Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - March 31, 2021 Investing |
- Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - March 31, 2021
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- $TNA and $DKNG Due Diligence - JT$1M
- Might be a good time to short the Japanese stock market. It isn’t news yet, but another state of emergency looks likely in April
- Don't Confuse Archegos Collapse With Contagio - By Aaron Brown
- FTC files suit against Illumina (ILMN) to block vertical integration with Grail
- My take on Gold's longterm outlook
- How an energy firm tied to billionaire Warren Buffett plans to save the Texas electric grid
- Cloud Banking: Financial Services and Banking of the Future
- India-based plays, 3 ideas, thoughts?
| Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - March 31, 2021 Posted: 31 Mar 2021 02:01 AM PDT Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! This thread is for:
Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google. If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions. Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed. [link] [comments]  |
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 31 Mar 2021 02:00 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| $TNA and $DKNG Due Diligence - JT$1M Posted: 31 Mar 2021 03:37 AM PDT Markets:
Notable Recent Picks:
_______________________________________________________________________ All three major indices finished red as tech and semiconductors pulled back a little. However, it was mostly a mixed day as there were technically more advancers than losers and some of those were the ARK Invest ETFs. $ARKX launched, no pun intended, yesterday and it was for the most part uninteresting. I ended up buying only 100 shares, but have some more limit orders set if it further pulls back. I raised capital for the $ARKX by selling off my 125 shares of $PRNT which is one of the top holdings of $ARKX. I will further sell more of my space themed stocks and pile the money into this new space ETF. _______________________________________________________________________ Notable Mentions: $TNA: This ETF is the Direxion Small Cap Bull 3X ETF. The investment seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300% of the daily performance of the Russell 2000® Index. $TNA and small caps got hammered during the March, Covid lows, and have since recovered back to pre-covid levels. However, with this sector rotation that we are currently seeing, the ETF has pulled back 20% which isn't as bad as it seems. $TNA has almost lost all of its post covid gains. Small caps have been beating out other major benchmarks so it is time to move some money back into them. Even most ARK ETFs were beaten back 30%+ and considering $TNA is a 3X bull ETF, 20% seems pretty good, in my opinion. I believe that it is in good deal territory and hard to pass on right now. What could power more TNA gains is momentum. In theory, the broader universe of small caps can be considered a momentum play, but the factor is applicable here and some small stocks while others don't. About 58% of the small-cap momentum index is comprised of healthcare and technology stocks. Those sectors represent 21.37% and 15.11%, respectively, of TNA's underlying index. I have to assign a risk of 3 to $TNA because even though it is an ETF which provides great diversification, it is all concentrated into more volatile small caps. I'm interested in mid to long term calls, or just buying common shares. In the summer, when I rebalance my portfolio, I would like to put around 3-5% in small caps.
_______________________________________________________________________ $DKNG: DraftKings Inc. operates as a digital sports entertainment and gaming company in the United States. It operates through two segments, Business-to-Consumer and Business-to-Business. The company provides users with daily sports, sports betting, and iGaming opportunities. Since March lows, $DKNG has been consistently trading in a parallel channel and has almost reached our first target level of $75. We first entered at around $56 and since it has steadily been going up. Currently it is bouncing off of the support, and I fully expect that it will move towards the resistance in the next week or two. Probably we can see a $100 price by EOY, and a $75 in a couple weeks. $DKNG can provide an excellent short term options play right now, but don't overexpose yourself if you have $BJK like I do.
_______________________________________________________________________ Note: Risk (1 out of 5) is my opinion of how risky the stock and these plays are; 1 being the lowest and 5 is the highest. Disclaimer: The comments opinions and analysis expressed herein are for informational and educational purpose only and should not be considered as individual advice or recommendations. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 30 Mar 2021 08:05 PM PDT Until now, Japan has avoided big spikes in coronavirus infections. The capital of Tokyo currently has about 300 to 400 infections a day, which is close to average since the summer. The state of emergency was just called off and things are going back to relative normal right now. next week, college students across the country will return to campuses, albeit with masks. The Government is even thinking about promoting local travel in June. But it looks like this could be short-lived. The same Google model that accurately predicted the coronavirus spike in infections at New Year's predicts that Tokyo will see an enormous increase in infections by April 20. Up to 12,000 a day, which is massively more than the city has ever seen. https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/8224d512-a76e-4d38-91c1-935ba119eb8f/page/GfZpB If true, the government will have no choice but to call another state of emergency, it will considerably impede recovery prospects. I want to bet on this, but don't know how to do it without potentially losing my shirt. is there a simple way I could do it using my account using simple financial products? [link] [comments]  |
| Don't Confuse Archegos Collapse With Contagio - By Aaron Brown Posted: 30 Mar 2021 05:58 PM PDT // The fund was not overly levered and its risk was not hidden. We may find out additional details, but from what we currently know there's no reason to assume this was more than a losing trade by a very rich person. // [link] [comments]  |
| FTC files suit against Illumina (ILMN) to block vertical integration with Grail Posted: 30 Mar 2021 08:18 PM PDT In an unusual move, the Federal Trade Commission announced that they have filed suit to block genetic sequencing leader Illumina's (ILMN) $7.1B merger with the liquid biopsy company Grail. Interestingly, Grail was founded as a subsidiary of ILMN and was spun off. After filing to go public, Grail announced that they had entered into an agreement for ILMN to buy the rest of the company. It is the FTC's position that ILMN may stifle competition in the emerging liquid biopsy market. Because ILMN holds a monopoly on short read sequencing, their competitors in the liquid biopsy space have no choice but to use ILMN's products. Thus, the FTC believes the acquisition of Grail is anti-competitive. Interestingly, ILMN used to be one of the largest holdings in the ARKK and ARKG ETFs. Cathie Wood chose to divest after ILMN announced the acquisition of Grail because she believed it would put ILMN in direct competition with their competitors. This is the second time in 40 years that the FTC has blocked a vertical integration. They sued AT&T to block the integration with Time Warner Cable, which ultimately failed. Interestingly, this is the second time in two years the FTC has sued to block ILMN's acquisitions. They previously sued ILMN to block their merger with PACB. Ultimately ILMN and PACB terminated the merger. Exact Sciences recently completed a horizontal integration to acquire the liquid biopsy company Thrive, which was not challenged. Personally I believe this will take some time to wash out and I expect a bigger correction in ILMN stock. I believe this represents an opportunity for entries into a long position in ILMN. I have a hard time believing this merger won't go through. Long $ILMN. [link] [comments]  |
| My take on Gold's longterm outlook Posted: 31 Mar 2021 04:54 AM PDT From a technical perspective, gold is in a 10 year long cup and handle pattern, and it could go sideways for many more years until a breakout target of about 2900 is met. The fact that the right side of the cup is higher than the left side also is technically the most bullish form of C&H pattern. The problem for gold isn't technical, it's fundamentals. Despite extreme money printing since 2008, USD inflation measured by CPI has been historically low. In a low inflation environment, bonds have thrived and stole the risk/reward from gold. Now after the pandemic you would have thought gold should performed well, which it did, until bitcoin started to become more accepted by institutional investors in the fall of 2020. Institutional investors generally keep their holdings at certain ratios like 50% stocks, 30% bonds, 10% cash, and 10% inflation hedges. Bitcoin and gold can co-exist in a portfolio, but the problem is that they are fighting for the same slice of the pie which is about 10%. Until the adoption curve of bitcoin slows or inflation grows at a yearly 4% or higher, I don't see gold breaking new highs anytime soon. Gold miners are like gold's version of shitcoins. If you want a momentum driven, lowcap, and highly volatile version of gold, miners are for you. Gold mining is a stagnant industry with little innovation or promise of growth, their profitability hinges on the mercy of a high gold price. It looks like the miners have already priced in a gold bull market, so if gold enters another true bear market, miners are likely crashing 95% or more because their business model literally dies. There are better high reward industries with better a better outlook to spend your money than miners imo. [link] [comments]  |
| How an energy firm tied to billionaire Warren Buffett plans to save the Texas electric grid Posted: 30 Mar 2021 08:14 PM PDT
[link] [comments]  |
| Cloud Banking: Financial Services and Banking of the Future Posted: 31 Mar 2021 04:44 AM PDT Banks are racing to take advantage of market opportunities available through digital transformation. At the same time, they must manage the risks created by the new digital economy. There is a critical need for affordable computing platforms that provide greater agility. There is no doubt new digital technologies are changing the banking industry. Banks that embrace innovation and adopt new technologies have unprecedented opportunities to change and improve how they provide financial services including offering the ability to:
Restructuring the business model and processes is critical to any bank's successful digitalization. Leveraging innovative capabilities in a cloud deployment can not only speed up digital transformation initiatives but also deliver business-wide process improvements as well. [link] [comments]  |
| India-based plays, 3 ideas, thoughts? Posted: 29 Mar 2021 11:48 PM PDT Hi everyone - I don't post often and mostly at all but lately as I've been looking for value plays, felt the need to plug into the hive mind and see what people smarter then myself might be thinking. As a global play I hypothesize that developing countries will be on the rise in the next 5-10 years. I'm reluctant to do China and most of southeast asia due to heavy influence of politics, but India seems to geographically, and mentally, be positioned for best growth in the future. I want to avoid ETFs and also non-US listed companies as I think US regulation is beneficial to transparency and hopefully helps keep companies straight, at least to a point). Motivated by this thinking i took up finviz with a basic filter of India based companies, sorted by market cap, and then further looked into how the charts, analyst recommendations and social media sentiment looks. I landed on these three tickers, sorted into a convenient screener for whoever is interested in discussing on this post: https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=311&f=geo_india&t=HDB,IBN,RDY I'll probably do a bit of basic fundamental analysis later but I thought there might be people here who are way ahead of me. Any thoughts on these? And thoughts on ADR premiums, as I understand they might be high when buying on US market vs. Mumbai exchange? I tried my reddit DD but posts are few and from a long time ago. [link] [comments]  |
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