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    Stock Market - When in doubt, zoom out

    March 04, 2021

    Stock Market - When in doubt, zoom out

    When in doubt, zoom out

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 10:49 AM PST

    Fighting for my life

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 03:09 PM PST

    No need to panic

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 10:11 AM PST

    Why is the market tanking in recent weeks?

    First, what it isn't: Treasury yields. Don't listen to the news. This just means that no one wants to buy bonds so the price of bonds is going down to attract new investors. This happens in a healthy economy. Can't believe the fake news is really pushing this.

    What I would see if this was anything other than a correction:

    Consumer cyclical and natural resource holdings would increase with major investment firms. Positions in small cap stocks would decrease. Real estate holdings would increase.

    How I know these things aren't happening:

    It's best to track these activities through major firms and ETFs. I track SPY's holdings daily. They have teams of analysts and resources I just don't have. They're the first to know. I do not watch the news for financial information.

    So what is it?

    I see firms reorganizing portfolio's for a post-C19 market. IE, aerospace and defense stocks are going up - Raytheon is up 12%/Boeing up 16% in the same time the Nasdaq was down 9%. Travel stocks like JetBlue are also doing well in that time frame.

    When will it stop?

    Who knows, but it couldn't have been expected and it's too late to sell high and buy low now. I'm waiting it out. I have been increasing positions with remaining cash but I'm out going forward.

    Will tech rebound?

    Yes. New tech is where the money is. I see strong cross-sector growth continuing through Q3 this year. Q1 industrial is very strong so far. Many of these up and coming tech companies are going to be pushing into their manufacturing phases.

    submitted by /u/Ok-Midnight9757
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    Buying the dip this week

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 07:23 PM PST

    Stonks

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 08:04 PM PST

    Me trying not to look at my portfolio this week

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 12:39 PM PST

    Weird times

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 10:06 AM PST

    Things are a mess in general right now. I think everyone here knows that. But I'm a relatively new investor who is mostly in ETFs (main = VTI), and I'm looking for someone with a lot of experience to share their opinion with me.

    I joined at a time where mostly I've lost money even on "safe" stocks and I don't have the years under my belt to shake it off just yet. Also, I don't have the profits to soak up the loses, so it's hitting a little different. If you just joined now but with the knowledge you've learned over the years, would you continue monthly investments into your "safe" ETF stocks or hold back for a while?

    *To clarify (because at least one person took this post the wrong way): this post is not about "I lost money I can't afford to lose." It is more asking "In your opinion, are ETFs like VTI still a smart investment despite recent volatility, or are we seeing some kind of fundamental change?"

    submitted by /u/SavageMigraine
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    Started reading this new book to learn. "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham. Any suggest any other good books to learn?

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 06:54 PM PST

    Every time I look at my Robinhood account this week.

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 07:57 PM PST

    Accepting I don’t have the temperamental qualities to actively invest

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 05:38 AM PST

    Warren Buffet always says how you don't need to have the highest IQ you need to have a rock solid temperament. I now know what he means.

    A couple months back I decided to try actively "invest" 10 percent of my portfolio. I'm actually up a a decent amount against the index but I'm completely done with it.

    I just feel frazzled and exhausted. Like a very mild concussion. It's like I can't win, if I pick something and it goes down then I feel bad and anxiously check the price, if I pick something and it goes up I'm annoyed I didn't invest more.

    If you're investing in rock-solid business then like Warren says you shouldn't worry about the daily stock price, but I just can't pretend that watching it goes up doesn't make me happy, and I can't pretend watching it fall doesn't make me feel anxious.

    I think actively "investing" is way harder for people who aren't super rich because you know that the daily vicissitudes represents real money that can go along way in your life, so it's harder to be as emotionally detached as you need to be.

    People say how if you like a stock and it goes down you should be doubly-happy because you can get the same thing at a discount. But at SOME point the price will start validating your thesis, right, and because the situation is rapidly evolving how do you know that it going down 10 percent isn't a sign something has changed and you need to do more research.

    Also, it's actually really about to what extent the quality of the business is already priced in, and there's just an unlimited amount of research you can do, so how do you know when you have done enough to make a decision?

    At one point I convinced myself I was onto a sure thing and went heavy into it, blowing past my previous 10 percent rule and putting 20 percent in. "Why double X when I could double 2X?" Again I got lucky and didn't lose here but at the cost of thinking about it and checking the stock price obsessively for two weeks.

    I know all of this is driven by impatience and at some level the desire for a quick buck. It just became all-consuming for me. Not really sure what the purpose of writing this was other than to vent and maybe others have had a similar experience

    submitted by /u/learning2program98
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    I built a spreadsheet to track and analyze stocks!

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 12:09 PM PST

    Hey everyone,

    I created a spreadsheet to track & analyze stocks. So far it has received 19,000+ upvotes accross Reddit!

    Here's a copy

    It consists of two sheets:

    1. Tracker: A way to track various stocks and automatically pull financial ratios and data.
    2. Fundamental Analysis: Pulling financial statement data, ratios and key metrics for individual tickers for analysis.

    Everything is automated, the only things you have to change are the tickers and data points you want to pull.

    Make a copy (File > Make a Copy) and refer to the "Guide" tab for instructions on how to get it up and running! Enjoy!

    submitted by /u/oldworlds
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    “Stock Sell Off Continues Third Straight Day”.... This is part of the downtrend and problem (the Red).. “The Media”... Maybe if we all turn off the news and skip the herd-listening/acting, the Green will come. Stop Selling!!

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 11:14 AM PST

    What Do You Think?

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 06:17 PM PST

    My Watchlist For 3/5/2021 - PLEASE GOD BE CAREFUL AND HAVE $SQQQ, $SPXS, AND $LABD ON DEEEEEEEEEEECK

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 04:35 PM PST

    The $1 Trillion Electric Vehicle Boom Is Just Getting Started

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 07:05 PM PST

    Winners change - Growth vs Value

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 04:42 PM PST

    Disclaimer: I'm not a investment professional, just a normal person who has done a fair bit of research and has a fair bit of money invested in a portfolio. But as I've learned more and more I have some pretty strong opinions, and the last few weeks has given me an opportunity to illustrate one of them.

    I'm a pretty strong subscriber to the investor strategy described over at r/bogleheads, which values diversity over performance chasing. As part of this strategy, they encourage using something like the ETF VTI as a core holding for equities, with the theory that if you hold all of the stock market, you're definitely not going to underperform it. This is a theory put forth by Jack Bogle who founded Vanguard, and the general strategy is followed in one form or another by various great investors including Warren Buffet.

    Since the first of the year, it's been challenging for the stock market, but more for some than for others. The last two weeks have been particularly rough for some.

    My core holding is VTI. Almost all of my domestic equities are in it. Over the last two week's it's only lost around 5%. By contrast, ARKK has lost 22%. Some other stocks have lost even more.

    To explain a bit about why the difference, I need to back off and explain for those who don't know the difference between 'growth stocks' and 'value stocks'. Growth stocks generally trade at a price based on future potential. Think TSLA, AMZN or FB. Value stocks typically trade at or below what they're worth and are generally older more established companies, such as Citicorp or ExxonMobil.

    For the following, I'm using the fund 'VUG' as a proxy for growth stocks, and 'VTV' as a proxy for value stocks. If you combine VUG and VTV in the right ratio you'll end up with the equivalent of VOO which is the S&P 500.

    Since about 2009 growth stocks have, well, grown. Investors have been willing to pay a premium for a stock in a growing company. Value stocks have somewhat languished, or more accurately not grown in value as fast as the growth stocks during this period. If you look at a 10 year cumulative growth chart you'll find that 10K would have turned into $45K if invested in VUG and $28K if invested in VTV.

    But, growth stocks have not always done so well. Statistically Value stocks actually have grown more. If you would have put $10K in value stocks in the year 2000, you would have had a pre-pandemic value of $36K, and only $29K if you had invested in growth. Only with the crap performance of value stocks and the outsized performance of growth stocks since COVID hit has growth overtaken value for this portfolio.

    So, back to this year. If you compare the performance of VUG and VTV this year to date, you'll find that VUG has lost 1.6% of value, but VTV has gained 6.2%. Over the past two weeks, VTV has stayed even, and VUG has lost 8.3%. So it would have been better to be invested in Value stocks instead of Growth stocks since the first of the year, and possibly part way into December.

    The point here is that winners rotate - we've had a good run of Growth stocks, and a very great 2020 for growth stocks. But there is no guarantee that it will continue. There are quite a few in the investment community that thinks the run of growth stocks is coming to a close and that in 2021 Value stocks will dominate. It wouldn't shock me if some of the movement which one is seeing is migration from growth to value.

    But the other problem is that no-one knows when these transitions will occur and whether they'll continue. It's pretty obvious at this point that the last couple months were better for value stocks. But is this the new long term trend? If so, dumping VUG and buying VTV is a good idea. Or is it a momentary blip and holding VUG is better?

    The boglehead philosophy of holding a S&P 500 fund like VOO or even better a full stock market fund like VTI or VT is about hedging one's bets. Over the last two weeks, VOO has lost 4.0%. This is worse than VTV at 'no change', but also better than VUG at -8.3%.

    This also eliminates the need/desire to time the market. If this is truly a long term change toward value, everyone with VUG should have switched to VTV in December, but the signs weren't all that clear back then. If you switch now, you're selling VUG at a lower price than you could have and buying VTV at a premium. Still better than holding VUG through a long period of value being king. But, what if this is just a blip and in two months Value is gaining again, do you then switch back, losing more profit in the process?

    You can easily eat into the profits one gains by trying to pick a winner just due to not switching at exactly the right time. If you switch now, my overly simplistic and probably wrong mathematical analysis looks like you are trading across a 7.8% spread compared to the first of the year. How long will it take you to earn back 7.8%, especially if you end up wasting another 7.8% switching back the other way?

    The key here is that strategies which require you to time the market are hard for even seasoned investors to pull off. If you read the analyst reports about whether or not we're in for a long-term switch from growth to value, you'll find much debate about whether that's the case here.

    The other lesson is that buying a broad-market fund which doesn't overweight any segment is more stable long-term than picking 'growth' over 'value' and trying to guess when one should switch between them. Averaging out risk over a large number of stocks (thousands in VTI) tends to blunt market ups and downs. It's sort of the tortoise vs the hair approach. Or 'slow and steady wins the race'.

    I am not one to discount the 'fun' of trying to pick winners and losers in the market. I have a very small (<1%, except for my 2+ year old TSLA bet which paid off) amount of funds which I buy this and that. I have a share or two each of the ARK funds. Some 'haven't recovered yet from COVID' stocks, and some stocks I believe in. But for me, I value the stability of knowing that my funds in VTI will continue earning somewhere around 7-8% on average from now until retirement.

    submitted by /u/Pass_Little
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    I'm not selling, but you probably should if you need the money.

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 01:12 PM PST

    Listen to the sheer amount of panic right now. "guys, listen, seriously, here's why you shouldn't panic sell" or "we are NOT in crash, here's why". You sound scared because you are scared.

    And while it's sort of true you shouldn't panic sell, there is a possibility that we're in a crash. Covid mainia lead to degenerate behavior in crypto, online gambling, and stocks, with GME being the straw the broke the camels back, IMO

    I mean seriously, look how moronic these GME people are. WSB memes and jokes are meant to be stress release valves for the incredible losses that people achieve when trying to YOLO, but GME idiots have turned it into the most annoying, retarded propaganda machine that basically dominates that sub now and has also made global news.

    Guess what, this SCARES AWAY investors. Serious investors and institutions don't want to be around retarded apes, as funny as you might think that is.

    I only have about 250k in the stock market. This is only about 30% of my NW so while I'm definitely worried about losing money, it won't sink me. Many of you are putting much more on the line that you can afford to risk, chasing WSB yolo dreams. Nothing wrong with that, I chase them too... but realize that things CAN get worse. I don't think they will get too much worse, but they could.

    If you need to pay for shit like food, or a roof, or you know, important stuff. Don't gamble. The stock market is for snakes and rich people to play around in, normal people can make money but a lot get buried alive. Most of the people you see on WSB posting crazy losses are multi-millionaire trust fund kids or tech people who made millions before they turned 35.

    submitted by /u/flovidchan
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    Here is a Market Recap for today Thursday, March 4, 2021

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 01:26 PM PST

    PsychoMarket Recap - Thursday, March 4, 2021

    Stocks slumped Thursday once again, continuing the recent selloff. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) led the selloff, falling 1.64%. The S&P 500 (SPY) fell 1.24% and the Dow Jones (DIA) fell 1.07%. At session lows, both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 erased 2021's gains.

    The moves lower came even after a new report on weekly unemployment claims came in better than expected, pointing to improving employment trends.

    • Initial jobless claims: 745,000 vs. 750,000 expected and a revised 736,000 during the prior week.
    • Continuing claims: 4.295 million vs. 4.300 million expected and 4.419 million during the prior week

    During a public appearance Thursday afternoon, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday that the central bank will be "patient" in keeping interest rates near zero, even if inflationary pressures start to rise. Powell cautioned that as the COVID-19 vaccine rollout continues, the Fed could see signs of rising prices amid surging consumer spending. But the Fed chairman noted that he does not expect higher inflation to turn into anything resembling the double-digit inflation of the 1970s. He said, "If we do see what we believe is likely a transitory increase in inflation, where longer-term inflation expectations are broadly stable at levels consistent with our framework and goals, I expect that we will be patient."

    As Treasury yields continue to rise, market participants are increasingly rotating out of high-growth names that led the markets in 2020. Technology stocks came under exceptional selling pressure as traders turned their focus to stocks poised to benefit more directly from an impending economic reopening. At the same time, the recent, rapid rise in Treasury yields has also deterred investors from growth stocks, with interest rates closely tied to borrowing costs for companies and consumers. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 1.544% at the time of writing.

    In other news, lawmakers in the Senate are set to begin debating President Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus, which was passed by the House of Representatives recently. Democrats are racing to push the legislation forward before the mid-March expiry of augmented Federal unemployment benefits. Republicans do not support the bill because of its size, but through a process called reconciliation, Democrats will be able to pass the bill without support from the other side of the aisle.

    Highlights

    • The decisions by Britain and the United States to suspend retaliatory tariffs will create space for negotiations on an ongoing dispute between Boeing (BA) and Airbus, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said on Thursday.
    • President Biden said his administration expects to have enough COVID-19 vaccines for any adult that wants it by the end of May, pulling the targets two months closer than the previous government estimate.
    • U.S. mortgage rates extended their recent leg higher to break above 3% for the first time since July 2020, raising concerns that the housing market's breakneck growth last year may sharply lose momentum.
    • Square (SQ) announced it took a majority stake in music platform Tidal that is owned by rapper Jay-Z. Jay-Z will be added to the board of directors at Square.
    • Please note that the stock price was written in the morning and does not account for intraday changes.
    • Airbnb (ABNB) with a host of target raises just over the $200 mark. Stock around $175. Including by Credit Suisse, Piper Sandler, Canaccord Genuity, & Needham
    • Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) had a price target raise by Morgan Stanley from $46 to $60
    • Big target raise for Alarm.com (ALRM) by Raymond James from $75 to $115 at STRONG-BUY
    • American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) target raise
      • Citigroup from $29 to $32
      • UBS Group from $31 to $37
      • Jeffries Financial $30 to $32
    • Broadcom (AVGO) had a price target raise by Oppenheimer from $500 to $575 at OUTPERFORM
    • Carvana (CVNA) received a price target raise by JMP Securities from $250 to $290 at MARKET OUTPERFORM
    • Etsy (ETSY) with host of target raises
      • Goldman Sachs $178 to $286 BUY
      • Canaccord Genuity $215 to $270 BUY
      • Morgan Stanley $93 to $123 UNDERWEIGHT
      • Roth Capital $235 to $245 BUY
      • Needham $155 to $235 BUY
    • Fisker (FSR) with a Target raise by Morgan Stanley from $27 to $40 at OVERWEIGHT
    • Futu Holdings (FUTU) Citigroup raise target from $120 to $245 at BUY. This is a big one!
    • Guardant Health (GH) had a price target raise by Morgfan Stanley $MS from $130 to $175
    • HP (HPQ) with a price target raise by Morgan Stanley from $30 to $38 at OVERWEIGHT
    • Liveperson (LPSN) with a host of target raises. We like it at current elvels with this week's selloff.
      • Mizuho $75 to $90 BUY
      • Needham $65 to $71
      • Rosenblatt $73 to $75 BUY
    • PetIQ (PETQ) price target raised by Raymond James $35 to $45 OUTPERFORM
    • Renewables Energy Group (REGI) target raised by H.C. Wainwright from $70 to $115 at BUY. This is timely, especially with the selloff. We like it.
    • Twitter (TWTR) with a host of target raises by Goldman Sachs, Pivotal Research, Canaccord Genuity, KeyCorp, Rosenblatt. Most at BUY or OVERWEIGHT with end price target between $90 and $100
    • Shake Shack (SHAK) with host of target raises
      • Deutsche Bank $70 to $107 HOLD
      • Piper Sandler $122 to $135 OVERWEIGHT
      • Morgan Stnaley $87 to $95 EQUAL WEIGHT

    "The first rule of investment is 'buy low and sell high', but many people fear to buy low because of the fear of the stock dropping even lower. Then you may ask: 'When is the time to buy low?' The answer is: When there is maximum pessimism." - Sir John Templeton

    submitted by /u/psychotrader00
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    FUBO Analysis: Flag Pattern

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 01:28 PM PST

    FUBO Analysis: Flag Pattern

    Potential flag on the daily chart.

    For the past month, the market has been in a slump.. FUBO included. Ever since this drop started, the volume on FUBO has been decreasing daily. So where does that leave us?

    If you refer to the daily chart below, we see a clear flag pattern forming. Today's candle served well and gives us trust in the support line of this flag. The long wick on the bottom of recent candle indicates traders buying the dip (hammer).
    Also, take a look at the volume these past few days; high volume with eager bulls behind it waiting for a breakout.

    I expect consolidation from FUBO between the 30.00 - 44.00 range until a candle opens above or below one of the trend lines.

    I have made calculations on a target for the breakout (In red and green text). This is only a calculation and gives a rough estimate of where FUBO can possibly end up at in the upcoming weeks/months.

    An Iron condor seems to be a solid play as we count the days until this thing breaks out. Wait for confirmation of higher highs from today's candle.

    FUBO is a volatile ticker, so keep an eye on it. Moon soon.

    Breakout Target: 76.20

    Popular Options Flow:
    FUBO 34c 3/12 exp. @ 2.42

    FUBO Daily Chart

    submitted by /u/MoistBands
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    Prepared to live with this for a while

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 10:43 AM PST

    IMHO, the market is not going to bounce back tomorrow or next week. It'll keep going down and will stabilize eventually. I decided to cut my losses on the chances I took, the positions I took in companies that I don't know anything about, heard about them on Twitter and decided to buy since even turds were going up in value. I closed out about 5 of those positions yesterday at a loss, and I would've been substantially more red today if I didn't do that. I closed out more of those positions today at a loss. Now I am only holding the companies I would actually INVEST in. The companies I don't mind holding for 5+ years (still have about 20 of those that I'm holding) . Thankfully the majority of the money were in those types of companies, I didn't go too heavy into the risk ones. I feel better now, don't need to keep checking my stupid portfolio worried about those short term plays. Also now I have more cash on hand to buy the dips when this roller coaster bottoms out. Just wanted to share my non-expert opinion, don't be scared to admit defeat on those gamble-type plays and take a loss now rather than later. For the long term plays, HODL.

    EDIT: Getting a lot of hate for managing my own risk and cutting my losses on certain stocks. I know everyone's emotional but come on now...Still have more than 120K invested in companies long term. I didn't advise anyone to follow suit and I said I'm no expert...calm the hell down and keep moving if you don't like my post.

    submitted by /u/Mecanix42
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    Robinhood has invisible margin, is this legal?

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 09:52 AM PST

    so heres the situation:

    i had some stock (not a lot just a handful) in Robinhood, robinhood forces you to a margin account but it was Not bought on margin that was My Money. so robinhood started acting shady so i decided to leave for a real broker, i decided on schwab.

    so i set up the Schwab, and begin transferring out of Robinhood. a few days later i get an email saying i cant transfer because my schwab acount is a cash acount, and the robinhood is a margin. i call them cause im confused (nothing is on margin? so why does it have to be a margin acount?), and they inform me that the request was denied because i had a Negative Margin ballance, -$70 or so. there are a number of problems with this.
    1: i never agreed to buy with margin on anything, and they never informed me i was buying on margin. i read what it says before i do anything and it never Told me something was on margin.
    2: i put $250 into the account, then bought $250 in stock, and now my buying power is at $0. so wheres the margin? i paid for that all with my money, if there was margin involved i would still have some buying power but no i paid for it All with My Funds.
    3: the -$70 is no visable ANYWHERE in my robinhood account. no where does it show i bought with margin, no where does it say i owe anything, Nothing. so what the fuck is the problem?

    i am in the process of liquidating the acount in fear of it somehow piling up but this doesnt feel legal to me. is there something im missing??

    update: i asked r/robinhood and they immediately removed the post. somehow im not surprised

    update 2: schwab helped me figure out what it was. it turns out there is a transfer fee of the $75 from Robinhood, which was listed as outstanding margin, which is shady to me but at least i know what it was.

    submitted by /u/LookItVal
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    Investment stocks : newbie SOS

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 08:43 PM PST

    I know very little about investing my money. I'm in my mid twenties and don't really know where to start. I heard motley fool is a bad idea. I even considered paying someone to help but read online that typically isn't a good idea. I don't have a high income so I plan on using $100 here and there from my pay checks. Came to ask if there is any potential investment stocks I should look at or research. My end game is to have more money in the bank then I would with an ira or saving on my own by the time I retire. I am in no way business savvy or good enough to make passive income. I plan on reinvesting my dividends and etc.

    submitted by /u/meemeiu
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    Benjamin Graham and Jason Zweig on the money

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 12:30 PM PST

    How do you guys deal with down-turns right after lump-summing?

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 04:43 PM PST

    So I apparently have some of the worst luck in the world (or maybe just really bad). I recently flipped a house and after tax had about 80k which I stuffed in the market Tuesday. Of that 80k, 74% is SCHB (US-wide), 26% VXUS, 2.5% PLTR, and 2.5% SPACs.

    Obviously the speculative plays are not doing so hot, but my SCHB/VXUS is also down bad. I'm down about 2k as of close today and its only been 2 days. Basically I'm already second-guessing my choices and whether or not I should eat that 2k loss and sell to either DCA or maybe later come back in after I have a cool head. I just feel this correction has quite some room to run still and that makes me nervous.

    This money is ear-marked for retirement, so my time-frame to use is 20+ years. Guess my concern is that if this is more than just a correction, I run the risk of not breaking even for potentially YEARS and that would just kill me. I know it'll be up in 20+ years. If not, we'll have bigger problems than money haha. Yes, I've read the "world's worst investor" thing you guys post here. Just worried its wasted opportunity to have that money stagnate for long periods of time.

    I'm getting a bit more numb to the losses considering they're slamming every account I own, but I'd be lying if I said it didn't keep me up and night and kind of interfere with work. Im a pretty fresh college grad, so this is a lot of money for me. Almost as much as my emergency fund, 401k, ROTH, and house fund combined.

    Looking for some advice on how to cope. Every time I've lump-summed (granted, they were smaller amounts) has been a downturn (a month before 2018 down-turn and the week before March 2020 crash). Im just hoping this ends up the same way...

    submitted by /u/sdpthrowaway3
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    A sad song on the worlds smallest violin for all those in the red

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 11:14 AM PST
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