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    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - May 05, 2021

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - May 05, 2021


    r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - May 05, 2021

    Posted: 05 May 2021 02:30 AM PDT

    These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday including during our themed posts.

    Some helpful links:

    If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

    Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky..

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Peloton Recalls Treadmills After Safety Warnings

    Posted: 05 May 2021 08:27 AM PDT

    https://nyti.ms/2QZBxiN

    Peloton is recalling its Tread+ and Tread treadmills, the at-home fitness company said on Wednesday, less than a month after it fought the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission as it warned that dozens of injuries and one death of a child had been linked to the machines.

    The commission, which issued an "urgent warning" for the machines in April, urged people who own the treadmills to immediately stop using them. Peloton is offering a full refund for the $4,295 machine with a 32-inch touch screen that allows runners to work out with the aid of instructors.

    John Foley, the chief executive of Peloton, said in a statement Wednesday that the company had "made a mistake" by fighting the agency's request to recall the treadmills, and apologized for not engaging "more productively with them from the outset."

    "The decision to recall both products was the right thing to do for Peloton's members and their families," he said in the statement.

    The machines were sold in the United States from November to March. The company is working on a repair to be offered to customers "in the coming weeks," the commission said in a statement. The software improvements will automatically lock the Tread+ after use and require a four-digit passcode to unlock it, the commission said.

    "Today we have taken steps to prevent further harm from these two products," Robert S. Adler, the acting chairman of the commission, said in the statement.

    The commission said it had received 72 reports of adults, children, pets and objects being pulled under the rear of the treadmill. Twenty-nine involved children, including a 6-year-old boy who died.

    After the death of the child in March, the company urged users to keep Peloton products where children can't get to them and store safety keys away from children

    submitted by /u/NPRjunkieDC
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    What is a good way to learn about those stocks that aren't known to the normal average joe.

    Posted: 05 May 2021 06:43 AM PDT

    I started dipping my toes into the stock market back in Feb when the whole craze blew up and it made me a small but good profit. All this time I only really invested into companies that are big and everyone recognizes (Car manufacturers, cell phone companies, etc.) Where can I find information about those stocks that aren't necessarily small but its not known to the average joe. I'm talking about those stocks that makes medicines or they make parts for a big company.

    submitted by /u/Khriz-134
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    $ASTS a revolution in 5G [Resubmit]

    Posted: 05 May 2021 08:13 AM PDT

    Resubmit: Sorry mods, I made a mistake and provided a link to a youtube channel. Moreover, I added a Risk section as it was lacking before.

    Today, I will cover $ASTS, AST Space Mobile. The company will provide 5G capabilities to regular cellphones from space, they target the 5 billion phones moving in and out of coverage every day or in monetary terms $1T in TAM.

    Why should you care?

    The recent market hit to high growth/speculative plays has not spared ASTS. This has put the stock at a relatively attractive valuation at approximately $1.2B (cheaper than for PIPE investors who bought in at $1.4B).

    The company represents the most asymmetric risk/reward play on the market right now. It will either 20x-100x or go bust. Let me explain if they get only 1% of their TAM, which is ~$10B then at a cheap (assuming about 80% net margin, thanks to their 90% EBITDA margin) P/E ratio of 12x (telecom industry average is 30x according to Damodaran), it gives the company a $96B market capitalization, representing an 80x opportunity.

    Alright… 100x if everything goes well, right?

    Yes, let me tell you why I and many others (some incredible DD from other investors like u/apan-man) think that the company will succeed. Because this is a highly speculative play and will give you a VC-like risk/reward exposure, I analyzed it like a VC using the BMC (desirability, feasibility, and viability).

    Desirability

    Targeted Segment

    Their satellites will offer services to large telecom companies, which will help telecom companies expand their subscriber base and have a unique competitive advantage against other carriers. Think of AST's satellites like 5G towers in space. Of the currently 5B existing end users, the company has 800M subscribers under exclusivity agreements with companies like Vodafone, AT&T, Rakuten, Telefonica, Ooredoo, Telstra, and others.

    To put this a bit into perspective, the only other company really trying to achieve that is Lynk, but they have only $10M in funding compared to $464M for ASTS, and currently do not have any commercial agreements.

    Customer Relationships & Channels

    All the customer relationship services, as well as sales efforts, are done by the carriers. Basically, AST provides the 5G capability and the carrier offers it to its subscribers moving in and out of coverage. This is a good reason why the future cost structure of ASTS is so attractive.

    Value Proposition

    Designed to eliminate coverage gaps and enable billions of people globally to stay connected through their mobile phones. Imagine watching hot tub streams on the plane.

    Feasibility

    Key Partners

    In the value chain, AST designs, integrates and tests the satellites while their subsidiary Nanoavionics builds the main components. They will use any available launch services such as SpaceX, Blue Origin, GK Launch Services, Ariane, etc. The fact that they have a wide array of choices available greatly reduces successful launch risks. Moreover, the main reason why the space-based applications industry will absolutely explode in the coming years is the ever-decreasing launch costs (price to send a kg of payload in space).

    Regarding financial and strategic partners, the company has received funding from Vodafone, Rakuten, American Tower, and Samsung in previous rounds as well as in the PIPE 12-month lock-up.

    Key Activities

    AST will design and integrate the satellites. The company's CEO Abel Avellan is also a big believer in creating huge barriers to entry, they patent a lot of the key elements of their business model.

    Of course, their biggest focus is getting the service up and running by 2023. Abel is also working on new wireless carrier agreements. To give you an idea, on average 1 telecom adds around 200M subscribers.

    Future agreements won't be mutually exclusive (like with Vodafone), so they can add as many carriers as they want.

    Key Resources

    Talent, technology, and funding.

    Abel Avellan is not much of a salesman, but he is a genius, he seeded AST and was the main contributor to a lot of the technologies that enable the 5G satellites to work.

    As mentioned previously, they managed to attract funding from Vodafone, American Tower, and Rakuten. Vodafone spent nearly 18 months doing due diligence on AST's technology and has concluded that it works.

    For further funding, ASTS is participating in the $9B 5G rural fund for America. They currently have the support of 7 senators (bipartisan) and AT&T. In my opinion, there is the potential for AST to get about $1B in non-dilutive funding from the government, which would significantly accelerate the company's plan for global coverage.

    Viability

    Revenue Streams

    Revenues come from an agreement with telecom providers, basically comes in the form of a monthly subscription fee. The end-user is seamlessly connected from towers on the ground to AST satellites.

    Cost Structure

    Because the satellites are in LEO orbit, they will need to be changed every 5-7 years. The company is working on a way to repair/extend the lifetime of existing satellites.

    Now let's talk about an important topic: Risk.

    Risk

    Tech(nichal/nology) risks

    • Launch delays for BW3 (final full-size prototype) might increase costs. especially as they are not the main ride on the launch vehicle. This is a risk in the short term as the launch is scheduled for Q4 2021.

    • Technology does not work. While I think this has been largely minimized after the successful launch of BW1, there are some smarter people that believe it is both effective and amazing.

    • The company does not get licenses to operate the frequencies in target countries. Abel and the Board of Directors are very well connected and they have the support of huge telecom companies like Vodafone.

    Commercial risks

    • End-users do not see value in extended coverage from their current carriers. Difficult to see why that would be the case.

    • Telecom companies do not see value in AST's offering. AST Space Mobile has already a lot of agreements in place that suggests otherwise.

    From a risk perspective, technical and technological risks are quite high and are the big reason why the stock has not priced in the potential upside. The company could literally go to 0 (or close to it if they can sell some of their techs/patents/etc.). However, I believe the company offers a unique risk/reward ratio that is difficult to find on the market.

    The long-term play

    Shares, shares, shares.

    The short-term play

    The stock has been severely beaten down and could regain some momentum in the coming weeks. Furthermore, the stock has a relatively small float and could be very explosive on any news, such as new carrier agreements, analyst coverage, etc. Abel Avellan has mentioned that they are in the process of signing a new 500M subscribers' agreement and the silent period ends this Friday.

    TL;DR $ASTS is the most asymmetric play on the market right, either 100x or 0x in a few years

    Disclosure: 35,000 shares

    Edit: While we may see movement on catalysts after the silent period ends, this is mainly a long-term (2-3 years) investment into a very asymmetric opportunity.

    Edit2: Thanks for all the feedback so far. I added a Risk section.

    submitted by /u/Only6Inches
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    If you inherited $200,000 today. How would you go about investing in today's market/financial climate?

    Posted: 05 May 2021 12:19 AM PDT

    Still learning about the market and diversification. Purely theoretical, but would be greatful for others thoughts. Whether it be bonds,stocks,etfs and how to balance the portfolio / whether to hold a certain amount of cash for opportunities etc.

    Any opinions would be great!

    submitted by /u/Scottysewell
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    The 6 phase model of how this uranium bull market might unfold

    Posted: 05 May 2021 06:53 AM PDT

    The recent run up in equities has people questioning if they missed the top, if they are too late and if this was already the end of a young bull market in uranium. This couldn't be further from the truth, as a long term price per pound of uranium is still in need of between 50 and 60 dollars. If it doesn't reach this target within the next three years, we are in for much bigger issues and this will not be allowed to happen in my view. As part of the research document I wrote on uranium investing, I constructed a phase model that walks us through every part of what I think will be a generational bull market. We are very much still in phase 2 of my 6 phase model, but with phase 3 slowly emerging on the horizon. What are these 6 phases you might think? They can be categorized as follows in a stadium like model:

    Phase 1, constructing the stadium (2016-2020):

    - The early/smart money, the first time we come out of a prolonged bear market. Equities may not have really moved yet, but it is finally starting to look brighter. After the price of uranium bottomed several years ago, it has crept up slowly but surely, but without proper reaction of the underlying equities. Catalysts are building and around the end of this phase (between July and October of last year) is when I first started sharing my due diligence on here. This phase ended at the start of the first big run up we have seen.

    Phase 2, getting on the bus (2020-2021):

    - Once share prices finally move (as we have seen between November and February of this year), it is time for more of the smart money to come in. Those who see that we have finally come out of a bear market and that the busses are slowly being loaded. Price movement will justify the narrative and sharp minds accounting for both retail capital as well as institutional capital will start to position themselves for what is to come. This is the point where we are currently at, waiting for the next move up and for this bus to get going.

    Phase 3, arriving at the stadium:

    - Word is spreading of a new investment opportunity and this will likely be marked by the price per pound of uranium going over the 40 dollar mark. As was mentioned above, price movement justifies the narrative and 40 dollar is the first 'line in the sand' where we will see increased interest from institutional capital wanting to position themselves for this bull market. This phase can be the shortest or the longest of all of the 6 phases depending on a number of key factors that need to be paid close attention to.

    Phase 4, the game begins:

    - This is where the bulk of investors will come in. While we are not early anymore, we are well into this bull market and it still has some legs left. Some people might start taking profits here and leave before the game ends. This can be a smart plan, as scaling out into strength will save you from being hit by phase 6 once it rolls around. In this phase it is clear we are in a full-fledged bull market and it will become more and more regularly discussed by investment communities. Institutional money will be well positioned at this point and will look for a possible exit. I am currently writing an exit strategy on it, based both on history, market psychology and asset valuations. I am not able to share this, as it wouldn't be fair to my platform, so I apologize for that. This phase will likely be the most volatile as a whole.

    Phase 5, the final minutes:

    - As with every highly cyclical bull market, all good things most come to an end. Just like with a game that is all tied a few minutes before the final whistle, emotions are running high and you will see people scrambling to get a glance at the game. This is when general media such as CNBC and investors on social media will be talking about uranium as being "the next big thing". This is a massive red flag. Yes, you might want to watch this game till the end, but it is much better to try and get out before the mass euphoria reaches its peak. When you see that uranium is as broadly discussed as things like digital meme dogs or EV's for example are right now and spot price severely overshooting the long term price, there is no reason to not take out most of your profits and watch this game go into phase 6.

    Phase 6, the game ends (2025):

    - As I said before, all cyclical bull markets must eventually come to an end and this one will be no different. While the timing of this, which I think will be somewhere around 2025, is nothing more than a calculated bet (it could be longer, but also shorter, depending on prevailing market specific but also broad equity market circumstances), fact remains that the final blow off peak we saw in phase 5 in the final minutes of the game will be just as steep to the downside. This will leave a lot of people holding the bag and it will be a rough wake up call, don't be left standing when the doors close and the lights go out.

    Conclusion:

    When a game is exciting, you want to stay till the end to make sure you don't miss anything, this is very understandable as it is human nature to want to get the most out of something. However, the risk associated with trying to time the whistle to the minute is not worth it in my opinion. This doesn't mean you should sell before the bus even arrives at the stadium, but perhaps it is smart to consider scaling out every few minutes and leave only a very small position (or nothing at all of course) to watch the final minutes of this game. Phases and associated timelines can shift very quickly, so make sure you are adaptive, patient and disciplined, because this will be quite the game and no one will know how long it will last. It could be 4 years, but it could also only be 1 or 2. You have to be adaptive and make sure you have the right information and strategy to make the most of this opportunity. Thank you for reading and as always I wish you all a great day.

    submitted by /u/3STmotivation
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    No One Knows When The Market Is At The Top

    Posted: 05 May 2021 12:48 PM PDT

    As the Title Suggests, No One can accurately predict when the market is at the top or when it will crash. If people knew, they certainly wouldn't share on Reddit because they would be earning millions or billions of dollars.

    Timing the market is impossible and it's better to ride out the ups and downs. In many cases, most of your stock gains come from a few days of big gains. Imagine trying to time a stock and in a few days, it goes up 15%. Most of my gains have come from a few strong days.

    One of my favorite quote is: "The Markets Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent".

    Sure the market can be "overvalued" (I am not saying it is), but the market may be like this for the next few years and stocks may keep going up. Just because you were trying to time the market, you missed out on these years of gains.

    Good luck investing!

    submitted by /u/moneytobemade8
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    is Marketwatch "The Moneyist" made up bullshit?

    Posted: 05 May 2021 07:18 AM PDT

    yesterday there was some article about a dude being salty because his wife was not giving him her inheritance, but using it to pay off their 1/2 million dollar mortgage and he's 65 and $80k in credit card debt

    today there's some article about a dude asking if his kid is right to demand his stimulus.

    this is like satire or something, right?

    submitted by /u/HelpWithACA
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    How can people possibly build any sort of passive income from dividend stocks??

    Posted: 04 May 2021 11:32 PM PDT

    I am doing DD on dividend stocks as a new investor. I am a little lost starting out. So, let's take Lowes as an example, a company that has consistently payed dividends for over 50 years.

    Right now their cost per share is 200.30$

    Lowe's Companies pays an annual dividend of $2.40 per share, with a dividend yield of 1.20%. ... Lowe's Companies pays out 41.96% of its earnings out as a dividend.

    This is the information on Lowes yield % per share.

    So at a cost of 200.30$, you're only getting 2.40$ back every 3 months? You would have to own a very significant amount of shares to make this worth while, no?

    How do people make a worth while amount of money through dividend stocks when many of the reliable companies are at a very high price with typically below 2% yield?

    Are they finding not as stable companies with a higher yield? Do they diversify in someway that I would not understand?

    I'm currently researching pros and cons of Dividend stocks, and this is something that has halted me in my tracks a little.

    submitted by /u/Vrozini
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    Most Don't Beat The S&P 500 Index

    Posted: 05 May 2021 01:11 PM PDT

    As many of you know, the S&P 500 Index is a great way to invest as it reduces all your individual stock risk also known as non-systematic risk and we have been lucky to have had some great years of a strong bull market.

    Most professionals don't beat the index and only a select few beat it and the ones who beat it usually don't beat it the following year. Why would you or me be able to beat the market? The answer is we probably won't and we are better off just investing in SPY (S&P 500 ETF).

    We waste time (our most valuable resource) and money to individually pick stocks and in a lot of cases, we don't beat the index and sometimes lose money.

    One of my favorite investors/teachers Aswath Damodaran said something along this "I pick stocks because I love the process of looking at companies and analyzing them and in the end if I lose money or do worse than the index, I am fine with that because I did something I loved".

    I pick stocks because I love the process of trying to find "undervalued" stocks and learning more about industries and hoping to make money, but I also own an S&P 500 index. I am okay if I lose money because I knew the risks beforehand. If you don't like the process of researching or spending time looking at stocks, you are probably better of investing in an index.

    Good luck investing

    submitted by /u/moneytobemade8
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    Excellent time to buy CNI/CNR

    Posted: 05 May 2021 05:09 AM PDT

    Canadian National Railway. (CNI or CNR)

    Just had a huge dip after the KCS offer. Perfect time to get in while the market is down.

    If they dont get the railway, their SP should shoot back up. If they do get it, theyll have the first transcontinental railway going from across Canada down to Mexico.

    Win win in my opinion.

    submitted by /u/sporadicjesus
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    Does Gambler's Fallacy Apply to the Stock Market?

    Posted: 05 May 2021 11:12 AM PDT

    The Gambler's Fallacy is the incorrect belief that the probability of some independent event is affected by previous events. One example would be the belief in streaks in gambling, where the gambler assumes they are more likely to win the next hand because they've lost several in row.

    My question is what evidence do we have to establish an independence between different days (or any time frame) of the stock market? I commonly see people say "only buy on a red day." Assuming different days are independent events, this is an example of the Gambler's Fallacy. However, if a day's performance is dependent on previous days, there could in fact be guidelines to follow for when to buy/sell.

    Is anyone aware of a study of how the probability of a green or red day varies based on the performance of some amount of preceding days (or some other time frame)? I have no doubt this technical analysis exists, I just haven't found the results.

    submitted by /u/qwerty5151
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    Roth IRA Tax Question

    Posted: 05 May 2021 12:38 PM PDT

    Question. I'm thinking of investing in a Global X ETF in my Roth account. Global X is headquartered in NY but is part of a Seoul-based global enterprise. Also, most of the stocks within the ETF are foreign. Does this change the non taxable gains status in the Roth when they are withdrawn since they'd be a result of investments in foreign assets?

    submitted by /u/riverbirch
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    Can I use margin for limit buy orders without paying interest? TD

    Posted: 05 May 2021 07:31 AM PDT

    TD Ameritrade.

    I'm an average joe. I don't do options, period. I accidentally applied for margin through TD Ameritrade because I thought there'd be more to the application process and I was just wanting to look at rates and how much I could be approved for. Turns out it's a one-click thing and they gave me a boat load of margin. I have sense to use it responsibly.

    The ONLY thing I want to use margin for is so that I can keep my cash 100% in the market but be able to "buy dips" and strategize (if you could call it that). And before I get recommendations not to have all of my cash in the market, I don't. I have a healthy emergency fund. It's just not through TD.

    When I place limit buy orders that sit out there for a while, it locks down the cash obviously.

    My question is: if I place a limit buy order with available margin (no cash or tradable funds except margin) do I have to start paying interest on that margin while I've got it locked up? Or only when it fills?

    Thank you in advance.

    submitted by /u/jkchbe
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    BYND Earnings and The Future

    Posted: 05 May 2021 06:20 AM PDT

    Earnings today for $BYND

    I expect them to beat earnings and give better guidance

    Long-Term I really like the stock b/c of the TAM, Growth, and the future of plant-based meats.

    With a $8 billion market cap, I can easily see this 10X within 5-10 years.

    People are starting to eat healthier and I am betting on Ethan Brown a visionary CEO to do this.

    While there may be competition they have partnerships with YUM Brands, McDonalds, PepsiCo, and others. This gives them quite the competitive advantage going forward. They're trying to dominate locally and then expand which is the smartest idea.

    Half of the food Americans eat is takeout and I believe that if we go through some sort of frugal decade people in general wil start to eat more healthier and start to be more conscious of what they eat

    Even if this is not the case, BYND will be in McDonalds and those big branded restaurants so people will have the choice to order from them.

    Think about it like this: How many times have you gone to McDonalds or fast food and thought to yourself " I feel guilty for ordering this Big Mac or this disgusting chicken sandwhich". BYND gives you an alternative so you don't feel so bad lol Tdlr: If shares drop, buy today

    submitted by /u/Rickysmalls1010-
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    Greenbrick Partners (GRBK) just announced their best first quarter ever, down 12.5% Thanks, Mr. Market!

    Posted: 05 May 2021 11:39 AM PDT

    From their press release:

    "We just reported the best first quarter in the history of the Company where net income attributable to Green Brick over the last twelve months through March 31, 2021 grew to $123.7 million, a 100% increase over the prior twelve-month period. Our first quarter net orders of 1,082 homes and ending backlog of $996 million both represent all-time records for the Company, up 28% and 45% over Q4 2020 record levels. To meet the unprecedented demand, Green Brick started a record 2,043 homes in the last six months and ended the quarter with 2,303 units under construction, a 62% increase from a year ago. We feel confident that our efforts will produce heightened earnings beginning next quarter and each successive quarter this year."

    Combine that with record low interest rates, a very low PE ratio, and of course a 12.5% decline makes sense...

    /s

    https://greenbrickpartners.com/green-brick-partners-inc-reports-record-first-quarter-2021-results/

    submitted by /u/lowlyinvestor
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    Results of 30 days of tracking all Reddit Sentiment Data (round 3)

    Posted: 05 May 2021 10:24 AM PDT

    For those that missed the original post, here it is.

    The struggle with the original data is that although it narrowed down the list of potential tickers to buy substantially, there were still often dozens or over 100 that were left, and with those that were left it was hard to determine which ones to buy. Obviously I needed to add in more criteria and start tracking what it did to the list of potential buys. To be nice I'll put the TL;DR up top here, if you're interested in the full details scroll down

    TL;DR

    1. Even though I've preached against pennies forever, it turns out that Pennies with a Reddit score of 250 - 300 and Reddit Score Change value of 0% have the highest probability of going green and highest profitability
      Reddit Score: 250 - 300
      % of going Green vs Red: 500%
      Average % gain: 27%
      Average timeframe to max gain: 9.33 days
    2. Note that if you go to the sheets it will take a while to load. They're big and have a ton of calculations going on. They'll show a lot of data errors until they've loaded up. It usually takes about 1 - 3 minutes. I recommend downloading or copying your own version
    3. Here is an IMGUR link with screen shots of the results of the data for those who can't get access to the sheets once they start blowing up
    4. What stocks should you buy? I don't know, that changes from day to day. Although I track the data daily I only actually pay attention to it when it's time to buy. Then I see which categories are doing best at that moment, filter out the tickers based on that criteria, and go through the list. Sometimes there will be 4 - 10, sometimes none, sometimes 1. Depends on the day. If I don't see anything I like I just wait until the next day.

    Some of the issues with the original data:

    1. The list of potential candidates was always too big, with no indicator of how to narrow it down
      Resolution: I started tracking Change in Reddit Score (how much the conversation shifted on the ticker) and Stock Price
    2. When sharing the data no one could get into the sheet, since Google doesn't like big data and lots of visitors. Here are some ways to get to the data now:
      Resolution 1: Here's a link to the folder itself. May the odds be ever in your favor
      Resolution 2: I made 3 copies of the sheet in hopes of spreading out the odds of getting in
      Copy 1, Copy 2, Copy 3
    3. Resolution 3: I published them to the web for those that can't get into the files themselves
      Link 1, Link 2, Link 3
    4. Resolution 4: Create downloadable Excel copies. These are locked in at 05/05/21 so won't be updated after that, but I left instructions to update it yourself
      Copy 1, Copy 2, Copy 3
    5. Resolution 5: Here is an IMGUR link with screen shots of the results of the data for those who can't get access to the sheets once they start blowing up

    Here are the new items I began tracking with this data:

    1. Reddit Score Change: This signifies the amount of change in conversation on Reddit about that ticker. I wanted to see if an increase or decrease in conversation mattered
    2. Stock Price: This seems obvious, but previously I didn't care what the stock price was - just how much conversation surrounded it. I introduced it in this version so I could see if each pricing category had their own levels of conversation that affected buy-in times. Turns out it does
    3. SPACs: I tracked SPACs with the data and on their own. Turns out they're not that great
    4. % Shorted: Honestly I haven't done a lot with this yet, but I'm starting. The category is there if you want to crunch the numbers to see if there are clear indicators on whether or not stocks shorted at a specific % have a higher likelihood of being squeezed. Let the numbers do the talking, not the echo chambers

    What I continued to track:

    1. Reddit score: How much conversation is happening about that stock. It's all from the Unbias scraper. I chose this one because of the plethora of data and how easy it is to copy/paste it all into a table. I don't own the site but I recommend everyone buy him a cup of coffee
    2. Days to Max Price: How long should you hold? (How many days on average does each category take to get to its highest price?)
    3. Max % Gain: When should you sell? (What average % gain is that category getting?)
    4. % of Y vs N: Did the stock go up (Y) or down (N)? What's the % of time you can expect that category to go up instead of down? The bigger the % between the two the higher your odds of success in that category

    In the end really good data came from it. I had no biases entering into this but I was still surprised to see pennies perform as well as they did. Even without them, there are definitely sweet spots for whatever type of stock you're buying. Just run SPACs, Pennies, and all the rest separately since they each pull the data different directions.

    Good luck! To save my inbox I've tried to answer all the questions I could in previous comments and on the sheets themselves. I'm not selling this, making any money off it in any way, and don't really care if anyone follows the data or not, so this is just a passion project from a data nerd. Do with it what you will.

    I know I should put it online or use Github or something - I don't know how to do all of that. I'm an excel nerd, and that's about it. If you know how and want to do the work I'm more than happy to share all my calculations, data, background stuff, etc - I even left the calculations in the sheets so you can see how they work yourselves if you want them.

    submitted by /u/TheIndulgery
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    No cash equivalent after merger?

    Posted: 05 May 2021 09:58 AM PDT

    I invested in Aphria through Ally investing a few years ago. I only held one share. They recently merged with Tilray and the other day, my stock disappeared. After spending two hours on hold with Ally today, they informed me that Tilray was offering 0.8381 Tilray shares for each Aphria stock, but was not issuing any fractional shares and they had opted not to provide cash equivalent for these shares so I had to accept a total loss.

    Does anyone know the legality of this? Obviously it's not going to make or break me, but it seems a bit screwed up that they can simply opt not to offer cash equivalent for shares.

    submitted by /u/KunSeii
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    Why do you invest in Stocks? Yes of course for money…but why? I am looking for the emotional answers. The real deep down reasons. A great st

    Posted: 05 May 2021 11:08 AM PDT

    Why do you invest in Stocks? Yes of course for money…but why? I am looking for the emotional answers. The real deep down reasons. A great story!

    The question seems to have obvious answers, like "to grow my money!" or "to be wealthy!" If we could avoid those answers just for this topic.

    But I am looking for the emotional why, the real reason why people want to invest or grow their money. During these times it seems like there is always another hidden layer…

    • Do you invest to protect your future, so you can retire comfortably?
    • Do you want to make sure you have the money to pay for your child's education?
    • Do you want to prepare for possible sickness and hospital bills when you are old?
    • Do you want to travel, see the world, enjoy luxuries?
    • Do you just want to escape the rat race and have the option to do what you want to do?

    My emotional why, is to give my family a better future. To be able to afford a home where we can grow together and of course stop having to pay rent.

    What is your emotional why? I would love to hear from all of you. Feel free to DM me if you do not want to answer publicly.

    submitted by /u/true_ink
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    The real rotation is from feel-good stocks to feel-bad stocks

    Posted: 04 May 2021 02:50 PM PDT

    I cringe every time I read that we're in a rotation "from growth to cyclical" or "from lockdown to reopening" stocks. Those narratives would suggest that restaurants, hotels, airlines, and auto manufacturers are all flying high right now. The problem is, none of it is true.

    Since February…

    • Tripadvisor, Expedia, and Booking are flat
    • Marriott, Hilton, and Hyatt are flat
    • Ford, GM, and Toyota are flat
    • Restaurants are mixed
    • Airlines are down

    The real rotation isn't toward any of that. If you put conventional labels aside, this is really a rotation from feel-good stocks to feel-bad stocks. Since February, anything young people actually want to invest in has been annihilated: technology, e-commerce, semiconductors, renewable energy, cannabis, disruptive tech, EVs, and so on. Even if you exclude all the speculation and only include profitable, well-established companies, this is still very much the case.

    What has done well? Energy, financials, materials, and industrials. In other words, dirty money. Gas and oil = drivers of climate change, financials = sharky capitalism, industrials and materials = environmental degradation and warfare. It's almost like the more nefarious the business model is, the better! (Lockheed is up 16% since March 1. Northrop is up over 25%. Feels bad.)

    Now, I know what some of you are thinking – some version of "the stock market isn't the place to change the world." I'm just making an observation. It's kind of a "if you can't beat 'em, do you join 'em?" moment. Will this rotation be a short-term blip or a long drawn out shift away from feel-good investing?

    submitted by /u/MinnesotaPower
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    Option trading

    Posted: 05 May 2021 07:46 AM PDT

    So I was looking at starting up with options, and I am a little confused. I've used a couple of sources but I'm loving Sky View Trading's explanation the most.

    So what I understand, call option is a contract with the right but not obligation to buy at an agreed price on an agreed time. Put us the sell version of that.

    I liked one guys explanation of options being insurance to your stocks. What I don't understand is who is the one that gets to choose to go through with it. From my readings (mainly focused on puts for stock holder and call for option trader) it seemed like both had that option and that doesn't seem correct.

    Last question, I thought I read somewhere you can put a put on stock you don't own. How does that work?

    submitted by /u/TheMakerOfMyths
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    $AUPH ER tomorrow- Do these even matter anymore?

    Posted: 05 May 2021 11:17 AM PDT

    https://ir.auriniapharma.com/press-releases/detail/218/aurinia-pharmaceuticals-to-release-first-quarter-2021

    It seems that recently the ER's (even if GREAT news) don't really move the needle anymore. Is this new or has it been like this for a while?

    submitted by /u/arcdux
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