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    Friday, December 4, 2020

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing


    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 04 Dec 2020 04:11 AM PST

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announces decline in unemployment rate from 6.9% to 6.7% over the last month, beats expectations

    Posted: 04 Dec 2020 05:32 AM PST

    "Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 245,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. However, the pace of improvement in the labor market has moderated in recent months. In November, notable job gains occurred in transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, and health care. Employment declined in government and retail trade."

    More here.

    submitted by /u/F1rstxLas7
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    How has peer-to-peer lending fared as an investment after its first economic crises?

    Posted: 04 Dec 2020 06:09 AM PST

    shortly after 2010, Peer-to-peer lending was hailed as a promising new investment. Returns well north of 7%, but low risk as long as you diversified into lots of small loans. A common critique at the time was how such loans would fare in an economic crises.

    One blogger tracked his peer-to-peer lending returns, and for the first few years reported annualized gains of 15%+. AFter about 5-6 years though, his returns had dwindled down to 6% and he quit his experiment. That was before the Covid crises.

    Anyone else have any experience or links?

    submitted by /u/welliamwallace
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    An Ark and Morningstar stock pick is 20% off right now

    Posted: 03 Dec 2020 06:55 PM PST

    Splunk ($SPLK) dropped 20% from $200 to $160 due to a bad quarter earnings report. Revenue shrank 11% from a year earlier, missing estimates for a third straight period. Some interesting information about who is recommending this stock:

    • Ark immediately picked up 300,000 shares today.
    • Morningstar examined the earning call and said the drop was due to pandemic and therefore maintained their price target of $208.
    • Motley Fool's paid Stock Advisor service recommended this stock sometime in 2020.
    • Snowflake is trading at over 70 times next year's revenue, while Zscaler and Zoom are priced at well over 30 times forward sales. Splunk's price-to-sales multiple for next year is 10.

    What does this company do?

    • It offers enterprise cloud software solutions for information technology operations, security, internet-of-things, application analytics, business analytics and industries.

    • 91 of the Fortune 100 companies are Splunk clients. For example, Splunk helps Dominoes manage the 15 digital channels its customers use to order Pizza. Splunk has been providing IT monitoring and application management for Zillow since 2013.

    • Only 50% of Splunk's clients are on their cloud subscription service. But Splunk is aggressively trying to transfer all the business to cloud, and Morningstar says once that is done Splunk should be "poised for robust growth."

    Caveats - The biggest caveat here is why did other data companies perform so well while Splunk tanked? One analyst told CNBC:

    the concern for Splunk is that companies are focusing today on buying technologies that are critical to getting through the current crisis. The third-quarter miss is likely due to "de-prioritization of analytics relative to digital transformation and security investments in response to COVID-19/WFH," Turits wrote. Longer term, he said Splunk remains "the de facto machine data platform standard," and he still recommends buying the shares.

    What do you think? Is 20% a good discount for this industry leader?

    submitted by /u/r2002
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    Why would someone buy government bonds on margin?

    Posted: 04 Dec 2020 06:15 AM PST

    I noticed in my Fidelity trading account it lists different traunches of buying power with government bonds being about 10x as much as general for regular securities.

    Why would someone do this? Even when interest rates weren't zero their return in no way would touch the margin costs?

    I'm not actually interested in doing this, just trying to understand the economic sense on why anyone would. Is that part of some kind of complex trading scheme I'm just completely oblivious to?

    submitted by /u/msiekkinen
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    Is it legal to trade options with an HSA for tax free gains?

    Posted: 04 Dec 2020 07:38 AM PST

    Self employed, managing my own retirement. Started an HSA with my high deductible plan last year. Found out this year that you can invest the HSA money in the market and essentially use it as a supplemental retirement account.

    I'm aware that HSA money can only be used on qualified medical expenses before age 65 without penalty/taxes. However after age 65, that money (which was deposited and grew tax free for 30+ years) can be used for any expenses, but it will be taxed as income.

    Two questions:

    1. If I have savings and pay out of pocket for medical expenses and save all receipts for the next 30+ yrs, can I essentially use/turn in those receipts to make tax free withdrawals after 65 that I can use for whatever expenses I want? Then once I run out of those receipts, I would continue to withdrawal money from the HSA for any expenses but it would just be taxed as income. Is that correct?

    2. It seems like you're technically allowed to invest the HSA money into whatever you want for tax free growth. Does this include day-trading options for huge tax free gains?

    Thanks in advance

    submitted by /u/oak1337
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    Luminar going public makes 25-year-old Austin Russell one of world’s first, and youngest, self-driving billionaires

    Posted: 04 Dec 2020 07:24 AM PST

    Key points:

    • Luminar CEO and co-founder Austin Russell is poised to become a billionaire at 25 when his autonomous driving technology company Luminar goes public on Thursday.
    • The lidar sensing technology company works with major automakers as well as Intel's Mobileye.
    • Elon Musk says lidar is not needed for self-driving, but Luminar has a $1 billion-plus book of business and relationships with major automakers.

    Tesla isn't the only upstart auto industry player having a big year.

    Luminar, which creates lidar technology critical to many automakers' autonomous driving efforts, is going public on Thursday through a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) and the deal will make Luminar co-founder and CEO Austin Russell a billionaire — at the age of 25.

    Russell, who founded the company as a 17-year-old high school student, said the feeling of becoming a billionaire (on paper, at least) is "absolutely incredible" and "totally surreal."

    But the Luminar CEO said it also follows the plan his company has had in mind since founding. "It is totally surreal and it totally makes sense and it is hard to explain the dichotomy of it, but this has always been the goal," he said. "We set up the company to be a long-term sustainable business and power the future of autonomy for all of these automakers. We are in it for the long-term," Russell told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Thursday morning.

    Russell was a bit of a science prodigy.

    "I guess, I did memorize the periodic table — I think I was around 2 or so," Russell told CNBC Make It in a 2018 interview. "I was just obsessed with learning certain things ... just independently learning and understanding a lot of new types of scientific fields, among other things."

    That evolved into work on lasers and ultimately, lidar, which uses lasers to detect and measure distance and ultimately create a 3D map of the real world environment that can be used in self-driving.

    He ended up at Stanford University studying physics, but dropped out and received a Thiel Fellowship, created by tech icon and PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel to provide tech talent with alternatives to traditional education programs.

    Russell said the company has a forward looking book of auto business at $1.3 billion and estimates its overall market opportunity within the multi-trillion auto market at "half a trillion" as lidar and autonomous vehicles come into focus for the auto industry.

    Luminar works with automakers including Volvo, which is owned by Chinese auto company Geely.

    While Russell said it can be hard for the market to value new technologies that lack existing market comps, he noted Luminar is working with Intel's Mobileye, which also focused on the future of autonomous sensing systems. "It's cool to see back in 2017 they were acquired at a 43x revenue multiple of the business."

    Luminar, which made the 2018 CNBC Disruptor 50 list, began trading under the ticker symbol LAZR on the Nasdaq on Thursday, after its deal with SPAC Gores Metropoulos was completed.

    Elon Musk's doubts about lidar

    The Luminar CEO is not worried about lidar technology his firm has built become commoditized IP, saying the rise of this breakthrough technology is closer to what chip maker Nvidia does than a tech hardware company. "We have one of the most insane moats of any company at this stage," Russell said. "We've built out and pioneered core components ... building from the ground up. We have not used commodity parts. We have the largest patent portfolio in sensing systems, more than the top five other lidar R&D efforts combined."

    Competing lidar technologies include firms such as Velodyne and Alphabet's Waymo.

    There is one notable doubter.

    Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said that lidar is not needed for autonomous driving to work. "Freaking stupid," were Musk's words. The world's newest billionaire, Russell, disagrees.

    "I think 50 commercial partners and a majority of the major automakers we are working with would disagree. Cameras and other systems are great for assisted driving, but with autonomy, that's where need really high-performance lidar," he said, adding that Luminar is the only company able to provide this technology at production and for use at highway speeds.

    Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/03/luminar-ipo-mints-a-25-year-old-autonomous-driving-billionaire.html

    submitted by /u/cannainform2
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    SPAC Performance/Volatility

    Posted: 04 Dec 2020 07:07 AM PST

    Is anyone aware of any research/articles (ideally with visuals) that show the recent performance and volatility of SPACs/shell companies? I'm looking to see how SPACs have performed and I'm also looking to see how volatile their prices are. There's been a ton written about SPACs this year, so I assume what I'm looking for is out there, but I can't find anything.

    submitted by /u/asonjones
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    Good time to buy some airline shares

    Posted: 04 Dec 2020 12:03 AM PST

    Is it good time to buy airline shares, which is one sector which got crippled due to COVID. Altough some analysts are predicting that the stocks in the sector will come back to the levels of pre Covid I the the matter of 1 -2 months. With a bailout for Us airliners maybe incoming in the new year along with the vaccine. Should I buy stocks such as Delta and American Airlines.

    submitted by /u/gaurishkohli
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    Sundial Growing Prediction

    Posted: 04 Dec 2020 05:57 AM PST

    Sundial Growers has just received a shelf offering for 200mil. The house of representatives just passed the H.R. 3884 for Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement Act. Since this passed the house of reps, it foresees the future due to the democrats not wanting lower stimulus checks and is a way for the country to collect tax revenue from marijuana. Sundial Growers is all setup to grow easily.

    Edit:

    THEY ARE DISCUSSING AND ARE MOST LIKELY TO PASS THE H.R. 3884 DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS COMING TOGETHER TO HELP THE COUNTRY THIS IS WHAT THE US WANTS.

    PT: $1 eod

    submitted by /u/anonymousbull12
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    SEC Filing S-3ASR (Salesforce), Help me understand please

    Posted: 04 Dec 2020 07:38 AM PST

    Salesforce (CRM) filed today this form:

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1108524/000119312520310118/0001193125-20-310118-index.htm

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1108524/000119312520310118/d22552ds3asr.htm

    I have tried to read it, but I don't understand what exactly it means.

    To my understanding this form generally is for issuing more shared (or maybe moving company shares to the outstanding shares), is this true ?

    In any case, for this specific filing, anyone understands it ?

    submitted by /u/dante5edmond
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    Advice on using RSI-MACD Double cross strategy

    Posted: 04 Dec 2020 07:16 AM PST

    Hi,

    I am an intermediate investor primarily dealing with swing trading over a week to a few weeks period.

    I know there is no silver bullet trading strategy so I have been trying to work with the RSI-MACD double cross as it appeals to me. But, I'm having issues getting to actually work for me.

    There are 2 parts to my strategy, the stock picking part and the actual trading part.

    Stock picking:
    I am using 180 day candles. 9 day RSI (30/70). MACD (12/26/9).

    I select stocks where the RSI is over 30, but was under 30 in the last 2 days.
    And, where the MACD has a bullish crossover but was bearish in the last 2 days.
    Both of these are to try and guarantee that the stock is rising.

    The problem is that I get so few stocks being picked using this strategy. Maybe 1 every week or 2 will match my criteria and then it only runs up a few % and stagnates.

    Trading:
    I buy identified stocks if they are under the 60 RSI and the MACD is bullish

    I sell when the MACD turns bearish

    Any insight into where I'm going wrong would be appreciated thanks

    submitted by /u/Medeltrade
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    Open interest on GME 1/15/21 30C

    Posted: 03 Dec 2020 10:09 PM PST

    Someone who is much more educated than me please explain. Robinhood has a 1/15/21 30c on GME with open interest of over 23,000. What is this telling us ? That there's over 23,000 contracts currently being held ?? That number is 10x as high as any other option on GME. What does this really say ??

    submitted by /u/LeKobeBryeent
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    Was anyone here around when BRK was added to S&P500?

    Posted: 03 Dec 2020 04:13 PM PST

    How did the big investors react? What were they feeling?

    As everyone knows, TSLA will soon be added to the S&P. I've been in the market for 6+years now and I still consider relatively new to investing, (though I have managed to make a few mill out of 70kish in the last 1.5yrs from TSLA options.) What's happening with TSLA? Has the S&P inclusion already been 'front-runned' by the market?, or is it impossible to 'front-run' an inclusion of that size?

    What I'm curious about is how the euphoria and emotions of bug investors in general reacted to that inclusion. I believe the #1 factor in predicting future moves is predicting the emotions of big investors. So how did big investors react to BRK when BRK was added to the S&P?

    TSLA will soon be added, which will require many funds to purchase shares in order to keep their claim that they're 'S&P Indexed'. But I also believe that 'if everyone agrees with you, you already missed the boat.' Any suggestions as to how I and many other investors should think about this? Thanks!

    PS Although I have visited /r/wallstreetbets on occasion, I'm not a regular there, promise ;)

    submitted by /u/Setheroth28036
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    Hedging against inflation, with a car **GASP**

    Posted: 04 Dec 2020 06:11 AM PST

    So I am at the end of a lease with a $26k buyout. This is pretty much average market value. I looked at previous depreciation, and keeping the car takes the biggest hit in the immediate first year (1st year of lease end....so 3 years old)of -11%, but then -3-4% each year for about the remaining 5 years before another large swing of depreciation sets in. If I am one to believe the hype about dollar losing 20% and my asset only depreciates 17%, am I making a case that the car may be better to buy outright, and pocket the 3% in recovered depreciation? I know a car is probably the worst asset but does this make any sense? Am I missing something in my line of thought.....does my asset depreciate in the fiat I pay + good ole fashion car depreciation or only depreciation alone. I am scratching my head on this one and wonder if this buy now is right or if my line of thinking is off. I'm also assuming I obtain the asset at a 1-2% discount, but that is not guaranteed. Let me know if this is better for the PF sub.

    submitted by /u/_The_Judge
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    FED Balance Sheet inquires

    Posted: 04 Dec 2020 05:42 AM PST

    https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

    In the talks about the second stimulus, I'm really curious to know where did the first stimulus officially end? If we take a look at FED balance sheet there was a huge surge from March 10 to June 9, followed by a small drop till July 7, at which point, it started growing again. What is officially considered the end of the stimulus? Is it June 10? And is the period from July 7 till the present moment considered "regular operations"? What differs "stimulus" from "regular operations" if both grow in size indefinitely, just the magnitude?

    Beside the official stimulus which is huge in magnitude, how much can FED grow its balance sheet without "declaring" it a "stimulus", in other words, what are FED upside/downside limits without the consent of senate pertaining to growing/shrinking balance sheet in "regular operations"?

    If we look at the period from 2010 to 2015, there was a constant growth. Was it considered a stimulus as well or just "regular operations"? While I understand that the wealth is being created and we need more money in the system, is it that the economy grew almost as much as 10 times from 2008, therefore requiring as much as 10 times the amount of the money in the system?

    Can FED grow balance sheet another 10 fold in the next 10 years, therefore, the equities will simply continue to grow and everybody will be wealthier and happier or there are some repercussions? What should one be aware of and are the consequences?

    Edit: typos

    submitted by /u/LeMondain
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    Time for AT&T?

    Posted: 03 Dec 2020 12:10 PM PST

    Warner Bros announced they intend to Release All 2021 Movies in Theaters and HBO Max Simultaneously.

    They're also seeking final bids on DirecTV, which they have horribly mismanaged (at least in my experience as a user)

    Between the HBO bump and potentially getting rid of DirecTV, could this be a good hop on point? Or am I just too new to this and being naïve by taking news at face value?

    submitted by /u/itsgoingtobealtright
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    TAAS crypto currency

    Posted: 04 Dec 2020 04:13 AM PST

    Hi I'm from the UK and quite new to investing so please excuse my amateurish vocabulary. I am on the Trading212 app and have been advised on "TAAS" a crypto currency. I can't find it on the app anywhere can anyone help and does anyone have any information or opinions on it?

    submitted by /u/Peter9786
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    Portfolio analysis

    Posted: 04 Dec 2020 02:23 AM PST

    I'm searching for a while now for a investment analysis app, website or piece of software where you're able to connect or import csv data from DEGIRO. Unfortunately I can't get it to work with Sharesight or Portfolio Performance. There are a lot of fields which you need to name manually. I tried all kinds of combinations, but all give errors. Is there someone who has a little guide or knows another solution/app/software to import transaction data from DEGIRO.

    submitted by /u/TheSquirrel_
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    What are your guy's short term plays? Also when do you sell?

    Posted: 03 Dec 2020 05:16 PM PST

    Hey guys, I'm looking for some help and some good advice. I'm new to the stock market and right now in EV, some tech, some energy, etc...

    Forgetting the volatility in EV and china stocks right now, can you guys answer some questions/ Give me some input?

    weed: bearish/bullish/volatile ?

    Vaccine: what's going on with vaccine? what are some big players? I've read that the vaccine news "doesn't actually effect stocks cuz their selling at base price..." but I've seen different. I've also seen that the news really impacts the whole sector (maybe because its global news). But I'm wondering what companies are you guys watching when it comes to vaccine news, I have no clue I've been too caught up in EV.

    Also, What are you guys watching? I caught up with a friend recently who read something about sundial $SNDL and made a lot of money. He told me to look on yahoo finance, but because my portfolio is so EV, that's the only news I get. So I'm wondering what you guys are watching, what are some companies that are kind of under the radar right now that you guys think could POP soon. I understand you guys don't have all the answers I'm just asking what's the word on the street. Also besides watching conference calls and stuff like that, how do you guys find short term plays? where do you guys find these slept on companies. Again I get that you guys don't have all the answers but where do you guys get your news?

    Also, what do you guys think of Rolls-Royce $RYCEY, Alibaba $BABA, Palantir $PLTR (Be Serious), $GM.

    Please give me your guy's short term plays down below, and any EV, tech, Renewable energy stocks you guys are watching for long term.

    Also can some of you guys help me with my current portfolio? I'm just holding/ watching everything now, I feel like its time to sell on all my short term plays now, how do you guys know/ gauge when to pull out of short term plays?

    submitted by /u/astrosaad
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    What is the logic behind GME?

    Posted: 03 Dec 2020 09:52 AM PST

    How do you think you can beat institutes? If they are all shorting they definitely know something that you don't.

    AND if they made a mistake, and with the new developments and cohens threatening ass letter, why aren't they closing their short positions before a potential squeeze happens? like they can minimize losses by shorting now rather than when Cohen takes over and guarantee a squeeze doesn't happen?

    submitted by /u/Quicksilver7424
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    DG a solid long?

    Posted: 03 Dec 2020 04:47 PM PST

    I think I'm going to dump some cash into DG tomorrow. They've steadily grown their earnings each year since 2017 (as far back as I noticed on Yahoo finance) and they've increased each quarter in 2020. They've put performed the SPY on the past 12 months but not the past 6 however if they kill it on their fourth quarter earnings then maybe it will be enough to keep out pacing the SPY. Any thoughts or objections?

    submitted by /u/SportsTherapy
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