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    Home Unlabelled Stock Market - Don't spend it on drugs again please

    Stock Market - Don't spend it on drugs again please

    March 05, 2021

    Stock Market - Don't spend it on drugs again please

    Don't spend it on drugs again please

    Posted: 05 Mar 2021 03:26 PM PST

    IM NOT SELLING!!!

    Posted: 05 Mar 2021 01:30 PM PST

    Old guy says relax. You've literally been through 3 of these in the last year.

    Posted: 05 Mar 2021 08:56 AM PST

    My dudes, here's some perspective:

    ​

    • NASDAQ went from 9785 to 6657 between Feb 20 and Mar 20. ~32% (Markets unsustainable! 'Gonna crash' yelled the news. covid helped that along)
    • Then it went from 12,300 to 10622 between Sep 2 to Sep 22. ~14% (Markets unsustainable! 'Gonna crash' yelled the news. i dont even remember why)
    • Current drop started around 13,891 on Feb 16. It's at 12,195 today (Mar 5) ~13% (Markets unsustainable! 'Gonna crash' yelled the news. something to do with treasury yields)
    • any of all the other 15% corrections/crash prior dating back to 2000. (Markets unsustainable! 'Gonna crash' yelled the news)

    My goodness, with all the self-therapy posts, it's like none of you were around before last month. Don't try to rationalize the reasons, the magnitude or the duration. it just is.

    • if you're in long-dated options or shares, then relax.
    • if it's not money you need immediately then relax.

    however, if it's neither of the above, then I suppose it is what it is.

    Source: Doing this since late 90s. current portfolio about down -6% (2021). Overall, since 90s, up about 500% doing literally nothing but buying and holding most of the stuff and trading about 15% of account.

    Edit: hey folks... Since you pointed it out. Out of curiosity I looked up the S&P inflation adjusted return for the same period. It's about 399% for context. I started around '98. But that's a cop out. I had several awful years that had I just did nothing, I would have been better off. Especially when I started.

    submitted by /u/civgarth
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    Markets ended green today (despite a drop in the morning)

    Posted: 05 Mar 2021 01:15 PM PST

    I have $3 and one kidney left

    Posted: 05 Mar 2021 03:19 PM PST

    The fact users are spamming $SSR is enough proof that bots have infiltrated other subs.

    Posted: 05 Mar 2021 02:10 AM PST

    ������

    Posted: 05 Mar 2021 11:18 AM PST

    I have a new strategy, hear me out

    Posted: 05 Mar 2021 04:06 PM PST

    Why PLTR is still a growth tech stock you STILL want to own.

    Posted: 05 Mar 2021 09:26 AM PST

    Why PLTR is still a growth tech stock you STILL want to own.

    Disclaimer: I'm not a financial advisor, make your own decisions. Data from PLTR's latest 10-K. Position: long shares of stock)

    Despite this appearing to be possibly the worst time to own growth stocks, especially in tech, I think there is still a great opportunity in Palantir (PLTR). The market sell-off has depressed PLTR's stock price ($21.75 at time of writing) to be currently trading at a 51% discount from its $45.00 high just a few weeks ago. The broader market sell-off creates a unique opportunity to buy shares of a company with leading technology and improving financials.

    If you believe in PLTR's technology I'm not sure why you wouldn't want to own this stock right now at these levels. This post will focus more on the numbers and less on the technology (which I do believe to be superior but I'll save that for a different post).

    When analyzing PLTR on GAAP metrics, the numbers are good, but not fantastic. You must remove 2 things to really get a true grasp of their core business, 1) Q3-20 should be adjusted due to the company incurring much higher than normal costs as they went public and, 2) removing the effects of stock based compensation. When you do this the company's numbers are actually MUCH stronger than they appear under normal GAAP metrics. From here on, charts labeled "Actual" refer to the actual amounts reported while "Adjusted" refer to those metrics less the effects of stock based comp.

    Revenue/COGS/Gross Profit: as pictured in the chart revenue is growing very well QoQ and only saw inflated COGS in Q3-20 (when the company went public - this will be a common theme).

    Actual amounts with effects of stock based comp

    When you remove Stock comp from the mix (as clearly outlined in their 10-K btw) you can see COGS is more in line with its historical trends (see below). You can also see Gross Profit margins improving as well as the company scales (VERY positive).

    (COGS in line with historical trend)

    ​

    (Quarterly gross margins improving)

    Additionally, PLTR has expanded both its Revenue from Commercial clients (21.5% YoY) and from Government clients (76.6% YoY) bringing the split of revenue from Commercial to Government to 44.2% and 55.8% respectively.

    ​

    Operating Expense: when you look at Opex you can see expenses ballooned in Q3-20 as the company incurred additional costs of going public, but when you remove those costs, the core business is much more attractive. (see below)

    ​

    (Inflated Q3-20 expenses due to going public)

    When you remove stock comp from the mix we see a much more consistent trend of opex:

    ​

    (Opex after removing effects of stock based comp)

    It's important to note that Revenue increasing and opex staying relatively stable is having a very strong effect on margins. Just look at opex as a % of revenue (see below). Revenue growth is significantly outpacing costs of the core business:

    ​

    (Adjusted Opex as a % of Revenue)

    Put this all together and you can see how PLTR's core business is looking strong and just over the peak of breaking even on a non-gaap basis:

    ​

    (Adjusted: Revenue, GP, Inc/Loss from Ops, Net Inc/Loss)

    And Quarterly EBITDA (see blelow): Growing EBITDA in absolute terms as well as a % of Revenue.

    ​

    (EBITDA by Quarter)

    ​

    (EBITDA as a % of Revenue)

    Overall, this company is profitable on a non-gaap basis and is trading an EXTREME discount from its previous highs. Of course rising rates and inflation concerns are something to factor in, but the financials of this company are sound imo and offer a great buying opportunity at this level. If I had spare cash I'd be buying into this weakness.

    Happy to hear thoughts from everyone else.

    submitted by /u/t-hawk5
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    I never learn my lesson

    Posted: 05 Mar 2021 03:11 PM PST

    Drunk me vs Wallstreet:

    Posted: 05 Mar 2021 04:19 PM PST

    These things always end at the top, ...right?

    Posted: 05 Mar 2021 10:20 AM PST

    The market these days

    Posted: 05 Mar 2021 06:15 PM PST

    Tesla breaks a record: The biggest six-week drop in value ever

    Posted: 05 Mar 2021 02:40 PM PST

    This is hell

    Posted: 05 Mar 2021 07:18 AM PST

    I know I'm just crying into the void along with every other novice retail trader but goddamn I just need to vent. Played around with investing in 2020 and made big returns. I had no real idea how fragile my entire approach was until these past three weeks. Moved huge portions of my portfolio from AMZN to ARKK early January. Took out margin equal to 50+% of my NLV to buy the "dip" a few days into this cycle and in hindsight I effectively doubled down on those positions at nearly their ATH. Everybody says it's a long game, hold it and forget it. And god I'm trying. But now I have to hold margin for all that time? That seems like fixing a terrible move with another terrible move. And ARKK isn't just tech, it's one of the riskiest tech ETFs out there. Why did I do that? God I feel stupid.

    This is too much for someone with existing mental health problems. I have an appointment with a financial advisor later today but it's going to take weeks/months to emotionally recover and a year/years to financially recover, best case scenario. I hate this.

    Edit: I know margin was stupid. I'm not from a background where people talk about investing. I never had a chance to talk to someone about the risks. All I knew was an instant loan with a 2.5% rate. None of you are wrong when you say it was stupid but I promise you I'm already telling myself that every minute.

    submitted by /u/BeholdTheMustache
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    For New Traders - Two Books

    Posted: 05 Mar 2021 06:18 PM PST

    What I told everyone when they told me not to Hodl..

    Posted: 05 Mar 2021 06:47 PM PST

    Who the F*CK is Buying Bonds!?

    Posted: 05 Mar 2021 02:17 PM PST

    Short utilization at 99%. A higher utilization rate also increases the likelihood that short sellers could face a buy-in if investors recall their loaned shares. But 100% which is pretty much here means there is zero shares left to short. The squeeze is imminent. -Not financial advise

    Posted: 05 Mar 2021 09:09 AM PST

    Big Trade in Oshkosh Shares Before Postal Award Spurs Questions $OSK $WKHS

    Posted: 05 Mar 2021 07:01 PM PST

    This Morning ������

    Posted: 05 Mar 2021 05:04 PM PST

    $UWMC

    Posted: 05 Mar 2021 10:22 AM PST

    The Stock Market crashes when people do bad things

    Posted: 05 Mar 2021 06:32 AM PST

    If you go back to the 2007 and 2008 disasters, you see a lot of shady naked short activity in the mortgage and real estate industries. Many will say, well this didn't cause the break. Well, it certainly didn't help and I think it played a larger role than the news is willing to admit.

    https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/2008/spch071808cc.htm

    So is the current situation any different?

    In 2020, the market was growing rapidly and short interest was still at an all time high. Then you have these correction weeks which were expected - but increase the desire to short. During those correction weeks, I was afraid that thoses hedges would get back to business and really drive this thing to the ground.

    Well guess what, I think those idiots throwing money at Gamestop left and right are actually saving us. These hedge funds are actually afraid to short anything right now and it's showing. In general, the short interest is dropping and the number of shares being shorted now vs earlier this year is dropping. APPL which was heavily shorted started the year with 100M short interest and sits at roughly 88M even with this correction.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/key-statistics?p=AAPL

    So thanks to all the GME people exposing all the garbage and keeping those hedges honest. I'll follow along and even though I wasn't part of the GME revolution, there is a lesson to be learned in all the craziness.

    submitted by /u/Ok-Midnight9757
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    $EYES and $EARS on Fidelity’s top gainers today

    Posted: 05 Mar 2021 10:45 AM PST
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