Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Jan 01, 2021 |
- r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Jan 01, 2021
- Anyone want to play the $1000 to $1 million game with me?
- WSE:CDR CD Projekt Red Analysis. Is it undervalued after the 37% drop due to Cyberpunk problems on consoles?
- Apple iPhone 12 Pro Demand Strong, Says J.P. Morgan
- My Custom Stock Screener Findings
- Georgia Runoff & the Stock Market
- 2020 Round up - Your best and worst trade of the year!
- Moderna
- Royal Dutch Shell
- Easiest way to invest in ARKG for European investor?
- Which of the ARK ETF’s do you think is best and why?
- Help Choosing my ETFS
- Can someone confirm my line of thinking about my 2 TDAmeritrade accounts? Info in comments.
- Sites/books/podcast etc.
- Which stocks are going to be go holds for the next 3 to 6 months?
- Looking for high risk long term hold
- High confidence - Nio
- An arms race for giant wind turbines?
- What's your largest position at the moment?
- Recent UPST IPO seems under reported
- Top Stock Picks For 2021?
- Anyone else a bag holder of NKLA? Make me feel better with your stories of NKLA
- Advise on BNTX...
- Any reason not to switch to QQQM?
- I've been bored lately, and want to try swing trading with maybe just 1 company. What to look for and any suggestions?
| r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Jan 01, 2021 Posted: 01 Jan 2021 12:00 AM PST This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on fundamentals, but if fundamentals aren't your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against fundamentals here and not in the current post. Some helpful day to day links, including news:
Most fundamentals are updated every 3 months due to the fact that corporations release earnings reports every quarter, so traders are always speculating at what those earnings will say, and investors may change the size of their holdings based on those reports. Expect a lot of volatility around earnings, but it usually doesn't matter if you're holding long term, but keep in mind the importance of earnings reports because a trend of declining earnings or a decline in some other fundamental will drive the stock down over the long term as well. See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki: If you have a basic question, for example "what is EBITDA," then google "investopedia EBITDA" and click the Investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned. Useful links:
See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. [link] [comments]  |
| Anyone want to play the $1000 to $1 million game with me? Posted: 31 Dec 2020 06:28 PM PST I recall reading an article years ago about how if you start with $1000 and make 20% in each trade, it only takes something like 45 trades to make it to $1 million. Anyone want to start in 2021 with me (or have any suggestions for my first stock)? And no I aint doing any penny stocks edit: apparently 37 trades only! It gets even easier Edit: thinking of DKNG if it falls below $40, CRM at the current price, or PLTR at 20-21 Edit 3: New sub /r/1kto1mil --> feel free to join the journey that will likely end up in flames but will be fun. Also the goal is not to do this just in 2021, its a journey that will take multiple years! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 01 Jan 2021 10:09 AM PST Background CD PROJEKT S.A. (WSE: CDR) is a Polish video game developer, publisher and distributor based in Warsaw. CD Projekt Red, best known for The Witcher series and the recent release of Cyberpunk 2077. The CD PROJEKT Group currently conducts operating activities in two key segments: CD PROJEKT RED and GOG.com (originally as Good Old Games). Hierarchy CD PROJEKT Capital Group is headed by CD PROJEKT S.A. A holding company which has five subsidiaries. The subsidiaries are: - GOG sp. z o.o (Similar to Steam, it is a distributor of games). - CD PROJEKT Inc (Where all the game development happens) - CD PROJEKT Co. Ltd (Only for selling games in China) - Spokko sp. z o.o. (The mobile arm of CD projekt red) - CD PROJEKT RED STORE sp. z o.o. (A new store of merchandise launched by the company) GOG - Who have just released a 2.0 version called GOG Galaxy which subsequently entered its beta testing phase. The goal of the application is to enable players to integrate all their game shelves into a single library, to communicate with friends and to track their progress regardless of their preferred gaming platforms. Its functionality will span PC and console platforms, extending beyond the GOG.com user base. It's main selling points are that is uses the cloud, is DRM free and has a ton of old games such as Diablo, Destroy all humans etc on it's platform that Steam doesn't. Steam is the single biggest distributor of digital games for PC, it's been dominating the market for years and has way more games than GOG does due to this. Especially as a lot of publishers do not want to host their games DRM free which GOG requires. It's very difficult to predict the future of GOG because Steam is a private company so we don't have access to it's numbers. However the big benefit of GOG is that CD Projekt Red can sell and promote it's games directly through their own platform. The benefit being a much bigger margin on each game sold as 100% of the profit goes to CD Projekt red if a game is sold on GOG, whereas on Steam they take a 20% cut for the first $50m revenue of Cyberpunk. One third of all digital PC preorders for Cyberpunk 2077 sales were on GOG which is an incredible achievement by CD Projekt Red considering Steams dominance. This is probably the reason why CD Projekt Red has such a huge operating margin from 30% to 50% in recent years. They are involved in the entire process of making and selling their games. GWENT: The Witcher Card Game is the first multiplayer game developed by the CD PROJEKT Group. It has been a hugely successful and highly rated game (which is impressive considering it's their first mobile multiplayer game). The reason why this game is important for the future is because multiplayer is the key to the cash machine which is microtransactions which the card game has. Cyberpunk was released recently and had been in development for many years. It's sold very well but less than analysts expectations and there has been serious problems on console versions which led to sony removing cyberpunk 2077 from it's PS store for the time being. This caused the companies stock to plummet 37% recently. I'll get into the numbers at the bottom for my reverse DCF that I did. Cyberpunk Online multiplayer will definitely come at some point within the next couple of years. The reason being is that after GTA Onlines unbelievable success and constant revenue generation for Take Two then it makes sense to try and replicate this with Cyberpunk. This multiplayer will feature microtransactions and in my opinion is the way Cd Projekt red can really make the big $$ in the future. Microtransactions for cosmetic items like in game skins or packs (like fifa) are easy to implement and have huge operating margins as they take 0 CAPEX and virtually no time to implement due to being some simple code and designs. Here's a quote taken from their 2019 Annual Report for Key Sources Of Revenue:
Risks There are some huge risks with cd projekt red, here are the main ones: - Neither IP, The Wither or Cyberpunk 2077 is owned by CD Projekt since the two series are based on a series of novels and a tabletop RPG respectively. So they would need permission from these license holders (the creators I think) to be able to do other spin offs for them. While it is likely the permission will be given due to the huge successes it's not a certainty. - CD Projekt Red relies on a couple of block busters to make 80% of their revenue and earnings. The Witcher 3 and Cyberpunk 2077 are the only revenue generates the company has (apart from GOG). If CD Projekt red messes up either of these huge IP's in the future (or like they just have with the console versions of Cyberpunk) then you can expect a huge and sudden stock price drop and potential damage to the company. - Because of the few but huge releases, CD Projekt Red has very volatile earnings and revenue making it very hard to predict, similar to Take Two Interactive. You can see in the following picture how sales drop a lot after release. Co-Founders and Board History CD PROJEKT has a very long tenure of the management board, all at least 10 years and 3/5 of them 20+ years. Insiders have a significant stake in CD Projekt red's stock, including the joint CEO's. This is great news for shareholders as the insiders have a big incentive to make the company work as they have big stakes in the company. Company shareholding structure is made up of the following people: - Marcin Iwinski (Joint CEO & Co-Founder) is 13% - Michal Kicinski (Ex Joint CEO & Co-Founder) is 11% - Piotr Nielubowicz (VP, CFO) is 6% - Adam Kicinski (President & Joint CEO) is 3% Incentives for management:
These are poor goals in my opinion. Net earnings can be enhanced by poor acquisitions and stock price is meaningless and should be ignored in incentives as it can produce short term motivations. Management hit the majority of their goals for year 2019.Their goals going forward:
These goals seem too high in my opinion. Especially after their cyberpunk flop on consoles but it's still possible. Competitors CD PROJEKT is well known for its biggest sales on The Witcher and Cyberpunk 2077 hype. However, there's a lot of gaming industries that compete with one another. Thus comparing its competitors such as Take-Two Interactive, Electronic Arts (EA), Activision Blizzard has more diversified games and games produced more frequently compared to CD PROJEKT RED. CD Projekt Red's risk in terms of competitors is releasing a big game that clashes with another big game such as GTA 6. However all gaming companies have a good tailwind right now due to COVID restrictions and microtransactions are lifting all gaming companies margins. A rising tide lifts all boats. Industry
You can see from the above as to why CD projekt red is branching out to smartphones and China. Reverse DCF Here's the original post and reverse DCF because r/stocks does not allow images: https://www.reddit.com/r/UndervaluedStonks/comments/kofhq7/wsecdr_cd_projekt_red_analysis_is_it_undervalued/ Conclusion It's been extremely difficult to project CD Projekt Red and even after doing research I am still very unsure on a bunch of variables. In my opinion the markets assumptions of CD Projekt Red's growth and margins as shown above in the reverse DCF is perfectly acceptable to me. Therefore I would not buy their shares unless they dipped to around 210 zloty~ as I don't think they are undervalued yet. given the risks. Please comment if you see anything wrong with my valuation. This was a very difficult one for me. Thanks [link] [comments]  |
| Apple iPhone 12 Pro Demand Strong, Says J.P. Morgan Posted: 01 Jan 2021 07:09 AM PST https://www.thestreet.com/investing/apple-iphone12-demand-strong-jp-morgan "Even as iPhone 12 Pro lead times have moderated on the same lines as other SKUs, aggregate lead times for 12 Pro still remain quite robust and above 20 days, implying continued robust demand," Chatterjee wrote in a commentary cited by Seeking Alpha. "Our Asia supply chain checks for iPhones continue to be incrementally bullish around iPhone 12 5G demand and have now exceeded even our bull case scenario for units in FY21," Ives wrote. Apple iPhones took the top nine spots in activations, with last year's iPhone 11 placing first, followed by the iPhone XR, iPhone 12 Pro Max, iPhone 12, iPhone 11 Pro Max, iPhone SE, iPhone 12 Pro, iPhone 8 Plus and iPhone 8. LG's budget K30 placed tenth. [link] [comments]  |
| My Custom Stock Screener Findings Posted: 01 Jan 2021 11:12 AM PST The MetricI recently had an idea for a metric to be used to find hot stocks. I call the metric "Price Elasticity" and it is comprised of two numbers: upturn elasticity and downturn elasticity.
Using these numbers and a few additional basic requirements (like positive EPS and at least 31 days of trading history), my screener found 99 stocks out of about 5700 searched that have good to exceptional price elasticities. (the list of these stocks is linked below and also here) What makes for good price elasticity numbers?I made two classifications for stocks with good price elasticity data.
With any stock I want an upturn elasticity > 1, meaning that the stock tends to move higher than the market when the market goes up. The "Irrational" classification gets its name because if a stock's downturn elasticity is negative this means the stock, on average, moves up when the market goes down. So a stock that moves higher than the market when the market goes up and also moves up when the market goes down is classified as "Irrational". These stocks tend to have less trading history and are very volatile. Then there are "Responsible" stocks which like Irrational stocks move higher than the market when the market goes up. Unlike Irrational stocks though, Responsible stocks move lower when the market moves lower. The reason I still consider them good is because their downturn elasticity is <1 and >0, meaning that, while they do move down with the market, they move down to a lesser degree. Some popular stocks picked up by the screener include: AMD, ADSK, ETSY, NFLX, NVDA, SHOP and TSLA. Many of the other stocks have lower market caps and could be interesting value / growth plays given they too made the cut. Link to the 99 stocks found:https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NsbQ42oo6i3kYUWf96Tw5yK3LD04L1CR/view?usp=sharing I have no idea if there is merit to my Price Elasticity metric (or if it has already been "invented") but it was a fun project and the screener found some interesting stocks I would have never discovered otherwise. The validity of the metric is entirely based on the assumption that past trends indicate future performance, and for those looking to beat the market the trends of these 99 stocks should be very appealing. I made the screener using Python3 and TD Ameritrade's API. Of the stocks in that list I am currently holding AMD, CAMT, EPAM, and NLOK. Edit: Happy New Year [link] [comments]  |
| Georgia Runoff & the Stock Market Posted: 01 Jan 2021 10:51 AM PST Is anyone paying attention to the special Senate run-off on January 5? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/georgia-senate-polls/?cid=rrpromo It seems to be a toss-up; I 'm skeptical of putting too much weight in the polls, but I am curious to know, once things are all settled, how you think the market will react. I'm thinking that if the Dems sweep Georgia, we'll see a pump to clean energy, as Democratic Senate control will allow Biden to push his agenda easier. But how will other stocks / market as a whole react? It was my understanding that Wall Street prefers a split government because that will limit any increase in taxes. I hold 70 shares of ICLN ( used to hold more) and thinking about adding up for a potential pump. [link] [comments]  |
| 2020 Round up - Your best and worst trade of the year! Posted: 01 Jan 2021 08:35 AM PST With 2020 over, I wanna know what is your best and worst trade of 2020 were. So basically your absolute best purchase or sell(selling at the right time) and your worst trade(selling too early) or buying something that you regret. I will go first: Best trade - Buying Nio at $21. Worst trade - Selling Enphase at $43. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 01 Jan 2021 12:21 PM PST Hello, Guys. I am pretty new to the stock market, and I made a very bad decision one month ago. I bought Moderna stock almost at its peak. I bought Moderna at 169$ per 1 stock. I know that this decision was very dumb, and that I should've done my research before buying it. Right now I am thinking about selling it at 104$ per 1 share. But this time I have done my research and some sources say that Moderna has the potential to recover. So what are you recommendations on this situation? Edit: Thanks everyone for the advices. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 01 Jan 2021 12:56 PM PST With Shell being an energy company and a solid recovery stock, isn't it worth to buy some shares? Even if it stays around this price for the next year, the 10% dividend yield is very attractive. Was wondering what are your thoughts on this stock and if I should put a good % of my portfolio into it [link] [comments]  |
| Easiest way to invest in ARKG for European investor? Posted: 01 Jan 2021 06:15 AM PST Hi all, I'm a European investor who uses Degiro. I want to invest in ARKG but this isn't available in Europe. I was wondering what the best way to invest in a similar tracker is? Are there any similar ETFs available to Europeans? [link] [comments]  |
| Which of the ARK ETF’s do you think is best and why? Posted: 01 Jan 2021 09:15 AM PST Yes. I am also doing my research but I just want to know the opinion of others who might know more. I want to invest some money for my son so yes this is long term hold. Thanks in advance and happy new year to all. May we all earn more money this year. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 01 Jan 2021 12:53 PM PST Hey guys I'm a pretty new investor, just started a month ago, up about 2k with a small initial investment of 5k, I've been moving most of my profits out of my meme brokerage and slowly building a schwab retirement account that I don't intend to touch for some decades, in this account, I'm focusing on dividends, tech, semiconductors and recently debating to invest in some ETFs for the long-term. I really love to invest in tech, robotics, AI, renewable etc. My choices (that I've found so far are ) MOON, HACK, BOTZ. If anybody has some insight on these or potentially some other ETFs that hover around these sectors I would be very grateful! TLDR: MOON, HACK, BOTZ or ??? [link] [comments]  |
| Can someone confirm my line of thinking about my 2 TDAmeritrade accounts? Info in comments. Posted: 01 Jan 2021 10:51 AM PST I have 2 accounts at TD Ameritrade. One is a regular trading account I opened in 2007. The other is a Roth IRA I opened in 2015. I will turn 61 in April. The regular trading account I use to "play" with stocks. I only have $5K in it. The Roth IRA account is obviously my retirement account. I am thinking it makes more sense to put money in the Roth IRA only since I can always withdraw contributions freely and gains and dividends are tax free. My current financial situation allows me to contribute about $5K annually into the Roth IRA. So again, I am thinking, say I have $1K to do something with. I should put it in the IRA so that I can make sure I am working towards the max annual contribution. And putting it in the Roth IRA rather than the regular trading acct, the tax implications are more advantageous. I realize than any thing over the max (including the catch up) would have to go in to the regular trading acct. So my thinking is that there is no real reason to put money in the regular acct unless I am going to exceed the max contribution amount. Even if it is to buy a stock that may be risky, speculative, a brother in law tip, etc... I apologize for the length and rambling of this post but I think I have given enough info to get someone else's opinion. Thank you. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 01 Jan 2021 07:32 AM PST Hi everyone! Since a month or so I started to invest in Etoro by copying people, but I also want to learn invest myself. I understand that I nead to learn and collect information. So thats the reason why I made this post. Share your favorite site/book/podcast or anything else that is handy for investors! Thank you! [link] [comments]  |
| Which stocks are going to be go holds for the next 3 to 6 months? Posted: 01 Jan 2021 08:14 AM PST I'm looking into buying some stocks to add to my portfolio but it's possible I may need the funds in 6 months or so... with the start of the new year promising vaccines rolling out and likely a democratically controlled government which stocks are going to be good holdings to have? [link] [comments]  |
| Looking for high risk long term hold Posted: 01 Jan 2021 07:33 AM PST Hi - I save 400$ every pay check for my kids to give as a gift when they get way older (4&6 now). I'm looking for a solid high risk mutual or etf to continue to add into for the next 15-20 years. Any recommendations are appreciated. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Dec 2020 09:17 PM PST According to a JD power survey, Tesla was ranked the second-best battery-powered electric vehicle after NIO Nio is not only superior in build quality, but also more affordable than it's top competitor, Tesla. Feeling really good about my positions atm :) [link] [comments]  |
| An arms race for giant wind turbines? Posted: 01 Jan 2021 10:06 AM PST I've been hunting for green energy companies with a lot of liquid capital and good fiscal management. Since the speed of adoption is picking up. But... do you invest in G&E? A Monster Wind Turbine Is Upending an Industry - New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/business/GE-wind-turbine.html "The prototype is the first of a generation of new machines that are about a third more powerful than the largest already in commercial service. As such, it is changing the business calculations of wind equipment makers, developers and investors." [link] [comments]  |
| What's your largest position at the moment? Posted: 01 Jan 2021 01:49 PM PST What is your largest holding moving into 2021? Include at least 1 individual stock and 1 index fund (MF or ETF). I'm asking because I assume. . . many investors' largest holding will be a company that they are extremely long on, healthy companies, expect high returns, low volatility, all the good things etc. My largest holdings heading in to 2021 are UPS and SWPPX. I expect my largest individual stock holding to change as 2021 unfolds. [link] [comments]  |
| Recent UPST IPO seems under reported Posted: 01 Jan 2021 07:43 AM PST It's an AI cloud based company. They use more metrics than just your credit score to give loans so they can give more loans with the same or less number of defaults as banks. Founded by an ex google employee. Any thoughts on it? Disclosure: I do own 25 shares. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Dec 2020 09:38 PM PST What stocks, etf's, or other investments are you looking to add to your portfolio this year? I recently added DRIV, IWF, and ICLN to my Roth IRA. I am also holding AMZN and AAPL in my investment account. Stay safe and have a good year! [link] [comments]  |
| Anyone else a bag holder of NKLA? Make me feel better with your stories of NKLA Posted: 31 Dec 2020 07:14 PM PST I am stuck with 200 shares now, definitely one of the worst decisions I have made this year. I got caught in the hype and now paying the price. Another cautionary tale of not doing your homework, you get burned. I have now looked into what I invested and pretty disgusted with something that has 0 revenue. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 01 Jan 2021 07:04 AM PST I bought 200 shares of BNTX at an average price of $118.88. (Yes, it would have been nice to get in much earlier, but I missed that boat) All was well, I was up about 12%. Fast forward a few months, the stock is now down 34.95% over the past 30 days, currently trading at $80.99. My initial plan for this stock was long long term. My rationale was:
For me, the big picture looked good. Currently, my thinking is that I should just ride it out long term. Maybe once the administration changes and takes a more aggressive approach to vaccination, people will feel more optimistic. Or, maybe a few years down the road BNTX will be acquired... Part obviously part of me also thinks I should stop the bleeding now before I take a complete bath. Is it possible this can drop further? I don't have a lot of experience with biotechnology stocks. Thanks in advance. [link] [comments]  |
| Any reason not to switch to QQQM? Posted: 01 Jan 2021 06:35 AM PST I'm not a US citizen and live in a tax free country, so the only tax I get hit with is the 30% withholding tax my brokerage automatically deducts. Any reason not to close my QQQ position and buy QQQM with it? This is a long hold account [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 01 Jan 2021 07:24 AM PST I want to try swing trading. Buy 10k worth of stock, sell when up 5%, buy when down 5%. I'd like to find one that's relatively stable, but still have decent swings. Any ideas of tips on swing trading in general? [link] [comments]  |
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