Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - June 10, 2021 Investing |
- Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - June 10, 2021
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- CPI rises .6% in May, rate of inflation rises to 5%
- Meme Stocks Under Official SEC Investigation
- Modern Portfolio Theory vs Buy & Hold of SP500
- How to Benefit from the Downfall of HOG?
- Does anyone just take profit at certain percentages no matter what?
- Professor Damodaran: The Rise of SPACs: IPO Disruptors or Blank Check Distortions?
- Could a stock market as we know it today continue to exist with a declining population?
- P/E ratio changing a lot, is that normal?
- Large cap ETFs or diversified equities that don’t pay a dividend?
- Do ETFs pose systematic risk? [Research paper]
- strategy help for mitigating losses once a trade goes south
- What has been your experience buying VIX options?
- Any buy and hold levered ETF strategy?
- Just found a Weird put option - Any help would be appreciate
- Why are investment firms like Blackrock and others buying up single family homes across the US?
- Anyone know the status of SmartStocks.com ??
- Why does BRK trade for 1.5 Price to Book? Understanding its Balance Sheet…
- Atossa Therapeutics - Showing promising P2 trials for breast cancer treatment
- single family home rentals after housing crashes
- $FRX Openfit and Concierge Health Announce At-Home Exercise Incentives
| Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - June 10, 2021 Posted: 10 Jun 2021 02:01 AM PDT Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! This thread is for:
Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google. If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions. Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed. [link] [comments]  |
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 10 Jun 2021 02:00 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| CPI rises .6% in May, rate of inflation rises to 5% Posted: 10 Jun 2021 05:45 AM PDT
Edit: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ and their news release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm [link] [comments]  |
| Meme Stocks Under Official SEC Investigation Posted: 09 Jun 2021 06:22 PM PDT "GameStop Corp. GME  disclosed late Wednesday that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has asked for its cooperation with an investigation into the unprecedented volatility its stock has seen in recent months. The company also suggested it's not the only one being probed It wasn't alone. Shares of AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.AMC  fell as much as 8.3%, BlackBerry Ltd.BB  5.2%, Koss CorpKOSS  1.3%, and Nokia Corp.NOK  0.9% in extended trading following the news, with many investors already bracing for SEC commissioner Gensler to take a closer look at the meme stock phenomenon. "The newly-appointed Wall Street top cop on Monday signaled that meme stocks were on his radar when the agency stated that "SEC staff continues to monitor the market in light of the ongoing volatility in certain stocks to determine if there have been any disruptions of the market, manipulative trading, or other misconduct." https://on.mktw.net/3g8nmBZ Check out this article from MarketWatch [link] [comments]  |
| Modern Portfolio Theory vs Buy & Hold of SP500 Posted: 10 Jun 2021 07:56 AM PDT I've recently hired a wealth management firm who embrace the MPT, and claim they can beat the SP500 over time by effective utilization of rebalancing and tax harvesting an MPT portfolio. They're also telling me to expect an average of 9% annual gains over the course of a 30 year investment lifetime. My question is for those with a bit of experience with both (I know more people will have SP500 experience than true professionally managed MPT), but is it worth a 1% annual fee to go for 9% when that's roughly the average annual return of the SP500 anyway? I know the primary benefit, as I understand it, of the MPT isn't necessarily the actual gains, but the standard deviation over time in relation to those gains. If you can take 9% with less volatility than the same return with more volatility, it's better... but I'm just curious how this has actually played out for folks. Any feedback from those with some experience would be greatly appreciated. Also for those that are curious here's how the theory is applied https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TJQhQ2GZ0Y [link] [comments]  |
| How to Benefit from the Downfall of HOG? Posted: 10 Jun 2021 07:42 AM PDT Personally, I think HOG is incredibly overpriced. Their base is slowly dying off from old age, and it just isn't cool to ride a Harley anymore. Also, I believe a lot of their customers will fail to make payments on the new motorcycles they got during the pandemic. HOG makes over 30% of their income off of these loans, so this could really hurt them. All in all, I believe HOG will fall sharply in the next year or two. How do I benefit from this though? There is almost no liquidity in their options so puts are off the table. The only other option I know of is shorting the stock, but is there any other way some of you know of? TLDR: HOG will go down, but low option volume. What are ways I can benefit? [link] [comments]  |
| Does anyone just take profit at certain percentages no matter what? Posted: 09 Jun 2021 08:37 PM PDT I have boring 3-fund setups for retirement and brokerage over at Vanguard, but this post is more regarding the amount I put towards "play money". I use Robinhood for this account, I know people dog on it, but it works for me for this. But, I'm not sure how I should handle this account. My goal is to just make some side money, big or small. For example, I'm up about 15% ($500) on BARK right now. Honestly, I haven't been very lucky with this account, and I'll usually get out of a position about break-even if I don't like the way it's going or I watch the price go up and back down, I guess I'm a cautious casino player. But I was curious if anyone out there just takes profit at 5%, or 10%, etc no matter what? Just to take that profit no matter what at a set percentage? If so, how does it work out for you? Hopefully this is OK to post here, I was just thinking about it and got curious. [link] [comments]  |
| Professor Damodaran: The Rise of SPACs: IPO Disruptors or Blank Check Distortions? Posted: 10 Jun 2021 08:30 AM PDT The professor has given another educational thought provoking overview sharing his thoughts on the SPAC process. It is worth reading his blog and watching the video. For me, the most insightful was the last 10 minutes. If you do not know him, he is a Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at NYU. He teaches classes in corporate finance and valuation, primarily to MBAs, but generally to anyone who will listen. HIs blog covers many topics but the one I find most interesting are his valuation analyses of TSLA and ABNB. Good Luck in your investment strategy. [link] [comments]  |
| Could a stock market as we know it today continue to exist with a declining population? Posted: 09 Jun 2021 11:36 AM PDT https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/22/world/global-population-shrinking.html Scientists predict that towards the middle of the century deaths will exceed births. Was wondering what effect this may have on the the stock market and infinite growth model. Could the S&P 500 realistically be capable of sustaining a near 7% annual growth without more humans being born each year to drive up demand? Looking beyond that, wouldn't less humans mean fewer demand for goods and services, causing shrinking GDP and therefore assets prices to decline? In which case the stock market no longer works. [link] [comments]  |
| P/E ratio changing a lot, is that normal? Posted: 10 Jun 2021 07:53 AM PDT I use schwab for investing. Often I will invest in a company that I feel is fairly valued, or even inexpensive. It may have a P/E ratio of 10. But a couple of days later, that P/E ratio becomes 35! I don't know why the P/E ratios jump around that much in a matter of days. Happens to me regularly on my stock picks. Is that a schwab issue or is it normal? If normal, doesn't make sense to rely on P/E ratio for valuation purposes...is there a better measure? [link] [comments]  |
| Large cap ETFs or diversified equities that don’t pay a dividend? Posted: 10 Jun 2021 07:35 AM PDT Hello, I am exempt from taxes (Puerto Rico Act 60) on capital gains but not on US-sourced income (dividends from US-based equities and funds). I would like to park a large part (maybe 75%) of holdings currently in cash yielding 0.65% in a relatively safe portfolio with target growth of 5-10% a year and draw 5% a year as capital gains for ongoing expenses. BRK comes to mind and will definitely be at least part of holdings (like the exposure to AAPL without the dividends) but would you caution against making it 100%? I was thinking more 50% balanced out by one other holding. SPY and VTI both pay a dividend of 1.3%. Is this because the SP500 averages about 1% dividend? Could anyone please suggest something very similar but which reinvests gains rather than pay a dividend? Thank you very much! [link] [comments]  |
| Do ETFs pose systematic risk? [Research paper] Posted: 10 Jun 2021 08:42 AM PDT Read the full report here. etfs-and-systemic-risks.ashx (cfainstitute.org) Find below the opening sections. The foundations of our present understanding of financial markets lie in the classic theories of portfolio choice (Markowitz 1952) and market general equilibrium (Treynor 1999; Lintner 1965; Sharpe 1964). A basic insight from these theories is that an asset's price can be decomposed into two factors: (1) an idiosyncratic factor specific to the asset and (2) a systematic factor common to all assets in the market. In a mean–variance world, this insight implies that the optimal portfolio choice for all market participants should be some combination of a risk-free asset and a well-diversified market portfolio. A straightforward explanation for the introduction of—and subsequent explosion in demand for—index products such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is the need for such well-diversified portfolios. As happens often in economics, such an explanation, while broadly true, glosses over many finer details of the story—and the devil, as always, is in the details. Do ETFs affect systemic risks in financial markets, and if they do, via what mechanism? How robust are our markets to the risks, and what can we do to keep the risks under control? Are certain markets more prone than others to such risks? In this paper, we dig deeper into ETFs to examine such questions. One could go about this task in multiple ways—from citing empirical evidence in markets to analyzing mathematical models of ETF trading. We choose a middle ground here, favoring explanations well-grounded in economic theory that can nevertheless be examined in light of existing empirical evidence # The core issue with ETFs is best explained using an analogy. When the first Standard & Poor's Depositary Receipt (SPDR) ETF was launched in 1993, index products were envisioned as passengers in a car driven by underlying markets. Because of a multitude of factors, the roles have now reversed in many markets, with ETFs in the driver's seat and underlying markets relegated to the status of mere passengers. ETFs were admitted into the car as passengers, which means they never had to pass a rigorous driving test. In other words, we do not know how well they drive. Further, given that they now occupy the driver's seat in many markets as a fait accompli, asking them to stop and take a proper test risks bringing the car to a complete halt. Under such conditions, how do regulators decide which ETFs really know how to drive, and how do we deal with the ones that seem to be dodgy drivers? An index product such as an ETF, by its very nature, emphasizes the systematic factor over idiosyncratic factors. This is because, in a basket, the idiosyncratic factors cancel each other out, leaving the systematic factor as the central determinant of price. When index products become the chief driver of markets, the systematic factor becomes the key mover of not just index prices but also all underlying asset prices. This is a problem because an asset's price is then less reflective of the specifics in that asset market. Furthermore, as the distinctiveness of assets gets lost, traders can more easily engage in speculative herding strategies. Herding behavior is what turns potential weaknesses into systemic risks, allowing problems in one market to easily spill over into other markets. [link] [comments]  |
| strategy help for mitigating losses once a trade goes south Posted: 10 Jun 2021 10:11 AM PDT what are they ways that people trade defensively in a given ticker when an initial trade made turns out to have momentum in the opposite direction originally anticipated? For example, let's say you are long $CLOV at it's height ($24+). It is now trading like 40% lower around $14/share. You could cut your losses and take ~$10/share loss, but are there strategies for hedging against (and maybe reversing) your loss? One idea that comes to mind is to open a short position to capture some profit on the downward momentum, but unless you close the long position before opening the short position, the losses on the long position will continue to increase. [link] [comments]  |
| What has been your experience buying VIX options? Posted: 10 Jun 2021 09:56 AM PDT When you place your order it says "Quoting - VIX index options quotes are based on the expected value at expiration, and are not the same as the "spot" price, which represents the current index value." In your opinion, have you had success with VIX options? Right now VIX is low, and I'd like to catch and sell a spike. Is this a bad move? Text from E-Trade: Please keep in mind the following important differences between VIX and other index options. Quoting - VIX index options quotes are based on the expected value at expiration, and are not the same as the "spot" price, which represents the current index value. Expiration and settlement - VIX index options normally expire on a Wednesday, with settlement completed the following day. The last trade day is the Tuesday before expiration. [link] [comments]  |
| Any buy and hold levered ETF strategy? Posted: 10 Jun 2021 09:44 AM PDT I'm aware of the classic reason why it's thought ill-advised to buy and hold levered ETFs: "Multiplying daily vs. total returns may sound like a subtle difference, but it's one that leads to wildly different math. For starters, even a non-leveraged fund that falls 10% in one day can't make it back up with a simple 10% increase the following day. A $100 share that falls 10% in one day is worth $90 at the end of the day. But if its price goes up 10% on the second day, that's a 10% increase from $90, putting the price at $99. There's an erosion that occurs with a daily reset, and when a fund is leveraged, that erosion is magnified." But came across this alternative perspective: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3769806 A particular portfolio of 40 percent TQQQ, 20 percent TMF, 40 percent TLT with monthly rebalancing proposed by us in the 2017 paper as a leveraged ETF alternative to classical stocks/bonds portfolios performed well in 2018 and through the Coronavirus crisis up to January 15, 2021. New to bond investments and would love to hear any thoughts. It would seem this strategy worked because the Fed intervened but what about when interest rates eventually rise? Per another post: "If you have an equity heavy portfolio (like most people) TLT is probably the best bond fund for diversification during a stock market crisis. But don't think of it as low risk. It's just a different risk from your equity allocation and one that hopefully offsets the equity risk during a crisis. If you want safety and low absolute risk level look at shorter duration bond funds." Would this model portfolio outperform a typical 100% equity portfolio simply based on flight away from stocks without FOMC intervention? [link] [comments]  |
| Just found a Weird put option - Any help would be appreciate Posted: 10 Jun 2021 09:23 AM PDT Hello, I asked this question in another subreddit and I havent have an asnwer yet, and really I would like someone more intelligent than me to see if they can find the catch before I try to close this contract and get stuck with some stocks that I dont want. Im looking to buy an option which the price of the stock is around 9 dollars, but then I saw they have a Put option of 15 dollars with a price of 55 cents. basically, that put the option in the money with around 40% benefit. But this must be a mistake, or it might have a catch to it. The option is only in sell and there is not buyers to it, so I would have to exercise the put option, which of course I dont mind and will sell it right away. But am I missing something? I just cant find the trap on it. PD. I just found another put option in 60 dollars! weird thing is I can find it in the cell phone app but not in the website. [link] [comments]  |
| Why are investment firms like Blackrock and others buying up single family homes across the US? Posted: 10 Jun 2021 10:46 AM PDT Saw this article by wall street journal, it says these firms are buying up thousands of houses to rent out. Why are they doing this instead of buying public stocks or private companies? Isn't the return of single family real estate lower? What is the long term plan for them? It's not like they are getting deals on them. They are paying above asking for many of these properties at already sky high prices. Can anyone explain this? [link] [comments]  |
| Anyone know the status of SmartStocks.com ?? Posted: 10 Jun 2021 10:37 AM PDT I used this free online stock trading site in a FIN101 class a few years ago and wanted to share it with some younger kids just graduating high school. However, I can no longer find the website, my browser blocks me from reaching the site due to SSL certificate issues. Anyone know the app, and/or what happened to it? Just curious. I tried doing some searches and find very little. I was doing incredibly well in this, btw, and was kinda curious how my stock picks were doing now. Kinda disappointed on both fronts, actually... [link] [comments]  |
| Why does BRK trade for 1.5 Price to Book? Understanding its Balance Sheet… Posted: 10 Jun 2021 10:31 AM PDT It is currently close to its historic average of 1.6 P/B. It seems like it approached 1x three times in recent history: during the Great Recession, briefly in 2011, and last year during COVID. Does the 50% premium over book value imply the market expects it to outperform its holdings? Simply buying AAPL, BAC, AXP, KO, and KHC would mirror 75% of the portfolio. Or is this premium to buy parts of its closely held other businesses in insurance, energy, and manufacturing/transport/retail? I'm looking over the annual report: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2020ar/2020ar.pdf But I'm having trouble understanding the company as a whole. If BRK were a mutual fund, what percentage of its portfolio would be its own business subsidiaries (vs. ownership in public companies such as AAPL and BAC?). What's the best line in the financial statement to estimate this? Thank you very much. [link] [comments]  |
| Atossa Therapeutics - Showing promising P2 trials for breast cancer treatment Posted: 09 Jun 2021 02:22 PM PDT $ATOS A novel breast cancer drug developer that's being shorted to oblivion by hedge funds. The market share for these treatments is astronomical!
Do it for the boobies y'all! Just posted successful phase 2 trials and phase 3 is expected to fast track to FDA approval. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/atossa-therapeutics-announces-final-data-130000497.html "Based on these favorable results, we are taking a number of steps to quickly advance our development of Endoxifen," commented Steven Quay, M.D., Ph.D., Atossa's President and Chief Executive Officer. "We have begun the formal non-clinical toxicology program that will be needed for a New Drug Application to seek marketing approval for Endoxifen and plan to apply to the U.S. FDA for approval to conduct a clinical study here in the United States as soon as possible. We expect the next clinical study to measure pathological complete response in the neoadjuvant setting. Although there are several FDA-approved neoadjuvant therapies for breast cancers that are not estrogen receptor positive (ER+), currently there are very few approved therapies for the approximately 78% of breast cancers, which are ER+ that we believe creates a significant unmet need for our Endoxifen." NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, JUST MY OWN OPINION AND RESEARCH. [link] [comments]  |
| single family home rentals after housing crashes Posted: 10 Jun 2021 08:24 AM PDT Does anyone know how many single family homes became rentals after the housing crash in 2008? I have a feeling we're headed that way, and it seems some big firms are trying to gobble up substantial chunks of the market and destroy home ownership for the lower classes even more. Is there a way for the investors to fight back against this, since this affects us in real life, or are you guys all banking on douchers like Blackrock to make you money while killing part of the American dream? Just random thoughts. let me know what you think. [link] [comments]  |
| $FRX Openfit and Concierge Health Announce At-Home Exercise Incentives Posted: 09 Jun 2021 06:14 PM PDT June 09, 2021 08:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time SANTA MONICA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Openfit, one of today's fastest growing all-in-one digital platforms for fitness, nutrition and wellness, and Concierge Health, a technology platform that provides health engagement solutions to reduce healthcare costs, improve outcomes and enhance the member experience, today announced a partnership to provide insurance policy holders and corporate wellness program members with compelling rewards and reimbursements based on their activity in the Openfit app. Concierge Health's network in Insurance, Medicare and Corporate Programs currently reaches more than 150M users. Openfit is part of the Beachbody Company's family of companies, which also includes the Beachbody On Demand platform.
Accurately tracking member activity is critical to the increasing trend of using wellness activities to reduce healthcare costs. Openfit and Concierge Health's unique partnership broadens access to these benefits, allowing members to engage in a wide variety of fitness classes offered by Openfit, track their workout anywhere and at any time and ultimately receive credit for that activity. As credit was previously allocated based on visits to brick and mortar gyms, this partnership seeks to more deeply embed health and wellness activities in members' lives with convenient and accessible experiences. "Our partnership with Concierge Health will allow Openfit to expand its goals of making health and wellness accessible to everyone - not just those who work out at a gym - while seamlessly integrating fitness activities with incentives and rewards," said Jon Congdon, Openfit's CEO. "We support Concierge Health's mission of reducing health care costs by providing a holistic digital wellness solution that is simple, affordable, and effective, and includes a wide variety of best in class fitness options." A survey conducted by Wakefield Research revealed that 87% of respondents who already did or will feel comfortable working out in a gym said that they would continue pumping and burning from their living rooms and 85% of respondents agreed that at home fitness provides convenience and accessibility benefits. This partnership underscores the expected continued growth of the at home fitness market, which is estimated will reach $59 billion by 2027. "The introduction of Openfit to the Concierge Health Network will provide in-demand content and expand member opportunities for engagement and rewards," said Matthew Schober, Chief Development Officer of Concierge Health. "With our shared missions and values, I am confident that our collaboration with Openfit will create innovative opportunities for both platforms and better health outcomes for our members." Openfit is available on Openfit.com, iOS, Android, Roku, Apple TV, Fire TV and Samsung TV (through Samsung Health) devices, in addition to Apple Watch support. A one-stop-shop for members, Openfit makes health goals achievable for everyone, no matter where they are in their health and wellness journey. ABOUT OPENFIT: Openfit is the digital streaming platform that integrates fitness, nutrition, and wellness together in one place. At Openfit, we provide world-class fitness programs with over 450 live trainer-led classes per week and on-demand workouts designed to reach any goal, personalized nutrition plans and tracking. As convenient as your smart phone in the palm of your hand, Openfit takes what's so powerful about boutique, small-group fitness and makes it available to everyone at a fraction of the price. Join us at Openfit.com, on Facebook at facebook.com/Openfit, and on Instagram @myOpenfit. Openfit offers a wide variety of on-demand programs, including 4 Weeks of Focus with Shay Mitchell and Kelsey Heenan, Xtend Barre, XB Pilates and XB Stretch with Andrea Rogers, bodyweight-only program JBYB (Just Bring Your Body), 600 Secs with Devin Wiggins, as well as Sound Meditation, daily meal plans, nutrition tracking and 1,000+ recipes for those who are looking for the complete wellness solution. In addition, Openfit Live offers trainer-hosted classes featuring two-way communication between members and NASM-certified trainers for real-time feedback, motivation and coaching through optional use of their device's camera. Openfit also recently partnered with a number of top fitness influencers, including Jen Widerstrom, Lita Lewis, Joey Thurman, Sophia Rose and Lisa Hubbard, to create exclusive, four-week programs tailored to their respective areas of expertise. ABOUT CONCIERGE HEALTH: Concierge Health, a Las Vegas based wellness company, provides an integrative, data aggregation platform focused on enhancing consumer health and wellness experiences. Concierge Health connects health clubs, health insurance, and wellness companies through a proprietary process to automate incentives and rewards. Concierge Health's features and services seamlessly bring together industries to enhance the business operation and customer understanding while providing consumers an improved, innovative experience. https://www.conciergehealth.co [link] [comments]  |
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