Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - May 06, 2021 Investing |
- Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - May 06, 2021
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- Uber investors finally see the costs of treating drivers as employees, and the stock is falling. Uber sets aside $600 million for U.K. drivers as a result of court finding
- Peloton (PTON) Recalls Its Tread and Tread+ Treadmills After They Were Linked to Serious Safety Hazards
- Am I missing something or is F massively undervalued?
- Teladoc Stock is Down Another 8% This Week. Don’t Just Blame Poor Earnings.
- (AMS:DGB) makes acquisition
- Results of 30 days of tracking all Reddit Sentiment Data (round 3)
- Why doesn't the market like these results ?
- Vista Outdoor ($VSTO) pre-earnings DD
- What are your selling principles for crypto?
- [5/06] Best-Performing China Concept Stocks
- Mutual funds VS Index/ETF's
- Value of ishares Global Property securities Index Fund
- Buying the top S&P500 holdings individually and rebalancing every quarter?
- Xilinx's Q4 Record revenue of $851 million in the quarter; fiscal 2021 revenue of $3.15 billion
- Worried about biden waiving vaccine patents
- Why should I change from Robinhood?
- Limiting turnover in levered portfolios
- Investing in rappers music. I wouldn’t be here if I didn’t think the individual was talented.
| Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - May 06, 2021 Posted: 06 May 2021 02:01 AM PDT Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! This thread is for:
Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google. If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions. Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed. [link] [comments]  |
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 06 May 2021 02:00 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 05 May 2021 09:22 PM PDT Uber Technologies Inc. has spent and fought to keep its drivers from becoming classified as employees instead of contractors, and investors finally got a glimpse of the financial reasons on Wednesday. Uber UBER, -3.42% broke out $600 million from its total revenue of $3.5 billion to account "for the resolution of historical claims in the U.K. relating to the classification of drivers" in its first-quarter earnings results. That is a direct result of a U.K. Supreme Court ruling in March that led Uber to classify tens of thousands of drivers in the U.K. as employees. Uber disclosed in March that it could have to pay claims of back pay due from British drivers in the case, including holiday pay, wages to equal the minimum and, potentially, pension contributions. That would be on top of what the company already paid the drivers in the 2016 case. That puts a dollar figure on a longstanding concern about Uber and the other "gig work" companies — what it would look like financially if they had to treat drivers as employees. And it is nothing to sneeze at, blowing away the $200 million Uber and other gig companies spent to pass a new law in California in their quest for a "third way" for employment law. That win could be moot, though, as President Joe Biden's new secretary of the Labor Department said last week drivers should receive the benefits of employment in most cases, spooking some investors. For more: Here is how the Biden administration could change gig work Uber shares initially went higher in after-hours trading Wednesday, after the company papered over the "accrual" and continuing losses with the $1.6 billion sale of its self-driving unit, but fell back to a 4.8% decline in the extended session as executives discussed increasing costs for drivers and faced an immediate question about Labor Secretary Marty Walsh's comments. "When we look at the makeup of the current administration, it's fair to say that there are individuals who have varying views on these issues. They're not all identical in their outlook. And we think that creates space for some meaningful dialogue," said Uber Chief Legal Officer Tony West, who worked in the Justice Department under President Barack Obama. The company's standard mantra when asked about the possible costs of classifying its drivers as employees has been to say that they will pass on the costs to its users, which executives said again during Wednesday's call. They noted that they did see a slight increase in costs in the quarter, because of driver benefits, and they were able to pass those costs on to riders, with no impact on demand. See also: Uber and Lyft are public, so the cheap rides are coming to an end "We are leaning in, with investments to support the recovery mobility and growth initiatives and delivery," said Uber Chief Financial Officer Nelson Chai, noting that the ride-hailing company plans to invest in its driver base, and increase its spending in general, marketing and administrative costs, and in R&D. Chai estimated Uber will spend between $450 million and $480 million in the second quarter, after a drop in spending last quarter. Also included will be spending on marketing to attract new drivers, as it faces driver shortages in the U.S. and Mexico. At the same time, Chai noted that the company continues to face "significant forecasting uncertainty and predicting posts reopening consumer behavior." Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives said that investors were not happy with the higher spending, and pointed to the U.K. charge/accrual as highlighting the hot-button issue of possible further regulation over the classification of its drivers. "Higher level of investments near term, coupled with some uncertainty around the forecast," were affecting the shares in after-hours trading, Ives said in an email. "It was a robust print, but after the Biden move against gig players, the Street is very nervous around Uber and Lyft, with selling post-quarter a theme commonplace during tech earnings season." Even so, investors now have an idea of how much drivers being classified as employees could cost the company. As the debate over gig workers continues, investors will likely remain jittery about the issue. The nagging question above all is, will companies like Uber and Lyft Inc. LYFT, -6.34% ever be profitable, with their contractor business models again at risk, and prone to big, unexpected costs? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 05 May 2021 09:19 AM PDT
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| Am I missing something or is F massively undervalued? Posted: 05 May 2021 08:41 PM PDT Hi r/investing, I've been doing quite a bit of reading on value investing lately. My usual investment strategy is passive index investing (focusing on VWRA), plus a few growth stock picks (SE, SQ, TSLA). Generally, I'm a buy-and-hold investor. Something about value investing spoke to me. Perhaps it's the fundamental analysis or the patience behind it. I started looking for companies with low PE and PEG ratios, coupled with high forecasted EPS increases. F jumped out immediately. I see that their revenue and earnings have declined in recent years, but with the EV revolution in full swing, is this a good pick? Why I believe it's undervalued (fundamental analysis data taken from Finviz):
Since I am new to value investing, am I missing something here? Or, is this a good pick to buy-and-hold? [link] [comments]  |
| Teladoc Stock is Down Another 8% This Week. Don’t Just Blame Poor Earnings. Posted: 05 May 2021 05:36 PM PDT "The stock has been under pressure for the past few months since the firm signaled that it expects little membership growth in 2021. A lack of growth is bad for any company, but is particularly tough for those like Teladoc that are losing money, whose share prices are pegged to their growth potential. Last Wednesday, the company reported a first-quarter net loss of $1.31 a share, much worse than the 54 cents Wall Street expected. That news triggered more declines in the stock; it is now down 46% from its February peak. But the latest selloff isn't just the aftermath of the poor earnings. This week, concern mounted over whether Teladoc can retain its customers in an increasingly competitive space. In a Wall Street Journal article published on Monday, PepsiCo 's former head of benefits Erik Sossa said that the firm stopped using Teladoc and switched to rival LiveHealth Online, partially because the digital-health service isn't connected to PepsiCo's existing health plan, making it impossible for doctors to see patients' health histories. 'Telemedicine is a fantastic medium, but if it's just late-night urgent care, it's kind of a commodity,' Sossa told the Journal. Investors are concerned that contract losses could become a more frequent problem. A recent Credit Suisse survey shows that 81% of the responding companies are offering telehealth benefits to their employees via health insurers instead of direct contracts. A decision to do the same is likely behind PepsiCo's shift away from Teladoc, according to Halper. One of the firm's health insurers, Anthem (ANTM), was the previous owner of LiveHealth Online." [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 06 May 2021 03:12 AM PDT "Dutch Green Business acquires specialist blockchain and artificial intelligence tech company to deliver smart reforestation and ecosystem restoration projects." This is probably the first time you're hearing about this company, so let me first tell a bit more about it. Dutch Green Business (AMS:DGB) is a Dutch company that I've been eyeing for a while. It's a nano-cap stock listed at the Amsterdam Exchange Euronext. It was a shell stock until recently, when a new CEO picked up and started a green business model. It's business model revolves around reforesting crucial areas around the world and selling the carbon credits it obtains from this. Despite being nano-cap it has been hogging the limelight quite a bit recently. Not too long ago former British politician Nigel Farage (!) joined the Advisory Board of DGB. DGB's first projects in Paraguay and Sierra Leone are also picking up steam. This acquisition is only the latest bit of news and it seems to confirm DGB's commitment to utilizing market forces to offset carbon emissions. I am definitely keeping an eye on this stock and wanted to share this latest piece of news of you. [link] [comments]  |
| Results of 30 days of tracking all Reddit Sentiment Data (round 3) Posted: 05 May 2021 10:24 AM PDT For those that missed the original post, here it is. The struggle with the original data is that although it narrowed down the list of potential tickers to buy substantially, there were still often dozens or over 100 that were left, and with those that were left it was hard to determine which ones to buy. Obviously I needed to add in more criteria and start tracking what it did to the list of potential buys. To be nice I'll put the TL;DR up top here, if you're interested in the full details scroll down TL;DR
Some of the issues with the original data:
Here are the new items I began tracking with this data:
What I continued to track:
In the end really good data came from it. I had no biases entering into this but I was still surprised to see pennies perform as well as they did. Even without them, there are definitely sweet spots for whatever type of stock you're buying. Just run SPACs, Pennies, and all the rest separately since they each pull the data different directions. Good luck! To save my inbox I've tried to answer all the questions I could in previous comments and on the sheets themselves. I'm not selling this, making any money off it in any way, and don't really care if anyone follows the data or not, so this is just a passion project from a data nerd. Do with it what you will. I know I should put it online or use Github or something - I don't know how to do all of that. I'm an excel nerd, and that's about it. If you know how and want to do the work I'm more than happy to share all my calculations, data, background stuff, etc - I even left the calculations in the sheets so you can see how they work yourselves if you want them. [link] [comments]  |
| Why doesn't the market like these results ? Posted: 05 May 2021 01:39 PM PDT Hi Guys, Following are the results from RKT - Rocket Companies for this quarter released just about 30 minutes ago. This stock is down 11% for reasons beyond my understanding. Can someone please explain me what is going wrong here? Grew revenue, net to $4.6 billion, up 236% year-over-year- Increased Adjusted Revenue to $4.0 billion, up 91% year-over-year¹- Grew net income to $2.8 billion, up 28x year-over-year- Increased Adjusted Net Income to $1.8 billion, up 170% year-over-year¹ What is that this market understands but I am not getting it ! [link] [comments]  |
| Vista Outdoor ($VSTO) pre-earnings DD Posted: 05 May 2021 06:31 PM PDT Vista Outdoor ($VSTO) is not only a summertime hiking/camping/exercise play, which I think most everyone is looking forward to this year, it's the biggest manufacturer of ammo in the US. In fact, there are only two big civilian ammo manufacturers in the US (the other is $OLN), and VSTO dominates that market, including primers. They report earnings before open 5/6. When they report, their TTM P/E will flip from above 35 to about 9 (yes, nine). They had a bad quarter 4Q ago as the company was undergoing some restructuring after a CEO change; so sometimes this stock has moved as if it's a high-P/E tech stock. But really, it's essentially a deep value stock that also has "explosive" growth in ammo sales. Their market cap was 25% higher under Obama and the company's core lines have grown since then. Gun folks buy more guns'n'ammo under democratic administrations, not GOP ones. The prior CEO was replaced (excuse me: "retired") because he made some bad acquisitions which have since been divested, and better ones made instead (e.g. acquiring Remington's ammo business). This stock benefits from civil unrest (note price bumps during G-Floyd riots last year), war, paranoia, etc. Basically: 'murica. You might have heard we nearly had some people in hats overthrow the government. Those people all buy ammo. Basically 15% of the country is gearing for civil war and VSTO had a billion dollar backlog at the end of 2020 -- about half their market cap. The national ammo shortage still persists to this day. Gun background checks are off the charts. VSTO has pricing power. The weekly options are pretty high IV so they aren't an easy way to play this stock unless you're selling 'em. But I think VSTO is gonna pop on earnings, and long-dated options have much more reasonable IV. VSTO has multiple analyst upgrades recently (two major price target raises in the past two weeks), lots of free cash flow, and recently refinanced their completely reasonable debt to a higher credit quality. There's been good news about their new ammo plants (including Remington) coming online. It's a candidate for buybacks or a special dividend. They have 116 full-time job openings listed on their site; many of which are unrelated to ammo, so I guess those parts of their business are going well, too. But wait, how have comparable stocks done this week in earnings? Is this industry healthy?
The main risk I see is any possible supply chain disruption (or cost increases) due to shipping. But that just means demand is deferred forward, not denied, and they already have a huge backlog. Its price has also run up a lot in the past year (like many stocks), but it's not near its 2016 market cap and not at its YTD high. Daily RSI is under 70 and trending up for those who care about technicals. VSTO has a market cap of ~$2.1b. About half a NKLA, half an AMC, 1/5 of a GME, or 1/10 of a SPLK. Look up VSTO's numbers on finviz or macrotrends. I'll leave it at that. Position: long shares @ $33. Long-term bullish. I might buy calls or sell puts, too. tl;dr -- outdoorsman value stocks are reporting great earnings and VSTO is next in line, the country is a mess, you can buy ammo stock if you aren't just buying stocks of ammo. Also I thought they reported after market close 5/6, so I was gonna post this in the morning, but apparently they report before market open (welp!). So I'm posting it now. Still useful, I hope, as this is not just a one-time earnings stock. [link] [comments]  |
| What are your selling principles for crypto? Posted: 05 May 2021 10:19 PM PDT At the risk of humblebragging, I will say that I started I investing in crypto last year in April (or rather, started making money on investing after losing a lot in the 2017 crash), which means I'm up a good amount at this point. Originally, I thought I should have sold after doubling my money back when BTC hit ~$14k, but my friends talked me out of it. Now I'm in "I've made more money in one year of buying crypto than I did on my W2 last year" territory, and I'm starting to wonder (see: become nervous about) A. whether or not to sell at that point and B. if others share that principle. A. Is obviously impossible for you all to answer, but I'm curious what types of principles you follow in terms of selling (Once I hit x multiple I decide to sell, once I hit y amount of savings I sell or will sell, etc). Doesn't necessarily have to be crypto, either. Ex: one of my buddies says he's firm on selling once BTC hits $87k Hope that question makes sense. [link] [comments]  |
| [5/06] Best-Performing China Concept Stocks Posted: 06 May 2021 03:46 AM PDT $FUTU , $FINV, $TIGR, $QFIN , $CAN , $YI $, ACH , $ICLK, $GTH, $DQ More insights: https://equalocean.com/analysis/2021043016214 Chart: https://twitter.com/EqualOcean/status/1390235246772178950 [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 05 May 2021 09:34 PM PDT Hello everybody, just wanted to share something that I discovered and see what everybody thinks of my conclusion. This is about investing in mutual funds versus Index Funds/ETF's in a Roth IRA. I will be using T Rowe Price's Mutual funds and Vanguard's ETF's. I noticed that Vanguard's ETF's have annual returns that are very close to Trowe's mutual funds and decided to do some math to figure out if I should continue purchasing mutual funds with them or completely switch to Vanguard. I mean after all we all want the most amount of non-taxable money in our Roth IRA's when we retire right? I selected five of the best performing funds that each company had to offer and wrote down each funds expense ratio as well as their 10-year ROI average. I then calculated the average expense ratio and average ROI assuming the money I put in would be spread evenly into each mutual fund or ETF. I noticed that the Vanguard account actually came out with more money than the actively managed mutual funds. What do you guys think of this? I would expect mutual funds should outperform ETF's by a long shot. Here is the data and tell me what you think. If you feel like I missed something im all ears and open to criticism.Vanguard: Expense Ratio% 10-YR ROI% VTHR 0.10 13.88 VUG 0.04 16.71 MGK 0.07 17.39 VOO 0.03 14.14 VOOG 0.10 16.38average 0.068% 15.70%$2500 initial investment + $5000/year for 35 years = GROSS= $6,443,237 NET= $6,333,474 FEES= $109,762 TRowePrice: Expense Ratio% 10-YR ROI% PRMTX 0.76 18.70 TRBCX 0.69 17.07 PRHSX 0.76 19.05 RPGEX 0.85 13.27 TRULX 0.74 13.66average 0.76% 16.35%$2500 initial investment + $5000/year for 35 years = GROSS= $7,594,556 NET= $6,266,627 FEES= $1,327,929 Calculator used: Nerdwallet mutual fund calculator Quick EDIT: I selected 5 of the best performing funds in my own opinion. There are plenty of different funds to choose from this was just my selection. [link] [comments]  |
| Value of ishares Global Property securities Index Fund Posted: 06 May 2021 02:31 AM PDT I'm looking to diversify my portfolio, and am considering the ishares Global Property securities equity index fund. Does anyone have a view on the ongoing prospects of the fund? I'm attracting to the seeming diversity of holdings it contains, and that it's one of the few broad-based investments yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, though obviously that's for good reason. The thing I don't understand as a rookie in that regard, is how does this fund (or REITs in general) behave in repurposing? e.g. if there are huge office blocks which are going to become residential due to the shift to home working, are the REIT's structured to take advantage of that. Anyway, would be very interested to hear what people think. Nothing taken as advice, of course, I hope this sort of post is ok. [link] [comments]  |
| Buying the top S&P500 holdings individually and rebalancing every quarter? Posted: 05 May 2021 09:30 PM PDT New investor here, take this idea with a grain of salt I know I'm not the first to consider this, as I've seen other threads about this however I feel this question hasn't been answered thoroughly: Is there a benefit in buying the top holdings in the S&P 500 individually and rebalancing your portfolio every quarter? Assuming that the top 15 make the most and the remaining 485 are laggards, why not? This can go beyond just S&P500, such as other popular ETFs like ARKK, QQQ, etc. In today's age of zero commission fees and stock slices (Charles Schwab for example), this idea sits in my head. Could you beat the S&P 500 returns with this method? [link] [comments]  |
| Xilinx's Q4 Record revenue of $851 million in the quarter; fiscal 2021 revenue of $3.15 billion Posted: 05 May 2021 10:09 AM PDT Record revenue of $851 million in the quarter; fiscal 2021 revenue of $3.15 billion Data Center Group (DCG) revenue in the quarter increased 28% sequentially, and fiscal 2021 revenue increased 20% over the prior year Wired and Wireless Group (WWG) revenue in the quarter increased 13% sequentially, driven by strength in Wireless with multiple regions deploying 5G, partially offset by weakness in Wired Aerospace & Defense, Industrial and Test, Measurement & Emulation (AIT) revenue in the quarter declined 2% sequentially, with strong Industrial end market performance offset by an expected decline in TME and softness in Aerospace & Defense sales Automotive, Broadcast and Consumer (ABC) revenue in the quarter declined 1% sequentially, with a record quarter in the Automotive end market offsetting seasonal declines in Broadcast and Consumer end markets Fiscal fourth quarter free cash flow of $227 million, representing 27% of revenue; fiscal 2021 free cash flow of $1.04 billion, or 33% of revenue [link] [comments]  |
| Worried about biden waiving vaccine patents Posted: 05 May 2021 11:16 PM PDT Disclaimer, moderna and biontech make up my biggest holdings of all shares I own and without a doubt stand for most of my profits. Ive always felt they were safe investments and bought more everytime they significantly dipped but now I am very worried. If the patents for biontech and moderna are waived, they will dip and not just temporarily this time since this means their future revenue and valuations wont be as high anymore if generics will be produced. Its already started to dip quickly after just reaching its all tile high and it scares me because apart from this news, they only had good news. I am considering selling what I have to get out before it gets worst. But would that be panic selling? How likely is it that waving the patents will go through? [link] [comments]  |
| Why should I change from Robinhood? Posted: 05 May 2021 09:48 PM PDT Let me start by saying, I am NOT a day trader, and I am VERY new to the stock market (within the last 3 months). So I am still learning how all of this works. Saying that, I really enjoy RH because of how user friendly it is. I've downloaded other apps like Fidelity, Ameritrade, etc. None of them seem to be quite as easy to use. It's seems they are built more for people who do this for a living. Am I missing something within these other Apps? I work 75+ hours a week, so the ease of access to info is a huge perk. I hear the issues with RH and just wondering what other people experience is with other apps that are very user friendly, and the perks of switching. [link] [comments]  |
| Limiting turnover in levered portfolios Posted: 05 May 2021 08:59 AM PDT After spending a bit too much time reading However, I'm not exactly sure how to implement this because...
So, how can I ideally just buy ETFs as the core of my portfolio, get the cheap financing rates of futures (box spreads seem to fill this role pretty nicely, but open to other suggestions) while not having to realize my gains or losses while still keeping a relatively constant leverage ratio? Rebalancing with inflows is definitely an option, but a prolonged sell-off could mean that the portfolio's leverage would be drifting up faster than me adding cash could bring it down. Does anyone have any (systematic, ideally) strategies to "rebalance" using futures to offset positions (ie selling some ES contracts when SPY drops to reduce exposure to stocks when they drop while getting more exposure through ETFs as they recover?) or anything else that solves my conundrum? Or is simply not using much leverage and praying that you never see a catastrophic, 1929 level loss in your lifetime (or the 20 or so years you would be using leverage before delivering as your near retirement) the only option to limit turnover and the associated tax drag (so not adjusting leverage at all). Or am I missing something else entirely? [link] [comments]  |
| Investing in rappers music. I wouldn’t be here if I didn’t think the individual was talented. Posted: 05 May 2021 11:59 PM PDT I have a friend with followers and talent that sings. I know you heard this before. "Has a fire CD". I'm 33 and I've heard it all, but he actually great (or I'd like to think so) I'm not looking for free money, I'm looking for a company with an application that allows followers to make donations. Beyond donating, the money they contribute will help pay for a certain venture or could even buy apparel. Almost like a wedding registry. I've seen some pages that may work, but some of their testimonials promote fighting a serious healthcare cause. Not something I want to tie this type of donation to. At the end of the day, I just want to create a page where people can freely listen to this individuals music and donate to be receive recognition. [link] [comments]  |
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