Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Oct 15, 2020 |
- r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Oct 15, 2020
- 'Nightmare' U.S. stock valuations driven by 'young, dumb' investors, fund manager says
- Wells Fargo fires more than 100 workers over alleged pandemic-relief fraud
- Elon Musk says Tesla Model S will now cost $69,420, lower than new rival
- Array Technologies, the No. 2 global solar tracker maker, IPO launches at any moment now. Why is nobody talking about this?
- Next move for those holding NIO?
- Tesla Gigafactory Berlin water shut off for not paying water bill.
- Morning Market Synopsis - Thursday, Oct. 15, 2020
- Due Diligence on Hyliion (HYLN)
- At what point are you planning to buy more DKNG?
- Tattooed Chef (TTCF) IPO
- Thoughts on $NIU - Chinese Electric Scooter manufacturer?
- What are your guys thought son $ARKF?
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals
- Your top 5 stocks for long term holding?
- Please help me on my academic project, I have to submit it tomorrow ��
- Slowly learning with positive results
- Top Market News - Thursday, Oct. 15, 2020
- Thoughts on BABA?
- Thoughts on PLNHF?
- Open-source historical stock data
- PTON (Peloton) Market Capital
- AMC possible bankruptcy! Entertainment stocks or Airlines?
- Deloitte report on private equity investment opportunities post COVID-19 (may apply to public markets too)
| r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Oct 15, 2020 Posted: 15 Oct 2020 01:05 AM PDT This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on stock options, but if options aren't your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against options here and not in the current post. Some helpful day to day links, including news:
Required info to start understanding options:
See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki: If you have a basic question, for example "what is delta," then google "investopedia delta" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned. See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. [link] [comments]  |
| 'Nightmare' U.S. stock valuations driven by 'young, dumb' investors, fund manager says Posted: 15 Oct 2020 06:31 AM PDT U.S. equity valuations have become a "total nightmare" fueled by "young and dumb" investors, according to Cole Smead, president and portfolio manager at Smead Capital Management. At present, investors are paying 22 times forward earnings to purchase stocks on the S&P 500, 50% higher than the 10-year average valuations across the index. The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of a company by its estimated future earnings per share (EPS). Much of the market rally which took the U.S. benchmark from correction territory in March to an all-time high in August was driven by tech megastocks and a bullish options market. "The buying that went on in August and September is a 10-year phenomenon the likes of which we have never seen, among millennials and in the risk-taking among people that don't want to own bonds and want to own overpriced U.S. quality businesses, it is of record proportions," Smead told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Thursday. He added that current valuations were an example of "stock market failure" driven by millennials speculating in the stock market for the first time. Smead projected that markets could be in for a nosedive since despite its monetary policy shoring up credit markets, the Federal Reserve "can't save a stock market." "They are buying bullish call options that expire inside two weeks. There was ($500 billion) of bullish call options bought in a four-week stretch by small retail traders," Smead said. A call option is a contract between the buyer and seller of the call to exchange a security, in this case a stock, at an agreed price. "In '99 it was $100 billion, in '07, it was $100 billion. That is what young, dumb investors are doing and when the market makers see those (call buying) out there, they sell that call to that person and they buy the stock," Smead added. He suggested that the willingness of wealthy investors and the baby boomer generation to "ride the index to a fault" and overpay for stalwart American businesses such as Costco and Microsoft was also detrimental. "Microsoft is a wonderful company, but at 40 times earnings, there is a 0% chance of that producing wealth for someone over the next 10 years that will meet their needs." Despite a sharp tech sell-off in early September, Microsoft shares remain 40% higher since the turn of the year, while fellow tech titans Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook and Netflix have all been on a tear since March's crash. [link] [comments]  |
| Wells Fargo fires more than 100 workers over alleged pandemic-relief fraud Posted: 15 Oct 2020 07:43 AM PDT A bank internal investigation found that as many as 125 employees made false representations in applying for a type of small-business relief program called an Economic Injury Disaster Loan, a person familiar with the matter said. The Small Business Administration program has been providing these loans directly to business owners who lost revenue due to the pandemic. The SBA inspector general said in July that it had been barraged with complaints about fraud. [link] [comments]  |
| Elon Musk says Tesla Model S will now cost $69,420, lower than new rival Posted: 14 Oct 2020 02:20 PM PDT Elon Musk @elonmusk The gauntlet has been thrown down! The prophecy will be fulfilled. Model S price changes to $69,420 tonight! Earlier Wednesday, California EV startup Lucid Motors announced a cheaper version of its Lucid Air luxury EV sedan, which would start at $77,400 (or $69,900 including $7,500 in federal tax credits.) [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 15 Oct 2020 08:24 AM PDT |
| Next move for those holding NIO? Posted: 15 Oct 2020 07:30 AM PDT I'm very young and very new to the stock market so I put a small fraction of my money into buying 30 shares of NIO. After the jump it's made in the past few days should I sell today then buy at the next dip? [link] [comments]  |
| Tesla Gigafactory Berlin water shut off for not paying water bill. Posted: 15 Oct 2020 12:33 PM PDT Translated from German. "Tesla is temporarily unable to continue building its factory in Grünheide near Berlin. The Strausberg-Erkner water association turned off the water because Tesla did not pay the money, said association spokeswoman Sandra Ponesky on Thursday in Strausberg." [link] [comments]  |
| Morning Market Synopsis - Thursday, Oct. 15, 2020 Posted: 15 Oct 2020 07:47 AM PDT US equities lower: Dow (0.93%), S&P 500 (1.05%), Nasdaq (1.45%), Russell 2000 (0.76%)
Notable Gainers:
Notable Decliners:
09:36:53 AM CDT on 15 Oct '20 [link] [comments]  |
| Due Diligence on Hyliion (HYLN) Posted: 14 Oct 2020 05:51 PM PDT I'd like to preface this post by stating this is my first proper DD that I've publicly submitted. I've been a follower of r/stocks for nearly 4 years now, mostly lurking and absorbing information. This is my way of thanking this community for helping me begin my investment journey and helping me mature into financial adulthood. I also think it's necessary for me to make this point because lately I've noticed a concern with new accounts attempting to pump HYLN, which isn't my intention nor is it something that I approve of as it leads to volatility. I plan to hold HYLN long-term (at the very least until I can avoid short-term capital gains tax before I start accepting some of my gains). Before I begin I want to emphasize that this is not a pump stock, the short-sellers need to stop treating it as one. If you invested in this stock during the merger then short of accepting your losses you are now a long-term investor (1-2 years). Consider it a lesson learned and perhaps one that will pay for itself. Onto the meat. Explaining HyliionHyliion (pronounced Hi-Lee-On) stands for HYbrid-LIthium-IOn. They're a company located in Austin, TX and led by a young CEO by the name of Thomas Healy. They offer electrified powertrain conversion systems for Class 8 fleet semi-trucks, effectively converting a diesel or natural gas powered semi-truck into a hybrid by replacing the powerhouse of the rear-most rear-axle with a battery-powered axle (think "Toyota Prius" functionality but on a larger scale). They're also preparing a roll-out of their fully electric semi-truck known as the Hypertruck ERX. Their products are designed to improve performance and lower cost of ownership while leveraging the already-existing alternative fuel infrastructure. The hype factor surrounding the company appears to have helped potential clients pursue their company with interest instead of their company chasing clients, I see this as a huge win for them, as does Thomas Healy (1). This hype factor, for better or worse, found its way into the retail investor's strategy as well. The stock price climbed 500% within a few months. Despite being due for a correction many gambled on the hypothesis that the price would continue to rise after the merger. Unfortunately, the week prior and during the merger resulted in a lot of unplanned activity leading to an increase in volatility. During the merger there were eight proposals that Hyliion was pushing to be approved prior to completing the merger and being listed on the stock exchange. All passed but one; Proposal 3. Proposal 3 was set to classify the board of directors, however this proposal failed to pass by popular vote of the investors for the general reason summarized by one large investor below:
This immediately resulted in the initial downward trend of the stock's price. There was a lot of uncertainty in the air surrounding the merger and the future of the company (false rumors stating that "the merger cannot pass without this proposal" surfaced leading to more fear for the new-term future) and caused doubt for many retail investors. Hyliion extended the voting exclusively for Proposal 3 by an additional two days to recount and offer additional time to vote for those who didn't. Proposal 3 failed again and once again the price of the stock dropped. The key to what happened on Wednesday however is that Hyliion confirmed that the merger would still be taking place on that Friday, and the ticker would change to HYLN at some point in the following week for all brokerages (the timing varies between them). This all seemed to line up once again until the unexpected happened at the worst time, the Thursday evening prior to the ticker change President Trump confirmed via Twitter that he tested positive for CoVid-19. The markets tanked and Hyliion was hit about as hard as you could imagine. Eventually, the merger went through and now we can move onto talking about what this company offers for the future of the Class 8 semi-truck industry! Product 1: The Hybrid-Electric ProductThe hybrid conversion products are available for order and fitting TODAY and can be optioned to cost between $36,000 and $40,000 per unit (7). It's a product that's universally compatible between all trucking OEMs (it's already been featured mounted to a 2020 Freightliner Cascadia in front of the NYSE and Thomas Healy has confirmed that it can be installed on all other CLASS 8 manufacturers as well including Peterbilt, Volvo, Mack, Kenworth and International). The front most rear axle is still driven by the truck's factory engine, however the rear most rear axle is 100% electric-drive. A keynote is that this product is not manufactured in house, it's manufactured by DANA; an industry leading supplier of drivetrain, axle and electrified propulsion components. DANA holds a stake in HYLN equity (12). Two options for the hybrid conversion unit exist. They can be installed on both a used truck as well as a brand-new truck while retaining the manufacturer's warranty. I'll briefly cover them both below: The Hybrid Diesel Unit Essentially taking your typical diesel-powered semi-trucks and fitting them with a battery-powered rear most rear axle. The battery system can be installed on nearly every OEM's Class 8 semi-truck with no additional driver training required. The unit weighs 695lbs and adds ~1500 ft lbs. of torque and 120hp capability to the semi-truck, offering immediately improved performance and efficiency. The software (created in-house) offers advanced analytics that maximize fuel economy by determining precisely when to utilize the captured energy, keeping the truck in an efficient operating range (4) with assistance through the power of regenerative braking that supplements the jake brake (a generally prohibited noisy brake that brakes the engine by loss of energy that would otherwise be used to turn the engine's crankshaft) and reduces the truck's brake wear thereby reducing maintenance on this component of the vehicle as an additional bonus. During a vlog test-drive with the hardware (7), two truckers summarized their opinion on the hybrid conversion system using the following points:
The Hybrid Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) Unit This hardware is identical to the hardware utilized for the hybrid-diesel unit. CNG trucks are generally underpowered when compared to their diesel counterparts, this product assists the CNG trucks in gaining performance by storing energy on down hill roads and flat terrains to assist in accelerating the truck up the next inclined road. The additional power figures help supplement additional payload as well, allowing for tandem sets to be pulled by CNG trucks (a trait generally exclusive to diesel-powered trucks). Again, the beauty of this product shines from the software that uses algorithms designed to take advantage of previously collected hill data based on terrain and location to maximize climbing power (5). A common retort I've seen by the investing community is that "hybrids aren't the future, electric is". I agree, however I also believe that the hybrid solution is the short-term, necessary steppingstone to the electric future. Hyliion has a plan for the future as well. Let's move onto that. Product 2: The Hypertruck ERXEnter the ERX. This is their fully electric-drive truck. The rear axle is driven solely by an electric motor with battery cells provided by Toshiba and packaged and managed in-house by Hyliion (8). When the truck's battery power is low an under-the-hood generator turns on, converting renewable natural gas produced by biowaste to charge the battery thus delaying the need for a grid-charge. This results in the Hypertruck ERX producing NET-NEGATIVE CARBON EMISSIONS. Page 9 of their investor presentation offers the following comparison between their Hypertruck ERX, Tesla's Battery-Electric Vehicle (BEV) and Nikola's scam product: https://i.imgur.com/v59n7lQ.png The truck offers 1,300 miles of range with a larger payload than the competition and shorter recharging time than a Tesla: https://i.imgur.com/KKv4tzb.png Product 3: The Batteries & SoftwareThe battery packaging, modules and management systems (software controlling the functionality of the battery) are built in-house by Hyliion. The lithium-ion battery cells are sourced from Toshiba. Hyliion's software is a key product that appears to be overlooked by many investors. The software works off of driving habits and locations to allow for a more efficient battery life, prolonging drivability between refuels as well as increased efficiency and the pat on the back knowing that you're utilizing renewable resources. Thomas Healy has stated that one of their company's goals is to work with the battery cells that are provided to them and configure the functionality of the batteries with their software to outlast the truck's lifespan; instead of evolving the batteries they are evolving the software that can make the current-existing technology better. ClientsBelow is a list of target customers. Do with this information what you will as most of them have not been confirmed at this time but being focused on such heavy hitters provides a very positive outlook for the investors: https://i.imgur.com/UxSQ3Ra.png
CompetitionI should begin this segment by stating that at this moment Hyliion does NOT have any competition when it comes to hybrid conversion technology for Class 8 semi-trucks. Tesla Tesla has plans to build battery-powered semi-trucks at the cost of ~$200,000 per truck, with an expected range of 500 miles (compared to Hyliion's 1300 miles with the ERX). I think that they are a very competent competitor however they have many fine lines left to iron out and like Hyliion, the strength of their position in this sector is still completely unknown. They're dominating the retail consumer EV market but that can't be compared to the truck market. I also don't believe that autonomous trucking will become the norm any time soon (lobbyists and lawsuits will push this back for years if not decades). An advantage for Hyliion here is timing; they're ahead of the game with their products already available for testing, analytics and purchase. Throughout my DD I've found myself reading trucking blogs and watching trucking vlogs. I've noticed that truck drivers tend to be "old school" and particular people. I can't imagine that the interior minimalistic qualities that Tesla is known for will be popular with those clients (chains like WalMart won't care what their truckers like or dislike which renders this point moot in that sense, however the many smaller chains and retail drivers will consider this point in their decision). Nikola Motors They're under investigation by the SEC amid fraud allegations, and the CEO Trevor Milton has since stepped down from his position within the company. Not only that but GM have pushed back their contract to renegotiate their terms given the company's recent headlines in the news. At this moment I don't think it's reasonable to consider their company a competitor to anyone. ConcernsI can't trust someone's DD unless if it contains some potential negatives about the company, so I couldn't expect you to read through mine without knowing what concerns I have about Hyliion's future:
If you made it this far I commend you and appreciate your time. We're here to become better traders and if you have any critiques or corrections regarding my DD I'm happy to acknowledge them. NOTE: Some of my sources were removed. I didn't realize that YouTube links cannot be referenced in posts. I understand the reasoning (people will pump their own channels), but it's an inconvenience here. If anyone wants the direct links I am happy to PM them to you. The background to HYLN and how they came to IPO has also been removed under Rule #7, if anyone is interested in the full details regarding their merger feel free to message me directly. Sources: 1.) REMOVED 2.) https://theheadlinereporter.com/tort oise-approves-hyliion-deal/ 3.) https://www.hyliion.com/hybrid-diesel/ 4.) https://www.hyliion.com/technology/ 5.) https://www.hyliion.com/hybrid-cng/ 6.) REMOVED 7.) REMOVED 8.) REMOVED 9.) https://www.tesla.com/semi 10.) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1759631/000121390020015311/ea123187ex99-3_tort oiseacq.htm 13.) https://www.wegmans.com/news-media/articles/partnership-with-hyliion-american-natural-gas/ 14.) https://www.truckinginfo.com/351995/hyliion-delivers-first-class-8-hybrid-vehicles-to-penske [link] [comments]  |
| At what point are you planning to buy more DKNG? Posted: 15 Oct 2020 10:10 AM PDT I have been in at 20 and 30 and based on its trajectory now I could see it falling back into the mid 30s unfortunately, but am still suspecting that this is a 200 dollar stock in 2-3 years. I am thinking about buying again around 40 or 35 if it were to fall that low. Was curious what your re-buy price will be? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 15 Oct 2020 10:33 AM PDT It will begin trading on the Nasdaq tomorrow. Plant based food with great financial results. Exceeding their expected results by a lot every quarter. They are expanding to more stores by the end of this year. About to open up their online store. Lots more they will be announcing. If interested you can look into them a bit. Very solid company. [link] [comments]  |
| Thoughts on $NIU - Chinese Electric Scooter manufacturer? Posted: 15 Oct 2020 01:43 PM PDT I'm wondering if anyone here has any insight about Niu Technologies ($NIU) who sold 250,000 electric scooters in China last quarter. Since seeing $NIO bounce I'm wondering if there's a long-term opportunity here since many Asian countries utilize scooters en mass. Company valued at only 2 billion but industry estimated to be worth 40 billion by 2030 [link] [comments]  |
| What are your guys thought son $ARKF? Posted: 15 Oct 2020 01:34 PM PDT I was looking at the holdings: https://ark-funds.com/fintech-etf Its very heavy in SQ which is a company I like alot. But i'm not very familiar with the other companies on there. Is it worth it go into ARKF or just SQ? Additionally: What are your thoughts on the financial tech industry? who do you think are the big players besides SQ? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 15 Oct 2020 09:17 AM PDT Currently down 20% today after Phase 2 study of VX-814 in patients with alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency was discontinued for safety reasons. Anyone else holding vertex? I was thinking of buying more since it seems like somewhat of an over reaction for one drug. However it just seems to keep dropping and I saw a few price targets were dropped as well [link] [comments]  |
| Your top 5 stocks for long term holding? Posted: 15 Oct 2020 01:49 AM PDT As another red day seems to come upon us, I thought that the next few days/weeks until the election and possibly after it will be a great entering point for some long investments. My current list: 1) AMZN - Don't think any explanation is needed 2) SQ - Love this company and its CEO , been invested for a while and planning to add more if it dips hard. 3) AAPL - Same as AMZN 4) NIO - This one's new on my list, after seeing yesterdays new price targets and reading about the comapny for a few weeks I think im ready to get in for the long term. 5) AMD - Same as SQ Feel free to post your lists, i'm looking for ideas. [link] [comments]  |
| Please help me on my academic project, I have to submit it tomorrow �� Posted: 15 Oct 2020 02:14 AM PDT Dear investors! We hope that Wall Street is treating you well. This questionnaire aims to understand the effect of market information on the investment decisions of individual investors in the stock market. The data collected is strictly confidential for use in further research. It will be of great help if you could spare your precious 2 mins for us. Thank you so much! [link] [comments]  |
| Slowly learning with positive results Posted: 15 Oct 2020 09:42 AM PDT So I promised myself I'd buy stocks for long term holds. I make it a point not to check on how they are doing and only spend as much as I'm willing to throw away at a blackjack table. I've only made a few lifetime buys and most recently tried my first option trade. Bought some Dis and BA at the dip in March but sold those way too prematurely. Instead of being happy I've been afflicted with hindsight greed and regret for not doing more. The only real loss I've had was buying a marijuana penny stock on the advice of a surgeon friend ($SPLIF) Now I bought 83 shares of $CRSR. I feel like the rise of GPU and CPU is only going to foster growth in fellow comp part brands. I also debating if I should put $100 worth into $RAZFF. Any thoughts/insights? EDIT: Sorry wrong imgur post. Corrected it [link] [comments]  |
| Top Market News - Thursday, Oct. 15, 2020 Posted: 15 Oct 2020 02:02 PM PDT Summarized to save you time. Resurgence of coronavirus cases in Europe leads to fresh mitigation measures, US cases back near 60K:
Stimulus skepticism:
Sector performance mixed with value groups ahead but FAANG complex a weight:
Initial jobless claims higher but drop in continuing; manufacturing surveys mostly better:
Biden leads Trump by 11 points in latest national poll:
Vaccine hesitancy remains elevated:
More income cliff concerns, more signs consumer spending is holding up:
Quarles says Fed may have to stay involved in Treasury market for a long time:
Strategists see change of market leadership toward value no matter who wins election:
The earnings bar looks higher:
[link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 15 Oct 2020 01:54 PM PDT BABA has a PE ratio of 30, in an industry that has an average of 150 currently. It has a BUY rating across the board from analysts. I looked at 24 analyst recommendations. ALL 24 have a BUY rating on this stock. Not even one hold rating. And this is not even an American company. Their average price point is at 328.36. The most Conservative rating is at 300. The most ambitious is at 355. Seems like a good, solid stock, as opposed to the meme stocks you hear about daily. A good entry point for this stock right now after the weakness last couple of days. Disc: I have a long position through selling a CSP at a strike of 300 (unfortunately I sold it before the weakness, so my position is currently in the red). Thoughts on this stock? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 15 Oct 2020 01:39 PM PDT Could you please share your opinions on Planet 13 Holdings? I know it's super hyped up, but I visited and it was so amazing I am still thinking of investing in it. 9x sales does not look to crazy compared to some other growth companies.... Has anyone done a proper research on them? [link] [comments]  |
| Open-source historical stock data Posted: 15 Oct 2020 01:13 PM PDT For a data-driven risk analysis application, we are looking for historical stock data. The problem is that all API or data providers we found so far (like alphavantage, iexcloud) do either not permit to use their data commercially, or, if they do, do not allow to build an API around their API, which is something we need to do for the whole thing to make sense. Is there an "open-source" (not only free of cost, but really without limitations of usage) provider for historical stock data? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 15 Oct 2020 10:55 AM PDT Does anyone genuinely think Peloton is worth the 39Billion Market Capital? [link] [comments]  |
| AMC possible bankruptcy! Entertainment stocks or Airlines? Posted: 15 Oct 2020 09:11 AM PDT AMC says they will most likely run out of money by 2021, what do you think? Are movie theaters a dying business? Streaming services have changed a lot in the past couple of years, looks like they are about to kill the theater business as well. What's Reddit's opinion on this? Do you think movie theaters are out? What about places like Dave & Busters, do you think these places are coming back post-pandemic. Personally, I think Dave and Busters is coming back and as far as Dave and Busters vs Airlines, I'd say Dave and Busters is gonna be a better bet only because people will be going out for the night in their city long before they are traveling and vacationing in other places consistently. Would like to hear your opinions on all this? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 15 Oct 2020 08:47 AM PDT I highly recommend reading this report by Deloitte explaining the opportunities for investing in private equity as a result of the virus. Many of these lessons apply to invest in the public markets as well. Let me know your thoughts :) [link] [comments]  |
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