Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- AMC Theatres could run out of money by the end of the year
- JP Morgan raises target price of $40 for NIO
- Market timing in the late bubble?
- Fidelity's latest report says portfolios should consider 5% Bitcoin allocation
- NVIDIA Arm acquisition might be blocked by UK government
- Loop tumbles 30% after Hindenburg calls company a 'recycled' smoke and mirrors show
- Bill Ackman's PSTH
- JPMorgan Chase 2020 Q3 Earnings
- CTSO - my lotto ticket
- Free bond screening brokerage
- New Memo from Howard Marks: Coming into Focus
- Q.E easing and lowering interest rate in emerging country's currency rate
- McAfee Going Public Next Week (MCFE) (Nasdaq)
- Considering reinvesting Nvidia into Coeur Mining
- $DAL Q3 Earnings
- Apple Reveals Four iPhone 12 Models, Heralding ‘New Era’ for 5G Technology
- Honest Comparison: Bonds vs Bourbon
- Swing Opportunities
- Cyber/data security investing
- Equity Put/Call Ratio Signal
- Indenture / Credit Agreement
- Thoughts on Kiromic BioPharma IPO?
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 13 Oct 2020 05:10 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| AMC Theatres could run out of money by the end of the year Posted: 13 Oct 2020 07:01 AM PDT https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/13/media/amc-theatres-money-movies/index.html "Boosting liquidity won't be easy without a return to business-as-usual. It's exploring additional debt financing, renegotiations with landlords, and even potential sales of assets. But AMC threw cold water on those options. "There is a significant risk that these potential sources of liquidity will not be realized or that they will be insufficient to generate the material amounts of additional liquidity that would be required until the company is able to achieve more normalized levels of operating revenues," AMC said." [link] [comments]  |
| JP Morgan raises target price of $40 for NIO Posted: 14 Oct 2020 02:10 AM PDT JP Morgan analysts led by Nick Lai raised their price target on NIO sharply to $40 in a report released on Wednesday. NIO shares closed at $21.62 on Tuesday, and JP Morgan's price target means NIO has 85% upside potential. NIO shares went up by more than 7 percent in pre-market trading on Wednesday. JP Morgan sharply raises NIO price target to $40, representing 85% upside potential-cnTechPost JP Morgan's last rating on NIO was Neutral and was made on June 21, when the price target was $14. In its latest report, JP Morgan gave NIO an Overweight rating and admitted that "we missed the stock's major rally YTD." The report said Nio remains attractive from a long term perspective. We are upgrading the stock to OW from Neutral and set a new Jun-21 PT of USD40 based on 3.0x 2025E EV to sales. Admittedly, we missed the stock's major rally YTD. Instead of trying to justify a higher PT, we review our long term investment thesis based on our bullish top-down sector view, introduce 2025 earnings projection and draw implication to the current stock price. We come to the conclusion that Nio remains attractive from a long term perspective. We project the company to earn a ~7% market share in passenger EV market by 2025 or specifically ~30% share in the premium space which Nio focuses on. In the near term, key catalysts would include: 1) anticipated solid 3Q results in mid-November, where we forecast GPM to further expand to ~12% vs. 8% in 2Q20. 2) Robust order backlog, in particular, the newly launched EC6 crossover model for which the wait time is around eight weeks due to initial productionramp and very strong demand. 3) A new sedan model scheduled to debut on "Nio Day" in December which should further enhance the company's current product portfolio (of two SUVs - ES8 and ES6, and one crossover - EC6). Following the introduction of our 2023-25 earnings forecasts, we lift our Jun-21 PT to USD40 based on 3.0x EV to 2025E sales, the same valuation approach (of 3.0x EV to 2025E sales) we apply to Xpeng Auto, another Chinese EV start-up. This also presents a meaningful discount to Tesla's current 5.1x EV to 2025E sales, which we believe is reasonable considering Tesla's technology leadership globally and market share momentum especially in China. Previously, we followed average of three approaches in Nio's valuation analysis including EV/sales, PER and EV/EBITDA, which gives us a PT of USD36. Considering consistency of valuation methodology across EV OEMs under coverage, we now move Nio's approach to EV/sales. Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks NIO Inc. (Overweight; Price Target: $40.00) Opportunities in 2021: (1) Rising NEV penetration with an emerging and structural shift from "B" to "C" – with Tesla's localized Model 3 and aggressive pricing; we see an increasing (and unexpected) trend where more EV buyers are individuals, rather than corporates or individuals living in cities with purchase quotas – this structural wave could broaden EVs' addressable market, but lead to faster concentration in the EV business; NIO could benefit as long as it stays within the top 10 by market share. (2) The extension of the NEV subsidy program toward 2022, where the battery swap business model is covered by the government's subsidy scheme, is encouraging. (3) We project a meaningful pickup in new model launches, especially in 4Q20, along with the new model, EC6. The new sedan model is scheduled to debut on "Nio Day" in December which should further enhance the company's current product portfolio (of two SUVs- ES8 and ES6 and one crossover- EC6). Valuation Following the introduction of our 2023-25 earnings forecasts, we lift our Jun-21 PT to USD40 based on 3.0x EV to 2025E sales, the same valuation approach (of 3.0x EV to 2025E sales) we apply to Xpeng Auto, another Chinese EV start-up. This also presents a meaningful discount to Tesla's current 5.1x EV to 2025E sales, which we believe is reasonable considering Tesla's technology leadership globally and market share momentum especially in China. Previously, we followed average of three approaches in Nio's valuation analysis including EV/sales, PER and EV/EBITDA, which gives us a PT of USD36. Considering consistency of valuation methodology across EV OEMs under coverage, we now move Nio's approach to EV/sales. Risks to rating and price target Downside risks include: Worse-than-expected execution and delivery of vehicles; Worse-than-expected overall auto market sales/EV demand; and worse-than-expected competition from rivals with products at similar price points. Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation Investment Thesis Opportunities in 2021: (1) Rising NEV penetration with an emerging and structural shift from "B" to "C" – with Tesla's localized Model 3 and aggressive pricing; we see an increasing (and unexpected) trend where more EV buyers are individuals, rather than corporates or individuals living in cities with purchase quotas – this structural wave could broaden EVs' addressable market, but lead to faster concentration in the EV business; NIO could benefit as long as it stays within the top 10 by market share. (2) The extension of the NEV subsidy program toward 2022, where the battery swap business model is covered by the government's subsidy scheme, is encouraging. (3) We project a meaningful pickup in new model launches, especially in 4Q20, along with the new model, EC6. The new sedan model is scheduled to debut on "Nio Day" in December which should further enhance the company's current product portfolio (of two SUVs- ES8 and ES6 and one crossover- EC6). Valuation Our Jun-21 PT of US$40 is based on 3.0x EV to 2025E sales- the same valuation approach (of 3.0x EV to 2025E sales) we apply to Xpeng Auto, another Chinese EV start-up. This also presents a meaningful discount to Tesla's current 5.1x EV to 2025E sales which we believe is reasonable considering Tesla's technology leadership globally and market share momentum especially in China. Sorry if formatting is off, on mobile app [link] [comments]  |
| Market timing in the late bubble? Posted: 14 Oct 2020 03:40 AM PDT TL;DR: I ran a series late-bubble scenarios playing out for different investor temperaments and behaviors and and ranked them. Net result is that cost-averaging is probably best you can do unless you have near-perfect timing, but the temptation to timing remains when one smells a bubble. Context: To me we're obviously in a tech-driven stock bubble... strong positive feedback on prices, massive increase in casual trading, new-era stories about the COVID winners, outright frauds being blown up by Hindenburg... while market as a whole has shot way past earnings and economic activity. For my temperament, buying now is out of the question, but I'm struggling with just how much to stay in the market. Many will obviously say that you can't time the market, but I find (a) I'm tempted to take what gains have happened so far, and (b) I'm scared of the next pop and potential "lost years" waiting for markets to recover. I'm not looking for your advice on what to do, but rather feedback on realism of the following investor scenario or any scenarios you would add. #1: Buys Near Bottom, Sells Near Peak AKA "For timing the market you have to be right twice, once to buy and once to sell" (if already invested: right once to sell, then again to re-buy) Temperament: value investor, immune to fear, FOMO, greed. This investor has "dry powder" and snaps up crash bargains below fair value, then holds onto them through the bubble, sells off to build up cash position when approaching peak bubble. Investor is probably already rich to have the cash-on-hand and has a sense of security and temperament gives them detachment from the bubble optimism and crash pessimism... and some luck to not overshoot the peak or buy too early/late in the crash. This investor is however likely to miss out on companies with break-out growth, due to emphasis on value. With peak 100 and crash to 60: buys in at 40, sells at 90, buys in again at 65 post-crash. This investor makes roughly market return through the boom... but skips the loss of the crash. #2: Cost-Averaged Time In The Market AKA "Time in the market beats timing the market" Temperament: lazy, doesn't want to worry about the market. Behavior: This investor buys a bit every month from their salary, with a long horizon to retirement. Buys at all stages: early boom (50), late boom (80), top of market (100), bottom of market (60), early recovery (70), late recovery (90) This investor makes the market return, cost-averaged. Not quite "lump sum invested in 1980" return, but decent nonetheless. #3: Sells Slightly Early Pre-Peak, Buys Slightly Late Post-Bottom AKA "Sell early, buy late" / "Buy late, sell early" Temperament: value investor with fears of overpricing, but lacking optimism after a crash This investor buys during a run up (avoids FOMO/regret), then gets fearful of late bubble overpricing and reduces holdings. The market then sees further gains for several months to a year before crashing. Soon after the crash the investor sees better value, and starts to shift back into stocks, but is late for the early phase of a quick recovery. With peak 100 and crash to 60: buys in during 40-80 boom, sells at 80, misses 80-100 climb, misses 100-60 crash, misses 60-80 recovery, and buys back at 80 for next boom. At best they do similar to time-in-the-market investor by missing late-bubble and early-recovery gains negated the benefits of skipping the crash. #4: Sells Slightly Early Pre-Peak, Buys Slightly Early Pre-Bottom Temperament: value investor with fear of overpricing, but overly-optimistic after a decline Behavior: This investor buys during run-up, then gets fearful late bubble and reduces holdings, missing the late-bubble gains. Soon after the crash the investor sees better value, and increases holdings... during a 2-year year declining market. With peak 100 and crash to 60: buys in during 40-80 boom, sells at 80, misses 80-100 climb, misses 100-80 crash, buys at 80, sees 80-60 decline, sees slow climb back to 80 new boom. This investor does similarly to the previous one if they end up buy into the crash at the same level as #3 buys in post-crash. #5: Buys at Peak and Holds Temperament: FOMO investor that waits until others have made gains, with strong new-era belief This investor buys near/at the peak due to FOMO and new-era optimism, and intends to hold no matter what. Bubble pops but investor holds on through the decline, waiting patiently for 3-10 years to attain a new high. With peak 100 and crash to 60: buys in late at 90, sees climb to 100, sees crash to 60, waits for years as it climbs back to 90. This investor sees several "lost years" while real corporate earnings gradually catch up to the high expectations of the bubble. #6: Buys at Peak, Sells at Bottom Temperament: FOMO investor that waits until others have made gains, with weak new-era belief This investor stays out early, buys late in boom out of FOMO / regret / new-era optimism, sells out of despair at worst of the bust, re-buys out of hope once recovery is obvious. May even have recognized the bubble and intended to get out just before the crash (like #4), but holds too long due and sells at the bottom. With peak 100 and crash to 60: buys in late at 90, sees climb to 100, sells after crash at 60, buys again after climb to 80. This investor makes terrible negative returns in the market. [link] [comments]  |
| Fidelity's latest report says portfolios should consider 5% Bitcoin allocation Posted: 13 Oct 2020 06:26 PM PDT
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| NVIDIA Arm acquisition might be blocked by UK government Posted: 14 Oct 2020 04:23 AM PDT https://www.slashgear.com/nvidia-arm-acquisition-might-be-blocked-by-uk-government-12642155/ Japanese conglomerate SoftBank has been looking for someone to acquire its semiconductor designer Arm and although it finally settled on NVIDIA, that deal may still fall through at least in one country. The UK government is reportedly preparing to intervene and block the acquisition if necessary on the grounds that NVIDIA buying up Arm could not only endanger its citizens' jobs but also threaten the country's sovereignty over one of its very few technology champions. Cambridge-based Arm, formerly ARM Holdings, was an independent company until it was acquired by Japan's SoftBank Group just last 2016. Arm, the owner and designer of the world's most used processor technology for mobile and embedded computing, was able to retain its original business model and operations under SoftBank's ownership. There are, however, concerns that things might not be the same with NVIDIA holding the reins. The UK is particularly concerned about the effects the acquisition would have on the country's economy and sovereignty. As a UK-based company, Arm is naturally one of the country's prized possessions and it won't simply allow it to be handed over without much scrutiny. NVIDIA, of course, has promised to keep the status quo as far as Arm's business model is concerned. It even committed to turning the UK into a global center for AI research and excellence which could help strengthen the country's economy and prestige. Some UK officials, however, are not buying it at face value. NVIDIA's acquisition of Arm could face similar scrutiny from other regulators in the US and EU as it would give NVIDIA a competitive edge over its rivals. The potential for taking advantage of that to the detriment of rivaling Arm customers is too great to ignore. The deal is valued at $40 billion or 30 billion GBP. ----------------------------------- What are your guys' thoughts on this. I currently have NVDA in my portfolio and still view it as a good company even if this takeover falls flat, in fact I personally think it may be better for them if it did. I think the price tag is quite high. Interested in hearing other peoples thoughts, any ideas how to hedge against this deal falling through? [link] [comments]  |
| Loop tumbles 30% after Hindenburg calls company a 'recycled' smoke and mirrors show Posted: 13 Oct 2020 06:33 AM PDT After taking aim at Nikola several weeks ago in a move that severely dented the EV maker's share price, short-selling firm Hindenburg is back with a scathing report on Loop Industries (NASDAQ:LOOP). "Loop Industries has never generated revenue, yet calls itself a technology innovator with a 'proven' solution that is 'leading the sustainable plastic revolution,' Our research indicates that Loop is smoke and mirrors with no viable technology." "Loop refers to itself as a technology company whose 'mission is to accelerate the world's shift toward sustainable PET plastic and polyester fiber and away from our dependence on fossil fuels.'" "In other words, the company claims to have discovered how to turn worthless trash into pure gold, a feat that multi-billion chemical companies such as DuPont, Dow Chemical, and 3M have been unable to achieve on a large scale despite years of efforts." "Loop's claimed breakthroughs in PET plastic recycling are fiction. Our investigation into Loop, spanning 6 months, has included speaking with multiple former employees, company partners, polymer/plastic experts, and competitors." "Our investigation points to one conclusion: in the words of a former Loop employee, we simply "don't really think they have the technology.'" "Former employees painted a picture of a chaotic company, whose lead scientists are twenty-something 'liars,' with no relevant work experience other than Loop, that were able to achieve 'impossible' results in a secret second lab that rank-and-file employees weren't allowed to access." "Loop's CEO, who has no specific educational background in chemistry, sought out the help of several convicts to put together Loop's startup capital, according to litigation records. Loop's management has a track record of taking investors on a ride with sweet sounding public company stories that have ended in catastrophic losses." "Loop's partnerships have gone almost nowhere. The company announced a key joint venture in 2018 to build a facility with well-respected PET and chemical company Indorama, but two years later the terms of the deal have yet to even be finalized. Other major consumer plastic brands were unable to confirm to us that their partnerships with Loop had progressed." [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 13 Oct 2020 06:46 PM PDT Hello I was wondering if you guys think PSTH is a good investment. Ackman seems like one of the best investors of our time, especially with his amazing trades during the pandemic, I am wondering what companies he might choose. I thought it would have been AIrBnB but they seem to be doing a IPO.What do you guys think? [link] [comments]  |
| JPMorgan Chase 2020 Q3 Earnings Posted: 13 Oct 2020 05:29 AM PDT Highlights:
Select comments from CEO Jamie Dimon:
Lots of other stuff I plan on reading with my coffee, but the firm overall seems in very good health. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 13 Oct 2020 06:44 AM PDT I usually don't post my trade ideas, but giving this a shot.. Over the last week, I've built myself a position/4 month lottery ticket of 19:1 odds minimum.This post is NOT to encourage others to copy that, but to share my thinking behind it and hope to hear interesting critiques. I may lose all my premium in this position, but its a risk I'm willing to take. As a degen and given my perception of the odds, I gotta do what I gotta do. The trade is long $CTSO call options and stocks. The post has 3 sections -
Thesis:
Bet: I am long 330 (x100) call options at strike $15 for 19Feb21. I bought them for approx. $0.5 per contract. If my view is realized, that should mean bet-payoff is 19:1 (i.e. $9.5 profit). Is this a positive expected value (EV) bet? I don't know, but here's my subjective probabilities:
Expected value per option contract (x100) = 1/6 * (+9.5) + 5/6 * (-0.5) = $1.16 (x100). (If I regard probability is lower by 50%, it is still a positive EV bet of +$0.2) Using Kelly's criterion, given the odds and payoffs, I should bet 12% of my bet stack. (If I regard probability is lower by 50% , I should bet 4% of my stack) I've mitigated some of the risks by also buying some stock since that has no expiry limitations (probability of win = 1/3 since no expiry; bet-payoff with a stop at -50% = 6:1; Kelly's criterion: 22%; with 50% lower probability: 3%) Kelly criterion is just a starting point, I further took into account how much I am comfortable losing and leaving some dry powder for a pull-back. To start with, I've decided to go with an investment of $17k in options right now, and >$100k in stocks. I will upsize/downsize as I get more news, but that's the position for now. I'm not willing to imagine what happens if market views it as an incremental $1.5bn TAM. (You're a voice in my head. No, you're a voice in mine. You're a fucking hallucination, why can't I get rid of you.) Significant Risks:
TL;DR, I think the stock is massively undervalued, given the potential for the company, the upcoming price catalysts, the successful track record against the backdrop of current stock valuations. My options bet has a conservative payoff of 19:1 if I get it right (possibly more), and if not, hopefully the stock moves >20% to make up for the lost premium. P.S. - Hope you enjoyed it, and you feel encouraged to share your DD posts. EDIT: For those interested to play this, think using stocks is probably better than options. Vol is quite high, and options markets are illiquid. Plus you are not subject to expiry limitations/timing issues and the odds are quite good there too. (It took me 4 days to build my calls slowly) [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 14 Oct 2020 01:44 AM PDT So, I am searching around for a bond screener and realized if you want a good one, you need to open an account with a brokerage. So, is there any brokerage out there that allows you to open a free account and use its bond screener? I mostly want to look at the trailing returns and historical prices. [link] [comments]  |
| New Memo from Howard Marks: Coming into Focus Posted: 13 Oct 2020 07:26 AM PDT https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/coming-into-focus.pdf "In his latest memo, Howard Marks walks readers through the unusual characteristics of this year's economy; the impact of Covid-related monetary and fiscal policy actions, including low interest rates, on today's markets; and the possible ramifications of the Fed/Treasury's rescue efforts. What does it all mean for investors who face an environment marked by some of the lowest prospective returns in history? Read Coming into Focus for Marks's perspectives." [link] [comments]  |
| Q.E easing and lowering interest rate in emerging country's currency rate Posted: 13 Oct 2020 03:48 PM PDT Ever since covid-19 happened, government tried all possible ways to prevent economy from turning deflationary. I'm not an expert in economy but I know that such ways devalue the dollar, like when I see franc and pound currency rate, I can see ever since march they've been decreasing but how come in emerging countries like South Korea, the value of dollar started to increase since march. Is it solely because its currency is not reserve currency like franc, pounds and yen? [link] [comments]  |
| McAfee Going Public Next Week (MCFE) (Nasdaq) Posted: 13 Oct 2020 03:46 PM PDT What are your thought about McAfee going public in 22 October ? - Does the Tax Evasion & Fraud from John McAfee scared you about investing in the company ? - Do you think it will be worth investing/gambling ? McAfee will not be something new as we all know, i'm just curious of what you guys think about it in 2020 John McAfee Tax Evasion & Fraud / https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/05/john-mcafee-arrested-after-doj-indicts-crypto-millionaire-for-tax-evasion/ McAfee going public / https://www.barrons.com/articles/cybersecurity-firm-mcafee-is-going-public-again-51601397823 [link] [comments]  |
| Considering reinvesting Nvidia into Coeur Mining Posted: 14 Oct 2020 02:04 AM PDT I have one share of Nvidia and thinking about switching it all to Coeur. Thoughts? From what I'm researching, the value of silver and gold will be going up during these times. I don't see Nvidia becoming an absolute monster and I feel it would be a better investment towards many shares versus just one. I bought one while they were high being a dumb panic buyer then it tanked, now back up profiting some change. I'm still learning. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 13 Oct 2020 06:16 AM PDT Earnings per share: Decreased 242% from past year to $3.30, missing expected $3.30 Revenue: $3.06b, decreased 75% year-over-year, estimated $3.1b Net loss: $5.38b; Net income: $1.5b Cargo revenue $142m, more than $131m expected. Passenger revenue per seat mile: fell 55% to $6.85. CEO is focused on reducing daily cash burn. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/13/delta-air-lines-dal-results-q3-2020.html [link] [comments]  |
| Apple Reveals Four iPhone 12 Models, Heralding ‘New Era’ for 5G Technology Posted: 13 Oct 2020 01:49 PM PDT https://www.wsj.com/articles/apple-event-iphone-12-expected-with-5g-capabilities-11602581403 With few people familiar with the new cellular service, Apple CEO Tim Cook sought to explain why 5G technology would improve iPhone users' experience. PHOTO: BROOKS KRAFT/APPLE By Tim Higgins Updated Oct. 13, 2020 2:47 pm ET PRINT TEXT 95 Apple Inc. AAPL -2.65% unveiled a new iPhone Tuesday capable of connecting to a much faster 5G cellular network, which investors are betting will spur strong demand. Chief Executive Tim Cook stood at the company's Cupertino, Calif., headquarters to begin the webcast, streamed on Apple's website—a visual reminder of how the tech giant's latest flagship-product introduction differs from previous ones because of the coronavirus pandemic, which closed businesses and left people sheltering at home around the world for much of this year. The iPhone 12 offered a new physical appearance from last year's smartphone, moving from a rounded design to a flatter-edged look reminiscent of the iPhone 4. Apple revealed four versions of the phones ranging in sizes and starting in price from $699 for the iPhone 12 Mini with a 5.4-inch display. The iPhone 12 Pro Max has a 6.7-inch display, an increase from 6.5 inches; the higher-end versions emphasize the camera abilities. The newest iPhone designs move away from the rounded shape of recent models toward a flatter-edged look akin to the iPhone 4. The iPhone 12 Pro and Pro Max, unveiled Tuesday. PHOTO: APPLE The greatest hype going into the event, however, has been about the device's 5G capability. Apple's adoption of the next-generation wireless standard places intense focus on the new technology that has been years in the making. Cellular network carriers have been scrambling to roll out 5G service across the U.S., but coverage remains spotty in the country and it isn't clear yet whether customers will want it. WSJ NEWSLETTER Notes on the News The news of the week in context, with Tyler Blint-Welsh. Enter your email SIGN UP "Today is the beginning of a new era for iPhone," Mr. Cook said. Shares slipped as the event took place, which has occurred with previous Apple events, before rebounding. With few people familiar with the new cellular service, Mr. Cook made an effort to describe why 5G technology would improve their experience. He cited improved downloads and uploads, higher-quality video streaming, better gaming and less network congestion. Apple also highlighted the integration with the company's new A14 Bionic microchip. The presentation included demonstrations of how 5G iPhones could be helpful in downloading important medical images and for remotely designing factory spaces—tacit acknowledgments that some of the most likely customers for the technology might be business users who can benefit from faster connections. How Apple Became the World's Most Valuable Publicly Traded Company YOU MAY ALSO LIKE UP NEXT How Apple Became the World's Most Valuable Publicly Traded Company How Apple Became the World's Most Valuable Publicly Traded Company Apple reached a staggering $2 trillion market valuation in August, despite years of doubt from critics over whether the tech giant could continue to succeed after the death of Steve Jobs. Here's a look at Apple's rise to the very top. Illustration: Jacob Reynolds/WSJ "Apple almost provides like the Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval," Mark Vena, a senior analyst for Moor Insights & Strategy said. "They tend to validate the technology, which is unfair because you could go out today and buy a Samsung phone" with 5G. The emphasis on the guts of the iPhone marked a change from recent years where many new features involved cameras and other iterative updates. The lack of dramatic change has come as the smartphone market has matured more than a decade after Apple first introduced the iPhone. The latest smartphone arrives five years after iPhone unit sales peaked. Mr. Cook has pushed the company to sell pricier versions of the device and to rely on software services and wearables, such as smartwatches and headphones, to boost revenue. In a nod to those efforts, the company began its Tuesday event by introducing an updated HomePod that is smaller than its previous version of the speaker and is priced at $99. Apple unveiled a new, smaller HomePod than its previous version of the speaker. PHOTO: APPLE Apple began selling the HomePod in early 2018 after unspecified delays pushed back the rollout following its 2017 debut. The voice-activated device was Apple's attempt to catch up with the success of Amazon.com Inc. and its smart speakers in late 2014, though when the HomePod debuted at $349 it was considerably more expensive than its rivals. To make the case for a pricier offering, Apple has previously emphasized its sound quality, especially when it comes to music. The device's price has fallen since it first went on the market. The iPhone 12 has been hotly anticipated by investors who have driven up the company's shares 69% in 2020, partly because of excitement over the new phone. Those expectations and Apple's success in driving up services revenue helped it become the first U.S. public company to eclipse $2 trillion in market value earlier this year. Analysts surveyed by FactSet, on average, predict iPhone revenue will rise 15% to $160 billion in the fiscal year that began Oct. 1. That is about $6 billion shy of the record set in fiscal 2018, when the $1,000 iPhone X helped bolster sales even as shipments failed to reach a new high. Katy Huberty, a veteran Apple analyst for Morgan Stanley, last week predicted the company could ship as many as 240 million iPhones this year, helped by customers who haven't upgraded in several years and excitement for 5G. That would set a record, beating the 231 million devices sold in fiscal 2015. Sales at that level could send the company's shares up 37% from Monday's close to a market value of almost $2.9 trillion, she said. "We expect this fall's launch to be the most significant iPhone event in years," she wrote in a note to investors. SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS What new products or updates are you hoping to see from Apple? Join the conversation below. In recent years, Mr. Cook has been stretching the iPhone lineup to appeal to an array of pocketbooks. That was on display again Tuesday: A step up from the iPhone 12 Mini sits the iPhone 12, starting at $799 with a 6.1-inch display. On the higher end, the iPhone 12 Pro starts at $999, with the Pro Max offering the largest display and beginning at $1,099. The iPhone 12 and 12 Pro are available for pre-order on Friday, and the iPhone 12 Mini and iPhone 12 Pro Max will be available Nov. 6, Apple said. Some analysts are skeptical that customers will flock to a 5G phone without a must-have application or service to help them see the appeal of the new technology. U.S. cellular networks are still being upgraded, and service might be disappointing in some spots for early adopters. It is also uncertain how the coronavirus will affect sales of the new devices. The pandemic delayed production of the flagship phone earlier this year, which led Tuesday's unveiling to be rescheduled from its traditional September date. Mr. Cook appeared publicly for the first time since a Democratic-led House subcommittee last week issued a report claiming Apple uses its control over software on its devices in an anticompetitive manner. Apple has rejected the report's conclusions and said it doesn't have a dominant market share in any area. [link] [comments]  |
| Honest Comparison: Bonds vs Bourbon Posted: 13 Oct 2020 03:34 PM PDT I recently ran across an article asking how much one should spend on a bourbon for a friend and the quality to expect. Of course they went into the cost comparison of buying new vs aged. Initial cost new: ~$150 Value after 20 years aged: ~$2000 With this return in mind, I would imagine some sort of comparison could be done on the efficiency of investing in bonds or investing in bourbons (or any other similar form of alcohol). Something else to consider is the safety of each respective investment. I am not particularly well versed on how to perform the math on this, or where to gather current bond info. Is anyone up for the task? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 13 Oct 2020 10:47 PM PDT Based off of proprietary algorithm (similar to what hedge funds use). Here are some swing plays: AAL-SHORT CCL-SHORT WMT-LONG WMT is more of a longer term play where as CCL/AAL are shorter term plays. Even fundamentally WMT is a strong stock to buy with so many advancements in the company. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 13 Oct 2020 10:58 AM PDT I strongly believe cybersecurity is only gonna keep growing with 5g, cloud and in general data infrastructure constanly developing. Since cyber attacks and hacking already has been issues for both major corporations but also for governments, the demand should increase in a data centric world. My problem is I am not sure where to start. When reading about a company I dont understand all the technicical terminology relating to coding, programming and computer science. So hoping for some inspiration on what others are investing in and why. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 13 Oct 2020 09:30 AM PDT The CBOE equity put/call ratio is trending extremely low right now. Its below .40 for the week so far, which indicates a high level of complacency. We're still early in the week and this may turn around. If you look at the chart (link below), I'm referring to the indicator with the yellow columns. This is where we bottom-out on the P/C. The only times this happened in 2020 were followed by some level of a sell off. First in Jan. and then in June. The sept. correction did not drop below the .40 level, but if you look at the chart, it rode the line for the weeks leading up to it. I'm not bearish, or trying to scare anyone, just pointing out an interesting signal that we don't see very often. The actual charts appear much more bullish in my opinion. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 13 Oct 2020 12:03 PM PDT I find bond indentures and loan CAs very hard to wrap my head around. I mean I can extract the key terms from a document in terms of filling out a legal review template my firm is using but if you ask me what the weaknesses are in this particular credit, I'm often at loss. Is there any book or material out there that walks through the key clauses one by one, attaches significance to each and provides a structural guidance on the overall strength of the legal protection? [link] [comments]  |
| Thoughts on Kiromic BioPharma IPO? Posted: 13 Oct 2020 11:10 AM PDT Set to IPO on October 16th. They planned on doing their IPO a year ago but decided to wait until now. You can buy shares now for $12-14. Thoughts? Think it's a good idea to get in due to the overall desire for pharma stocks? Or do you think it's overvalued and will drop? In general what are your opinions on this new IPO in the BioPharma industry? Do you plan on getting it or no, and why? [link] [comments]  |
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