Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - May 07, 2021 Investing |
- Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - May 07, 2021
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- I sold every share I own today.
- The Roaring 2020s (Economy/Stocks)
- In just 3 months, Tesla has issued 80% of the shares ARK's valuation model projected they would issue through 2025.
- Fastly drops 27% after release of Q1-21 results - Price roller coaster
- Cloudflare ($NET) Q1 Revenues Top Estimates. Stock Gets Back 7% AA.
- Square Q1: EPS beats by $0.25, beats on revenue
- According to Morningstar, only 42% of the top 5,000 US stocks finished positive in the previous decade (plus what I've learned over my 12+ years investing)
- Possible overvalued stocks in S&P 500
- Peloton Interactive Q3: EPS beats by $0.10, beats on revenue
- Dropbox ($DBX) Earnings Q1 2021
- What Are Your PPE Manufacturer Plays?
- Microchip shortage and the economy
- Long term expectations of Berkshire growth
- Fastly Reports Disappointing 1Q Results, Light Outlook, CFO Exit; Shares Fall 17.5%
- Good time to buy Nintendo?
- How to value growth companies and where to find this data?
- Bed and Breakfasting and why someone would use it?
- Time to buy PTON… or wait?
- Ant Looks to Revamp Controversial Business Without Sparking an Outcry
- Valuing a startup: Can someone suggest a case study to model against?
- Investing in Physical Silver
| Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - May 07, 2021 Posted: 07 May 2021 02:01 AM PDT Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! This thread is for:
Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google. If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions. Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 07 May 2021 02:00 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| I sold every share I own today. Posted: 06 May 2021 11:04 AM PDT I got into the market last year post Covid around May or June. Since then it has been an absolute rollercoaster trying to pick stocks. I was up 100% on multiple stocks including Tesla, Carvana, Square, Fiverr. I didn't sell because you're supposed to hold for the long term I heard, only for those stocks and others over many months to drop 30% - 80% or more. I bought some new stocks in February only for them to then drop 30% or more in a matter of months. I have spent months this year and last inside on beautiful days going cross eyed staring at charts trying to figure out what stock to buy, what to sell, why this stock is going up, why this stock is going down. As we speak I'm sitting inside on a beautiful day writing this. I have admitted to myself I don't understand stocks. I don't understand businesses. I have reached a point where I stopped caring about losing money. That's a dangerous road I'm sure. With the amount of stocks I've bought and sold, I don't know if I'm up or down. Evidence I don't understand stocks is that today Twitter is worth less than it was in 2013 when it IPO'd. One of the most popular social media apps in the entire world I would have assumed would be worth something. Apparently not. It may seem I'm impatient or have a short term horizon for the market, but if I bought Twitter in 2013, I would have wasted 8 years of my life holding it. PLTR backed by Peter Thiel and signing multi-million dollar contracts week after week, well the bottom just fell out. While it will probably go back up, I don't understand when and why it would. If a company with that much growth potential can't go up, what chance does anything else have. 10 months ago I bought DKNG at $25 and sold a few months later for about $50. Today it's worth a little more than was 10 months ago. I'm glad I got out when I did. So, I am buying the S&P. It's the boring thing to do, but I will be able to sleep at night and not spend everyday inside staring at a screen. I should have done it much sooner. Rant over. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| The Roaring 2020s (Economy/Stocks) Posted: 06 May 2021 04:49 PM PDT So. Unlike a lot of naysayers who think taxes, inflation, or certain political parties will derail this train, I don't agree.
Conclusion. Get in losers, were doing the roaring 2020s. And they are mad that the poors have a better chance of capturing income in this decade. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Posted: 06 May 2021 12:52 PM PDT Their model is beyond amateurish. Tesla share count at the end of Q1 was 963.3M, up from 960M at the end of Q4. This is just 700K away from ARK's 964M 2025 projected share count. Those are only the outstanding shares. They missed Tesla's diluted share count by over 100M in their newest model. And before anyone mentions possible buybacks, their model already includes a $300 billion cash pile in 2025 to pad their EV/EBITDA PT. No room for buybacks in their modeled capital allocation. That's just what's provably wrong with the model. Will Tesla create a human ride hail service with 3x more revenue than Uber in less than 5 years? Will Tesla become the most profitable insurance company in the US in under 5 years? Will Tesla sell sedans and crossovers at the same gross margins of Ferrari? I can't say, but these are all standard assumptions made in ARK's "bear case" -- An odd context for the term. I wouldn't be so crass if they actually learned from their mistakes, but they don't. Their year end 2019 model projected Tesla would issue 30 million more shares through 2024; 900M to 930M split adjusted. They issued 55M in 2020 alone. 34M were attributable to capital raises. Maybe that would be a good time to step back and check what the diluted share count would be in the event Tesla hit their PT? I could almost forgive a hobby investor missing the dilutive effect of, at the time, anti-dilutive convertibles and stock options. Not a firm like ARK, but a hobbyist. They brazenly miss their share count estimate, take no further look as to why they missed, and, by some miracle, totally miss the dilutive share count & effects plastered all over Tesla's filings since Q1 2020. To be blunt, these guys are either dumb or deceitful. To those who invest in ARK funds, this is the level of DD you get. Caveat emptor. Sources for the lazy: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001318605/000156459021004599/tsla-10k_20201231.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001318605/000156459020004475/tsla-10k_20191231.htm https://github.com/ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Fastly drops 27% after release of Q1-21 results - Price roller coaster Posted: 07 May 2021 02:30 AM PDT Fastly released its Q1-21 performance on Thursday, after which the stock price dropped a whopping 27%. The company generated revenues of $84.9 million (35% YoY) vs. $85.1 million market consensus. Net loss per share was $0.12 vs. an expected $0.11. These are not big misses but make the company one of the few high-growth cloud players that underperformed market expectations. However, the company also lowered its guidance for Q2: Fastly forecasts revenues of $84 - $87 million and a net loss of $0.16 - $0.19 per share, compared to the market consensus of $92 million in revenue and a net loss of $0.08 per share, thereby disappointing investors. Lastly, Adriel Lares will step down as CFO of the company after 5 years. The company is now trading at a PPS of $42, compared to its high of $119 only 3 months ago, representing a TEV / NTM revenue multiple of 11.9x. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Cloudflare ($NET) Q1 Revenues Top Estimates. Stock Gets Back 7% AA. Posted: 06 May 2021 03:00 PM PDT After Fastly reported disappointing numbers this morning and $NET followed it down (see here: https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/n65ljk/fastly_reports_disappointing_1q_results_light/), $NET responded strongly. Cloudflare earnings and revenue for the March quarter topped analyst estimates while revenue guidance came in above Wall Street targets. Cloudflare stock rose in extended trading, clawing back from a big loss in Thursday's regular session as software growth stocks retreated. San Francisco-based Cloudflare (NET) reported a first-quarter loss of 3 cents per adjusted share vs. a 4-cent loss in the year-earlier period. Revenue jumped 51% to $138.1 million, said the provider of cloud-based networking and cybersecurity services. Analysts expected Cloudflare to report a loss of 3 cents per share. Estimates called for revenue of $131 million for the period ended March 31. Cloudflare stock rose 6.2% to 73.37 in extended trading on the stock market today. In Thursday's regular session, Cloudflare stock plunged 12.6%. https://finance.yahoo.com/m/f98c4fa4-1595-3c88-a10c-c6442c91ffb8/cloudflare-stock-claws-back.html Very interesting to see Cloudflare move in opposite direction of Fastly. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Square Q1: EPS beats by $0.25, beats on revenue Posted: 06 May 2021 01:48 PM PDT Square (NYSE:SQ): • Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 beats by $0.25; GAAP EPS of $0.08 beats by $0.14. • Revenue of $5.06B (+266.7% Y/Y) beats by $1.73B. • In the first quarter of 2021, mid-market Seller GPV increased 43% year over year, more than 2x the growth of total Seller GPV. Extra info: • Square says Seller showed strong Y/Y gross profit growth in April with Seller gross payment volume up 144% Y/Y. • The two-year compound annual growth rate for Seller GPV in April was 21%, relatively consistent with March. • Cash App also showed strong Y/Y gross profit growth last month, but "as we lapped the government fund disbursements in mid-April of 2020, gross profit growth slowed Y/Y," the company said. • Q1 adjusted EPS of 41 cent vs. average analyst estimate of 16 cents; compares with 2 cents in the year-ago quarter. • Q1 total revenue of $5.06B vs. $3.33B consensus and $538.5M in the year-ago quarter. Excluding bitcoin, total net revenue was $1.55B, up 44% Y/Y. • Cash App ecosystem gross profit of $495M, up 171%; Cash App revenue of $4.04B increased 66% Y/Y; excluding bitcoin, Cash App revenue was $529M, up 139% Y/Y. • Cash App Business GPV was $3.4B, up 227% Y/Y. Bitcoin revenue of $3.51B surged vs. $1.76B in Q4 2020; bitcoin gross profit of $75M vs. $41M in Q4. • Q4 Seller gross profit increased 19% Y/Y to $468M. Seller gross payment volume of $29.8B vs. $32.0B in Q4 and $24.7B a year ago. • For Q2 2020, the company expects non-GAAP product development, sales and marketing, and general and administrative expenses, in aggregate, to increase by ~$120M compared with Q1 2021, on a dollar basis. • For the full year 2021, Square sees non-GAAP product development, sales and marketing, and general and administrative expenses to increase by ~$2.0B-$1.1B vs. the full year of 2020, representing growth of 50% Y/Y at the midpoint. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Posted: 06 May 2021 04:17 PM PDT Source: How Many Stocks Beat the Indexes? Recent posts about people losing their initial investments over the past 6-12 months made me think of this article that I heard the guys on the recent Animal Spirits podcast discuss. Over the past 10 years, 42% of the top 5,000 US stocks finished in the black, 36% finished in the red, and 22% are gone. Of that 22%, Morningstar does acknowledge they didn't check to see if a company went bankrupt or was acquired at a premium/loss but they did note, "Bessembinder's research suggests that half the expired stocks were acquired, with decent results, while the other half were delisted, with dire consequences." Basically what this research shows is stock picking isn't easy and probably shouldn't be done by most people, if any. There's a reason mutual funds and active money managers have been shown to trail benchmarks over short- and long-term timeframes. This IBD article from March shows only 25% of MFs beat their benchmark over varying timeframes. This 2019 article from CNBC shows nearly 65% of active fund managers trailed the S&P 500 for the 9th consecutive year. If people who devote their literal careers can't do it, most retail investors probably can't either. It's just as much luck as it is skill. Note: if you don't give a shit about what my opinions are, do as my wife does and stop paying attention to me now. I only planned to post the above and then I just started jotting down thoughts that turned into more thoughts and the below was born. If you want to pick stocks, probably the only hope you have is having a very long-term horizon and being diversified, but not diworsified. If you just want exposure to every industry for diversification purposes, just buy an ETF that tracks everything all sectors. Irony time: Save for my wife's retirement and our savings for future kid(s) (both of which I manage and both of which are in QQQ, SPY, and/or VOO), I pick stocks and although I have overall exceeded my chosen benchmarks (SPY and QQQ) over the past 9 years, I have no expectation that will last, which is why I benchmark. I For me, I actually match the Morningstar numbers pretty well. Closed Positions
Open Positions
Quick tangent. Open positions are doing worse right now because I continue to buy. I don't care about the isolated market choppiness currently going on (some of which I'm invested in) and I'm not sitting on a mound of cash waiting for a massive dip. I buy when I have cash ready and a company I want shares of. People seem to think entry point matters but it doesn't with a long-term view. Sure, $45/sh is better than $50 but what if it goes to $60 before that 10% drop you were waiting for. Now you have to buy at a higher price or live with the feeling you missed the boat (spoiler: you didn't; just fucking buy). Sure, some stocks will pull back to your entry point but if the thesis is good and remains in place, just buy when you can and add more when you can. So if the majority of my positions are trailing at least one benchmark, how am I beating SPY and QQQ overall? To keep the theme going, having a long-term approach is why. I wasn't beating the benchmarks right away. In fact, it took 3 years before I was intermittently ahead of them and another 3 years before I was consistently beating them every month. Six years may seem like a long time to allot myself but, at the time, my planned retirement was 40 years away. I had a long runway to work with so I knew my risk profile could be high and I could continue to learn as I went along. I bought companies I believed would win over 10+ years and then I let my winners win. This is a divisive take but I rarely take gains on my winners. I don't need the cash now; this money was earmarked for decades down the road so I let it be invested. I even let some of my losers lose (looking at you Ford). I do everything I can to not micromanage my holdings. I monitor the news and quarterly filings but unless there's been a fundamental change in the business that renders my initial investment thesis moot, I hold. By letting my winners win, I allowed the SHOP's and the SIVB's and the AMZN's and the SMG's to make up in gains far more than my losers lost. Currently, my three largest gaining positions have increased in value more than all my losing positions (open and closed) combined. And those 3 largest gaining positions are all still open. I have never in the 5+ years I've been invested sold a single share in any of them and I see no reason to even consider doing so. It's cliched to say but the max you can lose on a stock purchase is 100% while the max you can gain is infinite. Don't overreact. Follow your thesis. I bought AMZN in June 2014 for $327.39 and it then traded basically flat for 7 months. Imagine having had sold that for a miniscule gain because I didn't see an immediate 35% return? All this being said, I absolutely understand why people would choose passive ETF investing. I enjoy reading about companies and perusing SEC filings. I view my investing as a hobby in addition to wealth building. Not everyone does. They may see the benefit of investing while viewing company research as work. Others may want to try to get rich quick. I would never recommend the latter but to each their own. I didn't hit it big on GME or AMC or become a Dogecoin millionaire but I also didn't FOMO buy only to lose 50% of my investment within a week and then panic sell. I'm not yucking anyone's yum. I just know the lane I'm comfortable in. Know your risk profile and how much you can lose without making your life uncomfortable, because any investment can drop 20% a day after you buy it and any investment can go to zero. You can't invest and also be undisciplined or prone to FOMO. You will almost always lose out. I didn't mean for this post to turn into a soapbox speech but if it came off that way, my apologies. Just trying to convey some interesting research I heard/read with some lessons I have learned. Happy investing! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Possible overvalued stocks in S&P 500 Posted: 06 May 2021 10:45 PM PDT Hi, I was thinking to invest in the S&P500 index instead of cherry-picking stocks (through Ireland ETF). The reasons are that my country doesn't have a tax treaty with US and to lower the risk of individual stocks. But by looking into S&P index constituents there are many stocks that looks overvalued to me (based on PE ratio, I will assume that 25PE is a reasonable PE for value stocks for a time to come): - AMZN PE 62.25 - its earnings would have to increase 250% to reach PE 25. Through which business segment? Internet sales - with covid over, people would spend more time in brick and mortar shops, expansion possibilities in new countries is very limited as there are local players. Prime Video? Look at Netflix - new users do not add so quickly, I'm expecting this segment to have a low earnings increase. AWS - there are more competitors and many business are not so fond of paying to Amazon much more than what they are currently paying, I'm estimating possible growth of 10% Y2Y in the next 5 years. - TSLA - while it has a strong brand the valuation that is higher than VW and Toyota combined is questionable. The graveyard is full of people who shorted TSLA although - V (Visa Inc) - PE 54.81 - debit card payments are now the norm even in third-world countries outside of the world. To reach 100% growth in earnings I think you'll have to wait long. - Mastercard - see Visa Inc - NVIDIA PE 83.98 - when crypto mania is over, graphic cards would not be such a great business, compare this to Samsung's PE 21.35, Nintendo's PE 16.41 or TSMC 28.68 - Adobe PE 42.26 - Adobe to grow more than Microsoft? Good luck with that. This is a business software company, compare that with SAP PE 25.27. There are some labor requirements that give Adobe an advantage so my guess is that 35 PE would be reasonable Obviously, I'm assuming some things wrong, but did I underestimate all these companies? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Peloton Interactive Q3: EPS beats by $0.10, beats on revenue Posted: 06 May 2021 01:39 PM PDT Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ:PTON): • Q3 GAAP EPS of -$0.03 beats by $0.10. • Revenue of $1.26B (+140.2% Y/Y) beats by $140M. • Q3 ending Connected Fitness Subscriptions grew 135% to over 2.08 million and paid Digital Subscriptions grew 404% to approximately 891,000; total Members grew to over 5.4 million. Q3 Connected Fitness Subscription Workouts grew 239% to over 149.5 million, averaging 26.0 Monthly Workouts per Connected Fitness Subscription, versus 17.7 in the year-ago period • Q3 Average Net Monthly Connected Fitness Churn was 0.31%; Q3 12-month retention rate was 92%. Extra info: • The company said it generated record quarterly revenue of $1.26B and a 5x increase in paid digital subscriptions, but the meaning of those results is far from clear after announcing yesterday that it had stopped sales and recalled its Tread and Tread+ treadmills. • The company did not offer a full-year forecast with its results, but would provide revised guidance on the earnings conference call later today. • For the quarter, connected fitness subscriptions and paid digital subscriptions jumped to $1.02B and 891K, both exceeding analyst consensus estimates. • Peloton said delivery times for its original exercise bike have returned to pre-COVID-19 levels, but "While progress has been made, additional work remains to reduce delivery times across the remainder of our product portfolio and regions." Update: • While noting that a recall of its treadmills would knock $165M off FQ4 revenues, CFO Jill Woodworth forecast quarterly sales of $915M and an annual total of $4B, not far off previous annual guidance for $4.08B in sales.
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| Dropbox ($DBX) Earnings Q1 2021 Posted: 06 May 2021 03:19 PM PDT https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dropbox-dbx-q1-earnings-revenues-223510075.html Dropbox (DBX) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.35 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.30 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.17 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times. Dropbox, which belongs to the Internet - Services industry, posted revenues of $511.6 million for the quarter ended March 2021, surpassing the Consensus Estimate by 1.31%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $455 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters. Dropbox shares have added about 12% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 11%. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| What Are Your PPE Manufacturer Plays? Posted: 06 May 2021 07:06 AM PDT Tech earnings are receiving all the hype recently, and if you guys are like me, you're looking for stocks to get into at low prices, and ride out the growth (we're all aiming for the next TSLA). While tech like TSLA is always in the news, I'm starting to think more about COVID stocks and those who provide COVID related supplies, because let's face it, Coronavirus is not over and spikes in India, Brazil, and even the EU are unfortunate examples that immediate medical response and prevention measures are still needed. Some may look at PPE as a summer 2020 trend but that is far from true and PPE stocks will continue to perform well. One that I came across recently is Optec International (OTC:OPTI), a manufacturing company of LED and PPE product. OPTI announced really impressive financials this week, 4391% YOY Q3 growth and revenue at $11 million. OPTI's been making a slew of acquisitions, but one that I'm interested in is a company called WeShield. They have audited revenues of $55 million in 2020 and projected revenues of over $100 million for 2021. The company says this growth is due to proprietary AI tech. Either way, OPTI is an example of an affordable PPE stock that I have on my radar, today they're trading at around $0.09 a share. Other suppliers to keep in mind from an investing standpoint are 3M (MMM), DuPont (DD), and Owens & Minor (OMI) - these are top PPE manufacturers and suppliers. 3M is being traded at just under $200, with DuPont at $79 and Owens at $35. These companies are established healthcare suppliers with Owens & Minor, for example, being established in 1882. And like I was saying above, the demand for PPE IS NOT going anywhere. In April, Plastic News published an article citing Owens' performance and stated that the pandemic will continue to boost the medical supply market as health systems expand their PPE supply. I genuinely think that PPE is going overlooked and that there are exciting new companies that will emerge in the medical supplier space. Interested in hearing other PPE plays or your guys take. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Microchip shortage and the economy Posted: 06 May 2021 03:10 PM PDT What are your thoughts on the market and investing when the next 2 or more years looks like it's going to be bad? This article talks about the chip shortage which everyone has heard about by now. It says the chip shortage is going to affect everything, not just the new gaming consoles, but phones, automotive, your kitchen appliances, to even farming. It will take at least 2 years for companies to build new manufacturing plants, and while they believe everything should catch up to speed in 2 years, I'm thinking 3 years would be more likely. So what are your thoughts on investing during this time. I think everyone should expect a lot of losses during this time, but when supply finally meets demand, most of those losses should be wiped out and things will rebound from there. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Long term expectations of Berkshire growth Posted: 06 May 2021 08:14 AM PDT I have been thinking about his comments on the succession that were made public last week. His comments on leaving money to his wife in the SP500 instead of Berkshire seem interesting to me. I imagine most of his money is currently in Berkshire. He nearly always says that he thinks Berkshire is amazing and that index funds are great for most people. If he believed in Berkshire's future once he and Charlie are no longer at the helm, wouldn't it make more sense to leave her the money within Berkshire? Based on this, does it make sense to invest in Berkshire for the long term based on his comments versus an index fund? Edit: fixed some grammar and framing to be more clear [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Fastly Reports Disappointing 1Q Results, Light Outlook, CFO Exit; Shares Fall 17.5% Posted: 06 May 2021 04:59 AM PDT "Shares of Fastly Inc. (FSLY) tanked 17.5% in extended trading on Wednesday after reporting losses that widened in the first quarter. Furthermore, 2Q and FY21 financial outlook disappointed analysts, and the company's Chief Financial Officer (CFO) exited the company. The cloud-based content delivery network (CDN) company reported a non-GAAP diluted net loss per share of $0.12 versus a diluted net loss of $0.06 per share in the same quarter last year. Analysts were expecting a loss of $0.11 per share. The company posted revenues of around $85 million, a rise of 35% year-on-year that came in ahead of consensus estimates of $84.3 million. FSLY also provided a disappointing financial outlook for 2Q and FY21. The company expects second-quarter revenues to land between $84 million to $87 million and a non-GAAP net loss to range between $0.16 to $0.19 per share. Analysts were expecting losses to narrow to $0.09 per share on revenues of $90.8 million in 2Q." https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fastly-reports-disappointing-1q-results-092401690.html https://www.barrons.com/articles/fedex-and-ups-shares-surge-on-rating-upgrades-51620054392 [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Posted: 06 May 2021 08:46 PM PDT I have an inkling NTDOY will start making gains following E3 and into the next few years, and that now would be a good time to buy. My thinking is that, in the next 1-3 years, they announce Switch "Pro" and more info about big software (BotW2), not to mention the Mario movie + Universal + just branding altogether. Nintendo rarely ventures beyond pure video games but if they do it well, and given the success of the Switch I have confidence, it could have a nice payoff. Any reason to dispute my theory? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| How to value growth companies and where to find this data? Posted: 06 May 2021 11:12 AM PDT I bought $LMND in the peak and last few months the stock plummeted. In retrospect, I realize that I bought the stock at a very high valuation which assumed perfect growth in the future free cashflow and profitability.
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| Bed and Breakfasting and why someone would use it? Posted: 06 May 2021 12:18 PM PDT I'm currently studying Tax and Chargeable gains on shares and the matching rule, I've heard of Bed & Breakfasting but I don't understand how it applies to a real-life scenario. I'd imagine that someone could hypothetically sell their shares for £12,300 (that have dropped in value) on 5th April and buy them back cheaper on the 6th, however, this could be risky as the price could shoot back up before they get their order in. I've seen that they could recognise a loss and I know there are rules in place now to prevent this practice but is it really worth the hassle? I would just like a basic example of it to wrap my head around it is all. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Posted: 06 May 2021 10:40 AM PDT PTON is up slightly today, but Relative Strength is very low at 27, and it's at the bottom of the Bollinger Band (usually a good time to buy on both counts). That said, is it too soon to jump back in? My gut feeling is that the stock was priced for perfection, and is suffering during the rotation toward reopening plays. All the bad news will become old news at some point, and as the news cycle moves on, this could be a great trade, or a great investment. Is the bad news priced in already, or is this still trying to catch a falling knife? Is it oversold, or is this a dead cat bounce. I'd love to get thoughts from smarter people who understand the ins and outs of technical analysis. My instinct is to wait a bit… [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Ant Looks to Revamp Controversial Business Without Sparking an Outcry Posted: 06 May 2021 04:40 AM PDT "Company needs to turn its 'mutual-aid' service, a type of crowdfunded medical coverage with nearly 91 million members, into a regulated business" SUMMARY: In short, Ant is exploring ways to allow its Xianghubao service, a form a crowd funded medical insurance that translates to "mutual aid" or "mutual treasure", to be regulated without shutting it down, as there are fears that this could lead to social or political unrest, particularly from the ordinary citizens who rely on the service and have already contributed towards others' payouts, which have totaled over $2.5 billion in payments to nearly 117k individual members. These concerns are being exacerbated by the fact that Xianghubao has been steadily losing customers since the Chinese government scuttled Ant's IPO in November, raising worries that current members will be unable to receive money for claims or will have to pay substantially heftier premiums for continued coverage. For the last few years Xianghubao has been operating in the regulatory gray area of "mutual aid" products, which it did to avoid the regulatory requirements that come with being labeled as an insurance product. However, over the last year China's insurance regulator has been increasingly critical of mutual aid services, and several other large players have exited the area entirely. All of this is occurring under the backdrop of Chinese insurance companies working with local governments over the last year to expand or complement China's existing public health insurance system with their own affordable health insurance options; and with Ant applying to become a financial holding company under the purview of China's central bank. Full text here: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ant-looks-to-revamp-a-controversial-business-without-sparking-an-outcry-11620293404 [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Valuing a startup: Can someone suggest a case study to model against? Posted: 06 May 2021 09:47 AM PDT I'm looking at a stock that is in its early stages. There is small revenue, but it just begun growing. The question how to measure potential revenue in the next 5 years, and try to estimate reasonable growth expectations, so I can come up with reasonable valuation. Was wandering if anyone came across a case study, or earnings projection report that is well written and has proven accurate that I can model against? -I believe a report like that should cover some way to measure demand. Which maybe part of the market and if that market is growing. - Growth prospect and how to estimate it. - A best method at coming up with a price target given the above estimates. Should it be a range. What conditions should be attached to the price? - Execution - given that the arrived price target is obviously a rough estimate at best, best approach to use it. That is purchasing all at once, or add to the position as the company proves itself, i.e. if there was any know how as to what strategy works as opposed to what makes sense. Thanks in advance. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||
| Posted: 06 May 2021 07:41 PM PDT Given the rise in food commodity prices by nearly 60% and the rise in general commodity prices by nearly 90% since summer 2020, I've thinking it may be wise to shift a portion of my portfolio in a direction that protects against inflation. Physical silver jumps out to me as the most obvious choice given its longstanding use in wealth preservation. I am considering purchasing PSLV as a means to "hold" physical silver without actually possessing physical silver - it seems to track with the value of physical silver as opposed to SLV, and it has actual physical silver backing it. I'd love to hear your thoughts on this strategy and the optimal means of purchasing physical silver, gold, or other inflation-resistant metals. [link] [comments]  |
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