Stock Market - Stock market crash 2021 or growth ahead? | Jobless claims impact on the stock market | STOCK MARKET NEWS [12-06] |
- Stock market crash 2021 or growth ahead? | Jobless claims impact on the stock market | STOCK MARKET NEWS [12-06]
- I draw with crayons so you don't have to. Last week I closed up $1,500 or 2%. Here's what's on the watchlist this week: FROG, DKNG, CRSR, SFIX, PLTR, RKT
- Ethereum Launches On Toronto Stock Exchange As An ETF
- Hedging for a crash
- AMZN in 2021?
- My prediction of the potential stock market "correction" ahead.
- Value Investing Isn't Dead - The Meaning of Value has Changed
- Private Company offering stock options (Need Advice Please)
- DKNG?
- KNDI what now?
- What percentage of your total cash do you invest?
- NightMan No More!!!!!!!!!! THE SPY PROPHECY: WEEK of 12/07
- 8 month play
- What do I do now?
- PagerDuty Announces Third Quarter Fiscal 2021 Financial Results
- This are my top 3 indicators for day trading
- Am I allowed to use a TDA account for data, to creatively analyze data and provide stock or option analytics and sell this as a subscription service to others?
- Best stocks to have during a crash
- Price models
| Posted: 06 Dec 2020 10:24 AM PST The latest jobless numbers came in bad while the stock market keeps pushing forward, is a stock market crash coming soon? Let's talk about this and the latest stock market news Hey everyone! So let's start with the recap off Friday as we saw the broad market SP500 leading the way up 0,88%, with the DOW Industrial close behind up 0,83% and the Nasdaq COMPOSITE also gaining a decent amount, up 0,7% with all 3 big indexes closing at all-time highs. We saw more than ¾ of the stocks advancing despite below average volume as companies either small, mid or large cap value or growth stocks were gaining except large-cap growth. The best gaining sectors were Energy and Materials up over 2% while Utilities finished 1% down on Friday, as Utilities were the only sector to finish the week losing significant ground, with Consumer Discretionary also dropping just 0,12%. With the rest of the sectors in the green, Energy, Health Care, Technology and Communication being the biggest gainers finishing the week up over 2%. Utilities have been hit hard in the last year as residential consumers and small businesses have been able to defer paying power bills, this will continue to hold down the sector for now with the debt still increasing. The VIX also dropped more than 2% on Friday and finished the week over 5% down as the HEAT MAP from Friday shows us that there were plenty of gains to be made especially in the Energy Sectors as well as Financials, with the big companies from the Tech and Communication sectors doing worse than the rest of the market. For the week though this HEAT MAP shows that Apple was one of the biggest gainers alongside Semiconductors and Energy Names while Health Care companies like JNJ and Pfizer also did very good. The big indexes all finished higher for the week with the SP500 up 1,7%, the Nasdaq Composite up 2,1% and the Dow up 1% with renewed hopes for a stimulus package being back on the table. Here are the most interesting economic reports for next week, it will be a light week in terms of economic data but still, the market may be volatile and trends may change depending on some of the results. So, on Friday November JOBS came in much lower than anticipated, coming in at 245K vs de 610K in October and 469K estimated while the unemployment rate dropped to 6,7% a bit better than expected and down from 6,9% in the past month. Still there are over 10million people unemployed, this number more than doubling since the start on February. The net addition of jobs in November was the smallest since May as government jobs were the worst performing while transportation and warehousing jobs continue to increase, as big companies … aka Amazon has hired almost 3thousand people per day this year. But the bad news is that long-term unemployment is approaching the peaks from the Great Recession and that is not good news for the economy or the stock market as over 3,9 million people have been out of work for at least 6 months. So, this is pretty bad news as mortgages in forbearance just slightly declined this week, by just 39K with more and more plans planned to expire in December, over 1M more exactly, more than 40% of active cases. This may finally put some extra pressure on the Congress to agree to a relief package maybe even passing it alongside the government funding bill that is still debated and has over 300 issues that the parties don't agree on. This is becoming more and more obvious as cases in the US continue to rise, coming in over 200k in the last 2 days and the economy will soon feel the pressure from this, I expect the next month or two of economic data to not be so good, this may be the time the market sees a 5-10% correction before moving on higher on more positive things like the availability of the vaccine, the passing of the torch In the Presidency and a possible relief package. Yes, this will continue to add to the US DEBT, but even though I don't have any partisan views, a good structured relief bill would do wonders for the economy as a bridge to when the vaccine will finally be widely available. Yes, I know that the global debt is set to reach $200 trillion but the DEBT-to-GDP ratio is projected to slowly go back down in the next couple of years. Other numbers that came in on Friday were Factory ORDERS which came in better than expected at +1%. While a new Redfin report indicates an increase in average home prices year over year of 16% with the number of pending home sales up almost 30% over last year while new listings of home sales is up just 9% since 2019 and dropping rather fast in the last months with sales of homes going for all time-high prices at 99,5% of the asking price as the real estate market keeps booming along. The other number that came in on Friday and was not so good was the trade deficit, which widened even more in the last month by almost $2B. So next week is again pretty slow in earnings reports with the most interesting ones on being Chewy, GameStop, Adobe, LuluLemon, Dave&Busters, Costco, Oracle and Broadcom. I own a small stake in all of them except Oracle and GameStop. I don't see such a big growth opportunity with Oracle while GameStop I believe will struggle to turn around the business with very though e-commerce competition. We will also have a number of new IPOs this week from DoorDash, AirBNB, C3.ai, Hydrofarm and Pubmatic. The first 3 are more interesting for myself but I will only take a first look at AirBNB and at what price that stock goes public to maybe get some action, I think we will a much bigger price than the 44-50$ price range to begin with for public trading. I also expect the same thing to happen with DoorDash which has already raised the IPO pricing to 90-95$ but I am not very interested to buy that stock, as this type of economy has hugely benefited them and it might see a decrease rather than an increase in the next couple of years. So, guys I still believe the stock market has upside in front of it, especially in the next 2 years, but you should tread careful for now, I think a possible correction might be just ahead before we move on higher, as you can see in this CHART, a wedge formation is continuing to from with more and more tension, I believe there is about a 6,5% possible downside to the market at the moment before eventually getting back on track next year and going toward the 4000 level. And especially with the most recent jobless numbers in the US, I would try to diversify a little more especially with some EAST-ASIA exposure in countries like South Korea, Singapore and China also. Thank you everyone for reading! Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market! Have a great day and see you next time! [link] [comments]  | ||
| Posted: 06 Dec 2020 12:47 PM PST The last several week I've been posting my plays by selling cash-secured-puts and also buying shares. I thought maybe you guys here at r/StockMarket might appreciate this post. This week I closed up roughly $1,500 which was about 2% of the buying power I used for my plays. The market performed the same, so all in all was a pretty solid week and am happy with the positions I entered, the ones I closed, and also the ones I still have open. I get a lot of messages from people asking me when do I sell my position if it goes against me? When should I sell to take profit? When a position goes against me I will try to roll it out to a further down strike price and further out expiration date. I will usually do this only once, if I feel it. Otherwise I will just take assignment. As for taking profits, if I get a quick 60% in just a day or two, I will close and look for a better opportunity. As an example, here are my positions I screen-shotted mid-week when I was getting absolutely hammered, and screen-shotted again Friday afternoon just before closing some out. You can see the positions are all the same, I wasn't stressed about having a red week since I was something like 16 wins out of 16 plays going into this week. Looks like I'll keep the win streak going for now. CRM is my only position looking contested right now. What am I doing? I do technical analysis and selling cash-secured-puts 1 to 4 weeks out on stocks that are nearing key levels of support. My goal is to collect premium, but should I get assigned I have absolutely zero problem running the wheel on stocks I want to own. As a backstory I nearly blew up my account doing WSB-style plays in March but have regained all of my account and then some running this strategy since April. What I do now is basically wheeling on weekly puts. I watch over 200 stocks, I would say its 90% waiting game and 10% true technical analysis. My levels work, but it's normally because I am patiently waiting for an entry point. Yes that's a lot of tickers to watch, but I research my stocks on weekends and then monitor additional plays & levels during the weekday to see if there is an obvious setup I want to participate in. Here's a few things regarding my strategy1. I don't over-leverage with spreads because if the stock price blows past your long strike and you assume max loss you need a lot of capital to actually be assigned the shares. For that reason I don't really see selling multiple spreads as a "Theta Gang" play and is still very high risk. If I do open a spread it will be a protective put for $1-5 just to protect myself should the company randomly announce bankruptcy. 2. I only sell cash-secured puts with the capability to be assigned if need be. My goal is to never take a loss on a position and always wheel it back to profitability. If something has changed fundamentally with the stock then yes I will close the position and realize the loss. 3. If IV on a ticker is very low, then yes I will outright buy shares instead. 4. I only aim for 1-4% per week collecting on theta and an occasional earnings theta yolo. No call-buying, no spreads, only put-selling and shares! Honestly, that's about it. I'll go through some tickers on my watchlist this weekend and what I currently have open. Open Positions From Last WeekCRM: This was an earnings YOLO that went against me. I sold the $230 strike and the stock dropped from $240 to $220 after earnings. This play expires next week so if the stock price gets a pop back over $230 I will most likely be able to close at 50% profit. Similarly if it goes down I will most likely be getting assigned. This option will be extremely volatile since it's close to being ATM and also expires this week. PLTR: This ticker wasn't on my watchlist last week, but when I saw it trading down 10% the other day I had to sell some puts. IV was/is incredibly high so I have almost a 15% return I am collecting through premium. My plays expire end of December, but are already in the green. TDOC: I'm expecting this to continue it's uptrend and I don't believe my strike will get contested, but you never know. I will hold this until closer to expiration or if I get to 80%+ profit. Master Plays This WeekI've added a range of tickers with lower stock prices that I'm watching so you folks with smaller accounts can look at some options as well. FROG ($68) I can't say I know much about FROG (Frog LTD), but I do know they have super high IV and premiums are verrrry nice. The stock was trading down 30% from the October highs, but has caught some momentum recently and is up 10% from the lows. Chart is still really new and trends are difficult to identify. I like the risk to reward selling a $60 put at the support line where it's bounced off of multiple times. Positions I'm Watching:
DKNG ($49) DKNG has been bouncing around with no clear direction. Trend is still up and has some support in the lower to mid $40s and a very strong support at $36, but that would be a 30% drop from here. In my opinion any dip into $45 will be bought. I like this ticker for long-term as well. Positions I'm Watching:
CRSR ($35) CRSR chart has gone up and up since IPO. It has a huge breakout 2 weeks ago with an even quicker reversal last week. After the sharp reversal to the downside I like the entry point with selling some January 15 puts at the $25 strike. To lose on this position the stock would need to drop another 35% from current levels. Positions I'm Watching:
SFIX ($35) - Earnings YOLO SFIX has been on an uptrend without merit. Revenues and profitability have been on the decline since covid. They tanked hard on their last 3 earnings on lackluster performance and dropped 15% on the last earnings report alone. Not good. For that reason IV and premiums are super high for next week's earnings report, Tuesday after market close. Normally I would say this chart is super over-extended, but the stock just dropped 20% last week. I like the level it's currently at to sell some puts for earnings here. Positions I'm Watching:
PLTR (23$) PLTR is similar to CRSR where the chart is too new to identify trends. The stock recent tripled before coming back down to earth. Currently sitting at around $23-24. We might see it come back down to $18, but I like the entry point here selling some puts 3-4 weeks out. Positions I'm Watching:
RKT ($19) RKT was on my list last week, but for some reason my post missed the chart and description. I added it again here. This ticker has been consolidating for 3 months just looking to explode to the upside. $20 has been a magnet recently and doesn't stray too far from the price. IV is also quite high for this name and can provide some good return. I'll be selling strikes below the $20. Positions I'm Watching:
[link] [comments]  | ||
| Ethereum Launches On Toronto Stock Exchange As An ETF Posted: 05 Dec 2020 11:17 PM PST | ||
| Posted: 06 Dec 2020 08:48 AM PST Lately a number of people have asked questions about the possibility of a crash due to X, Y and Z market indicators, and if it's a good idea to sit on cash. The most common answer seems to be that unless you might desperately need your cash in the near future, it's better to invest and ride out crash because who knows when or if that will come. An answer I don't often see is: hedge your portfolio. OTM inverse ETF leaps, OTM SPY LEAPS puts, OTM VXX/UVXY LEAPS calls all seem like relatively inexpensive instruments that would spike during a crash. During 2008 and March 2020, VIX and inverse ETFs such as SH and SPXS did spike. What are the potential or obvious downsides here? [link] [comments]  | ||
| Posted: 06 Dec 2020 05:41 PM PST I got in AMZN at 3240 around. It hit all time highs of 3550 back in September 1 and yet to test it once again. I currently hold 12 shares of Amazon and I am wondering what you guys think the 2021 outlook for Amazon is. Since its tested $3550 I am hopeful it can get there sooner rather than later, but about beyond that in 2021? [link] [comments]  | ||
| My prediction of the potential stock market "correction" ahead. Posted: 06 Dec 2020 08:08 PM PST My theory is that there might be a miniature "correction" after TSLA gets added to the S&P 500. The electric car company will see substantial growth a week before and a couple of weeks after the inclusion. This is obviously due to the ripple effect in the entire market as money managers adjust their portfolios to make room for TSLA shares. A decline in the overall market will be due to two implications of this inclusion.
This theory may have already been posted, and other people probably did a better job connecting the dots. Someone should find flaws in this prediction because I really hope I am wrong. [link] [comments]  | ||
| Value Investing Isn't Dead - The Meaning of Value has Changed Posted: 06 Dec 2020 03:44 PM PST This article disputes the idea that value investing is dead and instead argues that the meaning of value has changed in the market. Interested to hear your thoughts: https://fiaz.substack.com/p/value-investing-isnt-dead-the-meaning [link] [comments]  | ||
| Private Company offering stock options (Need Advice Please) Posted: 06 Dec 2020 01:35 PM PST If this is not the place please let me know and I will move it. My wife works for a privately held small (25-100 employees) pharmacy software company.. She has been offered an initial amount (1000) of stock options at $3.69 per share. The options are for restricted stock and the term is for 4 years I believe. I do not know if I would be privy to the balance sheet / cash flow statement / income statement / total shares outstanding to determine the financial health of the organization. What do I need to know, ask, or investigate before a decision is made? I have multiple IRAs/401k in 95% mutual funds 5% single stock worth over $300K. I consider myself to know more than the average investor. I can read financial statements. If this something we delve into it would be a very very small part of our total net worth. I don't mind a high risk-high reward scenario if its a better to join them than be left behind if the company is bought. Stock options is a whole new territory for me. I appreciate your time in replying to my post. [link] [comments]  | ||
| Posted: 06 Dec 2020 02:06 PM PST Bagholding 100 shares of DKNG @ 50.5, wondering what to do. I locked up my BP in DKNG so if I exit now I have to exit at loss. What do you guys think of DKNG this week? [link] [comments]  | ||
| Posted: 06 Dec 2020 07:38 AM PST Hey there, So after the KNDI news about fake sales and the big drop of its stock price, what should someone do? Sell for loss (43%) or keep buying this huge dip and hope for it to go back up? Thank you [link] [comments]  | ||
| What percentage of your total cash do you invest? Posted: 06 Dec 2020 05:59 PM PST I see a lot of posts recently about "holding cash". For those of us that aren't holding cash, what percent of cash do you invest? Example: 50% cash 50% stocks [link] [comments]  | ||
| NightMan No More!!!!!!!!!! THE SPY PROPHECY: WEEK of 12/07 Posted: 06 Dec 2020 05:33 PM PST
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| Posted: 06 Dec 2020 03:48 PM PST Got some Christmas bonus money and looking to start some trading. I've been doing some research into possible some copper stocks with all the ev hype. Any other stocks I should take a look it for the best 8 months returns. I'm planning on taking 2 months off work next year hence the 8 month time limit. Thanks [link] [comments]  | ||
| Posted: 06 Dec 2020 03:26 PM PST I am a stockmarket novice. I am a nurse. The dr I work with gave me some books on investing and I have read the Peter Lycnh one. He says to look for new products that you see in everyday life. The dr said to look at a new medical gadget we are going to try. I have done some work to find out who makes it and it seems interesting. But want do I do now? I was thinking of investing $1000 which is a lot of money for me. [link] [comments]  | ||
| PagerDuty Announces Third Quarter Fiscal 2021 Financial Results Posted: 06 Dec 2020 11:27 AM PST Shares of the San Francisco-based company were jumping nearly 22.8% to $39.74 in trading Friday, https://focusinvesting.biz/pagerduty-announces-third-quarter-fiscal-2021-financial-results/ [link] [comments]  | ||
| This are my top 3 indicators for day trading Posted: 06 Dec 2020 02:31 PM PST | ||
| Posted: 06 Dec 2020 06:56 AM PST Or is this not permitted by NYSE or TD Ameritrade? What does it take to get a data connection that actually does allow you to manipulate the data (at least to filter and sort it in some way, but often modifying even more than that) and sell your data analytics? [link] [comments]  | ||
| Best stocks to have during a crash Posted: 06 Dec 2020 03:46 AM PST With all the talk about recession lately, what are the best stocks that generelly hold up pretty well even during market crash ? I tried to find some info but couldnt find much. [link] [comments]  | ||
| Posted: 05 Dec 2020 11:39 PM PST So, I have this idea of creating a model of the price of a stock. The mathematical concept that I am thinking of is called a Lagrangian. If there were a model of the upward forces and downward forces driving the price of the stock then the price of the stock would be an optimization problem constrained by macro forces. The problem I can't seem to solve right now is the expectations influenced by factors such as media and other phenomena. Any thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
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