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    Saturday, October 31, 2020

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing


    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 30 Oct 2020 05:12 AM PDT

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Stocks just wrapped up their worst week since March

    Posted: 30 Oct 2020 01:29 PM PDT

    It has been a messy week for the stock market. With only four days to go until Election Day, rising Covid-19 infections and uncertainty about further government stimulus to help the economy, there's plenty for investors to worry about.

    Stocks had their worst week since March, when the market tumbled under the first wave of coronavirus infections and lockdowns -- and one of their worst weeks of the year as a whole.All three major indexes also recorded the second straight month of losses.The Dow (INDU) fell 6.5% on the week while the S&P 500 (SPX), the broadest measure of Wall Street, dropped 5.6%. Though we're not back in lockdown mode yet, some European countries have tightened restrictions again to combat a second wave.The Dow closed down 0.6%, or 158 points, on Friday. It was also its worst month of the year since March.The S&P ended the day 1.2% lower.But the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP) fared the worst on Friday, as tech stocks got clobbered. Shares of Twitter, for example, closed down more than 20%, following the company's earnings Thursday. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) shares also tumbled after their earnings reports.The Nasdaq finished down 2.5% on Friday, for a drop of 5.5% on the week.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/30/investing/dow-stock-market-today/index.html

    submitted by /u/diddycarter
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    According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, current‑dollar GDP increased 38.0 percent, or $1.64 trillion, in the third quarter to a level of $21.16 trillion. In the second quarter, GDP decreased 32.8 percent, or $2.04 trillion

    Posted: 30 Oct 2020 07:37 AM PDT

    https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2020-advance-estimate

    From BEA website:

    Current‑dollar GDP increased 38.0 percent, or $1.64 trillion, in the third quarter to a level of $21.16 trillion. In the second quarter, GDP decreased 32.8 percent, or $2.04 trillion (tables 1 and 3).

    The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.4 percent in the second quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 3.7 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 1.6 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.5 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.8 percent.

    Personal Income

    Current-dollar personal income decreased $540.6 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $1.45 trillion in the second quarter. The decrease in personal income was more than accounted for by a decrease in personal current transfer receipts (notably, government social benefits related to pandemic relief programs) that was partly offset by increases in compensation and proprietors' income (table 8). Additional information on several factors impacting personal income can be found in "Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income."

    Disposable personal income decreased $636.7 billion, or 13.2 percent, in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $1.60 trillion, or 44.3 percent, in the second quarter. Real disposable personal income decreased 16.3 percent, in contrast to an increase of 46.6 percent.

    Personal saving was $2.78 trillion in the third quarter, compared with $4.71 trillion in the second quarter. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 15.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with 25.7 percent in the second quarter.

    submitted by /u/NineteenEighty9
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    ABBV - beat earnings, improved guidance, increased dividend 10%, zero discussion

    Posted: 30 Oct 2020 07:24 AM PDT

    I see a lot of talk on here about the big tech and disruptors, but not much about Aristocrats like ABBV.

    With such a good earnings report, the Allergan acquisition and new drugs coming down the line to diversify their income stand, I'm honestly surprised to see nothing come up about them.

    With a 10% increase to their dividend (1.30$ a quarter) does anyone have reason to believe ABBV wouldn't be a great play/awesome value, outside of the Humira wannabes?

    submitted by /u/bushysmalls
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    Is it a good idea to pump money into s%p fund

    Posted: 31 Oct 2020 02:57 AM PDT

    During these corona times, would it be wise to just input money into a s%p 500 fund and not think about it? And just pump monthly and take it out in 5 years? I dont wann think about where I'm putting my money and don't want to do too much work. I've got roughly 8k dollars and looking to input 300-600$ monthly. What would be a good fund for me to give my money and just stop thinking about it for the next few years?

    submitted by /u/gitrikt
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    What we found after analyzing Hollysys Automation for more than 6 months

    Posted: 31 Oct 2020 03:43 AM PDT

    As a value investor, one of the things I look out for is a catalyst for price realisation. After all, even if a stock is criminally undervalued, if it does not have something in its future that will cause other people to wake up to its value, it could stay undervalued forever. Today I'm going to talk about a company that has a very clear catalyst which the value, as well as price of the stock, hinges upon. If the catalyst is positive, the upside is enormous, with the stock possibly doubling or tripling almost overnight.

    It all started about 6 months ago when I decided to analyse automation. The coming 4th Industrial Revolution will see human-performed tasks being done by robots, and companies that provide these automation services could do very well indeed. After a quick screen, Hollysys Automation Technologies immediately jumped out at me: the company presented itself with spectacular financials characterized by high liquidity; low debt; steadily growing FCF/revenue/net income over the decade; consistent book value; an average ROE of 15% over a decade, ROCE 13%, a stock price trading at a 30-50% discount compared to competitors, and DCF models estimating a value of $30-40 (currently trading about $11). In other words, the dream of any value investor.

    I will be the first to admit I don't have as much knowledge in the automation industry as I'd like – and that's something I've been working on over the past few months. So, after a quick look at their impressive financial statements, our next step was to talk to the IR of the various Hollysys competitors to better understand the competitive environment that Hollysys were operating in, and whether they could preserve their impressive return ratios over the long term.

    As a quick overview of the company, Hollysys operates in two segments: industrial automation and railway automation. In industrial, most of the company's revenue comes from automating fossil fuel energy plants. It would not be unfair to compare it to a defence company or a public contractor, since the Chinese Communist Party controls the state railways and owns a 75% stake in SINOPEC, China's largest and most important oil company. In addition, the company also has a dominant market position in safety systems for nuclear power plants in China, a sector that is growing with a CAGR of 17%, bringing the number of reactors in the country from 16 in 2012 to 56 in 2020. As the only certified provider of nuclear automation services in the country, HOLI has a monopoly in this subsector.

    In the railway sector they hold a 30% market share, and they do not expect further increases in market share. Long-term organic revenue growth is likely to be 5%, primarily coming from after-sale services. However, they are actively researching new products such as CBTC (Communications-based train control) in subways, smart systems on highways, etc. If these products gain traction, which they should, then growth will be higher. Also, the company proved to have a great competitive advantage in the high-speed railway field as they are 1 of the 3 approved providers in 300-350km/h segment and 200-250km/h and the largest company in terms of ATP (on board equipment) sets.

    In their 'Smart factories' subsegment, they provide solutions to accelerate product development cycles for large white goods companies like Haier. They provide integrated data collection products like SCADA (Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition), data utilisation and analysing services to understand the application situations, designing the system architecture, data management and so on, being the largest company in terms of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition. Another example of this subsegment of industrial automation would be their contract with Diaobignshan where they used to collect data to build a factory virtually and rapidly iterated designs to optimise efficiencies at low cost. They provide after-build services such as combustion optimization, equipment monitoring and maintenance, etc. This segment generates real tangible returns for customers, with higher production efficiencies and lower cost. However, it's worth noting that some of their revenue in this segment comes from fossil fuel companies as well, so a surge in renewable builds could see revenue dropping even more than it would appear at first glance.

    All the segments that Hollysys operates in have been growing impressively for the past few years, at a rate above even the high growth of the general Chinese economy. To fuel their supply-side based growth, fossil fuel plants have been opening across China at an unprecedented rate, while China's high-speed railway network has gone from virtually non-existent 15 years ago to being 2/3rds of the entire world's track length. As Chinese wages rise, the pressure on factory owners to automate is also increasing to stave off price competition from South-East Asian competitors.

    So far, the situation all looks good from a high-level company view. But when you either zoom out to look at the macro environment, or in to look at the specifics of the business, cracks begin showing.

    The situation with the Chinese government is tricky – and not for the reason you might think. Despite the fact that most of HOLI's revenue comes from state-owned entities, and it's monopolistic market position also dependent on the government, we do not see the government introducing competition to the market to drive down prices as a big threat. China has applied a protect-and-nurture strategy for domestic companies in every sector you could think of very successfully, creating such behemoths as Tencent and Alibaba. You prevent superior foreign competition from entering the market, and choose a winner for each sector, allowing it to take monopolistic profits to accelerate the rate of innovation and shorten the timeline that it needs to compete with foreign companies. From the past decade, Hollysys is the chosen winner for the sectors that it competes in, and that the threat of increased competition due to the Chinese government is virtually non-existent. Companies like Siemens or ABB still have objectively superior products and will likely continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Until HOLI catches up with them and can compete in a global free market, the handholding from the government will not end.

    However, while the Chinese government will not introduce competition to the markets that HOLI competes in, whether it will continue to incentivise those markets is another question entirely. In a recent Chinese government conference, China firmly stated that it would become carbon neutral by 2060 (pay attention: NET carbon emissions will be equal to 0, and not TOTAL emissions, which is quite different). I have no doubt that this will happen – the largest benefit of a single-party state is that these long-term plans can be set in stone and executed upon decades in advance, something which China has been doing since the ways of Deng. And quite obviously, there is consequently a very real threat to the heavily polluting fossil fuel-based power plants that HOLI derives a lot of its revenue from. Banning the construction of new fossil fuel plants is an obvious way to reach this target, but whether China chooses to do this or to find alternative methods of cutting net emissions is less obvious. I would like to remind you that coal consumption, which fell from 2013 to 2017, driven in part by China's willingness to significantly improve air quality, has started to rise again in more recent years as the economy suffered a severe backlash forcing the government to stimulate industrial growth.

    Although the government has not released some specifics regarding how these emissions will be reduced, it is thought that this was strongly desired to allow the Communist Party to have the flexibility necessary in the short term to support the economic recovery following the pandemic. Renewables cannot as yet compete with fossil fuels in lifetime cost of operation, and building more fossil plants is a tried-and-true method of giving the economy a shot in the arm, something that any economy could do with right now.

    At the same time, future constructions of railways are also uncertain. Most of the tracks laid in recent years is economically unviable, with low demand and a poor populace in these tier-3 cities laying a cap on ticket prices. However, the government views high-speed rail as a socially beneficial alternative to coaches and planes for the hundreds of millions of migrant workers that travel between large cities and the country every holiday, and thus heavily subsidises losses and encouraged more construction in the last 5-year plan. Whether continued construction in both railways and fossil fuel power plants will happen is up in the air and something that we will see in the next 5-year plan, due in March 2021.

    A natural response to the threat to fossil fuel power generation automation would be to ask whether Hollysys could simply transition to automating the renewable power generation sector. My research indicates that this is not realistic. The various wind turbines, solar panels, dams, etc. they do not require a complex level of automation like that used in a refinery plan. The latter are huge power plants that occupy hundreds of square meters which require automated processes to obtain the greatest result with the least effort.

    📷 https://postimg.cc/JtMhBQRR

    image from https://www.e-education.psu.edu/eme801/node/4701

    While as regards the structures and machines used for renewable energy, they do not require complicate automated processes such as those used in oil and petrochemical plants; the entire process is enclosed within the turbine itself (as far as wind energy is concerned), so that it becomes almost impossible to state that these types of energy require any automation processes. In the image below I have shown you what the inside of a wind turbine looks like, which differs drastically from the previous image of the refinery plant.

    📷 https://postimg.cc/p9K2mm79

    image from https://www.energy.gov/eere/wind/inside-wind-turbine

    A field of application, which is very different from the one discussed above, could be to offer automation processes for the companies that produce the different solar panels, wind turbines and so on. This, however, has nothing to do with the automation processes used in oil and petrochemical businesses; here we are dealing with real industrial processes which cannot be connected to the former since they are completely different fields.

    The problem is that we are not sure if Hollysys can provide such solutions and even if it is able, we do not know the time needed for this transition. One of Hollysys' strengths was its vast knowledge in the oil industry, which allowed it to keep various competitors away, but this advantage will not be reflected in the renewable sector since they have no knowledge in this field and, and from what I've seen, the company has not shown any interest in this sector, neither from the various conference calls held in the past nor from the annual or quarterly reports, which suggests management is either unaware of the threat or incapable of addressing it. The fact that management accounts for some fossil fuel plant automation revenue in 'smart factories' suggests the latter, and that they're trying to make it look less serious than it is.

    We are not saying that the company is in danger of failure, since it still has two other revenue streams to rely on, but we will certainly see a decrease in revenues (in 2019, 41% of revenues derive from automation sector, of those 41%, 40% are from oil industries) and a deterioration in the relationship with the Chinese government.

    Overall, the conclusion can be drawn that if the coming 5-year plan is unfavourable to Hollysys, the company will face serious setbacks to its short and long-term prospects as the market is pricing in, while a positive 5-year plan that encourages construction of both fossil fuel plants and railways would be hugely accretive to the value of the company. My personal stance is to wait and see what the 5-year plan says – with a small-cap Chinese stock like this, the market is unlikely to immediately react and fully reprice Hollysys on positive news, allowing me a chance to get in after the future is secure even if I miss out some gains. The uncertainty regarding the possible downside to a company is something I hate, although if you have more stomach for risk and think the 5-year plan will be friendly to HOLI, you could jump in now.

    If you are positive enough to jump in now you may find interesting that in my positive-scenario-model, I therefore attribute to the automation sector a CAGR of about 5% for the next 10 years, the railway sector a CAGR of 5-6% (assuming continued construction in the next 5-year plan) and attribute to the nuclear sector a CAGR of 12-15% given the enormous progress made in this particular sector in the last 10 years. The final stock price would be something between $25-30 but only if Hollysys starts to be valued with the same multiples of its peers and Chinese government postpones its good intentions to reduce their carbon impact on the rest of the world in order to sustain Chinese's economy recovery.

    Other important facts concerning the company:

    • About 3 months ago the ex-CEO Baiqing Shao was changed, who has held the role for more than 7 years and was one of the founders of the company, with a member of the company's directors, Mr Colin Shang. The reasons for this decision were not entirely transparent, as the company initially stated that the CEO had left office and remained on good terms with the company, but in the latest quarterly report the company states the following: "Dispute in connection with the ownership of Ace Lead Profits Limited (" Ace Lead ") may adversely impact us." We were made aware of a shareholder's dispute regarding ownership of one of the principal shareholders. In August 2016, Mr. Changli Wang, the then sole shareholder of Ace Lead, one of our record shareholders, transferred his single share in Ace Lead to Mr. Baiqing Shao for a nominal consideration. As of the date hereof, Ace Lead owns 4,144,223 ordinary shares of our company, representing 6.9% of the outstanding shares of our company. We were recently notified that Mr. Wang indicated that, as Mr. Shao had stepped down as the chairman and chief executive officer of our company since July 2020, he should no longer be entitled to any share in Ace Lead and he should immediately transfer the share in Ace Lead to one or more persons designated by Mr. Wang. As of the date of this annual report, Mr. Shao has not transferred the share in ACE Lead to any designees of Mr. Wang. We cannot predict the outcome of the dispute. If Mr. Shao refuses to transfer the share in ACE Lead to a person designated by Mr. Wang, the dispute could escalate and litigation may ensue between Mr. Shao and Mr. Wang, and our company may become involved. Any escalation of this dispute, including potential litigation, may cause us to incur significant time, resources and cost if we were to become involved.
      As easily understood this does not seem a "friendly" decision by the old CEO, moreover with 7% of the shares in circulation he can do much more damage to the company by attending the shareholders' meetings, being one of the shareholders with the highest participation .
    • Many impairments of goodwill. The M&E refers to two companies they bought, Concord and Bond. They are based in Singapore and Malaysia. But their business spread in south east Asian and middle east. Before COVID-19, the macro-economy situation in those areas was not good, and then COVID-19 brought new challenges. Therefore, their management expects future lower profit in M&E. They also do not give guidance on the development of M&E since the company think risk control is the key focus, rather than revenue growth.
    • When they got asked what they thought about Trump will to delist Chinese companies from U.S. exchanges they said that they are evaluating recent issues that may potentially affect their status as a Nasdaq-listed company and it is prudent to say that they do not exclude that option. So, no real answer was given about that, which makes me think that they do not have any plan for the near future.
    • IR is slow to respond to investors. I sent two emails, the first of which was generally positive and the second follow-up which raised some of the issues discussed in this article. IR has not responded to the second for more than a month, which makes me very uncomfortable.

    Also, I wanted to give you a feedback on what Hollysys has to say about this matter but investor relator has not replied to my email for more than 1 month, this gives you a clue on how bad their communication with investors is. On the other hand, I have scheduled another call with one of their competitors on 18 November to talk about what can be done for companies like these to keep up with the almost sure transition that China will experience in the following years.

    submitted by /u/InfiniteValueptr
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    What are examples of "cannot-fail" stocks that ended up crashing and staying down?

    Posted: 31 Oct 2020 01:53 AM PDT

    There are some companies today that, at a glance, might just seem too big to fail (say, google, microsoft, apple, amazon, alibaba, etc).

    This made me wonder, have there been examples in the past of similarly large companies that everyone/most assumed couldn't fail, but ended up crashing down and staying there? I'm not necessarily asking about companies that had comparable assets, but rather about companies that were similarly perceived by many as "too big to fail".

    submitted by /u/glance1234
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    Does the price of selling call options indicate how optimistic speculators are about the stock?

    Posted: 30 Oct 2020 11:28 PM PDT

    I'm learning the basics of selling call options. I'm wondering what exactly determines the price. When you see a high or low sell price for a call option, what does it indicate to you?

    To make it easier, I'm offering 3 example stocks below. For purposes of comparison I've set all the following to be the same:

    • Same Expiration date: 11/13
    • Similar strike price: around 110% of the current share price.

    NIO:

    • Current Share Price: $30.74
    • Expiring date: 11/13
    • Strike Price: $33 (110% of current share price)
    • Sell call price: $1.63
    • Sell call price is 5.3% of current share price.

    Southwest (LUV)

    • Current Share Price: $39.53
    • Expiring date: 11/13
    • Strike Price: $43 (109% of current share price)
    • Sell call price: $0.68
    • Sell call price is 1.7% of current share price.

    Plug Power (PLUG)

    • Current Share Price: $14
    • Expiring date: 11/13
    • Strike Price: $15.5 (110% of current share price)
    • Sell call price: $0.87
    • Sell call price is 6.2% of current share price.

    What can we determine from this information:

    Company Sell Call Price as % of Current Share Price
    NIO 5.3%
    South West (LUV) 1.7%
    Plug Power (PLUG) 6.2%

    Like can we say investors are 3-3.5x more excited about NIO and PLUG compared to LUV? Are NIO and PLUG similar in terms of their ability to reach the target call price? What insights can we extract here about how the market feels about the stock's prospect for the next 2 weeks?

    submitted by /u/r2002
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    Can anyone recommend a broker for a UK/US dual citizen living in the UK

    Posted: 31 Oct 2020 02:10 AM PDT

    Hi /r/investing, hope you're all doing okay after a rough week for the stock market. I'm new to this subreddit, and also pretty new to investing as well. I have been searching for a broker that is right for my situation.

    As stated in the title, I'm a dual citizen, British-American. I have lived most of my life in the UK (and my whole family is British) and have never had a residence in the United States. I am self employed and file my taxes with both HMRC and the IRS (though have never actually paid tax in the US due to the foreign income exclusion).

    So anyway, I have a fair bit of spare cash and wanted to get into investing, but given my complicated tax situation, it's been a bit tough. I recently opened up a stock and shares ISA with a British broker, Hargreaves Lansdown. There are a lot of things I like about them, but their fees are a bit high for my liking, and trading invidual stock is expensive. I also can't currently trade US stocks because they said I'd need to send a W9.

    I really wanted to open an account with Vanguard, but the US site requires an American address (which I don't have), and the UK site specifically states it CANNOT be used by US citizens. So I feel a little stuck.

    There's a also the tax complications with tax-advantaged accounts, like the ISA I currently have, or the Roth IRA that I would like to open at some point. They would not shield me from taxes in the other country I'm pretty sure.

    Going forward, I feel like I'll probably want one British and one American broker. So I guess I'm looking for recommendations for both (since I don't see myself being with HL long-term) and advice about steps I may need to take to open an account with a US broker.

    Thanks for reading, any advice or suggestions would be greatly appreciated!

    Edit: I would like to give more info about my intented trading/investing strategies etc. but for the time being I don't really know. All I can say for sure it that I'm it for the long-term, and would not be looking to be trading with any kind of frequency. I definitely want a good chunk of my money in low-fee index funds, but I certainly want to buy individual stocks too, mostly American, that I intent to hold long-term.

    submitted by /u/chris_899
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    Which emerging market country to invest for the decade?

    Posted: 30 Oct 2020 10:17 PM PDT

    Given valuations, I think emerging markets (with its growing population) will be a great place to invest. I have several on my list (Indonesia, Vietnam, Nigeria, Brazil, and Argentina). Aside from investing into a broad index as many countries have an array of infrastructure and stable political system, what country would you invest in?

    submitted by /u/therivera
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    Uber's Driver Misclassification Battle Spreads To Illinois

    Posted: 30 Oct 2020 10:19 PM PDT

    https://www.law360.com/illinois/articles/1324366/uber-s-driver-misclassification-battle-spreads-to-illinois

    Uber's Driver Misclassification Battle Spreads To Illinois Law360 (October 30, 2020, 4:52 PM EDT) -- Uber is facing another worker misclassification class action, this time in Illinois, where a driver claims the company denied him minimum wage, overtime and reimbursements in violation of state law....

    submitted by /u/skysmoker
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    $TPR had Q1 earnings yesterday with reported EPS of $0.83. In reality it's much lower. Someone show me if I'm doing my math right on this.

    Posted: 30 Oct 2020 02:34 PM PDT

    Their first quarter of their fiscal year wasn't as bad as I thought it'd be but it wasn't amazing either considering retail is still suffering hard from COVID-19 and less spending due to issues with the recession we're in. But they reported $0.83 diluted EPS. The year ago period was $0.07 EPS. Except:

    -They got a $92M benefit from the CARES Act and they utilized a net operating loss (NOL) carryback claim.

    -SGA costs dropped massively. Which is good and as a long term shareholder something I want to see continue happening. SGA is bloated and I want to see it drop more in the future.

    -Interest expense rose 57%, drawing down on debt due to COVID and to have liquidity for the various expenses that COVID created. Understandable.

    -Operating earnings per share (277.9M diluted shares outstanding) was $0.72. But reported EPS was $0.84. How? Because of the tax benefit and one time help from the CARES Act.

    -Pre-tax income was $185.4M You can do this by taking net income and adding income tax expense to it. Take $185.4M and subtract $92M from it. Why? Because that CARES Act benefit is one time. It's not what the company earned through its operations. So you get $93.4M. Divide that by the 277.9M shares outstanding and you get $0.33 EPS.

    -And you can make it harder for the company also. If taxed at the corporate rate of 21%, then EPS is lower. Take 21% from $93.4M and you get $19,614,000. So $73,786,000 was their net income if you use the current corporate tax rate. Now EPS is $0.26. Not $0.83. $0.83 was triple what they made with one time items being taken out.

    submitted by /u/howtoreadspaghetti
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    Ant Group's IPO sees record $3 trillion in retail demand

    Posted: 30 Oct 2020 11:05 AM PDT

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ant-group-ipo/ant-groups-ipo-sees-record-3-trillion-in-retail-demand-idUSKBN27E1VU

    HONG KONG (Reuters) - Retail investors placed bids for a record $3 trillion of shares in Ant Group Co Ltd's initial public offering (IPO), set to be the world's biggest, as mom-and-pop savers bet on demand for its financial services in China.

    The Shanghai leg of the IPO drew about 19 trillion yuan ($2.8 trillion) of bids from retail investors, or 872 times the number of shares earmarked for them, a company filing to the stock exchange showed on Thursday.

    The Hong Kong tranche got HK$1.3 trillion ($168 billion) in bids, or 389 times the shares on offer, said people with knowledge of the matter on Friday, declining to be identified as the information is not public yet.

    submitted by /u/sierratrading
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    What is the likelihood of SBE - Chargepoint deal falling through?

    Posted: 30 Oct 2020 11:15 PM PDT

    In your opinion what is this likelihood of this dealing falling through?

    What would happen to SBE stock were this to happen?

    How risky of an investment is it at this time?

    Curious to hear thoughts. Would love to have a discussion with people on both sides of the argument + hear a little bit of devil's advocate

    submitted by /u/tom13880
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    Seriously worried about oil

    Posted: 31 Oct 2020 02:28 AM PDT

    I started dollar cost averaging into BP and RDS back in early April. This is my first year of investing and one of my first buys was BP/Shell because of the dividends and the March drop.

    I'm not someone from WSB who thinks stocks can only go up and I told myself for a potential 12 months of losses. I was fine with it at the time because I felt I was getting paid 5% in dividends to persevere through the hard times. When the times return to somewhat normality, I'll have have a great ROI from DCA during the crappy months.

    Well fast forward 6-7 months and my oil position is continuing to drop and it's continuing to eat away at my new-investor insecurities. BP is now at 25 year lows. I was prepared for losses when I didn't have any losses, and now I have losses I want to sell-up and hide it under the mattress.

    Any words of advice?

    Is anyone else invested in BP/RDS?

    submitted by /u/AlbionArguru
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    US elections, Covid-19, and China create uncertainty in the market

    Posted: 30 Oct 2020 03:25 PM PDT

    "It is not certain that everything is uncertain" - Blaise Pascal, French mathematician & philosopher

    Here are this week's main stories:

    1. Supreme Court heightens sense of uncertainty around U.S. presidential election

    There is an old adage that the market dislikes uncertainty. With the Supreme Court going back and forth on election rulings (allowing North Carolina and Pennsylvania to accept absentee ballots after election day but not extending the same verdict to Wisconsin), increasing uncertainty has brewed regarding how our nation's highest court will side. Given the Court's 6-3 conservative majority and that 3 of the current justices were appointed by President Trump, it is hard to say whether or not a potential Biden victory could be delayed or even overturned. However, the market could see a positive rally with an overwhelming Biden victory, the first sign of which will be a Biden win in Florida.

    2. U.S. is expected to remain open despite spiking Covid-19 cases and the shutdown of multiple European countries

    Over the past couple weeks, the U.S. has experienced a new high in daily Covid-19 cases and seen the shutdown of France, Germany, and Switzerland. However, U.S. hospitalizations have not moved significantly, leading the market to expect that the U.S. will remain open. If hospitalizations are to increase in a meaningful way, the market will most likely dip since bottlenecks in our hospitals would increase pressure for another round of shutdowns.

    3. China aims to reduce reliance on foreign powers as indicated by the country's 5th Plenum

    Every year, the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) gathers to decide upon and release their economic and social policy goals for the next 5 years in what is called a Plenum. China's 5th Plenum occurred this week and centered around the country's desire to reduce economic reliance on foreign powers. China currently produces just under 40% of its GDP domestically and wants to move closer to the 2/3 figure commonly seen among developed countries. This will have significant implications on global supply chains as China's nearly 1.4B people consume fewer and fewer international products, namely higher value goods such as cars and smartphones.

    Also mentioned was China's desire to reduce emissions and become carbon free by 2060. The CCP has indicated that China is currently at peak emissions and will be moving down over the next 15 years as a result of a further push into green energy. The motivations for this move are twofold: 1. reduce reliance on foreign energy (e.g., Oil) and 2. increase the quality of life for its citizens.

    submitted by /u/pavefinance
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    Earnings Reports: The oil giants

    Posted: 30 Oct 2020 06:22 AM PDT

    After the positive yesterday's reports published by the leading tech companies, 2 of the largest oil corporation published their reports!

    Why do we talk about it after the reports published?

    There is a certain advantage when a company publishes its earnings report before the market opens, a proper analysis of the situation combined with the ability to understand the report data is like playing poker when we know we can see most of the cards of the other players at the table!

    💎Exxon Mobil (XOM)

    The company is one of the world's largest companies by revenue.

    The company already published the report showed better results in terms of earnings per stock (EPS) and revenue.

    From 1996 to 2017 varied from the first to sixth-largest publicly traded company by market capitalization.

    Earlier this month, the company announced that it will cut over 1,600 jobs in Europe as a result of the Covid, this may seem like bad news but layoffs often push the stock price upward and attract most institutional investors.

    Despite the global trend of reducing crude oil dependence, the company does not appear to be significantly affected by this in the coming years, keeping the company as a must-have asset in every portfolio.

    Employees: Over 71,000

    Revenue in 2019: $265 billion

    Q3 Revenue Forecast: $45 billion, result: $46.2 billion

    💎Chevron

    The company already published the report, EPS came extremely positive (forecast: -$0.23 Vs the actual result: $0.11) but the revenue went a bit below forecast, not something that will affect the stock price and certainly not in the mid/long term.

    One of the successor companies of Standard Oil is headquartered in San Ramon, California, and active in more than 180 countries.

    Same like Exxon, it can take at least a decade until the green energy trend will significantly hit the company's profitability and even then, the company is an extremely big corporation with almost unlimited resources which of course helps them adopt other profit models and units.

    Employees: Over 48,000

    Revenue in 2019: $146 billion

    Q3 Revenue Forecast: $25.6 billion, result: $24.4 billion

    submitted by /u/giraffeteacher
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    What is the best way for stable short term modest growth right now?

    Posted: 30 Oct 2020 11:03 PM PDT

    I have been comparing the benefits of keeping a lump sum of money needed in 6mths for a down payment in a savings account (0.6%) vs 6mth CD (0.4%) vs a bond fund. I can accept a little risk, hence my thoughts on a bond fund, but I don't have enough experience with this and looking for advice.

    submitted by /u/OrogenicSubduction
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    INDF ETF - new way to invest in India - thoughts?

    Posted: 30 Oct 2020 10:12 AM PDT

    INDF ETF just listed. It's a new way to invest in India and through a basket of Indian financial services companies. Indian banks and financial companies have been stock market darlings for the last decade but are down this year because of Covid (conversely, pharma stocks are up big). It's an interesting way to play the reversal if there is a vaccine/GDP growth comes back. Anyone trading it?

    submitted by /u/EMInvestor
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    Digital Turbine ($APPS)

    Posted: 30 Oct 2020 09:59 AM PDT

    I'm hoping someone might be able to help me understand what happened/is happening with Digital Turbine ($APPS).

    Yesterday after hours, Digital Turbine posted their quarterly earnings which seemed overall positive:

    • $70.9m revenue (116% increase)
    • Non-GAAP adjusted income $0.15 per share (estimates were ~0.11)
    • Gross margin increased to 42% from 38%
    • They're projecting even greater revenue and adjusted EPS for next quarter.

    What I don't understand is why is the stock down ~14% the day after a positive earning call. It also fell immediately in after hour trading, too. Are there signs one can look for to indicate what might be going on? I recognize it's a down day in the market overall but still seems unexpected from my limited understanding.

    submitted by /u/RidingNerd_E
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