is right out there in the open? Had I looked at this company a few months ago I might have come to that exact conclusion... But on March 3, 2021… everything changed. Azstarys is KemPharm's latest FDA-approved medication specifically formulated for the treatment of ADHD. A once daily pill of serdexmethylphenidate and dexmethylphenidate. This is undoubtably decent news but, despite the medication showing promising potential, this alone wasn't enough to convince me to make my investment. The first glimmer of potential that caught my eye appeared, like most things about this company, in the smallest of details. If you have ADHD as I do, you may have noticed that you've never heard of SERdexmethylphenidate. Dexmethylphenidate, the more active isomer of methylphenidate, is in Focalin and Focalin XR but the SER is a new development. Looking deeper into Azstarys, I noted that SERdexmethylphenidate was described as a prodrug. And the only other ADHD med with that designation is Vyvanse. I was familiar with Vyvanse because it was my prescription prior to Focalin XR. But I wasn't familiar of why it was called a prodrug so I decided to dig a little deeper. …and deeper… …and deeper… …and deeper… ...until I found a thread... A thread that led me all the way back to the year 2006. A year where a man by the name of Dr. Travis Mickle made a rather important discovery.
Source: https://kempharm.com/team/ In 2006, after tendering his resignation to New River Pharmaceuticals, the MickleMeister founded KemPharm with the sole intention of producing a plethora of prodrugs. Shortly after his departure, New River Pharmaceuticals was purchased by Shire for the bargain price of $2.6 billion. I say bargain because Vyvanse now generates around $2 billion dollars in revenue every single year. Subsequently, Shire was purchased by Takeda in 2019 for the slightly higher price of $62 billion but this information will come into play a little later. So this begs the question; how did Vyvanse, a single ADHD medication, create such eye-watering returns on an, at the time, equally eye-watering $2.6 billion dollar investment? The answer, once again, is hidden in the itty bitty details. Vyvanse is a prodrug of dextroamphetamine known as LISdexamfetamine. And here is where the pattern finally begins to align (after 800 words of backstory, damn). Basically, a prodrug is a modified version of a drug that attaches another molecule, a ligand in Azstarys's case, that renders the active ingredient inert unless cleaved through your body's metabolic processes. In summary, it only work if you eat it. This has quite a few benefits. Not least of which is a longer duration as your body can only metabolize things so quickly due to the limitations of enzymatic action. This "gating" effect even has the potential to reduce side effects. Essentially a prodrug can improve qualities of the base medication. But the more important distinction is that you can patent it. Shire already had experience with ADHD medications. They're flagship product Adderall XR had seen monumental success but was about to go off-patent. This would expose Shire to the profit-decimating world of generics and so they eyeballed Vyvanse, being the novel prodrug lisdexamfetamine, for its brand new patent. Considering Shire's experienced sales team and established connections, converting Adderall users to Vyvanse would likely be as easy as informing doctor's and pharmacies of Vyvanse's improved qualities. SO WHAT?! "So what?" I hear you ask. Apples and oranges. That's a different drug with a different company so what does it have to do with KemPharm and Azstarys? I promise you, all of this backstory was necessary to explain exactly why KemPharm has so much potential. ------------------------------------------------------------ PART II - CONTRACTS, CORIUM, CAPITAL ------------------------------------------------------------ Azstarys will be brought to market Summer 2021 through their partner company Corium Inc. The sales contract between the companies offers up to $590M in sales and regulatory milestone guarantees in addition to tiered royalty payments ranging from ~9% to ~25%. This contract was recently renegotiated from $468M to $590M with a new higher top-level royalty tier and the addition of 4 new sales milestones guarantees in exchange for $28M less on the upfront. All in all, a decent agreement. Not earth-shattering but probably good enough to keep KemPharm afloat for the foreseeable future. But this still isn't enough to warrant an investment. Guarantees mean nothing unless the drug can sell. Sure, Azstarys is a prodrug but the performance of Vyvanse can't guarantee the success of Azstarys especially considering that Corium doesn't have the sales experience of Shire. …but what if they did?
Source: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/kempharm-inc-kmph-builds-repurposing-molecules-dan-sfera The current CEO of Corium is Perry Sternberg. The very same Perry Sternberg that spearheaded the commercialization of Vyvanse during his tenure at Shire. That alone raises an eyebrow but I invite you to go to Corium's website and look at their "Leadership" page: https://corium.com/leadership.html Tell me if you can spot the pattern: Robyn Lynch, Head of Corporate Strategy - Former Chief of Staff for U.S. Commercial Business and Neuroscience Division at Shire. John Miller, CFO - Former Head of Finance for Global Commercial at Shire. John Neeley, Head of Market Access - Former Head of Market Access at Shire. Jamie Spaeth, Head of HR - Former Head of HR at Shire. When I saw this I couldn't help but ask myself, "Why the hell are all these former Shire heads now working at Corium?" The answer… Gurnet Point Capital.
Source: kp415-market-opportunity-and-commercialization-strategy Ok... so who is Gurnet Point Capital? Gurnet Point Capital (GPC) is a healthcare fund founded by Ernesto Bertarelli, former CEO of Serono.
Source: https://www.gurnetpointcapital.com/about In late 2018 Gurnet Point Capital purchased Corium for a flat fee of $500 million. The former CEO, Peter Staple, was replaced with Perry Sternberg in April of 2019. But it wasn't just Sternyburgy that came along for the ride. GPC made a point to acquire his entire team. Specifically the team that made Vyvanse a commercial success. So why did they feel the need to recruit this exact team from Shire? The answer… Azstarys. Obviously this has been a lot of information so let me try to summarize everything I've detailed so far:
The thread is long and winding but the details are out there in the open. You can look up and verify every single piece of information so far and I encourage you to do so and come to your own conclusions. But I assure you that all of this information was needed to understand this next part. ------------------------------------------------------ PART III - MARKETS, MONEY, MATH ------------------------------------------------------ — WARNING: HERE THERE BE PERSONAL OPINIONS — What follows from this point on is my investment thesis and represents the reason why I decided to make a substantial investment into KemPharm. I want to be very clear that this is not financial advice nor a recommendation that you should invest in this company. As always, do your own research. With that warning out of the way, let's talk about the stock. During KemPharm's latest Earnings Call on March 11, 2021, Travis Mickle and team detailed the various changes that have taken place just in the past few months:
Source: https://www.transcriptshare.com/s/kmph/q4-2020 All of these events occurred in Q1 and have led to considerable confusion across the internet in regards to the accuracy of information regarding KMPH. But taking these new developments into account, a very different picture begins to form in regards to KemPharm's future. The current stock price as of the very moment I'm writing this is $8.70. Assuming a full dilution of all 38.6M shares that gives a market cap of ~$340M. Accounting for Cash on Hand, that means that ~$260M of this company's worth is attributed to Azstarys, Apadaz, their pipeline, their technology, and Dr. Mickle's brain in a jar. NOTE: This doesn't account for cash due from converted warrants and approval guarantees which could net an additional ~$80M and bring their CoH to ~$150M. This will be clarified in the next ER. Taking all of this into consideration, I asked myself 2 questions:
To answer the first question, I needed to gain a better understanding of the ADHD market as a whole. The ~$18B industry currently has 21 existing treatments spread across 3 primary classes:
The current largest player in the field is Vyvanse at a whopping 13% of the TOTAL market and 18% of the stimulant category (class 1 & 2). Competitors like Focalin XR & Concerta comprise about 1% each. So we have some comparatives for market performance but I still prefer to take the pessimistic approach. My question is, what is the bare minimum performance required to simply NOT GO BANKRUPT. According to KemPharm they have a projected Annual Cash Burn of ~$4M (source) Considering this and assuming a low-ball 10% royalty rate (~8-25% potential) with only 5% of the potential $550M in milestone guarantees received over a 10 year period, how much market size would Azstarys have to capture in order for KemPharm to not go bankrupt in a worst case scenario? — WARNING: HERE THERE BE NAPKIN MATH — (operating expenses) = (total annual market)(required market share)(royalty rate) + ((milestone payments)(percent received))/(10 year period) x = required market share ($4,000,000) = ($18,000,000,000)(x)(0.1) + (($550,000,000)(0.05))/(10) 4,000,000 = 1,800,000,000x + 2,750,000 1,250,000 = 1,800,000,000x x = 0.00069 = 0.069% required market share This obviously relies on guesswork and doesn't account for things like CAGR, taxes, manufacturing costs, or inflation, so let's make it even harder for KemPharm and double the required market share. So in order for KemPharm to not go bankrupt, assuming they sit on their ass and do nothing until the end of time, Azstarys needs just 0.14% of the market or $25.2M in average annual sales over a 10 year period to earn an income of $4M. Obviously this ignores the scaling royalty rate and any further sales milestones but I prefer err on the side of caution when making wild, speculative assumptions. Helps to keep things in perspective. So that's the bare minimum amount that Azstarys is allowed to suck before KemPharm implodes. Should Azstarys manage to perform on the same level as the lower competitors at around 1% you would certainly see a rise in KemPharm's stock price even with a below-average P/E ratio. And given their partner Corium's experience with the commercialization of Vyvanse there's very little reason to believe that this goal couldn't be achieved. Furthermore, I believe that Azstarys will exceed it. Source: https://www.transcriptshare.com/s/kmph/kp415-approval-call Additional data: https://kempharm.gcs-web.com/static-files/af3b9f16-a8f5-462d-80be-55266dccab75 ------------------------------------------------ PART IV - ALL AHEAD AZSTARYS ------------------------------------------------ It is my personal belief that KemPharm has crossed the threshold of uncertainty and has secured the financial stability necessary to confidently pursue the development of exponentially more prodrugs. I believe that KemPharm's partner Corium has the ideal combination of experience and financial backing to optimize Azstarys's success. I believe that Azstarys offers unique benefits that will improve the quality of care for patients with ADHD, myself included. I believe that KemPharm is extremely undervalued. To view KemPharm as a company in peril is simply a matter of outdated information. It seems to me that their value is hidden beneath layers of historical uncertainty and investor pessimism which makes it an excellent buying opportunity for those capable and willing to see its potential. The arguments that Azstarys will fail to be competitive against its competitors or generics doesn't hold water considering the fact that Azstarys has no therapeutic equivalents (source) and is patented until 2037. An additional point is that Azstarys was approved for all ages 6 and up (https://www.azstarys.com) instead of just 6-17 which was a surprise inclusion upon approval and serves to further expand the potential market. The FDA also included a section in the label with clinical data suggesting that Azstarys has reduced impedance of childhood growth and development (Section 6.1). This particular issue is often cited as the primary complaint from parents of children with ADHD. Critics of Azstarys focus heavily on the obscurity of it's potential duration (the often referenced 30/13) and consider the inclusion of a chart without this specific language on the label as sufficient cause for dismissal. To me, this argument comes from a place of ignorance and a severe lack of perspective. Yes, certain terms of the sales agreement are contingent on this specific language but this point has yet to be confirmed or denied. Furthermore this language's effect on actual sales is largely overestimated. All extended release products are long lasting by design but the key differentiating factor between Azstarys and its competitors is that it is, in fact, a prodrug. And as a prodrug its primary differentiation between it and other medications is the smooth downward efficacy ramp as the body metabolizes the medication at a consistent rate. (Section 12.3 Figure 1) To put it plainly, other extended release products are equivalent to a caffeine crash. I know this because I experience it every single day. The more interesting takeaway is that this medication's formula and prodrug status allows it to differentiate from not just Methylphenidate products, but from Vyvanse itself. The primary criticism for Vyvanse is its slow onset (Up to 1.5 Hours) but Azstarys is formulated with instant release dexmethylphenidate alongside serdexmethylphenidate for faster onset. This opens up the possibility that Azstarys won't just be competing for market share on the Methylphenidate side but may be able to cross over to the Amphetamine side and capture market share directly from Vyvanse. And while I don't assume that its performance will be equivalent to Vyvanse, it is impossible to ignore the potent combination of product and people at play. Corium's recruitment of the former Shire team has given Azstarys the best possible chance to succeed. Who better to have on your product's side than the very same people that made Vyvanse the leading ADHD medication in the business. And as a final anecdote, I have already spoken to my doctor about Azstarys and we both agree that it will be my next medication. Not because I believe in the company or want to help with sales. But because I've tried just about every medication on the market and want the best treatment possible. And Azstarys just seems better. So that just leaves one last question: can KemPharm continue to innovate? The answer… Travis Mickle. While there is no data in the world that can anticipate the future actions of any one person, I have a gut feeling that there might just be some magic left in the old Mickster. I'll end this overly long DD with a simple quote and leave it to you to decide for yourself:
Source: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/kempharm-inc-kmph-builds-repurposing-molecules-dan-sfera/ [link] [comments]  | ||
| Posted: 09 Jun 2021 07:23 AM PDT
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| Posted: 09 Jun 2021 07:25 PM PDT
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| Posted: 09 Jun 2021 05:12 PM PDT
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| $BCTX, a shorted cancer stock (MEGA DD) Posted: 09 Jun 2021 12:30 PM PDT note from me: I didnt write this, but I am very long. I actually borrowed this from the wall street bets page. The wall st bets crew is just discovering this now. Institutional investors are dying to get in. The float is TINY. The mkt cap is TINY. Good luck to everyone in all your investments BriaCell Therapeutics ($BCTX) MASSIVE POTENTIAL $BCTX has potential to run 1000-10000%! It's currently a "micro-cap" but it DESERVES to be a large cap stock worth MINIMUM 1 bil marketcap. It's only a matter of WHEN not IF. It's a cancer treatment company specifically focused on breast cancer currently and shorts are trying hard to take it down. F#*K CANCER AND F#*K the shorts who have no human decency for trying to take down a company curing cancer. PT $100-300 DD:
Valuation:
tl;dr: This stock will be sitting in the triple digits within a year, with or without this squeeze. However, I hate seeing shorts trying to destroy a company that is changing lives and curing cancer. Let's squeeze them out of all their money, they deserve it. [link] [comments]  | ||
| Posted: 09 Jun 2021 12:33 PM PDT
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| Posted: 09 Jun 2021 07:46 PM PDT
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| A few Potential Plays for the Next Few Days - IWM, VMW, PENN - Options Flow and Technical Analysis Posted: 09 Jun 2021 07:34 PM PDT
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| $POWW up big today. Russell 2000 inclusion at end of month. Get in while you can! ���� Posted: 09 Jun 2021 01:24 PM PDT
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