Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread Investing |
- Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- JPMorgan advises clients to expose 1% of their portfolio to Bitcoin
- Understanding how the bond yields affects the markets
- Dividend Stock Carry Forward Trade (yielding ~700% return)
- FDA moves to approve Johnson & Johnson’s ( $JNJ) COVID-19 vaccine after board votes unanimously in favor of vaccine
- My thesis on the Market. A Bull gone bearish (in the short term)
- Criteo (CRTO) – Why one of the biggest adtech players is also the most undervalued.
- What Undervalued stocks Are You Considering or Buying Given That The Market Has Been A Bit Red
- BEE VECTORING TECHNOLOGY A PROMISING AND HEALTHY INVESTMENT
- Treasury Madness (Snapshot)
- Where to put money during inflationary times
- I'm surprised to see TIPS ETFs dropping this month as the market admits to expecting more inflation.
- Why IMMR is Going to See Huge Growth Soon (IMMR DD)
- Forecasting using basic methods
- Self-driving truck technology startup TuSimple nears stock offering
- Nokia Call Spread - Jan 2023
- Inverse ETFs are a good way to hedge your portfolio
- Best Covered Call Stocks For Monthly Income
| Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread Posted: 27 Feb 2021 02:01 AM PST Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! This thread is for:
Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google. If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions. Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed. [link] [comments]  |
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 27 Feb 2021 02:00 AM PST If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| JPMorgan advises clients to expose 1% of their portfolio to Bitcoin Posted: 26 Feb 2021 12:59 PM PST In a recent note to clients, strategists from JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) suggested a one percent portfolio allocation to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. As reported by Bloomberg, JPM strategists Joyce Chang and Amy Ho opined that Bitcoin could serve as a hedge against fluctuations from traditional assets like bonds, stocks, and commodities. However, they advised clients to allocate a small percentage due to the risk of major downturns in Bitcoin's value. After setting a new all-time high above $58,000, the value of the digital asset slumped to less than $45,000 and has been struggling to recover ever since. Chang and Ho told investors:
Bitcoin has welcomed major investments from the likes of Paul Tudor Jones, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), and MicroStrategy. The endorsement from JPM comes at a time when institutional players are rushing to accumulate the digital asset. As per Bloomberg's report, America's oldest bank BNY Mellon (NYSE:BK) has also announced plans to enable Bitcoin transactions for its clients. The strategists were quick to add that cryptocurrencies should be viewed as an investment vehicle and opposed to being funding currencies like the USD or EUR. This appears to be contrary to earlier statements from other JPM analysts that called cryptocurrencies the "poorest hedge for major drawdowns in equities." [link] [comments]  |
| Understanding how the bond yields affects the markets Posted: 27 Feb 2021 03:23 AM PST Lets start from the beginning, bonds is government debt and the bond yields is what sets the the rate of return you get from the bonds, so if bond yield is at 2% that is the rate you get back each year. It works the same as supply and demand, if no one wants bonds then the yield rates go up to entice investors in to get a higher return and vice versa if everyone wants bonds they go down as they have all the investors they need so why pay them more. We have been in very hot market before this selloff with very low interest 1% rates (bond yield rates and interest rates are similarly correlated also). So the average bond investor has been thinking why buy bonds when i can have my money in the stock market and get returns of much more then 1% yield. (If adjusted for inflation your actually getting negative returns) Problem is bonds is government debt which has inflated loads due to stimulus etc and the government needs people to buy these bonds to raise money, they had the worst bond auction not that long ago which meant no one is buying bond at all!! So what happens, the bond yields rose sharply as no one is buying them, to encourage investors in. There are other reasons for investors not buying bonds, such as additional stimulus, this will increase the debt by even more so bond investors are thinking they will get a better deal if they hold off for even longer for yield rates to increase. So what happens if no one buys bonds, the government steps in and just prints more money and buy themselves which is creating this inflation scaremongering also. The bond yield of 1.5% is benchmark apparently, if it rises sharply from that it normally causes a negative effect in the growth markets (dunno how true this is). However the government is committed to keeping rates down, so they can cap the rates and just keep printing money to pay their debts. However one day this will end and rates will rise. This bond stuff is theoretical thinking, i cant believe everyone is selling their tech & growth stocks to buy bonds atm. i reckon people are just trimming down their positions and being cash heavy which is accelerating this sell off. When markets start selling off also people start moving their money out of hedge funds and asking them to 'hedge' against this downturn which in turns causes them to liquidate their positions adding to the red in the markets. [link] [comments]  |
| Dividend Stock Carry Forward Trade (yielding ~700% return) Posted: 26 Feb 2021 11:23 AM PST In the spirit of generating tax efficient passive income, I have executed a dividend stock carry forward trade (essentially using margin loans to purchase dividend stocks to make money on the spread). I would like to get this group's opinion on the strategy. Please let me know your honest feedback and any big issues you see with this. So here is the trade:
So here are the pro's and con's of this trade: Pro's
Con's
I would love to hear this group's opinions on this. I used this spreadsheet to run the scenarios. I'm sure I have not thought about all the angles on this. Thank you. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 26 Feb 2021 04:24 PM PST The Food and Drug Administration said Friday evening it will "rapidly work" to authorize the Johnson & Johnson single-shot coronavirus vaccine, shortly after an expert committee unanimously recommended the vaccine. In a statement, the agency said it has notified the company and federal officials involved in vaccine distribution so that they can prepare to ship the vaccine shortly. The FDA may issue an emergency use authorization as soon as Saturday, with the first few million doses — of a shot that is relatively simple to store, handle and administer — distributed next week. Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/02/26/johnson-and-johnson-vaccine-fda/%3foutputType=amp [link] [comments]  |
| My thesis on the Market. A Bull gone bearish (in the short term) Posted: 27 Feb 2021 12:31 AM PST The Endgame of the US I hate being a bear, but I have been calling this since last year. I don't have a degree in finance, nor any real world experience working at any institution. But I use data, deductions, patterns and correlations to draw my predictions for whatever I think about. I've been predicting a massive fall since March of last year. When I saw the fed stimulus, it only confirmed to me that the damage was done. A plethora of factors go into my deductions. I won't go too deep into it, as I can write over a page about each reason and the chain of effects, but I want to rattle them off and name a few. Thanks to Jake Tran for the charts
Nearly 40% of all circulating USD was printed in the last 12 months ALONE
(I want to also point out that from 2009 to 2015, the fed kept the rate at 0.5%. The market was well, increasing it would crucify the fed though. This led to opulence in the market) As people begin to borrow less, less circulates. No new money into the market means people don't see their incomes as high as they were. Stocks wont grow as much as they did, and people who get nervous begin to sell. Then the effect cascades and you get a stock market crash. Remember because one person has less spending, the next has less income. This is not isolated-it's all connected.
Now for a couple of rapid fire points -The govt 7 year auction being amiss. This is basically a time the govt gets people together to buy their bonds - a place where there weren't many people interested in buying. To attract buyers, they pump the 10 yr bond interest. 10 yr bonds raising like crazy, potentially signaling dangerous inflation. These are tied to 30 yr mortgage rates, which also go up. As mortgage rates go up, less Americans are interested in opening mortgages on homes. With a booming real estate, this could very well mean a significant slowdown of home buyers. Also, the amount of old homes refinancing also decreases. Meaning banks need to wait longer to finally close out their investments. The duration of mortgage backed bonds goes up. To counter this they sell long-dated treasury bonds, increasing the yield to get buyers and the cycle ping pongs until...you get it -We have a reduced economic strength. Weaker workforce, reduced stream of goods and services. Yet stocks were going up. -The debt to pay for this growth is high again. Again, this is due to LOANS BEING RAMPANT! Just like in the 1920s and 2008. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/private-debt-to-gdp -Stocks are trading at an average of 40 times their earnings. Stocks usually see 16 times earnings. The only other times this happened, the 20's, 2000s and 2008, we saw pullbacks. https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio -We are seeing an increase in political tensions (populism index), and the income ability for the top 0.1% is similar to that of the wealth of the bottom 90%. This is something we haven't seen before, only once in the 30s. Social unrest from populism is not good for the economy. TLDR: Read the bold [link] [comments]  |
| Criteo (CRTO) – Why one of the biggest adtech players is also the most undervalued. Posted: 27 Feb 2021 01:28 AM PST This would be a pretty long read so I put TLDR in the top. TLDR: Criteo has massive upside potential from its New Solutions, suggesting 25-200% upside from this business alone (TP $42-$96). Criteo is a personalized retargeting company that works with internet retailers to serve personalized online display advertisements to consumers who have previously visited the advertiser's website. The aim is to help drive potential customers back to the advertiser's website. The company currently operates in a total of 30 markets around the world and is headquartered in Paris, France. The company employs 2700 employees which makes it the biggest advertisement tech company in terms of personnel size, ahead of The Trade Desk of 1200 employees. I believe the company is very undervalued due to the market underappreciating Criteo's massive potential in grabbing the latest trend in advertisement tech industry and overestimating Criteo's reliance on third party cookies for their retargeting business, hence valuing them as a dying company. Criteo is currently valued at $2B or 3x TTM gross profit – I use gross profit because of acquisition cost (TAC) eat up most of ad tech revenues and make it apple to apple with competitors (TTD 55x, MGNI 50x, ACUIF 20x, PUBM 30x). I believe Criteo deserves higher multiple as the company will likely pull off a turnaround in rapidly growing areas. Criteo has the financial capability to invest in high growth areas with its very healthy balance sheet ($530mill cash, including revolving credit of up to $960mill) and solid margin/cash flow generation from its retargeting business. Before I talk about the potential of Criteo, I would like to take you through why Criteo had been punished in the past and had not performed well in 2020 compared their adtech peers: Past Concerns: Fraudulent Allegation: There was an allegation to the company by SteelHouse, a competitor, that they had fraudulent ads and charged their customers on transactions that might not come from Criteo's service back in 2016. Intelligent Tracking Prevention: Criteo was reliant on third party cookies to perform its service. Back in 2017, Apple started rolling out new Intelligent Tracking Prevention (ITP) technology for its iOS platform and Safari Web browser. Travel and Leisure Pullback: During Covid, Criteo was hit by the spending reduction from travel/leisure retaileers, which likely will continue until 1H 2021. This situation made Criteo's growth in new areas not reflected in the overall performance. Privacy Issue: Privacy issue is becoming more prevalent around the world especially in Europe and Apple making user tracking even harder with the roll out of iOS 14. Even though the reasons above are pretty justified during their period, Criteo has come a long way to not only tackle the problems but also strengthened their inner capabilities to compete for the higher growth segment of internet advertisement. Criteo has extensive shoppers' data and deep client base that it could leverage to turn Criteo into a juggernaut in any segment of advertisement tech industry. Just to give some context of how extensive Criteo's access to retailers and shoppers: Competitive Advantage Access to Retailers and Publishers: Criteo has exclusive access to large retailers (Costco, Best Buy, Target, ASDA, etc - internet platform of large offline retailers outside Amazon/other ecommerce) and premium access to 5,000 publishers (NBC, WSJ, Forbes, etc - news outlets, magazines) around the world. High Retention Rate: Criteo is currently working with over 21,000 clients, including some of the largest ecommerce companies around the world. The company continued to enjoy over 90% retention rate among its clients, highlighting the trust that Criteo keeps even with the growing privacy concerns. Shopper's Data: Criteo aggregates $2.5B daily online sales across 4B SKU, the largest commerce dataset among independent ad tech. To put $2.5B daily transaction into perspective, it's bigger than Amazon's (online) and Walmart's (offline) daily revenue. This ecosystem helps Criteo to add more value to their individual retailer clients that has much smaller transaction data, creating a sticky network effect with the clients. Non-Cookie Identifier: Criteo could match up to 2.5B internet users with non-cookie identifiers which would be incredibly useful in a cookie-less world that we are heading into. To put 2.5B into perspective, that's almost the same number of users of Facebook. Criteo is leading the next generation of identifier technology as it partners with The Trade Desk in developing UID 2.0, open sourced identity framework dedicated to digital advertising and respectful users' privacy. With the above competitive advantage, the company is aggressively pursuing other growth areas outside retargeting which also expands Criteo's Target Addressable Market (TAM). Advertisement Tech industry is poised to enjoy higher growth because of the following reasons: Industry Trends Ecommerce Boom: According to GroupM, global retail ecommerce (excluding food and delivery services) amounted to close to $4 trillion in 2020 or 17% of global retail sales in 2020 and is forecast to represent 25% by 2024, or $7 trillion. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the boom of ecommerce, and saw brands and retailers rapidly transform their ecommerce presence, and gain share from ecommerce giants. With lockdown restrictions imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. online product searches on retailers' websites in the open Internet increased by 21 percentage points to close to 30% of total shares, while the share of searches on Amazon properties declined from 66% to 43%. The additional activities in open internet commerce is incredibly beneficial for Criteo. Digital Marketing Shift: Taking advantage of this surge in ecommerce, brands accelerate the shift of their trade marketing budgets to online. Digital trade marketing already exceeded $23 billion in global spend in 2020, after growing by an average 82% each year since 2016. Dependence on Adtech Players: In today's highly competitive environment, commerce companies and consumer brands increasingly focus on profitably reaching, engaging and converting consumers. They increasingly look at diversifying their significant reliance on walled-garden digital advertising partners. On the other hand, consumers' shopping journeys have become increasingly fragmented between various websites, apps, devices, and physical stores. Consumers' time is increasingly spent online, creating a new environment for advertising, such as Connected TV. The ability for publishers, retailers, brands and agencies to identify users, given restrictions in some environments, to create and monetize audiences, and to drive sales and customer loyalty, today relies on having the right technology partner, able to activate the right data in an efficient way and to measure results in a transparent way across channels. Criteo's management estimates that commerces' digital marketing and monetization services spending on the open internet that could captured by Criteo's current product offering (mostly Criteo's New Solutions outside Retargeting) represents $61B opportunity. Note that this opportunity is growing incredibly fast, while Criteo has only captured very small slice due to Criteo's product is very new to the market. With Criteo's scale and capabilities, the company could capture much bigger portion of total spending. Criteo is currently focusing on its New Solutions, which is growing at 30-100% per annum (currently represent 20% of Criteo's total ex-TAC revenue, $120m per annum). If Criteo's New Solutions enjoy industry's multiples, it could be valued between $2.5B-$6B, suggesting 25%-200% higher than current Criteo's valuations. Note that the rest of industry doesn't have the same scale as Criteo, except The Trade Desk. Criteo's New Solutions Retail Media (53% Growth in 2020): Criteo Retail Media is a particularly differentiated offering in the marketplace and offers significant growth opportunities for the company. Criteo will continue to roll out the Retail Media Platform to new markets and move all Retail Media campaigns to the platform, making the digital stores of large retailers a key advertising channel to generate high gross margin revenue from consumer brands. In addition, Criteo intends to grow the number of retailers they work with in the U.S. and Europe, deepen their share of wallets with existing retailer and brand customers, accelerate their geographic expansion in Europe and enter new markets in the APAC region, grow their offsite advertising capabilities for brands across our premium publisher network on the open Internet, potentially enter Retail Media for retailer marketplaces, bring more commerce insights to brands as a key value-added service and provide brands with an integrated view on the Retail Media spend on Walled Garden retailers. Brand awareness: Criteo is extending its offering to allow for more brand awareness campaigns for both brands and retailers on the open Internet, including in video formats and through the Connected TV channel. CTV is very new to Criteo, hence the impact might not be seen yet. Considering Criteo's scale, I believe Criteo could be a juggernaut in this space. Audience Targeting (32% Growth in 2020)****: Criteo already addresses customer acquisition as a marketing objective and intend to continue growing it, along with similar use cases building on audiences based on its shopper data. In addition, it is investing resources in enhancing the efficacy and impact of cohort advertising on its ecosystem and help shape the end solution which will replace third-party cookies in the Google Chrome browser environment. Contextual advertising: Criteo is also developing new solutions for contextual advertising to accompany its clients in the fast-changing identity landscape. Its approach to contextual advertising is different from what currently exists in the market as it is using first-party data to add a commerce "signature" to the content consumers are reading and watching across the Open Internet. This enables Criteo to go beyond traditional contextual inferences of interest and intent to indicate what combinations of content are actually driving purchases. Omnichannel (118% Growth in 2020): Within Criteo Marketing Solutions, it's also growing its Omnichannel capabilities. A large portion of its commerce client base operates physical stores and still generates a significant percentage of their sales from these stores. While retailers extract massive amounts of sales data from their physical stores, they often lack the sophisticated technology necessary to activate this dataset for sales generation, both online and offline. As a result, retailers are increasingly interested in omnichannel advertising solutions that allow them to target their customers everywhere and bridge the gap between online and offline. Omnichannel is one of the fastest-growing opportunities for Criteo. Criteo will further expand its solutions for omnichannel advertising, including by feeding its clients' offline CRM data into Criteo's Identity Graph, in order to further grow the match rate of offline consumers with their online profile. The performance of Criteo's New Solutions in achieving higher that industry average growth in 2020 proves the company's capability to succeed in high growth areas. On top of the above areas, Criteo continues to invest in newer solutions to continue adding values to its clients and expand its competitive moat such as social/search advertisement, AI-powered insights and analytics for retailers, 1P media network. Risks Privacy Issue: Even though Criteo is working on UID 2.0 with The Trade Desk, this might not work as well as users' cookies hence might not be accepted by the wider industry. Personally, I'm very optimistic with UID 2.0 as it would be the best in class in the industry. Retargeting Phasing Out: Criteo still enjoys most of its revenue from retargeting advertisement. Retargeting has been growing very slowly and tend to decline due to privacy issues for the past few years. I would think UID 2.0 could revive this segment, the return of leisure/travel industry could also provide more cash flows for the company. Technology: Criteo being new to high growth areas might give them some headwinds from competitors who are already in the space. To me, Criteo has the financial capability to compete in the high growth space from its healthy balance sheet/stable cash flows from retargeting. The high growth achieved in the New Solutions business should be a solid proof. Catalyst There are rumors that Criteo might be an acquisition target due to its attractive valuations and its access to wealth of data that is an envy in the industry. There's no clear details of who would be the potential acquirer, I would presume it would be TTD/Shopify who has big enough scale to gulp the firm. Criteo also has buyback program of up to $100 mill in 2021 (5% of current market cap), up from $30 mill last year. Gotham City Research gives TP of $60-120 (80%-260% upside), note that the same firm gave a short recommendation back in 2017 with TP of $12.5. In this environment where market is paying huge premiums for growth, I think Criteo is offering substantial value at a discount. I personally hold shares and some call options in the company as I believe Criteo offers attractive risk/return opportunity. Please feel free to criticize and leave your thoughts, it's very much appreciated. [link] [comments]  |
| What Undervalued stocks Are You Considering or Buying Given That The Market Has Been A Bit Red Posted: 26 Feb 2021 02:25 PM PST I have my eyes on a few stocks and I have averaged down with one stock. I plan to hold stocks for years and I am not looking for a quick buy and sell strategy. I have been very interested in lower cap stocks, but I definitely want to find any types of stocks. As the title says, since a lot of stocks have gone down these past two weeks, what stocks are on your watchlist or what have you bought? Companies that have caught my initial attention were: Alarm Holdings Haivision Systems MTBC Mercury Systems ACMR Research Luna Innovations [link] [comments]  |
| BEE VECTORING TECHNOLOGY A PROMISING AND HEALTHY INVESTMENT Posted: 27 Feb 2021 02:29 AM PST Now it is time to help our precious planet Earth and give attention to BEE VECTORING TECHNOLOGY. This five-year old company wants to win against those incentivising the application of pesticides (short intro: pesticides is known for destroying our soil which is essential for farming, lead to mass exinction of insects /animals indirectly and many poor farmers have already died because of pesticides use!!) It is a startling phenomenon that cannot be ignored! Do you know that MONSANTO won so many litigations because environmentalists and impoverished farmers do not have the financial resource to win costly litigations? IT IS TIME FOR JUSTICE. Let's FIGHT AGAINST GOLIATH : MONSANTO and other pesticides producers. A young but successful Canadian start-up BEE VECTORING TECHNOLOGIES has found an environmental friendly solution that is capable of destroying Monsanto business model (Monsanto is now a subsidiary of Bayer) and successfully penetrating a $250bn market. Check out the homepage: http://www.beevt.com/ The shares of BEVVF cost around $0.30. Recently, Mexico announced to impose laws to ban Glyhopsate for Agribusiness: https://www.commondreams.org/views/2021/02/24/mexicos-decision-ban-glyphosate-has-rocked-agribusiness-world Another milestone of BEEVF is the collaboration of two world's largest berry growers in California, US!! FYI: I consider this as a long-term investment and spread the word for a better planet. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 26 Feb 2021 08:27 PM PST • Been a stanch treasury bear since April - see previous posts/comments for verification • Recent indications 10Y futures may have CTAs close short positioning, thus selling of note futures coming to an end (yields peaked) - I would not rely on this to be a sustainable indicator of trend reversal; may indeed be true, but calling the end of this yield rally is a bit premature on this single factor. • For a long-term approach, it is my view that to value to 10Y yield requires a denominator: annualized savings (DPI less PCE) as a percentage of monetary base. The 10-year median of the 10-year nominal yield and Annualized Savings to Monetary Base Ratio has a R2=0.98. See link. Chart implies a fair value in/around 10Y of 2.25-2.75%, but this number is a moving target. • The Fed may enact YCC, however current developed Central Bank enacting this policy are looking to struggle with managing their curves given recent reports (Australia, Japan) • More fixated on US corporate credit at the moment than the treasury yield curve - HY vs IG OAS, Single-A vs CCC and below total return, etc - all reinforce strength in credit markets, but when/where might that end given treasuries and curve? [link] [comments]  |
| Where to put money during inflationary times Posted: 26 Feb 2021 02:01 PM PST From my minor understanding, during an inflationary time period bond yields go up as people demand a lower price for fixed income assets like bonds especially the 30-year treasury bond which is what. This effectively raises the risk free interest rate which should lower the price of stocks in a CAPM world. So one would be forced to keep cash, but inflation renders this worth less as well. TIPS are the only vehicle that I can think of that would appreciate over time, but this is determined by CPI which may not even be an accurate measure of inflation if the government has a perverse incentive to report lower than required inflation as this would result in a smaller debt servicing by the government. What would the ideal asset allocation be during an inflationary time period then, if along this line of reasoning cash bonds and stocks wouldnt be ideal? [link] [comments]  |
| I'm surprised to see TIPS ETFs dropping this month as the market admits to expecting more inflation. Posted: 26 Feb 2021 07:30 AM PST I was really surprised to see how my TIPS ("Treasury inflation protected securities") ETF (SCHP, in particular) is performing. Not well! Which really confuses me. It did great all year until the market started getting scared about inflation this month. Why are TIPS selling off!? Shouldn't demand for TIPS grow as inflation expectations grow? I had thought that, unlike treasuries, the nominal value can grow in line with the nominal yield (which is indexed to CPI.) But I must not be understanding them correctly. Why aren't more people buying TIPS in response to increased inflation expectations? It's not cause they're buying standard treasuries... those are also being dumped. [link] [comments]  |
| Why IMMR is Going to See Huge Growth Soon (IMMR DD) Posted: 26 Feb 2021 05:25 PM PST This is gonna be a long one, so buckle up. (TLDR at the bottom) I'm gonna break this post down into sections: 1. What does IMMR do? 2. Earnings Report Next Week/Playstation Deal 3. Microsoft Deal Likely Coming Soon 4. Alternate & Future Uses for Their Tech 5. TLDR & Positions
Immersion Corporation (IMMR) is a haptic feedback technology company. This means they make sensory/vibration feedback technology that can be used in a variety of different products in a variety of different industries. The majority of their revenue comes from video game controllers. This includes deals with Sony and Nintendo, in which they make money on every PS5 or Nintendo Switch controller sold. They also work with a large range of other companies, and will expand their reach in other industries as haptic feedback becomes more common.
Immersion announces Q4 results on Thursday March 4, and I think this will be a huge catalyst. As mentioned earlier, Immersion makes money for every PS5 and Nintendo Switch controller sold. The PS5 launch was the largest console launch ever, as Sony sold 4.5 million consoles in just November and December. In addition to the PS5, the Nintendo Switch saw tremendous sales this year, selling over 7 million units in just September through December. Anyone who has owned a Playstation or Xbox before knows that over the course of using the console, you will most likely need to buy at least 2-3 controllers, as they tend to break easily. This will result in strong revenue numbers for Immersion not only this quarter, but in the future as well.
In November 2020, the Head of Xbox and Vice President of Gaming at Microsoft said that he "applauds what [Sony] did with the controller", and also said that "all of us in the industry should learn from each other and the innovation we all push on." He was also asked whether Microsoft would be changing it's controllers more in the future, and he responded by saying they could integrate more haptic feedback in the future. I think this is a strong hint at collaborating with Immersion in the future, and I think haptic feedback will be an industry standard in gaming rather soon.
Haptic feedback can be implemented in a variety of different products. In this section I will mention all the different products Immersion's haptic feedback technology is currently used in, and several other products that could be using it in the future. Immersion is currently partnered with automotive companies, which use their haptic tech in touch screen displays, touch controls, gas pedals, and several other features. Immersion's haptic feedback technology can be used on any touchscreen, to mimic mechanical buttons or dials. Immersion is used in cell phones for gaming, touch messages, timer/alarm effects, simulating weather/nature experiences, wallpaper textures, urgent and expressive messaging, and many other features. Other uses include VR gaming systems, home appliances, and home smart panels for comfort settings. View all their current use cases here Another future use could be in the steering wheels of cars. A tesla patent from last year showed they plan on using haptic feedback in their steering wheels, and other companies may follow. TLDR: IMMR makes haptic feedback tech, used in PS5 and Nintendo Switch controllers. Earnings will make stock go way up next week. In the future their tech will be used way more often in other products like phones, cars, appliances. Positions: 100 shares, and August calls at $10 strike. Disclaimer: Not a financial advisor, don't buy or sell stocks solely on this post, do your own research before buying or selling a stock. [link] [comments]  |
| Forecasting using basic methods Posted: 26 Feb 2021 06:50 PM PST I've always done this formula to give an idea of what a stock may do in future provided the same performance from the company. The more I read I don't find that anyone recommends doing it this way so I'm wondering if maybe I should ditch using it though it has worked out great...just thinking about it. This is it...
Of course I consider what this all reveals in the context of industry, startup vs established company, etc. But I found its a good way to get a range of what might happen. Any critiques on going about it this way? Its kind of similar to the owners earnings projections that buffet used but not exactly. [link] [comments]  |
| Self-driving truck technology startup TuSimple nears stock offering Posted: 26 Feb 2021 03:29 PM PST Self-driving truck technology developer TuSimple expects to file a prospectus to sell public stock as soon as next week, according to published reports and people close to the situation. The company, with offices in San Diego and Beijing, has 50 Level 4 autonomous trucks running paid freight in Southwestern states. Those trucks still have a safety driver who can assume control of the vehicle if necessary. TuSimple is partnering with Navistar International Corp. (NYSE: NAV) to sell a long-haul autonomous truck by 2024. TuSimple filed a confidential s-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission in December. If the SEC completes its reviews, the prospectus could be made public by next Wednesday. That would allow pricing of the stock and share sales by the end of March. The filing date could slip, according to people close to the situation who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment. A TuSimple spokeswoman declined comment Thursday. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 26 Feb 2021 08:46 AM PST Hey all, I have a somewhat positive view on Nokia slowly turning things around - I just found an interesting play i thought i'd share. I looked at the Jan 2023 calls and saw that I could do a call spread of buying the $2 strike and selling the $7 strike. My net cost was $1.65 stock currently trades at ~$4 (a few pennies under) my breakeven is $2+$1.65 prem = $3.65 (plus commission cost) - i.e. I break even at a ~8.75% LOSS on the stock with max upside being $3.35 ($7 call - $3.65 Breakeven) It is a lower capital commitment then just being outright long the stock [link] [comments]  |
| Inverse ETFs are a good way to hedge your portfolio Posted: 26 Feb 2021 10:35 AM PST As the stock market has been going down a little recently, I've been looking into ways to reduce the losses of my portfolio. I don't have enough capital to sell calls on most of my stocks which would've been my preferred method and I'm not using put options because buying a contract far enough out to cover when this correction could happen was more than I wanted to be hedged. The strategy I decided on was using inverse ETFs. Inverse ETFs are designed to perform as the inverse of an index or benchmark it tracks. You can also find leveraged inverse ETFs that are 2x or 3x so if SPY goes down 1% they will go up 2% or 3%. I decided I wasn't willing to bet too big on a market correction so I stuck with just 1x inverse ETFs. I chose SH the inverse of SPY and PSQ the inverse of QQQ to put money into. I plan on holding these just over the short term so maybe a few weeks to a month or so. Inverse ETFs are not something you just buy and hold as they will go down over time and since it will be a short-term trade, I've done this in a retirement account. One thing I've realized that happens from owning inverse ETF shares is that I actually look forward to red days as I'm making a little extra money plus I get to buy the dip. If the market never really dips down, I don't have enough in them that the loss would have much impact on the overall portfolio. I would definitely recommend looking into inverse ETFs if you are looking for a way to hedge some money however it still is a risk you could lose a lot or all the money you put in them so they will need to be actively managed. Interested to hear what are other people's experiences with inverse ETFs are. [link] [comments]  |
| Best Covered Call Stocks For Monthly Income Posted: 26 Feb 2021 11:24 AM PST Hello everyone! First post here but long time lurker. I wanted to gauge everyone's opinions and seek out new ideas for selling covered calls. Most of my investments are in diversified funds but I wanted to explore selling some covered calls on so high producing stocks. I am fortunate enough to be able to afford 100 Tesla and that seems to be the go to for selling CCS, but wanted to see what other options people had. Ideally I'd like to generate $2,000 a month off the asset. I've also looked at Apple and NVDA but Tesla seems to be the highest producing. Thank you for sharing your thoughts! [link] [comments]  |
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