Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- How do I handle jealousy and missed opportunities?
- -140,000:Payrolls drop for the first time since April, unemployment rate steadies at 6.7%
- How do you stay disciplined with your attention when speculative investments are ripping?
- ARKG or ARKK for long term gains?
- GHIV
- Musk says "use Signal". People buy an unrelated stock.
- VALE and TSLA
- Answers to the 10 most asked questions regarding the uranium bull market
- I dug this out of the drawer and thought you young whippersnappers would find this interesting
- Morgan Stanley Boosts Stake In MicroStrategy To 10.9%
- What exactly happens when an stock market bubble "bursts".
- Is interest rate going higher?
- Diversification vs. Hand-picking
- stock ticker app for windows10?
- In the midst of a climax run?
- USA - migrating a tumultuous future.
- Boeing 737 missing after take off in Indonesia
- Beginner scratching his head
- Remember when Cathie Wood made a prediction about TSLA and everyone laughed?
- Margin of Safety vs. Timing the Market
- How to reduce downside risk in a stock without selling?
- What are the Best (paid for or free) sites for tracking Insider/Institutional buying/selling?
- Investing all my current savings as a student into NIO?
- Anybody have any predictions for future catalysts for a stock market correction?
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 09 Jan 2021 02:00 AM PST If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| How do I handle jealousy and missed opportunities? Posted: 08 Jan 2021 08:00 PM PST There's been an influx of successes and high returns posted in this recent market, and whenever I look at these posts, I tend to get upset about missing these opportunities. My heart sinks whenever I see another post about how someone retired early due to an early TSLA stock or how they paid off their mortgage because of BTC or AMZN or whatever. I want to desperately have an opportunity like that. I've been mildly interested in investing for a while, but I'm a poor 19-year-old university student so I have pretty much no stable income and a severe lack of knowledge in investing. I want to invest now because of these posts, but I know I reasonably shouldn't because I'd be investing with my emotions, I only have around $5,000 in my bank account and no stable income is coming in. How do I handle this FOMO and this jealousy? [link] [comments]  |
| -140,000:Payrolls drop for the first time since April, unemployment rate steadies at 6.7% Posted: 08 Jan 2021 05:35 AM PST U.S. job growth turned negative for the first time since April in the final month of 2020, as the pandemic that rocked the economy over the past year dealt yet another blow to the labor market. The Labor Department released its December jobs report Friday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main results from the report, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg: Change in non-farm payrolls: -140,000 vs. +50,000 expected and a revised +336,000 in November Unemployment rate: 6.7% vs. 6.8% expected and 6.7% in November Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: 0.8% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.3% in November Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: 5.1% vs. 4.5% expected and 4.4% in November [link] [comments]  |
| How do you stay disciplined with your attention when speculative investments are ripping? Posted: 08 Jan 2021 11:26 AM PST With TSLA, BTC, and many other small positions in my portfolio becoming substantial positions, I'm finding it increasingly difficult to focus on my day job. Trying to remind myself that consistent income and investments are essential for getting to my retirement number. Investing is not my day job, but after seeing a decade of working get shaved off from gains and a conservative FIRE age of 45 my brain just wants to think about this full-time (despite knowing I've encountered some considerable luck). I keep reminding myself we've just been in one of the best bull runs off all time, but I enjoy reading about technology, markets, etc. and wish I could do this as my primary job. How are others handling this today? How about through the 90's? [link] [comments]  |
| ARKG or ARKK for long term gains? Posted: 08 Jan 2021 11:46 PM PST I'm 24, I live in Arkansas. My expenses are very low (>$500 a month.) I make about $3,500 a month and I am looking into these two ETFs for long term gains. I have about $2000 that I plan on investing Monday, and I also plan to add to these funds* consistently. Possibly a large portion of my monthly income. Which of these two would you guys recommend? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Jan 2021 09:33 PM PST GHIV is a SPAC I think was mentioned on here a few times, but I thought I'd give it another shout out in lieu of some upcoming catalysts. It's merging with UWM, or United Wholesale Mortgage - which is an established company with revenue, something that is not super common with the companies that SPACs merge with.
I am aware that this sub does not like riskier plays like SPACs, but I really do think that UWM is a solid company with established revenue that could be a long term hold. I bought options, but I think the best decision for a long term hold if you believe in this company is shares. POS: 12.5 c 1/15, 10c 1/15 [link] [comments]  |
| Musk says "use Signal". People buy an unrelated stock. Posted: 09 Jan 2021 02:53 AM PST Do you think only stupid people bought the stock by mistake or do you think some people bought it anticipating that others will buy it by mistake? Either way, isn't that proof that people follow Musk blindly? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Jan 2021 06:40 PM PST What're the odds that the nickel mining company that Elon Musk said he would give a 'very big contract to for a very long time' for mining nickel is VALE? Are there other plausible options of company's he could be referring to? I'm curious which company he may have been taking about and VALE was the first to come to mind [link] [comments]  |
| Answers to the 10 most asked questions regarding the uranium bull market Posted: 08 Jan 2021 06:12 AM PST I have to be honest, I didn't expect to make another post so soon, but I have been flooded with messages and comments in the past few days, so I deemed it necessary (oh and also for the people crowning me things like the 'uranium messiah', 'uranium guru' and 'that one uranium guy', I am flattered, so thank you). Since my last post I have gotten a lot of questions regarding investing in uranium, the thesis, nuclear power, geopolitical changes and what the bear case for uranium is. So, I have decided to make a post highlighting the 10 most commonly asked questions so that more people can read my general answers to those and be informed about them. Here they are:
Q: Isn't nuclear power being phased out around the world? A: No it isn't, the US now has bipartisan support for it, Canada is looking at SMR technology, the UK intends to build small modular reactors, France has pushed back the phasing out of their nuclear power fleet from 2025 to 2035, several Eastern European countries are planning new reactors, China and the Middle-East are heavily pushing the construction of new power plants and there are many other examples of nuclear power being favored once more.
Q: What companies should I invest in within the uranium sector: A: Check my post history and the subsequent comments, especially from my last post, to get an idea of specific stock picks. I don't want to violate any subreddit guidelines by posting them here. What I can post however, is that everyone should check out the URNM etf and their holdings to get started.
Q: Uranium has been trending downwards for almost a decade, who should it change now? A: COVID-19 has really blown this market wide open and probably made sure this bull market started earlier by a margin of at least 1 or perhaps even 2 years. This rally was built on historic seasonality, bipartisan support from the US government and their strategic reserve bill, geopolitical backing of nuclear power, the closing of Cigar Lake (one of the world's largest uranium mines) and the covering of uranium investing by some of the more mainstream investment outlets.
Q: Did I miss the run already? A: No, we are nowhere close to reaching the end of this run and we probably still have years left before we see anything resembling a top. There are 6 phases to this investment and we are only just now barely starting to see the end of phase 1. Remember, the spot price of uranium needs to go to approximately $67.10 a pound to incentivize enough new production to have even a shout of fixing the supply deficit, although common consensus within the sector is that we need even more than that and that the spot price can reach inflation adjusted new all-time highs (~170 dollars a pound)
Q: Won't solar, wind and hydro remove the need for nuclear power and thus uranium? A: No it won't, see the first question, it is the best and safest form of baseload green power generation we have. But for the sake of argument, let's say we only finish the reactors currently under construction and shut all further planning of new reactors. What will happens? Guess what, the supply deficit is still significant and the thesis will still play out. There is roughly a 57 million pound supply deficit and the spot market is getting thin with both Cameco and Kazatomprom (the world's 2 largest producers) buying on the spot market. This can't hold out for much longer, regardless of whether or not nuclear power plants keep being constructed.
Q: If the price shoots up, can't people just find alternatives to uranium? A: No, for two key reasons. Firstly, as discussed above, we need nuclear power and we are starting to favor it more and more, which means we need a lot of uranium to meet demand. It is also impossible to change the fuel source in these nuclear reactors, you can't just fill a plant up with natural gas or oil and hope it will do something. Secondly, unlike gas plants and coal plants, uranium is only a small portion of the total operational cost of these reactors. While with gas and coal it can be up to 80-85% of total costs, with uranium it is closer to 5-10%. This means that price can double and double again from here, without having an enormous impact on the total cost structure. Demand is relatively inelastic.
Q: When prices go up, can't Kazakhstan or some other state owned entity not just flood the market with uranium and bring the price back down? A: They can't and they won't (Kazatomprom has tended to favor quality over quantity since 2017). First of all, it can take up to 2 years for uranium to go from the ground all the way through the enrichment process and be ready to be used as fuel. This means that even if it was possible and these companies start pumping out massive amounts of uranium, it would take up to 2 years for it to even be used as fuel. This is why security of supply needs to be met years in advance, so that a reactor does not sit there without a fuel source. In terms of the fuel cycle, we are already well into 2023. In terms of the development of new uranium sources to reach the market, we might be in 2030 already. A decade is tomorrow in uranium.
Q: But isn't there hundreds of millions of pounds of uranium on earth? A: Yes there is, but no one is going to mine that at these prices. It takes many years to fully permit and construct a uranium mine in most countries. There might be plenty of supply out there, but there certainly isn't a way to reach it easily without significant price incentive. Figures of 130 dollars or more per pound of uranium have been quoted as being needed to get to all these different sources of uranium.
Q: What are some catalysts to look out for in 2021? A: There are several. Biden's implementation of the 'green new deal', reactors finishing construction and being activated (needing around 3x as much uranium to start with to build a fuel core), the closure of two uranium mines (Ranger and Cominak, a combined ~7 million pounds a year, gone), long term contract negotiations, spot price increasing to meet the increase in enrichment prices of the past few years, institutional money getting into the sector and last but not least more news on the development and possible implementation of small modular reactor technology. All these catalyst make 2021 a year to look forward to for uranium.
Q: When should I sell my shares? A: I can't tell you that, tops are nearly impossible to call in any sector. However, to get an idea of how a uranium bull market can unfold, here is an article covering the entirety of the previous bull market which ended in 2007. Read it, take some notes, read it again and craft an exit strategy for yourself. This is not a lifetime hold, don't fall in love with these stocks, there will be a time to sell. https://thetideoffortune.com/would-you-have-made-a-fortune-in-uranium-part-1/ Oh and an extra point regarding whether or not you should buy into the sector after the recent price run up: If you have not yet established a position in the market, I would advise to do so and scale in over time and extra on weakness. It is a volatile market and a pullback will come, the question is if that it today or next week after another 20% run up.
So there we have it, 10 questions about the sector and the thesis. I have tried my best to provide short and easy to understand answers and I hope it helps all of you. Make sure to always do your own due diligence and asses your own risk tolerances, so that you are not shaken out by the volatility of this sector. Best of luck with your investments. [link] [comments]  |
| I dug this out of the drawer and thought you young whippersnappers would find this interesting Posted: 08 Jan 2021 12:56 PM PST Here is a Financial Holding Pyramid that I received over 20 years ago. The bottom of the pyramid is low risk / low reward, and the top of the pyramid is high risk / high reward. I have tried to understand each of these over the years and dabbled in some, but I tend to stay towards the bottom, with a family can't be too risky. https://i.imgur.com/4N4P3DU.png [link] [comments]  |
| Morgan Stanley Boosts Stake In MicroStrategy To 10.9% Posted: 08 Jan 2021 10:08 PM PST Investment Bank Morgan Stanley has boosted its stake in MicroStrategy ($MSTR) and now owns 10.9% of the Bitcoin rich company. Bitcoin has been on a rip since March last year up over 800%, so what will it take for any doubters to come around? [link] [comments]  |
| What exactly happens when an stock market bubble "bursts". Posted: 09 Jan 2021 02:53 AM PST With all of the talk floating around on pretty much any investing related subreddit of the bubble that we are likely in, it is always mentioned that this bubble will inevitably burst and it is always said that is coming soon. I am somewhat new to investing and I don't understand what happens when it bursts. What drives the prices down so dramatically in almost the entire stock market? I understand that it is probably not as simple as one thing every time, but in history, what has been the causes and what could likely be the cause for our future bubble burst? [link] [comments]  |
| Is interest rate going higher? Posted: 08 Jan 2021 01:16 PM PST Over the past few weeks, interest rates have begun to increase faster than expected. The yield on the 10-year Treasury has risen from 0.93% at the beginning of December to above 1%. That means that since August of last year, when the 10-year yield hit 0.5%, interest rates have more than doubled. I have been looking at the 30y treasury bill rate and it seems like it is getting close to 2% I think there are a few reasons why this is important for investors. Firstly, it means debt is more expensive. For both the U.S. government and corporate borrowers, the cost of borrowing money is rising. Many analysts expect interest rates to continue to increase over the next year as a normal part of the economic cycle. When the economy is improving, it is essential to increase interest rates in order to avoid inflation spiralling out of control. Increased economic stimulus and borrowing could drive rates higher, and while this would be positive for many companies on a fundamental level, it is bound to hit equity valuations. This is one of the risks investors need to be aware of as interest rates continue to grind higher. In past market downturns, it wasn't as much of a concern, but this time around we have seen the rather unique phenomenon of a stock market bull run during a major global economic recession, which puts quite a different spin on things. The financial markets often do what we least expect as the highest probability scenarios are already priced in, and that's where I believe we stand today, with a majority of investors pricing in lower for longer on the interest rate front, which is evidenced by the euphoric price action in the large-cap growth stocks, including recent heavily oversubscribed shares of initial public offerings. Against this backdrop, commodity prices are signaling that we are on the cusp of higher than expected future inflationary pressures. This could very well lead to the specter of a burst broader equity market bubble and a burst bond market bubble that potentially casts a pall over the broader investment landscape? What are your thoughts about where is this going? I have been under the impression that the Fed will keep the interest rate low for many years but this seems contradict to what's happening. Thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
| Diversification vs. Hand-picking Posted: 09 Jan 2021 01:04 AM PST To preface, I'm a 20 year old college student who just started to invest in August. I have no debt currently and won't have debt upon graduating (unless something changes or happens in the next year.) I had about $7,000 in the stock market - $6,000 in my IRA and $1,000 in a brokerage account - which has grown to $7,600 as of today. I'm going to max out my 2021 Roth contributions once I start working again. I recently read one of the posts here regarding diversification vs. hand-picking stocks. The insight I gained was: at my level of risk and the amount of money I have, I won't REALLY see any gains if I continue diversifying and spreading myself thin. It'd be better to do research on one or two companies, be sure-fire in them, dump my money there and hold until it goes up. That idea seems really enticing to me and I might give it a shot. Though, I'm still a little iffy about it. I was thinking of doing some middle-ground where about half of my investments, I place into one of these companies and the rest I leave in ETF's/Mutual Funds. Does anyone have any thoughts on this? It's just a little confusing because generally, all I've heard since the very beginning was to diversify - but now, it actually makes a lot more sense to be doing something like this because I can stomach the risk. [link] [comments]  |
| stock ticker app for windows10? Posted: 08 Jan 2021 07:53 PM PST I need a day trading stock ticker app for windows10. There were a lot of good desktop ticker tape apps in the win7 era. They are difficult to find now. Please recommend one which 1. update every 1-2 seconds 2. permanent display (i.e. always on top of other windows) - like a ticker tape or a side bar / windows gadget 3. configurable to atleast 20 stock symbols. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Jan 2021 05:21 AM PST Gary Kaultbaum, an analyst I think highly of, is warning his followers he's seeing lots of evidence we're in a final bull run before the a major correction. He's pointing to all time market highs across the world, sky high valuation (Tesla's doing nothing but going up 5% a day for one huge example), speculative rushes into things like bitcoin and SPACs, huge IPO valuations, and more. I know there's always someone out there saying the sky is falling, but Gary K is not one of those guys. A lot of things out there feel ready for a significant pullback. [link] [comments]  |
| USA - migrating a tumultuous future. Posted: 08 Jan 2021 07:39 PM PST Hi there, We've all seen the events in the USA and I'm curious what people's plays are to weather the situation. As someone living in the USA and having almost all of my assets placed within the country, I'm curious what others would do to improve the stability of such investments. What's your play? Edit: I forgot to mention I'd like to avoid "prepper" type stuff like precious materials or crypto. [link] [comments]  |
| Boeing 737 missing after take off in Indonesia Posted: 09 Jan 2021 03:16 AM PST Heads up for anyone with a position in Boeing. BBC article - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-55601909
I have no positions in BA. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 09 Jan 2021 02:32 AM PST This might be a stupid question to most of you, but here we go: let's say I invest 50.000 $ in an etf, like an s&p 500 etf. At the end of the year, let's say my account amounts to 55.000 $, and I want to withdraw the 5000 $ I gained, and repeat this every year. How do I do it? Do I sell the whole batch, keep the 5000 and reinvest the former 50.000? Or do I sell some of the etf? Or...? Thanks on advance [link] [comments]  |
| Remember when Cathie Wood made a prediction about TSLA and everyone laughed? Posted: 09 Jan 2021 01:59 AM PST I'm starting to think she knows what shes doing... https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/9b8u31/what_are_your_thoughts_on_catherine_woods_view/ [link] [comments]  |
| Margin of Safety vs. Timing the Market Posted: 08 Jan 2021 04:10 PM PST Would waiting for a margin of safety be considered timing the market? Correct me if I'm wrong, but waiting for a margin of safety means waiting for the price of the stock drop below its intrinsic value before purchasing it. Essentially buying the stock on sale. However, in order to do this you need to WAIT for the stock price to fall. Wouldn't this be considered timing the market? What is the exact difference here? Edit: Didn't mean to say buying stocks on margin [link] [comments]  |
| How to reduce downside risk in a stock without selling? Posted: 08 Jan 2021 07:28 AM PST I've been holding tesla for exactly 11 months and have ridiculous gains. I want to lock in some of my gains before Q1 earnings report. However I don't want to sell my stock until it qualifies for long term cap gains, because I have a shit load of profit I don't want to be counted as income. What's the right options strategy to minimize risk here? Buy a put? [link] [comments]  |
| What are the Best (paid for or free) sites for tracking Insider/Institutional buying/selling? Posted: 08 Jan 2021 02:30 PM PST so I'm aware that I can check morningstar to see the amount of shares an institution or fund owns. But the specific info I'd like to know is when an institution or insider buys or sells and if there's an app or something to notify me when insiders or institutions are buying or selling shares. I'm not sure but I believe it's SEC form-4 that companies have to file when any changes take place. But how could I be notified on the spot when companies do stuff like this? [link] [comments]  |
| Investing all my current savings as a student into NIO? Posted: 09 Jan 2021 03:39 AM PST I would like to invest £3,000 into NIO (this would be my first trade) and obviously i should never invest into one stock but I feel like the growth on this would be worth it, compared to spreading risks on others that would not give me as high as return? I won't be needing the money for at least 2 years [link] [comments]  |
| Anybody have any predictions for future catalysts for a stock market correction? Posted: 09 Jan 2021 03:15 AM PST I want to start investing with margin but I'm worried if this is the right time because of a potential stock market correction. Some possibilities that would lead to this include: - when Biden's new tax plan gets implemented and everybody will sell to solidify their gains for tax purposes. - if Tesla underperforms, it could drop significantly and pull down the market optimism with it (historically it's a volatile stock, but it's only been going up for a while.. lots of key man risk, what if Elon gets COVID?) - in general, stocks being overvalued, or bubbled for extended periods of time (like they are now) The job report this week didn't give me a lot of confidence. Does anybody have any predictions on when the next correction will be, or other indicators to look out for? [link] [comments]  |
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